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The Latest Parabolic Chart - GM Channel Stuffing

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Uh, what is going on here? Is GM trying to stuff its dealers with so many vehicles it makes the AAPL parabolic chart appear flat as a pancake?

And somehow GM misses street expectations of a 19% Y/Y increase in March sales, posting an 11% increase to 231,052 total GM vehicles. Total GM sales in February were 209,306. In other words, net of the 46K cars "stuffed", GM would have posted a sequential decline in sales?

Source

 

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Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:43 | 2312890 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Go Gubment Motors, GO!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:45 | 2312897 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Woot!  Channel stuffing, bitchez!

If they can take inventory to 1 million plus units, imagine the demand for GM cars that will be generated by those full lots. /sarc

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:50 | 2312925 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And with gas demand plunging and prices skyrocketing, HOLD ON for broke retail to surge in any minute and buy up all the Volt inventory for $45,000 a pop! Oh, its surely a GREAT DAY in amerika uber alles!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:00 | 2312978 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Rising gas prices and record auto inventories seem like such a winning combination. I'd almost be bearish on GM if they weren't back by the full faith and credit of... Oh yeah.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:02 | 2312987 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

They are waiting for the boom once this recovery takes hold.... y'know, green shoots... /snark

ori

feminine-social-engineering

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 10:27 | 2557717 kall
kall's picture

Good point! This is not the happiest time for the American auto industry. If you check some car donations statistics you'd be surprised to see how much the number in these parks has grown, a lot of people cannot cope anymore with the high gas prices. Apparently the auto makers don't seem to be aware of that...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:54 | 2312933 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

The lot I saw last weekend was so overflowing with cars and trucks it was ridiculous. Time to bail them out. Don't worry, they'll pay us back with printed helicopter money.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:55 | 2312953 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Yep- dealers in my area (Orlando) are renting lots to shuffle off inventory-

No doubt, this will be spun by the talking heads as a "boom to the commercial real estate market"

Idjits.......

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:44 | 2313170 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

The otherwise empty local bowling alleys and strip malls are happy for their business.

Because, as we all know, the world needs more new vehicles to sit around and depreciate!

If the sheeple do not yet understand the concept of mal-investment, they'll be hard pressed to avoid observing this waste.

Then again, it will likely be spun as "growth."

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:58 | 2313211 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

most comercial real estate bag holders only have halloween to look forward to.  At least that pays the tax bill.  Perhaps.  This, and we have more retail space coming from Best Buy

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:13 | 2313820 gloogle
gloogle's picture

The dead mall here has tons of new cars on its lots.  The only new cars I see being driven around here are Kias and Hyundais.

 

But we visited B-I-L in D.C. a couple of weeks ago, and BAM!  Could not believe all the new Lexi, Infinitis, BMWs and Benzes.  Holla for the tax dolla, y'all!!!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:46 | 2313396 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

tarsubil

The lot I saw last weekend was so overflowing with cars and trucks it was ridiculous. Time to bail them out. Don't worry, they'll pay us back with printed helicopter money.

 

comment

Typical advertisement in paper from one dealer says thousands to choose from. In previous years, a typical dealer would have 300 or so cars that would be a months supply. Local walmart parking lot now has part of parking lot sectioned offed and some dealer's cars are now there.

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:15 | 2313279 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

FYI, NYT reports average credit scores of car buyers are now at an all time low, but they are being given loans anyway.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:04 | 2313768 gloogle
gloogle's picture

WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG???

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 13:39 | 2313659 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Imagine the demand for more parking places on those lots.  This may be the answer to the CRE problem.  The goobermint will just lease all that vacant space to store the taxpayers' many new cars.  Win-win!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:06 | 2313782 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Funny, they shut down the Hammantrack plant because Volt inventory was building up - yet last month they got record sales of it and a few others, mostly other high gas mileage cars.  I dig the reflexive GM-hate that's going on here, but really - if they were channel stuffing to excess every month as reported here, dealers wouldn't have room on their lots for more.  Except, duh, they do have plenty of room, those cars are getting sold.  Pretty hard to find a last year's model still new out there.

Obviously it never occurred to anyone here that the serious threat of going out of business for real, and losing all their jobs for real, caused GM to at least temporarily stop "resting on their laurels" and make some kick ass cars, at least for now.  Try a Camaro SS if you like hot rods.  I liked mine, but traded it in for a Volt, which is a better car for me, sitting there charged up on solar power in my driveway - nice cost of operation.  The Cruze I bought while waiting for the Volt, to have something economical to drive (Camaro fun, but hardly cheap) - nice car too, though obviously a total econo-box as cheap as it could be made.  Still kicked ass over everything else in the price range, and you know what?  Dealer bought it back, cash, for not much less than I paid for it - 6 months later.  They're having trouble keeping enough on the lot, and they sold mine, at a profit - 2 days later.  But oops, positive facts aren't welcome here, I forgot.

