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Macro Commentary: The Endgame Of TBTF Banks And Rising Rates

Tyler Durden's picture

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Tue, 08/09/2011 - 10:53 | 1542477 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

Even dead cats bounce. :)

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:01 | 1542515 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Sometimes off of invisible ceilings...

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:11 | 1542553 trav7777
trav7777's picture

there's no room for rising rates because the respective economies cannot generate the yields necessary to pay those rates.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:22 | 1542624 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture


Unfortunately not many here seem to grasp 'raise rates!!1' is not a realizable idea.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 12:12 | 1542828 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Lack of investment opportunities would keep rates fairly low anyway, since the world is awash with dollars. If Bernanke goes QE trillions, it will slaughter the dollar and cause massive inflation--and probably an attempt to buy large chunks of US farmland with otherwise useless dollars.  As usual, politicians are likely to destroy the real economy for very short term political gain.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:23 | 1542628 centerline
centerline's picture

Debt saturation.  Game over.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 10:55 | 1542479 digitlman
digitlman's picture

If they do QE3, I'm going to drive to the fed in DC and harass Bernanke with a bullhorn.

What's the definition of insanity again?   Something about doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different..something...


Tue, 08/09/2011 - 10:59 | 1542481 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

 a dose of money printing over 600 billion dollars would collapse the Chinese economy.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:11 | 1542559 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

something they would not be happy about at all, and who knows what we would get in return...after all, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:27 | 1542644 centerline
centerline's picture

Not immediately.  What will happen is that currency wars will escalate from bitch slapping to full fist.  Then the brass knuckles and broken beer bottles come in (trade restrictions per se).

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 10:55 | 1542488 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Like I thought qe3 trillion or more. But you need a big bust for that sell. So crash the markets by not giving it today.

Theyll scramble to do something.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 13:33 | 1543091 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

S&P at 1150 from the recent peak of 1350, a decline of about 15% vs. TD's call for a 20% drop, but the huge spike in volatility might make up the difference. Bernanke will point at H1 GDP and hint at more QE, maybe even announce that it is coming, but he will leave the questions of how big and exactly when unanswered for now.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 10:55 | 1542490 Jason T
Jason T's picture

The only one with the right plan is Lyndon LaRouche!!

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:01 | 1542516 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Comedy Au!

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 10:55 | 1542491 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Why doesn't the Fed just say they will do QE continuously, non-stop as long as the commodities traders keep inflation under a certain level.  If inflation goes above a predetermined level, Fed just cuts off QE.  Problem solved.  

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:09 | 1542544 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Brilliant. Just tell the traders to behave and if they don't we'll take our ball and go home. Yeah, that'll work.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 10:55 | 1542494 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Tyler, regarding the risk spread, it seems to be quite wide at this point.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 10:57 | 1542499 juwes
juwes's picture



Not a shot fired by foreign terrorists!  Not a thing done by the evil alliances in the world.  religions and secularists, all races and genders, organize against your oppressors, the wage slave masters and their attack dog lawyers who oppress us in the people's courts.


We need more coverage of London and we need to change the conversation away from "they took some stuff and broke things" to


The people who do ALL THE WORK are not slaves to be ignored and suppressed, but to be respected and even feared by those who would suppress their liberty.


Organize now!  And prepare for those who may riot in your area out of frustration rather than enlightenment values. 

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 10:59 | 1542507 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Nato should bomb the place.... let's ask the Germans to do it :)


Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:02 | 1542520 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Nah, they already had a turn...let the Italians...that should be funny to watch.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:19 | 1542605 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

This is the second time today that I read the Luftwaffe should bomb London. A commentator even said 'all is forgiven'. Crazy folks.

My father was a child when they launched the V2 attacks on London. Was an inspiring view. I am more a tank guy. But I will need my Panther tank to conquer the ECB building in Frankfurt and to destroy some bankster limousines. :)


Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:23 | 1542625 snowball777
Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:39 | 1542700 fishface
fishface's picture

just burn the place and let Berlusconi perform live the Iliupersis at Buckingham palace

What a show... the TV rights alone would be worth squillions


Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:09 | 1542543 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Or otherwise provide humanitarian aid to those oppressed rebels.  I think freezing the UK's accounts and arming the freedom fighters might help greatly.  After all Col. Gaddafi has been in power for decades, but not nearly so long as the Queen and her family.  Wait...does the North Sea still have oil? :)

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:22 | 1542618 OliverTwist
OliverTwist's picture

Thank you that you made me laugh on a hard day where the silver price is keep falling further.


