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Latest Press: JPMorgan Loss As Large As $9 Billion

Tyler Durden's picture


We have long said that the maximum potential loss of the JPM CIO trade based on the blow out in IG9 10 year (and associated trades complex), which has about a $200 million DV01, is far beyond not only the $2 billion that Jamie Dimon estimated on May 10, but above our own estimate which was $5 billion on that same day. Today, the NYT "according to people who have been briefed on the situation" which translated means just more media propaganda because all the news on the topic in the past month has been leaks by axed parties, says that 'Losses on JPMorgan Chase’s bungled trade could total as much as $9 billion, far exceeding earlier public estimates, according to people who have been briefed on the situation." Also according to the NYT, and roundly refuting what the other leak had told Bloomberg and other media outlets, "The bank’s exit from its money-losing trade is happening faster than many expected. JPMorgan previously said it hoped to clear its position by early next year; now it is already out of more than half of the trade and may be completely free this year." Obviously, this refutes media "reports" also based on "people familiar" or "conflicted sources" that JPM has unwound its trade, either by novating, or by transferring it over to helpful hedge funds. Bottom line: take everything with a grain of salt until Dimon himself gives an update in two weeks, as this could easily be an upper bound loss estimate starwman to set expectations very low, sending the stock soaring when the "final" announce loss comes in at ~$5 billion, courtesy of other well-known "masking" techniques such as loan loss reserve release and DVA benefits.


As JPMorgan has moved rapidly to unwind the position — its most volatile assets in particular — internal models at the bank have recently projected losses of as much as $9 billion. In April, the bank generated an internal report that showed that the losses, assuming worst-case conditions, could reach $8 billion to $9 billion, according to a person who reviewed the report.


With much of the most volatile slice of the position sold, however, regulators are unsure how deep the reported losses will eventually be. Some expect that the red ink will not exceed $6 billion to $7 billion.


Nonetheless, the sharply higher loss totals will feed a debate over how strictly large financial institutions should be regulated and whether some of the behemoth banks are capitalizing on their status as too big to fail to make risky trades.


JPMorgan plans to disclose part of the total losses on the soured bet on July 13, when it reports second-quarter earnings. Despite the loss, the bank has said it will be solidly profitable for the quarter — no small achievement given that nervous markets and weak economies have sapped Wall Street’s main businesses. To put the size of the loss in perspective, JPMorgan logged a first-quarter profit of $5.4 billion.


More than profits are at stake. The growing fallout from the bank’s bad bet threatens to undercut the credibility of Mr. Dimon, who has been fighting major regulatory changes that could curtail the kind of risk-taking that led to the trading losses. The bank chief was considered a deft manager of risk after steering JPMorgan through the financial crisis in far better shape than its rivals.


“Essentially, JPMorgan has been operating a hedge fund with federal insured deposits within a bank,” said Mark Williams, a professor of finance at Boston University, who also served as a Federal Reserve bank examiner.


A spokesman for the bank declined to comment.

In other words: the world's largest prop trading deks, with a $200 million DV01, as Zero Hedge readers have now known for just under two months.


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Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:13 | 2567664 ghengis86
ghengis86's picture

Suck it Jamie, you smarmy piece of shit!

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:16 | 2567670 CPL
CPL's picture

Tick tock tick tock.


Times up.  Pencils down.  Get some popcorn.  The show will be starting soon.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:24 | 2567694 popcorn is fresh
popcorn is fresh's picture

and seasoned :-)

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:31 | 2567709 Firing Pin
Firing Pin's picture

Couldn't happen to a nicer group of banker dirtbags.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:24 | 2567839 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Fuck a 4.5% asset loss, that one had to hurt.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 09:18 | 2567986 veyron
veyron's picture

Damn I called 10B on the ZH chat when it came out ... Off by a billion :(

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 10:01 | 2568163 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

.......don't speak too soon.............

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 10:09 | 2568212 Matt
Matt's picture

is that a typo in the source article, or did JPM move the earnings report from Thursday the 12th to Friday the 13th?

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 10:37 | 2568504 lineskis
lineskis's picture

If JPM goes Spanish, it will soon be an 18B loss...