But then, ZH has predicted 127 of the last two recessions!  Way to go boys!  All I have to do is Stolper y'all and I make money.

You all laughed at Warren when he bought 15 bil of BAC at 5 ish.  Now it's what, 9.49?  Yeah, totally stupid move, Warren.

Look, we all know where this is going to lead, so the stopped clock bullshit isn't worth so much anymore.  It'd be a lot more useful to have a better feel for WHEN, which ZH always says " a few more days" - eg wrong for the last few years, every single time.

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:46 | 2314009 prole
prole's picture

Now we know who's getting some of that GM bail out money.

Which you probably promptly parlayed into the purchase of a new Beamer.

The Trabant commercials on TV are equally annoying as your pro-Trabi post.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 20:39 | 2315120 Mr. Lucky
Mr. Lucky's picture

My 2006 car is my favorite color; paid for.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:43 | 2312894 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

GM is preparing for Obumbo's new "Hoodies for Cars" rebate program, which happens to be hidden in plain sight in the ObumboCare bill.... 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:56 | 2312956 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

40 acres and a Volt. Reparations BiTcHeZ!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:10 | 2313803 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Got mine - both.  And solar power, and food and ammo and guns and beans and bullion and water and two cars with under 10k miles between them and-and-and.

And a shop, a farm, tools to make more stuff as required.  Even EMP proof electronics.

http://www.coultersmithing.com/

 

Even if the S don't hit the fan, it's a more fun way to live than as a cube-slave in a city.  Not a hard decision at all, in hindsight.  Like Kyle said "just give me the gold" and move on.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:02 | 2312986 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

Your satire isn't far off the mark. GM has been channel stuffing, FOR MONTHS, with ALLY/GMAC buying 450 score credit criminals on new cars, FOR MONTHS, to boost Obama's economic output numbers, like those being hailed in the mainstream media today. (Remember when that SAME media said numbers like these were "Anemic!" in 2007/08?)

 

Isn't Fascism wunnerful? Using your own tax money, BY THE BILLIONS, to create election propaganda. Orwell was correct in his predictions, you know. He was just predicted this 30 years early.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:29 | 2313112 zuuma
zuuma's picture

Well said!

And don't forget that from each, UAW-produced car, Obummer gets a big kickback for his re-election/shush fund from all those union dues.

Sweeeet!

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:13 | 2313823 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Yup, even though the Unions (which I happen to hate) took big cuts "or else" - and sold the major stake they wound up with in GM stock at a loss, because they couldn't play their bullshit game of "it's all managements fault" when they WERE management for a little while there.

 

So, the D's take care of the medical insurance biz and unions, and the R's take care of big oil - they both take care of everyone else, if the bribes, er, campaign contributions tell you anything.  I kind of like the idea put up here a while back where the politicians should wear stickers advertising their sponsors.  But they'd have to be even fatter to have room for them all.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:45 | 2312901 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Just wondering from other ZH reader's...do you see many new cars driving around? Pre 08 it seems like all I saw was drive out tags. Now I rarely see any and if I do they are usually on a used vehicle. I drive an 05 and have no plans to buy another vehicle any time soon.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:49 | 2312920 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Taking very good care of my 07 Infiniti, and hoping it will run until I am forced to dig my savings up out of the backyard and escape to Belize.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:00 | 2314076 prole
prole's picture

To answer Vincent- I live under the dark gaze of Mordor, so you see plenty of Neo Cars around these parts. In the Maryland suburbs it's Beamers Benzes Lot of Hyundai new Sonatas (even the non-rich buying these). Soccer mom and dads huge SUV war vehicles.  Lot of American cars being bought (NOT) all driven as semi-undercover police speed trap cars. I try to stay out of DC to avoid the gunfire, so I don't know about what you see there, but in the choicer parts of NOVA (Northern Virginia, adjacent to Mordor) you have never seen so many Porsche 4-doors, almost any trip through you will see some manner of "exotic cars" Either a Ferrari Lambo or one of those Acura or Nissan? Whatever sports car.

(Forgot to mention Maserati, honorable mention the random Maserati)

Point- Northern Virginia lot of wealth being flaunted on 4 wheels

Full Disclosure- I'm guilty too in my modest little way!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 16:27 | 2314497 paulbain
paulbain's picture

Prole wrote:

--------------------------------------

Point- Northern Virginia [has a] lot of wealth being flaunted on 4 wheels.

