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Marc Faber Sees 100% Probability Of Global Recession In 2013

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From around two minutes into this CNBC clip, Marc Faber brings the conversation back into sharp focus. Noting that "whenever everybody focuses on just one thing - Greece and Europe in this case - there are other things that are far more important - such as a meaningful slowdown in India and China - going on that are being ignored". But remaining on the topic of Europe, Faber consistently opines that the next event risk will be the Greek exit - even though Faber suspects strongly that Germany will cave to Eurobonds eventually - as he comments that the longer the delay of a restructuring/default/exit/euro-bonds takes the higher the probability of a gigantic systemic failure. This subject brings up (at around 3:30) an interesting perspective that the European market would be oddly relieved (not plunging 50%) if Greek exited the Euro as there would be some clarity (though Faber adds that bank and insurance stocks would likely be crushed). At five minutes in though, Faber ramps up the rhetoric noting that while stock indices are not performing terribly, there are many economically sensitive (and luxury) stocks that are down very significantly - which suggests to him that the huge asset price run of the last decades in come to an end prompting the question of the day from CNBC's Cramer-stand-in "You're not looking for a recession in the US are you?" Faber, in his calm, thoughtful way responds, "I think we will have a global recession late this year, early next year", to which a stunned Wapner asks for odds (surely 30%, 50%?) of this recession - "100% certainty" comes the reply to leave Wapner throwing in the towel on any positive spin as Faber suggests the only 'investment' in this case is 'Cash USD' and investors must own some gold.

 

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Fri, 05/25/2012 - 13:51 | 2463092 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Can we make it that long Marc? That is my only question...

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 13:51 | 2463094 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

100% sooner on the 100%.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 13:55 | 2463110 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Well at least it's better than 110%.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:03 | 2463130 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

only banksters and con-men comprehend anything above 100%................anything over that is a reach around.......

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:06 | 2463146 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

This economy is a walking crack addict and no cops to stop it.  There are no markets, only our neighbors' houses, which we break into and steal what we can find.  Maybe we OD, maybe we go into heart  or liver failure.  How this crack addict dies is less important than knowing that it must and will die.  It's what crack addicts do.  If the Euro crisis was suddenly solved, it would not stop anything.  It is systemic failure. 

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:16 | 2463168 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

please don't discriminate re crack addicts. it's much worse than that.

 

by Janus everyone smoke crack!

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 16:46 | 2463687 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

recession proof career: crack dealer

 

China has been cutting back for a year now.

 

If nobosy consumes, then how will economy run?

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 17:04 | 2463725 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

June 1 2011 ....FXI @ $45

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-Cz45S5Bos

 

In one year, the Chinese economy will perform poorly. That is, they will have a recession This could be a technical recession from a gross rate of say 10% per year to 3% per year, then it is a recession. You also shouldn't believe in the gross GDP that China reports. If you adjust for the real rate of inflation, then true growth is even slower.

 

October 2011...FXI @ $30 (-33%)

May 2012...FXI @ $32

 

but Marc may be shilling little bit for his own gain here advocating US treasuries....He probably got out of equities and put them in Long Term Treasuries already and wants everyone else to jump in as well. US Treasuries are indeed up (25%) since a year ago June 2011 as it is effectively the only short you can have in your 401k.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 18:43 | 2463923 Mauibrad
Mauibrad's picture

 

The Greek take on it:  http://youtu.be/Zvl9N9GdraQ

 

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 20:03 | 2464087 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

If nobosy consumes, then how will economy run?

 

Wealth creation is a function of production, not consumption.  Most fundamental truth of economic activity that the liberal mindset just can't seem to grasp. 

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 21:13 | 2464225 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Production of the wrong output isn't usually called "wealth creation," though.

Our education and medical industries have done very well over the past 20 years, no?

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:21 | 2463180 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Jim Willie talks another huge event few are talking about.  JPM, Interest Rate Swaps, and the implosion of the US Treasury market.

