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A Look Inside Art Cashin's Crystal Ball

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When it comes to clear, concise, comprehensive forecasts of the future, nothing beats Art Cashin... even when his crystal ball is admitted a little cloudy.

From UBS Financial Services

A Cloudy Crystal Ball - Since this is the last “Comments” until after Memorial Day, a blurry look ahead may be in order. The battle for Greece (and Spain) will be fought daily at the ATMs of their banks. A full-blown bank run would be an instant crisis. Egyptian elections (Wednesday & Thursday) may move markets. Markets heavily oversold and susceptible to a large, maybe massive, short squeeze. A central bank move in Europe, China or the U.S. could catch shorts flat-footed. That having been said, we have not yet seen capitulation, just thick dark gloom.

And to think how many "pundits" out there believe that being paid by the world is indicative of wit or intelligence. All hail the pithyness of the Chairman of the fermentation committee.

 

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Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:37 | 2447145 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

FB shareholders...you've got fail!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:39 | 2447154 redpill
redpill's picture

$35 open, excuse me while I bahahahahahahaha

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:58 | 2447253 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Make that 33.30 now, 12% off...  I wonder if Sukerbergs wife will have to pawn off her wedding ring in the near future just to help pay the bills...

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 10:19 | 2447379 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Wasn't the timing of that wedding a bit suspicious?  Only assets earned inside a marriage are community property, if all his billion and billions in new wealth were earned before the wedding, even a couple days before the wedding, they are not subject to community property laws.  I hope the bitch has a great prenup.  Otherwise when their lawyers tangle at the divorce table his will claim there have been nothing but losses since the day they were married. 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 10:29 | 2447440 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Timing???  He had his priorities straight: 1. Float this bitch to the market (legal dodge to community property as you say). 2. Marry that chick to make her quit nagging.

#1 was a mistake for the public and #2 was a mistake for him.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:42 | 2447739 BearOfNH
BearOfNH's picture

Isn't today T+3 settlement from the IPO? Arguably Z wasn't a multi-billionaire until today.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 10:24 | 2447413 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Bwuuuhaahaaa!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:43 | 2447175 casino capitalism
casino capitalism's picture

FB = Faceplant

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:45 | 2447182 Long-John-Silver
Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:39 | 2447156 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Odd. Just a few weeks ago the MSM was telling me that all (OK, most) was right with the world.

How could they have been so wrong?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 10:00 | 2447270 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

The darned world went off script again.

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:40 | 2447161 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Soon FB share will compete with 1oz of silvaaa! hi-ho away, but downhill!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:41 | 2447165 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

looks like the scurrying form fb back to aapl is in full effect.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:41 | 2447167 Stackers
Stackers's picture

My Magic 8 ball keeps telling me to "ask again later" .......... hmmmm

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 10:04 | 2447295 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

"Reply hazy, try again."

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:41 | 2447170 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

More on Greece.

ww.finemrespice.com/node/96

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:43 | 2447176 ISEEIT
Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:44 | 2447180 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Why Cashin appears on CNBC is beyond me. A giant among turkeys

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:50 | 2447212 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

He gets to feast at the Buffet. CNBC contracts the best Caterer in the area.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:45 | 2447183 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

imo, everything is still screwed down tight, in the markets

yeah, they were down 4, 5, 6% last week, but it did take a week (not 1/2 session)

when it comes to "orderly markets" (as yers trooly as been saying for months now) you ain't never seen nuttin like dis, BiCheZ!

[submitted by slewie, yer non-humble vice-chairperson of the sensimilla sub-committe on aromatic vapors]

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 10:06 | 2447317 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

mmmmm.......vapors.....

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:48 | 2447200 New England Patriot
New England Patriot's picture

The Dark Side clouds everything.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:48 | 2447201 pashley1411
pashley1411's picture

Actually, there will be clarity.

As the credibility of fiat money evaporates, it reveals, what liquidity had obscured, the stark and value-subtracing nakedness of governments, their agencies and policies; banks, and their lending practicies and credit portfolios.

We can only hope that the world comes to economic clarity as soon as possible.

