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Mapping The EU Summit Political Maneuvers

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The politics of the EU summit appear quite tense, and as JPMorgan's CIO Michael Cembalest notes, you have to wonder if this is how monetary unions are made or broken: by strong-arming the Chancellor of the country primarily expected to fund the Euro’s survival. In order to better comprehend the shenanigans, Michael provides an aerial view of the summit and how these maneuvers played out. The next move is Germany’s.

The June 2012 EU Summit Maneuvers

Key:

The French Resistance to German austerity demands started with a threat by Hollande to surrender immediately, to not even support his own growth compact and to let the summit fail, unless Germany changed course. The growth compact was then agreed to. While it sounds good, no new monies were committed (the 120 bn Euros mentioned are from existing sources).

Italy switches sides: Prime Minister Monti, whose technocratic government was approved by Germany and who was expected to follow Germany’s austerity line, defected to Hollande’s camp and also threatened to allow talks to fail and blame the entire mess on Merkel. Sidenote: watch for a possible Napoleonic return from Berlusconi should conditions in Italy deteriorate.

Spain allied itself with Italy, and allowed Italy to attack Germany directly, since Spain’s banks and its entire economy are in much worse shape. Along with Italy, Spain is pushing for EU purchases of sovereign bonds with limited/no strings attached.

An isolated Germany retreated on its ESM lending stance and got little in return other than vague language about region-wide banking oversight by the ECB. Germany now has to sort out the internal politics of post-summit magazine covers showing an Italian kicking a soccer ball with Merkel’s head on it; a letter from 160 German economists criticizing Merkel’s approach at the summit; a comment by the German President that Merkel has the duty to describe in great detail what summit agreements mean for Germany’s budget; and France still reluctant to cede banking system or fiscal authority to an EU regulator, one of Germany’s demands.

Austria, Finland (inset) and the Netherlands, fiscally conservative allies of Germany, are dealt a blow by German concessions. Certain ESM provisions requiring 85% and 90% thresholds appear designed to thwart their potential objections.

Ireland sees itself as a big winner from the Hollande-Monti revolt, having argued since 2009 that the rich members should recapitalize EU banks directly, rather than each country being responsible for its own banks. Without any concessions from Germany, Ireland’s debt-GNP ratio would rise above 140%. Not clear if reality matches Irish expectations; perhaps Ireland will convince the EU to recap Allied Irish Bank and the Bank of Ireland with 15 billion (around 10% of Irish GNP).

After Great Britain vetoed the fiscal compact last year (which probably would not have applied to them anyway), it has been left on the sidelines politically, in “Splendid Isolation”. Given what is going on in Europe, not a bad place to be. The UK is not in great shape, but would be in disastrous shape had it joined the European Monetary Union.

Swiss wall of monetary neutrality under siege by capital inflows from the Periphery. Swiss National Bank FX reserves have grown by 40% of GDP since 2009, an enormous amount that China took over a decade to accumulate.

In a speech last November, Poland’s foreign minister stated that he may be the first to say he feared German inaction more than German action. On the other hand, he stressed the value of money, responsibility and the honest intention to repay as being the foundations of a moral order. Bottom line: Poland still wants to join the EMU, but is waiting for Germany to clean up the mess, and for the Periphery to adhere to new fiscal rules which would be “almost impossible to block”.

 

Source: JPMorgan

 


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Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment CitizenPete
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UNRELATED: Blatent Spam / Notice:

All eyes on Nebraksa

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Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Dan The Man
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A nice effort...but amerika is not a democracy.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

I saw John McCain on TV this weekend talking about Syria, Israel and the US need to intervene in Iran.

We need to have another John McCain post so that we can remind this senile sugarbaby, once again to FUCK OFF ASSHOLE.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment veyron
veyron's picture

Millions of dollars and thousands of manhours wasted on the Pauls (Rand, who publicly sold out, and Ron, who aligned himself with the Bilderberg Peter Thiel).  Sunk cost, move on ...

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
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32 out of 35 Minnesota committed delegates are secured for Dr. Paul.

 

 

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment sockratte
sockratte's picture

well, the strong-arming would have worked if the EU were also a political union. thats the essence of the european crisis imho.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

What you call the essence, smells like shit to me.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

EU will get their fiscal union and countries will no longer have sovereignty

because nobody gives a shit.  Europeans dont give a shit. 'Mericuns dont give a shit.

the dwindling number of people with common sense will be overtaken by the handout moochers blaming successful people for their problems and electing the corrupt politicians who promise them the world for nothing

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment tiger
tiger's picture

As long as news don't ruin their summer holidays and ATMs keep distributing cash Europeans won't give a mierda.
Nothing has a price: the price of fake money paper
Print Print Print Draghi Print

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

I've seen this diagram many many times, just go to youtube and type in "Hitler reacts".