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 12:23 | 2569167 SILVERGEDDON

There is no asset losses here. These are not the asset losses you are looking for. Move along. Klingon cocksucker bankers from Uranus are God. They can do no wrong. Until SHTF. THEN, I RECKON SOME RECKONING WILL BE DONE. The Hamptons will be Ground Zero for the Hunger Games. 

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:32 | 2567711 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Have we counted in Blythe's silver losses.......or does that come later?


Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:39 | 2567727 CPL
CPL's picture

If it's ever admitted Silver goes to $500 and gold hits $30k.  Same day.


Of course paper money won't even be an option at that point.  Who would accept it except central banks?  Pocket lint would have more value.


Of course it won't be admitted, it will be ignored until it becomes a math problem that can no longer be contained with lies.  All those derivatives storm out of the gates from their tended pens and flood the world with all the debt.  Nothing built on fiat faith will be standing by the end of it.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:49 | 2567906 exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

I've been thinking a lot about the eventual silver suppression release. I'm not entirely convinced that we will see outrageous numbers, and if we do it will be temporary due to normalcy bias. Sure, it will be a higher plateau, but the pop won't be permanent and certainly won't destroy paper money overnight. Fiat will eventually destroy itself due to it's nature, rather than from an outside influence.

My reasoning is that all the evidence is already there about the paper market shenanigans thanks to the work of folks like ZH and GATA. Multi-year investigation in silver is a big tell as well. There is also the EXTREME apathy of just about everyone I talk to. Only one person ever invested in Au or Ag in all the years I've been talking about it to all my loved ones. People just don't understand money, including a lot of bankers I've known.

Bottom line, if it gets reported in the MSM at all, there might be a bit of a pop that will be pushed down again.

The only things IMHO that can push PMs to that level:

1) Time - managed melt-up we have been seeing
2) The Fed finally discovers a transfer mechanism (by design or by accident) that transmits some non-trivial percentage of the money sloshing around into the pockets of the masses. However, that is more along the lines of fiat destroying itself with Au and Ag gains as a side effect.
3) Loss of confidence in paper markets, but that is not likely to happen due to who is left playing in them. Again, price increases are a side effect.

I stack when my limited means allows (stupid coin shop on an island and my leaky boat!), but I am not buying to become overlord in a Mad Max world. It is simple, has resulted in some nice gains, and is not something that can be taken from me with a few punches of the keyboard. Although if Mad Max happens I've totally got dibs on the midget with the pigs.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 09:18 | 2567984 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

The most important thing for the dollar these days seems to be the management of perception. The fall should be pandemonium. People will be jumping out of windows.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:24 | 2567840 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Seems like every few days, it moves up a Billion or 2. I guess when you get to that point whats an extra $500 million or so.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:32 | 2567859 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



A billion here....a billioni there.....pretty soon you're talking about real money.


If you lose too much just get a damn bailout.


Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:37 | 2567721 bdc63
bdc63's picture

Excuse me if I don't hold my breath ... I already fell for this once with Corzine.  Jamie will come out of this smelling like a rose ...

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 09:53 | 2568133 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

What difference does it make?  As per BS bernanke fed policy, all JPM has to do is belly up to the discount window for a potentially infinite amount of 0.75% loans and plow it into guaranteed government bonds carry trades.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 09:26 | 2568012 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

when this first became public I called $12B for a reason. Watch this newest claim of $9B go up by at least $3B more. 100% guaranteed.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:36 | 2567719 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

He may have to pawn the cufflinks

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:49 | 2567755 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



He may have to relocate to France and hang with his buddy Jon.


Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:56 | 2567764 SheepRevolution
SheepRevolution's picture

10! 10!  Give me a 10!

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:41 | 2567732 Apathetic or Wh...
Apathetic or Whatever's picture

It makes no difference how much $ is lost, JD will remain untainted. Much like the rays of the sun shining on a pile of shit.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:43 | 2567738 imamonkey
imamonkey's picture

doesn't suck - he gets sucked ...

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:46 | 2567749 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Winning, Tiger Blood. 

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:14 | 2567668 cossack55
cossack55's picture

The NHT (New Hades Times) states that Hell is creating a special "9th Circle" just for Jamie, Lloyd, Hank and a few others.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:33 | 2567707 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture



PLEASE !! He will get away Scott Free with the help of the crooked Congressmen he had bought and paid for.

