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Manufacturing ISM Follows Chicago PMI With A Miss; Declines To 50.8 On Expectations Of Rise

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday, the Chicago PMI miss led us to suggest that the ISM is next. Sure enough, today this other metric that had consistently beaten the negative HF economic data in the late summer was the latest to hit an inflection point, and miss substantially, with expectations of an improvement in the September number of 51.6 to 52.0 trounced, following an index print of 50.8. And while there was no major moves in the bulk of the index components, the Prices subcomponent saw an epic collapse, tumbling from 56 to 41. What does this imply for the S&P? Nothing good. But remember: correlation is not causation, a fact the Fed loves to abuse without pause.

From the report:

Full breakdwon of components:

 

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
OCTOBER 2011

Index

Series
Index
Oct
Series
Index
Sep
Percentage
Point
Change

Direction

Rate
of
Change
Trend*
(Months)
PMI 50.8 51.6 -0.8 Growing Slower 27
New Orders 52.4 49.6 +2.8 Growing From Contacting 1
Production 50.1 51.2 -1.1 Growing Slower 2
Employment 53.5 53.8 -0.3 Growing Slower 25
Supplier Deliveries 51.3 51.4 -0.1 Slowing Slower 29
Inventories 46.7 52.0 -5.3 Contracting From Growing 1
Customers' Inventories 43.5 49.0 -5.5 Too Low Faster 31
Prices 41.0 56.0 -15.0 Decreasing From Increasing 1
Backlog of Orders 47.5 41.5 +6.0 Contracting Slower 5
Exports 50.0 53.5 -3.5 Unchanged From Growing 1
Imports 49.5 54.5 -5.0 Contracting From Growing 1
             
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 29
Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 27

*Number of months moving in current direction.

  • Commodities Up in Price
    • Aluminum Products* (3); Caustic Soda; Copper*; Steel* (14); and Titanium Dioxide (2).
  • Commodities Down in Price
    • Alloy Metals; Aluminum (2); Aluminum Products* (2); Copper* (3);
      Copper Based Products; Corn; Diesel Fuel; Natural Gas (3); Nickel;
      Plastic Resins (3); Steel* (6); and Steel Products.
  • Commodities in Short Supply
    • Castings (2) is the only commodity reported in short supply.

And as usual, the best grasp of what is going on comes from the survey respondents themselves who continue to be overly cautious 2 years into the post-recession economy.

  • "Starting to see some deflation on raw materials." (Chemical Products)
  • "Overall industry volumes remain flat vs. previous month.
    Uncertainty in supply chain is increasing due to lower volumes vs.
    historical." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • "International: contraction in demand for our products is driving
    mitigation of excess material on order. Contract manufacturers are
    adjusting their resources accordingly." (Machinery)
  • "Business is very strong, both domestically and internationally." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "With metal prices declining, we are seeing some short-term forecast
    strength. If metal pricing increases again, this strength is expected
    to disappear again." (Primary Metals)
  • "Auto industry still strong." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Business is slowing — not crashing — but uncertainty and caution is the order of the day." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Retail branded business is slower than expected due to consumers
    continuing to move to private label- and store-brand products for price
    advantage. Raw material supplies are in good shape, but prices are
    staying stubbornly higher than expected." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco
    Products)
 

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Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:16 | 1832050 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Who cares?  BTFD'ers out in full force this morning.  Doing as they have been trained.  Not even smart enough to wait for the bottom of the range.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:20 | 1832069 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Yay.  All it took was gov't subprime lending.  On a local radio station, a local GM dealer brags that they can get you into a new Camaro with a 450 FICO score.  The kicker - you don't have to make a payment for 6 months!  Bankruptcy?  No problem.  Not kidding.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:21 | 1832077 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

wow, 450? somebody stop me!

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:19 | 1832070 srsly-wtf
srsly-wtf's picture

It can't go straight down....there are always knife catchers and weak shorts.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:17 | 1832056 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Who cares? The bottom for the day is in.

After four whole minutes of selling at the open, it's been a relentless grind up in the US equity indices, thanks to our friendly HFT machines.

They're only looking out for our best interests. A rising stock market makes Mr. and Mrs. Serf happy!

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:18 | 1832063 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Bullish --- See the huge drop in prices?  Benny now clear to print.......  Benny needs double digit inflation......

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:20 | 1832075 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Who pulled the rug out from under everyone?  It really tied the room together, did it not?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:21 | 1832082 qussl3
qussl3's picture

DEFLATION!

The lights are green.

God help us all.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:47 | 1832231 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

I spoke to God he said " help yourself get some gold"

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:23 | 1832088 srsly-wtf
srsly-wtf's picture

The afterglow from the 'Best month for stocks in 30 years" fades.....

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:25 | 1832092 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I love how some of the respondents used terms like "deflation", and "contraction".  Guess they must be sending a signal to the Fed. Bank bonuses are in jepordy, must push out QE3.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:25 | 1832093 youngman
youngman's picture

Who cares about the USA today..its all Greece and a little MF .......

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:29 | 1832126 CreditcalMass
CreditcalMass's picture

Shouldn't inventories be growing in anticipation of the holiday season? Those thanksgiving sales are supposed to start in a few weeks....

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 11:21 | 1832413 CreditcalMass
CreditcalMass's picture

A. I don't buy his "leveling of the hump" explanation for a damn minute.

B. The Port of Oakland doesn't matter, let me know when the Port of Long Beach and Port of Los Angeles go on strike.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 11:32 | 1832470 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Seattle does to some extent, he is right about peak, don't know if it's gone forever. It's been a very weak ramp to the holiday season.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:29 | 1832128 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

With this bit of bad news, the market immediately rejected the selloff.   Watch out shorts.   Never underestimate the power of the gov't to manipulate markets when it serves their political agenda.   UP is still the agenda. 

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:39 | 1832184 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

yep, a lot of stuff trading above the open.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:30 | 1832134 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Bullish for equities apparently...

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:32 | 1832142 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

We opened up with a TRIN of 10.3 after closing yesterday with a 3.2

And we have had 43 consecutive trading days with -1000 TICK readings.

Any wonder why PNRA, CMG, LTD, etc. are pretty much unfazed today?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:46 | 1832222 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Light Dawns on MBS Investors – Streamlined Refis Will Be Lower Than Hoped – ISM Price Index Nosedives

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/

Look at the ISM price index. Deflation anyone?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:49 | 1832243 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Shit.  Someone's lying.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:52 | 1832257 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We're eating more than we're shopping. This has to stop. I call on the Fed to force Americans to do more shopping

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 11:03 | 1832306 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

Wondered why we're off the lows. Now I know. Good is good and bad is good. 

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 11:09 | 1832341 HedgeOn
HedgeOn's picture

the establishment will not let the wheels fall of this bus until it's advantageous - qe3 motors are revving

 

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 11:46 | 1832553 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

well, the inexpensive puts are coming in handy now, eh, sportz lovers?

and, it is not too early to start putting in a some real shitty bids for cheap calls, imo

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 18:12 | 1834583 IveBeenHad
IveBeenHad's picture

I recently read a pretty compelling report offering a bull case for falling producer prices.  As inflation pressures fall businesses can stop worrying about costs and focus on investing and growing... The report shows the strong inverse correlation between producer prices (6M forward leader) and PMI.  Prices declines lead increases in PMI by approximately 6-9 months. 

I am making this point b/c the poster said that falling prices is bad for stocks but this point is in direct contrast.  

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 00:30 | 2215930 Marta45
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