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March Durable Good Implode, Worse Than Lowest Wall Street Forecast And Biggest Drop Since January 2009

Tyler Durden's picture




 

So much for a moderate decline in the economy. As we warned back in February when we noted that the non-seasonally unadjusted collapse in durable goods was historic, now that the aftereffect of a record warm winter is fully gone, the March durable goods data comes in and it was a complete disaster: instead of dropping modestly by 1.7% as the consensus expected, the March actual print was a massive 4.2% decline, worse than the worst Wall Street forecast, or the most since January 2009! And it was not only airplanes as many were expecting (despite Boeing's just announced epic sales): the ex-transportation number was down 1.1%, on expectations of a 0.5% gain; even worse, capital goods new orders slid 0.8% on expectations of a 1% gain. And as usual inventories hit another record high. Overall, a horrendous print which confirms that the entire myth of a recovery in Q1 was warm weather driven, and that about 1% of the 2.5% or so consensus GDP was due to the weather. Expect the downward GDP revisions to come any second. But don't expect the market to react to this news at all: after all if anything, this simply makes NEW QE/LTRO more likely and is to be cheered by all habitual gamblers.

Worse than lowest estimate ( a 2 sigma miss)...

and Durables Goods Change has missed expectations 3 months in a row to its worst since Jan 09...

From the report:

New Orders:

 

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March decreased $8.8 billion or 4.2 percent to $202.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 1.9 percent February increase.

 

Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.6 percent.

 

 

Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, had the largest decrease, $7.1 billion or 12.5 percent to $49.7 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased $7.7 billion.

 

Shipments

 

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March, up three of the last four months, increased $2.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $208.8 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent February decrease.

 

Machinery, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $2.0 billion or 6.5 percent to $32.9 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 3.1 percent February increase.

 

Inventories

 

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in March, up twenty-seven consecutive months, increased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $375.1 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis and followed a 0.3 percent February increase.

 

Transportation equipment, also up twenty-seven consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $118.0 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis.

Finally, February was also worse than previously reported:

Revised February Data

 

Revised seasonally adjusted February figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $467.5 billion (revised from $468.4 billion); shipments, $462.9 billion (revised from $462.6 billion); unfilled orders, $930.1 billion (revised from $931.1 billion); and total inventories, $616.7 billion (revised from $616.8 billion).

Visually:

 

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Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:50 | 2372909 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

apparently iGadgets are not durable

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:53 | 2372917 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Collapse on!  We will be red at the open!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:56 | 2372925 resurger
resurger's picture

only the DOW

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:58 | 2372933 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

2012 will make 2009 look like 1925.

 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:08 | 2372972 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I'm betting aapl doesn't hold 600 today. It's volume will be huge but mostly of the 'get outta Dodge type'. Guesses on where it closes? We keep seeing that all the other negativities are till there

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:41 | 2373092 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

PPT to the rescue!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 10:26 | 2373273 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

April 25, 2012

LONDON (MarketWatch)—Most European stocks markets extended a rise for a second day on Wednesday, with Spanish banks driving gains after solid BBVA SA results, while surprisingly strong earnings from Apple Inc. boosted tech stocks.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index /quotes/zigman/2380150 XX:SXXP +0.98% added 0.8% to 256.40.

"There are still negatives out there with austerity measures and sovereign debt, but I don’t see markets sell off a lot from here," said Colin McLean, managing director at SVM Asset Management.

"Companies’ balance sheets look good and they are in better shape than most countries," he added. "Fund managers have a lot of cash to invest and as a lot of stocks continue to trend upwards, investors realize they are missing out on growth."

 

 

 

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europe-stocks-jump-with-banks-in-the-lead-2012-04-25?link=MW_latest_news   

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:56 | 2372924 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

Wake up people!  Planet X explains everything that is going on!  Think about it......

