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The Lull
From Mark J. Grant, author of 'Out of the Box and onto Wall Street'
The Longer View
Saturdays are good days for mulling about. We are not rushing from meeting to meeting and facing the aggravation of lawyers and auditors and the countless personal problems of ruffled employees; we can take some time to actually ponder what we face. There is no substitute for thinking, assessing the facts and making some decisions based upon our collective deductive abilities. So then let us begin.
"Yes, I have a turn both for observation and for deduction. The theories which I have expressed there, and which appear to you to be so chimerical are really extremely practical -- so practical that I depend upon them for my bread and cheese."
-Sherlock Holmes
The LTRO
More than $1.3 Trillion handed to the European banks at a low interest rate to be used how they like. The maturity is three years for most of it so that it has to be paid back and there is the rub of course. Liquidity issues for the banks and then the sovereigns fixed in the short term but not so fast I tell you. As the European banks deleverage, as mandated by the Basel III rules, their balance sheets will deteriorate as a result. The debt to assets and the debt to cash ratios of the European banks will significantly worsen so that I predict a continuing stream of downgrades which are quite unavoidable two to three quarters out along with an increase in counterparty risk. The money that has been used in the short term to buoy the sovereign debt prices of countries such as Italy and Spain will begin to dry up and this will be especially notable for debt five to ten years out as the banks are fearful of using short term money to buy longer term assets so that the knee jerk reaction accompanying the surreptitious printing of money by the ECB will come to a halt and reverse as the structural problems of Portugal, Italy and Spain do not disappear by the use of liquidity. It is always the case that solvency is helped by liquidity in the briefest of terms but the band aid never cures the patient of its ills. As Spain misses its deficit goals and they demand the relaxation of the rules Austria replies with negative vehemence so that it will either be a change of rules or forced austerity or a large fine by the EU for not complying. No pleasant possibilities but one or the other will be the conclusion and then not just in Spain but likely in Italy as standards of living decline and social unrest continues. As it dawns on us that Europe’s Quantitative Easing has ended then the course reverses direction as easy money dries up. You may recall that when QE ended in America that the stock market dropped approximately 50% in value so that as America ends its easing and Europe ends it easing the stock markets will not be such a great place to park money and this, coupled with a deepening recession in Europe, will play havoc with the world’s equity markets in the next few quarters I think. The collective “WE” has a mindset these days that does not want to worry about China, 2012 as the first year when Japan has to depend upon outsiders to finance its debt, the escalating price of oil, the end of QE in both America and Europe, the threat of Iran attacking our battleships, the recession in Europe or the structural problems of many of the nations on the Continent; we have been lulled into a state of lethargy by all of the printing of money but long experience in the financial markets has taught me that easy money has its consequences and that the rubber band when stretched past the constraints of elasticity snaps back and always with force.
“Excess generally causes reaction, and produces a change in the opposite direction, whether it be in the seasons, or in individuals, or in governments.”
-Plato
Greece
By March 9 we will all see who signs up for the Greek bond swap and who does not. I expect consequences here that vary from bad to far worse. If not enough participants sign up then the deal fails and the Bull droppings hit the fan while the Bear cranks the engine as Greece does not receive any new funding. If the deal ekes by then the “Collective Action Clause” will surely be triggered which means a new assessment by the ISDA, a defining moment for the CDS market, and law suits instigated around the globe. It appears that the law firm of Bingham McCutchen is leading the early charge and if you are a hold-out from the Greek bond swap you may wish to get in touch with them. Then if the “CAC” is utilized there will also be more ratings downgrades and “Default” will be the operative word which will force selling at many institutions. Currently the ECB will no longer accept Greek bonds as collateral and they have thrown a lifeline to the Greek banks but a failed deal will cause further large write downs at the French and German banks and no such lifeline has been extended to them and if one were it would cause consternation and quite negative knee-jerk reactions for their bonds. Then I have the suspicion, given recent comments from various German officials, that everything is not as it seems as Germany may be trying to force Greece from the EU and if more austerity measures are demanded as the Greek economy reported out even worse financials, then the Greek “bend over and take it” position may become unsustainable. This game is not over or close to being over; in fact, the real show has just gotten underway.
“Greece is reneging on programs to spur its economic competitiveness that it signed with Germany since July, calling into question its willingness and capacity to revitalize its economy.”
