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Marc Faber Sees A 1987-Like Crash Approaching
When given the opportunity to expand on his thoughts, Marc Faber, of the Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report, provides dismally clarifying detail on the state of the world. In this excellent (must-watch on a day when nothing changed but European stocks dead-cat-bounced) Bloomberg TV interview, the admittedly ursine Faber reflects on the US (slowing of revenue growth and the real linkages to European stress) noting that unless we get a huge QE3, there will be "a crash, like in 1987" noting he believes we have seen the highs for the year; on the likelihood of QE3 (agreeing with us that the Fed won't act unless asset markets plunge first); on Greece's exit of the Euro and whether policy-makers can manage the exit properly "bureaucrats in Brussels and the media are brainwashing everybody that if Greece exited the euro, it would be a disaster. My view is the best would be to dissolve the whole euro zone"; on the difference between investment markets and economic reality (thanks to financial repression); and on the global race-to-debase "I do not have a high opinion of the U.S. government, but the bureaucrats in Brussels make the government in the U.S. look like an organization consisting of geniuses. The bureaucrats in Brussels are completely useless functionaries".
Faber on whether he still thinks that profit margins will shrink and record profits seen will be no more for U.S. corporations:
"Yes, if you look at the statements by corporations, it is very clear. Earlier on, you had a commentator who said the exports to Europe from the U.S. are irrelevant. I agree with that. What is relevant are the businesses of American corporations in Europe and the earnings they derive from these businesses. That is definitely slowing down. The revenue growth is slowing down and, in my view, you will have more and more corporations that report earnings that are actually good but they do not exceed expectations…The bottom line is I think the market will have difficulty moving up strongly on less we have a massive QE3 and if it moves here and makes the high above 1422, the second half of the year could witness a crash."
"A crash, like in 1987…because the market would become technically very weak. I would expect the market making a new high. If it happens, it would be a new high with very few stocks pushing up and the majority of stocks have already rolled over. The earnings outlook is not particularly good because most economies in the world are slowing down. People focus on Greece but Greece is completely irrelevant. What is relevant are two countries -- China and India -- 2.5 billion people combined. They are a huge market for goods and these economies are slowing down massively at the present time."
On whether more Fed stimulus will put a floor on the S&P 500 this year:
"Yes, I think we had a rally that began March 2009 at 666 on the S&P. We made an orthodox pop a year ago on May 2, 2011 at 1370. Then we made a new high on April 2 of this year. The new high was not confirmed by the majority of shares and many shares are already down 20% or so and every day, there are shares that are breaking down or they no longer go on good news which is a bad sign. I think maybe we have seen the high from the year unless you get a huge QE3. That may not be forthcoming."
On whether the Fed will issue QE3:
"I think that QE3 will come, but it depends on asset markets. If the S&P dropped here another 100-150 points, I think that QE3 will occur. But if the S&P bounces back and we are above 1400, I think the Fed will essentially be waiting to see how the economy develops. The economy in the U.S. consists of different economies, some of it is very strong. I was in southern California and there the economy is doing fine. In other places, it is not doing fine. It is not universally bad. Compared to other countries, it is actually doing relatively well."
On whether Greece will exit the euro:
"There is a very good chance they will exit the euro and it would have been desirable if the euro countries had kicked out Greece three years ago. It would have saved a lot of agony. As a result of the bailout, the problem has become bigger and bigger and bigger."
On whether policymakers can manage the exit properly:
"I think it would be much better for Greece and the entire euro area if Greece were kicked out. Spain kicked out. Italy out and even France should be out. At the end you just have Germany with the euro. The other countries can have their own currencies and still trade and use the euro as an international currency."
"The bureaucrats in Brussels and the media are brainwashing everybody that if Greece exited the euro, it would be a disaster. My view is the best would be to dissolve the whole euro zone and that the countries would go back to their own currencies and still use the euro as an international currency the way you travel through Latin America and with a dollar you can pay anywhere you with. In my view, that would be the best. These countries that have financial difficulties, you will have to write off their debts and make it difficult for them to access the capital market in the future. Just to keep bailing them out will increase the problem. It will not solve the problem."
On how economic catastrophe can be avoided if the euro is dissolved:
"Explain to me why there would be an economic catastrophe. Many countries have pegged currencies have given up the peg to another currency and it was not a catastrophe. The public has been brainwashed that the breakup of the euro would be a complete disaster when in fact, it may be the solution."
