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The Forthcoming Hellenic Curse

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via Mark J. Grant, Author of Out of the Box,

Tragedy (Ancient Greek:, tragoidia, "the-goat-song") is a form of drama based on human suffering that invokes in its audience an accompanying catharsis or pleasure in the viewing. While many cultures have developed forms that provoke this paradoxical response, tragedy often refers to a specific tradition of drama that has played a unique and important role historically in the self-definition of Western civilization.
 
                                                           -Wikipedia
 
 
The Synopsis of a Greek Tragedy
 
The days have passed since January 13, 2010 when I first expressed my opinion that Greece would default. Weeks and months have come and gone; Athens has been rescued by the Troika, private bondholders were forced into a Draconian swap as the Germans attempted to soothe their citizens and boatloads of money has been dumped into the Greek economy and into the Greek banks. The demands for “austerity measures” heaped upon the citizens and the economy of Greece has sent the marginally poor into the streets and into bread lines and caused a Depression in Greece based largely upon the imposition of the Troika’s demands that Greece must curtail the standard of living which was initially granted by Greece joining the European Union. The hand that fed the beast became the hand that began the slaughter and as the lifeblood was sprayed upon the concrete floor; the rest of Europe tries to decide when to turn off the life support while the patient agonizes between life and death in its present condition. Greece is, in fact, in the death throes of its existence as brought about by its addiction to the cash that was offered and then is being restricted. It is the bleakest of nights in Troy and the soldiers are slipping out from the horse.

“The god of wine looked around at the assembled crowd. “Miss me?”

 

The satyrs fell over themselves nodding and bowing. “Oh, yes, very much, sire!”

 

“Well, I did not miss this place!” Dionysus snapped. “I bear bad news, my friends. Evil news. The minor gods are changing sides. Morpheus has gone over to the enemy. Hecate, Janus, and Nemesis, as well. Zeus knows how many more.”

 

Thunder rumbled in the distance.

 

“Strike that,” Dionysus said. “Even Zeus doesn’t know.”

 

                         -Rick Riordan, The Battle of the Labyrinth

While some with knowledge of the actual conditions liken the situation to some sort of Armageddon, the markets largely ignore what is about to happen because they have been told and re-told a series of lies about the fiscal state of Greece and have focused upon the small size of the country which will turn out to be one grave mistake in judgment. The markets have had a slew of propaganda directed at them informing them that the horned goat was a passive sheep but the veil of deceit is about to be lifted which is why I think that the reality of what is about to take place is nowhere close, not in one hundred leagues, of the coming actuality which has not been priced into the markets with any sort of accuracy. I shall endeavor to explain.
 
Almost everyone has focused upon the sovereign debt, that it is no longer placed at the European banks and that it is resident at the European Central Bank which is protected by all of the nations in Europe. This is true, as far as it goes, but the summation does not go nearly far enough. The hit, when it comes, will require the ECB to be recapitalized, will be felt at the IMF where the United States will take 16% of the hit or around $16 billion which will be trumpeted in the Press by the Republicans and waved like a banner in the Press. The recapitalization of the ECB will require hard cash from the nations in Europe which is quite different than promises and contingent assurances so that nations may get downgraded as a result of their capital outflows. The EIB will also take a hit and it may get downgraded but all of this just focuses upon the sovereign debt and is non-inclusive of the rest of the story or even of the truth of the sovereign debt.
 
Greece has $90 billion in derivative contracts that will likely default and the losses will then have to be taken at the French, German and American banks. The contractual obligations of the nation will probably get revoked which will impact the health providers, Greek companies providing goods and services to the country and the Greek banks which have been lending money on these obligations. The number here is someplace between 20-40 billion dollars as far as I can find data to understand the breadth of the problem. The banks will probably renounce their obligations to other European banks which is not included in the sovereign debt figures and will certainly have a significant impact. The Greek banks who have their debt guaranteed by the sovereign in an amount just shy of $100 billion will also likely default and this $100 billion is NOT counted as a part of the Greek sovereign debt as it is a contingent liability and hence not counted by Europe except that the contingent is about to become a quite real liability and an additional hit to the ECB so that the number bandied about in the Press for the Greek liability at the ECB is nowhere close to reality. Then there is the municipal debt which is found throughout the European banks and insurance companies. Next is the loans, the mortgages and other debts that have been securitized and pledged to the ECB and other European banks which then rehypothecated the securities and also pledged them to the ECB as collateral so that there is a cubed effect that is going to be set-off as the house of cards implodes in upon itself.  The number is approximately $1.3 trillion in total and all of it is going to default as Greece heads back to the Drachma and thumbs its nose at those that placed them in the “iron maiden” demanding not only confession but absolution which, in the end, will be denied.
 