-German Economy Minister Philipp Roesler
Portugal and Possibly Spain
Portugal cannot make it; that is my honest assessment. They will be back at the till soon which will provide us a new adventure and a new focus for our attention. The numbers are not big but how the EU handles will be and we will all get to see if Greece was a one-off situation or not. Spain has already fallen behind and they have regional debts, not reported on the Spanish balance sheet, that are slowly coming out into the open air and I think their financial condition is far worse than is generally realized so that I expect real trouble to be forthcoming in this country. Any notion that Europe is out of the woods is a flight of not only fancy but fantasy and I place zero credence in this notion. We are currently in the Quantitative Easing lull; nothing more.
Don Quixote: Dost not see? A monstrous giant of infamous repute whom I intend to encounter.
Sancho Panza: It's a windmill.
Don Quixote: A giant. Canst thou not see the four great arms whirling at his back?
Sancho Panza: A giant?
Don Quixote: Exactly.
France
April 22 marks the date of the French elections. Unless Joan of Arc reappears the socialist candidate, Francois Hollande, will be the winner either in the first election or the May 6 runoff election. He is not any friend to the banking institutions, wants to lower the retirement age, increase governmental spending, impose a tax bracket as high as 75% and is culturally and financially in direct opposition to the German positions. As spring unfolds there is going to be a quite serious rift that will take place between these two countries and the position of Germany is going to be quite isolated with the very real possibility of unintended consequences as a result of what is demanded by the European Union and what Germany refuses to do. We may well see a full blown German revolt.
“Chateau and hut, stone face and dangling figure, the red stain on the stone floor, and the pure water in the village well--thousands of acres of land--a whole province of France--all France itself--lay under the night sky, concentrated into a faint hairbreadth line.”
-Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities
The IMF & Europe
They apparently have only offered $13Bn to help Greece in Bailout II. They said they might offer more if the firewalls are expanded. Germany has stated they will not expand them. If the German position holds then the EU bailout is $17Bn short and the additional money has been approved by no one. With both the ECB and the EIB exempting themselves from the Greek “CAC” one wonders if the IMF will not be next. Subordination to two institutions is bad enough; I fear there will be three. The laws for European bonds are clearly not the same as for American bonds and this should be carefully noted and spreads for all the bonds in Europe will be adjusted accordingly over time and as the injection of liquidity dies on the vine. There is no brandishing of any sword that is necessary to now correctly identify that private bond holders are now second class citizens in Europe.
The Lull
We are in “The Lull” which has been caused by the injection of capital by the Fed and by the ECB. This is exactly, exactly, what took place I remind you during the weeks after the subprime mess exploded. Massive injections of capital, run-ups in equities, compression in bonds, higher prices for commodities and then the reversal of course took place. When easing ends then the course back tracks and I predict a re-do of this in the coming months. It will not take some trigger event, though there may well be one, to cause this; just the easy money being placed and no more manufactured money to follow.
“As the well runs dry the throat parches and dehydration begins.”
-The Wizard
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Well, we sit here an post post post... Thankfully, as least Tea Party members take action.We must economically demonstrate our disgust. No purchases as a group for a day - for some persons who are economically strapped this isn't hard.
The economy will only get worse.
I dunno, you can see some really green shoots if you look really, really hard...
Sorry, those are green shoots on a turd.
How dare you talk about POTUS that way.
You think he'd cook me up a new birth certificate? I could use as new identity as a rich bitch or sumpin'.
That's TIOTUS...
Teleprompterin' Idiot of The United States...
There. Fixed it for you...
because of the turd
You know if you pick and eat them, they cause giggles
Apologies, OT, Susan Lindauer, second american to be indicted with the Patriot Act and jailed for over a year, is finally able to give her information in this video of the 9/11 inside job. The gov't prosecutors were arguing for a chemical lobotomy and holding her for 10 years without trial, unfriggin real.
http://2012indyinfo.com/2012/03/01/cia-asset-susan-lindauer-can-now-speaks-10-years-after-2001-9-11/
If she is credible, why is she on Russia Today--a horribly propagandistic network that does propaganda horribly--instead of, say, 60 Minutes, Dateline, etc?
Get thee behind me, Satan.
Not my conspiracy, but maybe it's because the Jew York Media don't care about tyranny?
if it quacks like a duck, walks like a duck and taste like duck .. well ..
not much of a theory is it? more like a science.
