March Durable Good Implode, Worse Than Lowest Wall Street Forecast And Biggest Drop Since January 2009

Tyler Durden's picture

So much for a moderate decline in the economy. As we warned back in February when we noted that the non-seasonally unadjusted collapse in durable goods was historic, now that the aftereffect of a record warm winter is fully gone, the March durable goods data comes in and it was a complete disaster: instead of dropping modestly by 1.7% as the consensus expected, the March actual print was a massive 4.2% decline, worse than the worst Wall Street forecast, or the most since January 2009! And it was not only airplanes as many were expecting (despite Boeing's just announced epic sales): the ex-transportation number was down 1.1%, on expectations of a 0.5% gain; even worse, capital goods new orders slid 0.8% on expectations of a 1% gain. And as usual inventories hit another record high. Overall, a horrendous print which confirms that the entire myth of a recovery in Q1 was warm weather driven, and that about 1% of the 2.5% or so consensus GDP was due to the weather. Expect the downward GDP revisions to come any second. But don't expect the market to react to this news at all: after all if anything, this simply makes NEW QE/LTRO more likely and is to be cheered by all habitual gamblers.

Worse than lowest estimate ( a 2 sigma miss)...

and Durables Goods Change has missed expectations 3 months in a row to its worst since Jan 09...

From the report:

New Orders:


New orders for manufactured durable goods in March decreased $8.8 billion or 4.2 percent to $202.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 1.9 percent February increase.


Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.6 percent.



Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, had the largest decrease, $7.1 billion or 12.5 percent to $49.7 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased $7.7 billion.




Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March, up three of the last four months, increased $2.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $208.8 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent February decrease.


Machinery, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $2.0 billion or 6.5 percent to $32.9 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 3.1 percent February increase.




Inventories of manufactured durable goods in March, up twenty-seven consecutive months, increased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $375.1 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis and followed a 0.3 percent February increase.


Transportation equipment, also up twenty-seven consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $118.0 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis.

Finally, February was also worse than previously reported:

Revised February Data


Revised seasonally adjusted February figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $467.5 billion (revised from $468.4 billion); shipments, $462.9 billion (revised from $462.6 billion); unfilled orders, $930.1 billion (revised from $931.1 billion); and total inventories, $616.7 billion (revised from $616.8 billion).


Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
spastic_colon's picture

apparently iGadgets are not durable

maxmad's picture

Collapse on!  We will be red at the open!

GetZeeGold's picture



2012 will make 2009 look like 1925.


DeadFred's picture

I'm betting aapl doesn't hold 600 today. It's volume will be huge but mostly of the 'get outta Dodge type'. Guesses on where it closes? We keep seeing that all the other negativities are till there

Randall Cabot's picture

April 25, 2012

LONDON (MarketWatch)—Most European stocks markets extended a rise for a second day on Wednesday, with Spanish banks driving gains after solid BBVA SA results, while surprisingly strong earnings from Apple Inc. boosted tech stocks.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index /quotes/zigman/2380150 XX:SXXP +0.98% added 0.8% to 256.40.

"There are still negatives out there with austerity measures and sovereign debt, but I don’t see markets sell off a lot from here," said Colin McLean, managing director at SVM Asset Management.

"Companies’ balance sheets look good and they are in better shape than most countries," he added. "Fund managers have a lot of cash to invest and as a lot of stocks continue to trend upwards, investors realize they are missing out on growth."


mrgneiss's picture

Wake up people!  Planet X explains everything that is going on!  Think about it......

- on the verge of martial law

- FEMA camps

- US debt that no one seems to care about

- Chinese ghost cities

- all ambassadors recalled last year

- end of shuttle missions

- mass resignations

- more earthquakes, volcanoes, animal die offs, fireballs, sinkholes, stretch zone noises

- Denver bunker

- CIA and NSA relocating to Colorado and Utah


Russian news talks about Planet X:

francis_sawyer's picture

Call Harry Stamper & quit bothering me...

GetZeeGold's picture



- end of shuttle missions


Crap.....that is serious! How are we going to shuttle around now?


Capt Tripps's picture

Another contender for poster-boy of my blossoming "Bring Back the Captcha!" movement...

Seize Mars's picture

Well there's that, or maybe - just maybe, TPTB happen to be well aware that paper money doesn't last, and collapses every time. So they are preparing, right? Are you prepared?

Of course it could be some science fiction thing, though. However that would be convenient, wouldn't it? A mystery planet causing an earth disaster - RIGHT when the fiat money ponzi scheme implodes? That would be something.

jus_lite_reading's picture

>>" Planet X explains everything that is going on!"<<

ROTFLMAO!! There is no "Planet X" and this has been fully debunked, BUT...

What if everything that you listed is not proof of "Planet X" (a diversion by TPTB, IMO) but rather these events singal that some other global catastrophe TPTB know of (inevitable global financial collapse/global civil unrest/WWIII) is imminent?

Like a good friend of mine has been saying for a while now, "Everyone will be wishing that the Mayans were right"

It's going to be ugly... far worse than anyone imagines or cares to think about. Ignorance is truly bliss... 

Iwanttoknow's picture

Excellent point.Exactly what i fear.

max bucket's picture

they have to last more than 3 years to be classified as durable

guess that counts out igadgets

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Beats Estimates Bitchez....

jus_lite_reading's picture

iRecovery mixed with a side of iGREEN SHOOTS...

Sorry Ben... you can't eat gold but you can preserve your wealth and prepare for the inevitable collapse you and your cronies are also preparing for.

resurger's picture

buy iPhone instead of gold & silver

/fat sarc

jus_lite_reading's picture

As an aside, 93,000 Californians will lose unemployment in less than 3 weeks... Good thing Apple has all that cash, they will need it to feed the hungry animals!!