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 09:49 | 2447208 New England Patriot
New England Patriot's picture

That'd be nice.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 10:19 | 2447387 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i liked the stark and value-subtracing nakedness of pasha_411, here

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:09 | 2447881 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

p_411 writes like 'baby_blythe'...

~~~

Yet another ZH double identity?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:39 | 2448945 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

baby_b has shown me some self-portraits from her photography work

OT   who cares if the carpets match the drapes when so many zH women are sporting bare-wood floors these days?  anyhow?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 10:53 | 2447517 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

NEP, when that day does come it will not be nice, because we will see that the fascist marriage between corporations and government have left us nothing, and it will also be the day we find out that they have the power to shut up any person that does not like it, all those Patriot Acts, with martial law and permanent detention, and FEMA camps, these were not meant to be mental exercises you know. It was not meant to be legal Sudoku to while away the hours while the economy and democracy hummed along without a glitch.

I still say that the only explanation that fits all the facts and variables is an ELE. Somewhere they have made a shelter or shelters that can accommodate a few million people, carefully chosen people, for several years survival, to emerge on a new and cleaned off world to start over and make the globe in the image they think best. Not even the people chosen know until time is too short to do anything about it. Like Judd Hirsh said in Independence Day, "you don't really think they spend $10,000 on a hammer do you?"   Well, I would add "you don't think they really spend $10,000,000,000,000 on some banks do you?"  The abandonment of the rule of law, the total lack of accountability both legally and financially, the sacrifice of whole nations, the naked quashing of governments that do not toe the line as if the G20 simply outsourced our national governments to GS.

It does not even have to be an unpreventable natural disaster like a big space rock. It could be that they figured out that the planet is about to die under the weight of all the billions of people and the only way to stop it is a self cleansing of all us useless eaters. Use your imagination. I note that there is recognition in our civilization that the gig is up, even if much of that recognition is subconscious, a lot of it is expressed as self destructive free floating anxiety, and more than a little as narcissistic antisocial disorders, but no matter how it is expressed the result is the same, humanity is unsupportable and ungovernable at this scale and TPTB have concluded that if they do not act and control the situation nature will in a most uncontrollable way.

Or maybe they are just doing the best they can after agreeing to a peace plan and tribute schedule to aliens. As in give us all your gold and silver or we blow up your planet with our deathstar. I have seen some things that make that as plausible as any other explanation.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:12 | 2447600 New England Patriot
New England Patriot's picture

btr, I agree. My 'nice' was facetious. On the one hand, it will be nice to finally see the truth revealed. On the other it may raise the temperature of the planet a few degrees. You know, as all the lies catch fire.

 

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 10:30 | 2447446 spine001
spine001's picture

Sadly, this can only happen under my scenario 2) -hyperinflation and minor wars, in my comment below

 

I didn't say this before, but for whatever is worth, since this is only my opinion and not math based. I think that the most likely scenario is scenario number 1) given the fact hat LOTS of energy will be spent trying to make that the pathway we follow, but your guess is as good as mine

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 10:25 | 2447416 spine001
spine001's picture

Guys/Gals, I am flabergasted by people's lack of understanding of the fact that:

THE SUM OF ALL DEBTS = THE SUM OF THE REAL VALUE OF ALL ASSETS

There is no mathematical scaping that, it is a fact. Everything else is perception. In mathematical terms you call it an attractor.

Therefore, the future is already predetermined, there is nothing we or anybody can do about it. We can only change the pathway we take from here (A) to there (B). From where we are now to the new attractor stated above (where we will be in the future).

Since it is clear where we will be, and chaos theory tells us we can not predict the pathway from A to B, but we can predict where we will end. We should all take action to protect ourselves.

The unknown pathway can entail 3 different scenarios:

1) orderly transition ==> Monetization of the debt and controlled inflation under 15% for several years to dilute debt ==> New Asset Value Discovery process

2) disorderly transition ==> Monetization of the debt and uncontrolled inflation -> hyperinflation for a couple of years to dilute debt ==> Rapid Asset Value Discovery process without any major wars