On whether there will be a race to the bottom among various countries to devalue their own currencies if the euro is dissolved:
"I do not have a high opinion of the U.S. government, but the bureaucrats in Brussels make the government in the U.S. look like an organization consisting of geniuses. The bureaucrats in Brussels are completely useless functionaries and they want to maintain their power. They always talk about austerity being bad but if you look at the government expenditures of the EU, in 2000, it was 44% of GDP. Since then, it has grown by 76% under the influence of the Keynesian clowns and now it is 49% of GDP. That is the problem of Europe -- too much government spending and lack of fiscal discipline."
On whether it's a mistake to short the euro:
"I want to make this very clear -- the investment markets may move in different directions than the economic reality because if you print money. That's why in the Bloomberg poll, Mr. Bernanke is viewed so favorably because fund managers and analysts and strategists, they are only interested in having stocks up so their earnings increase and their bonus pool increases. But in reality, the economy can go downhill and stocks can go up just because of money printing and in Europe, the ECB has proven now that they are very good money printers."
On where to invest in Europe:
"Actually, usually when socialists come in or there is a crisis such as we have in Greece, it occurs usually near market lows. If someone really wanted to take speculative positions, he should look at quality non- financial stocks in countries like Spain, Italy, France, and Greece. I think rebound is coming. The market on a short-term basis is oversold. But if you look at the market action -- first of all, we made a low on the S&P last October at 1074. We went to 1422. The market is down from 1422 to less than 1360. The whole world is screaming we're in a bear market. This is a minor correction. I think it may become a more serious correction as the technical picture of the market has deteriorated very badly and as the S&P made a new high this year on April 2nd, all the European markets are lower than they were a year ago."
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Prediction for the day it happens:
The next trading day after Brian Sack steps down.
My models show Faber has a 50/50 chance of being correct.
...but my Models also calculate that 5 Trillion jobs have been created or saved by President Obama.
Faber has been predicting infinite QE response as well. Seems to me he's doing a little bit of betting on both sides of the coin now.
Everyone is. Even Tyler is. Inflation, deflation, these terms are irrelevent now. Stock prices are irelevent. Fiat's value, although it only hs perceived value as it has no intrinsic worth, is all that matters. The Central Bankers, these mizers of economics, now have the wind at their backs as their balance sheets are flush with cash. They can ofer the opportunity of loans by the bushel, and usher in the greatest move in the "money" supply ever known, and only with a simple lending technique: that of the fractional reserve.
I simply dont see it, this wave of pent-up loan activity that will be next. How the hell do a bunch of bankrupt unemployed people spark a flurry of fractional reserve loan activity?
Someone has to unload those lots stuffed full of Government Motors cars. Cadillac CTS here we go.
Pieces of junk.
You wanna talk about junk? I gotta warehouse full of "Invisible Pedestrian" Halloween Costumes I bought last August. They ain't movin' at all. If anyone's interested, I can give you a good price on the costumes and some Tony Perkins' shower curtains.
It's even simpler than that Doc.
When they finally start lending, rates will be floating and people will be desperate.
Businesses will take what-ever money at some point. Then comes the squeeze, in-evitable rate-raising....bingo....real asset confiscation.
And of course businesses will build models to justify takign such loans because at a point, balls to wall, you take whatever.
that is how I see it playing out.
ori
mt-whitney-to-tanggula-pass-obliquely
No shit. I neglected to figure in variable rates horseshit.
I thank my stars that our company has no debt, the irrevocable trust does not allow board members to take on debt, and we have a strong cash flow.
Wow, a debtless company in this day and age? When I launch my next, I'll put in such a clause too. No Banking Santa Clauses for anyone!
ori
The law firm that put together the trust tried, over my loud objections, to force in borrowing provisions against private compay shares FOUR seperate times. The law firm would sneak it into different parts of the trust after each request was made for it to be removed. Each conference call just made me boil.
Before the final draft came, I sternly objected to the lending provisions to the Chairman of the Board citing the various ways our company could be destroyed under that premise. He said I misunderstood what the firm was doing and asked me to have a conference call with him and the firm. He point blank asked, "Can any board members put their shares up as collateral for a loan?" His answer was "Yes."
After a wide-eyed discussion the Chairman understood what I was getting at and the fifth request for removing the debt verbiage was honored. I wonder if the firms insistance that it be there had anything to do with the firm being the last in line of the trust after depedents of board members are dead. Would be a cash cow of leverage in this company. Bunch of fuck tards.
Lawccountants, the worst of the worst. If all you can see is fees, fees and more fees...
That is an interesting anecdote, thanks for sharing.
ori
Not so for Small biz. I see them using this economy to get rid of shitty employees and cutting to the point to where the core just says fuck the fiat and get by making what they like to do.
On the other hand if the core of the co. are shitty people the company is going to crash regardless of how much fiat they have.
