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Looking Beyond Europe

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As we come to terms with the new reality (or perhaps same old reality) that governments will do anything to maintain the status quo, Goldman Sachs took a step back this morning to consider what is worth focusing on in the medium-term. Obviously the European Summit proceedings impact their perspective, but less positively than one might expect as they expect slower global growth, a possible European recession, refocus on US data, Chinese policy responses, currency wars, and a balanced portfolio approach to risk.

Global Market Views: Looking Beyond Europe

Dominic Wilson

1    Europe remains the top issue on most investors’ radar screens. Last night's summit was broadly as expected, centred on a bank recap plan, a larger Greek haircut than originally planned and an EFSF insurance scheme (European Views). Lack of detail on the EFSF scheme was disappointing but proposals to use public guarantees to help unsecured bank funding and to establish a SPV to bring in outside money, while vague, are new. Although this may satisfy short-term market demands, we are skeptical that it represents a lasting resolution; hence, we can imagine renewed stresses from this source and still view the sovereign crisis as a source of risk. However, the more interesting question now may not be whether European risks are decisively resolved (which we doubt) but instead whether the market has again overestimated their spillover into real activity globally. On that front, the market may be focusing too little on a US economy that so far refuses to go into recession, and on the chances (finally) of a shift in Chinese policy. Neither is a source of dramatic good news, but the market has beaten down growth views in both areas. And it is here that we have begun to recommend some selective risk.

 

2    Almost every conversation we have had in the last months has started – and often ends – with Europe. European risk has been the key factor that has led us to be more cautious about markets in the past few months. It affected risk premia directly; ongoing stresses to the banking system – and broad financial conditions – have made it hard for us (or others) to be confident that the market would pay for resilience in current data, even with positive surprises, given a clear risk that financial pressures will lead to slower growth further forward. Our central case has been that European policy will make incremental but insufficient progress towards resolution, with the ECB balance sheet being used to backstop the system. The latest steps fit that pattern: better than where we were a few months ago, but insufficient to provide a decisive end to the problems, and light on details. What is still more open to question, however, is how much these financial pressures transmit to the real economy – something that has been our biggest focus since August.

 

3    Our own central forecast has been that the financial shock will push the Eurozone into mild recession by year-end; that the US will see some pressure from this source but is probably more likely to avoid recession; and that China will slow relatively less than feared as external demand pressures should bring a policy response. The European survey data has shown continued deceleration and is now consistent with only barely positive growth. However, as we have described, the market has priced significant forward growth weakness not just in Europe itself, but in some cases even more clearly in the US/Chinese and global growth picture. Even if Europe remains a significant source of financial risk, the longer the transmission to non-European economies fails to push them into sharper slowdowns, the more the market may become willing to separate some cyclical assets from the European dynamic, to a degree that it has not been willing to do in quite some time.

 

4    On that front, European preoccupations (positive and negative) may have partially obscured two developments. The first is the continuation of moderate, positive growth in the US economy. In absolute terms, the US economic news (broadly consistent with low positive growth) is still very disappointing. But it has been systematically better than expected (as our MAP indices show) and has not yet shown the kind of deceleration that many feared. Our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) shows that the broad set of data is consistent with GDP growth holding steady at a little better than 1% in the last month or two, a touch better than in August and not at this point in recessionary territory. Our forecasts look for GDP growth of only around 1% in Q4 too – a clear slowing from this morning’s Q3 print – but pretty close to the run rate that much of the data is already showing. What is striking is not that the data are strong (they aren’t), but that a recession that the market has periodically taken as a foregone conclusion is so far not appearing. The main near-term risk remains fiscal policy, where the November 23 Super-Committee deadline could still provide roadbumps.