--------------------------------------

 

I am inclined to agree. I live in Northern Virginia, too, and I see plenty of conspicuous consumption here.

BTW, when Prole writes of "Mordor," he means "the District of Columbia." 

-- Paul D. Bain

paulbain@PObox.com

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:51 | 2312934 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I saw some guy in a Range Rover delivering pizzas.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:55 | 2312951 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

a guy driving a newer model BMW delivered my pizza last fri.  i didnt tip him. 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:58 | 2312968 ffart
ffart's picture

Are you black?

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:04 | 2312998 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

ffart

 

I logged in just to give you an up-tick

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:10 | 2313029 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

Wow!  What a jerk!  You didn't tip the guy that is out working, doing his job, just because of his ride? 

I'm guessing the next pizza you order from that place comes with spit, no extra charge.

 

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:54 | 2313200 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

dick.....

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:00 | 2313220 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

You realize it was probably the owners car or a borrowed car from a family member just to make a little money off of tips and delivery

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:22 | 2313300 Blythes Master
Blythes Master's picture

Not to worry folks, non tippers get 'special' ingredients the next time around.

Keep that in mind the next time you even think about stiffing the pizza guy.

Disc: Former pizza guy in charge of the 'special' ingredient section.

Word.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 13:45 | 2313686 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Jesse Jackson, is that you? Oh yeah, I forgot, he aded his ingrediants at a country club, if my feeble memory is correct...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 13:02 | 2313481 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Time is changing very fast. Last summer at a yard sale lady of the house told me she is selling stuff just to put food on the table. People should help each others if possible.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:44 | 2313394 Freddie
Freddie's picture

You must live near me.  Papa Johns?  The slightly smaller one - the Discovery.  I would guess a 2002 or older. Not the real small one.  Dark green or something? 

They get absolutely sh**ty gas mileage too.  A neighbor's daughter bought one years ago.  She was horrified because it got about 10 mpg avg.  I could not believe it.  She got rid of it,

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:52 | 2312938 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

I see tons of new Chevys driving around everywhere.   funny thing is though, every one of them has government plates.   Your tax dollars at work! re-electing obama.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:58 | 2312969 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure, most all of the sales are govt fleet purchases. This is nothing but fascist communism. Except in communism the people benefit, at least a bit, so this is actually worse than communism because govt is just saying 'Go fuk yourself' to the people.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:10 | 2313025 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

It would be interesting to see a chart of fleet sales to govt and GE etc....  chevy vs. ford etc...    I would think Ford fleet sales have taken a decline against chevy fleet sales to govt and GE type govt crony companies.

 

GM should take a few hundred billion and buy up all the remaining car rental companies.  instant new car sales!  Obama can do a cash for rental clunkers deal to pay them for the old cars.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:47 | 2313407 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Ford also is getting a lot less cop car sales anymore.  Lots of crappy Chrysler cop cars.  Chrysler's stuff just falls apart.  

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:06 | 2313011 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

I live in North Dakota and everyone has a new pickup that does 10 miles to the gallon the best is the new dodge diesel if you leave it to idle for more than 15 min you void the warranty , the 2500 dodge diesel gets on average 7 to the gallon , I have a 87 GMC 6.2 diesel and it gets on average 21 mpg , but who cares I should buy a new one and get rid of the old POS , and now with ALLEY finance is a breeze. Finally I can do my bit for the oil companys, and the economy

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:11 | 2313036 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

NoDak is an anomaly w/ the oil industry boom.  People actually have jobs drilling on private property.  obummer trying to take credit for it.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:21 | 2313071 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

I am about 6 hours away from the oil boom , but I was talking to a welder who works there he was making over 20,000 a month and they cannot get the people to work up there he said the "come buckets" are making 2-6000 a night , the money up there is unbelevable.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 13:34 | 2313623 delacroix
delacroix's picture

bullshit on the 20 mpg 6.2 v-8 gm diesel, and bullshit on the 7 mpg 6cyl dodge cummins diesel.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:59 | 2314373 Kayman
Kayman's picture

"bullshit on the 20 mpg 6.2 v-8 gm diesel, and bullshit on the 7 mpg 6cyl dodge cummins diesel."

Too true. GM V8 diesel, probably the worst engine ever built.  Cummins diesel, easily 16mpg, depending on how you drive, and transmission etc, you can get 20mpg.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:54 | 2312943 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

I notice a lot more cheaper new cars, if at all. Mostly Kia, Toyota Prius, or anything else that's a cheaper/money saving vehicle. Hell, we traded a civic in for a Prius because of the incentive they offered back in early February. I expect to see a lot of men riding their bikes to work this summer.