The real producers and people with normal and practical morals are waking up in droves. They're sick of the bullshit..
The massive economic reset is coming.
Prepare, and enjoy the show.
A 'Loan' is just free money, if you never intend to pay it back.
Whenever Faber shows up on ZH I'm fairly certain it ain't gonna be about positive economic developments during a global depression.
What positive economic developments?
does a 1987 style crash include a Bon Jovi revival?
Calling Mr. Banzai - Ben Bernanke doing a version of Living on Prayer.
"Take my hand, we'll make it I swear."
I like this comment on an OilDrum article on Norwegian production drop:
Thanks for a great article Rune. Figure 5 says it all. That is, these new discoveries will slow the decline down for a couple of years but there is no real game change in them. I have used the EIA's Crude + Condensate numbers below to show Norway's decline rate since their peak in 2001. The decline starts off slow at first then speeds up as more and more fields go into decline. The average decline rate for the last seven years, 2005 thru 2011, is 7.77 percent. That is the total decline of all fields meaning that any new fields coming on line during that period would subtract from the total decline, bringing the average decline down to 7.77%.
Norway C+C production in kb/d according to the EIA.
Year C+C Prod. Decline from previous year 2001 3,226 0.15% 2002 3,131 -3.06% 2003 3,042 -2.91% 2004 2,954 -2.97% 2005 2,698 -9.51% 2006 2,491 -8.33% 2007 2,270 -9.71% 2008 2,182 -4.05% 2009 2,067 -5.54% 2010 1,869 -10.60% 2011 1,752 -6.68%From examining the decline rate of fields all over the world it is obvious that the new discoveries, due to their small size and great depth and pressure, have a much higher decline rate than the much older giant fields. I have noticed that some of the fields in the Gulf of Mexico have a decline rate of 15% or greater.
Jevons Paradox in full display.
Greater the efficiency the greater the draw-down. "Strength through exhaustion!"
yup
Or they can maximize the amount of cash they indebt the public with, bust the public and take all their chit.
You are demon spawn squid, what do you do?
1. Rob society, bust them, take all their chit and enslave them.
2. Bail out debtors and zero out your trillions in debt and cash holdings?
QE has never been about fixing the economy - it was engineered to be a societal asset stripping Ponzi Scheme.
Debt Money Tyranny
http://www.keepandshare.com/doc/3325954/debt-dollar-tyranny-2-54k?tr=77
Weapons of Mass Debt
http://www.keepandshare.com/doc/3324744/wmdebt-graph-3-79k?tr=77
Keep and Share is a PDF hosting link - nothing nefarious about it.
The Fed hasn't lied about its mandate and broken its true mandate for 25 years to bail out debtors and wipe out the Owners of the companies that put their employees on the Fed's Board of Directors.
No way.
QE represents the inner party using tax payer issued debt to prop up markets so the inner party can "quantitatively ease" the amount of money they could lose in the markets. Period.
They can't tell you that, so you they LIE to you. All you who think the Fed has a dual mandate, look at the Section 2A of the Federal Reserve Act and read it. The mandate is singular (and listed in the Weapons of Mass Debt PDF link above).
I respect Marc Faber more than I respect myself, but I see an A.D. 476-like crash coming.
Really Aziz? More than yourself? I'd suggest you get rid of all your mirrors, it works to build that self respect back up. ;-)
But really Aziz? AD 476? New Dark Ages set to begin? That sounds like the only darker sentiment for the future than my own eschatology that I have heard.
I'll take a clean slate over a dark age any day. Tsunamis, Volcanoes, Liquidity (Ahhh) Injections (ouch)....
ori
476 wasn't the end of the world, Ori. Greater things came out of humanity after the fall of the Classical world (eventually). But sometimes I think Mother Nature likes to clean out all the debris...
But then those greater things got subsumed in greater darkness Aziz. it's all cyclical anyways, you know that all too well. Question is, is it Super wave time of just a wee ripple in the fabric.
ori
Interesting, looks like 6 ZHer's do not understand the word eschatology and lack a sense of humor to boot.
Super Dave... I really liked that guy!
It'll be super, that you can count on.
Classical "world" or a portion of Europe? Other parts of the world were doing just fine at the time. Rome was not the whole world. As a matter of fact Rome was not even Rome by then. Constantinople did very well for a few centuries afterwards. If the US was to crash now in huge magnitude, it would take the whole world down with it. We would see wars and famine like nothing ever seen before in History. We still have the means to produce. What we have is too much debt and a default, as painful as it will be, would clear that out just like Iceland and many countries before.
Sorry I just don't see 476 as a good example.