"The god on the cross is a curse on life, a signpost to seek redemption from life; Dionysus cut to pieces is a promise of life: it will be eternally reborn and return again from destruction
                                                               
                                                     -Friedrich Nietzsche

 

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Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:05 | 2434798 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So long as fraud remains unprosecuted and there is no trust or rule of law, we will all end up like Greece.  Got physical assets and trustworthy like-minded employees and friends, you fucking better because possession is now the law.  Hedge accordingly.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:06 | 2434805 malikai
malikai's picture

Prosecute? What? Man, we're electing them! Some of us even worship them. We forget well.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:08 | 2434811 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not sustainable.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:12 | 2434819 malikai
malikai's picture

Peace will soon become unsustainable.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:17 | 2434839 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Peace has never been sustainable.  Besides, "peace" is also dependent upon perspective and means many different things depending whether or not you are a predator or prey.  

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:24 | 2434877 malikai
malikai's picture

Perhaps it is perspective. I define peace as waking up without fires raging throughout my town, neighbors being robbed, killed, riots daily, etc. This is the peace I'm referring to. Not just war.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:17 | 2434822 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

Man, we're electing them!

They are appointed, NOT ELECTED! Just like the US Elections....Romney!, give me a break. McCain, another break.

Ron Paul, not elected and the most desirable.

Propagandized out of the system.

We are in the mist of a nightmare, totalitarian rule that is about to get ugly.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:41 | 2434999 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Most desireable? Paul has some ideas...that's about it.

 

$1.3 Tril...yeah, now that's some dough that's gonna cause indigestion.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:09 | 2435166 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

"Paul has some ideas...that's about it."

You mean, ideas like using gold as money, ending the Fed, ending the wars, ending the special interests grab on Congress, restoring the Republic, and changing the philosophy of government towards a philosophy of individual liberty?

That's what you call "some ideas and that's about it", right?

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 22:32 | 2442681 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Yes, he has ideas, some good ideas, but he does not have the personna to be effective as a leader.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 17:02 | 2437310 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

Ron Paul is not out of the game yet.

He is twisting the twisted process, in a way not anticipated by the smug party elites.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robin-koerner/its-romneys-to-lose-heres_b_...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:04 | 2434800 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Do you think we could maybe fire a few executive types for failure

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:08 | 2434810 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Sure, right after you buy back your congress from them.  There are no longer any real consequences for failure.  FYI- having your bonus go from 50 million to 25 million is not a real fucking consequence.  No more fucking bailouts, period.  These paper-pushing asshats need work, they can pay me to clear some of my land after they get kicked to the fucking curb.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:43 | 2435010 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Reclaim the dough they stole. Everyone over a Bill gets reset to $500 mill. That should help.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:06 | 2434804 manhunter
manhunter's picture

Why anglowriters pump this silly propaganda is obvious; they are the dollar bloc.

Greece isn't going anywhere. If they want to default they can stay in the union and default. Nothing is gained by leaving, so they won't leave.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:11 | 2434816 BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

Really?  That's good news, Im glad its that easy. Now Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Ireland can all default too.  Im sure there would be no ramifications of that.

You say "Nothing is gained by leaving."  Ever heard of a thing called freedom?

