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Lights Out For The US Economy As Its Biggest Cheerleader Hangs Up The Towel
When Deutsche Bank's Joey perma-LaWronga finally gives up on his call that has been wrong for about 3 years now, it may be time to i) panic or ii) buy everything with three hands (thank you Fukushima). We are leaning to the former, especially after the upcoming downgrade forces the Fed to launch QE3 in about a month.
From Joseph LaVorgna, Deutsche Bank
Growth recession confirmed; H2 dims; waiting to see jobs
Commentary for Monday: Previously, we highlighted the possibility that the economy was on the brink of a growth recession—a sustained period of below trend growth typically accompanied by rising unemployment. The disappointing Q2 GDP results and downward revisions to the prior three quarters lead us to believe that this indeed is the case. Real GDP in Q2 rose just 1.3%, as personal consumption virtually stalled (+0.1% vs. +2.1% previously). The prior quarters were revised as follows: Q3 2010 (2.5% vs. 2.6% as previously reported), Q4 2010 (2.3% vs. 3.1%) and Q1 2011 (0.4% vs. 1.9%). In light of the softer first half performance of just +0.8% AR, we are making adjustments to our outlook for the second half. We are lowering our estimate of Q3 GDP by a full percentage point to 2.5%; and we are reducing Q4 from 4.3% to 3.0%. These estimates will be subject to further revision pending a couple of near term developments, namely the resolution of the debt ceiling impasse and the outcome of the July employment report. (Although the coming week’s data on ISM manufacturing, construction spending and motor vehicle sales will also be important gauges of activity.) Hence, we are likely to make additional adjustments—potentially sizeable ones—in the relatively near term. For example, if financial conditions tighten significantly in response to a sovereign ratings downgrade or there is a Federal government shutdown, we would make more drastic cuts to growth. We estimate that a 2-3 week shutdown could subtract 1.5% from Q3 GDP growth. A lengthier shutdown could have a significantly more deleterious effect, although we continue to believe that this will not be the case.
Following our discussion from late last week, we estimate the most likely path forward for the debt ceiling at this point in time is a “sweetened” version of the Reid plan, which would presumably entice a sufficient number of moderate Republicans (and most Democrats) to support it—possibly through enhanced spending cuts. In the event that a resolution is not reached, there are a few policy options remaining. It is possible that President Obama could authorize the Treasury to exceed the $14.3 Trillion debt ceiling without congressional approval, potentially citing the 14th Amendment. The President has expressed a strong preference to not use this option, but he has not ruled out the possibility in a crisis scenario. Conversely, if the borrowing limit is not raised, then the Treasury would have to prioritize its payment obligations based on the available funds. Following recent public comments, we expect debt service payments to be at the top of the list—so as to avoid an actual default, which could roil financial markets. Following debt service, there would be some combination of military funding, social security, Medicare/Medicaid, defense contractors, etc. The remaining components would be subject to furlough in a partial shutdown scenario.
The July jobs report takes on heightened significance given the reduced economic momentum now apparent in the GDP data, particularly in light of the soft profile of consumer spending last quarter. We project a +50k increase in nonfarm payrolls (+75k private) and no change to the unemployment rate (currently 9.2%).
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Uh huh.
LaVorgna projecting +50k for july payrolls? that means it will come in negative
wasn't he the one saying NFP was wrong last month?
I quit reading after that. There are many third graders out there that knew this was the case long before this guy did.
I love how they make up these quips: 'growth recession' ......wouldn't contraction be more succinct?
Did you not get your newest edition of Newspeak?
War is peace.
Slavery is freedom
Ignorance is strength
Printing 398K initial claims is good.
A Great Recession is not a depression.
A growth recession is not a contraction
Got it. Check.
Looks like the downgrade fairy just flew by. I fart in its general direction.
Due to a "growth recession" in the US Govt, the latest edition of Newspeak has been delayed -- just a transitory phenomena!
Contraction is a term that most sheep know the definition of.
Recession is a term they see so often in the newspaper that they are mentally conditioned to glide right over it...
Hmmm- it's payday and my bullion dealer is not answering the phone... I wonder what that means?
I read the whole thing. It's still cheerleading. Everything works just right he may come close. Things rarely work out as planned.
Jobs, housing, debt saturation, and no more credit for consumption beyond means.
Yep H2'11 through 2020 just don't look that perky. Great call LaVorgna. Way to catch up.
All you have to do is watch the old video from 2007/2008 and you'd realize he missed that mess also. But watching Geithner's twin is amusing.
