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Margin Stanley, China, And High Yield: Mix It All In, And Let Simmer (With An Aussie Accent?)

Tyler Durden's picture


This week's trifecta of key financial developments, that go far deeper than superficial headlines, namely China, Morgan Stanley (and European bank exposure in general) and the equity-credit disconnect, just got another major push. CNBC just interviewed Tim Backshall (of Capital Context) to discuss the dramatic moves in MS credit risk (which we mentioned earlier) and in an undeniably convincing accent (British, Aussie, South African?), he managed to bring many of our broader concerns into focus including global financial contagion, bank funding, Chinese growth, and high yield credit. We also learned that ZeroHedge is a blog.


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Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:34 | 1726546 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

New Zealand.  and time to update that picture

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:37 | 1726837 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Nope. British, with a bit of SAfa thrown in there.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 19:48 | 1727850 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Yup he's a Pommie who hangs around Sooth Efricans. Who is the tough broad?

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 15:01 | 1726968 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

An Aussie fosho. As for the rest... WORST.THREESOME.EVER.

Sat, 10/01/2011 - 10:04 | 1728714 covert
covert's picture

ambition wins in the long run.


Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:35 | 1726550 tuco13
tuco13's picture

And a damn good blog...thanks ZH

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:57 | 1726635 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

I would follow Tyler Durden to the gates of Hades! Even if gold collapses, I have learned a ton over the past few years here at ZH. Well worth the knowledge.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:56 | 1726946 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

tyler is running zH from the other side of those gates, baby_B!

hiya!  i just stopped in to see if peter tchir was australian...

see ya!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:56 | 1726643 CClarity
CClarity's picture

ZH - a blog, increasingly a media outlet (but not MSM), certainly an educational "institution", and a community of people who challenge conventional thinking - and call bulls--t on manipulated medicated market mavens and media pawns.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:23 | 1726775 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The bullshit calling here and internal fights over finance and economics . . . and geology, is typically excellent.  Everyone has learned how to skim over worthless thought after this long online, and that which is not worthless here gets read.

As long as it's short.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:36 | 1726833 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

No, media inlet

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 15:38 | 1727115 Catch-22
Catch-22's picture

Calling ZH a blog is like calling Everest a mountain... it just doesn't do it justice.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:57 | 1726646 Nascent_Variable
Nascent_Variable's picture

Our mission, should we choose to accept it, is to find a way to get a CNBS reporter to say the words, "Zerohedge, bitchez."

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:09 | 1726703 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Hey, I'm just happy to see that CNBC biatch having to say "Zerohedge", tacitly acknowledging its impact on the financial markets and FinNews reporting.  MSM can no longer ignore Tyler and the boyz.  ZH just keeps dishing up the truth and serving it hot.   

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:15 | 1726734 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Lately Bloomberg has been doing floor interviews, and several traders have mentioned ZH on those as well.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:01 | 1726672 Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture

Great job Tyler....just afraid that you'll become too mainstream!  Keep it fair and balanced!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:27 | 1726794 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

agreed. I feel fortunate to have found this site. I have learned SO much here. thanks TD!!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 17:30 | 1727549 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture


I think they (on Strategy Session) were referencing Reggie's article about the 100's of trillions in CDS exposure of U.S. banks in Europe (?).

Oh yeah, everything is solved, that is why the insolvent banks are still leveraged to the hilt after robbing taxpayers for the past 3 years.

Peanuts!  Popcorn!  Cotton Candy!


Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:35 | 1726551 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Margin Stanley? Typo or on purpose.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:43 | 1726585 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

stop it already

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 16:34 | 1727375 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Only -10? Thought i'd get more than that.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:40 | 1726573 credittrader
credittrader's picture

Hey!! I'm English!! Tnx for post! Hope it helps someone. (accent is funky on TV though - even my kids don't recognize me!!)

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:00 | 1726662 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Hey, yourself!

