Manufacturing Decoupling Comes To America As Chicago Breaks Away From Rest Of Country

Tyler Durden's picture

Economic activity decoupling is no longer a phenomenon between the developed and developing world. It is between the Chicago region and everywhere else. And because the Chicago PMI is supposed to be representative of the Manufacturing ISM, the market just loves (or rather loved, considering the 10 minute leak of the data) that the PMI soared from 56.5 to 60.4 on expectations of a decline to 55.0. The internals were all hot, hot, hot as follows: "Business Activity: "EMPLOYMENT expanded to highest level in 4 months; NEW ORDERS erased net declines accumulated since April; ORDER BACKLOGS remained in contraction at a 23-month low; SUPPLIER DELIVERIES approached neutral; while the buying policy was as follows: PRODUCTION MATERIEL moved to an 10-month high; CAPITAL EQUIPMENT lead times ended a 4-month uptrend." Yet as usual the amusing part, which is straight from the respondents was the following: "We are seeing unannounced and incredible inflation on one product, multiple parts, that we are purchasing out of Europe. At 400% increase we thought surely must have been a mistake. This is not related to $ exchange since we pay in Euros already. Supplier says they cannot absorb costs anymore." And that's why Houston, we have a problem.

Compare Chicago PMI and Philly Fed:

Full survey panel response:

1.    "We are seeing unannounced and incredible inflation on one product, multiple parts, that we are purchasing out of Europe. At 400% increase we thought surely must have been a mistake. This is not related to $ exchange since we pay in Euros already. Supplier says they cannot absorb costs anymore."

2.    "Continued export of manufacturing with simultaneous mandates to reduce global raw material inventories while maintaining high customer service levels globally is the greatest challenge. Locating new localized sources for raw goods in new manufacturing locations also lenghty and expensive. Quality consistency seems to be the biggest headache for new factories attempting to qualify local suppliers. US based goods often continue to be used at a higher cost thus impacting the bottom line but keeping customers coming back."

3.    "Talk of tax increases has many of my suppliers nervous and they now are reluctant to expand their business with either labor or capital investments."

4.    "Business continues strong & the backlog remains good."

5.    "We are finally adding personnel on a regular basis to help meet the increasing demand we are
facing. Our standards are lower in terms of experience but not quality of the employee."

6.    "We buy gold for our manufacturing process. Pricing is Ugly!!!!"

7.    "Concerns with double dip recession due to short term strategies for raw material and energy pricing (example: oil pricing has dropped significantly; however, prices at the pump remain elevated). This approach to pricing appears to be systemic resulting in eroding margins and lack of capital to fund growth for manufacturers in USA."

8.    "Our production is slammed right now, but our backlog is still low, basically everything we are getting in we are pushing out the door as fast as we can complete them."

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flyr1710's picture

i live 35 miles outside Philly...guess I live in the wrong country then; time for chicagoland to secede and start its own country where hope is abound

moldygoat's picture

I have this vision of the Manufacturing Manager for company X on the phone, his thumb in a vise, Rahm turning the screw, "things are hot, hot, hot, no recession here"

 

narapoiddyslexia's picture

Signs of a Crash Ahead, Not a Recession - See the link.

Here is a rational argument that the Dow can head down to 3,600.

Look out below!

The only fault in the reasoning is the assertion that interest rates have to go up and when they do, the wheels come off.

But Uncle Ben can keep rates down for a long time. He knows that if rates go up, the government debt goes to hell, AND the market goes to 3,600.

What fun!

 

LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly. either way, the market is doomed.

FlyPaper's picture

Well, no.  In this world, deflation will heat up and Fed will turn on the press; and the Markets will inflate away, gold will go up; and they will then back off; deflationary forces will hit - and this will go on until it can't.  Then they'll really print - and that's when money moves into hard assets.  

So in one sense if they don't intervene - then yes; the market is doomed.  If they do, my guess is up and down on a downward path.