Dimon, all the Corporate Executives and everyone of the traders need to be tired for TREASON against the United States.  THAT will put an end to all this shit these fuckers have brought to our country.  THEY ARE TRAITORS and more dangerous to the USA than any AlQuad crap.  Any the government agencies and Congressmen who have allowed this to go on for the last ten years should be tried as accessories to the facts.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:44 | 2567889 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

anyone who witnessed the organized fellatio performed by congress knows Jamie is a made man

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:38 | 2567723 Firing Pin
Firing Pin's picture

Whaaaa???? I thought Lloyd was doing God's work..??? 

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:40 | 2567731 CPL
CPL's picture

Doesn't that depend on whom you worship in one's own tenants of faith?

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:35 | 2567864 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

So's the Pope and many of his guys.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:15 | 2567669 game theory
game theory's picture

...from The Matrix:


Agent Smith: Damn it.
Agent Brown: The trace was completed.
Agent Jones: We have their position.
Agent Brown: The sentinels are standing by.
Agent Jones: Order the strike.
Agent Smith: They're not out yet.


Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:16 | 2567671 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Nice job ZH. You guys are awesome.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:39 | 2567728 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture



You bet !!!!!  Tyler and gang are ther only real heros left in this pathetic muppet show of finance and government.


Tyler, thanks for that story the other day where this slimy MS was moving the deritives from HoldCo to MS bank where the taxpayers can, once again, stand by and get fleeced while playing with their Iphone.  I sent that link to many people and NOT ONE FUCKING reply, not one.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:36 | 2567866 buckethead
buckethead's picture

No shit.... Tyler said it would be exponentially larger than advertized, and although my understanding of the machinations is nil, I expect to see that number steadily increase. (Simply based on the predictive history of ZH)

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:16 | 2567672 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

I'm sure this is an isolated case...

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:16 | 2567673 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

Oh dear, I hope they're not forced to close their positions in gold and silver to cover that.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:39 | 2567726 bdc63
bdc63's picture

They are not allowed to close that position until the FED tells them to ...

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:49 | 2567740 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture



Thanks to the Executive Directive by President George Bush ( which has yet to expire or be recinded) not one of the TBTF banks has to cover any SHORT no matter how underwater they are....As a matter of National Security".  Then you have the master of deciet buying welles fago soon after like some nice daddy-war-bucks.

How do you like those apples!

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:38 | 2567873 buckethead
buckethead's picture

Interesting.... could you direct me to the documentation of this executive order?

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 10:35 | 2568044 hangemhigh
hangemhigh's picture


could you direct me to the documentation of this executive order

(Kirby/GoldSeek article contains entry from Federal REgister)

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 13:55 | 2569987 buckethead
buckethead's picture

Thank You.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:18 | 2567674 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture


Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:16 | 2567675 koaj
koaj's picture

as the great nelson munz would say "Ha Ha"

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:19 | 2567677 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Tyler great job..especially your chart on JPM change in VAR last week..with foretold the loss

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:19 | 2567678 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

They'll still be profitable? No doubt the loan loss reserves will be reduced to negative this FQ.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:20 | 2567680 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Ok, so if they're now admitting $9 billion, read $36 billion in reality.

Which is why they couldn't do the buy back scheme.

My heart bleeds Dimon.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:21 | 2567682 matterhornclimber
matterhornclimber's picture

What are the regulatory commissions in the US doing the whole day'I guess licking the of the crooked

banksters and setting up new regulatory measurements for individual investors onl

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:05 | 2567784 marriedgeordie
marriedgeordie's picture

what the heck would you expect, when everyone at those commissions dreams of working for one of those banks someday.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:22 | 2567685 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I am guessing these traders all read zh because JPM has cut it's loss in half already this mroning. They probably are frontrunning Tylers low expectations prediction.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:24 | 2567692 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Tyler you keep calling this a "trade". No no no it was a "hedge". A hedge dammit.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:29 | 2567699 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

<--Hedge That!-------

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:30 | 2567702 saturn
saturn's picture

Doesn't that make JP Margin a hedge fund?

