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Mapping America's Underfunded State Pension And Healthcare Liability Debacle
The map below, which shows the gravity of America's pervasive pension and healthcare liability underfunding problem, should certainly raise a few eyebrows. Sourced from the IMF's Article IV presentation which in turn sources the data from the Pew Center, the map shows that even despite the near doubling in the S&P since the March 2009 lows, there are still at least 9 states that have a minimum 35% underfunding in their pension and liability obligations. As a result, we expect that just like in the case of Illinois recently, many more states will be forced to issue debt to fund various entitlement plans on a "paycheck to paycheck basis." It also means that ever more states will begin scrambling after high beta, low quality, and very high risk stocks (in many cases selling CDS), in order to refill their coffers. We can only hope that the biggest dip buyer of NFLX stock today is not the Louisiana Retirement Fund system (for example), but we have a feeling we would be quite wrong.
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Poor pension funds. They're always the ones that get fucked.
Aaaah, I love the US retirement system: If NFLX goes to $600, then Lousianians will retire in comfort! The fate of millions of future geriatrics completely wagered on an existential lottery. And if NFLX goes bankrupt in the meantime?
Come on all you bagholders, STEP RIGHT UP!
Looks like Shitcago needs their chief village idiot Obongo back to work on their pension problems. We'll put a teleprompter in the Oval Office to take his place while he's away. The teleprompter can't do much worse.
if anyone f*cked the pensions, it was themselves. stop making promises (a la SS) of a certain rate of return. what fund/hf/investment out there does that nowadays?
those light blue and solid blue states need to learn how to steal from their pensions to fund all other short falls.
They learned how to cut education instead. We'll worry about a totally inept generation of workers when we get there.
How do you fill a hole in the Minnesota budget? Steal from next years school funding!
The government is the only place where failure means you get more money. The Washington DC school district spends the most money per student, has the highest paid teachers and administrators, yet they consistently rank in the bottom 5 of all school districts in the country. Who's doing the stealing?
I was only commenting that the re-opening of the Minnesota State Government was cemented by moving funds from one spend to another and calling it savings. I was not making a value judgement on the school system in general.
School funding is not the problem, there is limited correlation between funding levels and student performance. The US spends more than any country on K-12 education.
The problems are teacher unions, education bureaucracies and dysfunctional families, these are at the root of the education mess. The other problem is funding follows the school and not the student.
All this is unsurprising given that education is essentially a government monopoly.
sschu
Yes, if you want to really, truly fuck something up, you have to get the government involved. Our public education system is a sterling example of that unavoidable truth.
The problem with your education system is not lack of money, but rather poor curriculum. Governments can run education effectively and relatively efficiently. Teachers unions can exist and not destroy said system. With a solid curriculum that emphasizes critical thinking and independent inquiry will develop quality students.
U.S. curriculum is focused on rote learning and mindless testing, it is small wonder that the average American student knows little.
Look to Alberta for an effective education system, sure it has much room for improvement but it is certainly moving in the correct direction.
Governments can run education effectively and relatively efficiently. Teachers unions can exist and not destroy said system.
Sorry, in the US this has proven NOT to be the case in the US.
Curriculum changes are fine, but education is undergoing a fundamental shift and the changes will be dramatic and disruptive. The idea that we need these massive facilities and the enormous overhead of traditional K-12 education delivery system is absurd. The “education” of everyone can be administered much more efficiently and effectively using currently available technologies delivered via the Internet.
Just like post offices, this investment in education infrastructure is the classic Von Mises mal-investment and needs to be liquidated.
The money does not exist to pay $8,000 / year / student to get a HS diploma. The statists will fight to the end, but the economic and practical aspects will take the day. There is no other option.
sschu
Of course, because we all know that
money = education
How will the children learn if the school administrators aren't making $200K/yr and the teachers don't have their pensions and healthcare 100% funded by taxpayers? How will the children learn without Ipads and 50-inch LED televisions in each room?
There is no any useful public education in the USA. Instead, it is all indoctrination and propaganda.
Why should ruling oligarchs care about the public education in America? There is no reason for it. All jobs requiring any knowladge of science and engineering are now done outside of the USA. It is that simple.