I can see ORI just still can't seem to make any friends in this forum.
Xela, making friends is easy, you just nod with the group. What a waste.
ori
...bu... bu... but ROMNEY SAYS HE WOULD CREATE 500k jobs PER MONTH if he is elected!! He is a genius!! How can you NOT believe him? Why didn't we vote for him to begin with?? I mean any man with a net worth of $300 MILLION is certainly in touch with reality and Main Street USA!! HE KNOWS!!
...
...
SARC OFF
GAME OVER!!
You mean Romney is promissing the same thing Biden promissed two years ago? Then it must be true...bipartisan cooperation.
http://www.jammiewf.com/2012/flashback-biden-predicts-500000-jobs-each-m...
/sarc
Game over, dude.
The 1987 crash pales vs 1929 crash which pales vs the next bigger crash. I think I'm feeling pale.
Idiots who thumbed down my post have no sense of humor or insight... read it again and you'll see, it doesn't matter if you vote for Obumbo or Romney because they are both the same puppets...
I gave you a thumbs up. I understand sarcasm and facetious commentary all too well. ;-)
my models show oBLAHma and cohorts going to hell, where they shall all suck shit thru a straw!
Those odds are too favorable.
Seriously betty liu is a fucking retard - can we please get somebody smart to ask these people some questions or is there no one left?
Bloomberg is cutting lots of staff. Too bad, as they are the only financial network that is a) free b) not completely owned by G.E./Turner/FoxCorp.
Won't crash for sure before the Facebook robbery IPO next Friday.
Farber is correct, but I don't think all US corporations will be doing bad. But what scares me the most is the fact that the past few weeks there has been an increase in reporting that much of China's financial and economic data is false. And if that is so and they have papered over a recession/depression then we may see severe cutbacks in the US corporations.
I found my thrills on blue berry hill when I met Milken. In 1987 flash storm the index fell 10-15% but it survived.
And today?
Did they have rehypothecation chains that extended from here to the moon at that time?
The sounds of those chains breaking would be similar to the sound coming from a popcorn popper in full tilt.
I have had so many former clients call me up asking what to do since their assigned manager is spewing the BS recovery propaganda to them.. and I tell them like it is..
BUY GOLD AT ANY PRICE... don't concern yourself with daily fluctuations... all you need to know about the global economy is this---- the whole world is drowning in ponzi debt and the CB's of the world will print to infinity... there will be NO recovery so long as they continue to print, which they will, god forbid a major catastrophe like a M9.9 earthquake hits LA (and then then will REALLY PRINT like you have never seen) and the only store of value will be gold, guns and green beans when the shit hits the fan...
Like Tyler says, they will print, until they can't... math agrees
How can a money manager spew anything but a recovery? If his client is in cash, how does he make money? This is an honest question. He will not make any money on GLD or gold coins.
>>"How can a money manager spew anything but a recovery? "<<
Correct. As I have said, they must sell the whole "the sun will come out tomorrow" BS. The majority of UHNW/HNW clients are educated and well informed. Many didn't by the BS then, they don't buy it now. Every once and a while, some rich oil tycoon from Texas would just buy anything because he didn't care to lose... he would be moved into the high risk high margin asset classes...
The rules have changed since 2008 and was the main reason I retired...
I want to be judged by my integrity and honor, not by how much wealth I amassed...
They don't teach integrity or honor in school any longer.
First day of business school I was taught that the purpose of business is profit. What we need is not to teach integrity in school but critical thinking. Integrity is learned at home. Schools are for learning trades or profession not moral values. It is the over reliance in schools that cause many of these problems in the first place.
Speaking of Predictions..... Ron Paul is F-ing Nostradamus.
http://youtu.be/meFjza6BpEA
Actually Glenn Beck was even more prescient than Ron Paul.
I can't figure out why Beck is not more popular. I mean he is entertaining indeed clownish at times, does his research, presents cogent arguments ...etc..,
Oh yeh thats right he is/was on LSM. Viewers have been conditioned to vomit up anything that is not fascist kool aid.
Gotta love the down arrows.... vomiting up anything that is not kool aid.hehe.
Glenn Beck pissed off the entire 911 truth movement, and lost a BIG audience when he did it. Lots of people consider him a shill.
I'm not a 911 truther and Glenn Beck sucks for a myriad of other reasons. Especially when he will stand up there and espouse Ron Paul's foreign policy views, and then say he agrees with Ron Paul about everything EXCEPT foreign policy. Like he's trying to lead people into believing Ron Paul has different views.