USTBond Tower of Babel Teeters

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/ 

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 15:02 | 2463320 Michael
Michael's picture

as he comments that the longer the delay of a restructuring/default/exit/euro-bonds takes the higher the probability of a gigantic systemic failure.

That's my plan, and it goes for the whole world. Please give me more QE BB.

Side note;

I didn't know Iran had the highest enriched uranium on the planet acording to the MSM, I thought Israel achieved that status first in the ME.

Jimmy Carter - Israel Has over 150 Nukes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-GLj7NvWBM

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 15:04 | 2463373 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Jimmy Carter - Israel Has over 150 Nukes

Yeah, like 4-5x's that number.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 00:54 | 2464569 Clashfan
Clashfan's picture

Thanks for this, Pegasus. MK has had him on. I am reading the piece on fascism/corruption, and it's excellent, especially the point about the big push beginning w/the JFK hit. Excellent link. :)

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 01:48 | 2464644 Clashfan
Clashfan's picture

Pegasus, if I read Willie correctly, wow. The top piece to which you refer, the IRS swaps and losses spiraling out of control... wow. I'm not sure how much of it to believe. It can't be true, can it? This looks like the worst of the worst.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 13:53 | 2463102 valley chick
valley chick's picture

already in a recession....take away govt handouts we would be in a depression.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 15:04 | 2463370 THECOMINGDEPRESSION
THECOMINGDEPRESSION's picture

Once the makeup is painted over all currencies, this is what it will look like:

http://www.milfmakeup.com

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 17:09 | 2463737 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

take away government educated population, government built roads, government bailout of banksters, government protection of security....basically take away government, you have no economy.

 

we live in socialism where top 0.1% fools everyone into giving them multimilliondollar bonuses for capitalism merit.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 20:01 | 2464076 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

take away government educated population, government built roads, government bailout of banksters, government protection of security....basically take away government, you have no economy.

 

Take all those things away and then - and only then - do you have the foundation for a real economy.  Thanks for teeing that one up, AH.

Nit-Picky Note: 100% probability is a contradiction in terms, like sole option

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 13:54 | 2463105 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The Bernanke must have bought a new fiddle. 

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 13:55 | 2463106 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

For the youths of the world, there's already been a systemic failure.  Perhaps it's time for the over-indebted, and entitled baby boomers to share some of our pain.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:48 | 2463305 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

man up; no one gives a shit about you; your mommy is dead; welcome to the real world motherfucker.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 16:52 | 2463699 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Suitable quote: 

Man, I see in fight club the strongest and smartest men who've ever lived. I see all this potential, and I see squandering. God damn it, an entire generation pumping gas, waiting tables; slaves with white collars. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need. We're the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our Great War's a spiritual war... our Great Depression is our lives. We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars. But we won't. And we're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 17:20 | 2463757 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

there's always someone who should be more pissed off than you:

Served 5 years in jail for fake rape charge and missed out college football career (for USC, UCLA) while his mother sold house and car to pay for lawyers. Entered plea bargain to avoid 42year sentence.

Accuser friends you on facebook after you get out of jail and admits that she lied.

Accuser won $1.5M in settlement fees from school district (aka. layoff teachers).

 

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2012/05/ex-football-player-says-ra...

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 13:54 | 2463108 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

I'm 99% sure he's wrong

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 13:54 | 2463109 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

can't stand that meat shed Wapner...f'ing idiot.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 13:56 | 2463116 Obvious Paradox
Obvious Paradox's picture

Surely this is bullish news.  When is the next Ipad coming out?

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:03 | 2463133 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

I'm 100% sure it will be announced in the first half of 2013...

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 13:58 | 2463119 caconhma
caconhma's picture

Marc Faber is an intertainer.

"Marc Faber Sees 100% Probability Of Global Recession In 2013". WOW!

Will it happen on Feb. 3, 2013 at 2:31 PM or on Feb. 30, 2013 and 10:33 AM?

