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On Liquidity And The False Recovery
David McWilliams (of Punk Economics) is back (previous discussions here and here) and this time he takes on the the flood of liquidity and the false recovery that has been created. Starting with a discussion of gas prices and the central banks' recklessness behind it, he swiftly shifts to the 'shambles in Greece' where more debt is supposed to solve the problem of too much debt yet again. From extreme highs in Greek rates to extreme lows in rates among the major developed economies he juggles with the conundrum of injecting liquidity to reflate a bubble in order to avoid the consequences of the bursting of a bubble - brilliant (as those Guinness chaps would say) - as this merely pushes the next crash out a few more years but making it bigger and more devastating. Global Central banks have pumped $8.7tn into the banking system to 'save the world'. Saving the banks has cost more money than it cost to fight WWII, the first Gulf War, put a man on the moon, clean up after last year's Japanese Tsunami, and the entire African aid budget for the last 20 years all put together. Context is key - is it any wonder asset prices have risen since there has been so much cash looking for a new home - why hold something that is printed everyday (cash) when you can hold something that is actually running out like oil or gold. The punchline is what goes in must come out - and that means inflation - as the 'trip' of excess liquidity comes home to roost. Must watch.
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Not related directly to the topic but the Fed's liquidity has not helped Nat Gas prices and wondering how these Nat Gas suppliers are able to sustain themselves at these ultra low prices ? Lately coal companies getting hammered too !! Anybody hear of bankruptcies in that arena ??
Just bought January 2013 Nat gas call options. Someone said that natural gas "rises".
Be careful, the profit vapor-rizes.
IMO nat gas will bottom at 1.75 or so
I have said for a long time now that shale gas will absolutely blow up. Big boys will come in and scoop up leases from bankrupt companies where the economics work. Equity holders will be shown the door (and the wood shed).
I would rant, but this is probably a much better rant than I would provide ...
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/143046#comment-143046
Folks, shale gas production rates require DEBT. Without constant inflows of capital, the rates of production spike and fall rapidly.
I also read that companies which hold gas reserves as part of their asset base have to mark these assets down as prices decline or remove from their assets entirely if the price is too low for the reserves to be profitable. For the savy who do their homework, some companies who hold real natural gas assets will have share prices beated down with the low nat gas prices ... creating select buy opportunities when the eventual implosion and return of sustainable gas prices occurs.
Do your homework. Do your math. Nat gas prices go up, but only after the orgy of debt fueld shale implodes.
Regards,
Cooter
P.S. The oil drum had a really solid primer on how nat gas fracking works, its about two years old I think. I couldn't find it in a quick search, so check back in a bit.
UPDATE: a lot of search results over at TOD are coming up neutered or not found, so there may be some technical difficulties at their site.
Here's an outstanding Bloomberg article that Zero Hedge should front page, that should scare the shit out of anyone who is wondering how long the debt disaster that The Federal Reserve & The Federal Government have now already created can be ignored before it inevitably rears its quite ugly head (hint: not long, and there are compelling specifics as to the "when" moment arrives).
Here's a teaser excerpt:
Four Numbers Add Up to an American Debt DisasterBy Caroline Baum Mar 28, 2012 7:00 PM ET
Consider the following numbers: 2.2, 62.8, 454, 5.9. Drawing a blank? Not to worry. They don’t mean much on their own.
Now consider them in context:
1) 2.2 percent is the average interest rate on the U.S. Treasury’s marketable and non-marketable debt (February data).
2) 62.8 months is the average maturity of the Treasury’s marketable debt (fourth quarter 2011).
3) $454 billion is the interest expense on publicly held debt in fiscal 2011, which ended Sept. 30.
4) $5.9 trillion is the amount of debt coming due in the next five years.
---And here's the link to the full article:
Four Numbers Add Up to an American Debt DisasterIn the end though TIS, those are just NUMBers. The other side of this whole argument is, let the false, debt money shit-show just fall apart. We might be surprised at how everyone dusts themselves off and suddenly feel lighter.
The role of debt-money in our lives has been thrust, advertised, evangalized, teased into it's current, god-esque place.
I say let the house of cards collapse. there is no "need" for forward hedging in a natural society. There is no place for Speculation in a natural society.
Savers vs. speculators, let the games begin.
Oh and nat gas? All eyes on the north sea.
ori
candida-health-challenge-for-everyone
Look at the 5 year UNG chart, a complete disaster.
It may be too early to jump on the nat gas trade since many people are expecting a pull back in stock indices. Commodities would follow the same path for a while.
Only because the Big Brother in the White House will not
support Nat Gas. If he is reelected I will be very short.
I just bought some junk silver and some gold. You know I can buy a gallon of gas with a couple silver dimes from the 60s ? Still ... ! Can you believe that? And the thing is ... In the 60s gas cost a couple of dimes!