For reals, the guy in the interview hangs out here?!  Outstanding!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:15 | 1726736 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I bet people would be real surprised if they could see who really drops by the ZH Project Mayhem corner of the internet.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 17:36 | 1727592 ramblinon
ramblinon's picture
Look, the people you are after are the people you depend on. We cook your meals, we haul your trash, we connect your calls, we drive your ambulances. We make guest appearances on CNBC and inseminate the mainstream media with the painful truth of how fucked we really are.
Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:02 | 1726676 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Don't let them read over your shoulder unless you are okay with some of the things they might try to sound out on this blog!!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:25 | 1726694 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture



A wise credit trader named Tim

Spoke to CNBC on a whim

His truth had not changed

So they quickly arranged

A segment to discredit him

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:41 | 1726577 citrine
citrine's picture

It sounds like reading ZeroHedge blog is a part of a daily routine of CNBC.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:43 | 1726583 shazbotz
shazbotz's picture

It lets them pretend to have opinions and sound intelligent on TV, when they otherwise wouldn't.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:46 | 1726595 Nascent_Variable
Nascent_Variable's picture

Not a chance.  Too many big words.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:55 | 1726608 fuu
fuu's picture

It would explain some of the attention whoring. Whores will whore.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:56 | 1726644 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Did you hear that cunt? "Zero Hedge started the fear...".. they play the lefty play book like Champeeeeens..  it's like they were born with it or something..but mostly "or something". 

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:07 | 1726701 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We didnt start the fire, it was always burnin since the worlds been turnin.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:09 | 1726709 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Pretty funny though when you see what theyre really saying- 'All was well until this meddling 'Zerohedge' came along and caused all these problems and the banks to fall apart'.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:29 | 1726804 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Exactly..  I'm thorougly amazed at the lack of journalistic integrity. I mean, it was bad 10 years ago.. but holy shit.. they tripled down on the white washing.. or is it brainwashing.. I'll go with both. 

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 15:09 | 1726998 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Pretty funny though when you see what theyre really saying- 'All was well until this meddling 'Zerohedge' came along and caused all these problems and the banks to fall apart'.

Voice of busted villain on Scooby Doo: ...and I'd have gotten away with it if it wasn't for those meddling kids!


Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:42 | 1726584 HedgeFun
HedgeFun's picture

Just letting you all know I type with a British / Aussie accent. 

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:09 | 1726711 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture


Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:45 | 1726592 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

Lol. Much love Tyler.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:46 | 1726594 d00daa
d00daa's picture

lmfao @ 'margin stanley'  bwahahahahahahahahaha

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:53 | 1726611 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

What is this Zero Hedge blog ? I thought the first rule of fight club is that you don't talk about  fight club.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:01 | 1726671 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We dont talk about it, but a lot of people are peering in thru the basement window though.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:03 | 1726686 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Somebody needs to give them a beat down on CNBS then for mentioning it.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:05 | 1726689 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Fight Club was the beginning, now it's moved out of the basement, it's called Project Mayhem.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:16 | 1726744 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Well if we've moved on to Project Mayhem then we need to target my mortage holder. I'm tired of paying for the fucking thing.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:53 | 1726618 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

damn, ZH is winning

RIGHT ON, tyler, keep aiming at the head....and the throat!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:52 | 1726620 kito
kito's picture


did zh cover the wretched restaurant numbers??? every once in a while i do overlook a post :)

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:59 | 1726639 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture


Thanks for that, kito.

I am always fascinated by restaurant industry numbers, usually track them diligently, and I didn't see that anywhere.

Restaurant #s are interesting to me because they are a relatively decent barometer of not only current consumer health, but future expectations.

Restaurants have been acting similarly to REITs in the sense that to the extent that we can discount the padding that CMBS buybacks and TARP/TALF by the Fed and Treasury have provided them, any genuine investment interest in these sectors is most certainly driven by (insane, IMO) expectations of anything remotely resembling a V-shaped recovery (good luck to those buying in to a v-shaped anything, and not an L shaped something, or more likely, a Z shaped one).