Basically he's a neocon trickster as far as I can tell. He's never said an original thing in his entire life as far as I can tell either. He wants you to vote for Mitt Romney and Glenn Beck was pro-bailout. Hah! Obvious plant is obvious. Along with your upvotes... 7 dupe accounts? Glenn Beck's ratings go down the tube so much he has to fish for new listeners on ZH?
For such a stand-out voice, you sure are sensitive about those red arrows.
Glenn Beck was pro-bailout.
Because it ain't cool to respect Beck. He could have nailed down everything from 2 or 3 years ago and he still wouldn't be cool. Period.
I agree with many of Beck's views but the truth is Beck is a Zionist, bible thumping, carnival barker.
awesome ! Every merican should see this video !
Even more amazing is his overall track record... Ron Paul is one of the very few who are consistent and don't flip flop... even if you don't agree with all his policies, you must admit that much!! GO RP!!
The only thing I do not agree with is his disbelief of evolution theory, which makes him look rather silly tbh.
Many people I know have a hard time reconciling their religious beliefs with the evolution theory. All I can ever get from them is I don't believe we come from monkeys referring to chimps or gorillas. but that is fine, I don't see Ron Paul forcing his religious beliefs on the rest of us or quoting the bible to make a point.
Evolution requires a faith in some supernatural force that can ignore the laws of nature. DNA is far too complex to have 'evolved'. Entropy alone says things move to a state of disorder unless acted upon by an outside, countervailing force. Examination of any living organism, from a single cell upward, reveals an astoundingly complex infrastructure. How, for instance, did certain single-celled organisms 'evolve' their equivalents of electric motors? At the opposite end, how did anything evolve that required two genders to reproduce? Which came first, the male or the female? And what did that gender do to reproduce while waiting for the other gender to reappear? After all, if body structures appear as a result of a series of beneficial mutations, what are the chances of both male and female reproductive parts evolving at the exact same moment? (Hint - try 'zero'.)
There are good, scientific books written showing that genetic mutation will not lead to better organisms, but will result instead in degraded organisms. Try reading "Genetic Entropy" by Dr. J.C. Sanford (ISBN 978-0-9816316-0-8 according to my copy) and see what you think. I urge everyone to read about the scientific wonders embodied in the 'simplest' of organisms. On the pro-evolution side there are no books that can definitively point to examples of organisms in transition from one species to another.
Micro-evolution, the ability of certain species to differentiate into sub-species to adapt to local conditions, is different from what is generally thought of when one says 'evolution'. This ability to adapt is apparently built into the DNA. Once Darwin's version of evolution is discarded - and even he saw the possibility of its demise based on future knowledge not available to him - it is impossible to not arrive at accepting some sort of intelligent design. Darwin, for instance, envisioned the individual cell as essentially a blob of jelly and never realized the incredible (and irreducible) complexity within each cell.
Some may wish to envision a sentient universe that, through some strange inherent ability can encourage living organisms. Others may attribute life to God, or find some other supernatural cause. Regardless, Darwin's evolution is scientifically described by the term 'baloney', to be polite. In a free society everyone gets to choose his preferred supernatural explanation. As for me, I prefer the God of the Bible, since there is no scientific evidence to refute the Bible's story of the origin of life on Earth. Many have rejected that because admitting that there is a Biblical God would require admitting that God determines morality, and that would interfere with so many lifestyle preferences.
I will check back to see if anyone has scientifically reproducible evidence - a fundamental part of the scientific method - that Darwin's evolution is possible. For what it's worth, I have a degree in Physics, have an enduring love of science, and trust the science of evolutionists as much as I trust that of global-warmists or anything said by government. Let the name-calling begin.
TWSceptic, lets hear your creation debunking and any scientifically reproducible evidence you have for evolution....ANY AT ALL.
great resource-In the Beginning: Compelling Evidence for the Creation and the Flood. (Walt Brown).
I suggest you read: The God Delusion by Richard Dawkins. There you will find many of the answers you seek...BTW, you said: "I prefer the God of the Bible, since there is no scientific evidence to refute the Bible's story of the origin of life on Earth." are you joking?
Why don't you provide some?
After reading TGD, read the rebuttal True Reason: Christian Responses to the Challenge of Atheism. It the rebuttal written by various scholars, Dawkins, Harris and such are shown that they do not have a basic understanding of philosophy, logic and reason. One writer even says Dawkins would fail an introductory philosophy course.
"DNA is far too complex to have 'evolved'."
If that were the case then we wouldn't be seeing any genetic mutations/changes now, would we?
Sorry, but your statement is a BIG FAIL.
Everytime I see this guy I'm more reminded of The Thing from Fantastic Four.
You're actually right!
