A Little Thursday Morning Conspiracy Theory Fun

Tyler Durden's picture

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

A Little Thursday Morning Conspiracy Theory Fun

To most Americans, the stock market is the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  Whether professionals follow it or not, it really is what most Americans look at when judging the health of the market.  And guess what, it is up over 3% on the year.  Yes, the S&P and marginally down on the year, but the DOW, the symbol of the American Market is up.

I found Mr. Buffet's purchase of IBM somewhat interesting.  He has avoided "tech" companies for a long time.  I understand that IBM has diversified, but it is hard to really classify it as much other than a tech company.  Also, for a legendary value investor, find a stock that is up 28.5% YTD, 35% in the past year, and is at an all-time just seemed weird.  Again, I understand that sometimes value can be found in the biggest companies, even those trading at its all time highs or that have had massive runs.  According to Bloomberg there are 15 analysts with a buy recommendation and 16 with a hold.  Not the everyone's favorite stock, but hardly out of favor.

His purchase of BAC was done to make money but also seemed designed to "help" the market.  Deciding while in the bathtub to go long a bank with a confusing corporate structure, opaque accounting, and seem real issues, seemed surprising, but at least he seemed to get a good price for that "buy America" investment.  Maybe it is a co-incidence that BAC is in the DOW and that purchase also helped drive the DOW higher, but it had limited impact since BAC has such a low weighting.

IBM, on the other hand, is the DOW.  Since the DOW is "price weighted" IBM represents almost 12% of the DOW.  In a moment of boredom, I took the current weighting of each member and multiplied by their YTD returns.  That gave me a 7.3% return of which IBM was 3.5%.  Obviously the weightings and adjustments affect how the individual stock price changes over the course of the year, but I think it is safe to assume that 50% of the DOW's out-performance is a result of IBM, and it is unclear how much of that can be assigned to Mr. Buffet's purchases.

He also owns Moody's which didn't join in the USA downgrade party.

Is Mr. Buffet doing more for public policy and morale than all the politicians combined?  Should he be doing it, and is he really doing what is best for shareholders in BRK/A?  Since 1998 and the LTCM crisis, the shares of BRK/A have done okay, but not sure that anyone would look at the last 13 years and coronate him the oracle?  A very smart person, with a very long track record, but is he trying to do too much?

The IBM investment just seemed a bit weird for him, and it is interesting the outsized impact it has on the DOW and hence public perception of the markets.  I'm not sure it really means anything, but more interesting to think about than the latest utterance from some unelected EU official.

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Hedgetard55's picture

Where is the Reggie Love pic? That does not need to be photo shopped.

ratso's picture

WB knows BAC very well.  Remember when he comented that they overpaid for Merrill?

It is fair to assume that he did BAC to make money.  I think he believes that making money IS his contribution to the economy.  I can't believe tha the confuses philanthropy with investing.

Arthor Bearing's picture

Warren Buffet is an alien

Hard1's picture

Actually the raising the Dow conspiracy theory sounds really likely.  If the Pulitzer were still awarded to freethinking real jounalism, Tyler should hold about 11 prices by now.


Arthor Bearing's picture

No no I'm with you. He met with Bush on 9/11 after the planes crashed: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=125x41811.

He very publicly bought $5 billion of BAC a couple days after speaking with Obama about measures to help spur the economy: http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/08/22/obama-calls-buffett-mulally/http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/08/25/buffett-to-invest-5-billion-in-bank-of-america/

He was connected with shady Salomon Brothers bank with its big office in WTC7. And he very publicly makes comments that keep him on the public's good side despite being one of the richest men in the world. I don't trust Buffett as far as I can throw him.

Richard Chesler's picture

Is Mr. Buffet doing more for public policy and morale than all the politicians combined?

No. He's doing more for corruption and fraud than all the politicians combined.

oogs66's picture

oh man, that is a tough call - they are so close, neck and neck into the finish

hawks5999's picture

This is a quid pro quo between Buffett and the feds over his back unpaid taxes.

The IRS takes a bigger hit if the economy tanks even more than what they lose by not collecting from WB.

TruthInSunshine's picture

'Tis far easier and more financially efficient to target a mere 30 stocks, in an attempt to float them or stabilize them, let alone keep them from reaching their FMV (i.e. much lower), in a bid to try and bid of CONfidence (that even Larry Jabba Summers conceded is a primary goal of TPTB, so as to allow the frogs to boil more slowly and be able to pick their pockets more aggressively while they relax before expiring, whereas simmering them too quickly leads to an amount of pain and sensory shock that might wake them up to the fact we're in a depression and they're the grist for the Ponzi Mill).

So, it's no conspiracy.

Anyone who claims otherwise is the type of person who would deny the existence of The President's Working Group on Financial Markets (aka Plunge Protection Team).

CONfidence is the most important ingredient in perpetuating a Ponzi.

Once the CONfidence is gone, people who have awakened to reality do crazy things like ask for their money, save, pay down their debts, etc. - and then....then....there's a giant smashing sound as the plates of rationality meet the floor of reality.

forexskin's picture

where is WB7 when we need him. this is over the top for even a caption contest. WTF?

iDealMeat's picture

All kinds of fun with that, considering:

Dow Jones & Company is a subsidiary of News Corporation (NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA; ASX: NWS, NWSLV; www.newscorp.com).





Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm
Ernst & Young LLP
5 Times Square
New York, NY 10036

Website: www.ey.com

jdelano's picture

Come on Peter, just state it.  It isn't a question.  Buffet knows full well the markets are teetering on the precipice of total collapse which will devastate Berkshire.  He also knows he is the single most influential investor in the world.  There is absolutely no justifiable reason for him, given his investing history and idealogy, to suddenly begin purchasing IBM except as a means of propping up the DOW.  If the DOW falls M-Dub is going to look like Nostradamus as cap gains plummet and municipalities across the country go belly up in a red tide of debt.  Stop pussy footing around pretending to be an optomist and call it as you see it.   

whatsinaname's picture

General Maritime files Chapter 11

Urban Roman's picture

... just like when Bush kissed that Saudi oil poohbah ...

No, we don't need the oil, seriously. Not at all. In fact we're thinking of boycotting OPEC.






Sqworl's picture

He who pays -- picks the music for the puppets

Beatscape's picture

Much easier to manipulate 30 stocks than 500. Create a feel-good false sense of security. Keep the sheeple happy and buying iPads.

oogs66's picture

especially when so many people will mimic his positions

mayhem_korner's picture



Leverage - Buffet style.  Hike up the flag-bearer (IBM) and the thirty will follow; and as the Dow goes, the rest will follow.  As George Kastanza once uttered, 'that's like discovering plutonium...by accident.'

BTW, what other sheep-idols might be in on such a charade? 

BetTheHouse's picture

Stop it now. You are going to make me cynical.

Hedgetard55's picture

3% nominal. What about in real terms?

rdlem's picture

Doesn't IBM do well during World Wars?

dracos_ghost's picture

Welcome to the Fourth Reich.

With the amount of cash IBM has on the sidelines, they're pretty much a hedge fund rather than a tech company.

Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

Is IBM still under the same management it was under durring the last world war?

earleflorida's picture

they work as no-bid independent contractors for the "MIC", period!

program all nuclear subs, all nuclear land, sea defense installations , and "NORAD"

wb owns the 2nd largest RR in america , and what's funny is that the largest RR's HQ is only down the road in omaha

and yes i do believe that people work off of perception - so if the dow is up,... the economy is good in their minds

flattrader's picture

Yes.  IBM did quite well during WWII.  Thier German subsidiary did a bang up job supplying the Reich with tabulation machines which made running the German war machine and concentration camp system so much more effective.  Thier tabulation machines made the deportation and gassing of undesireables much easier.  The US subsidiary provided the special paper for the crucial Hollerith style punch cards.  Without that material support, it would have been extremely difficult for the concentration camps to fun as efficiently as they did.

The corporation stategicallly placed IBM soldiers immediately behind the invading Allies to reclaim the machines for the post-war reconstruction effort.

They did quite well pre, during and post war.

achmachat's picture

How about precious metals going down when they are supposed to go up?

mayhem_korner's picture



Did you watch the bears?  'splains the smackdowns the CBs are perpetrating.


Cult_of_Reason's picture

Buffet is a hypocrite billionaire.

Nuff Said!

Sancho Ponzi's picture

Speaking of hypocrites, Steven Chu is testifying today to defend his loan to Solyndra.  I wonder how many freaking trees were cut down to build his cushy Oakland residence? And where did he come up with the cash to pay for a $1.4 million dollar house? 



earleflorida's picture

while your at it, check out kennedy's $1.4bn gov't bailout,... pathetic 

Ragnar24's picture

The while "green movement" is a hypocritical farse. Isnt it convenient that they are ALL profiting from their own propaganda? If they really were the environmental altruists they claim to be, they'd live modestly and invest their "evil" profits to restore nature.

How much wealth do think is going to be transferred through the Chicago Climate Exchange (from evil industrialists to altruist Greens)?

How coincidental is that ROCKEFELLER is a Greenpeace donor while Greenpeace lobbies against nuclear?

Hedgetard55's picture

Lavazza down to 8 oz. of coffee in the can now (it was 8.8 oz not long ago), and price has gone from $5.49 to $6.49 at Shoprite, it is $6.99 - $7.99 everywhere else.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

'I found Mr. Buffet's purchase of IBM somewhat interesting.  He has avoided "tech" companies for a long time.'

Maybe he thinks there is a holocaust coming...


peekcrackers's picture

GeneMarchbanks +1 to you sir!

jew counter.. only this time sheep counter

GeneMarchbanks's picture


I'm neither a jew nor homosexual or gypsy but I am scared.

gojam's picture

Nathan Rothchild followed a similar policy as Buffet late 18th, early 19th century in Britain.

Kinda worked for him.

earleflorida's picture

don't quote me but i glossed over some financial's, years back, and noticed that rothschilds held ibm


they own the bilderberg, etc., etc,. 

Everybodys All American's picture

Crony MF - Global Capitalism

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Don't worry, dumb ass investors will vote with their feet soon enough and abandon the cult of personality that is warren buffett as quickly as everyone outside of happy valley has dumped paterno and pedophile state university

slaughterer's picture

Buffy has a $38 billion derivative bet on the S&P rising another 65% over the next 16 years.

HD's picture

He'll be dead by then. If I were him - I'd cash out and enjoy the time I have left. I bet Becky Quick has her price Warren - go for it!

monopoly's picture

No interest in Buffet and never had any. No doubt this is the most boring market I have seen in a long time. The last week, just blah. No bother though. Do not trade this market and like my core positions. And as always this year, no shorts.

HD's picture

Buffet - a nice old man I suppose, is just talking his book like they all do.  No BS or PR is going to fix this one folks.

peekcrackers's picture

 baaa baaa Baaaaaaaaad market! little sheepS

YesWeKahn's picture

Buffet is helping Obama, period.

Dineroguru's picture

Has Buffett covered his naked put position on market he put on a few years ago to lots of hoop-lala?

oogs66's picture

he probably doubled down, or wrote some puts on the dow :)