As a side note, I am baffled at how many cars I still see on the road. Living in a town with a University full of 8,000 students (50% commuters), there is no way these kids aren't putting their gas purchases on credit cards, be it their own or mommy & daddy's. Inflation is rearing it's ugly head, and it will only get worse.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:58 | 2312970 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Funny you should mention bikes...I bought one about 6 weeks ago and have been riding it to work. I'm 54 yrs old and it's about 15 miles round trip. I bought it mainly for exercise but when gas goes to $6, 7, 8...i will ride more often than i currently do.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:05 | 2313002 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

Well, Obama's CHU did say we needed gas prices more like Europe.

 

Only your elected Democrat masters need gas-guzzling cars, anyway, since they are just so much more equalz than you are. Happy pedaling, Prol!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 13:16 | 2313517 Belarusian Bull
Belarusian Bull's picture

They say, in economics, when supply is bigger then demand, prices should fall. Does this work for crony companies in US?

I sold my car after i noticed, that almost all my friends own one. Since then, i:

1)Never pay any related bills.

2)Always get a free ride (when going out with somebody)

3)Can drink at parties

4)Keep myself fit at summer(bike!)

5)Feel like a lifehacker BOSS.

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:31 | 2313123 Iam Rich
Iam Rich's picture

Did a double take, saw a Porche SUV yesterday...forget the model name...Cheyenne or such.  Wow.  Who'd buy such a vehicle from Porche?  Convertible 911...YES.  SUV...you've got some money to burn.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:26 | 2313307 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Come to S.E. Florida and you will see numerous Porsche Cayennes as well as large numbers of the BMW Stupid Ugly Venicles. Range Rovers, too. Indeed, there almost seem to be more Mercedes, Audis, BMWs and Lexuses (:exi?) on the roads than Chevys or Fords. Of course, with all the Stupid Ugly Vehicles (SUVs) and Stupid Light Utility Trucks (can I say it? SLUTs) on the streets it's hard to see much from my passenger car. Maybe only those who can afford the high-priced luxury cars can afford the gas. Not as many Hummers are seen any more, though.

And by the way, the Cayenne with the turbo motor is one fun vehicle and isn't as ugly as the Porsche sedan.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:36 | 2313349 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Dupe post - sorry.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:34 | 2313350 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I see lots of Obam voters in Chryslers and GMs.  The sh*t no one else will buy.   Also govt cars plus cop cars.  All Chrysler and GM.  Some of his voters also like Nissan Altimas.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:15 | 2313837 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

I'm seeing a fair number of new cars these days.  I suspect the cycles are in different phase different places, because not long ago, the roads were full of real nasty beaters, and people just couldn't wait any longer.  Cash for Clunkers flat KILLED all the used car dealers around here, so there aren't many options anymore.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:46 | 2312905 ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

By my back of the hand calculations, they have more than 90 days of inventory stuffed at dealers.  It is obvious that they don't want to lay off any of those government workers prior to the election.  There will be a whole lot of incentives come summer to move that inventory,  dealers here in the midwest are stuffed with trucks.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:12 | 2313042 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

I went pased a dealer in a place called Carrington the populatoin is about 1700 ish and the GMC dealer had at a quick count 125 units , most of them were stored on a empty lot away from the dealer, and the truck had just turned up with another 7. 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:46 | 2312907 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Soon, you will have the option of taking your gubmint welfare support in Chevys instead of dollars.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:48 | 2313184 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

They're gonna setup a lottery, just you watch.

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:16 | 2313838 gloogle
gloogle's picture

IT'S A BRAND NEW CAR!!!

#LetsMakeADeal

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:47 | 2312909 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

Stuffing helps paving companies expand dealer lots. Jobs for every body and a new GM in every driveway

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:50 | 2312924 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Shovel ready, no less!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:43 | 2313388 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

And if your domicile is a phat black Escalade parked in the adjacent WalMart lot, bully for you.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:48 | 2312914 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Bring out the GM trolls! GM is most amazing glorious project of American People's Republic!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:17 | 2313848 gloogle
gloogle's picture

Es verdad!