Ya know, there is some hard lesson in real currency in your statement here. Something about true value and what that value can aquire. I'm sure that there are smarter people here that can verbalize this better, but to me this seems almost profound as an example of the true value of hard assets. That the same 2 dimes could by the same amount of fuel 40 years later (after fiat was removed from being tied to said hard asset) seems fitting
There's an oft-repeated teaching that an ounce of gold bought a fine toga with all the fine accoutrement for a Roman dandy just as it will buy a sharp suit for an uptown gentleman today.
and a couple lines of coke gets ya laid
I assumed it was one line, guess inflation hit cocaine addicts
No, congressmen are just that much more in demand.
well, you can never do just one.
You'd be wrong.
The "war" on drugs increased the price of pot in the '80s, but you can still get the same gram of coke for a hundred dollar bill.*
Same as in the '70s.
The difference is in REAL terms, the coke was VERY expensive before the "war" and has become much cheaper as we have printed and off shored.
And the only pot that see inflation now is sold in legal "drug" stores in the few states that have decriminalized it for medical use. That pot is seeing massive inflation, street stuff not so much.
Gotta keep the masses sedated, cheap coke and snap cards for all!
*good friends that are cops, bikers and drug counselors
We traded freedom to chose for bigger courts, higher local taxes but have had NO effect on drug use or deaths. The American way.
Toga! Toga! Toga!
junk silver = oxymoron
worthless paper = oxymoron
Worthless paper = pleonasm (redundant word)
tautology
Tyler, that video is removed. Here is the up to date one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDFgtb0by4E
Man, I see in fight club the strongest and smartest men who've ever lived. I see all this potential, and I see squandering. God damn it, an entire generation pumping gas, waiting tables; slaves with white collars. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need. We're the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War [false]. No Great Depression [false]. Our Great War's a spiritual war [true]... our Great Depression is our lives [true]. We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars. But we won't. And we're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off.
-Tyler Durden
I've been articulating what's in this article for years, now looking for the depression to be 3 times worse than if DR Ron Paul had been elected in 2008.
Suffer now Bitches!
Gave you a +1, Tyler, but I for one am not pissed off. Well not much, anyway.
On the T Martin shooting;
Someone should just shoot that half breed hispanic latino wetback so we don't have to read about it on Drudge or see it on the race baiting channel MSNBC anymore.
Perhaps we should have affirmative action for whites so we can turn the mostly black NBA and NFL to mostly white again?
Just an observation;
The so called Democrats and Liberals articulate their feelings from only one side.
I and my kind articulate mostly from our logical side.
Although I do feel great remorse when my dog dies, or my parents die, or a good friend dies.
OK? I use my feelings, but not to wright legislation, I want hard facts about it. All that wins and all that looses.
We can't come together left and right untill we both speek a languave we can both understand.
You're just going to have to accept it; The Federal Reserve is the root of all evil, not each other.
President Obama should just declare the NDAA law unconstitutional and he will not enforce it, and seek to have it repealed.
Obama Wins!
I'm okay with his saying he will not enforce it and seed to have it repealed. Having him declare it unconstitutional is not good. It's bad enough that he acts like king and usurps the role of Congress. Now you want him to act as the SCOTUS too?
Next thing will be to have him declare via Executive Order that all prior Executive Orders are null and void. That he could probably do, but won't.
Interesting point.
So it means that US citizen negroes living in the US of A have the power to discriminate in the NBA, NFL?
What conduit does this discrimination process use?
That would be a piece of knowledge, for sure.
Until that point, well, that is just US citizen propaganda showing again the eternal US citizen nature.
The NBA and the NFL, among other sports, discriminate against those less physically capable. In many other occupations the qualifications are adjusted to account for racial group - it's called affirmative action - and the adjustments are base on goals, which in effect become quotas. That also happens in areas such as college admissions.
If the same rules applied to sports as apply to other occupations, the teams would have to have a racial makeup that approximately reflected the racial makup of the city or region in which they play. Fortunately, sports still is a meritocracy - the best athletes get to play, people like me get to watch.
I'm still amazed how stupified the masses are after talking to one today
Let me guess....eeeeviiiil speculators?
No, Just Market Manipulation. They, (even the refineries are doing it now), are buying tankers and holding it off shore.
Almost something like the conspiracy of JP Morgan and it's silver manipulation to pull prices down.
Don't fret. Got Silver? JP Morgan just took a few ounces:
http://www.webcompact.net/index.php/news/23515-scotia-transfers-600k-ounces-of-silver-into-jp-morgan-vaults-wednesday
the only banker conspiracy there has even been and ever will be is to BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH. Quite frankly "they suck at it" btw. grow a garden, tend to your food people.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcPQ9gww_qc&feature=player_detailpage
You forgot the flip side: SELL HIGH and later BUY LOW.
a foreigner (newly minted green card), guv worker, back from a vacation in the Carribieans
Oh......you mean a doctor, fresh from Med School.
"Most people prefer to believe that their leaders are just and fair, even in the face of evidence to the contrary, because once a citizen acknowledges that the government under which he lives is lying and corrupt, the citizen has to choose what he or she will do about it. To take action in the face of corrupt government entails risks of harm to life and loved ones. To choose to do nothing is to surrender one's self-image of standing for principles. Most people do not have the courage to face that choice. Hence, most propaganda is not designed to fool the critical thinker but only to give moral cowards an excuse not to think at all."