Everytime I see this guy I'm more reminded of the manager of my garage....when he's sober.
"But in reality, the economy can go downhill and stocks can go up just because of money printing"
Yet, gold and silver can go down because of the invisible hand of the Fed.
Makes me feel like cavity search.
You said SACK.
Tyler,
My expectation is Germany will exit the EU before Greece .... in line with a number of the articles you have posted over the last few months.
At that point, the euro becomes toilet paper, the new deutsche mark becomes the target of the ChairSatan and we get to disasters of Biblical proportions.
As a sidebar, through an unexpected pantsing incident, it will be revealed that Paul Krugman does not have a dick.
barliman
But there will be 1 member in EU at the end -> GERMANY. They will have no choice but to seize all other countries to meet ECB obligations.
That's a very interesting angle. Everyone keeps thinking the weakest countries will leave the Euro--the irony is that if the strongest leave, it's screwed.
Talk about taking your ball back and not playing.
Not before they devalue the crap out of the Euro apparently.
BUT... is Germany really the strongest? Seems that they've got a pretty big rock to carry. Their exports are going to be crushed. And no energy?
Germany's economy is very shallow. Greece, well... they have olives, right?
Krugman no dick???
I was thinking more along the lines of no brain
... or paper mache balls ...
Bernanke just said exactly what I said he would say a month ago, that he is now increasing loans, this to Private Dealers, who will run the money around the market and this will increase the volacity of the currencie and decrease the value a la price. This is you QE. Wake up everyone, it's happening.
They don't need QE in the form you know it. They are flush with cash. Now they will make loans after fractionally reserving the dollars. This will create the appearance of recovery in corporate equity, which is the only important factor in the economy, because corporations are the economy; Krugman said so in his Nobel Prize speech.
Pretty lame result then if this is presently 'max QE' going on out there.
I never wrote this is max QE. What I wrote is tht Bernanke's next step is to lend money by using fractional reserve lending. I have been writing about this as the end result for years, and I wrote about it often in detail recently.
Fractional reserve lending to whom, youre predicting a flurry of loan activity is about to take place? I dont see that at all. No one can take out a loan already, how the hell do broke people go about taking loans?. No one wants to give a loan, no one wants to take a loan.
You are correct. A loan requires two willing parties.
But the Fed can still lend to the Treasury, at whatever fraction they want. And I'm guessing that's what will continue to happen. That's the theory, after all: the government picks up the credit expansion when the private sector falters.
The assumption is that credit (or rather, debt) must always expand. Such is the messed up world we live in.
The Fed will stuff the PDs books full, and they will use the cash to play the markets. The retail side is out of the picture; it is corporations (Central Banks) loaning to corporations.
So Private Dealers can play the market? i.e. stocks, commodities, etc.
JPM, etc, yes. Bernanke is not referring to loaning $$ for people to by mortgages, he is refering to loaning $$ so the PDs can buy MBS.
'Its all about 'free money' to banks so they can 'play the markets'....lol I got to call BS this is ridiculous. People seem to be totaly blind to the big picture. Its all about monetizing the debt, which is now done. Next you'll see game over moves.
I dont think it will continue to happen, because now theres no reason for it to happen since the FED already owns all stocks and bonds. Its game over next.
They are short too. It may be simple but I am afraid you are over simplifying it. The job is not to buy stocks, it is to manage the market. Think like a bankster, SheepDog. The $$ will be made by front running the market in all directions.
Its actually way simpler than even that, the FED set out to monetize the debt in 2008, that is done now as per ZH article from yesterday 'FED now owns all stocks/bonds' so no reason to keep it going or manage a market at all. The bankers are done, thats all...people will see for themselves real soon.
They are not done. They will make loans to PDs so the PDs buy MBS etc.
You dont get it man, sorry. 'They'll keep doing this, they'll keep doing that'...just gibberish you know no such thing at all.
The FED has monetized the debt and its game over, everyone will soon see for themselves while they try to front-run a bunch of BS group-think like Bernank just continues to dole out free money goodies to banks can 'play the markets'...thats just insane.
They are not done. They will make loans to PDs so the PDs buy MBS etc.
Do you have a link? Thanks.
http://lhmarketwatch.blogspot.com/
Are you guys factoring in the expiration of Bush Tax cuts next year. My accountant is already telling me to prepare. This market will rocket into the elections and dump back to 666 to lock in the lower cap gains tax. QE or no QE. Last chance probably in our lifetime to lock in low cap gains. Smoke 'em while you got 'em.
Oh well I'd definitely trade on your accountants market insight for sure.