Tue, 08/09/2011 - 12:14 | 1542837 eureka
eureka's picture

Fricking Funny - let all shame fall - thanks, Shameful, I can't stop laughing - I think your wit will have me laughing for days - bravo!

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 10:58 | 1542504 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

London Update

3.41pm: Computer hackers have defaced the official website of BlackBerry owner Research In Motion, in a retaliatory attack over the company's pledge to assist the police investigation into the London riots.

Inside BlackBerry blog was hacked into on Tuesday afternoon by a group calling themselves TeamPoison. In a statement posted on the BlackBerry website, the hackers said:

Dear RIM;

You Will _NOT_ assist the UK Police because if u do innocent members of the public who were at the wrong place at the wrong time and owned a blackberry will get charged for no reason at all, the Police are looking to arrest as many people as possible to save themselves from embarrassment ... if you do assist the police by giving them chat logs, gps locations, customer information & access to peoples BlackBerryMessengers you will regret it, we have access to your database which includes your employees information; e.g – Addresses, Names, Phone Numbers etc. – now if u assist the police, we _WILL_ make this information public and pass it onto rioters…. do you really want a bunch of angry youths on your employees doorsteps? Think about it…. and don't think that the police will protect your employees, the police can't protect themselves let alone protect others….. if you make the wrong choice your database will be made public, save yourself the embarrassment and make the right choice. don't be a puppet..

p.s – we do not condone in innocent people being attacked in these riots nor do we condone in small businesses being looted, but we are all for the rioters that are engaging in attacks on the police and government…. and before anyone says "the blackberry employees are innocent" no they are not! They are the ones that would be assisting the police.

The hackers said they defaced the website "in response" to this statement made by RIM on Monday: "We feel for those impacted by the riots in London. We have engaged with the authorities to assist in any way we can."

A spokesman for RIM said the firm was looking into the apparent website hack.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 12:55 | 1542939 eureka
eureka's picture

Any chance "rioters" will set TBTF banks on fire?

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 10:59 | 1542506 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

This seems so obvious to us, yet history will show our governments were either too stupid or too captured to do anything about it, or both.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 10:59 | 1542509 Irish66
Irish66's picture

GS looks like it will go negative

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:00 | 1542510 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture


You want to be on the sidelines today. If the Bernank does nothing but language change the market implodes. But I agree with Tyler on this one, The Fed is not about to admit defeat. If the Fed is going to announce something it has got to be huge! I mean two Trillion in Govt bond buying and MBS.

The Market would probably rise 600 points but it would signal the endgame as the US would be downgraded futher, The dollar would truly tank and by late fall the crash would really take hold as the re-resession/Depression asserts itself and oil hits $130 a barrel.

Or the market could panic and sell off anyway. I really don't know and niether does anybody else. So it is best to sit today out. I definitely have my popcorn ready!

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:16 | 1542588 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Excellent advice Arc...

Here is a comment from a blogger in Mexico that I will share. He is an ex marine, ex reporter and is retired, living in Mexico... 'Fred on Everything'...

"God it's wonderful—really diverting in a macabre sort of way, at least if you have a diseased sense of humor and enough Padre Kino red. Which I do. As I write the world's only delusional superflower, perennially in love with itself, navel-gazing as narcissistically as ever, ignorant, self-indulgent, gurbling like an insane relative in the attic and fondling electro-trinkets from Japan, is broke. Yes, we see a beautiful dive from the high board, two somersaults and a half-twist, into the Third World. And so richly deserved.

Congress, a collection of whores, con-men, and penny-ante sharpers from East Jesus, Nebraska, ponders the Great Question: Default now, and admit manfully to being the economic lepers everyone else already knows we are? Or raise the debt ceiling, keep spending like a spoiled Swarthmore sophomore with daddy's credit card, and collapse a bit later?

It's just lovely. The World’s Greatest Economy holding out the begging bowl to China. “Alms? Alms for the poor?” Maybe I don't have enough Padre Kino after all. Maybe there isn't enough."

...remainder at site... no, I am not Fred... or related to Fred... or pimping for Fred...

TDs site is tops, followed by the scriblings of Bill Bonner...imo.