#CheWasHere

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:51 | 2312929 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Opening paragraph from CNBC:

U.S. auto sales continued at a robust pace in March, boosted by consumers with more confidence in a recovering economy who want to buy fuel-efficient cars and trucks in the face of rising gasoline prices.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go vomit.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:02 | 2312992 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, good thing basically no one watches CNBC anymore with their highest rated show having about 20,000 viewers. Im sure HFT bots have a direct plug-in to CNBC headlines though.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:25 | 2313092 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

I laugh at CNBS 8 person split screen discussions.   7 of 8 are CNBS talking heads, the other might be a market participant.   LOL.   They fucking interview each other now.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:30 | 2313117 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

I didn't know they had 20,000 viewers left total.  They must run some infomercials late night that are a big draw

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:30 | 2313335 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

+1 for the Avatar Bud..   #winning

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:48 | 2313411 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

+1 to you sir for pink slime.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:19 | 2313857 gloogle
gloogle's picture

Pink Slime??!!  I thought it was a bloody stool...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 23:15 | 2315359 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

They're the same..  ;)

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:05 | 2313001 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Proof that those with degrees in creative writing can still find jobs in America.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:21 | 2313072 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

@mayhem_korner

Thanks for taking one for the team.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:24 | 2313086 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

No one who really puts pencil to paper buys a new "more fuel efficient vehicle" to save money. At the end of year one you've lost 5-10 thousand in depreciation, that buys alot of gasoline.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 13:20 | 2313567 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

It will probably work out for me. Based on the trade-in I got for my 4 year old civic, and the incentive I got on my new Prius, I will probably be the winner. I expect only higher gas prices moving forward, so the extra 20mpg I'm getting will repay me very quickly.

For the record, I only lost 4k in four years on my civic.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:20 | 2313869 gloogle
gloogle's picture

Well, the key word here is "Civic".  That doesn't translate into anything made by the UAW...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:26 | 2313888 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Looking even more like that for me and my Volt, actually.  Now, for those with calculators, I did spend an additional 10k on solar gear so as to be able to charge it "free", sometimes more than once a day.  And when the car is charged, I now have plenty of extra power to run the welders, lathes, computers, etc around my lab, and never need to run a gasoline backup generator for that anymore.

This is an investment.  All investments have some risk.  But this is low risk - those solar panels will go for another 30 years (longer than my life expectancy).  The ones I had already are at 85% output - and are 30 years old already, look like lasting forever.  I've not paid a power bill in over 30 years now, the original system (far more expensive back then) has paid for itself more than twice.

Now I'm there with gasoline - not from 20 mpg to 40, which is nice enough, but from any to needing NONE AT ALL, EVER.  For the rest of my life.  Sure, there's a time -value of money involved, but...what other investment could I have made that was as sure a thing, and locked in as much value almost no matter what goes down when TSHTF?

My buddy who bought a Prius a couple years back thinks it's going to be a net win monetarily even if gasoline doesn't go up further, but it will take a couple more years.  Turns out they don't eat their batteries as was feared, they last nicely.

Everyone should know that you don't buy a new car to save money.  You buy it to have a new car.  With the Volt, good luck finding a used one - no one wants to sell theirs.  The few 2011's that have sold have gone for near MSRP sticker!  People who own them get real attached to them it seems, they are indeed very nice, not the econo car that most electrics or hybrids are, but luxury all the way.

In a couple years, there will be plenty, as a lot of them were leased by people who couldn't otherwise max out the tax credit like I could - they'll be out there used then.

Early adopters never make the money, but are necessary - someone's gotta buy the new ones for the rest to get a good deal later.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:09 | 2314114 prole
prole's picture

Lol did you get the solar gear from Solyndra? I heard they were doing almost as well as Trabant you pioneer you.

Full Disclosure- You are a pioneer at exploiting the system to your benefit. I salut you for that. And the "early adapters" that was pretty funny. Keep up the "good work."

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 16:13 | 2314444 Kayman
Kayman's picture

The only thing faster than the speed of gravity is depreciation on a GM vehicle.

And 30 year warranties are generally given out by companies that have been in business for 1 year or have lawyered up the warranty. Like roofing, you MAY be entitled to  1/30 of your original purchase price net of inflation; ie. zero.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:51 | 2312932 Deep79
Deep79's picture

Folks this is how empires end, the lies, bullshit being spewd that everything is allright

Anyone with a half a brain knows everything is not alright, this is gonna end in diaster

It could be tommorrow, next week, next month, hell 2-3 years from now, but make no mistake, this will end very badly. That I have no doubt.

The market is broke beyond belief and the sad thing is that most people know it too, just look at volumes. Everday up is not normal. How long they can keep this up, your guess is as good as mine, but dont get fooled.

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:55 | 2312942 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right when its 100% certain that disaster is coming, doesnt really matter what the timeline is, and no one knows anyway it could be a year from now or tomorrow, no one knows shit about timing a timeline. 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:25 | 2313090 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

The distortion brought on by ZIRP will be talked about for decades. 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:52 | 2313187 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I think you mean silenced for decades.

All Hail the Memory Hole!

Besides, it's going to be scripted as Marx's prediction of the "inevitable collapse of capitalism."