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 10:03 | 2568175 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture, the FDIC doesn't insure the investors in them.......

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:30 | 2567703 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

"Jamie's got a gun" up his ass (with a 9 billion buck trigger). 

Good thing he's one of the smartest bankers we have (says Odrama) snark

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:50 | 2567758 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

smart banker....isn't that an oxymoron.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:30 | 2567704 DrDinkus
DrDinkus's picture

what else can one say at this point? z hedge should be part of the curriculum in every educational institution in this country...unfortunately bernanke will be hitting cleanup for the yankees before that happens

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:31 | 2567710 chebetts
chebetts's picture

I love news aimed at making losses look small. You have to wonder, in this globalized storm of centrally organized chaos, who owns the AP and Reuters and all those other "independent" news sources.

Also, the only thing I would "buy" is something physical, like a torpedo tent that can be submerssed in water and withstand anything.

And if you buy a gold bar, then what? Keep it in the bank? Safety deposit box? Bury it in the yard? Melt it into coins so India can buy them?

I think the only way out of this "organized" mess is to drop the system of belief that holds us in this mental slavery.

Listen to Bob and relax....

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:34 | 2567712 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

And there are probably about 5 more giant money losing trades just like it that JPM was not forced to admit to yet.  Jamie Dimon is a liar and he is still lying.

But 0% free money loans mean this welfare turd boat of an institution, captained by the Tidy Bowl Man of banks, is unsinkable...until someone lays on the flusher.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:36 | 2567716 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture



     I thought there was just one roach here.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:36 | 2567715 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

If everyone would default on their JPMChase credit cards then Chase could collect the default rate of interest at 29%, instead of 6%. See? Problem solved.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:36 | 2567717 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Now it gets interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if Jamie Dimon is going to get Madoff'ed now. These losses probably have hurt powerful people and not just the 401k sheep.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:45 | 2567747 CPL
CPL's picture

The Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Henry Ford are nothing to those with real power.  The useful eaters are likened to ants if reading through history.  Think Michelangelo, Edison or Tesla was anything but a pet to these people.  The current situation is no different. 


With power, you don't need money.  Just the will power to finish a commitment.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:00 | 2567770 Lebensphilosoph
Lebensphilosoph's picture

How does one obtain power without money?

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 09:01 | 2567939 DOT
DOT's picture


Do it.

You have power.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:18 | 2567824 imamonkey
imamonkey's picture

I like this comment - who are these powerful people? I'm assuming the house of Rotchchild for starters?

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:39 | 2567724 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Chump change. One key entry on a computer and the whole thing goes away. Have you heard of mark to model that was approved by our government? The real question is why this is on the front burner at all. There must be serious monsters hiding behind the corporate walls.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:41 | 2567737 CPL
CPL's picture

Just look up total world wide derivatives and that's the answer.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:40 | 2567733 imamonkey
imamonkey's picture

Get that price per share up over $45 & we'll forget all about it ... did something happen? I've forgotten ...

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:41 | 2567736 SDRII
SDRII's picture

What are the chances the Fed appraoched Boaz with an offer too good to refuse...


Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:43 | 2567739 Firing Pin
Firing Pin's picture

Within 1 week in prison Jamie will have created derivatives on cigarettes and the notional value of all cigarettes in the prison will easily exceed $3 trillion dollars. A random cell-search (the "black swan event") will crash the market and create losses for his Nicotine Division that are so large the governor of the state will have to bail out the prison and shift the losses onto the backs of the state's taxpayers. 

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:04 | 2567782 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

And Jamie Dimon will lose another 3 trillion dollars the same way he loses all his money.  I guess he will have to find some way to pay back all those cigarettes in prison.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 09:41 | 2568085 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

>>>>And Jamie Dimon will lose another 3 trillion dollars the same way he loses all his money.  


The way he loses OPM. There, fixed.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:43 | 2567744 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Privitize the big banks.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:53 | 2567761 twocents
twocents's picture

What a surprise!

Guys, off topic but have you seen this?

Cyber attack siphons off millions from banks.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 07:54 | 2567763 youngman
youngman's picture

From 2 billion to 9 that is material don´t ya say??????

