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Market Bloodbath, "Happy Birthday Mr. President" Edition

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Dow is down more than 500. The S&P is down 60. The VIX surges 35% to 32 the highest since June 2010. Implied correlation surges to the highest since last summer. ES volume surges to the highest since the flash crash. Europe is opening in 12 hours. Margin debt is near record high levels, and mutual funds have record low cash. Liquidations galore. Did we miss anything?

Cross asset Correlation: more or less 1.000

DJIA

ES

VIX

ES Volume

Oh yes. Happy birthday Mr President

 

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Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:31 | 1524805 iNull
iNull's picture

As as technical trader and EWP practicioner, I say again. This was all too predictable. Anyone who laughed at Prechter and EWP shouldn't be laughing now.

Apparently, there are not a lot of technical traders on ZH because no one has commented on the clear break in the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern on the ES volume chart above (the last chart above the deer). Anyone who trades knows this chart is 80-90% reliable. Miniumum target on the S&P is 1140. There are three nested (potential) H&S patterns, the largest dating back to 1997. If that is triggered the market goes to 0. That's not a typo. Zero.

Let me know if you have questions. I am happy to go into more detail.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:47 | 1524843 caerus
caerus's picture

not to start anything but several people here recognized the pattern...shit the NQ and YM are barely at their respective necklines...i agree with you totally but im not angry about being right...im happy maybe tech a will get some respect...but i doubt it

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:57 | 1524860 iNull
iNull's picture

Nothing started here. More blood tomorrow but a neckline retest is de rigeur. Technicals and endogenous factors trump bubblevision bullshit every time.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:04 | 1524882 caerus
caerus's picture

agreed...would love to discuss your views sometime...cheers!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:49 | 1525181 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

I didn't see the head and shoulders. I saw a chick laying on her back with that middle hump being a muffin top, which also ends badly 80%-90% of the time. The market didn't push through the neckline, it went right through her armpit. No bueno. Your insights are always welcome.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:36 | 1525298 caerus
caerus's picture

mmmm...muffin top...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 01:58 | 1525826 iNull
iNull's picture

Har de har. It's there Bol. Just look for it.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 01:58 | 1525827 iNull
iNull's picture

Har de har. It's there Bol. Just look for it.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:25 | 1525265 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I follow EW and also Daneric's charts. I incorporate the EW views into my overall investment strategy, but I incorporate other info as well. I got out of the market last year, with the exception of a bear fund for the longer term. It's been a painful 12 months, but I'm not smart enough to time this shit. I knew we'd see what we're seeing now, I just didn't know when. My bear fund has recovered 12% in the last 10 days. Another week like this one and I'll be well into in the black, with a long way to go on this dive.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:40 | 1525301 caerus
caerus's picture

shit just got started imo...tech still has to die

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:57 | 1525344 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Are we brothers separated at birth? We damn sure think alike. Nice to finally meet you.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:09 | 1525372 caerus
caerus's picture

and i you sir...cheers!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 02:24 | 1525846 iNull
iNull's picture

Good for you babe. May you live long and prosper.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 02:27 | 1525847 iNull
iNull's picture

Good for you babe. May you live long and prosper.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:16 | 1524900 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Actually, I think there are more than a few technical traders who read the site (one of whom is famous, RoboTrader - but he's not the normal op-ed) - but they rarely contribute 'classic' analysis, barring meta-commentary (if they comment at all). A lot of the comments are meta, and rely on inside jokes. What you're missing is the style of Hors de Combat - think of this as the tavern where the mercenaries of the 30 year war mingle. The next day, many could be fighting on different sides of the conflict, switch sides or even be ransoming their fellow drinkers. Some will big up their next campaign, some will keep it quiet. However, whilst here, they merely nod and digest the intel as it comes along, and add if they feel like it. Read the disclosure policy on "insider trading" by Tyler for more info - if someone mentions something, they're either hiking its margins or secretly shorting it.

Translation - State: "I think this <insert analysis> is happening, you oiks, and you're all a bunch of feeble fuckers for forgetting it" and then see the response. I don't think today came as too much a surprise to many around here.

 

There are a lot of other classes of poster as well, however. The insane, the PM bugs, the politburo hacks, the tin foilers and the trolls...

 

It's getting exciting now, two and one-half. Think of everything we've accomplished, man. Out these windows, we will view the collapse of financial history. One step closer to economic equilibrium.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:28 | 1524925 iNull
iNull's picture

An entertaining reply. As a nubee I guess I shouldn't paint with such a broad brush, especially since I do not read every post. Will try and tune in more to the subtleties.