Never mind the murder weapon d.b.a. "The Federal Reserve."

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:53 | 2312940 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

The Government make shit people don't want and refusing to adjust.  Shocker!

 

I can confirm the dealers in NJ do need more Suburbans.  I just bought one and each dealer I went to had less than three on the lot. (for those people in the mid-west, in NJ we have at least 10 GM/GMAC/Cadilac dealers within 25 miles)

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:27 | 2313105 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

yep, volts arent good bug out vehicles.   Suburbans can fit a family and plenty of gear to GTFO.  I'd get a diesel if available.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:28 | 2313327 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Plus, you can live in one when your house is lost to foreclosure.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:32 | 2313934 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

You've already lost if you live where you need to bug out from, in my opinion.  But that's why the Volt has a gas tank too.  Mine holds plenty, but then I don't have a big family.  I have a truck too just in case, but the key here - I already live in the place most would love to bug out to - I'm there already.  Think about that one, hard if you don't want to find yourself part of the zombie apocalypse and be one of the targets we pre-buggers are shooting at to defend our homesteads from the hordes.

You might think you're smart living in a dense city so you can better (in your opinion, not mine) pick up pennies in front of the steamroller we all know is coming.  Screw that, my cost of living is under 1/4th of city life, for the same stuff - food's cheap in farm country as are land prices and used cars and so forth.  And it's not that hard to telecommute and make nearly as much money as in a city job, that is, if you actually deserve the money and aren't just scraping by hoping not to be laid off as an incompetent drag on your employer.

Take the plunge - it's the really important part of prep, not the gold.  And the kicker is - the life is far better NOW, no matter what happens down the road.  I "got to" quit kissing all ass in any form 35 years ago as a result of doing it myself.  That's gotta be worth something.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:53 | 2312941 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

This is an economics laboratory. Dealers have inventory coming out of their ears but somehow this never seems to translate into cost savings for the buyer. The "deals" available at the dealership are all financing incentives!

This is why the Austrian school rules. They are the only guys who understand the disasterous consequences of interest rates manipulation.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:54 | 2312947 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

I know, Uncle Sham can give away a GM car in lieu of a tax return. There, problem solved.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:55 | 2312948 HD
HD's picture

Inventory Reduction Sale! All new Chevy Volts $19.95 or best offer. Add premium floor mats and AM/FM radio for $24,000.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:21 | 2313297 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

But wait, there's more!

Call within the next ten minutes, and we'll send you a second Volt, free!

Just pay the small $68,000 processing and handling fee, and we'll get the second Volt sent to you at no charge!

Operators are standing by at 1-800-BEND OVER....

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 13:29 | 2313601 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hah. How about 68,000 $ in fees but a 2nd Volt "with" no charge?

ori

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:35 | 2313947 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

I know a ton of people who would take that offer in a heartbeat.  Particularly in Canada, where they are having serious shortages of Volts (gas is 5.38/gal there).

http://gm-volt.com/forum/index.php

Click the "what's new" button to find a ton of fanboys so hardcore as to make Apple blush.

Or go with the ZH fabrications of reality if you prefer.  I like truth myself.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 16:23 | 2314478 Kayman
Kayman's picture

I think you are confusing "shorting" of Volts with shortage of Volts. Hell, there has been such a shortage of Volts that GM shut the plant down.

And geez, Canadar is so far away. Like ya got ta paddle across the river from Detroit, even.

Maybe ya could buy up some of them Volts and smuggle them inta Canadar, and make some flippin' money.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:56 | 2312957 fuu
fuu's picture

<waiting for Max Fischer>

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:05 | 2313005 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

Indeed. We simpletons are waiting with bated breath for our resident "Citizen of the World" to enlighten us.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:12 | 2314131 prole
prole's picture

You have obviously been skipping over "DCFUsors" posts.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 17:12 | 2314614 fuu
fuu's picture

He's not even close.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:57 | 2312964 Rainman
Rainman's picture

It's not like the NEW GM IPO didn't warn everybody ....." internal controls are deficient ". They just can't help themselves. 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:58 | 2312966 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Bullish

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:58 | 2312971 sangell
sangell's picture

Ally Bank will find a way to move those cars. Refi you underwater house and get a free car or some such deal.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:08 | 2313019 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

Hey, what does ALLY/Fuhrer Bank care about getting PAID for these cars? It's not they aren't going to reach in to YOUR pocket when they default.

And what's a few trillion in taxpayer money, compared to THE GLORY of re-electing the Messiah Obama!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:30 | 2313115 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

show your 'vote for obama' voting booth receipt and get 0% financing on a new chevy!