Don Birnam's picture

Chicago PMI notwithstanding, Dr. Copper remains unconvinced.

Down >3% as of this writing, to 3.13...

max2205's picture

All signed David Axelrod @)

SGS's picture

Que Blythe, time to smash the metals before the goyim buy them.

tmosley's picture

Blythe, like most bankers, is not jewish.  This meme is tiresome.  Yes, Jews are overrepresented in finance, but they are over represented in the medical and legal professions as well.  This overrepresentation is 100% attributable to the value their culture places on education, even so far as to make it a prerequisite at a young age for becoming a man.

gmrpeabody's picture

Well said, tmosely. If only other cultures in America set high standards for their kids, this "gimme something" mentality might finally go away. Until "bagging bithez" is no longer THE prerequisite for manhood, don't hold your breath.

trav7777's picture

Stupid is as stupid __________________________

Even a moron like Forrest Gump got this one...

gmrpeabody's picture

trav.... you're as pleasant as ever.

Are you kidding's picture

So why don't thet USE that education and drop the religious bullshit?

JimBowie1958's picture

Also, historically, European nations would restrict Jews to urban ghetos and forbid them from owning any land. So they learned how to do these urban professions quite well. Why not go with your strengths?

Jews are the bird in the mine' as far as civil liberties go. When a state initially becomes tyranical, the Jews are the easiest target to go after, and everyone should take this kind of thing as a bellweather for further diminishment in every respect of wealthy professionals of any ethnicity.

Besides, it's those goshdarned Episcopalians that run everything, not Jews! lol

It just seems to be such a knee jerk to blame the Jews.

Diogenes's picture

In Canada it's the Scotch Presbyterians who end up with all the money.

trav7777's picture

you're an idiot in the mine...do you know WHY it was that jews were faced with restrictions such as these?

Oh, right...RAYCISM.  That's what the media and all the books by Simon & Schuster told you right?  And you figured it all out based on all of one data point, right?

No...it was because those societies ended up like THIS ONE.  A group of jews ran their fucking usury ponzis and the entire place went to SHIT with them owning everything.  It was the same during Weimar.  Hell, a couple of jewish brothers were on opposite sides of the table to negotiate Versailles.  Who do you suppose that benefitted?  Look at the Fed board...do you see diversity there?  How about in media?  Oh, but no, we have bagholders to sit around and sing the praises of a group that is notoriously xenophobic and proclaim that they acquired a stranglehold on the two industries you morons sit around and HATE MOST (finance and MSM) and you cannot seem to connect any dots?  It was all just merit, right?

The way you goyim bootlickers will carry water for a group that sees you as cattle just boggles my mind.  Well, maybe it shouldn't...you ARE cattle.

g's picture

Well said tmosley, I grow weary and disgusted with the Jew bashing. As enlightened as most ZH posters are, there is this pervasive anti-semite attitude. Personally if parents took responsibility for their kids, by teaching them respect, hardwork ethic, and the importance of education, then perhaps more groups would be represented in the same professions as Jews. What happend to living in a world where merit and hardwork was rewarded. If you have a problem with who the doctors, bankers, lawyers are, go out and become one your self and stop whining like a little bitch. We live in a lame, '...i want, give it to me culture..." work hard, save the money, and then buy what you want.

 

There is going to be nashing of teeth the day the young in the world have to actually work for something.

 

Full disclosure: I am not Jewish, I am young, I owe no debt, I am not wealthy, I am an American, I work hard, and I instill good values in my kids, including not hating Jews or any other group of peple, the importance of hardwork, they do NOT get what they ask for, they get what they need, and if they work hard then maybe they get what they want, and the importance of education, etc.....

trav7777's picture

you don't have ANY FUCKING CLUE what jewish kids are taught.  You know only what they TELL YOU on their wholly-owned media channels and wholly-owned publishing houses and with their wholly-owned propaganda arms like the NAACP, ADL, and so forth.