 

Fuck off

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:27 | 2434817 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Technically greece has defaulted several times already, so has the U.S. and numerous other countries. Same as it ever was, we either learn to live with one another or we go to war.  Those who forget the past are indeed doomed to repeat it.  The real issue is that of value and a safe store of value for your labor.  The paper-pushers (who caused the crisis in the first place and profitted from their failure) still think their labor has value, atlas is shrugging yet again.  Only a reset will remind everyone what real value is and re-connect compensation (in numerous forms) with people who are actually worth a shit.  Same as it ever was.  Know the real value of your labor?  you fucking better.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:40 | 2435385 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

The U.S. has never defaulted on its bonds.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 11:05 | 2435567 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LMFAO!! Someone with considerably more time want to review the 200+ years of history of U.S. and central banks, then events leading up to the Federal Reserve Act and loss of sovereign citizenship, as well as the issue of inflation and the fact that those bonds today are "paid back" with dollars that have considerably less buying power.  FAIL.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 11:20 | 2435646 Matt
Matt's picture

not outright. Changing the terms of payment is a form of default, like if I promise to pay you in gold or paper money that is as good as gold, then I pay you with pieces of paper that are not exchangeable for gold. Or if I promise to pay you a certain value in the future, but I devalue the currency so the amount you are paid back is actually less than the value lent to me in the first place.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:16 | 2434832 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Oh thank God! I am soooo glad you cleared that up for us. Now I can go back to sleep. /sarc off.

Now......if only you had a clue.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:08 | 2434809 waldocktrades
waldocktrades's picture

How close is the Greek default? See here - http://bit.ly/KbbEyG

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:09 | 2434813 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I need some more dramatic quotes to keep me interested.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:40 | 2435997 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

  "This is Sparta!"

How's that?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:09 | 2434814 malikai
malikai's picture

Disclosure: I'm long Greek lamp posts.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:18 | 2434842 fourchan
fourchan's picture

im going long cobblestones and molotov cocktail componants.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:20 | 2434850 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

‘Big brother’ lamp posts can hear, see and bark ‘Obey!’ at you

 

http://rt.com/news/big-brother-street-lamps-286/

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:13 | 2434820 tim73
tim73's picture

Greece could go the way of Kosovo. Euro is the official currency there without them having influence over it, like ECB backed central bank. There is no realistic chance to issue a new currency, it would be instant used toilet paper. Greek themselves will not back it up and run away from it as fast as they could.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:36 | 2434967 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Bad example for various reasons. Maybe Montenegro would serve as a better attempt.

Bartering is going viral. Simple as that.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:50 | 2435059 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Bartering is going viral.

Glad I'm a grower then. Get your garden in folks. Include medicinal herbs.

 

BTW. love the electric smurf vagina.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:14 | 2434824 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

upside down usa citizens are deadbeats, why not the greeks?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:14 | 2434825 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Was Greece so much better off before the Euro? It's debatable. But the Euro era brought unprecendented prosperity. Now the blessing has become the curse as it's clear that smaller nations were exploited by larger ones, as always happens in Empires. It's the whole point of Empire. 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:49 | 2435049 walküre
walküre's picture

Greece is Greece. Corrupt and crappy. They had a chance to do something great, they blew it. Greece w/o Euro will become Albania. For the rest of Europe the Greek exit is a blessing. ECB can continue to monetize debt, ease and do whatever to protect the Status Quo in Europe and not piss more good money after bad in Greece. Greeks can print their own toilet paper and go down in the dustbin of history.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:58 | 2435099 Olympia
Olympia's picture

Greece and Greeks probably gave you everything you have today. From your language, to your way of thinking, up to Geometry etc. A little bit of more respect would be appreciated.

and for the reason you probably can read German, read here: 

 

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/03/deutsch-griechische-beziehunge...

 

.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:19 | 2435238 the phantom
the phantom's picture

Nice plan... "do whatever".  So when Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc. come to the same point as Greece, the ECB can "do whatever" because the problem of Greece will be solved for the EU.

Moron.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:15 | 2434830 Olympia
Olympia's picture

History shall repeat itself in a far greater scale and therefore the benefit for the leading roles shall be much greater. If ancient Greeks won the battle against the barbarity of the East in favour of Europe, then modern Greeks are those who are meant to win the battle against the barbarity of both Eastern and Western world in favour of the human kind.