~ Michael Rivero
People simply do not want to question anything. They don't want to think. They don't want to have to make the difficult choice between risking anything by standing up or admitting cowardice. I'm literally killing my brother in law by constantly telling him the truth. Today he had nothing. He couldn't joke. He couldn't come back with any propaganda bullshit. He just coughed. It is like he has consumption. Just fucking think! Take the red pill! That's all you have to do.
Now that I look back, I realize that a life predicated on being obedient and taking orders is a very comfortable life indeed. Living in such a way reduces to a minimum one's need to think.
Adolf Eichmann
So, you're doing what exactly? Standing up to your brother-in-law?
Hey - what happened to "the Red Pill" anyway? He was here once, wasn't he?
Don't feel too bad.
My hub's head nearly explodes.
I've been ordered to keep it to myself.
The truth is not to be spoken unless they have a three minute segment on CNBC or the Today Show.
Wow, you talked to one mass? Congratulations
CNBC's website says "Stocks hit a wall,may need Bernanke". Unbelievable
They just don't get it.
And remember that tiny little sliver that was equities in that balance sheet chart we saw the other day!
Yes they do. But it's their job to pump the market. They're nothing but stock brokers with access to a camera and an audience. Kind of like one big seminar except they don't have to shell out for the dinner.
However, the premium spot in the rotation offers at least two (2) intimate "'bout to lick your balls" interviews with Becky Quick.*
*In the unfortunate event Ms. Quick is unavailable, Maria will stand in. At half-price.
Bernank is stock market's Oprah. I hate that bitch... eh, both of them
Liquidity = an open bottle of Hangar 24 Orange Wheat.
Oh horseshit. The theme all over the finance pages today is "Crisis for US is over". LMAO. LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE. This situation is so dire they can't afford not to lie as it's the possible destruction of the entire system.
Paradoxically, I'm happy when the market finishes green day after day. Somehow, it is more comforting that nothing matters any more. In the old days (pre-2008), market 'makers' were like reckless teenagers under Nanny Greenspan. Today, they are more like suicidal octogenarians under Nurse Bernanke.
So in most everyone's opinion do you see a rise in asset classes such as housing or items that people do not NEED but WANT? I personally don't think you will. What I think you will see is a mixed situation of ever decreasing prices for asset classes that people view as albatrosses and a RISE in assets that people need to LIVE - this is coupled with the premise of unemployment, lower wages, etc.
rise in price of things you NEED... reduction in price in the things you OWN.
...unless you own gold & silver ...or guns or bullets or Jack Daniels or anything else in limitied supply that people want.
By the way, that's the ONLY reason gold & silver was chosen as money in the constitution, they're limited in supply and universal value everyone naturally recognizes.
Gold & silver don't need laws telling people they must accept them if offered in payment.
But FRNs do. Why? Because FRNs have no natural value people recognize. They're just paper with fancy printing ...and more can be printed on a printing press anytime Bernanke wants.
Why ANYONE would support a paper currency with no natural value, that can be printed on a printing press till the world is flooded with them, is beyond me. They're crazy, insane. That's the only explanation.
Or they're a banker controlling that printing press.
I'm trading 1 federal reserve note + 6 cents tax for 1 jacketed hollow point these days.
.375?
Luckily, this kind of presentation makes it easier for me to share the message. One buddy i met in cuba just cashed his paper and bought 70 percent silver 30 gold, more coming
Nat Gas must be the cheapest its EVER been in terms of gold. We will look back one day on these prices in envy, but in thr near term (end of fill season in Oct) they could go to 0.
Hmmm, by law no gold standard, however by market fact, it looks more and more like a gold standard is creeping in. If gold didn't or doesn't matter why is old Helicopter Ben and other fiat fanciers blathering so much about it. Also there is more gold being bought than is accounted for by the public retail buyers. Like thong underwear on a fat man, gold is creeping up no how much they try to pull it back.
Damn you Man!!! Call "horrifying image alert" before indelibly damaging my mind's eye.
Well I could have named a fat man to give it more punch. Miichale Moore for instance?
Nurse! Nurse! The screens!!!
True for women too; visit a beach this summer. Maybe 10% of women look good in a thong. The other 90%, not so much.
I agree with alott that is said but I absolutely do not agree with the long held belief that Oil is the result of ancient plant matter etc. The argument that oil is a finite material is a really convenient way to create a perception of a shortage and drive prices to whatever levels you desire. Doesn't common sense tell you that the amount of decomposed material that would be required to create a multi billion barrel oil field would have to be so deep it would be inconceivable? Wasn't it Henry Kissinger who was quoted as saying "“Control oil and you control nations; control food and you control the people". I believe Peak Oil is a convenient mantra that too many people have latched onto.
