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March Durable Good Implode, Worse Than Lowest Wall Street Forecast And Biggest Drop Since January 2009
So much for a moderate decline in the economy. As we warned back in February when we noted that the non-seasonally unadjusted collapse in durable goods was historic, now that the aftereffect of a record warm winter is fully gone, the March durable goods data comes in and it was a complete disaster: instead of dropping modestly by 1.7% as the consensus expected, the March actual print was a massive 4.2% decline, worse than the worst Wall Street forecast, or the most since January 2009! And it was not only airplanes as many were expecting (despite Boeing's just announced epic sales): the ex-transportation number was down 1.1%, on expectations of a 0.5% gain; even worse, capital goods new orders slid 0.8% on expectations of a 1% gain. And as usual inventories hit another record high. Overall, a horrendous print which confirms that the entire myth of a recovery in Q1 was warm weather driven, and that about 1% of the 2.5% or so consensus GDP was due to the weather. Expect the downward GDP revisions to come any second. But don't expect the market to react to this news at all: after all if anything, this simply makes NEW QE/LTRO more likely and is to be cheered by all habitual gamblers.
Worse than lowest estimate ( a 2 sigma miss)...
and Durables Goods Change has missed expectations 3 months in a row to its worst since Jan 09...
From the report:
New Orders:
New orders for manufactured durable goods in March decreased $8.8 billion or 4.2 percent to $202.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 1.9 percent February increase.
Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.6 percent.
Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, had the largest decrease, $7.1 billion or 12.5 percent to $49.7 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased $7.7 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March, up three of the last four months, increased $2.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $208.8 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent February decrease.
Machinery, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $2.0 billion or 6.5 percent to $32.9 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 3.1 percent February increase.
Inventories
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in March, up twenty-seven consecutive months, increased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $375.1 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis and followed a 0.3 percent February increase.
Transportation equipment, also up twenty-seven consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $118.0 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis.
Finally, February was also worse than previously reported:
Revised February Data
Revised seasonally adjusted February figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $467.5 billion (revised from $468.4 billion); shipments, $462.9 billion (revised from $462.6 billion); unfilled orders, $930.1 billion (revised from $931.1 billion); and total inventories, $616.7 billion (revised from $616.8 billion).
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apparently iGadgets are not durable
Collapse on! We will be red at the open!
only the DOW
2012 will make 2009 look like 1925.
I'm betting aapl doesn't hold 600 today. It's volume will be huge but mostly of the 'get outta Dodge type'. Guesses on where it closes? We keep seeing that all the other negativities are till there
PPT to the rescue!
April 25, 2012
LONDON (MarketWatch)—Most European stocks markets extended a rise for a second day on Wednesday, with Spanish banks driving gains after solid BBVA SA results, while surprisingly strong earnings from Apple Inc. boosted tech stocks.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index /quotes/zigman/2380150 XX:SXXP +0.98% added 0.8% to 256.40.
"There are still negatives out there with austerity measures and sovereign debt, but I don’t see markets sell off a lot from here," said Colin McLean, managing director at SVM Asset Management.
"Companies’ balance sheets look good and they are in better shape than most countries," he added. "Fund managers have a lot of cash to invest and as a lot of stocks continue to trend upwards, investors realize they are missing out on growth."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europe-stocks-jump-with-banks-in-the-lead-2012-04-25?link=MW_latest_news
Wake up people! Planet X explains everything that is going on! Think about it......
- on the verge of martial law
- FEMA camps
- US debt that no one seems to care about
- Chinese ghost cities
- all ambassadors recalled last year
- end of shuttle missions
- mass resignations
- more earthquakes, volcanoes, animal die offs, fireballs, sinkholes, stretch zone noises
- Denver bunker
- CIA and NSA relocating to Colorado and Utah
WAKE THE F#CK UP!
Russian news talks about Planet X:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=aVlhOAiJZ5U
Call Harry Stamper & quit bothering me...
- end of shuttle missions
Crap.....that is serious! How are we going to shuttle around now?