The purpose of a system is what it does:
Check out: "Some Lessons from the Underground History of American Education"
by John Taylor Gatto, found in "Everything You Know is Wrong",
ISBN 978-1-56731-637-7, pgs 274-287
And this is AFTER the ridiculous Bernank-induced market surge - not good - about time these guys got realistic with themselves...If I had a pension managed by these guys I would be complaining like crazy
Nobody cares about that. Even those who are retired. As long as their cheques come in all is well.
What happens in 1 decade isn't their problem.
The government should confiscate all private retirement accounts such as 401(k) and IRA accounts and fold them into Social Security. America needs a single payer retirement system so the injustices of losing a pension because of poor investments are eliminated. This would also guarantee Social Security solvency forever. /sarc
Such a future is what concerns me about opening a roth IRA. I'll pay my taxes now, but fear I will have to pay them again later or maybe the gov will just take the whole thing.
On a related note, in my graduate accounting class last night our prof mentioned a proposed part of DoddFrank (which didn't get included) that would require people to max out their 401k if the employer matched, or something to that effect. I was the only one in the room, besides my prof, who thought it was an insane idea. Everyone else thought, oh saving for retirement is good, must be a good plan... and these are graduate students in business! ahhhh!
"The government should confiscate all private retirement accounts such as 401(k) and IRA accounts and fold them into Social Security."
What a great idea. I have another great one. Why not have all our pay checks sent directly to the IRS? They would deduct the proper amounts, send you the remainder, and keep track of it throughout the year, and then do your tax return when it's done. If you had anything coming back, they would send it to you. Just think of all the money we would save on accountants and tax preparers.
In the 70s we lived in southern CA, and the editorial cartoonist for the LA Slimes had the same cartoon every Apr 15th:
Line A: how much did You make___
Line B: How much did you spend: ____
Line C: difference
Line D: Send in Line A to the IRS.
When I was a young lad in 1999, I opened a Roth IRA. I remember telling my dad what a great deal it was, I could pay the taxes now while I was earning peanuts in a low tax bracket, and I could withdraw the principal and earnings later in life tax-free, presumably when I was rich and would be in a much higher tax bracket if I were pulling money from a traditional IRA.
I'll never forget what my dad said to me. "Sounds like a good idea son...just remember one thing: What the government giveth, the government can taketh away."
All it is going to take is a national consumption tax and all Roth IRA holders will be screwed. The idea that you trust the political class not to change the rules sometime the the distant future regarding Roth IRAs is a loser IMHO.
What I was told (not a business major) is that you are giving up free money if you don't contribute enough to receive the employer's match. They should examine investment opportunity to see if that is completely true. The mutual funds they offer in 401K accounts are known to be absolutely atrocius.
That kind of talk Sir, just might get you elected!! Viva la sheeple!
I READ SOMETHING REGARDING THE GOVERNEMENT TAKEOVER OF 401Ks BACK IN.....1991. This has been submitted for votes, in some form, every year since.
First I heard of it was with HillaryCare. I recall my accountant telling me she wanted to take 25% of all tax advantaged retirement accounts (one time surtax) in exchange for assuming liability for all of your future health costs.
Until they take the next 25%
There are at least 11 subscribers who don't understand what
'/sarc' means...
Long-John-Silver ,
You are fking idiot. So, we confiscate money from hard-working American who saved and contributed to their retirement and give to people who did not work and did not contribute?
This Jewish Bolsheviks have done in Russia and 25 millions people have died from starvation.
Next time, before stealing somebody else money, be very careful since somebody might kill you.
So much DOOM...
You may be right, but I prefer to ignore all this and be happy.
Why not? Tomorrow we die, but tonite we dine on Ramen!! Hazzahh!!!
You sir, are a masterful troll.
Satire is a powerful tool.
Isn't that just another way to say that, "ignorance is bliss"?
attaboy, hamy!
"paycheck to paycheck basis."
welcome to my world, bitchez!
lobotomies for all!
By the way, Congressional websites and phone lines have been crashed by the public (remember them?) following President's call to contact Congress:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/2chambers/post/members-of-congress-f...
LOL awesome.
Now if they could crash the White House phones, fax, and website, then we'll have a little less to worry about
Yes, but what are they saying to their congressperson once they pick up the phone?
The pension system (public and private) is one huge reason that the PPT will never let equities tank again.
Coming soon: haircuts for the bald.