"Fossils From Animals And Plants Are Not Necessary For Crude Oil And Natural Gas, Swedish Researchers Find"
http://viewzone.com/abioticoilx.html
Because Dinosaurs and plant matter were miles below the sea level at DeepWater Horizon. and
"However, in May 2008, a new record for borehole length was established by the extended-reach drilling (ERD) well BD-04A, which was drilled by Transocean for Maersk Oil in the Al Shaheen oil field in Qatar. It was drilled to 12,289 m (40,318 ft), with a record horizontal reach of 10,902 m (35,768 ft)(6.7miles), in only 36 days.[11][12]
On January 28, 2011, Exxon Neftegas Ltd., operator of the Sakhalin-I project, drilled the world’s longest extended-reach well offshore on the Russian island of Sakhalin. It has surpassed the length of both the Al Shaheen well and the Kola borehole. The Odoptu OP-11 well reached a measured total depth of 12,345 m (40,502 ft) and a horizontal displacement of 11,475 m (37,648 ft) (7.2 Miles). Exxon Neftegas completed the well in 60 days.[2]" -Wiki
Abiotic Bitchez.
and http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig5/crispin8.html
Dream on. Oil production has been flat for six years.
Great point, production is flat.
The number of rigs is exploding.
Just like Best Buy, increased sales OVERALL, but with many more locations driving, it does NOT bode well for the future.
We are quickly reaching PEAK cost of extraction. Soon the energy cost will be too close to the energy derived, which all equals the same thing.
Our way of life is going to have to change and not for the better.
Peak cheap oil is real no matter how badly the abiotics want to believe otherwise.
Perhaps we've reached or surpassed the rate at which abiotic oil can flow upward to where we can get it.
extremely topical and refreshingly insightful.
So, uh, where does the carbon come from initially? Produced by the core of the earth. Besides, unless the earth is creating carbon at the exact same rate as we extract it, we'll eventually use it all if we use it faster than its made. That 'paper' doesn't really talk about (as far as I can tell) the actual source of the carbon except to say 'aliens'. So, we're still left with peak oil, eventually, unless you think that carbon just magically appears when we need it.
^^^^^I agree. Funny though, like any other engine or dynamo you need lubricant. .Would it not be ironic, sometime in the future, to realize we were pumping the planets internal lubrication system dry, resulting in greater tectonic plate shifting and earthquakes???
Somethings wrong with me. I had to find a marker to sniff after that.
Anyhow ain't nobody going to pay no crimminal bankers back nothing. Ever. They know it too. They are moving to Cook island. New Zealand, Paraguay. They don't expect to be paid back and no ones expects them to be paid back.
Open Source Monetary System. Invert the pyramid. Morality only takes place within the individual. Rock on.
Gold running out?
Absolute bullshit. Gold is about the only thing which can never run out.
Maybe that is why it is about the only thing that can be money, hunh?
Gold does NOT have to be money, nor does it even make sense in this 21st century. Currency should AND could be a basket based denomination. All natural resources of a nation priced into a basket currency - problem solved.
Great idea ...as long as I'm the central banker controlling that currency.
The whole world would love to abandon that barbarous relic, gold. All it would take is one honest government willing to provide an honest currency and resist the temptation to swindle the public.
Look how long the current system lasted even though anyone who examined it closely could see it was a swindle. As long as they only stole 2% a year or so, nobody cared.
If people are stupid enough to believe the economy is recovering, they deserve any economic calamity that hits them.
I gave up trying to warn stupid dumbass sheeple about what's really happening. To hell with them, let them go down with the ship.
Call me cynical, whatever, I don't care. If people are gonna ignore what's happening, hoping things will get better, living in their little sheeple dream world, fine, whatever, carry on.
cranky old geezer. I get it.
One guy i work with asked me right after the entire economy of Iceland crashed what i thought of the near future, expecting me to say everythig was going to be alright.
I told him that all 3 major banks of Iceland were bankrupt, the Central bank and most of the savings banks were also bankrupt. The coalition govt would not last for long because of riots and civil disorder which would only get worse. The remains of the financial system who was ten fold GDP of Iceland would now feed only on Icelanders and reminded him that a great number of households, companies and car owners had opted to finance their investments in foreign currency, and the domestic currency had more than halfed in value.
Then i mentioned the problems in Britain and Ireland and explaned how the situation there was in many ways similar. My estimate of the next few years was very much in tune with what i was looking at and perhaps it was presented a bit cold.
This guy hates me now, and every time something i said comes true hates me more.
The choise seems to be illusion or despair
If one takes away the illusion some people get confused and angry, you can try to help them but dont expect them to thank you for it.
Most people ignore reality until realtiy destroys them.
And no, it's not my responsiblity to bring 'em back to reality. Let 'em go on in their delusions and fantasies. When reality wipes 'em out, it's not my problem.
That's the attitude you have to develop if you wana keep your sanity. Otherwise you'll go insane thinking you have to help everyone else avoid calamity (from their own foolish delusional thinking).
Is that a non-christian view?
Before you answer that, go read Psalm 91.
"A thousand shall fall at thy side, and ten thousand at thy right hand; but it shall not come nigh thee."