Lilguy thinks the MSM in Amerika is on the level,,,WTF!!! It's all one creeping coup wake the fuck up little guy.
Exactly.
Why not FOX, CNN, MSNBC and other networks that aren't owned by politically influenced corporate entities?
If you look up propaganda...
You will fucking see 60 Minutes, Dateline and the US corporate whore media next to the Soviet Pravda and the Neocon... I mean Nazi Reich Ministry of Public Enlightenment, there Einstein...
"If she is credible, why is she on Russia Today--a horribly propagandistic network that does propaganda horribly--instead of, say, 60 Minutes, Dateline, etc?"
Why do you think?
That is like directing a cucumber to do Algebra..
1st place, idiot comment of the day.
I hope you were being sarcastic in implying 60 minutes and Dateline were not propaganda.
Thanks. NO need to apologize.
Susan Lindauer obviously spoke at an American hotel somewhere.
The fact that only Russia Today is airing this simply adds to the fact that corporate media, corporate finance and corporate warfare and corporate government are one gigantic conspiracy.
What else needs to happen before the people get their act together and start the process?
THEY KILLED OVER 3000 PEOPLE ON 9/11. Corporate media, corporate finance, corporate warfare, corporate government ARE THE ENEMIES of YOU and YOUR STATE!
Time heads start rolling over this. America needs Nuremberg Trials in order to ever regain some iota of credibility.
The country needs to suffer a deep shame over the fact they supported a war based on lies. Suck it up. You know who you are.
"a war based on lies"? more like six or seven (afghanistan, iraq, pakistan, libya, yemen, syria and in my book palestine is a war dating from 1948). of course it really is "a war" fought on different fronts at different times. as the oppression heightens, eyes are opening around the world. wonder which will win.
my personal gratitude chubbar, for the outstanding link
thanks :-))
Ps. ~1.5 hrs + 5min was worth it
Can you give a brief synopsis of the long video? I watched the 5 minute vid and she just seemed deranged.
"I can assure you that all of the terrorists were removed from Libya by 1998/9"
I stand corrected. Logically, and practically, neither Tea Party folk NOR Occupy Wall St folk will succeed. Odds are monstrously against them. Best course of action: nothing but enjoy the view.
@ Every Third Word
Apparently, folks who consume gasoline got the memo about not spending 3 months ago, and they have complied:
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=M
As well, the Ceridian UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index is heading down again, just recently printing its lowest number since April, 2010.
http://www.ceridianindex.com/
If you are not familiar with this index, it registers diesel truck fuel purchases across the entire US. The signal it is sending just now is that demand for diesel fuel should now start to track the already collapsed demand for retail gasoline. Give it 30 more days, and folks will start screaming about this one...mark my words.
Gasoline and soon diesel are skipping "the Lull" and moving right on towards collapse mode.
Gasoline consumption is 30% down from same time frame a year ao. Consistently over multiple months.
At the same time, Chevy Volts are stuffed into the channel but there's no demand for that vehicle and people at GM get laid off.
So, alternative fuels or increased mpgs can't be the reason for the collapse. Not that I would really believe that anyway.
Tea Party?
They got co-opted about 46 seconds after a few of them got into office. Then all of sudden they couldn't wait to vote yes on the Patriot Act extension and the debt ceiling increase.
Please, child.
European bank balance sheets are just fine after the LTRO's - it's not like they have to pay it back in 36 months... right?
It's not like they're going to pay it back at all...
OT
dug up the transcript and clip of the Limbaugh student that O called a slut
ain't life a bitch when you have to pay your own way. Tough shit.
I guess times have changed. The fastest 1/2 mile I ever ran was to the 7-11 after my date told me "I'm not on the pill, so if we're going to go any further...." I didn't even hear the rest of the sentence.
Young women these days are such drunken whores that they need to be on the pill at all times because half the time they don't know the name of the dude whose penis is inside her on any given night.
that's a bit harsh...
I mean you usually have to at least tell them your name...
Well, a name. They don't check photo ids, do they?
You can't just make unsubstatiated claims like that on ZH; this is a cynical and doubting group. You need corraborative support. Names, phone numbers, email addy's, etc. of these drunken harlots please.