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:01 | 2567772 Lebensphilosoph
Lebensphilosoph's picture

What's a few billion here or there?

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:01 | 2567766 RECISION
RECISION's picture

Ain't Spin a wonderous thing...

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:06 | 2567788 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

manangement of perception = econ

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:16 | 2567816 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

time for jpm to reach deep into its cookie jar of secret trader reserve profits to cover up the actual size of the loss

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:22 | 2567831 q99x2
q99x2's picture

2012 the year to implode your corporation and make money on the downside.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:28 | 2567847 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I hear the loss can reach as high as 30 billion.

Dick Bove: "Sounds like a buy to me!"

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:47 | 2567898 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Well.we know that it at least 18 billion then.

Ps ....Fuck you Dimon.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:49 | 2567907 falak pema
falak pema's picture

So are Barclays and JPM twin towers; and if so who is bin laden, is it the market or the sword of regulatory nemesis hidden in the folds of derivative cloud scam audits? Are the bloodhounds who looked the other way and clapped before now obliged to come scent the bloody trail of past mayhem?

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 09:23 | 2567951 Socialized Losses
Socialized Losses's picture

Tyler the point you made here:

"take everything with a grain of salt until Dimon himself gives an update in two weeks, as this could easily be an upper bound loss estimate strawman to set expectations very low"

is the way to read these contradictory, anonymous, carefully planted, & orchestrated news leaks.  Lets remember JD has an ego, he's the bankers golden boy.  He is not going to let himself loose face on this stupid loss. In fact it looks like he's going to spin it to make himself look better.

The game plan:

Mea Cupla: Stage press conference and cry a mea culpa for the $2B loss.  An amount so small (relative to JPM) that they'd have swept those losses throughout the books and never put JD in a position to loose face over the debacle. If $2B was the actual amount.

Frog Marched:  JD allows himself to be frog marched in front of his congressional vassals live on CSPuN to answer softball questions, and hand out checks.  He soothes his vassals concerns with the promise that JPM will be “solidly profitable” in Q2. Translation "those checks are gonna clear".

Misdirection: Fill the news with a bunch of red herring provided by anonymous but reliable insiders.  Mind you the insiders are the same bankers & traders we all trust so much /sarc.

The Situation: JD promises Q2 profitability.  Rumors are all over the place about the trade/hedge/investment. Today we get the clincher.  "Oh hell the loss is $9B, sell sell sell!!"

The Math: Lets estimate JPM Q2 profit (pre whale loss) to be $5.4B (same as Q1 p just for arguments sake). Now lets add in the rumors -$9B. Finally we add in the JD volatility factor. We get

$5.4B - $9B + JDs “solidly profitable”statement > $0

The only way this works is if that $9B is much less.

Anticipation: In the mean time the mkt gets left twisting in the rumor mill wind &  expectations drop.  The bar of performance gets lowered.

Redemption: Then on July 13 JD gets to save the world with a surprise to the upside Q2 report. The loss was only $4B not $9B, thank god, catastrophe averted. Slaps on the back, "atta boy"'s, and cigars all around as we hoist JD on our shoulders and parade down Wall Street.

And that is how JD is going to change a loss to a gain. The bankers golden boy will be back and untarnished in a couple weeks. Hip Hip Hooray?


Thu, 06/28/2012 - 10:28 | 2568409 Matt
Matt's picture

Accounting tricks. The losses will be applied retroactively to some quarter(s) from a year or two ago, or spread over future quarters, or both, rather than taken as a lump sum loss in a single quarter. As a result, my Aug 18 $30 puts are not going to make me any money.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 09:18 | 2567990 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Maybe Jamie Dimon is the one who need to held in contempt of Congress.   GD crook.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 10:07 | 2568188 markar
markar's picture

and that $9 bil is leveraged how much?

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 12:20 | 2569421 EverythingEviL
EverythingEviL's picture

Yahoo Finance has a story titled, "4 Reasons why JP Morgans Potential 9 Billion Dollar Loss is Bullish"  Are people still swallowing this bullshit?  Fucking incredible

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 12:28 | 2569491 ghostcommander
ghostcommander's picture

So, Does Dimon still consider himself one of the "best and brightest" on Wall St?

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