This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Lightning Hits Again: Latest Anti-Stolper EURUSD Fade Closed Out With 317 Pips Profit In Two Weeks
Just as certain as death and taxes, fading Goldman's FX "Strategist" has once again made everyone rich. Back on January 6 when the 0.000-batting FX guru said "With considerable downside risk in the short term, within our regular 3-month forecasting horizon, the key questions are about the speed and magnitude of the initial sell-off. If we had to publish forecasts on a 1- and 2-month horizon, we could see EUR/$ reach 1.20. In other words, we expect the EUR/$ sell-off to continue for now as risk premia have to rise initially." To which our response, naturally was: "In yet other words, if there is a clearer signal to go tactically long the EURUSD we do not know what it may be. We would set the initial target at 1.30 on the pair." Needless to say, following Stolper's recommendation, the EUR barely dipped further, and as of this morning has soared above 1.3000, helped not least of all by the record EUR IMM shorts we have been highlighting for weeks. With this, we now close our latest fade-Stolper trade at a profit of 317 pips. This is the 8th out of 8 closed and profitable "anti-Stolper" trades posted on Zero Hedge.
And speaking of fading Goldman, it has honestly become a joke how much abuse the firm's remaining clients are forced to take. Below, straight from the octopus' mouth, is the performance of the firm's top 6 trades for 2012, less than a month into the year:
The recommendations were opened on 30 November 2011 unless stated.
1. Close protection on the iTraxx Europe Xover Index, opened at 759bp, for a potential loss of 3.4%.
2. Close short 10-yr German Bunds, opened at 2.28%, for a potential loss of 3.5%.
3. Stay long EUR/CHF, opened at 1.226, with a target of 1.35 and a stop below 1.20, now at 1.21.
4. Stay long Canadian Equities (S&P TSX) vs. Japanese Equities (Nikkei), FX unhedged, opened at 100, with a target of 120 and a stop below 90, now at 98.8.
5. Stay long a Global Rebalancing Basket (CNY, MYR vs. GBP, USD), opened at 100, with a target of 107 and a stop below 98, now at 102.1.
6. Stay long July 2012 ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures, opened at 107.8, with a target of 120 and a lowered stop below 95, now at 109.2.
Summary: 5 out of 6 trades losing, with 2 already stopped out. The once feared and respected firm has become a laughable shadow of its former self.
»
- 5529 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Its nice to have consistent idiots to bet against, thanks for pointing them out Tyler.
How much does one get paid for being consistently wrong? I believe I have excellent credentials for a such a position.
Given my trading record for the past few months, I am clearly perfect for the daily task of failing to understand markets.
Everyone loves a good clown show...
"This is the 8th out of 8 closed and profitable "anti-Stolper" trades posted on Zero Hedge."
LOL
I love this serial "calling out" of that shill
Makes sense. I have been writing euro puts based on Spada Capital's research for a week now already. Kill the dollar!
'The once feared and respected firm has become a laughable shadow of its former self.'
In their defense they always add "Just kidding" at the end of these reports.
Lagarde didn't give anyone the warm fuzzies. Need more money
Once is happenstance, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action. Eight times is taking the piss.
Okay seriously. How does that guy keep a job?
I wish Stolper also made PM and oil trade recommendations. We need a 100% certain guiding light there as well.
speculation against manipulation is the order of the day, how are these fools keeping this train wreck goin? we must be in recovery again... like this recovery
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bJGPyY16cA&feature=plcp&context=C3d35948...
... BS recovery inspired by ZH'ers , thanks guys, EC.
"Stolpherized" " The act of trading off Goldmans Stolpher FX calls and suffering immediate loss of hundreds of pips" . ZH could start a glossary for newbs to the site with all the terms they have originated.
Someday "I got Stolphlered" will be something to analysts calls as "Googled" is to looking something up.
Hilarious.
"Summary: 5 out of 6 trades losing, with 2 already stopped out. The once feared and respected firm has become a laughable shadow of its former self."
Before we draw any conclusions, let's see what the prop side made screwing their clients. Every transactions needs a buyer and seller, and GS gets its clients on one side and its prop desk takes the other.
Too err is human, to Stolp-err divine.
Not really fair it should have tanked, 1.30 is crazy as is this market. Whatever should happen is supposed to happen based on research experience and common sense does not. Mentally it is hard to bed against what you know is right, but that is the play.