 

5    The second issue is China’s growth and policy response. Most data show both that China’s growth has been below trend for several months, and that financial and credit conditions remain very tight, particularly for smaller firms. The September export data also show clearer signs that the slowdown in major trading partners is dampening growth. But while the slowdown is real, the market’s perception of that reality often seems multitudes worse and, puzzlingly, seems even more intense in the last month or so. Q3 GDP growth was again close to 9% and the latest HSBC PMI moved above 50 after three months below that level. There are also modest hints that the policy debate is shifting. Premier Wen has over the last few days placed somewhat greater emphasis on job creation – and stable money growth - while still reiterating the fight against inflation. These are subtle shifts, but they suggest that as the impact of tightening now bites, policymakers are becoming more balanced about the risks to the economy. We expect inflation to drop below 5% this quarter, easing the immediate constraint here. One of our big disagreements with some of the more bearish voices on China is that we view the tightness of credit conditions as an explicit policy choice, not an indicator of a system collapsing on itself. This means that it can be reversed in the short term if needed, even if the longer-term risks are increasing.

 

6    Neither the US nor the China story is particularly good in any absolute sense. But market pricing of growth in each area is already very depressed. The pricing of US cyclicals versus defensives, captured by our Wavefront Growth Basket, has looked – on our measures – to be consistent with a US recession for some time. We have argued that the market has priced more significant distress here – surprisingly – than in many other places. And the relative valuation of cyclicals to defensives globally tells a similar story. What is equally notable is that with the SPX retracing well over 50% of its peak-to-trough decline in the last few weeks, the Growth basket has lagged that rally and closed only around a quarter of its drop. So, despite the fact that we think it is the data – not European risk – that has been the clearest reason to feel somewhat better in the last month or two, the market has traded something closer to the reverse.? Noah Weisberger and team have recommended a fresh long position in Wavefront Growth this morning. This reflects the view that the market has room to relax about extreme growth risk, even though we are unwilling to call the "all clear" on financial risks.

 

7    Chinese assets have also shown dramatic underperformance over the last few months, despite the focus on Europe. A-shares made new lows last week. H-shares have underperformed the SPX substantially on a wide range of horizons: over the last 3 months, over the last year, since the US market lows of March 2009 and since the US market highs of October 2007. Copper markets were heavily impacted in August and September. China-sensitive cyclicals in the US have underperformed sharply since mid-July. And even the substantial drop in the DAX – usually attributed to its location in Europe – may have as much to do with the broad pressure on cyclical and China-dependent assets.  Intriguingly, however, the last couple of weeks have seen some reversal here. H-shares rallied on Wednesday even on the back of a tough US close and have had a big move overnight; A-shares are lagging but have also moved higher in the last week; copper prices have moved off their lows; and China-related US cyclicals have been outperforming modestly for a few weeks. These signs – coupled with a rising probability of a policy shift – deserve more attention than they have received so far.

 

8    Of course, policy shifts are not only appearing in China. US policymakers continue to edge towards further action. We expect next week’s FOMC meeting to deliver only modest changes. But the discussion both of extending FOMC projections to forecast the funds rate – one way of sending soft signals of an even more extended commitment to low rates – and of larger shifts to the monetary policy framework has picked up lately. What many of the new proposals being floated have in common is the willingness to consider more inflation, at least temporarily. We have suggested that a nominal GDP target accompanied by asset purchases would be the best option for the Fed to deliver further easing in policy. Yesterday’s Global Weekly runs through the main questions on this new debate. Credible shifts in this direction would push out the timing of tightening even further, with steeper curves beyond that, and would likely push real rate expectations down further still. A credible commitment of this kind would also presumably be good for equities and tend to weaken the currency. These asset price shifts would essentially involve the reversal of the constraints imposed by a so-called "liquidity trap".

 

9    While we are still not sure how far and how quickly the major economies will head in this direction, we think it is important to think through the implications in advance. Currency insights are intriguing in two directions with this framework. The first general insight is that in the limit, if developed economies remain weak and interest rates extremely low, major currencies may begin to price off the notion of who will be quickest to embrace the view of aiming squarely for more inflationary policy. In that environment, both the UK and US could see further FX weakness for that reason. We are not in that world yet, but it is helpful to think about what happens if we go there. The second insight is that one interpretation of the Swiss National Bank’s decision to set a (depreciated) floor under EUR/CHF is that it follows one of the recommended paths for committing to a price level target to head off deflation risk. We think the commitment is credible, so EUR/CHF when close to the floor is effectively a one-sided currency. The SNB has also kept the option of re-pegging weaker wide open, particularly if deflation risk remains high. That too would be consistent with some of the recommendations for escaping a liquidity trap.