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/search/label/ENGLISH

 

By knowing what happened in indebted Greece, where loan sharks created “bubbles” and the current inhuman debt, one can understand the inhuman plan in total ...understand where this plan started just to bring all states at the same end ...understand how this type of plans are established...

Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU

 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:25 | 2434886 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Dear Olympia, the Greek people must first tame the barbarian that is inside them and which always expected a free ride by not paying any taxes, expecting EU handouts, treating tourists like victims instead of guests, waiting for Greeks abroad to send them money and promising their vote to the politician that promised them a government job for their son or daughter.

Once the Greek people defeat the barbarians within their borders and within themselves we can then discuss the barbarity of East and West, but not before that happens.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:30 | 2434919 Olympia
Olympia's picture

Don't worry and the Greek people have already sent the message on the latest elections. Soon, all the internal treasoners will end their "carreer". Time has come. Soon, the Game will be Over!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:41 | 2434995 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Either the Greeks will make the message of the first election even louder and rid itself of the two evils that fed off her for over 30 years or they will get scared of being brave and instead will head back into the arms of those who have already betrayed them in the past. I fear the second will happen because the media will do its job on behalf of the long established forces.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:45 | 2435023 Olympia
Olympia's picture

 

I fully agree with you that Media is already working on their major propaganda in order to manipulate the masses. Though, even the "not-well-edcated" masses now know what is going on.

People should start getting ready for great trials ...for International Courts, where the current loan sharks shall give account. Monetarism criminals should sit on the same benches that once sat Nazi criminals. Rothschild, Rockefeller, Greenspan, Bernanke, Trichet, Soros, Buffett –and other “kids” of the loan sharking- should not sleep calmly from this point on. So, should also do their Quisling-type partners ...all the traitors who undertook power supported by the Monetarists and exercised leadership at the expense of their people ...Merkel, Sarkozy, Barroso, Zapatero, Papandreou and others. 

The world is getting “awake” from “narcosis” and pity to the one who shall be found to have made the wrong at the wrong time ...pity to the who “sedated” them to “rape” them ...pity to the one who shall be found holding the criminal “tube” ...pity to the one who threatened the future of the human kind.

I can guarantee you, time has come. The game will be OVER soon!

 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:26 | 2435930 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Pay back for troy.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:55 | 2436072 Olympia
Olympia's picture

We conquered Troy long time ago...and I guess you know how we did it...

Now, think about we are about to use again a modern times Trojan Horse.... :)

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:16 | 2434836 Yikes
Yikes's picture

Everytime I hear that the IMF has to help bailout Europe I just shake my head.  The IMF is Europe!  How in holy hell can they bail themselves out. 

 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:31 | 2434902 reload
reload's picture

Osbourne (UK Chancellor) was explaining a few weeks ago that he had just guaranteed an extra £5bln for the IMF. "We have not given them the money" he said "we have promissed to make it available if it is needed"

Like an unemployed child pledging to backstop his unemployed parents undewrater mortgage.

Except Mr Osbourne has Mervin Kings `ye olde printing press` in Threadneedle Street at his disposal. 

I think we are in for some shock and awe printing veeerrrryyy soon.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:54 | 2435090 aus_punter
aus_punter's picture

Agreed, though the unelected political elite, misfits like Von Rumpuy et al , will need to call a meeting about a summit for after their holidays..... so thinking that it cannot get uglier in the meantime is wrong

 

The lack of any communication is staggering, their financial institutions are crumbling, their pension systems rapidly becoming insolvent and people are rioting in the streets......and ...... and..... ahhhh

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:17 | 2434838 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Can you say "counterparty risk"???  Deja Vu!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:45 | 2435428 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Rehypothecation biatchezzzzz

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:19 | 2434845 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Let's compromise. The ECB could issue a new currency for Greece called the NEURON which will be worth half of the Euro initially. This will allow Greece to have a currency that is competitive but also under the control of Europe to ensure that the devaluation is not wasted and that Greece will not do a Benanke or Mugabe and start printing.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:24 | 2434879 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

Totalatarian law enforcement, slavery  and deprivation at the bottom of the pyramid.

Absolute lawlessness, decadence and unbridled money printing at the top.