I guess her black boyfriends can't use their SNAP cards to get condoms or she knows they'll never use them anyway - just get the black baby and drop out of college tramp
Women have a RIGHT to stuff as many dicks in their gaping vaginas as possible. To walk around full of cum and not get pregnant. And if they do, they have a RIGHT to a tax payer funded abortion.
You fuck'in jack-offs! Are'nt you a little off subject...........
Truly one of the most depressing thread-hijacks I've ever witnessed here.
Can't you guys all go back to hating on niggers and jews or something?
And how!
That's some tight shit. You're alright.
Yup. blunderdog and sanovabeach are the only two guys on ZH who don't understand woman. ;)
Well for sure, I don't understand "woman," but I've got a pretty good working knowledge of men who hate women.
It's all fine, by the way, I just wish you guys would have the balls to own up to it. If you hate women, don't use a political disagreement as your excuse to make up hateful shit about someone you don't know.
Be a man, assert your hatred simply and honestly, and let's move on.
Well.....OK, I guess, Blunderdog....
Unable to ascertain precisely from your post if you're a shrewish almost certainly lesbian female harridan, or a lisping pencil-necked male with oddly slender wrists and shoulders. IOW, can't quite tell whether you're a bitch or just a pussy. I don't hate "women" anymore than Shirley Sherrod hates white folks - just axx her! - but I sure as hell hate *you*, scooter. For that matter, I suppose it could be said that I hate....oh....98% of feminists of both genders. Not ALL of 'em, ya know: just the whiny hypocrites that want it both ways. Like Fluke! I too have a pretty good working knowledge of - is there a genderless pronoun yet? - wahtever the fuck you are: who stamp their little feet prettily and breathlessly insist that any criticism of any womyn, no matter how much she deserves it *or initiated it* (Do try & remember: she lobbied to go on national TV and whine that she couldn't afford to fuck) means that somehow qualifies as 'men hating women'. ("Because teacher said so in college!") Who the fuck are you, anyway? Dead Swedish author and tireless pantywaist accuser of men ("All men are sexist pigs except of course me!") Steig Larsson?
Having said that, I feel much better and am now ready to move on. Does that manly, simple & honest hatred meet with your approval?
Who was talking to you?
It's interesting to see all the projection, I guess. A woman says her health insurance program should cover contraception, and look at some of the responses here. Posts about being a slut, fucking 800 guys bareback, a "right" to fuck, etc etc.
What does any of that have to do with anything? Not even to get into the fact taht this sort of hostility has to be dumped in a thread about completely unrelated matters. I know there aren't enough unmoderated message boards to spew bigotry, so if it has to here, fine, but it could've at least been covered in a thread about health insurance, couldn't it?
It's always been a sad characteristic of the social conservatives to believe that any group they consider inferior *deserves* to be attacked. Which overall is about what you'd expect from a bunch of cowardly pussies who don't have the balls to go out and earn or take whatever it is they think they deserve.
Since you asked, I'll disclose the following: 40 year old straight male, 5'10" 200lbs, squat 240/bench 180, and I confess I probably would enjoy the opportunity to meet you face to face so we could properly explore your hatred, little man.
But what are you really so angry about?
I would like all of those who advertise on that self righteous mouth piece's show pull their advertising dollars and see him sink.
Don't forget doctor shopping pill popper. He gives conservatism a bad name.
Not so much....I'm not payen for some college student's contraception....if she wants it she can buy her own or have her boyfriend buy it. BUT I AM NOT PAYING for it.....at least Rush paid for his pills, thats more than all these whiny bastards/bitchez do....
what really is happening is that chick is getting paid to cry in court for big pharma.. this is a big payday for pharma if they get it onto insurance
BINGO! You win for the most thought provoking post today. That is what I call insight!
Being a slutty whore and going bareback with 800 random guys a year is now a fundamental right for American women. Get with the times grandpa.
and being a viagra-eating stud sticking his naked, unprotected dick in 800 random women a year is now a fundamental right for American men. Don't forget that.
/sarc
Maybe you're being sarcastic ... but you seem to have a problem with women. You ought to look for a good therapist, it helps.
"You seem to have a problem with women". No, I'd say a better and much more accurate assessment would be that the guy has a problem with women freeloaders. YOU, Skillet, seem to have a problem with women being criticized, especially by a mere male.
Your last line indicates you seem to have some (extensive?) experience with therapy. Perhaps it's time to go back for a refresher course.