You really have no motherfucking clue.

Merit and hard work?  WTF?  There is MERIT on a nearly 100% jew Fed Board that is A FUCKING SCAM?  How many times do you idiots have to call the Fed an act of PURE EVIL but you cannot seem to identify HOW the Board running it has always been MONOETHNIC?

Can you dumbshits not spell nepotism?  Jews unapolagetically practice PURE RACISM, the distilled, unalloyed version of it and they do it right under your fucking noses and you step back and proclaim it MERIT.

If you were smart you would teach your kids what other kids are taught- look out ONLY for their own, practice ruthless racism, never hire a jew, never hire a black, unless they can serve your interests...IOW, be exactly what everyone ELSE is.  Instead, you bought into this fairy tale that racism was a purely white condition (+1 to whoever identifies the ethnicity of the homo marxist who came up with that meme).

Hard work and all of that means shit.  What matters is who you are and who you know and if you're a jew, your resume goes to the top of a jew hiring manager's pile.  The stories people can tell who've intersected this clan are legion.

g's picture

I never resort to this, but you do not even deserve a well reasoned rebuttal.

 

FUCK YOU.

 

Dude everyone deserves respect. Including you. Racism is alive and well I see with you. The focus should be on individual rights not group rights, wait I am catching myself in a well reasoned thought here, which you do not deserve.

 

Did I say FUCK YOU.

 

What is your solution douche bag? Another mass genocide? Did you learn anything from history? Where is your logical argument, you always seem to rant, your claims are unsubstaniated. Prove to me they are all Jews on the FED board, and then convince me as to why that is a problem. I want to FED abolished, but as long as the FED is there I do not care what the ethnicity of the members is. I do not care who does what as long as its based on individual merits. Damn it, thinking again. I am ranting here, because I want to, but that is the purpose of this post. I post well thought out points of view consistently here on ZH, same as almost everyone else. Man it feels good to unleash on someone, I should do it more often.

tamboo's picture

sorry but adolf was a jew (nee scheckelgruber) funded by joo bankers to stampede jews to israel.

the holohoax numbers dont add up and why do they go apeshit when congress brings up armenian holocaust memorial?

young turks=jews.

Dissecting the Holocaust

The Jewish Genocide of Armenian Christians

ADOLF HITLER - FOUNDER OF ISRAEL

tens of millions of christians slaughtered in post revolutionary russia:

The Secret Holocaust - Rense.com

nodhannum's picture

Right on tmosley!  This type of bigotry is not just reserved for jews but for other cultures that put a high value on education.  Take the Hakas in asia (also referred to as "the jews of asia).  It's education, education, education.  My father in-law has seven brothers in the US and Taiwan...all are MDs.  My father in-law went crazy because his daughter (my wife) only has a master degree from UNC Chapel Hill.  My brother in-law has a masters in Electrical Engineering (Georgia Tech) and was roundly critisized for not pursueing a Ph.D.  The same goes for a certain african MD, Ph.D. (from Oxford no less) from west africa that did a post doc in my lab here in the RTP. He came from a tribe where it was the same learn, learn, learn.  All these groups are periodically slaughtered because they are too successful.  Remember the periodic slaughter of Hakas in Indonesia since Sukarno?  Go get em tmosley!

trav7777's picture

and the pinnacle of their success is the FRBNY, the entire banking industry, and the MSM.  Global usury and central banking are their highest achievements from all this merit.  You want to hang the entire FOMC...dumbass, they were just being "successful."  Who cares if their success impoverished millions or billions?  It's just whitey hate that rounded them up into ghettos for past implementations of this same clan industry.

Do you idiots even THINK before you speak?  It utterly baffles me that you can lionize their success when their most notable successes are outright scams that you hate.

trav7777's picture

but white overrepresentation is a result of....that's right, RAYCISM

black overrepresentation in jail or poverty or low IQ or lousy SATs or anything else is...RAYCISM

but, JEW overrepresentation is based on...got it...MERIT.  OF COURSE.  Couldn't be anything like nepotism or shit like that.