Another contender for poster-boy of my blossoming "Bring Back the Captcha!" movement...
Well there's that, or maybe - just maybe, TPTB happen to be well aware that paper money doesn't last, and collapses every time. So they are preparing, right? Are you prepared?
Of course it could be some science fiction thing, though. However that would be convenient, wouldn't it? A mystery planet causing an earth disaster - RIGHT when the fiat money ponzi scheme implodes? That would be something.
>>" Planet X explains everything that is going on!"<<
ROTFLMAO!! There is no "Planet X" and this has been fully debunked, BUT...
What if everything that you listed is not proof of "Planet X" (a diversion by TPTB, IMO) but rather these events singal that some other global catastrophe TPTB know of (inevitable global financial collapse/global civil unrest/WWIII) is imminent?
Like a good friend of mine has been saying for a while now, "Everyone will be wishing that the Mayans were right"
It's going to be ugly... far worse than anyone imagines or cares to think about. Ignorance is truly bliss...
Excellent point.Exactly what i fear.
they have to last more than 3 years to be classified as durable
guess that counts out igadgets
Beats Estimates Bitchez....
iRecovery mixed with a side of iGREEN SHOOTS...
Sorry Ben... you can't eat gold but you can preserve your wealth and prepare for the inevitable collapse you and your cronies are also preparing for.
buy iPhone instead of gold & silver
/fat sarc
As an aside, 93,000 Californians will lose unemployment in less than 3 weeks... Good thing Apple has all that cash, they will need it to feed the hungry animals!!
http://economy.ocregister.com/2012/04/24/90000-californians-to-lose-unemployment-pay-in-may/107667/
RECOVERY AWAITS!!
iPhones don't stack well in the vault.
Bullish! (Yay ~ more money printing)
~~~
West Side Story tune:
"When you're an inkJET you're a Jet all the way...
From yourt first QE2, till your last dying day"!
Go for it Ben, lets see $6 gas bring it on bitch.
Who needs durable goods when we've got iGadgets and Siri?
Siri, please give me directions back to sanity! I'm sorry sir, no such location seems to exist....
Me: Siri, tell me when its all going to carsh?
Siri: "it's all ready carshed, its just nobody wants to believe it"
Siri, if I bury you will you grow into food or maintain your value indefinitely?
"I'm not that kind of girl" SIRI
Fed Will Act to Boost the Economy, Just Not Today..... I guess he has advance information...... and the algos need something to feed on...and they put up this headline... as if it's gospel from the FOMC meeting- F-ing unbelievable.Key word breakfast for the algobots.
OH YEAH!! well I got you beat! Some dumb shit on Bloomberg wrote "Hints of Housing Bottom Seen in U.S..."
LMAO!! Get those retail suckers to buy BUY BUY!!!
Everything bottoms out eventually, even the Titanic stopped sinking and 'found a bottom'.
Yes, like Japan....everyone assumes that when a "bottom is found" that means things go up.....well, not always.
Yes, but it is 2.5 miles below sea level, with pressure around 6,000 lbs per square inch.
Yahoo Finance. Funny
Kind of like Google Privacy
This ponzi and it's loyal algobots have amazing power. Why, why I say, are futures still green? Nothing but bad economic data.
Rome burns, and AAPL/QE followers fiddle.
Moldilocks Economy. Bullish for mold. Er, gold.
What a joke this market has become when money printing and utter corruption are the only two "fundamentals" out there...
Who puts out this data ? This is preposterous! I hope the SEC sues them.
This scheme in the markets is just nuts. If the numbers are good, then the economy is recovering. If there is a miss, then the Fed will intervene with more liquidity.
Kinda like the market saying heads, I win, tails, you lose.
It is deadly to short this insane market.
Yeah, but the bottom line is that the bottom 80% in the US are getting steadily poorer. The middle class is shrinking and the lower classes are getting squeezed. Durable orders are down because 80% of the population can no longer afford them or at best have to buy less of them. That is the reality, and QE3-QE999 isn't going to change that. In fact, additional QE will accelerate the decline of that 80% because of commodity inflation.