"Fred On EverythingScurrilous Commentary by Fred Reed"


Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:00 | 1542513 Doyle Hargraves
Doyle Hargraves's picture

Alll this is solved by a BAC or Citi collapse. Provides cover to do 'what is necessary' to TPTB. Look for that to justify the actions of the fed to print as much as they want.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:02 | 1542517 Cdad
Cdad's picture

all roads lead to the TBTF banks


Until such time as these hideously corrupt institutions are broken up, we shall continue to flounder within the Greater American Depression.  Their soul function is that of front running and skimming any glimmer of economic hope in this country.  As such, they will continue to thwart what we really need now...true capital formation.

Capital will not form in banks as corrupt as ours.  Pink slips, please.  100,000 terminated criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers would be a good start.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:02 | 1542519 FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

So you guys want financial armageddon???? What makes you think you'd survive it, or the aftermath, without going to hell and back? Not even Gold and Silver would protect you from rampaging, hysterical masses and your guns and bullets would only bring a brief respite before you were overwhelmed. All out war might just see everyone nuked.

I really don't understand your Gung-Ho mentality at all.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:10 | 1542551 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

i am on record and i want it and NOW......it cant be any worse than the corrupt disease that is still currently going


Bring BOA down, 6 feet under, where it belongs and lets RESET (from whereever the start is)

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:12 | 1542566 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Is financial a-geddon worse than being bled dry by pompous thieves?


Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:15 | 1542583 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

because why struggle at a game that's rigged and you can't win?  Better to burn out, than fade away.  You should understand that, if your nom de blog is truly relevant.

Now go change your depends, you dumb ass old fucking hippy. 

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:58 | 1542777 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture


better to be free in hell, than a slave in heaven....an no, this definately ain't heaven

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:24 | 1542629 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

Teapartyitis... they say it's a wild one, with liitle hope (there's that word again) of a cure... if only it was terminal!

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 12:03 | 1542782 KowPie
KowPie's picture

Only a brief respite? I call bullshit. Maybe if you are a shoot once a year "gun owner" or a fucking pacifist hippy that has a pussy for a personality. There are a lot more capable persons out there than you think or care to acknowledge. Good luck with spreading your ass cheeks for the government.


EDIT: As to self nuking? Great mind control for the masses, right up there with "Hope & Change"

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:09 | 1542548 DavidDavid
DavidDavid's picture

The Fed WILL NOT try QE3.  You "gold bugs" are about to get slaughtered.  Gold will drop $200 at 1:15 PM CST.  Watch & learn!

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:11 | 1542555 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Silver price is sure looking like you are correct

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:16 | 1542581 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture


You two should move out of Physical..

Wait! you two are paper traders.. never mind carry on!

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:23 | 1542626 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Interesting... trolls used to wait till something happened to cause PMs to trend lower... Now they are so desperate that they are 'speculating on a hypothesis'... lol

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:19 | 1542604 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Is that supposed to mean something to bears that are short and bought theirs sub-$1k?

StupidStupid! Watch & don't learn!

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:43 | 1542714 theopco
theopco's picture

lol, go Bears...

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:26 | 1542638 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

David, David, David... ?

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 12:08 | 1542812 KowPie
KowPie's picture

" Gold will drop $200 at 1:15 PM CST."


This could only happen in my wildest dreams. I have credit cards that I alway pay off at months end so as not to be in debt. I would IMMEDIATELY SMOKE THEM ALL for as much as I could get at $200 and reverse a lifelong position of pay as you go. Unfortunately that has as much chance of happening as me discovering a 24k vein running 6" below ground level in my back yard.

Tue, 08/09/2011 - 11:17 | 1542556 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Here comes the FED!


No Worries! The Hole is Safe!!


The FED will keep the Hole going!

Gold.. Down from $1,700!

Silver Down from $40!

Stock Market (Free FED Money Market Hole) UP!!!

The Money Fires are the BEST!!

Besides.. they only needed the Market to drop 25% so they could implement Quantitative Easing Part 3 which is really like Part 9.. but we are not counting anything under the $100 Billion Dollar Safe Mark. If the amount is under 100 Billion Dollars “We the Sheepish Consumers” don’t notice it or pay attention is what has been multi market tested to success.

So, lets get those printing presses Fired Up and Running so the “Free Market” can pumped by the FED to make the Wall Street AAA Rated Corps (OOPS! AAA is NO! Longer a Pre-Requisite for 0.25% Loans) can get richer off of the Back Stop that is “We the Sheepeople”.

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