Doesnt that involve a guillotine?
There is 12 blue states out of 50 or "240" not a great average in baseball but OK.
What? Light blue isn't blue. RACIST!
And of those 12, 6 (FL, SD, TN, TX, WA, WY) have no personal income tax. Not that there's any direct correlation between public pension funding and state tax regime - see AK and NV. Plus, I can't believe FL isn't red (plus NY, PA, MI).
This is insanely bullish. The stupid ass pension funds will keep pouring money into worthless stocks and an even faster rate.
the pension system is so broke in this state (I know because I work in the financial office here on campus), they had to go to Goldman Sachs because they need a return greater than 6% to keep the pensions afloat.
I told them to buy Gold and they laughed at me. Calling it a "hunk of junk".
I had to put every ounce of energy into restraining myself from wrapping my hands around his throat (my boss), jobs are hard to find and all...
Maybe you can contract out the management to the University of Texas. They are investing in gold. Also, the old rule was 10% in gold if you actually were considered wealthy. Perhaps your management thinks they are too poor to purchase quality assets.
but they forgot they bought it from someone that can lie about whether it really exists, and didn't take delivery right? They are half smart.
yeah, I know about Texas and physical gold (Kyle Bass is a genious).
Aside from Perry's questionable association with Bilderberg, the state is pretty ethical in governance.
The state of IL has the most corrupt leadership out any state in the union. 2/3 of our last governors are total crooks. 1 in the slammer and another one on the way.
The association with Goldman Sachs pretty much spells it out.
As a fellow IL resident, you have hit the nail on the head regarding our corrupt leadership. I propose that next time we just elect a governor already in prison and save ourselves the trouble of putting them there.
Perry is a crook and so are the other power players, but not as bad as the Chicago gang or the crooks in Clownifornia
Tell your boss NFLX is on sale today! That stock is not a hunk of junk, it's digital!
What money? That's the point. And with Nazi wannabes like The Boy Governor Walker, every middle class pension contributor is going to be contributing less and less until someone notices the math; then, the penniless, gun-owning vicitms will be having some good ole Fried Green Tomatoes bbq.
I didn't know every middle class person in the state worked for the government. Oh the horror. They have to contribute a portion of their retirement and healthcare. That's unheard of in the US. I thought everyone had everything paid for by the tax fairy.
Dear Illinois,
You are a bunch of corrupt and criminal nest featherers. Being a proud resident of the state I just have this to say- I ain't paying. Fuck you!
Your friend and proud resident,
Gold Dog
As another proud resident, I believe we deserve our own special shade of red for this map.
The worst thing is that these deficits are calculated on the assumption the funds achieve returns that Soros would be proud of. Knock these down a couple of percent, and it looks like an ocean of red...
"Defined contribution" Bitchez!
Pennsylvania is doing damned well if you consider the fact that government has not paid into the state pension fund since 2003. Every solitary cent that's gone in since then has been employee contributions (7% of salary, on top of SS/MC) or market gains (which were hit hard by, you know, the recession). When the economy eventually recovers, PA will be fine, so TPTB are laying it on thick about how distressed the fund is and how the only answer is to confiscate/ruin the pension plan now.
'When the economy recovers, PA will be fine'...not sure if this is satire or what.
Sure, we may be a bankrupt state in a bankrupt nation, but when the recovery swoops in suddenly WOW it will be great!
Huh?
No, I said PA will be fine. As in "there's no reason to lie about our financal problems and loot the pension funds" like the banksters and their bought politicians are proposing everywhere. We need more fascism about as much as we need more communism. Klepto opportunists can go elsewhere in search of victims.
You know... it is getting more and more expensive to be legal in this country.
I love it. People are going to get a crash course ass fucking in why you dont trust paper and the government over the next several years. No IRA, no 401K, just metals and a geocache for my retirement.
Forgive me for being crude but the bullshit coming out of the news lately is just making belligerant.
How the hell is Alaska in dark red with all of the oil revs it generates...
Everybody retired?
Because Sarah Palin is stupid.
Brilliant, did you come up with that one all by yourself?
It took 100 minds from the Puffington Ho's, raising the collective IQ of the group of dummies to 100, to thnk of that one.
.
Brilliant, did you come up with that one all by yourself?
Those savvy pension funds learned that instead of buying all those CDO's they should have been loading up on high beta stocks.