3) disorderly transition + War ==> Debt liquidation by large Country bankrupcies, international expropiations (already started by Argentina YPF vs. REPSOL; Colombia, etc.), I arbitrarily associate this scenario with WW3, probably limited, but it could get out of control. I just can't envition this scenario without a major war. Since the Chinese would see their long term savings completely destroyed, including their foreign natural resouces acquisitions (due to expropiations like NYSE:YPF)

For scenarios 1) and 2), the only alternatives you have is to own a high cash flow business that provides non-discretionary services or products to society (i.e. Hospital, or the communications of the future: Facebook?), namely equities. In the case of scenario 2), this is even more important than in case 1), since you won't have time to react, the market will explode up from one day to the next.

For scenario 3), if you want to leave in the world that will ensue, which I don't, you better start getting weapons caches and ammunition, plus food and medicines stashed in as many secret places as you can afford to. Remember that static locations have proved with time that they don't work and only become sophisticated tombs.

My previous analysis is NOT my vision of the future, it is just a mathematical analysis of the economic and financial system along with the market system we have today using Chaos theory and Game theory to model human behavior.

I, and along me, nobody else KNOWS the future or have a vision of it, we just have models that we use to try to understand possible pathways. My model tells me that the actual path is unpredictable, but finds it easy to determine the end game, although sadly, not its timing or the path we will take to get there.

I hope that this helps,

Until next time,

Engineer

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:54 | 2448007 economicminor
economicminor's picture

You forgot the 4th option or maybe it is the 1st and only possible end and that is deflation.

The problem with your inflation theory is that in the US and Europe, money is only created thru additional debt. We don't just print money or clip the coins. The modern way of creating inflation is thru debt and that has very negative consequences and can not bring about balance.

The problem with inflation created thru increased debt is that it transfers the control of all real goods and services, the products of industry (value added productive enterprise) from the producers to the creators of debt. It takes away both the incentive to be productive and also the ability to purchase and enjoy the fruits of labor. As debt increases, so does the percent of GDP attributed to the creators of debt.

Creating inflation thru debt is an exponential equation which always ends in a parabolic curve. The steeper the creation, the narrower the curve.  The higher the debt, the greater the fall. 

For balance to occur, for free enterprise to work, the majority of the benefits of productive enterprise must go to the producers not the money changers. 

Many people blame the regulators but this is a false claim. There may be some of this but without regulators we end up with monopolies and the history of monopolies is fairly well known.  The US has been moving closer and closer towards monopolies, especially in the creation and control of our monetary system.

The outcome in the end will be deflation.  There is no real practical way to end the debt thru inflationary debt creation. There isn't even good history behind ending excessive debt thru inflation of any kind. Check out Argentina or the Weimar Republic or the South Seas or Tulip bubbles. Inflatioary expansion has never ended well.. Oh yeah, this time will be different... How many times have I heard that?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:53 | 2449098 spine001
spine001's picture

Good point! that is a 4th scenario. My mind made me forget it, probably beacuse in my mind it is  a low likelihood without major upheaval, given that the creators of debt, Banks are in power right now. If not, look at the fund raises going on for the next USA election...

 

Until next time,

Engineer

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:47 | 2448960 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

spine-less_1: 

you assert as FACT:

THE SUM OF ALL DEBTS = THE SUM OF THE REAL VALUE OF ALL ASSETS

please include your work, next time, ok, toy-boy?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 10:33 | 2447460 spine001
spine001's picture

Scenarios 1) or 2) happen

Scenario 3) happens

Lets take a vote, what do you think the pathway will be to the end game?

Scenario 1) inflatin lower than 15% for the foreseable future until debts are monetized

Scenario 2) hyperinflation for a short time until debts are monetized

Scenario 3) Debts liquidated and WW3

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 10:35 | 2447467 q99x2
q99x2's picture

'A central bank move in Europe, China or the U.S. could catch shorts flat-footed.'

Look how the market moves up without the Bernankster. Ouch

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:21 | 2447926 Anarchyteez
Anarchyteez's picture

Re 1, 2, or 3, put them in a blender add Vodka and crystal meth
and we have our mathematical outcome.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 15:27 | 2448533 BlackholeDivestment
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Artful, and I still have my wallet. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFrCtBpnqn0

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 02:52 | 2461481 agagshoes
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Wearing Oakley Sunglasses Usa> fits into this category of prevention and maintaining the health of one's eyes.Oakley is known for its innovation which has a hint of both art and science.

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