DeadFred's picture

iPhones don't stack well in the vault.

francis_sawyer's picture

Bullish! (Yay ~ more money printing)


West Side Story tune:

"When you're an inkJET you're a Jet all the way...

From yourt first QE2, till your last dying day"!

SheepDog-One's picture

Go for it Ben, lets see $6 gas bring it on bitch.

SheepDog-One's picture

Who needs durable goods when we've got iGadgets and Siri? 

Siri, please give me directions back to sanity! I'm sorry sir, no such location seems to exist....

maxmad's picture

Me:  Siri, tell me when its all going to carsh?


Siri:  "it's all ready carshed, its just nobody wants to believe it"

Jim in MN's picture



Siri, if I bury you will you grow into food or maintain your value indefinitely?

Lord Blankcheck's picture

"I'm not that kind of girl" SIRI

chinaguy's picture
But, but some a-hole on Yahoo Finance just wrote the headline:


Fed Will Act to Boost the Economy, Just Not Today..... I guess he has advance information...... and the algos need something to feed on...and they put up this headline... as if it's gospel from the FOMC meeting- F-ing unbelievable.


SheepDog-One's picture

Key word breakfast for the algobots.

jus_lite_reading's picture

OH YEAH!! well I got you beat! Some dumb shit on Bloomberg wrote "Hints of Housing Bottom Seen in U.S..."

LMAO!! Get those retail suckers to buy BUY BUY!!! 

SheepDog-One's picture

Everything bottoms out eventually, even the Titanic stopped sinking and 'found a bottom'.

rosiescenario's picture

Yes, like Japan....everyone assumes that when a "bottom is found" that means things go up.....well, not always.

Things that go bump's picture

Yes, but it is 2.5 miles below sea level, with pressure around 6,000 lbs per square inch.  

cossack55's picture

Yahoo Finance. Funny

Kind of like Google Privacy

LongSoupLine's picture



This ponzi and it's loyal algobots have amazing power.  Why, why I say, are futures still green?  Nothing but bad economic data.


Rome burns, and AAPL/QE followers fiddle.

Jim in MN's picture

Moldilocks Economy.  Bullish for mold.  Er, gold.

Zola's picture

What a joke this market has become when money printing and utter corruption are the only two "fundamentals" out there...

scatterbrains's picture

Who puts out this data ?  This is preposterous!  I hope the SEC sues them.

crawl's picture

This scheme in the markets is just nuts. If the numbers are good, then the economy is recovering. If there is a miss, then the Fed will intervene with more liquidity.

Kinda like the market saying heads, I win, tails, you lose.

It is deadly to short this insane market.

ElvisDog's picture

Yeah, but the bottom line is that the bottom 80% in the US are getting steadily poorer. The middle class is shrinking and the lower classes are getting squeezed. Durable orders are down because 80% of the population can no longer afford them or at best have to buy less of them. That is the reality, and QE3-QE999 isn't going to change that. In fact, additional QE will accelerate the decline of that 80% because of commodity inflation.

QE creates the short-term illusion of wealth, but that short-term gets shorter and shorter.

Iwanttoknow's picture

Elvisdog,make it bottom 95%.

Catullus's picture

Doable Girls

Industrial Demand for electricity down 1.8% for Jan 2012 vs Jan 2011

SheepDog-One's picture

Probably due to iGadget 'power save' feature.

SheepDog-One's picture

Sorry I was busy pouring syrup on my iPhone....whats this about an 'iEconomy'?

slaughterer's picture

AAPL to 666

SPX to 1444

THAT is the economy.  

Robslob's picture

Apparently the eCONomy is playing by the Fedz playbook but market partiicipants are not....a Pavlovian and conditioned market can only act the way it is told.

On the brighter side it will be obsolutely hillarious watching the Fedz bitch slap the market down so it can proceed with its final QE that works, yes, there will be more QEs but the adverse effects of "debt is money" will finally come home to roost in mid to late 2013 and the S&P will enjoy her free fall from 1600 to true value around 900.

Enjoy the next 12 months and stackem if you gotem!

SheepDog-One's picture

The pieces dont seem to fit...theyre going to do all this 'bitch slap equities down carefully to deliver QE and ramp equities again but not quite yet' sometime later? All I see is a paranoid Wall St that immediately recovers any loss in total panic. Well good luck coasting along with $4 gas, that IS real and right now and its tanking the real economy out here. People are going to be real pissed by fall, no ones ever pulled off an election with gas prices hovering at all time highs. QE my ass, I say theyve got nothin.

Sudden Debt's picture




If they would just use google adds that said: BUY ONE JUMBOJET, GET A IPAD FOR FREE!


sales would be booming...



Old Poor Richard's picture

I'll have a double dip. 

Double dip. 

Me too, double dip. 

Make mine a double. 

I'll have a double dip with a twist of lemon. 

Me too, twist of lemon. 

I'll have a twist also.

I'll have what they're having.  Thanks.

This round's on me, <holds up phone to be scanned> just got an iPayday loan to hold me over!


Well played, sir.

Next round is on my phone, ha ha, I mean next round is on me.


youngman's picture

Well Britain is down too....and we can assume the rest of Europe is not going to be spending to much......China...???? ...Brasil is slowing.....if the Arab Sring Islamist get control...they will not allow you  to should mean slowing....but but but....debts and expenses keep on growing....and growing..and growing....

Cursive's picture

Benovolent Ben will make evrything right later today.