Christ said many are called, but few are chosen (saved, make it, whatever).
He said it rather matter-of-factly, like "oh well, whatever, that's the breaks".
It obviously doesn't bother him that many, perhaps most, will be lost.
So why should it bother me?
And the disciples asked, "Lord, when did we feed you? When did we clothe you?" If you're gonna believe in Scripture, you should look at the entire book.
Go forth, and alleviate some suffering: http://www.worldvision.org
The vast majority of Jews living in Germany in the 1930s must have been saying to themselves "That Hitler guy is pretty scary, but he just can't be that bad", and "How bad could it get?". A few left, but most did not to their fatal peril. Not unique - most people live according to "Tomorrow is going to be like today, today is pretty good, so what is the problem?" Which is true until it is not.
Agree that trying to discuss where this is going is a total waste of time on most people. I don't bother to try. Glad there is relatively little demand now for the things I want to have when this Ponzi really does come to an end. I want to be done shopping before then.
Cranky Old Geezer - Why feel ashamed because you care? Many are called but few answer. How much risk taking to reach a remnant, a small percentage, is up to the individual. The time has begun arriving for those speaking truth and offering solutions to be jailed or killed for it.
If it would make a difference I would scale my efforts up. Instead, I have dialed them down. I did what I could when I could and I can live without guilt for the effort.
I focus my efforts at the local level where helping people still makes a difference. You cared Cranky Old Geezer, I do hope you can let any guilt you have go and I am honored to have shared the same soil we call America together. God bless you!
Kinda fun: BANKRUPT
Origin:
mid 16th century: from Italian banca rotta 'broken bench', from banca (see bank2) and rompere 'to break'. The change in the ending was due to association with Latin rupt- 'broken'
Source: OED http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/bankrupt?q=bankrupt
looks like all of these laid off workers in l.a. will add to the recovery...........
http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_20285089/l-mayor-antonio-villaraigosa-calls-layoffs-city-workers
Baaaaaaaaaa, baaaaaaaaaaaaa... ;)
Aaaaaaaaare Yoooooooo my recooooooovery?
like +1
Fucking amazing.....
Music against BERNANKE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USqhqTVTr_I&feature=related
...come on man, twasn't ''Jazz Economics Lesson''.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPlvaIuHvIc&feature=BFa&list=AL94UKMTqg-9AktL43Ug7tai56v86U0zAd&lf=list_related
What?
..OK OK man, Jazz it up, just saying lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NV1X-p4kjE8&feature=BFa&list=AL94UKMTqg-9BJm-O3ceQSFYewML0v5dii&lf=list_related
You must be VERY young!!!!
...lol, thanks man, but no.
Can a recovery be "false"?
Just like pregnancy, there's no fal...
How about Hysterical Recovery instead? As in, it existed only in the tubes, way up before the business end of actuality..
I liked that video.
Needs a little more punk though. At the end of that drawring, he shoulda ripped it off the wall stuck his foot through it and lit the camera on fire.
More cowbell.
I liked that skit too.SNL to the Moon!
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/29/who-captured-the-fed/
Former IMF chief economist is bluntly saying that Wall Street owns the Fed.
Of course this is no news for us here, but coming from their side, this caps it all.
I feel like I'm living in communism again. It's no good, no good at all.
I am very sad.
Of course Wall Street owns the Fed - this is not news. Wall Street got Congress to set up the Fed in 1912 to be the ultimate Wall Street backstop to prevent future 1907 Financial Panic style market meltdowns that were unpleasant for some members of the club. Being the Wall Street lender of last resort has always been the Fed's primary mission. Goals for employment and inflation rates, blah, blah, blah are just a fig leaf for the public. The Fed is a collection of 12 private regional corporations owned by Banks. Plain as day that Wall Street owns the Fed. Always has.
And they STILL insist it was the "right thing to do" and STILL insist on giving them more of our taxpayer money. Incredible!
you know what is tragic yet strangely amusing about all this?
in biblical times the false idols and gods were graven images on gold,silver, copper ect.
the coin, the money people worshiped, fought, killed and died over was at least made of substances that had some intrinsic value.
but look at us now, all those images, from pyramids to dictators, from ancient symbols and places of power to dead presidents.
burnt onto worthless pieces of paper, backed by nothing but lies, deception and debt.
strange that so many have suffered, continue to suffer, and so many more will suffer and die, not for lust of gold or other PM's.
but for greed of paper, the most worthless false idol of them all.
somewhere in the depths of hell, Satan is laughing his ass off right now, all those souls he is collecting, all for the price of the paper he uses to wipe his ass.
something to complement that gold your holding .. a 12 ga pump
From what I have been reading Looks like 55% increase on Lead and gun sales in the U S
keep on trucking f,ers
I still don't think I understand who is buying all the guns. Either it is older boomer types adding to their collections or it is first-timers who think they can shoot their way out of a calamity. Either way, it's not going to matter--you're either an old timer who can't run far, or you're a neophyte who hasn't learned any real tactics. Both will be easy prey if anything bad really happens. Which it won't. At least, not on any timeline people on here think. If Japan can be a zombie for 20+ years, the US can probably run another 50 or so easily. You'll get inflation up the ass, and you'll take it. Some cities might see riots. Total breakdown? Doubtful. Highly doubtful.
hey aerojet
you left your pan flute behind .