They're just trying to make it easier for college co-eds to pay for their tuition. If insurance companies pay for their contraceptives then they can become escorts. Consider it a subsidy. As for the guys? Join the military.
Just as soon as MSNBC is out of business, nose picker, stop eating it its not gold..
you can get a condom and a slurpee at the same store for about $5. Leave me alone collectivist skank.
ot she can suck a cock for a pack of 5 no doubt
But if she was a collectivist skank, wouldn't you see it as your own interest to help her avoid reproducing herself? That's how I'd see it from your viewpoint...
Yes, by choosing not to participate with her in her hobby.
Socializing poor choices is a path to despotism.
(However, I will credit you for one of the better disguises of a libtard argument, Jethro.)
I couldn't afford law school, where's my handout?
Amerika doesn't need any more attorneys (highest per capita of any nation)...
No handout for you...
Perhaps she should explore the delights of anal sex.
[Assuming it is legal where she lives. I do not condone breaking the law.]
Bukkake?
She also serves, who also serves.
Only a cartoon drummer could get away with that...
I'd be more worried about what Marla would condone... Tyler runs a clean, clean website...
I would loved to see Ron Paul suggest that to her(if he were on that congressional comittee).
Congressman Paul: "maybe you should have them pull out and cum on your face. Or, or, he could stick it in your ass. Uh, uh, maybe you could masturbate him...but for heaven's sake, if your going to let him pay you for a fuck, GET PAYMENT IN GOLD!"
Jwoop66 FTW!
Perhaps she should explore the delights of anal sex.
Jeez... don't you know where lawyers come from ????
Take it up the ass, swallow, or go for the target tatoo. Fixed.
I agree, but it is depressing, so do I click the green or the red arrow?
Depressed people click both... or neither...
36 months from now- "Banks? What banks?"
...as much as they say there won't be another LTRO, there will be if things get bad enough. It's all Bullshit!!
mean reversion bitchez!
When the well drys out it is time to look for something to quench the thirst and me thinks there is an oasis still left on this planet, but one which has different rules than which mankind is playing with as of late.
Heineken...
There are two paths to take:
Educate the masses and innovate, or go with the path of destruction and genocide.
IF you are an "elite" who's been sufficiently insulated from the unwashed masses, which do you think would be the best option? So yes, the problem of 'scarcity' of resources can either be solved by forcing innovation, or reducing competition for those resources. And do you think "resources" will be an issue if you say, cut the world population down from 7,000,000,000, to something more manageable?
And it's a shame that the path of "death" is the one we'll take. Imagine what all these billions of minds would be capable of if they were just educated. Humanity always seems to just waste itself.
yep....
“Ending human population growth is almost certainly a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for preventing catastrophic global climate change. Indeed, significantly reducing current human numbers may be necessary in order to do so.”
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.153/pdf
If we are talking about the same oasis you do not wnat to go there, nose picker. Your side is probably not ready for that..
Thank you Tyler. BIS has created a monetary reform package that will cripple this entire globe. USA goes on-line later this year.
Edit: Europe is the testing ground for Basel III. Just ask yourself, how is it working out?
not exactly halftime in America, more like the 2 minute drill at the end of the 4th and behind by 1 trillion points.
SO....you're telling me there's a chance?!?! I read ya.
Never give up eh. I'm going long Greek bonds, and US T's as well...
You would be wise to hedge that with CDS. Just saying...
and they'll be triggered when...
I'm going all in for the bouce mate, fuck it...
+1 for the D&D reference..
Not halftime in America, Uno. Feels more like sudden death overtime.
If you can dodge a wrench, you can dodge a ball.
Yeah, but we still have all 3 time outs :)
Yeah...like the Ravens. :)
One way or another, this darkness has got to end
- Robert Hunter-
The wheel is turning
and you can't slow down
You can't let go
and you can't hold on
You can't go back
and you can't stand still
If the thunder don't get you
then the lightning will
-Robert Hunter-
I was thinking Hell in a Bucket.
All Quiet on the Western Front
Lulled to sleep before the shrieks.
yeah...my hope is to die peacefully in my sleep....not like those passengers in gandpa's car, screaming and flailing
Nervous Ben.............will be stammering ,,,worse than Paulson.......uh,uh, uh, uh, uh ,uh
Worse than TOTUS without his script.
