Just because credit agency downgrade risk uncertainty is not enough, FAZ now advises there is electoral risk to add to the mix. Because if Sarkozy were to lose the presidential election, his competitor, the socialist-backed Francois Hollande has said that he would not accept the decisions of the Euro-summit, and will try to renegotiate the outcome, in effect unwinding any "progress" made so far in stabilizing the European currency. "Should he win the presidential elections, France would not ratify the treaty. "If I am elected President of the Republic, I will negotiating a new agreement," Hollande announced on the radio station RTL." Why is this concerning? Because as a recent poll indicates Hollande has a commanding lead over Sarkozy as of mid-November. "The proportion of French voters who have confidence in Sarkozy to deal effectively with the country’s problems expanded to 40 percent, according to the poll published in the French newspaper today. While Socialist Francois Hollande topped popularity ratings in the poll, he lost 5 points in the period. About 51 percent of voters said they had a “positive image” of Hollande." In other words, it is likely to quite likely that Sarko will not be reelected. Which also means that suddenly all bets are off for Europe.
Hollande refused to recognize the need for a constitutionally anchored debt brake, the so-called golden rule. He would undertake if elected "from the French and from our European partners" to fiscal discipline. "We can have as many golden rules in as many countries as we want to decide if we do not create growth, our goals are not met," said Hollande.
President Nicolas Sarkozy, meanwhile, tried to convince his compatriots that had been reached with the Brussels decisions an "undeniable democratic progress." In an interview with the newspaper "Le Monde" Sarkozy campaigned for the new "authentic" economic government ("gouvernance économique") of the democratically elected Heads of State and Government of the euro member states. "It is a different Europe, in the making," said Sarkozy.
It is a Europe of the euro zone, where the convergence of the economies, the fiscal rules and fiscal policies are the guiding principles. Give the Franco-German relationship, there is no alternative, the president said. "Shall we stay alone? Who can believe, an isolated France could defend his ideas better? Or you want me to propose another alliance? But which one? "Said Sarkozy. Chancellor Angela Merkel had acted with "intelligence and pragmatism", praised the president.
By then, however, it will hardly matter, since the French AAA rating will be a long-lost distant memory...