.
I think some of those state pension funds are like Spanish regional debt surprises turning up and acting like economic IEDs for the EU. Our state pension liabilities can still have some nasty hidden horrors yet to be "discovered". There's too much political vested interest in just keeping them out of sight, papering over real problems.
A market crash or USD crash could kill a Calpers PDQ. COLA calculation changes are just a confiscation and rationing of the promises made in an attempt to make the numbers work for now.
Calculations of state funding liabilites are often also based on fantasy anyway. The projected (already massive) Federal debt and deficits currently assume future low interest rates and Disney level imagineering of GDP 4% growth rates that will never happen. Projected obligations can only go way up because the numbers are so skewed to the optimistic side already. There's no room for all those "unexpected" downturns.
Let us not forget another secret hidden in the US financial minefield--the massive exposure of health and life insurance firms to MBS and related debt. This is very difficult to research, but one of the most important tripwire/booby traps out there.
Mark to market....but beware....
Surprised to see California in the upper tier of states...with all the press the state generates, you'd think they'd be in a much worse position.
I'm not sure revenue matters anymore. It seems all these financiers rely on gubberment to print more and loan them the money at near zero rate. Even States are now getting Fed money via the Big Banks who get the money for free from the discount window (for free) and then loan it to the State since most States can no longer issue bonds at a reasonable interest rate.
I'm thinking the Fed will be printing many more Trillions for States, FHA bailouts, more bank bailouts, etc. PMs and oil may reflect this printing/devaluation of the printed currency.
Pay up suckers, public workers are what made America great.
STFU noob!
What gets me is the hypocrisy.
We're subjected to an endless stream of complaints about redistribution by career politicians. Looting SS to take care of illegal Mexicans, endless property tax increases to fund schools, wasting road maintenance funds on fighting durkadurkas, etc. Most of the time, I agree that it's wrong, at least until the argument is framed such that super rich billionaires are the worst, and only, victims (which is stupid).
Then, yet another career politician steps up to the podium. He promises that he will fund all of these unconstitutional programs that everyone says they hate but scream like banshees if any cuts are imposed. He will not raise taxes on people who can afford to pay or people who will take advantage of the programs (often one in the same)...no, he will loot the retirement fund of your neighbors. The applause is deafening.
In other words, redistribution from you to someone else is bad but redistribution from someone else to you is great?
It's not right to eat a meal and run out on the check, so why is it right to use state services and steal the compensation of those providing them? If you had a problem, you had plenty of time beforehand to object but you were too busy stuffing your face. Someone else's money is as good as free and you've already got yours...
those percentages are likely substantially over optimistic.
any pension fund that is heavily invested in private equity (see, eg, Oregon) has invested a bundle in funds that lack objective valuation measures - they basically value them on what the PE pitchmen say they're worth - so one can imagine how that will turn out if TSHTF.
and many are probably knee deep in securities lending schemes of investment banks like State Street - a high risk/meager to non existant reward structure with a risk of being the next 'what in the world were they thinking' scandal.
There is no way California is light blue...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/overhaul-california%E2%80%99s-underfund...
Where are you in PA sheepdoggie dog? I agree it isnt all skittles and ponies here but all and all it ain't so bad. Plus we're sitting on an underground moutain of natural gas, which if the governor would allow taxes to be collected upon from outside biz (i would be fine in foregoing it for PA-based biz) we would have even more revenue. We shouldn't be giving away gas.
NY will not be light blue for much longer
Thank you for providing this very informative map. We will adjust our marketing efforts accordingly to pension fund mangers in the blue shaded states immediately.
Sincerely, Goldman Sachs
welcome to the Pension Ponzi and Casino
Ultimately it doesn't matter. The system is destined to fail. It is based on an expanding population and forever expanding tax revenues. Do any of these fuckers even plan for shit times?
What is the tipping point? What rate of inflation totally fucks the system? When will they fund it? When they have a surplus? Do they even plan to ever have a surplus?
Just hit the fucking reset button so we can start over. Starting over will be much more painless for most of us.
Underfunded on an annual cash flow basis but what about the Comprehensive Financial Report and Cash Reports each gvernment publishes. Somebody took the trouble for adding up all the assets of some 80K plus government entities. Walter ?? Any help out there?
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