- on the verge of martial law

- FEMA camps

- US debt that no one seems to care about

- Chinese ghost cities

- all ambassadors recalled last year

- end of shuttle missions

- mass resignations

- more earthquakes, volcanoes, animal die offs, fireballs, sinkholes, stretch zone noises

- Denver bunker

- CIA and NSA relocating to Colorado and Utah

WAKE THE F#CK UP!

Russian news talks about Planet X:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=aVlhOAiJZ5U

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:59 | 2372940 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Call Harry Stamper & quit bothering me...

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:00 | 2372942 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

- end of shuttle missions

 

Crap.....that is serious! How are we going to shuttle around now?

 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:35 | 2373060 Capt Tripps
Capt Tripps's picture

Another contender for poster-boy of my blossoming "Bring Back the Captcha!" movement...

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:41 | 2373094 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Well there's that, or maybe - just maybe, TPTB happen to be well aware that paper money doesn't last, and collapses every time. So they are preparing, right? Are you prepared?

Of course it could be some science fiction thing, though. However that would be convenient, wouldn't it? A mystery planet causing an earth disaster - RIGHT when the fiat money ponzi scheme implodes? That would be something.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:45 | 2373113 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

>>" Planet X explains everything that is going on!"<<

ROTFLMAO!! There is no "Planet X" and this has been fully debunked, BUT...

What if everything that you listed is not proof of "Planet X" (a diversion by TPTB, IMO) but rather these events singal that some other global catastrophe TPTB know of (inevitable global financial collapse/global civil unrest/WWIII) is imminent?

Like a good friend of mine has been saying for a while now, "Everyone will be wishing that the Mayans were right"

It's going to be ugly... far worse than anyone imagines or cares to think about. Ignorance is truly bliss... 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 10:50 | 2373372 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Excellent point.Exactly what i fear.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:02 | 2372946 max bucket
max bucket's picture

they have to last more than 3 years to be classified as durable

guess that counts out igadgets

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:52 | 2372911 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Beats Estimates Bitchez....

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:52 | 2372915 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

iRecovery mixed with a side of iGREEN SHOOTS...

Sorry Ben... you can't eat gold but you can preserve your wealth and prepare for the inevitable collapse you and your cronies are also preparing for.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:57 | 2372928 resurger
resurger's picture

buy iPhone instead of gold & silver

/fat sarc

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:59 | 2372936 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

As an aside, 93,000 Californians will lose unemployment in less than 3 weeks... Good thing Apple has all that cash, they will need it to feed the hungry animals!!

http://economy.ocregister.com/2012/04/24/90000-californians-to-lose-unemployment-pay-in-may/107667/

RECOVERY AWAITS!!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:13 | 2372991 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

