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Manufacturing ISM Misses Expectations, Rises From December, Prices Paid Surge
As we hinted earlier, and contrary to 100% wrong whisper numbers, the January ISM not only did not land in the 55+ ball park, but missed consensus estimates of 54.5, printing at 54.1, yet up from December's 53.1. However, just like in China, the goalseeked number was neither good nor bad, although leaning toward the weaker side to keep with the Chicago PM's miss. After all the Chairman needs an exit door for more QE.The internals were not very notable with the exception of Prices Paid, which came at 55.5 compared to expectations of 50.0 and up from 47.5 in December, the highest since September 2011. Oops margins and oops Inflation? And what is just as bad, the traditionally leading "New Orders less Inventories" index turned down once again, with Invs rising by +4.0, and New Orders up just 2.8%.
Breakdown:
And New Orders less Inventories courtesy of John Lohman:
What the respondents are saying:
- "Still seeing raw materials pricing moving down in general, but expect inflation later in the quarter." (Chemical Products)
- "Year starting a little slow, but customers are positive about increased business in 2012." (Machinery)
- "Once again, business continues to be strong." (Paper Products)
- "Pricing remains in check with the demand we are seeing. Supplier
deliveries are on time or early." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Products) - "The economy seems to be slowly improving." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "Business lost to offshore is coming back." (Computer & Electronic Products)
- "Business remains strong. Order intake is great — more than 20 percent above budget." (Primary Metals)
- "Indications are that 2012 business environment will improve over 2011." (Transportation Equipment)
- "Market conditions appear to be improving, with the outlook for 2012 better yet." (Wood Products)
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WMT closing in on 10-yr. highs
Where's the recession?
Where is Tim Wood's "You Have Been Warned" bear market?
Its a Crack Up Boom. The economy has really been in depression for over 10 years.
http://crackupboom.net/about/
Those "respondent comments" are pretty breathless for guys who just saw their input costs go up 8%.
The ISM surveyors wouldn't cherry-pick the comments, would they?
Roboy wants to know where the bear market is. It's right there, under the $3 trillion in stimulus spending and the $16 trillion in bank bailouts. Yeah--that huge bulge under the carpet. You got it.
Megabank traders have all taken a dose of FED Viagra and now have permanent erections causing them to hump their keyboards buy button repeatedly in an attempt to climax. The recession is in the pants of average middle class white guy who can't get it up anymore after losing his job, house, and big screen TV. He can't even look for work because he can't afford to put gas in his car thanks to all the dryhumping permanent boner shits like you.
I went there the other night. I had to get some car wax. The place was flucking packed. Im done here ( With this sentence, that is )
Agree, Robo. But is this the top?
You have a market that will rally on bad news, what do you think happens when they get good news?
Gold peaking at $1,754/oz and silver peaking at $34.13/oz with much, much, much more to come.
Wow look at the market crash with...oh, wait...Facebook! Facebook! Facebook!
Oooops !
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
What happened to the sub 50 ISM print?
all manipulated #'s....need an independent firm doing this stuff from now on
SPY pops 4 on ISM. The markets ability to digest bullshit without barfing all over the place is truly, truly amazing.
What part of the 54 ISM print do you not understand? The economy is growing enjoy it while it lasts
Today's 54 is revealed to be actually 52.7 (or so) one month from today. SOS every month. How much do you think SPY pops on 52.7 TODAY?
You know what i hate about this market: It turns morons into geniuses.
The long term destructive notion of free money and ZIRP to the whole of the US (see japan) is negated by the short term "easy monetary policy" is a good reason to buy some momo company trading at 100x sales.
One only needs to suspend their rational nature to believe that easy money is both the solution and the ultimate problem.
#btfd
I've been long WHR since 11/4/11 so I shouldn't bitch but they had a bad Q4 but hope '12 will be better so the stock is up 12%? WTF?!!!
+36 Lizzy, annoying innit?
"The news on the economy is better," David Sowerby, a Bloomfield Hills, Michigan-based portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., which oversees $150 billion, said in a telephone interview. "The uncertainty in Europe has diminished. While corporate profits have been less robust, they are still growing. That’s what’s moving stock prices higher."
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2012/02/wall_street_opens_higher_on_st.html
Subtract the government shadow corporation "products to nowhere" buying campaign and the ISM falls to 20. True business inventories are far higher than the ISM suggests. Take a look at the 2009 megaspike, do you really think all that product was sold? Or is it just like inflation calculations where they cherry pick the data they need to create the picture they want.
It should get worse in the months ahead, given the likelihood of a mild recession in Europe, Chinese soft-hard landing, and the US inventory cycle peaking in July '11.
Somebody forgot to tell Asia that they were supposed to rally on their manufacturing data:
Feb. 1, 2012, 10:28 a.m. EST
U.S. stocks rise on global manufacturing data
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday as economic reports from China and Europe topped expectations and Greece signaled progress on its debt-swap talks.
Hang Seng -0.28%
Shanghai -1.07%
S&P ASX -0.80%
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-higher-on-upbeat-overseas-data-2012-02-01
Stock Market up 150 points on this glorious Obama recovery news and we are to believe this is a free enterprise system. lol!
I talk to a lot of peole in business and their commentary is nothing like the respondents. Everybody I talk to always comment on the tough climate, thin margins, and more cut backs.
Dax is up 2.5%!!!! Did Greece dig up a 50 ton gold nugget on the Isle of Lesbos ?????????
GOSHORTANDFUCK'EM :)))
And the Bears ( all 3 of them) get slaughtered
Buy, buy, buy ! Isn't that what Helicopter Ben wants everybody to do?
Ben and his coterie of left wing facsists in Europe are turning the financial markets into a binary event. Either printing fiat works and they are saved, or it fails and the wrath of Job is upon Western civilization.
Bastids.
ISM misses, AMZN misses on low sales, American Airlines lays off 15k, in debt up to our eyeballs = More QE, new market highs!
Oops!