QE creates the short-term illusion of wealth, but that short-term gets shorter and shorter.
Elvisdog,make it bottom 95%.
Doable Girls
http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_2
Industrial Demand for electricity down 1.8% for Jan 2012 vs Jan 2011
Probably due to iGadget 'power save' feature.
Sorry I was busy pouring syrup on my iPhone....whats this about an 'iEconomy'?
AAPL to 666
SPX to 1444
THAT is the economy.
Apparently the eCONomy is playing by the Fedz playbook but market partiicipants are not....a Pavlovian and conditioned market can only act the way it is told.
On the brighter side it will be obsolutely hillarious watching the Fedz bitch slap the market down so it can proceed with its final QE that works, yes, there will be more QEs but the adverse effects of "debt is money" will finally come home to roost in mid to late 2013 and the S&P will enjoy her free fall from 1600 to true value around 900.
Enjoy the next 12 months and stackem if you gotem!
The pieces dont seem to fit...theyre going to do all this 'bitch slap equities down carefully to deliver QE and ramp equities again but not quite yet' sometime later? All I see is a paranoid Wall St that immediately recovers any loss in total panic. Well good luck coasting along with $4 gas, that IS real and right now and its tanking the real economy out here. People are going to be real pissed by fall, no ones ever pulled off an election with gas prices hovering at all time highs. QE my ass, I say theyve got nothin.
.
BAD MARKETING I TELL YA!!
If they would just use google adds that said: BUY ONE JUMBOJET, GET A IPAD FOR FREE!
BUY 2 GET A FREE PRELOADED ITUNES CARD VALUED AT 500$!
sales would be booming...
BOOMING I TELL YA!!
I'll have a double dip.
Double dip.
Me too, double dip.
Make mine a double.
I'll have a double dip with a twist of lemon.
Me too, twist of lemon.
I'll have a twist also.
I'll have what they're having. Thanks.
This round's on me, <holds up phone to be scanned> just got an iPayday loan to hold me over!
Bravo.
Well played, sir.
Next round is on my phone, ha ha, I mean next round is on me.
Well Britain is down too....and we can assume the rest of Europe is not going to be spending to much......China...???? ...Brasil is slowing.....if the Arab Sring Islamist get control...they will not allow you to spend....it should mean slowing....but but but....debts and expenses keep on growing....and growing..and growing....
Benovolent Ben will make evrything right later today.
Ben will say 'I've got this shit this time, bitches!' and equities will rejoice yadda yadda....
The "NEW" market is not effected by retail numbers anymore. All Skynet, all the time.
"Is this the day? Is this the beginning of the end? There is no time to wonder. No time to ask why is it happening, why is it finally happening. There is time only for fear, for the piercing pain of panic. Do we pray? Or do we merely run now and pray later? Will there be a later? Or is this the day?"
from The Outer Limits 9/30/1963
Quick, Ben Bernane and the Federal Reserve doves start more QE. QE solves everything. In the mean inflation is running at a good clip. Go out to eat and you notice the price increases. That hamburger that used to cost $3.96 is now $5.50. All across the board companies are jacking up prices.
At this point what is QE3 really going to do but boost asset prices, and een that i doubt will be as big a bounce as people are expecting. It seems to me each dose of QE makes the real economy worse and worse.</p><p>If they launch QE3 soon, really will it do anything. I think even the FED knows it will probably buy us 2-4 months. But we will add another 1-2 trillion for 2-4 months time.</p><p>And I am even doubting the "bounce" we will get from QE3, ya might be 10-15%, but a 30%+ move like all other QE's, i just dont see it
It will make Wall Street feel better and really, what else matters..
Right so they'll 'bitch slap' equities down 10-15%, then add $2 trillion and get 10-15% back...except now gas will be $5 at least. Yea I dont buy any of it I think theyre just trying to glide as long as possible on a wing and a prayer. I call BS on the whole 'QE plan carved in stone' that everyone has concluded is a given.
Who forgot to put in their Boeing order (to be canceled at a future date)?