Because we all need a friday amusment:
ps:tyler, NO QE3 in 2011.
Lizzie is the new Banzai!
I wish my brother Tim was here...
Here's Joey's Pedigree:
"Joseph A. LaVorgna is a managing director and serves as Chief US economist in charge of US macroeconomic research for Global Markets. He joined Deutsche Bank in 1997 from Lehman Brothers where he was a Vice President in the Fixed Income Division. Prior to joining Lehman, LaVorgna was an economist at UBS Securities and he started his professional career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 1992, where he was an economist on the Monetary Analysis and Projections Staff. LaVorgna is a graduate of Vassar College and is a frequent commentator for CNBC as well as various other media outlets. LaVorgna and his colleagues were ranked #1 in Economics in the 2010 Institutional Investors’ All-Star Fixed Income Team"
He's a typical FED lackey; bought and paid for, as are most of the "Blue Chit" ecoonomists on Wall Street. For further background you can see this link: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/07/priceless-how-the-federal_n_278...
I can imagine these guys all getting together with the Bernank for a little cheerleading session like the ones they have at Wal-Mart stores at the start of each day's business.
Once you have the FED emblem tatooed on your ass, it prevents you from ever thinking clearly, again.
a perfect CV for a crone
What LaWronga means by "..a sustained period of below trend growth.." is that reality has arrived and his trend predictions have proved to be delusional
with 'expert' economists like this at the top banks is it any wonder the banks can't see anything coming and are bankrupt
Joey LaStpupid has spoken.
His commentary seems to be...deflated...
Long bond is saying no deal, Howie! Hope gross Gross is still short.
"We estimate that a 2-3 week shutdown could subtract 1.5% from Q3 GDP growth."
That ought to tell you all you need to know about the current warped state of the economy. What type of GDP reading would we get if the gov't shut down for 3 months? -5% GDP.....negative growth? Totally broken misdirected system.
I have not laughed this hard since the O hope and changling was elected!!!!!!!!!!
ROTFLMAO and neither I or the eCONomy is getting up anytime soon.
BWHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
The amount of statist wet dreamers has become unsustainable.
Have at it bithcessssss.......Muslims to the left of me Mulsims to the right .........
You are either wid us or agin us in the fight of evil and we have killed the ............. whatever.
"We had to destroy the village in order to save it."
I was listening to a "well-respected" economist today on NPR aka Rockefeller Radio. She said the government should spend more because it will boost GDP.
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe.” - Albert Einstein
Actually, it's easy to quantify. The deficit is 12% of GDP. Cut that and there would be a 12% drop in annual GDP plus a follow-on effect of maybe 6% more. So, 3 months would be 18/4 = 4.5%, close to what you wrote. Shut down for 3 weeks and it would be 1.125%
by goverment employees for goverment employees.
Oweblahma needs to quit talking about 'no silver bullets'. He may find out different.
Regular ol lead and copper bullets are just fine with me.
"Conversely, if the borrowing limit is not raised, then the Treasury would have to prioritize its payment obligations based on the available funds."
Isn't that exactly what all of us as individuals have to do on a regular basis already? It's about time our government lived within its means too.
Goobermint has no frame of reference, though. Be like having the E-trade baby run things.
Oh, it already is.
But if they have to prioritize spending then they don't need as much money from you. Debt controls.
WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE LONG BOND?!?!?!?!
It's saying there will be no deal, so no more supply.
One would think that supply is just around the corner for those when they get downgraded, no?
No. The supposed downgrade is really meaningless. Was an article yesterday on the effects.
Joey Bagodonuts! Alas, we hardly knew ye...
Joe Lavorgna jumped the Loch Ness Monster in a NASA Space Shuttle, riding shotgun with Sasquatch, with Elvis Presley & Hitler in the back seat, on a moonshot, bitchez.