Let's see,who is buying all the guns.Well for starters it's people who know what being uncivilized comes from in many forms.One being simple mother fucking clowns who beat and trample the snot out of each other over fucking cheap meaningless garbage from retailers to economic perils that will fester everyday till BOOM.Or,Or a cop gets caught on a beatdown,right or wrong,does not matter,it's all perception by media and assholes of society,and we have another Rodney Bling.Thats why gun sales are booming.
Go long lead?
Sorry - couldn't resist...
haha, punk economics! If only more punks could represent like these guys do. The internationalists are toast if we can promote free culture!
http://silvervigilante.com
What America has to offer,,,and now it will be gone,,,thanx to BERNANKE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zxp6xU54EXQ&feature=related
Now wait a gosh durn minute.
If I take a cash advance on my Visa to pay my American Express bill, then next month, take a cash advance on my MasterCard to pay my Visa, I don't become richer?
No, you become Greek......, and portugueese, and french, and Italian, and Irish, and......American.
Zimbabwe???
Can't see interest rates going up much - interest rates are the rate of extraction - its all extracted out.
PS. Irish domestic demand is down 26% from its peak................
Our internal demand shock is not so different from Greece.
There Are Too Many Similarities To Last April To Not Notice - read article here 'Too Many Similarities To Last April?'
right now is the Good Ole Days compared to the next 3-5 years if not sooner
The Receding Tide
Becoming Uzbekistan
March 26, 2012
Several things characterize countries of the Third Word, whatever precisely "Third World" means.
The first is corruption. America is rotten with it, but American corruption is distinct from corruption in, say, Guatemala or Thailand, being less visible and better organized.
Several major differences exist between the usual corruption in the Third World and that in America. In most of the Third World, corruption exists from top to bottom. Everyone and everything is for sale. Bribery amounts to an economic system, like capitalism or socialism. By contrast, in the United States, graft flourishes mostly at the level of government and commerce. You don’t (I think) slip an admissions official at Harvard twenty grand to accept your shiftless and dull-witted slug of a misbegotten offspring. Nor do you pay a local judge to drop dope charges against your teenager. And in the Guatemalas and Egypts of the planet, corruption tends to be personal. The briber and the bribed act as individuals.
In the United States, corruption occurs at the level of policy and contracts, between corporations, special interests, and Congress. It is done gracefully and usually legally. For example, Big Pharma pays Congress to insert, in some voluminous bill that almost no one will read, a clause saying that the government will pay list price for drugs instead of negotiating for a better price. Over time, this is worth hundreds of millions, paid by you. Yet the clause is legal. Or military industry pays Congress to buy an enormously expensive and unneeded airplane. It’s legal. Read the bill. Or agribusiness pays Congress to cough up large subsidies. Also legal.
In Mexico you pay your useless daughter’s useless teacher to give her grades she didn’t earn so that she can get into university. Corruption relies on individual initiative. By contrast, in America, corruption is a class-action industry. Large groups—blacks, women, Indians, unions—bribe or intimidate Congress into giving them special privilege: affirmative action, racial and gender set-asides, casinos, loans and preferences from the Small Business Administration according to sex and ethnicity. Corruption, plain and simple. But legal.
Second, unaccountable and often intrusive police not subject to control by the public. In America formal police departments rapidly grow more militarized, jack-booted, swatted-out, and their powers grow. A law-abiding citizen should never be afraid of the police, and a misbehaving cop should worry intensely when said law-abiding citizen records his badge number with intent to call the chief. Those days are over. Today the cops can bully, threaten, and harass, and there is precious little you can do about it. The proliferating laws against filming the police can have only one purpose, to prevent exposure of misbehavior. Third World.
Any organization involved in controlling a population is a de factor police outfit, as are TSA, “Homeland Security,” the FBI, NSA, ICE, and so on. Against none of these does the citizen have any recourse. In principle, yes, but in practice, no. Third World, but far more efficient.
Third, lack of constitutional government. This is not the same as the lack of a constitution. The Soviet Union had an admirable constitution, and paid no attention to it. America heads rapidly in the same direction.
In America, the Constitution is largely and increasingly ignored by the government. Constitutionally the three branches of government are co-equal, but in practice the Supreme Court is of little consequence and Congress is the action arm of a corporate oligarchy. Constitutionally Congress must declare war, but now the president sends combat troops wherever he pleases and Congress reads about it in the Washington Post. The president can order citizens murdered, ignore habeas corpus, monitor and store email. The government can search you at will with no pretense of probable cause. Third World.
Fourth, impunity. In the bush world, the rich and powerful are never brought to trail regardless of their crimes. We are there. Wall Street runs a clear and thoroughly documented scam, the subprime-loan racket, doing immense damage to the country. How many went to jail? How many were tried? How many now have high positions in the federal government? Third World.