Sat, 10/01/2011 - 00:29 | 1728258 i-dog
i-dog's picture

"Restaurant #s are interesting to me because they are a relatively decent barometer of not only current consumer health, but future expectations."

I ask taxicab drivers how their business is. They are a great forward indicator because discretionary spending on "simple luxuries" is the first to be affected ... months in advance of the overall economic numbers being published or known.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:02 | 1726642 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I have a cousin who works in a restaurant chain....a major one...she tells me the people going are mostly going on special offers and gift cards and no one tips for shit anymore.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:21 | 1726760 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

When I was running a software embedded product dev company, the standard reward for the guys was a good meal (often largely liquid) on the house at some local restaurant - we had a lot of fun.  Even back then, we'd look around and see who else could afford to be there drinking, well after normal lunch hour as an economic indicator.  It's a real good one.  Others are my local RT 81 interstate.  When things are good, it's mostly trucks, loaded.  I also ask other business owners how things are, and look at parking lots as I drive through the commercial strips.  All good indicators and many you can't find online - you have to go out and press the flesh, and apply (gasp) judgment.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 18:46 | 1727744 unununium
unununium's picture

CR still slavishly reports those restaurant numbers?  I suppose he is still convinced there's nothing systemically wrong with MERS.  Haven't missed looking in there in the last 12 months.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 19:43 | 1727837 o2sd
o2sd's picture

Interesting drop in JANUARY 08. Looks like restaurant numbers are a leading indicator of disposable income. That is, people stop going out to restaurants before they stop paying their mortgage.


Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:52 | 1726624 digalert
digalert's picture


@ ZeroHedge

when you're taking flack, you're over the target.

Riding the financial tsunami...hangin ten

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:53 | 1726629 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

that was a great interview, sort of surprised

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:53 | 1726631 sheeple2012
sheeple2012's picture

MSN Homepage: Warren Buffet: recession "extremely unlikely"

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:04 | 1726688 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, depression 'certain' though.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 20:49 | 1727962 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Uncle Warren is a sock puppet to Obama's clown. The more he interwines his empire with Obama, the more foolish he sounds. Uncle Warren clearly is unhinged with power and publicity. It is unfathomable to me that he would risk so much to protect an ass.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:55 | 1726637 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

"It's important to note that Morgan Stanley's CDS's aren't as high as they were in 2008..."


Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:56 | 1726641 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

"In his daily note, Art Cashin caught a key bit from a Ben Bernanke Q&A last night after he gave a speech, further emphasizing that Bernanke has radically changed his views.

"Monetary policy can do a lot, but monetary policy is not a panacea," Bernanke said."


Sounds like no  moer QE. ever.  If Congress (Tea Party) wants the US to go into a depression, the Fed will let it.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:58 | 1726652 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Cant blame the culmination of 100 years of policy on a few people who didnt even exist until 2 years ago.

So really what youre saying is the FED would keep us OUT of the depression we're presently in by printing moar, if only it werent for those meddling 'tea party' who dont like printing?

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:02 | 1726678 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Could it be why the big banks are increasing fees to customers?..........

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:10 | 1726713 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

 It's the policies of the fed that is pushed us into the current depression that we are in. I'd rather go through a depression that cleans out the system than the hyper inflationary depression that more QE would push us into.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:56 | 1726645 Todd Horlbeck
Todd Horlbeck's picture

It does make you wonder what "tools" the Fed will use to get in front of this.  I think the probability of any of these companies going out of business is zero, after what we came through.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:41 | 1726861 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

As some other poster wrote, the only tool the Fed has is a big dildo and the only thing you can do with that kind of tool is to screw the people

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:00 | 1726653 d00daa
d00daa's picture

further , lmfao @ talking head retard calling out 'illiquid' cds market, 'hedge funds' manipulating prices, and zh starting the 'fear' with margin stanley.

i swear there is no such thing as a bear market to these people.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:00 | 1726657 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Banks going short and puts right now, all time highs...their 'QE' will be the next market dump which will shear and butcher the 401K/pensioners, and wont be recovered. 