And yes the trolls and tin foilers drive me to distraction as well.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:40 | 1525008 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTsFOqSaub8

 

You're not getting it yet...

 

You will, and when you do, you'll realise the freedom it gives when you watch the plays...[Hint: when any poster gives a link, they fall into three categories - pure citation [i.e. information],  the ideological [opinion], and the meta. The ideological are sometimes interesting, the meta... are always funny, if you get the joke,]

 

For a newbie, here's a freebie - the link is Watchmen [Alan Moore, anarchist, critique of the Western world], where the Comedian ['super-hero' who represents the best/worst of the 'American Dream' and who killed JFK, active Vietnam vet: aka, he represents the old military-industrial complex driving the US economy] is entering old age ["for a guy of 56, he was built like a line backer"] and is assassinated by Ozymandias [metrosexual new hero, business leader, made $billions from merchandising 'super heroes', represents the 'entrepreneur' of silicon valley, also happens to be about to destroy the world] ...

And the quote is: ""It's a joke. It's all a joke. Mother forgive me"?"

 

Map that onto the current US experience, then come back to me. Life is complex, and I wallow in irony, babe.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:31 | 1524934 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

+1

There is definately a lot of noise in the tavern, but it is the best tavern on the block, bar none.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:47 | 1524958 r101958
r101958's picture

I guess I would pay a lot more attention to technical charts, etc., if I didn't think the market was 95% manipulated by TPTB.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:43 | 1525170 caerus
caerus's picture

too much to say in so small a space...there are economic laws just as there are physical laws...any attempt to subvert either is at worst foolish and at best naive...either way it is futile...

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:32 | 1525287 r101958
r101958's picture

Yes, and hence, we are where we are eh?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:44 | 1525317 caerus
caerus's picture

that is a tautology...i see it this way

1.  the markets (and hence human beings) obey no law ----- then why invest?  you'd be better off playing roulette (a game which does obey the laws of mathematics)

2.  the markets (and hence human beings, like the rest of the universe) obey some (granted, at present unknown law) ---- invest/trade and look for some order in the apparent chaos

i find the present situation in economic theory not unlike the situation in physics before newton...intuitively wise individuals felt that there must be order...it took newton to prove it

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:28 | 1524806 css1971
css1971's picture

I love the greed, the hubris and the stupidity of our politicians.

I love the psychopathic fraudulent scum who run our banks.

I love Ponzi. He's my Hero!

 

I love the petty, small minded vanity of it all. They're all just so predictable.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:30 | 1524808 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

I think real price discovery is coming.  My telegraph says no more QE.  Maybe even a return to "real" free markets one day.

Looks to me like .gov may actually be getting out of the way to let the markets work.  I know, I am a dreamer, but hey, thats what the telegraph says.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:39 | 1524822 mendigo
mendigo's picture

if QE2 even worked a little or at least wasn't such an obvious joke, they would undoubtedly attempt a QE3

there will be some pointless, money wasting action but it won't be QE

after all, somebody's got to do something

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:35 | 1524816 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

How about some critical thinking instead of the eternal "It's all the negro's fault" meme.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:51 | 1524845 nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

Sort of like "It's all Bush's fault". 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:59 | 1524873 mynhair
mynhair's picture

It's all Nixon's fault.

Baseline, bitchez!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:01 | 1524979 jomama
jomama's picture

actually, that sort of thinking wasn't even on my radar until you brought it up.  those who are somewhat aware know that your 'negro' doppelgänger is just a puppet anyway.  but thanks for making an ass out of u and me.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:03 | 1525334 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Go fuck yourself fucking partisan troll. This isn't about fucking political parties - it is systematic. It doesn't fucking matter who of the partisan scheme is president - you'll get "expotential shit" whatever you fucking vote for. It's not about parties - it's about sanity, sustainability, efficiency and fairness - all four things that are absent of popular politics.

Yes, that's a lot of swearing and use of the f-word.... doesn't make it any less true. Go fuck yourself ideologues - YOU supported this mess! Suck it up and take the blame you deserve... or start evolving by learning from mistakes.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:38 | 1524821 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Blast from the Past:

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/

Congratulations on your huge success TD, you are and absolute machine!

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:51 | 1524960 jomama
jomama's picture

ah, memories.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:23 | 1525407 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Did this site open 20090728?  Now that's a birthday card I'd love to sign.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:50 | 1525468 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

A couple days prior maybe, but yeah.