iPhones don't stack well in the vault.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:57 | 2372916 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Bullish! (Yay ~ more money printing)

~~~

West Side Story tune:

"When you're an inkJET you're a Jet all the way...

From yourt first QE2, till your last dying day"!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:57 | 2372931 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Go for it Ben, lets see $6 gas bring it on bitch.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:54 | 2372918 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Who needs durable goods when we've got iGadgets and Siri? 

Siri, please give me directions back to sanity! I'm sorry sir, no such location seems to exist....

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:57 | 2372929 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Me:  Siri, tell me when its all going to carsh?

 

Siri:  "it's all ready carshed, its just nobody wants to believe it"

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:01 | 2372951 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

 

 

Siri, if I bury you will you grow into food or maintain your value indefinitely?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 11:00 | 2373403 Lord Blankcheck
Lord Blankcheck's picture

"I'm not that kind of girl" SIRI

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:54 | 2372920 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture
But, but some a-hole on Yahoo Finance just wrote the headline:

 

Fed Will Act to Boost the Economy, Just Not Today..... I guess he has advance information...... and the algos need something to feed on...and they put up this headline... as if it's gospel from the FOMC meeting- F-ing unbelievable.

 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:59 | 2372934 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Key word breakfast for the algobots.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:05 | 2372959 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

OH YEAH!! well I got you beat! Some dumb shit on Bloomberg wrote "Hints of Housing Bottom Seen in U.S..."

LMAO!! Get those retail suckers to buy BUY BUY!!! 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:22 | 2373019 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Everything bottoms out eventually, even the Titanic stopped sinking and 'found a bottom'.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 10:59 | 2373400 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Yes, like Japan....everyone assumes that when a "bottom is found" that means things go up.....well, not always.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 12:52 | 2373888 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Yes, but it is 2.5 miles below sea level, with pressure around 6,000 lbs per square inch.  

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:07 | 2372965 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Yahoo Finance. Funny

Kind of like Google Privacy

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:58 | 2372922 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

This ponzi and it's loyal algobots have amazing power.  Why, why I say, are futures still green?  Nothing but bad economic data.

 

Rome burns, and AAPL/QE followers fiddle.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:57 | 2372930 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Moldilocks Economy.  Bullish for mold.  Er, gold.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:59 | 2372937 Zola
Zola's picture

What a joke this market has become when money printing and utter corruption are the only two "fundamentals" out there...

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:09 | 2372977 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Who puts out this data ?  This is preposterous!  I hope the SEC sues them.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:59 | 2372938 crawl
crawl's picture

This scheme in the markets is just nuts. If the numbers are good, then the economy is recovering. If there is a miss, then the Fed will intervene with more liquidity.

Kinda like the market saying heads, I win, tails, you lose.

It is deadly to short this insane market.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 10:06 | 2373213 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Yeah, but the bottom line is that the bottom 80% in the US are getting steadily poorer. The middle class is shrinking and the lower classes are getting squeezed. Durable orders are down because 80% of the population can no longer afford them or at best have to buy less of them. That is the reality, and QE3-QE999 isn't going to change that. In fact, additional QE will accelerate the decline of that 80% because of commodity inflation.

QE creates the short-term illusion of wealth, but that short-term gets shorter and shorter.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 10:52 | 2373381 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Elvisdog,make it bottom 95%.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:00 | 2372943 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Doable Girls

 

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_2

Industrial Demand for electricity down 1.8% for Jan 2012 vs Jan 2011

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:02 | 2372953 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Probably due to iGadget 'power save' feature.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:03 | 2372947 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sorry I was busy pouring syrup on my iPhone....whats this about an 'iEconomy'?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:01 | 2372948 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

AAPL to 666

SPX to 1444

THAT is the economy.  

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:01 | 2372949 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Apparently the eCONomy is playing by the Fedz playbook but market partiicipants are not....a Pavlovian and conditioned market can only act the way it is told.