AND chevy will throw in a free solyndra panel

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:00 | 2312977 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

GM = gullible muppets?

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:01 | 2312981 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Misses Street Expectations has a faintly whorish aspect, as does "stuffed."

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:00 | 2312982 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

The Ministry of Truth is releasing stories from various Internet News sources that auto sales are the bright spot in the U.S. economy.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:04 | 2312999 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture
GM hourly workers get $4,000 bonuses

 

http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2011/02/gm_hourly_workers_ge...

 

Gub'ment very generous with taxpayer money.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:04 | 2313004 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

Three month inventory and growing is clearly unsustainable in a slowing economy. Tyler, is there similar information on other manufacturers? Clearly GM is channel stuffing, and the taxpayer is footing the bill. How go the other brands?

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:43 | 2313390 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

GM is getting ready for "buy one, get one free" campaign.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:06 | 2313009 Fred123
Fred123's picture

0bama is gonna put quotas on cars that can be sold in the US. Affirmative Action in the auto space...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:32 | 2313126 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

If those "unelected" SCOTUS uphold obamacare mandate.   Soon we'll have a Chevy mandate.  Buy a chevy or the IRS will fine you.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:09 | 2313022 ILikeBoats
ILikeBoats's picture

Wonder for how long you could get financed at 0%, courtesy of the Fed.  IF you got financed for a long enough term, inflation would mean you got a decent discount on the vehicle.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:51 | 2313428 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Most ALLY 0% is at least 60 months, but I've seen the trucks going for 0% for 72 months.

 

If the economy ain't fucked up and bullshit by 2018 (72 months from now), then that would be fucked up and bullshit.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:11 | 2313034 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

is there a similar chart for ipad channel stuffing?

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:15 | 2313050 surf0766
surf0766's picture

so now is a good time to be a buyer..

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:23 | 2313084 itsallalie
itsallalie's picture

this is vey poor analysis. In Nov '09, auto sales were at the lowest level since 1982. On an annualized basis, auto sales are up about 40% from that level, and are expected to be up double digit this year as well.  You don't look at absolute levels of inventory, you look at days of inventory on hand.  On that basis, the channels look fine.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:29 | 2313099 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OH right sales are 'expected' to double, uh huh, just like they expect retail to come surging into the equity markets any minute now on a panic buying spree here near all-time highs.....yea sure theres lots of expectations, most of them totaly insane.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:41 | 2313158 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

this is vey poor analysis. In Nov '09, auto sales were at the lowest level since 1982. On an annualized basis, auto sales are up about 40% from that level, and are expected to be up double digit this year as well.

You can give Mr. Birinyi his ruler back.  The Bernank has saved the world.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:30 | 2313924 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Is your name Pete the repeat?

Troll infection - just keep on repeating the hopeium

Your post is just so much MSM drivel!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:46 | 2313180 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

You do recall what happened in the summer of 2009, right? Here's a reminder: GM chopped off more than 50% of its production, courtesy of Obama's "bailout" and in the process Steve Rattner raped contract law and GM bondholders. And tada: fresh start GM.

Which means any comparison to 1982 is absolutely meaningless.

And no, based on days of inventory, it does not look fine. In fact, it looks like, oops, GM is dumping excess inventory on dealer lots. Aka channel stuffing.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 18:35 | 2314834 itsallalie
itsallalie's picture

Well, that would apply to any company that declares bankruptcy-a fresh start. Shame on the bondholders and equity holders who couldn't do basic cash flow analysis to realize GM would never outrun their liabilities. GM made more profit than in it's 110 year history last year, and the inventory levels on a forward sales basis look just fine by historical standards.  If they are truly stuffing the channels, then you are saying that auto sales are going to fall off a cliff.  That's a different argument, and one that may well hold up if gas prices go to $5 or higher. If that happens, then there will be "channel stuffing" across most industries as consumer demand turns down and companies are left with inventories that are too high.  

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:00 | 2313218 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Riiiiight, Sally-  "the channels look fine"-  pay no attention to the bloated dealer lots, let alone what GM is parking themselves in their Detroit lots...

Which channels are you talking about?   English?  HBO?  ESPN?

"Annualized"?   Who the fuck uses an annualized basis on cars?   That's why they report month-to-month.......