Tyler is a fucking one of a kind real OG Gangsta, and I will just bet he is out having drinks celebrating his success tonight.  There was suspiscion when the site went mainstream from blogspot he was bought out by one of the investment houses (GS? as TD had a particular distaste to their MO) to water down the information.  He stomped all over that with unending data streams for the masses.  Covering HFT from the beginning including IMO leading GS shutting down their DirectEdge program.  In the beginning the running joke was this guy never slept.  For non financial majors like myself he opened my eyes to what a bloomberg terminal offers with keen insight and highly relevant market data like 24/7.

Cheers TD!  You are a truly a hero among men!

Where the hell is Marla?

CD is suspisciously missing tonight also.  Hmmm.  You guys out drinkin?

Let us in on that IPO next year!

 

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 23:08 | 1525517 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

That would certainly explain CD's absence.  Tyler may also still be working on the site problems too. It is still unstable for me as of 2307 hours.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:37 | 1524824 GCT
GCT's picture

I was prepared and was not in the markets and have not even tried to step back in.  I talked to friends and tried to warn them and some even called me nuts.  Most of you are enjoying the rout.  I am happy I was smart enough to wake up to this shit people are being fed.  Red pill I guess.  But while some celebrate alot of good people took it in the ass today because of our politicians and the main stream media feeding them lies and telling them there was nothing wrong.  Today TV and politicians defrauded the American people.  I did shed a tear for our country. 

Those that I warned deserve what they got.  Whats even worse people will still believe their bullshit. 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:47 | 1524833 iNull
iNull's picture

I did everything I could to warn friends and family this was coming. I even warned my doctor. Only two people agreed with me. One ploughed ahead with his investments and real estate purchases saying "he had faith in America." Total blue pill.

Long story short. The people who "took it up the ass today" already had their head firmly planted there.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:01 | 1524870 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

I have faith that if .gov will quit trying to manipulate the markets (all markets) that a bottom will come and REAL growth will eventually resume.  I have zero faith that Keynesian Economics works as shown over the last couple of years.  The sooner they get out of the way and allow real price discovery the sooner a real bottom will come.  They instead decided to rob the responsible (savers) to give to the irresponsible (debtors) all to save the powerful.  I disagree with those who think MadMax is the next step. Once stocks revert to mean, I am buying.

 

Once a bottom comes, small business will be the driver of job creation.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:02 | 1525061 Argentinian Moment
Argentinian Moment's picture

I once (early 2000's) spent considerable energy warning others. I stopped for two reasons: 1) I was becoming a pariah, 2) I realized these people could be a perfect contrary indicator for when it is safe to get back out of gold.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:55 | 1524858 caerus
caerus's picture

one friend of mine (baby with another on the way) told me to give him a call "when the world is gonna end"

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:27 | 1525417 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

I do no feel sorry for him, but I do for his children.  As a father my number one priority in life is to protect and provide for my children.  My children will not starve, and they will be protected.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:23 | 1525412 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

An economic collapse will not get rid of the fascists.  In fact it may make them more powerful.  The collapse is not what keeps me up at night.  It is what the oligarchs try to build out of the collapse that does.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:46 | 1524827 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:49 | 1524837 Garbage Can Ray
Garbage Can Ray's picture

Hey Pussies, Just BTFD...errr....I mean crash! Tyler, can you kindly stop it with that fucking deer? I just lost 6%. Just trying to make a little coin...even though I am firmly in the Armageddon camp, couldn't help chasing a little beta. Finally, the market does what it should do, and I am as long as John Holmes! Don't worry for me, it ain't my money. I am just a 27 year-old alcoholic. Hopefully it will bounce back so I can GTFO (get the fuck out y'all). Tyler, cut it out with the fucking deer...please...

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:01 | 1524876 Highrev
Highrev's picture

Hyperbole is tiring indeed, it undermines credibility, and is not becoming of ZH at all.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:07 | 1524883 iNull
iNull's picture

This is Fight Club, not Oxford Debate Club.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:31 | 1525284 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

8th Rule bitch(ez)

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:55 | 1524859 Highrev
Highrev's picture

Did we miss anything?

 Oh, nothing really; like mentioning the current technical situation and putting things in perspective by talking about whether we’re in the middle of a crash or just at a selling extreme. That’s all.