 

10    Stepping back, one striking feature of the broad asset picture is how rewarding it has been in general to be long a combination of both equities and bonds. US stocks are roughly flat on the year, but bond yields are much lower. The same was true last year. And since the market bottom in March 2009, equities have nearly doubled, while 10-year yields have fallen. On a day-to-day basis, the two assets remain firmly negatively correlated. But the negative trend in bond yields has been powerful and persistent, even with equities still much higher than a couple of years ago. While there is a tendency to see this as a “disconnect” between the two markets (with the general assumption from macro types that the bond market is “smarter”), we have shown before that this is in fact the “typical” outcome after housing busts, during stagnations, in sub-par recoveries and of course in periods when yields are aggressively targeted as a tool for easing. Any shift towards cyclical optimism should see yields move higher in the near term. But with sluggish growth likely to continue for some time, the message continues to be that long bond positions have remained a better hedge than you might expect for risk assets even with yields at historical lows.

It certainly seems like Goldman remains less sanguine than an exploding US equity market might suggest and we tend to agree that ignoring the fact that the EU Summit conclusions leave more questions than answers, it may allow us to focus once again on the fundamentals and those fundamentals are not a rosy as many would have us believe.

 

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Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:18 | 1818297 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

look to Japan the next disaster

Weinberg Says Japan Headed for Economic Meltdown (Audio)

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vDIUlY817LmI.mp3

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:29 | 1818362 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Absolutely watch the yen. Kyle Bass says the chart is trying for a blowoff top.

That one will be big.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 16:08 | 1818407 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

agreed.  US & Europe printing, pushes down USD-JPY, causing BOJ to intervene, and conduct its own QE.  This pushes agents into commodities, stoking global inflation, or into current account surplus currencies/assets. 

 

Now that the big 3 Central Banks (US-EU-JPY) are at risk of a liquidity trap, effective world interest rates >> 0, so agents will scour for hard assets to anchor purchasing power.

 

The results being higher input costs for developed countries, and currency inflows into China, coupled with high inflation, raises the likelihood of a hard landing, as Chinese policies to course correct, are overwhelmed by foreign macro-conditions seeking refuge in the Middle Kingdom.

 

In developed countries, high input cost, causes firm to stall on hiring.   While higher CPI causes consumer to consume less, since it's effectively shifts thier Income constraint line down, so they will buy fewer goods--likely cuasing a spike in jobless claims.  This causes a negative feedback loop in the economy, forcing governments to intervene with monetary stimulus, which pushes more agents out of fiat currencies, and into hard assets, or current account surplus currency/assets.

Then we head into hyper-stagflation & hyper-inflation.

Then guess what? The great reset. The global economy has adjusted.. All the misallocation of capital, and debt from the bubble years are reconciled.  .  There is no free lunch.  The longer government distort, or kick the can down the road, the more extreme the adjustment.

 

As economies collapse, there are no faith in any institutions, or party politics, and the people rise up.  Societies will collapse, and hard liners will move to take control, and provide a Hobbesian remedy to the anarchy.  But this will be in the context of a world littered with unguarded nuclear weapons.

 

The economic consequences of maintaining the debt peace!

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 16:03 | 1818501 rumblefish
rumblefish's picture

do you have a reference for Mr. Basses comment?

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:15 | 1818298 eureka
eureka's picture

Yeah, it's bad - US might take a lesson from EU - give US banks a 50% haircut...