Can easing really end at this point? It's like a patient in the hospital on life support. We keep unhooking him, then his vitals fall, and we quickly hook him back up. What agony, just pull the plug already... or shoot him in the head
The good doctors will make every attempt to keep the "patient" alive until after the election. Only then will the patient be allowed to die. At this point the chief of staff, Dr. Franken-Obama-Stein, will rebuild the corpse into the monster he always dreamed of - an over-taxed, over-regulated zombie dependent of the Federal government.
The good doctors will make every attempt to keep the patient alive...,
until the insurance runs out.
And if, as we get closer to the election, Obama finds he cannot win... he will leave as many turds in the punchbowl as possible in order to ensure the next President cannot possibly succeed.
I do not think we can escape from the approaching END.I am sick looking for possibillities where to sent my PMs.Neither Vienna or Zurich seems safer for me when shtf.last resort i see is-sell now and buy farmland in country,where is NO tax on farmlands.Happy weekend to all ZH-ers.
the lull in the hull of a titanical bull run. lol! So say the men of MSM.
The Lull(aby)
Go back to sleep
Look at the Fed to buy stocks indirectly through other government while letting commodities like oil and gold drift lower. It is right in Beranke's playbook he published.
Charles Dickens knew his England and imagined his France...
Keep in mind, this could go on for a very, very long time. Go about your lives, prepare, but keep on enjoying life.
I agree completely. We continually underestimate the ability of the powers that be to drag this out for a long time (years instead of months)
Nice description of bubble-blowing, Plato.
So, Sherlock, what deductive path did you follow to arrive at the conclusion that the manufactured money well will run dry?
"...the rubber band when stretched past the constraints of elasticity snaps back..."
Actually, no. The rubberband will break when stretched past the constraints of elasticity. It will "snap back" when it is stretched within the constraints of elasticity:
http://www.break.com/usercontent/2008/10/Rubberband-Gun-584797
Oh it's no "Lull" like in 07. Not comparable. Back then deflation wasn't a prevailing force.
Housing prices weren't in free fall, there weren't 40 millon on food stamps, there wasn't 8+% unemployment and 16% underemployment. Vehicle miles driven by US motorists wasn't dropping. States and municipalities weren't in or near bankruptcy and laying off. Austerity wasn't the official policy of governments in the developed world. Quite the contrary.
Europe and especially Asia were super- booming in 07. The "new dynamic BRICs" was a catch-phrase repeated over and over.
In other words, there was a high level of global demand and domestic demand that's dropping now.
What is the same is the constant climb in the cost of necessities, reflected in increasing cost of living, cost of doing business and even cost of working. And it ain't just crude oil. It's raw materials across the board compared with 07. It's the cost of home ownership, of getting an education, of doing retail banking, of insuring things, of health care and the cost of services like telecom, security and even entertainment
Because there was no reset allowed in 08, the productive economy tanked and is still deflating, but the Fed and global central banks are fighting deflation which is keeping prices high or boosting them in the face of decline. That's Biflation. Lotsa Luck.
no...ahem..."prices" are falling anywhere right now. we shall see after these tornadoes have ravaged Indiana if fuel prices suddenly soar. people are terrified right now and they should be. forget the "how is everything being paid for" and start asking "the who".
The sense of urgency is alive and well in Greece! Check out this video of middle-class people trying to make ends meet.. http://www.reuters.com/video/2012/03/03/cash-strapped-greeks-snap-up-cut-price-p?videoId=231171125&videoChannel=1
I find it a little disturbing that it took a college professor to reinvent the farmers' market model.
How far from common sense has modern society removed itself?
I did one better one I was coming back from riding my MTB.. Saw the mexamericans packing brussel sprouts.. Go up to one and ask in espanol to buy a box. He refers me to the white plantation owner...Strike up a conversation and he hooks it up with a entire case of brussel sprouts about 40lbs and a case of huge half moon bay artichokes for 5 bucks...Said he was going to get a fancy coffee..
hope you didn't buy the farmer's daughter's sprouts near the airport. those have lots of pesticides in them. the ones south of town are much better... nothing like artichoke hearts and brussel sprouts like the ones at the drunken festival!
in anticipation of domestic social unrest, our supposedly partisan congress just passed another anti liberty law, this time stripping americans of their first amendment rights to assemble peacefully. funny how those repubs and dems get along swimmingly when it comes to the erosion of our bill of rights.
http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/9994/Government_Outrage
only 3 dissenting votes in the house, one of them being ron paul
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=h2011-149&sort=vote
and, not surprisingly, this was passed under suspension of house rules so it could pass immediately and avoid those pesky rules to keep our congressmen in check...........
here is the rollcall...contact your representatives and let them know you know.........
