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LaVorgna 'Guesses' 3 Standard Deviations Above More Confident Consensus For Non-Farm Payrolls
Tomorrow's much-watch-moment, aside from NI HEADS on the Bloomberg Terminal for every second-by-second market-ramping/crushing headline from Europe, is the non-farm payroll print. With a median estimate of +95k across the 91 'economists' that Bloomberg keeps an eye on, we did notice that the dispersion is considerably lower than normal. Not one 'expert' sees a drop in payrolls with Sean Incremona (4Cast) and Pierre-Livier Beffy (Exane) at the low-end with +50k and everyone's favorite talking-head, Joe LaVorgna of Deutsche, topping us out at +150k. At almost 3 standard deviations above consensus, Joe is going for the home-run as we note the last time he was this 'positive', back in May/June 2011, NFP missed expectations dramatically - printing below the lowest estimate.
The last time Jovial Joe was the at the upper-end of estimates didn't work out so well for him (or the US economy) and with confidence seemingly very high - given the relatively narrow dispersion between high and low estimates - what could possibly go wrong?
Goldman Sachs are around 1 standard deviation below consensus at +75k and Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw is just over 1 standard deviation above consensus at +125k.
One final thing we noticed while looking at the NFP time series, is the ever-decreasing absolute change in the NFP change from month-to-month of this naturally noisy time series. In the 1940s and 50s, the change in the change was quite volatile (red), from the 1960s through the 90s, it began to calm down (orange), and since 2000, the change in the change in NFP has been downright muted with only one exceptional print more than 2 standard deviations away from long-run means. It's almost as if someone was smoothing the series to avoid scary outliers?
Charts: Bloomberg
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how can someone with a batting average below .150 still be playing in the major leagues??
He is great at the press conferences... always promoting his team.
The well-known John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics website (www.shadowstats.com) has got a ton of information about how these US government statistics are created, the assumptions used and changed as well as in some cases gross manipulations.
Easy, you blow the stats guy. Or whatever. It's not who you know it's who you.......well you know the rest.
With his record it's almost a mortal lock that we'll see an extremely low if not negative print.
I wish I could justify the expense of a Bloomberg Terminal... you can do some really cool shit with it.
Eh. They're better for back trading and making pretty graphs than anything else. An analyst's "tool". It won't make you trade better.
Its not someone smoothing the series, its that capitalism has finally hit its stride
Right in time for exhaustion
come on people, that was funny
October is a 'good' month for the birth/death adjustment.
"trick or treating" is work.
Wouldn't the world be a much better place if we were all as happy as Joe? He must actually be grateful to be alive.
he's probably happier than a swine in excrement that db continues to pay his exorbitant salary after so many bad calls. i know i would be.
If it's good it's good. But then again if it's bad it's good.
Case in point last month:
- After subtracting out Verizon workers returning from strike, only 58k jobs. This is LESS than the growth in the labor force.
- Manufacturing jobs LOST.
- U6 up 0.2%
An outright bad report. Yet the bitch on Bloomberg's nipples were hard all fucking day over that report. She had to ask every guest what they thought of the "good" employment numbers and how isn't it proof all is well. At one point I literally thought she was going to have sex with the report on air.
laVorgna & corzine in 2012!
Maybe because he's been such a good rah-rah boy for the team, they tipped him off to the numbers
to make him look good.
And watch the weasel be right once, not as if the markets are looking for any whif of good news to shoot even higher, fasten your seatbelts, tomorrow is going to be bumpy anyway...
And here I thought these data points didn't matter anymore. I'm starting to believe this financial engineering has some merit. Should all just blow over in a decade or two.
When your employer was bankrupt, BUT has been bailed out by the Fed Gov't (taxpayer $$), and you still are collecting your $22k/mth, before $500k bonus.....you betcha will be promoting optimism.
I mean c'mon.... Joe ain't stoopid.
Joey L. - him just a little guy
LaVorgna is a total douchebag shill for Deutsche bank spewing as much propaganda as he can. Why ever comment on anything he says?
The sad part is real people are out of work! The price of energy is the key. Unemployment won't lower dramatically until the Obama Administration's anti fossil fuel stance ends. Yes it is that simple.
In the 1940s and 50s, the change in the change was quite volatile (red), from the 1960s through the 90s, it began to calm down (orange), and since 2000, the change in the change in NFP has been downright muted with only one exceptional print more than 2 standard deviations away from long-run means.
Funny how it should be the other way around since there's more people today than in the 40s.
"It's almost as if someone was smoothing the series to avoid scary outliers?"
Dude, it's called seasonal adjustment.