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:16 | 1818301 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

Yes to bailouts, yes to EFSF, yes to leverage. Because if you restrain the ponzi it will just take longer.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:17 | 1818306 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh dont spoil the bulltard party, all anyone cares about today bottom line is worthless stock indexes are up. Silver, oil, dollar, none of that matters.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:17 | 1818310 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Attention shifts away from Eurozone for only a short period. US & China will continue same policies, OWS will probably be the next (short term) focus.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:20 | 1818320 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

OWS?  Yeah, probably, since I see that the attempts to generate an outrage about that lard assed snail fighter getting kicked off of Dancing with the Stars isn't getting much traction.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:18 | 1818311 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

'Fundamentals' don't matter anymore.    Speculation has replaced it.   This is otherwise known as betting on either red or black, or to hedge, both.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:18 | 1818312 SeverinSlade
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So to sum things up:

The rumor mill is dead (for now).  Now it's time for the market to focus on fundamentals: corporate earnings (darlings AMZN, NFLX, etc. have all disappointed), economic growth, etc. 

Is the DOW really going to shoot straight up to 14,000?  I think not.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:21 | 1818326 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

Well now that Greece is "fixed," isn't there ONLY bad news in the future?

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:39 | 1818392 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

It really is disgusting when you think about it.  Bankers love this crazy volatility.  Right when the market seemed destined to slide off a cliff and EVERYONE was going short, the bankers quickly covered and went long.  Now that the shorts are beginning to capitulate and are panicking, I think it's safe to say that the bankers are going to start (if they haven't already) selling into strength all while piling on more shorts.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:19 | 1818316 HellZero
HellZero's picture

Just waiting for the end of day market ramp up

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:21 | 1818327 jcaz
jcaz's picture

50% haircut to China, via a stronger Dollar-  you want your money back?   No prob....

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:21 | 1818332 sabra1
sabra1's picture

my gut tells me this ramp up is followed by huge downgrades coming after the bell! insiders will all short seconds before the bell, leaving longs calling for their mommas!

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:25 | 1818339 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I love the line 'The rumor mill is now over'....LOL until when tomorrow morning? After the bell today? All they have is rumors. 

Load up the bulls and drop it next.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:41 | 1818401 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I suppose they could begin floating rumors about a massive economic boom currently underway in Europe and the US...but I don't think anyone is stupid enough to believe those rumors...

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:26 | 1818341 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Hope you are right....but can't say I am going to bet on that.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:32 | 1818370 HellBoy6
HellBoy6's picture

I would expect to see futures trade off after the close.  Who know what will happen tomorrow morning but this rally shouldn't be bought with vigor, expect some kind of test of what looks like now was prior resistance...

 

Don't fight the tape.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:32 | 1818374 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

+400+

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:23 | 1818335 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

And Goldman always means what it says...

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:24 | 1818337 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

I'm afraid that.................."Despite all our rage we are still just rats in a cage".   I'll say that's how I feel today.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:25 | 1818340 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

its official all the shorts are k####ed

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:27 | 1818347 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK well if thats true, then next we head down.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:26 | 1818343 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

There is something weird and unreal to this crazy rally. VIX doesn't want to go below 25 - should be closer to 20 now. I feel like watching a surrealistic movie on my computer screen.

Something is up in the air, and it is not fart. I get a feeling that a major event is coming.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:28 | 1818355 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep. Anyone who thinks all this is to just 'keep the Ponzi rolling' are nuts. We'll wake up to the next 9-11 one morning real soon.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:27 | 1818346 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Who cares that the SHTF next week.  We're up 4% today on nothing!! Yay!!  Efficient markets! Efficient markets! Gooooo Efficient markets!!

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:28 | 1818351 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

No way this is just a corrolation to the EUR/USD...

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:28 | 1818357 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Immediate crises averted in EU and it's back to the new normal, where things still suck.

 

BTW, the consumer spending spike vs poor consumer sentiment might also be telling us people are dumping their USD, not on trinkets, but on survival goods such as food storage, guns, and ammo. I know a lot of people who are.  Don't fight the FED... unless you really really mean it.

 

 

 

 

 

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:31 | 1818368 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep that was my conclusion as well....just because people are spending doesnt mean its on IGear trinkets.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:54 | 1818454 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Perfectly logical conclusion considering that both AAPL and AMZN just missed earnings expectations.  When was the last time AAPL sold fewer iphones than it projected?