Sustainable until it isn't.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:27 | 2434896 Bobby Lee
Bobby Lee's picture

Amidst all the talk of default and exit, no one mentions the most likely outcome: military coup.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:29 | 2434907 youngman
youngman's picture

I am 100% with you on that one....

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:35 | 2434960 Bobby Lee
Bobby Lee's picture

A benign totalitarian regime may be the only way to avoid the evils of the far left and the far right.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:39 | 2434985 malikai
malikai's picture

I loled.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:46 | 2435014 Bobby Lee
Bobby Lee's picture

Perhaps you will not laugh when it happens. Broad historical precedents. The military are excellent historians.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:44 | 2435417 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

The previous Greek PM sacked and rehired all three heads of the army/navy/air force within 24 hours when the crisis first broke.

Makes you wonder what happened...........

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:47 | 2436033 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

They say it's benign, but the first thing you know, the damn thing  metastasizes.

( Hey, that's Greek! )

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 21:35 | 2438093 emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

bobby lee, please cite a benign totalitarian regime?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:28 | 2434901 youngman
youngman's picture

What is funny is the investors that were "forced" to turn in their bonds for the new bonds.....will lose...while the hedge funds that bought the distressed debt won this week....the next payment will not happen..but its good to know someone won...beat the system....

 

 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:30 | 2434913 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

I am getting bored with those "the euro will blow up everything"-nonsense write-ups as this one. Politicians, bankers, and the rest of the unelected criminals involved with managing our $€ paper have shown what the answer will be: CTRL+P. Ignore the rest. The Euro currency will survice, as will a Euopean Union. Believe it or not, Europeans don't question one second the necessity of a united Europe. The discussion is about the "details" involved with such a historic project. The UK won't be part of the core of a future European Union because of their miserable food.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:45 | 2435019 Sockeye
Sockeye's picture

If you are so bored why don't you actually read the article!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:08 | 2435157 warezdog
warezdog's picture

LOL the Euro will survive, I'm guessing you mean as in it will be dug up years from now and considered trash by relic collectors, otherwise that statement gets the bonehead award for the month of May.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 11:27 | 2435688 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

<your icon - a F-35 shot down by a Mig-29?>

Warezhead. I feel compassion for ahistoric bonedogs like you are. Now listen: The dollar once was a gold backed currency. Its notes are now a trash relic sold on ebay. What is "the" dollar now? Correct, used toilet paper. The US changed the definition of "the" dollar as circumstances required. The Euro started as used toilet paper right from the beginning. It could do so because there was nothing to fear from a competitor currency. For the economically relevant core Europeans, there is no alternative to a own reserve currency. That currency has been given the name "Euro". The Europeans had to introduce their own reserve currency in the moment the US called off the Bretton woods agreement and brazenly abused the dollar as a device to loan without paying back. Countries will enter the Euro zone, countries will leave the Euro zone, in the mean time the Euro currency scheme will be adapted. It is that simple.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 11:16 | 2435627 frenzic
frenzic's picture

Well most of us do question the necessity of a monster Europe. We don't think of our neighbouring countries as friends or brothers, but as what they are neighbours. All the EU propaganda notwitstanding. Dutch hate Germans, Krauts hate French and so on. The only thing the EU had going for it was Schengen and that is about to end.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 11:32 | 2435709 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

now there's a real expert on European history. Why not try become advisor for Hillary Clinton?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:18 | 2435893 frenzic
frenzic's picture

Nonsense. Can't deny reality. Hillary can. Why do you think nationalism is on the rise?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:52 | 2435477 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Conventional wisdom is that after Greece leaves, grabs the banks, and issues a New Drachma, the Drachmna depreciates re the Euro 40-50% and the Greek people get screwed.

I have not seen one mention of the obvious next step: the Greek people set up an (illeageal of course) black market, and trade continues in Euros. Back street money changers, back street banks - the whole works - 'official' exchange rates meaningless - like VietNam in 1989 for one example - many of you probably have your own experiences with this.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:53 | 2436063 vh070
vh070's picture

Clear case of the early worm gets the foreign bank account and foreign job.  Anyone in the bank run queue is screwed.  Wonder where the politicians parked their money, Switzerland?

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