On the brighter side it will be obsolutely hillarious watching the Fedz bitch slap the market down so it can proceed with its final QE that works, yes, there will be more QEs but the adverse effects of "debt is money" will finally come home to roost in mid to late 2013 and the S&P will enjoy her free fall from 1600 to true value around 900.

Enjoy the next 12 months and stackem if you gotem!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:09 | 2372964 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The pieces dont seem to fit...theyre going to do all this 'bitch slap equities down carefully to deliver QE and ramp equities again but not quite yet' sometime later? All I see is a paranoid Wall St that immediately recovers any loss in total panic. Well good luck coasting along with $4 gas, that IS real and right now and its tanking the real economy out here. People are going to be real pissed by fall, no ones ever pulled off an election with gas prices hovering at all time highs. QE my ass, I say theyve got nothin.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:08 | 2372950 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

.

 

BAD MARKETING I TELL YA!!

If they would just use google adds that said: BUY ONE JUMBOJET, GET A IPAD FOR FREE!

BUY 2 GET A FREE PRELOADED ITUNES CARD VALUED AT 500$!

sales would be booming...

BOOMING I TELL YA!!

 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:04 | 2372954 Old Poor Richard
Old Poor Richard's picture

I'll have a double dip. 

Double dip. 

Me too, double dip. 

Make mine a double. 

I'll have a double dip with a twist of lemon. 

Me too, twist of lemon. 

I'll have a twist also.

I'll have what they're having.  Thanks.

This round's on me, <holds up phone to be scanned> just got an iPayday loan to hold me over!

Bravo.

Well played, sir.

Next round is on my phone, ha ha, I mean next round is on me.

 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:02 | 2372955 youngman
youngman's picture

Well Britain is down too....and we can assume the rest of Europe is not going to be spending to much......China...???? ...Brasil is slowing.....if the Arab Sring Islamist get control...they will not allow you  to spend....it should mean slowing....but but but....debts and expenses keep on growing....and growing..and growing....

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:05 | 2372961 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Benovolent Ben will make evrything right later today.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:16 | 2373000 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ben will say 'I've got this shit this time, bitches!' and equities will rejoice yadda yadda....

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:07 | 2372966 Metalredneck
Metalredneck's picture

The  "NEW" market is not effected by retail numbers anymore.  All Skynet, all the time.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:08 | 2372969 BLACK_DOG
BLACK_DOG's picture

"Is this the day? Is this the beginning of the end? There is no time to wonder. No time to ask why is it happening, why is it finally happening. There is time only for fear, for the piercing pain of panic. Do we pray? Or do we merely run now and pray later? Will there be a later? Or is this the day?"

from The Outer Limits 9/30/1963

 
Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:09 | 2372979 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Quick, Ben Bernane and the Federal Reserve doves start more QE. QE solves everything. In the mean inflation is running at a good clip. Go out to eat and you notice the price increases. That hamburger that used to cost $3.96 is now $5.50. All across the board companies are jacking up prices.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:10 | 2372981 Deep79
Deep79's picture

At this point what is QE3 really going to do but boost asset prices, and een that i doubt will be as big a bounce as people are expecting. It seems to me each dose of QE makes the real economy worse and worse.</p><p>If they launch QE3 soon, really will it do anything. I think even the FED knows it will probably buy us 2-4 months. But we will add another 1-2 trillion for 2-4 months time.</p><p>And I am even doubting the "bounce" we will get from QE3, ya might be 10-15%, but a 30%+ move like all other QE's, i just dont see it

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:14 | 2372995 nick howdy
nick howdy's picture

It will make Wall Street feel better and really, what else matters..

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:19 | 2373013 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right so they'll 'bitch slap' equities down 10-15%, then add $2 trillion and get 10-15% back...except now gas will be $5 at least. Yea I dont buy any of it I think theyre just trying to glide as long as possible on a wing and a prayer. I call BS on the whole 'QE plan carved in stone' that everyone has concluded is a given.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:11 | 2372984 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Who forgot to put in their Boeing order (to be canceled at a future date)?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:30 | 2373042 youngman
youngman's picture

Wait until the HFT´s computers hit the order desk of Boeing.....millions of orders in a second only to be cancelled

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:13 | 2372989 nick howdy
nick howdy's picture

You mean the debt laden American populace won't buy more cheap shit from China!  Oh No...Senator Howdy says; Let's pass a law to "encourage you to buy"..It worked for Health insurance didn't it?..

We'll make it so you can claim your cost as a tax credit that will go into your new US government savings account for retirement..

Have we got a deal?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:13 | 2372990 bshirley1968
bshirley1968's picture

Just Monday, European markets were going to hell and now all of a sudden (even though the UK is going into recession) all is fine........just two days later?  Everyone has to see this is nothing more than banks buying the markets with central bank's money to keep them alive as long as possible.  NOTHING in the headlines suggest we should be going higher or that smart money would buy at these levels.  There's Apple and then there's ........nothing!