Only whitey is ever overrepresented as a result of something OTHER than merit.  You are the definition of a useful idiot goy

TK7936's picture

Im sure Harvard is completly unbias when it comes to non jews.

bonddude's picture

Chicago and Ill. are the eurobanks of the US. What about The PMI upside surprises? Chi & Mich.

Oh regional Indian's picture

The WORLD IS FLAT amigos. Or so they insist. Monocultured, diversity free FLAT EARTH, Bees!

ORI

Axis of Evil

lapedochild's picture

Sorry to be OT but can someone see if you can login to BAC online banking? I haven't gotten my daily balance update email either

sabra1's picture

they charge $5.00 to log in!

Byte Me's picture

they charge $5.00 to log in!

per millisecond!

long-shorty's picture

Chicago ISM is released to subscribers 3 minutes early, which is when the futures ramped. Not 10 min early.

long-shorty's picture

Just upped our net equity exposure to 40%, while transitioning more of our hedge from short small cap to long volatility in case I am wrong.

Equity risk premium is the highest it has been in the last 55 years+. L/S equity as a class is already nearly market neutral, and global macro is net slightly short. All of the smart money has already pulled back here, as has the retail investor (massive mutual fund outflows for weeks). The only thing to fear at this point is counterpary failures and forced selling if prices fall further (admittedly, quite possible given low mutual find cash levels). Cramer is bearish as hell. Time to make a little bit of a stand in the most attractive equity names.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Manufacturing is sooo 1950s.

DaveyJones's picture

like our electrical grid, energy policy, and 100 other things.

Tsar Pointless's picture

Not credible. Simply not believable.

That and the "Consumer Confidence" report released by U of Michigan.

As fabricated as the story of the sinking of the USS Maine by the Spanish.

pupton's picture

Don't despair, soon we'll all have "green jobs" building solar panels for King Barack.

Archimedes's picture

Right! The Dept. of Energy just gave 1 Billion to Solar Reserve a company run by none other than the brother-in-law of ....wait for it.......Nancy Pelosi! Americans are so stupid.

pupton's picture

Well...some Americans are stupid.  But we're not blind to what has been going on.  I'll give them (such as my wife's family) a chance to redeem themselves and vote Barack Usurpa out of office in 2012.  After that, yes, any white person who votes for him is stupid in my book. 

I guess I give the brown people a pass, because either I expect less from them (stupid) or I understand the pressure and groupthink they face, I'm not sure which it is...maybe both.  Call me racist if you that's how you define it.  I don't care, maybe I am racist.  The word has lost most of it's meaning these days.

donsluck's picture

By definition, assuming someone is stupid because of the color of their skin is racism. Racism is a form of blindness. Where do you stand on the brown scale? In the winter? In the summer?

pupton's picture

I am white Sherlock.  

But while we are trying to define the word "racist", (which by many people's definitions I admit I may well be) no, it is not "blindness" to recognize that 95% or more of the negros in this country voted for Obama in 2008.  Blindness, no.  Observant, yes. 

Again, I am not sure if 95% of one race voting for someone who happens to be of their race makes them a) stupid, b) racist c) subject to/victims of massive groupthink.  It could be any or all of those three, but I KNOW "C)" is one factor.  My MD and my chiropractor are both black, and they had a problem with Obama medling with health care, but they were unable to talk about it with their black friends and family because they would be slapped with the "Uncle Tom" label. 

So, I don't fault brown/black/negro/colored people for ending up voting the way they do, but I don't get the appeal for white people in 2012.  Fine, 2008, you exercised your white guilt and felt good about yourself and your country for a few weeks.  But let's grow up and make responsible choices people.

Oh, and if I'm racist I should probably get a white doctor, huh?