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 18:40 | 2314850 itsallalie
itsallalie's picture

Well Biff, I guess you're the analysis genius here--to put it in your brilliant dialect: "Who the fuck uses monthly sales to stock their inventory?"  Even Toyota isn't that good.  To put it in basic economics for you, Biff, automakers, and most industrials for that matter, set inventory levels based on annual expected sales, adjusted for seasonal monthly changes. I'm also curious about these "bloated" lots.  How many dealers have you been to Biff? I live in one of the largest cities in the country and when I've driven by the dealers in our region I haven't seen "bloated lots."  Thanks for the insight though.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:01 | 2313221 fuu
fuu's picture

Hi Max.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:24 | 2313089 monopoly
monopoly's picture

The facade continues. Stuff the dealers. Scream about small increases, call downturns in data "unexpected" or little has changed and the march moves on. Back in the day we used to buy a new car and truck every 3 years or so. Well about 5 years ago that stopped. We are keeping our 1 car and 1 truck for at least another 5 years. No need to spend, when we can buy gold instead and have something of value. The car dealerships here now write us letters advising it is time to trade in our "old" vehicle for a new one.

And even the checkers at Walmart get what is going on. And they are the front line for food inflation. Will probably just continue on till after the election. But at some point. Look out.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:29 | 2313110 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, of course any miss or downturn is just an unexpected anomoly and just deleted from reality, in fact counted as good and priced in higher. 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:40 | 2313119 ekm
ekm's picture

 

Primary Dealers stuffed with BAC and eath other shares have become like the bus in themovie Speed with Keany Reeves and Sandra Bullock. If they don't keep speeding up, the bus will explode.

Same with Primary Dealers, if they don't keep buying the stock farce market will collapse 2000 dow points in one day since there are no suckers.

If you remember, in the movie, the bus exploded. No other options are available.

Same thing for GM. They will have to  produce (equal to primary dealer's buying stocks) until they're stuck like primary dealers. Now, what would be a similar schenario: Two for One GMs compared to Twof for One BAC stocks?

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:30 | 2313120 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Seems the 'ministration needs to keep GM sales growing at a faster clip than food stamps.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:34 | 2313139 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

GM/Ally does take obamastamps as a down payment.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:33 | 2313129 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Maybe DHS bought a bunch of vehicles to haul around those 450 million rounds of .40 rounds they recently purchased.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:33 | 2313131 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Those cars are Level III assets...so there good.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:35 | 2313140 riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

Buiild now hope they sell later. The new America.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:46 | 2313177 stickyfingers
stickyfingers's picture

See the USA in your Chevrolet?

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:47 | 2313182 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

And we wonder why AAPL is worth more than the entire retail sector.  Apple is the only company that can still sell at retail prices. Everyone else has to either discount everything to move it or do like GM and make inventory disappear through magic

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:49 | 2313185 cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

the invesntory build of 40k a month can't last.

http://www.cnhedge.com/
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:06 | 2313237 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

It only has to last through election day.

As Obama told the Russians, he'll have a LOT more flexibility after the election.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:14 | 2313273 farmerjohn2112
farmerjohn2112's picture

The Amerikan sheeple like the shiny new cars... makes them feel good, like everything's going to be just fine.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:52 | 2313405 cdude
cdude's picture

In a recent vist to my local Ford dealer's part department, found it difficult to find a place to park. Reason for this was because the lot was absolutly stuffed with inventory. Row after row of cars lined up with about a foot between. Out of curiosity, began visiting other dealer's only to find same.  

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 13:14 | 2313546 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Aside from GM, does anyone fathom why HOG's stock is at its present level? Of all the absolutely unneeded expensive toys, their product must be in the top 1%.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 13:27 | 2313571 Northeaster
Northeaster's picture

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785812000014/gm2011...

Note 9. Equipment on Operating Leases, net

Mark-to-Unicorn (Level 3):

(In Millions)

Period July 10, 2009 through December 31, 2009  - $543-567

Year ended December 31, 2010 - $537-668

Year ended December 31, 2011 - $200-922

Prediction for December 31, 2012 - Either another bailout or $1-1000

That my friends is the wonderful world of FASB-157.


Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:24 | 2314221 prole
prole's picture

While on the subject of cars I just like to get a shout out for CARMAX. Awesome business model. If you want to compare capitalism with Socialism just do business with CARMAX anytime before or after you get your semi-annual raping from the DMV. The contrast is staggering. It's like a different breed of human they find to inhabit their space.

Just walk into a carmax. I walk into a carmax wearing grubby clothes crazy hair and anyone can tell I'm not too bright just to look at me ... doesn't matter, carmax greets me like I'm Donald Trump walking in .. Next time I fully expect to get a big hug walking in

Walk into the DMV you are lucky to only be humiliated and robbed, more likely you'll be shot.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 16:08 | 2314418 Hondo
Hondo's picture

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 16:09 | 2332568 RacerX
RacerX's picture

It's the AMWAY model: I sell soap to you, then you sell it to me. We BOTH make money!!

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