Most people, especially the Sheeple, have no idea of the Tax Tsunami that is going to hit on January 1, 2013.
And it is sheeple who are going to get sheared the most.
Obama spent around 100 MILLION DOLLARS in 2008 on ads claiming john McCain was going to tax your healthcare. Those taxes start on January 1st, courtesy of Obama and the Democrat Congress.
Get your money out while you can, folks.
Yes and no one realizes that plan FORCES people by law to plunk down for mandatory health care premiums, averaging about $1,000 a month. How do min wage part time workers pay for it?
Yup, yup! The Revolution will not be televised. The Matrix is alive and well in the eyes of The Elite's.
"How do min wage part time workers pay for it?"
You'll subsidize them. Happy now?
LOL, you can dream on! Maybe YOU will pay more taxes, but I pay NONE! Fuckin suckers man, think theyre out of the 'matrix' really only dreaming they are.
I question that. Have a friend (uninsurable) that could only get ins. thru Obama care in TX. Premiums started @ $400, then, get this, were reduced to $306.
There will be NO Tax Tsunami on Jan 1, 2013. Most of the shit due to take effect will be repealed or extended.
Sure, more normalcy bias.
I agree EPS. Which ever candidate stands up and says 'NO NEW TAXES, CROSS MY HEART AND HOPE TO DIE' wins the election. Period. It will be done at the 11th hour, but it WILL be done.
Of course, all that does is bring the real day of debt tsunami reckoning all that much closer, buy hey, we're Americans ... and Americans have trouble thinking past next month's credit card bills.
We need a good crash to teach the financial markets that there is still something called "risk", despite the Fed's endless money-printing! Then reality returns! What a new concept!
There is going to be a crash either way. You don't need QE3 to trigger it. It will come and then Benocide can make it 10 times worse with QE3.
"The Federal Reserve Bank of Europe?"Bill Bonner, who spends a lot more time in France than I do, has this take on Francois Hollande, who was just elected to the French presidency:
This is the first I have heard of this being Hollande's plan, but it sure does sound like socialist thinking.
If this is what Hollande will attempt to promote, then stop the break up of the eurozone, it's going to be one big printing fest until price inflation gets really out of control."
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2012/05/federal-reserve-bank-of-eur...
This sounds like the plan to me.
So for a crash in order of magnitude of 1987 to come sometime between now and the end of June, Operation Titty-Twist will have to end and traders will have to front-run that reality. The question I have is when and what trading algo willl be the first to initiate the momos?
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Old Ponytail really knows how to be a T.V. personality........colorful, controversial, provocative. But it doesn't make him, or Donald Trump, or Rush Limbaugh, or the other media darlings right. I'll take Tyler's analysis, despite the 150 word opening sentences, over Faber's sound bites.
Fabrer's soundbites make me giggle and smile. The news commentators, I believe, have a hard time discerning what the hell he is saying because of normalcy bias, as well because of his accent. I am surprised they let him on quite frankly.
Speaking of letting him on, where the hell has Kyle Bass been these days?
best lines
"They always talk about austerity being bad but if you look at the government expenditures of the EU, in 2000, it was 44% of GDP. Since then, it has grown by 76% under the influence of the Keynesian clowns and now it is 49% of GDP. That is the problem of Europe -- too much government spending and lack of fiscal discipline."
Ow for f*ck's sake Marc.
As much as I enjoy his tirades in that heavy Swiss accent of his, he's been predicting this stock market crash fata morgana for ever and a day, only to later on declare that he had underestimated the amount of intervention dished out by the world's CBs
Let it f*cking happen already or STFU Marc!
one of the biggset crashes in the history of the world happened 4 years ago? what are you talking about? he is simply saying that nothing has been fixed never calls a date just says we are set up for something huge which is a fact. did someone make you click the play button?
Like predicting an exact date is that easy.
It's only for those who were alive during that time such as myself.
The rest of the people cannot make a connection because they were either in Diapers or not yet born in 1987.
Man, that was a decade to remember.
The house of cards is going to come down rather quick. It is my hope to keep stacking against that day.
He's right and it makes 100% sense.
And that's why I think it won't happen this year!
Right, not 'this year', everyones got that all figured out...its always at least 12 months off or so before anything bad can happen. Cognitive dissonance alive and well.
it could happen as early as Q2-Q4 2012. Trillions of Dollars of interest rate swap derivatives held by foreign and domestic banks will be impacted by abrupt changes in the Eurodollars as we progress through 2013 and that could be a huge catalyst.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7_rz5Yhoeo&feature=plcp
1PM. It's actually time to buy.
Dear Mr. Faber, Thank you for not wearing your pink tie again.