Wait until the HFT´s computers hit the order desk of Boeing.....millions of orders in a second only to be cancelled
You mean the debt laden American populace won't buy more cheap shit from China! Oh No...Senator Howdy says; Let's pass a law to "encourage you to buy"..It worked for Health insurance didn't it?..
We'll make it so you can claim your cost as a tax credit that will go into your new US government savings account for retirement..
Have we got a deal?
Just Monday, European markets were going to hell and now all of a sudden (even though the UK is going into recession) all is fine........just two days later? Everyone has to see this is nothing more than banks buying the markets with central bank's money to keep them alive as long as possible. NOTHING in the headlines suggest we should be going higher or that smart money would buy at these levels. There's Apple and then there's ........nothing!
Pure manipulation. There was a time about 10 years ago I would have said market is 40-50% manipulated. Now I say it is 80-90%.
Thing is banks can make themselves look good on paper with all the free interest they are getting from the gov loans and the profits they make pumping their own stock purchases higher. This will drag out for a while yet until John Q gets fed up and deals with it. Looking at Europe, that may take a while. They are further down that road than we are and their people are taking it fairly well. Course they are use to being serfs and having someone's boot on their neck. Still waiting for a catalyst to take down this house of cards so we can get back to reality.
Yes and notice dipshit Ben is all over the news with the green curtain behind him. As always.
> green curtain behind him.....
Like the Wizard of OZ.
You mean Lizard Of Oz
I think the Dow will open UP, since oil is DOWN.
Oil is down, yet up? How does that work?
The clown in chief's economic record of failure is becoming more and more odvious even to the democrats. Expect Bernanke and the gang of UNELECTED morons to loosen the spigot to juice this pathetic mess one more time in hopes of fooling the public once again. The media doesnt need to be fooled, they publish whatever will re-elect thier comrad..
No ones fooled at the gas pump or grocery store, thats for sure. Now let Bernank 'juice it' again and we've got $6 gas and groceries no one can afford any longer. No one gives a shit about stocks. And my bet is on the bankers wanting Romney in there to place the blame on 'white republican'...I almost guarantee that one.
"Manufacturers Regain Swagger With Rosy Earnings"http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230397810457736416290556361...
But the WSJ said...
Oh theyre 'swaggering' now...yea sure.
An update on TARGET2
http://www.cnhedge.com/thread-4003-1-1.html
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
Gold is a durable good....it lasts more than 3 years ! SARC/ON Monedas 2012 Comedy Jihad Humour Is Forever !
You make it sound as though this was relevant. Go buy an iPad and eat it ... everything else in irrelevant in Obama's America.
And gambling is fun. Obama said you should stop going to Vegas because he wanted to promote the Wall Street casino. The dow is the economy, isn't it?
No such thing as bad news, DOW has a raging hard-on this morning.
The algos and banksters think the same way. Good news buy because it is good news. Bad news buy because when it all craps out, they get bailed out because how could anyone see the crap out coming.
Puzzling.....why is HOG doing so well in this economy? This is actually a serious question....
The Fed has no choice. Credit is collapsing, and the dollar strengthening.
If they don't inflate the economy will die because the dollar will run and businesses will lack credit and exports.
If they inflate, only good will happen, except to the schlubs. Cost of living will impoverish the schlubs, while business will be able to export, and make money on overseas business. Instead of $75 M overseas, AAPL will have $150M overseas. Inflation will make debt disappear. Instead of playing with the interest rate curve, the Fed should simply buy all new issued short end Ts from the treasury, and let the curve find its own way. Oops, except the 30 year will run away on inflation expectation. Bad news for Obama, though since gas during summer will be $5/gal. Cannot have that. Maybe the Fed can short the crap out of WTIC futures and buy them back after the election. Hmmm. Does seem like a good idea there.
No hope. Unless you are Goldman Sachs.
Unexpected /boggle
Thanks for putting PM's on sale again guys.
Pretty soon this WILL blow up in their faces and I'll have a stack Midas could envy.
Bring it on Blythe et al. I dare you to crush 'em more.