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Manic Depressive Markets Are Back
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
Manic Depressive Markets Are Back
What a difference 24 hours makes, or 48 for that matter. After an almost 2% decline on Tuesday on virtually no news, the market looks set to get all that back and more - all since about 10:30 yesterday - also on no real news.
PSI results continue to come in. It looks like it will beat 75%. It seems that all banks and most regulated entities are voting in favor of PSI - as expected. It looks like Greece and the EU will discuss the results tomorrow. I expect CAC's to get done on Monday. It would be surprising, and controversial, if the don't use the CAC's and pay some holdouts at par.
So after the Greek default the market will move on to Portugal, Ireland, and Spain. Portugal seems the closest to needing a PSI of its own, while Spain continues to defy gravity with a large deficit, missing goals, an unpopped real estate bubble (it has popped, just no one has taken losses), combined with an almost unbelievable unemployment rate.
After Greece walks away from over $140 billion of debt, it will be hard for other countries to resist that temptation. Now that politicians realize they can make the banks do whatever they want, they will be tested to use that power.
So far the market is happy, has shrugged off the jitters, and can't wait for the Greek default and a big NFP. Credit in Europe is as strong as equities today, with Main 3.5 bps tighter so the rally is broad based and reminiscent of the risk on days from last year. No one complains about correlation of 1 on the up days.
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CAC = CDS. 3 days for the market to realize this so sell off again mid next week
Go Greece! 140 thousand million of someone else's money and they're ALREADY warming up for another. yeah...
What's the population of Greece again, surely, they should all be at least millionaires by now.
If they aren't, they soon will be...
Fixed to infinity......and beyond.
Hmmm, there might be a slight flaw in that...
bankingnews.gr reporting 88.6% calculated acceptance
Well, they get 100% middle finger from me.
I thought the politicians were the banks. I'm so confused.
The politicians are THE bank.
THE bank does gods work.
The rest of the banks can go screw
The Banks do Gods work..
Cant get any more Orwellian than that. It will be a phrase to define a lost generation.
Why don't we just put the crooks in charge......oh wait......nevermind.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYdq0ABH3so
Do you hear Jimi?
If CAC trigger, CDS trigger, gives Greece an incentive to default on London law bondholders..... the issue is relegated to the courts
You say some payouts at par - if they force 86% of all greek bondholders via CAC to "volunteer" then 14% london bonds left - payout out at par on all is not an option since they need 95% to get the bailout funds.
So they have to default on up to 9%, the game is now how much of these 14% signed on voluntarily, and how much holding out to get the CDS full payout
ISDA prepping for CDS trigger check out their latest release
I bought CDS on my gold, just in case but guess what? I didn't need it...
Still finding it difficult to give a toss about this one...
Why does this Bloomberg piece say that the determination committee is anonymous?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-08/banks-shouldn-t-be-both-judge-a...
IF ANYONE IS WONDERING, RISK PUSHED HIGHER TODAY ON GREEKS ANNOUNCMENT OF PARTICIPATION RATE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED EARLIER (PROBABLY GOT THE NEEDED %) . LOOKS LIKE STOPS GOT HIT IN EUROPE TOO.
SURPRISE!!!
Watching the "show", totally relaxed, knowing I am OUT for quite some time now, enjoying myself, contemplating how much more PHYZZZ I can get after the "reset" occurs :)))))))))!
Am not surprised to see that CDSs still get a bid, bonds too, despite the fact that after giving $1 you "only" get back .25c, some people are very sick, obviously, and they deserve IT TOO, what's yet to come!
It also seems to be the "POP", that usually is used to short the shit out of everything, why shoud it be "different" this time, eh?!
im seeing a lot of butterfly spreads around... not sure waht to make of that.
like you im out too.
overall im bearish on this game
Since i'm out I do paper trading for fun and guess what? I got creamed everytime I was "right", and why, because the game is rigged and thus no strategy is usefull anymore, too much corruption and gov "intervention", this why I decided to retreat and do more useful things with my money and time! Let them kill each other, soon it will happen, then I might get back in, maybe!
so everything is "fixed" now...right? /sarc
Sugar Daddy Dating bitchez!
Beats Michelle Obama
Dow 13,000 here we come again.
Why not invade Greece? In May they are susposed to piss everyone off again by threatening to return to democracy.
WMD's - Weapons of Monetary Destruction.
Looks like the sky is clear and calm for a day of giddy rocket ride in the markets. Not sure what the analogy can be if the 8:30 unemployment report shows a massive reduction in the unemployed numbers. A super melt-up?
bullish !
WTI 107.05 Brent 125.50 Lulz!
Doesn't matter what the participation rate is. If CAC's trigger, so does CDS which would be the same as a hard default. Lest we forget the Greek bailout is not sufficient enough. Next the rest of the PIIGS will be clamoring for a debt swap of their own. None of this stuff equals growth just kicks the can further down the road in hopes that growth will return.
Seems like all we are now is a central bank economy
CDS trigger but wont get apid out on all defaulters, the "voluntary"/CAC suckers will have signed away their rights to collect
not selective default not hard default, just "targeted" anti-hedge fund default.
Yes it puts a big incentive for others to go down the road but its also a big stick over the banks...... behave or else.
so im not sure PIIGS sov risks rise post targeted default
"no news." hm. figures. "there's a ton of news everyday." it's trying to sort out the salient fragments from the noise--and that's just for starters. Romney is in...that's number one. Syria is as well--causing the Democratic Party to be split in two i might add. We all know now "fiat interest rates" can be created...but i'm not sure the price is worth it. That 1000% market rate for Greek debt is a market rate. "That's a record" as they say. I would agree "we have currency wars." Eh, so what. RESOURCE WARS have been underway for a decade now. The other news of course is that gold and equities are now moving in lock step. So is oil. So is the euro. The theory of course I'm stick with Karl Marx: "he who controls the means of production and the motive power to move it wins."
That German (Industrial Production number) looks fishey to me. A 1.6 over the Feb. revised up-2.6. The scum bag banksters wonder why the trading is thin. This short squeeze bullshit on a lot about nothing is a classic example! Shit the sar lines on the crosses are parabolic up on the 30min charts for almost 48 hours. F..king unreal!
Tuesday is looking more like a bear trap. It's going to be a short covering rally at the vert least. Possibly more if the 8:30 numbers are more bullish than expected.
there are 3-4 news/year... really, what do you expect?