I wish i had a crystal ball too...
living in the 90s in Japan; we will have many mini crashes; and bank consolidations. The difference between America and Japan is America is the end; Japan was the start.
"the public has been brainwashed that the breakup of the euro would be a complete disaster when in fact, it may be the solution."
brilliant !
The anchor is completely incredulous "A Crash?????". 2008 is like, so totally ancient history to her.
A CRASH? Well, how can that be! Market crash thingies are SO 2000 and late, we dont have those anymore, Bernank fixed it! 'New Normal' and whatnot.
I think they compared it to the 1987 crash, so she might be clueless there.
He looks annoyed in this interview. And I like her eyeshadow/lipstick/shirt combo.
Personally, I don't listen too much anymore as I am not investing a great deal and I am not trying to time the market. I just keep my head out of the sand, continue to put PMs away and stay alert. No one person knows when the poo hits the blades. Gotta keep on keepin' on, allowing for the occasional rant, of course.
Bernanke: "Even worthy borrowers can't get mortgages"
So why do you give TBTF banks all this cash, Helicopter Ben? Methinks you are hiding something.....or are just completely fucking dumb.
http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/10/11639685-bernanke-even-worthy-borrowers-cant-get-mortgages?lite?ocid=twitter
Monetized the debt.
My business barely felt the 1987 crash. But so far, 2012 is one for the record book. May be a company killer if it continues and it looks like it may.
From 2002...
Pro-Europe Marc Faber vs Euro-sceptic Jim Rogers...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izv0d_yOk9M
Clowns > Muppets
Faber has been telling you to buy Gold equities and miners. Let's put it this way. I'm glad I bought some Gold. It's white metal for me thank you.
Here's my model: http://www.quacera.com/portals/22792/flash/universe.swf
Gold's up a buck fifty.
Silver itching to try new lows. The bounce in the market doesn't appear to have legs, then again maybe people are looking for productive assets...
Investors in the paper gold market use gold as a last resort asset to sell when their prime investments lose. Stock markets go down, gold goes down with it, and bond prices increase. The Federal Reserve has not expanded it's balance sheet with Operation Twist, so that changes perspective. It's going to be a buyers market for gold. Not much gain to be expected. Those who want to get into the market should see this as a opportunity, or to acquire more of it. The situation in europe impacts the metal trade as well as it does US stocks.
but what will they do with those buildings in Brussels and Strasbourg?
housing for the homeless central bankers?
Forget Brusels ! Strasbourg is going to be the capitol of Europe. A wonderful, cultivated city.
Brussels is Nato, Anglo Saxon influenced. But Strasbourg is completely diferent. Not like beer and fries which is the reason why the Brits like Brussels so much. Brussels is absolute province.
Strasbourg a really nice place, close to Basel (BIS) and not far from Frankfurt (ECB) and just 4 hours by car to Milano the Italian commercial center. And Germany is just over the Rhine. There is the region of Baden-Wuerttemberg whichs accounts for more than 60 % of all patents issued in Germany. Lots of industrial giants along the Rhine within a few 100 km around Strasbourg like Roche, Novartis, Daimler Benz, BASF, SAP, Audi, Porsche, etc plus a very huge number of medium size high tech firms
Robert Rubin warns of "major duress"
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2012/05/hot-robert-rubin-warns-of-m...
'Cause he is one of the primary people that knowingly created it? Seriously, when was this dude not in the white house, K-Street, or GS? People like Corzine, Mozillo, even Immelt are psychopaths, so their roles can be rationalized. Rubin is not, so we must be close to TSHTF.
btw, didn't Faber voice Burgermeister Meisterburger? :)
http://christmas-specials.wikia.com/wiki/Burgermeister_Meisterburger
I like Faber. I subscribe to Faber....but, of late, he is getting a little Buffettized....too much media attention and adulation. He's hedging so much, could go up, could go down..... His market commentaries are increasingly getting to be 95% fluff and stuff other people think that he sends along. The concrete advice is getting hard to come by in his monthly letters. You almost hear more of that (free) on Bloomberg, etc.
I sent him this, just to let him know what the paying customers are thinking.
If Faber is more careful in his predictions, it could be because we live in an environment where all options are bad.
This leaves us with what? Guns and cattle?
I think Dmitry Orlov is at least partially right in saying, "Don't stoke the fires of economic progress and prosperity. Pull your money out of the financial markets. Put your savings into durable objects of lasting value. Pull wealth out of circulation. Eliminate debt and reduce your dependence on steady income."
The game will soon be over. The machine will reset and reboot.
Holy Shit, is that Jonah Hill? I did't know he worked for UBS.