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=h2011-149&sort=vote
Imagine a multitude of core units running to one electrical socket to integrate global dependence. Think about this statement. Observe your surroundings. You’ll figure it out in time.
A scenario how things might start to unfold very soon with a critical poiint in May 2012 (EUR down, USDx up, Silver UP, DJIA UP, GOLD steady for some time (4-5 months behind silver) , EUROzone inflation-all events within 2012, relatively shortterm). But may be without specific critical event. Some of the prediction charts show how it unravels later in 2013 ( stocks move down, gold up etc. ) :
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=36724#p36724
Hedge funds may be the ones to bring the charade down after politicians and banksters have shown to be hopelessly corrupt and worthless. My hat is off to them and their last remant of the free market.
Someday soon the headlines will read "Unrest in the West"--- (hopefully)
Obey your thirst bitches
'It will not take some trigger event, though there may well be one, to cause this; just the easy money being placed and no more manufactured money to follow.
“As the well runs dry the throat parches and dehydration begins.”
-The Wizard'
Eh?
I think he might be wrong about no more newly minted money to follow. But we need that dive down first to give Bennieboy the excuse to help out the banks again. The same pattern, over and over, but with smaller 'recoveries' each time, till the whole thing collapses (currencies) and then gold goes into hiding for a while, emerging at a new recapitising level north of $60,000 (but physical only, so don' go messing with GLD or similar crap).
They are not done taking the Euro back to 1.50. The price is set by central bankers, not by the market.
And you keep referring to some post liquidity crash that took place after 2008 injections stopped. What crash was that? When did the liquidity injections stop? And by the way, 2 days after 700 billion was given to the banks for free, isn't a little soon to be calling for a crash?
I will never understand you post 2008 bears who can't figure out how much money we are printing, why it cannot stop, and the effect money printing has asset prices. How hard does this math need to be beaten into your heads? Paper money is dying. Anything that touches it will die right along with it.
You are correct, the market isn't allowed to crash anymore barring the failure for key legisglation to pass through congress. Also, Bondzilla has been wacked.
That's why tech industry is being sold as safe haven. The math mystery has been exposed. Placing serfs on a non cash system will kick the can down the road a little further.
The basic formula for calculating the GDP is:
Y = C + I + E + G
Consolidating core manufacturing units will enable higher returns on risk investments. Price controls will become standardized. Do you remember the defunct GM Saturn division? No hassle pricing strategy put the division out of business.
Y = G
That's what you really mean now, right?
the effect money printing has asset prices. ??
Have they printed enough money to cover the losses on bankers paper assets and assorted derivatives ?
I am constantly reminded of one of the downsides to Bernanke's ZIRP. Look at all the public companies that are taking losses on their defined benefit plans.
Ultimately value is earned and not printed.
Yes its said there is a lull
Yet this little voice inside my skull
says all the plans are void and null
so get prepared for the coming cull
So many centuries
So many Gods
We were the prisoners of our own fantasy
But now we are marching Against these Gods
I'm the wizard, I will change it all
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_nmJgNcems
This is excellent, a good review of not if but when.
The Lull -a -buh - bye is going to be another doozy. Not the end of the world certainly
However, the gut and panic reactions will make it feel like it is for many.
It is being presaged in fractal form intraday with the only moves straight up or down.
No need for told you so.
Though equities might be quite a bit higher first. And then ... whoosh.
I was really in the"lull" last night. Local radar showed a tornado with a debris ball from being on the ground headed right for us. Then the Weather Channel broke in to show a strong tornado roation practically on top of us. Believe me, there's nothing worse than waiting for a big ass tornado that is 2 minutes away from where you are, and knowing there is nothing you can do about it. Luckily, it did not touch down here, and we had no damage, other than being scared witless.
Unfortunately the aftermath of our eonomic "lull" will probably not be so benign.