The Doctor Speaks....listen to him:
Many baby boomers now looking to sell out have to realize they are selling to a “poorer” generation. Many are coming out with student loan debt levels that already rival that of a mortgage. Given that many of the older generation run the money fountains (i.e., bank CEOs, politicians, the Ben Bernank) the focus is on protecting the problems of their generation. Yet this narrow focus has only provided basically low mortgage rates and a false mantra that “real estate always goes up” but we now have many people waking up to this nonsense. We no longer live in a cheap fuel world. Younger generations may prefer mobility instead of the white picket fence dream which is rare to begin with in landlocked Southern California.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/this-time-is-different-real-estate-lo...
actually, if he is finally throwing in the towel, that may be the ultimate contrary indicator.....
hey, crank_itGuy!
you know, unhnn,...people who fade my calls are extremely wealthy!
i wouldn't trust joe to be anything ultimate, here; i don't care how much money he has lost. he is out of his element.
imagine the goobermint actually not being able to borrow any more money for a while. say, forever. now, there are gonna be some peeps in the civil service there who are gonna know exactly what they need to do to pull this off in their bailiwicks. b/c they will apply common sense and rational thought. the rest of the people will have no idea what is ging on, since they have never seen that appraoch before in goobermint.
i think joe is in an analogous situ. as an economist, he is a member of a profession which is subject to group delusional thinking. they want to forecast next quarter GDP and the first question they ask is: what would the professor like to hear?
then, they have a little 3-sigma seance and joe has a 95% chance of coming out w/in .2% of the concensus. just "randomly" which gives him the stats edge.
joe finds dissonance humbling, i would say. but such is life on the brink of the brinkmanship of a bona-fide growth recession.
what tf. give the guy a break! you know how these fat tails make the average guy look like he's never seen a black swan before, ever!
or consider 6 moronic sophomores taking a make-up test. nobody studied, nobody knows shit, and they all cheat. they all end up with the same answers. the preofessor grades on an easy curve and they all experience new success as student achievers!
He was bullish since 2008? jesus, what a clown. What mad bastard was bullish in those 3 years? pff, this world.
Let's try to look past the BS. If Q1 was +.4%, then the real numbers are negative for Q2 and probably for Q3. We are technically in a recession right now, but of course, they won't admit that until QE3 is in full force.
Long bonds now in vertical meltup mode.
Is Bill Gross finally throwing in the towel on his bond shorts?
Man, that's gotta hurt.....
Sub 4% coming up!
Price stability, bitchezzzzzz!
......and the real fundamentals are.....what?
People getting in ahead of qe3. watch the selling on the news when they announce it.
Glad to see the biggest con and shill finally give up after the non-stop pump job of the market and the economy over the last couple years. Complete shill who deserves to be burned at the stake for his purposeful misdirection of the American public.
Gold still strong, despite the shellacking of the XAU today.
Its a giant battle. Which is the safer haven? Gold or Uncle Gorilla notes??
Tough call..
Gold looks a lot better and doesn't have flea ridden hair.
I don't know why you continue breathing. You truly are the biggest waste of oxygen.
Shit it is proably time to go long.
One rule that will guarantee success in life
Rule: Never reveal everything you know
You are on fire today! Great point, BB. Have an enjoyable weekend.
Perfect! My watch is right on time
What if you don't know anything?
They would make you president.
If you know you don't know anything, then you're wrong. You do know something.
It's probably not newsworthy anyway.
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." -- Mark Twain
If the older you get the less you know you know ..It means you must be pretty old.
Ah, you gotta love the innocence of youth. Here's a tip: that rule doesn't guarantee shit. Here's another: there is no single rule that guarantees success, so don't waste your time looking for it.
thats hot
The real rule that will guarantee success in life.
Never buy something that depreciates on credit.
People are tripping over each other to buy that long bond. Only in America can a looming default on your bonds cause panic buying of those bonds.
Customer> Sorry Visa, I cannot afford to pay my bill anymore and I have maxed out my card.
Visa> Great news, we have decided to lower your interest rate and increase your card limit. Just let us know when you decide what amount you want it raised by. No credit check necessary since you told us before that there is zero chance of you defaulting.
What default? IRS takes in $2.3 trillion and interest on the debt is $170 billion. SS payments are $680 billion. Other programs will have to be cut. Hopefully the DOD, EPA, Dept Education etc.
But, but...think of the Children! (Granny's Hoveround™, the Senator from Exxon's bribe, etc!) You must be a heartless Republicon to be so unfair!
You know Sun, I've been hearing something for a couple of days. Firstly, I've gotta say, the only people that have it right on spending, are the tea party freshmen. The entrenched assholes only want to slow the 71/2% trendline growth, per year, not cutting anything. They are knocking a bill around in Congress, to freeze spending at FY 2011 levels, bloated by Obama as it is. Then, reduce actual spending by 1% per year, for the next 8 years. They claim the result is a balanced budget in the 8 years. With all the fat at the Dept of Ed, the EPA, the Pentagon, certainly more than 1% can be cut. Don't know how the debt is handled during this period, but the driver of debt is spending, and it will be under control. Just sayin......