Merry Christmas, bitchez.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:01 | 1726668 doomz78
doomz78's picture

The fed will bail them out if need be.  I don't think you can walk away from bailouts at this point.  Too many have been done to now stop.  China is starting to worry me a bit now.  I think they will have higher inflation and low growth in the next year or so.  They are supposed to be the stable and steady ones.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:12 | 1726681 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Further bailouts are not the point, I dont know what its going to take for this to sink in.

Besides, further bailouts at this point are not a positive, its a 'sell the news' event now.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:02 | 1726677 NO1HOME
NO1HOME's picture

The Artisan Proroganda Class Citizen will have sway in awaking the wetiko to the revolution.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:19 | 1726754 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'His name is Zero Hedge.....his name is Zero Hedge......his name is Zero Hedge.....'

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:26 | 1726787 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

I had dumplings last night for dinner. No cardboard in them as some people say.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:27 | 1726797 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Yikes, I do  not like it when the squids, idiots and other govt. officials know too much about us, Tyler and staff. I trust none of them.

Markets getting interesting now. They are beyond broken. NDX 100 at the starting line and going to start a stampede. Check out that chart.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:28 | 1726800 css1971
css1971's picture

British accent. Southern English. Sorry I'm not good enough to give a county, but probably one in rail commuting distance of The City.

I'd have called ZH a news aggregator & financial research site. But there you go.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:29 | 1726807 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Zerohedge is one of those 'blog thingies'...

She's probably actually doing a service to the CNBC audience, bunch of fuktards sitting there in their bathrobes with their bull horn hats on.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:39 | 1726848 monopoly
monopoly's picture

And any analyst that recommends banks at this point is "irresponsible". That even lifted Michel's eyebrows.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:40 | 1726855 terryfuckwit
terryfuckwit's picture

yes rock on you tyler guys/gels.. I would like to share my story of how i got to know ZH. a GAS FITTER camr to our house who was bulgarian to certify the heating system and as you get chating he told me Russia Today has some interesting views on stuff as i had been watching some al jazeera.. So i started watching and really enjoyed mad max keiser and soon through his website got to know ZH.. It shows MSM UK would never lead you to ZH..

Even though the route here was a strangeone all routes are good one's .. Telling the truth is an amazingly powerful message that will always find a way.. Keep an eye on Tor etc in case you ever need to go underground you transparency in reporting will always see you welcomed by open source movements...

Here we are after silver and gold being pummelled and every MSM telling us the bubble has burst.. but only this place and a few others can explain why nearly all online dealers are selling out of the stuff.. keep it up...


Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:46 | 1726893 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

What's a "blog"?

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 14:48 | 1726909 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

ZH = market movers

RoboFader = Ape$h!t 

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 15:09 | 1726996 Duffminster
Duffminster's picture

I wish you guys would post some complimentary commentary please:


It appears to me that the perfect debt and liquidy crisis is brewing between China, the EU and the US.  With Geithner's Euro TARP being rejected out of hand, it seems that all the toxic debt on China's banks books, coupled with the deteriorating credit situation in Europe and the increasing push back to the paradigm of "we will balance the debts of insolvent too big to fail banks on the backs of tax payers" growing virally in both conservative and liberal circles, I don't see any Keysian stimulus coming to create the kind of growth necessary to fund austerity, or the banks. 

Austerity is going to slow GDP in the nations to which it applied, even ultimately the US as the Tea Party trys to destroy social security and medicare and Perry will do away with QE for ever, I can see interest rates spiking to 10% or higher and the US going bust in short order sometime around 2012 - 2014.  

While I think probabl all asset classes will sell off, including gold and silver, when the dust settles, a few years down the line, gold and silver will once again be the defactor global reserve currency and that by DEFAULT.  Did I say it ... yes ... DEFAULT.