It was to be expected when the French manipulated an Italian into the cockpit of the ECB and another French agent into the IMF. The fact that Europe is a Museum is proven by the preservation of Old Line Banks instead of creating new Lending Institutions with a clean balance sheet. In fact Gordon Brown started this noxious process when he fell under the sway of the UBS Claque around Shriti Vadera. Being a complete numskull he was rolled just like Philip Snowden in 1931 and gave the Banks everything. Someone with intellect would have used The CIvil Contingencies Act 2004 and taken control of the Banks seizing the personal assets of the Directors and setting up a NEW BANK.
The New Bank could have then had the SME Lending segments of RBS and Lloyds/HBOS transferred into the new entity to stimulate lending and rollover with Deposits in Zombie Banks insured and Toxic Packages bundled into the remaining Zombie Bad Bank.
The ECB could have recapitalised good banks instead of Socialising the Banking System. Now Banking is going to be the Embalming Fluid for the Global Economy producing Stasis.
It is the Power of Cartels to preserve the marginal operator under a price umbrella through government action. The old adage that "A Bank is an organised confidence trick against the public underwritten by the government" has never been so conclusively proven. The fact that it has, and that any top-flight MBA knows his Classmates who went into Banking are the richest and the youngest retirees, makes it hard to understand how these economies are ever supposed to rebalance towards the kind of economy we had in the 1950s.
It seems the whole system is now unstable in the same way a fly-by-wire plane is unstable; praying that none of the equilibrating systems fail is a poor way to run a modern economy. It is getting to be the Knife-Edge situation which tips the whole economy into a deep hole with very little likelihood of stable growth
Well said, Bankers are nothing more than a pickpocket character out of Oliver Twist.
Oliver! (1968) You've got to pick a pocket or two
Yeah well, pick-pockets will take only what's in your wallet; but banksters will steal that and rob whole populations for generations to come...now that's one huge difference!
Time to back up the truck on physical gold and silver!
Dirty tricks in Washington State: Robocalls telling voters the caucus today is delayed.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017655731_king_county_gop_warns_of_robo.html
The King County Republican Party says it has received multiple reports of robo calls to voters falsely claiming the Saturday caucuses have been delayed a week. Lisa Shin, executive director of the King County GOP, said the calls came in Friday evening bearing the caller-identification number of the county party headquarters in Bellevue. The party was spreading a warning about the trickster calls via Facebook and Twitter Saturday morning. "It's unfortunate," Shin said. "We hope that people still participate." The precinct caucuses are set to run from 10 a.m. to noon, with results of the presidential straw poll to be reported by Saturday evening.
The lull from hyperventilation. What comes afterwards is either a full blown crisis or a calm, eerie peacefulness. Place your bets.
bankers should be shot on sight....
Tyler - post this for all to see please....
"William Bryan Jennings, Morgan Stanley’s bond-underwriting chief in the U.S., was charged with a hate crime in the stabbing of a New York City cab driver of Middle Eastern descent over a fare. Mohamed Ammar said the banker attacked him Dec. 22 with a 2½-inch blade and used racial slurs after a 40-mile ride from New York to the banker’s $3.4 million Darien, Connecticut home.
Jennings, who had attended a bank holiday party at a boutique hotel in Manhattan before hailing the cab, refused to pay the $204 fare upon arriving in his driveway, the driver said. When Ammar threatened to call the local police, Jennings said they wouldn’t do anything to help because he pays $10,000 in taxes, according to a report by the Darien police department."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-02/morgan-stanley-executive-jennin...
Goldman and Morgan employees should be banned for life from Administration positions. Among other things.
Banned from life.
I suggest the guillotine.
Banksters did it for teh lullz
One thing is for sure. There will be MANY more " all ins' " , on the way down, then there were on the way up!
Lull?
M2 Money Supply LOWEST SINCE 1959. M2 Money Supply UP 10% YoY. Housing prices continue to fall. Oil prices have been rising since Clinton. Gov't has seized control of the secondary mortgage market and calls the shots.
Look at charts of bank reserves. Reminds of the waves in "Perfect Storm" with Clooney and Wahlberg.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/03/02/reasons-that-the-feds-housing-policy-isnt-working/
Troika loans are already senior.
i was expecting something more along these lines.
I'm loving living out here in MT. 'Cause when the shit finally hits the fan, I'll be watching from the "high ground".
And I'm thinking the shit is finally "in the air". :)
I've been all over Montana and it is the last place I'd choose to be in an unraveling society. Little farmland and -15 degree winters....ya Montana sucks!