Lights out for Bill Gross and Jimmy Rogers
5-yr. yield 1.37%
10-yr. yield at 2.80%
Yikes!!!!
A house made of cards and built on sand will only last so long. Check the meaning of 'facade'. That is what the bond rally is about.
Jimmy is definitely underwater.
Bill is a different case: nobody is really certain that he is short, not even ZH.
ES 1400 in 10 days after debt ceiling rise.
Silver target $35.00
Gold target $1525.
AAPL target $480
I remember not so long ago that the gold and silver shorts' targets were much lower. What does it mean when both the shorts and the longs are raising their target prices?
It means higher highs and higher lows fo'shizzles!
Jimmy and Bill both think long term. I'd bet they took a cold look, then doubled down.
As a lesson to those newbies that want to buy and hold leveraged ETFs, the last time long bond was sub 4%, TBT hit a low of 35.72 (or so). Two years ago. Going below 31 this time. That's the decay in doubles.
Forget triples. They decay that much in a month.
TBT decays certainly, but is a convenient way to short over a period of a few months.
We are lowering our estimate of Q3 GDP by a full percentage point to 2.5%; and we are reducing Q4 from 4.3% to 3.0%.
Need to translate from Lavorgnese into ordinary English:
Q3: 2.5% => -.5%
Q4: 3.0% => -2.0%
I've noticed significantly less traffic in the 'upper level' fast food chains. Reminds me of 2008.
On the flipside, McDonalds is remodeling every location in town.
Amusing...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKjl3YL1eFg
Someone just bought a very large amount of SDS.
Explain IYR or SRS and I'll buy you a shiny gold coin (even filled with chocolate)
I can't explain I can only observe. Against my better judgment, even after seeing that large volume spike on SDS in the 3:20 5 minute volume bar, I sold my August puts at the end of the day so I could be flat. I really wanted to ride them to infinity but I've blown my account out too many times now and have finally resigned myself to the fact that I'm not a home-run hitter.
I know what you mean about IYR. It doesn't make much sense to me how it won't go down. I've tried shorting it a number of times and always take a loss.
I'm glad to be flat now that I see what they did at the last minute.
fwiw: friend of family owns a resale shop selling upscale baby clothes in an affluent area. theft in the shop is up dramatically in recent months.
Better to steal than have your little mosters look like plebes, I guess
Prices start at only $20:
http://www.babywit.com/ARF650I-p-cool-baby-gear.html
for girls ok. but no buster brown stuff for the boys. i'ld rather see the little guys in rough and ready attire.
I'd have no qualms putting my little boy in one that has The Dude from The Big Lebowski:
http://www.babywit.com/REC101I.html
lol. my wife would have a cow.
I use cushion covers.
Have you ever had to change a baby? Dress one? What the hell are arms and legs doing on baby clothes anyway?
Relevant, and ironic:
http://www.everydaymoney.ca/2011/07/the-rich-steal-more-than-the-poor-ne...
Wish AVL would sell off again. Scottrade froze this morning, so missed 5.25
It's my 4 year plan.
Banks to Ben Bernanke: "Please sir, we'd like some more."
A simplified version of Tyler's "Compression Trade" here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SPY&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=fxe
That was pretty weak even for you robo
Absolutely not
I laughed soooooooo hard a tear came to my eyes!! LOVED IT!
Todd Schnitt is a moron.
Maybe economist should blow the dust away from those books and chapters of books written by ancient economist dealing with "steady state"...
Volume! hahahahahahaha
And.....REITs are up into the close. LMFAO. Unreal. Who the fck is holding these pieces of shit up?
Did that 5 minute candle hit a tick of -2000?
and it bounces off the tick
Anyone who wants to build a society based on growth should get 'special' care in a mental hospital.
Think the author gets paid by the word? In summary; Things sucked, suck now, and future suck. And by the way, I work for a bank controlled by a foreign country.
" Joey perma-LaWronga" Tyler, you are one funny bastard!
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Thank you Tyler, the more frustrating my days are, I am always grateful and so rewarded with a wonderful catharsis to read your humor and every word you print!!! God bless you and thank you as always!!!
So when when the stock market crashes and they declare we're in a recession is it time to yank my $50.00 out of savings and go long?
S&P500 long term chart shows a series of broadening patterns - aka megaphone wedges.
The three broadening formations reveal an unstable market where buyers and sellers battle for control...
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
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