Fri, 09/30/2011 - 15:15 | 1727027 RSloane
RSloane's picture

The more signifant way to look at this story is ZH occasionally mentions CNBC.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 15:26 | 1727070 prophet
prophet's picture

time to anti up

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 15:28 | 1727074 ivars
ivars's picture

From all the information I have been getting from the USA since 2008, believe me or not, the President will be the one who will be most against the system and still not a socialist. Why? Because of economic collapse of the USA  (loss of reserve currency status,exploding debt ,  imminent default )  in 2012 the only candidate most people could vote for is someone who has positioned him(her) self AGAINST both parties or at least their elites responsible for the mess, and is populist and individualist-we the people.

In 1928 Hitler was nothing. 2,6 % of votes went to Nazi Party despite ongoing economic mess. People still thought old guys club can solve the mess. After 1929 catastrophe, in 1930 nazis got 18% of vote. In 1932 July, 37,8% of votes. The outsiders become the leaders in 3 years after crisis. What followed is already different story.

Even if it looks unbelievable today, situation will change dramatically after second recession in Q1 2012 and following loss of creditor trust in the USA debt. The realization of crisis will be finally as acute as in 1932 Germany. 

Now whom will new President be dealing with in the world- see here what I think China will turn out as events take the course mentioned above:

Of course, these are just my ideas about future. i have lived in Soviet Union 27 years, know the history, and see very good analogy between 1929 crisis and Soviet Unions reaction ( Stalin coming to power ruthlessly etc- see in the link) and current crisis and Chinese situation today after current crisis. Pre 1929 Soviet union ran NEP- basically capitalism with booming foreign investment and communist rulers . Pre crisis ( coming ) China still runs Communist ruled capitalism. But it will stop ASAP as hardliners take over when softliners will lose money in the USA debt crash ( unsustainable growth processes just crash=default=haircut of Chinese investment )

On a side note, be aware of stocks of companies who are too dependent/invested heavily in China. They will be mostly nationalized in coming years of decooperation in the world.

Again, having lived in the Soviet Union, I have absolutely NO trust in communist good or peaceful intentions. They are always temporary , for some gain to their power. If they think they can pull it through, they will. they have great examples in history ( Stalinism) who had succeeded in playing on the weaknesses of the West after 1929 and moved Soviet Union from nothing to world superpower with huge territorial expansion in mere 16-20  years. Yes it cost some 50 million lives in Soviet union together with war, but who cares? NOT the practical  communists in power.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 20:58 | 1727976 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Thank you for sharing your insights and personal experiences. Good read.

Sat, 10/01/2011 - 01:28 | 1728330 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Excellent analysis (and I also liked all your comments at Sapo's Joint). Americans just don't understand communism, China/Russia, or the rhymes of history. They are in for a mighty shock next year.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 16:13 | 1727271 tigersea
tigersea's picture

rumor there is at least one branch of a major state-owned chinese bank banning withdraw until after month end to meet reserve ratio.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 16:28 | 1727348 mt paul
mt paul's picture

morgan stanley

down 50.36 % YTD....

karma is a bytch...

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 16:36 | 1727388 prophet
prophet's picture

Yes, another one of the Tylers on MSM.

"You've been dead on."

"... irresponsible in terms of not having a clue ..."

"... knife catching is little bit too risky ..."


Fri, 09/30/2011 - 17:29 | 1727574 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

S&P500 updated chart at blog shows price converging towards apex.

It should drop out of triangle and resumption of downtrend.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 19:09 | 1727786 paul_Liu
paul_Liu's picture

Look like what the guy talked about is of Tyler's ideas.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 23:47 | 1728216 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

Much like Jon Stewart has replaced the nightly news, Zero Hedge has replaced the Wall Street Journal.


Sat, 10/01/2011 - 00:29 | 1728282 sherryw
sherryw's picture

Definitely not Aussie. Unless...he's been living in England a long time.

Sat, 10/01/2011 - 11:58 | 1728970 Peter K
Peter K's picture

I'll say Aussie.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!