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:04 | 2463139 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

February 30th?  Oh yeah, that is the day that the banksters have agreed to turn themselves into law enforcement to face charges of corruption, fraud, treason, etc.  That February 30th.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 13:59 | 2463120 e-man
e-man's picture

I caught that one too, this morning.  He also said that the markets would bounce back up, once the Greek situation was resolved one way or another, and that he thought Germany would finally sway toward allowing Euro bonds.  Gotta love Faber, people just hate hearing the truth.  They just look at you like a deer in the headlights.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 13:59 | 2463124 Fail2Deliver
Fail2Deliver's picture
I am grateful for the work you do Tyler. This is the one source of real financial news to counter the government sponsored CNBC. Seriously is there anyone,anyone on CNBC worth listening to (other than Rick Santelli)?
Fri, 05/25/2012 - 15:17 | 2463419 beachdude
beachdude's picture

Maybe just the commodities reporters, like Dan Dicker on energy. I come off of mute for Santelli, Dicker, and Epperson. Although her softball interview of Blythe Masters knocked her down a few pegs.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 13:59 | 2463126 metaforge
metaforge's picture

Ah yes... USD Cash... the safest place to be!  ...  Until one day it isn't.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:00 | 2463129 youngman
youngman's picture

Was he wearing a Hoodie.....???  100% sure...me too....BUT our government numbers will never show it.....the new normal is 11% unemployment..50 million on food stamps...15 million on disability...60% not paying Federal taxes...all is good in the ole USA...

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:02 | 2463131 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

2013?  Hey. Marc, what the hell do you think that the global economy has been in since at least 2008? If you cover a turd with lots of paper, does it change the name and smell?

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:08 | 2463150 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Baby Ruth?

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:40 | 2463256 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

Tootsie Roll.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:03 | 2463132 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Cash USD and gold??  Are they rather not contrary investments?  Consistency is the mark of small minds.

I would suggest silver and gold and a basket of currencies, if you want to own fiat.  Just enough to last 2 years at a maximum.  A lot of fiat will be proven worthless soon enough.

How about farm land, Mr Farber?

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:15 | 2463166 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Fukushima screwed the farmland. Plutonium does that.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:33 | 2463232 BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

Monsanto and Tyson are busy lobbying to make that farmland worthless. I'm not going to pretend like I'm a farmer, but I've read some chilling reports on the regulation that Tyson is trying to push on small time farmers.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 15:02 | 2463368 DosZap
DosZap's picture

BlueCollaredOne

The(gub) have already put many agencies in charge of those,small farms/ers.

The newest gig is Organics, sold on roadside stands and farmers mkts.

No inspections, no TAXES,their and out butts are grass getting fresh Organic produce.

Seeds that grow more than once(repro), are almost gone..........soon will be.( esp to the open mkt).

Another step, and likely the most important one of all..........you control the food, and you control everything.

I think the cap busting will start well before this all comes to a head.

And Tyson loves to sell diseased chickens,and drain the blood into rivers, and streams, (and donate big bucks to certain parties).........no range fed period.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:42 | 2463270 DosZap
DosZap's picture

How about farm land, Mr Farber?

First its FABER, second, WILL you be able to pay the taxes on land?.

What if they just take it.............?,you cant hide LAND.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:06 | 2463145 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

100% certain? Is that physical or paper certain?

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:07 | 2463148 KandiRaverHipster
KandiRaverHipster's picture

CNBC gets pwnd lol

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:08 | 2463151 e-man
e-man's picture

Markets negative again today.  I think ZH should have a special post where you can guess the exact time the Magic Market Fairy will appear. Winner gets a Banzai7 TShirt.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:11 | 2463156 Conman
Conman's picture

2:30 pm - but who knows PPT prob took the day off.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 14:47 | 2463295 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

I dunno--we got a three day weekend, and it's probably the last one before the swans make an appearence. I don't think they'd want to waste the opportunity to try to 'fix' things before Tuesday.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 15:24 | 2463443 e-man
e-man's picture

Anyone smell the magic green dust yet?

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