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:48 | 1818441 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

You could be right.  I mean after all, gun ownership has surged to 47%...And I don't think people were buying their guns with gold and silver...

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 20:51 | 1818587 citrine
citrine's picture

Actually, consumer spending on seasonally unadjusted basis was down in September by 4.96%

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:28 | 1818358 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

repeat after me...I will NEVER short the equity market again, I will NEVER short the equity market again etc etc etc. I DO own gold (Swiss PAMPs). I DO own 10 acres of land in New Zealand. But I will NEVER short equities EVER again

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:29 | 1818359 oceanview76
oceanview76's picture

410 points.  Un-f'king - believable.  GS and C up 10.5% on the day.  Did those individual stock circuit breakers trip today?  Or do they automatically turn them off for rally mode?

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:31 | 1818365 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Wonder why the Eurotard banks didn't recap immediately, knowing this rampage would happen?

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:32 | 1818369 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Blah, blah blah..the market is up 400 points. Bears need to lick their wounds and admit Temporary defeat. This market is going to drift higher now that Europe has kicked the can for a few months. There is nothing to stop the melt up until the debt commitee fails to reach and agreement / Downgrades of France or the US again / 4th Qtr GDP comes in negative.

I have been a bear since 2007. There is no way America or Wurope can grow their way out of this. But I am also smart enough to know when I can't fight coordinated fraud.

I am frustrated and NOT long as I would rather sit on the sidelines but in a few weeks or so I will think about re-entering some shorts.

No one likes a sore loser. Take your lumps and move on.... The Fraudsters are still winning the future....for now.

 

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:40 | 1818397 oceanview76
oceanview76's picture

Just to clarify Archimedes, I'm not a sore loser.  I'm short, but I'm hedged appropriately for this type of b.s. (put ratio back spreads w/short horizontals offsetting my long legs) and as such I had a very nice day, although if we were down 400 points I would have had a spectacular day.  I'm just expressing disbelief in the fact that this b.s. "solution" out of Europe can trigger a historic move in the equity markets and that the markets appear to be this unhealthy as a whole.    

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:44 | 1818410 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Hey sorry,

My rant is not directed at your post or any one post. Just the collection of posts for the day.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:48 | 1818437 oceanview76
oceanview76's picture

Understood, no prob.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:36 | 1818382 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

20% down, then 20% up.

The music is blasting so we all must dance.

#monstermash

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:44 | 1818419 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

thxz!  i needed that!

it was a graveyard smash
they caught on in a flash

more popcorn?

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:40 | 1818396 falak pema
falak pema's picture

now the markets are getting irrelevant more and more as they need to be totally revamped.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:41 | 1818402 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

who wrote this?

dom. wilson = Robo_T?

 

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:49 | 1818442 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

"and those fundamentals are not a rosy as many would have us believe..."

Typed by another BBQ's shorty that missed the rally and got carried out on a stretcher...

Just BTFD and SHORT CASH...

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:49 | 1818443 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

Yes, Archimedes is right. Lets move on.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 15:55 | 1818459 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

the whole market is a penny stock, pump and dump, promote and distribute did you think it was anything else?

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 16:00 | 1818484 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Nice dip there, am now on the sidelines, too.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 16:10 | 1818532 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

Look Beyond Europe and you will see the FEMA family  camp ground !

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 16:28 | 1818582 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  You can't write this shite! The GDP beats by .1%, and every single [ POS ] , idea out of Europe's [ MORON-O-CRATS] has been on the the ponzi plate for months. Chinas' RE, market is on the skids. Japan couldn't find the broad side of a barn!The U.S housing numbers are abysmal! (pending home -4.6%). Rampant unemployment, with a protester on every corner.

 

   Where in the hell did all this Quasi ( QE-3) banter come from?  I thought [ chair satan], fired the the last { salvo}, of his demonic SEED!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 04:48 | 1820060 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

DAX monthly chart at blog shows recent bullish candle revealing aggressive short covering rally enclosed within big picture bearish pattern.

Bullish USD weekly/monthly and bearish SP500/DOW monthly
charts will eventually ensure a violent reversal of equity uptrend.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!