`Investor Kyle Bass discloses his discussion with a senior Obama admin about how this economic crisis is going to play out."
Full video:
http://www.webcompact.net/index.php/news/7186-obama-admin-we-are-going-to-kill-the-us-dollar
I would think that after the congressional inquisition into GS led by Carl "shitty deal" Levin, nobody will take the same side of a GS trade recommendation for the next 5 years, esp. those made by the infamous Thomas Stolper--may he never get fired.
Jersey Shore was on at the same time. Lots of sheeple missed it.
Mmmmm....Anti-Tilson-Stolper Pair and Carry Trade with Eurodollar ozzumsauze.
In a mad speculative market this eternal see-saw between vulture funds and central bank plays will make momentarily A or B winners in these derivative bets, as its a zero sum game. But the true losers are the real economy as the bubble mind set has corrupted all the BIG players now obssessed by Casino Royale plays on an increasngly ongoing and desperate basis. The non commercial plays are ever increasing on the derivatives market and thats the killer. Law of diminishing returns makes capital mobilisation to these sterile plays more and more counter productive to save debt mountain. Worse, the systemic risks increase as the collapse of one domino, part of a fat tail of market curve becomes more and more real.
Lagarde of IMF wants to avoid systemic risk as she screams for more liquidity fire power, fearing for Italy/Spain solvency collapse. Merkel says NEIN as usual. She is now convinced that the FED will ALWAYS step up to the plate to save the Ponzi even if Germany balks. SHe now has both the GS/FED central cabal by the short hairs in trying to sustain WS levitation as she does the Vulture funds trying to burn the Euro zone. Now if the Euro shorts burn and Greece solves its interim of interim, interminable cliff hanger problem there will be blood on HF shirts. Can kicking will then go on into 2013. At the expense of Sheeple world wide and of Euro austerity zone victims, shirtless and anaemic out of work young plebians like those desperate Greek doctors all leaving home. We are in this spiral, and the SYstem D economy, as the WS ponzi, earn money for the same suspects : the offshore culprits of NWO capitalism.
It becomes urgent to burn down this construct. One way or the other. It will either collapse under its own momentum in uncontrolled mega deflation or it will groove along in constant can kicking with the USA posting run away off balance sheet debts and deficits like nobody since Rome went viral. 24 T M2 planned...Happy landings for us sheeple is getting as risky as bringing Apollo 13 back to earth from mad orbital. "Houston we now have a problem"...
As far as I can remember last week Stolper stated that above 1.2880 short covering. So no not 300+ pips in this case. In fact, you would have gone short EURUSD if you traded against stolper consistantly what means you would be in minus by now since 1.2880 has passed. Will find the ZH link....
As was explicitly noted, that was not a Stolper recommenation, but one from the firm's sales desk, which is actually in the same flow as clients.
And here is the link from ZH it self.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-confirms-smart-money-now-offloading-retail-sees-12880-eurusd-short-covering-threshold
Which apparently you did not read:
you guys dont get it..
its Jewish firm.. you're supposed to read from right to left...
try it. all forecasts make sense :))
ALX
if you believe in using sped line you would end the trade today, I will also add the tlt, is now at the top of te descending channell
Hey Tyler, what about an HFT quote stuffing update?
Believe me when I say this that last weekend Thu, I had a one hour session with Stolper himself over lunch at a conference in Dubai where Barton Biggs, Leon Black, Dr. Zbigniew Brzezenski, Brent Scowcroft also presented. Surprisingly, I liked Biggs presentation as he was quite negative on world growth due to high debt situation and the imploding Eurozone crisis beside the Middle Eastern 'Arab Spring' and the high oil prices.
During my chat with him, Stolper mentioned EUR going to 1.20 and default of Greece as highly unlikely though I disagreed on the Greece default with him.
Although he mentioned he has met various finance ministry officials from France, Italy and across Eurozone. I noted that he is a German who has studied in France works in London and travels to NY frequently.
He did not answer when I asked why Greece will not default. Do they know something we don't?
KNOW... ARE YOU KIDDIDNG ME ?
they dont need to know,, they write the rules..
alx
That guy must absolutely despise this web site. I wonder how many hits ZH gets from the GS domains. Would love to see the server logs. But, then again they're probably not dumb enough to hit ZH from their work network.