Fifth, a yawning gap between rich and poor. As the American economy declines, the middle class sags into the lower middle class. The sag takes many forms. Prices rise but incomes don’t. Houses go into foreclosure. Student loans tied to the houses of parents become backbreaking. Businesses hire people as individual contractors, with no benefits. Increasingly the young live with their parents. The ship is taking water.
Yet the rich prosper. In America they carefully remain inconspicuous, not flaunting their money. But they have it. Third World.
Sixth, a controlled press. Many Americans I suspect will insist that the press is free, because they are repeatedly told that it is, because they have nothing to which to compare it, and because the control is most adroitly managed. But it exists.
In America control does not work as it did in the USSR, by savagely punishing the least expression of undesired ideas; this would be obvious and arouse opposition. American control works on the principle of fooling enough of the people, enough of the time.
Strictly speaking, the US does have a free press. You can easily buy the books of David Duke, Karl Marx, Hitler, or Malcolm X. The trick is that few read. Television and newspapers rule, and they are owned by large corporations concerned with furthering the interests of large corporations.
Those interests are maximizing the viewership for advertising, which is where the money comes from; keeping the lid on in a country in which various groups would be at each other’s throats if demagogues were allowed to provide the spark; keeping corporations from suffering any sort of control, and furthering the political agendas of the media.
Thus you never, ever, allow serious criticism of Israel, and you never, ever, allow an articulate Palestinian to offer his views. You do not allow any coverage of crime by blacks, which might lead to social upheaval. You do not allow distressing reportage of the wars—a little girl looking in puzzlement at her bowels hanging out thanks to shrapnel. You do not do any serious investigative reporting of corporate corruption. And so on. Keep it bland. Keep it reassuring.
Don’t let, say, a cop talk about what really goes on, or a GI to talk about what soldiers really do in Afghanistan, and don’t let political debates touch on substance. Don’t allow, for example, unrehearsed questions: “Mr. Santorum, can you name in order the countries that border on Iran?” Oh no. One mustn’t reveal to the voters that neither they nor the candidates know what they are talking about. Better to maintain the illusion of Informed Citizens Engaging in Democracy.
Mexicans know what kind of government they have. Americans do not.
good article, also the regulators, public education k-12 is worse than many 3rd world countries, Federal reserve market rigging
Corruption is systemic. It is the rule, not the exception. The difference in application is noted only by the level of sophistication.
It's no longer corruption.
It's a totalitarian system for a population that does not have totalitarian mentality...yet.
As opposed to the chinese system, which is a totalitarian system for a population that has totalitarian mentality. Slavery is a choice, check Foxconn. Americans now have a choice to choose slavery over freedom.
A lot of this is bullshit. If you have a run-in with a bad cop and you complain, a lot of times you can get something done if the complaint is valid--unless the chief is a total piece of shit. Some local elections still do matter. The TSA sucks, but the negative publicity they have generated for themselves is slowly killing them. The US Supreme Court is presently deciding whether Obamacare is constitutional--so the Constitution must count for something. Hey, I'm as jaded as jaded can be, but sometimes our corruption gets light shined on it and stops. Unlike the third world, I don't have to worry about giving bribes to get things done. Are we still under the thumb of government? Sure. Are we as bad off as third worlders? Hell no! I do think we're on the way to some kind of total state type system, but we aren't there yet.
Slippery slope
You are almost entirely correct - and well said, but although they don't want us fighting each other in the streets, they DO want us fighting each other instead of them.
www.endofinnocence.com/2011/06/emancipating-slaves-enslaving-free-men.html
1984
The narrator in the video says intrest rates could rapidly explode to 20%, like in the 80's. Uuuhh, something (I can't quite put my finger on it) seems to make me want to disagree, and if/when it does.....(speachless!).
Yeah, doubtful. The US would be instantaneously insolvent if that were allowed to happen.
http://capital3x.com/think-tank/whoosh-sound-is-the-sound-of-massacre-of...
whoooose the massacre of shorts
Most of the money is going back to the governments to fund the bread and circuses. The banks just skim enough to make an obcene living.
It's not going to "come back" without causing a meltdown. Japan can take a what, 200bp move? What about the US?
It's borrowed capital, from our children.
ah, yes, as I posted here some time ago, better to be aborted than be a debt slave, just sayin'
Excellent post. Easy for the sheeples to understand, if they want to.
That's just it they don't want to. I had a conversation with my wife today. She was commenting on food and gas prices. Then she asked me why. I told her it's because of the amount of money we were printing and the deficit. Her next question was, what did the deficit have to do with it. Then when I started to explain she went completely glassy eyed and shut down. My wife is a pretty intelligent person but when I tell her things are gonna get much worse she just wants to change the topic.
Misery is a choice. A lot of people choose to be miserable. I would love to know why. Havent' found the answer yet.
cognitive dissonance
Hurts too much "to go there"
Affects the best and brightest.
Remember Martin Niemoller... He wrote that shit in response to "German Intellectuals" laying down in the face of fascism.