DaveyJones's picture

would wager that most whites who voted for Obama did not vote out of "white guilt" they were simply conned. Would also wager that many votes were more anti prior admin votes than pro democrat / pro obama votes. Do you honestly think this place is going to get any better with either party in power? McCain was intimately involved with the Savings and Loan debacle and would have also kept the wars going full steam. The parties are simply global oligarch puppets and this place along with capitalism and the constitution have no chance until both are destroyed and the law is enforced.    

pupton's picture

I can't follow all the way down that rabbit hole, but I will agree that McCain was a shitty candidate. 

I was turned away from the GOP during the Bush administration, but haven't found any other viable option to vote for in most elections.  I voted for the Constitution Party guy when possible, but let's be frank, yes the two parties own the game.  If you want real change you have to take the game board and flip it over and rip it up.  The two party system isn't required by the Constitution, fuck it.  We should have at least three or four parties with a runoff election so that people can vote their conscience in the first round and then if there is no candidate with greater than 50% you have a second round of voting with just the top two candidates.  That would make for much more interesting elections results. 

What we have now is Libertarian candidates having to run as Reps because they know they have no chance as Independents.  But the GOP machinery rejects them, even if they have popular ideas.  (Yes, I'm talking about Ron Paul).

I guess I agree with you about 85% of the way...

earnulf's picture

I admit that I voted for Obama in 08.   McCain was a continuation of the Bush Administration and would have put a woman who quits on everything a heartbeat (literally) away from being the President.    After Bush Sr. and Bush Jr, and the destruction to the economy through takeovers and buyouts, I was hoping that Obama would be good to his word.    I have since been seriously abused of that notion.    Neither party will change the general direction that we are headed, but they will sure jump overboard when the ship goes down. (after locking the rest of us in the steerage).

Ron Paul is worthy of my next vote, but doesn't stand a chance of being the Republican nominee.   The rest of the political field is worthless, kinda like my dollar bill.

We need to begin working at the local level for sustainability.    Accountability will not come before the crash and there will be all kinds of finger pointing after the fact.    We have to prepare for ourselves and not expect anyone else to help (they will be trying to keep thier own heads above water).     If we don't take care of ourselves, no one will.    Prepare yourself for the worst, hope for the best.

AnAnonymous's picture

Oh, and if I'm racist I should probably get a white doctor, huh?
///////////////////////////////////////////////////

Why so?

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
My MD and my chiropractor are both black, and they had a problem with Obama medling with health care, but they were unable to talk about it with their black friends and family because they would be slapped with the "Uncle Tom" label.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

This part made laugh more than the others.

Again US citizens playing the card of ignorance.

Are they really ignorant they have established the commercial relationship as the standard relationship between subjects of the US world order?

Commercial relationship leads salers to sell what the buyers want to hear, in order to avoid alienating their customers.

In the same department, it reminds me of a US citizen who thought her vet loved animals. She really wanted that their vet loved animals.
So, one day, I exposed her vet as non being the pet loving vet, the character that the vet used to sale in order to keep that US citizen happy.

It is commercial relationship. These US citizens physicians have smelled the expectation and are answering to it in a way that does not hurt their customers.

So what? US citizens ignore the standard relationship they have forced on the subjects of the US world order? Of course not. But they want to depict it as having other value than a seller giving what a customer expects.

To the next customer, those two negroes would have served they supported Obama if they have felt the customer expected that answer.

Good piece of news though for this US citizen: his racism is so obvious, exhibited like a badge of honour, that other US citizens can see it in advance.

Isnt life wonderful in this US world order?

Diogenes's picture

After 8 years of Bush a stuffed dummy could have beat the Republicans in 08.

Nobody voted for Obama, they voted against Bush. Why is this so hard to remember.

trav7777's picture

listen, retard...you surely watched all those people crying and fainting and shit when the MESSIAH HISSELF was speaking and proclamating and all of that?

You REALLY believe that people STILL have their fuckin Obama stickers on their volvos bc it was about Busch?  Get your head out