Pure manipulation.  There was a time about 10 years ago I would have said market is 40-50% manipulated.  Now I say it is 80-90%.

Thing is banks can make themselves look good on paper with all the free interest they are getting from the gov loans and the profits they make pumping their own stock purchases higher.  This will drag out for a while yet until John Q gets fed up and deals with it.  Looking at Europe, that may take a while.  They are further down that road than we are and their people are taking it fairly well.   Course they are use to being serfs and having someone's boot on their neck.  Still waiting for a catalyst to take down this house of cards so we can get back to reality.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:16 | 2373003 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Yes and notice dipshit Ben is all over the news with the green curtain behind him. As always.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:19 | 2373010 yogibear
yogibear's picture

> green curtain behind him.....

Like the Wizard of OZ. 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:45 | 2373114 DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

You mean Lizard Of Oz

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:19 | 2373008 TheInfoman
TheInfoman's picture

I think the Dow will open UP, since oil is DOWN.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:24 | 2373021 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oil is down, yet up? How does that work?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:28 | 2373024 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

The clown in chief's economic record of failure is becoming more and more odvious even to the democrats. Expect Bernanke and the gang of UNELECTED morons to loosen the spigot to juice this pathetic mess one more time in hopes of fooling the public once again.  The media doesnt need to be fooled, they publish whatever will re-elect thier comrad..

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:40 | 2373085 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No ones fooled at the gas pump or grocery store, thats for sure. Now let Bernank 'juice it' again and we've got $6 gas and groceries no one can afford any longer. No one gives a shit about stocks. And my bet is on the bankers wanting Romney in there to place the blame on 'white republican'...I almost guarantee that one. 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:30 | 2373037 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

 

"Manufacturers Regain Swagger With Rosy Earnings"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230397810457736416290556361...

But the WSJ said...

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:40 | 2373093 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh theyre 'swaggering' now...yea sure.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:29 | 2373038 cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

 

An update on TARGET2

http://www.cnhedge.com/thread-4003-1-1.html

http://www.jinrongbaike.com/

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:34 | 2373046 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Gold is a durable good....it lasts more than 3 years !  SARC/ON    Monedas  2012   Comedy Jihad Humour Is Forever  !

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:37 | 2373067 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

You make it sound as though this was relevant. Go buy an iPad and eat it ... everything else in irrelevant in Obama's America.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:46 | 2373121 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

And gambling is fun. Obama said you should stop going to Vegas because he wanted to promote the Wall Street casino. The dow is the economy, isn't it?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 10:21 | 2373263 kralizec
kralizec's picture

No such thing as bad news, DOW has a raging hard-on this morning.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 10:37 | 2373326 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

The algos and banksters think the same way.  Good news buy because it is good news.  Bad news buy because when it all craps out, they get bailed out because how could anyone see the crap out coming.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 11:02 | 2373413 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Puzzling.....why is HOG doing so well in this economy? This is actually a serious question....

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 11:23 | 2373502 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

The Fed has no choice.  Credit is collapsing, and the dollar strengthening.

If they don't inflate the economy will die because the dollar will run and businesses will lack credit and exports.

If they inflate, only good will happen, except to the schlubs.  Cost of living will impoverish the schlubs, while business will be able to export, and make money on overseas business.  Instead of $75 M overseas, AAPL will have $150M overseas.  Inflation will make debt disappear.  Instead of playing with the interest rate curve, the Fed should simply buy all new issued short end Ts from the treasury, and let the curve find its own way. Oops, except the 30 year will run away on inflation expectation.  Bad news for Obama, though since gas during summer will be $5/gal.  Cannot have that.  Maybe the Fed can short the crap out of WTIC futures and buy them back after the election.  Hmmm. Does seem like a good idea there.

No hope.  Unless you are Goldman Sachs.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 12:44 | 2373834 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Unexpected /boggle

Thanks for putting PM's on sale again guys.

Pretty soon this WILL blow up in their faces and I'll have a stack Midas could envy.

Bring it on Blythe et al. I dare you to crush 'em more.

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