Same here with the old lady. But, she read something online, and is now stocking up food. Don't know what it was, but she knows my type of work and knows my bros are doing the same thing.
Look, worst case, nothing happens, you have plenty of food and some physical investments.
If you live in a hurricane area like I do, it's just common sense anyway.
They probably still have it, but we had a Zombie Op. That meant you were cut off from resupply and were on your own until you could (hopefully) find another unit or adapt and overcome.
I met with a futures manager today and he thinks the system needs another $12 trillion to be saved. I asked him if a system that needs that much is worth saving and he said yes.
He also doesn't think inflation will be a problem.
I just laughed internally.
Then I met with one of our clients and he said there is always something to be bearish about and yet still the markets rally. His point is a sticking point of mine because to a certain extent it is true. But damn, history's sample size may be small but very bad for countries with too much debt and money printers. Now its the whole world! Couple that with low volume and high frequency trading and it MUST be different this time. I hate to say it but this just isn't like other recessions or even depressions.
Right? I feel like I am right but I gotta say S&P 1,400 makes sticking to my guns VERY difficult. This feels like a special area of hell that this atheist has been relegated to.
Will someone please buy my house so I can move to my airstream and work one of the new minimum wage jobs I keep hearing about. Ahhh this sucks!
Fuck this industry.
Anyone care to expound upon my thoughts? Sorry for rambling, but this market is driving me crazy!
I won't expound, but....
"futures" - "manager"
Cracks me up every time, on multiple levels.
Well the manager suffix in Finance is broadly funny as I am just shy of 100% sure no one has a fucking clue what is going on and their "managing" is simply guessing.
Friends try to introduce me to new women by using my title and I just shy away from it, correcting them to "someone who acts like he knows shit about "markets"."
The Nanex reports are giving me a case of the Terry Bradshaws where I have lost most of my confidence. Most tools I use for trading are technical in nature or simply supply and demand based. The Nanex reports make it VERY VERY hard to believe that the markets trade on any sort of supply/demand relationship so how can I expect my techicals to work in ID'ing trends, turning points, etc.
I guess I'm just a little bitter because I have put all this time and money into a certain skill set and a few algorithims have made it mostly useless. The aforementioned friends and ladies don't understand that the lack of confidence is spilling over into my social life. I'm having some twilight zone moments these days. Thanks ZH for being my secret public journal. This sucks.
Dude, you're dead on here. But the other side of "manager" is that the central planners actually DO 'manage' futures. Funny on at least two fronts.
And you're right regarding skill sets. Your trading can be ruined in a split second ONE FUCKER decides he's gonna 'say something.' One jerk can manipulate markets with a single word.
At this point, I just want some volatility. Up, down, I don't give a shit as long as we see some bigtime fluctuations. '07-'09 was FUN! This slow melt-up is a killer.
Therefore I've been reduced to medium term trading, if you will...
Example would be SLV at $35 with a sell order in at $48. No stops... I could give a fuck. I'm holding until.
Or coffee, after a 20% pull back this year. Buy and ride until, no stops. Anyway, to each his own. Good luck!
Well it sounds like your current approach is similiar to mine. So if we go down we go down together!
hehe
Should that be the case...
My misery will love the company.
Your skills are quite valuable. Bernanke cannot ...I repeat....cannot do this forever. The more they think they control it, the faster is going to collapse quite miserably.
He cannot control panic. And that's what's coming.
Just take a break from work.
ekm
what's your definition of forever, please?
I could die any second in the future---would that be considered' forever' for this oldman? om
Good point. Only God knows. One can foresee quite clearly events to be happening, but their timing is impossible.
Meredith Whitney is one example, I call it "prophetic rapture".
You can manage futures, but it would be futures of hookers. Manage a few hookers that service the Bernanks and DSK's of the world, in return for a little inside info. How anyone can make money consistently in these markets w/out inside info from central banks and govts is incredible. My buddy is a PM at a HF of about 6-7billion and they were happy returning 9% after fees last year. My hats off to them.
I've been doing well doing receivables financing/factoring getting 2-3% a month but the challenge is finding an efficient way to put larger amounts of money to work in that arena. Anyone wanna help me do some type of packaged receivables securities? hundreds of billions out there to securitize and resell a few times ;)
Other niche areas are pawn shop financing, payday loan financing.
I'm no trader and have no formal training in finance. I learn what I can on sites like this. But from what I have learned, it's probably impossible to beat those who have access to Cray Supercomputers and MIT math geeks to conjure up formulas to play the markets nanosecond to nanosecond. All I have is a four core Athlon CPU and I know how to count correctly most times.
I've always figured Wall St was rigged but from my uninformed, outsider's standpoint, it's far more rigged than ever. It's like climbing into the ring with a professional heavy weight boxer thinking I might have a chance.
I guess your feeling that you're being shut out would be a proper reaction, I would.
Your sanity is the most important thing you have. If you lose it, what's the point of continuing to work in a madhouse?
Your sanity is what produces income, not your workplace. Get to find a workplace that suits your sanity.
Well said.