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:31 | Link to Comment moskov
moskov's picture

EU is still qualified to make rules for others? How many summits and mettigns of EU dear leaders have been making in the past years. That's more than the number of any peak meeting season in a communist system. To believe Europeans are capitalists these days is the biggest joke on earth. EU is the biggest communist turd. Communism itself is invented by Turd European too

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment FXPortent
FXPortent's picture

So, we are right where we started with the EU...

 

Just more debt and more people living in abject poverty as they gather around for more handouts.

Sound familiar?

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Germany needs to understand that economics trumps politics.  The fear of Weimar lives on in the history books, but the world is a new place where we understand that when all countries increase their debt then this raises asset prices which fuels investment.  It is important to back the firms of the world, as the Nations, those that are not communist, rely on these firms to create the products that people need.  Cars are not made by the State of Germany, but by BMW.  Loans to small businesses are made by Deutsche Bank.  The politicians need to do what they can to create opportunity for the firms by using the science of economics to properly spur growth. 

Germans must recognize how far the science has come.  We can create money at the push of a button, and this money will create growth because people will work for it.  Obviously unemployment is the main problem for europeans right now.  Germany should help get the Spanish, Greeks, and others back to work by using the policy tools we have developed to better society.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:44 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

 

"when all countries increase their debt then this raises asset prices which fuels investment"

What!?! MDB?

"Germans must recognize how far the science has come"

I think that's why they're saying "Nein!" ... they realise all too well how far down the wrong path the "science" has "come"!

Overall ... nice satire. Though we usually do Friday Humour on Fridays....

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Nachdenken
Nachdenken's picture

Push button money will create growth because people will work for it.

This sounds serious,  the pump priming myth of unfunded, unrepayable debt. 

O debt where is thy sting.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 13:07 | Link to Comment ZIRPThis
ZIRPThis's picture

I'm hoping this is a parody-mocking of the idiocy of Krugman, in which case I both laugh and applaud; otherwise this is almost too stupid to waste a response on.  Debt financing through fiat currency digitization only raises the number of paper dollars it takes to purchase an asset.  If the price increases but the value remains stagnant, all you get is another bureaucrat's shriveled dick in your ass, and a lighter wallet.  And economics is only a science to the point that it incorporates basic math.  The rest is common fucking sense.  Elaborate econometric graphs and "theories" about the next micro-maniacal tool the central planners will use to convince the citizens of sheepletonia that they're actually working to help them..might win you another worthless Nobel Prize in economics, but will really just get you laughed out of the room anywhere else.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Here we go again.  JPM's CIO's forecast now considered "expert opinion".

 

Tomorrow, gold and silver will get smashed and everyone will blame it on JPM the "evil empire".

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Gold bulls will clutch their metal from the top to the bottom in hope that a relic is a good investment. 

Maybe these people should make cave paintings and eat bone marrow, too?

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Doc, I have to say your writing is getting better all the time. Cave paintings and eating bone marrow? LOL.

Look out MDB, you have met your match.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment slyhill
slyhill's picture

Uhhhm, check and check.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:38 | Link to Comment mrktwtch2
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krugman?? that liberla hack would never been on this board..as we only tell the truth here!!

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
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Fcuk this, I'm moving the rest of my armies into the Kamchatka and Brazil.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 16:25 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

Risk On!

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment duo
duo's picture

Looks like we're only missing a France-Russia mutual defence pact to make it 1914 again.

Austrian politicians are to avoid Sarajevo at all costs.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

Even if Germany agreed to fund the rest of Europe it does not have enough money to do so. The only group wealthy enough to sort out this mess are the Rothschilds who, unlike the Germans,  have some major responsibility for creating this mess in the first place.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 12:16 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Nice negative rates on the French auctions.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

belgium rates are dropping fast also.
without reason....
so I think it's a trick of the elite to let people feel save and kill the pension funds in the same time.
income? WE DON'T NEED NO STINKING INCOME!

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Nachdenken
Nachdenken's picture

Welcome to the money-go-round, chose the debt you will ride.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment digalert
digalert's picture

Brilliant, meanwhile NATO surrounds them all, awaiting a call for 'aid' (bombs for peace) to shower over any rogue sovereign wishing to escape.

Mon, 07/09/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Vegetius
Vegetius's picture

Earth to Krugman! Lets hope we are not depending on the Great Krugman to save us.

Quote time-

 

“The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.”
  -Friedrich von Hayek

 

“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.” 

- Ernest Miller Hemingway

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