 

;-o

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/sp-goes-red-year-its-about-time#comment-1518350 

 

BTW: with “Cross asset Correlation: more or less 1.000”, why not more zeros just for fun? Or fewer? Or just 1:1? ;-)

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:01 | 1524868 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

White House:

Thank you for the birthday wishes.  We will be sure to convey your thoughts to the President. The President is currently unavailable as he is attending one of his $35,000/plate birthday fundraisers, uh, I mean celebrations and posing for pictures at $10,000 each.  Thank you.

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:59 | 1524872 caerus
caerus's picture

komrade kramer says BUY! BUY! BUY!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:13 | 1524874 caerus
caerus's picture

also quoting yeats line he prob read here

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:07 | 1524881 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

You all make me laugh, you're so bearish you probably can't see the sun rises every single day! YES, I am bullish on the US stock market (and there won't be any QE3) and the US economy. It is still a jobless recovery but what you all do not see -- or more precisely, do not want to see -- is that the worst is behind us, not ahead of us like all you doomsayers are constantly warning. That's it from me on this topic, will work on my elite fund piece today and enjoy myself......

Leo 5 15 2011

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:19 | 1524904 iNull
iNull's picture

I'm guilty of being an "uber-bear," but not to the extent that I ignore the dark castle on the hill. I acknowledge that BerFrankenanke and Igor Geithner can make the market corspe sit up on the gurney, but ultimately the monster destroys the town. Das is mein Weltanschauung.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:25 | 1524919 caerus
Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:10 | 1524887 MrJingles
MrJingles's picture

 

Stay thirsty my friends.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:11 | 1524890 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

High Plains Drifter Ya that's the ticket and chicks for free.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:19 | 1524908 the PTB
the PTB's picture

Nothing like numbers to reveal the truth. BTW, the deer in the spot light is spot on.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:35 | 1524945 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

that deer is robo or leo, same difference for those two guys...........

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:19 | 1524909 KeyserSoze
KeyserSoze's picture

Is this the nail that makes certain that QE3 will be on its way in the next 12 months?

Somebody with some genuine knowledge answer me. 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:39 | 1525300 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

To QE or not to QE, that is the QuEstion

Whether 'tis nobler in the mind

To suffer the slings and arrows

of outrageous monetary policy

Or to take up Adjustable Rate MortgageS

against a sea of troubles

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:20 | 1524913 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

I am starting to look naked - just starting.

one of my 401K accounts is in preciousmetals miners, which is still good.

The other I moved from Money markets to Growth Large Cap recently - which is now RED.

I thank the Good Lord in days like this because all my personal money is in physical Gold.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:51 | 1525041 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Nothing like the physical. Paper is good for ass wipe and gambling.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:30 | 1525429 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

It'll also help to keep you warm.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:32 | 1524936 Ag1761
Ag1761's picture

T, I think you should do a poll, all ZHers to vote whether US or EU to go down first - pick a date and who picks the closest date and the first to fall gets dinner with either Bernanke or Ms Lagarde, restaurante of choice - suggestions anyone?

Well, I'm assuming the latest IMF puppet will not get the sack (not by a winning ZHer on the poll) but I refer to her abuse of power having being in bed with Président de la France and 285 million euro state skim. First they got DSK, now they are going for old Chrissie. This soap opera is fabulouus, what next, unmask that deer!

For the record, I think EURO will outlive the USD but it will be ugly.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:36 | 1525439 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

I'm only beginning student here, but the Chinese are propping up the Euro Zone.  Sure, the Chinese have their own problems, but I do not see anyone other than the oligarchy of banksters propping us up.  

My vote would be for the US to collapse first, and that makes more strategic sense as well--America is a major road block to the fascists' global plan.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:41 | 1524937 Ag1761
Ag1761's picture

Sorry Double post, web running slow today or it's maybe US Carriers circling the server farm in Malta, ready to take down ZH with an EM weapon.....

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:36 | 1524941 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Ok, srs question, from a 3rd party who is phoning me panicking at the moment:

"If" someone had approx E2,000,000 in Santander (ye, I know - E40 bil housing bubble that's only devalued by 10-15% when Ireland has done 50% already) is it time to move to SFr? SFr is having issues as well, and looking green about the gills over being forced to take on reserve(ish) status. They were smart and took advice to liquidate stocks to miss all of this (my red pill trumped their blue pill adviser), but now are doing the "flight to safety" routine. I'm tempted to tell them to sink it into drugs for Greece (http://greece.greekreporter.com/2011/08/02/decriminalization-of-drug-us/) but I doubt this will go down well...

PMs are sadly a no-go, since I doubt you can get that kind of delivery in the Euro-zone as we speak, and they require 'flight mobility'. Land is usual, but there's nothing in EU that's safe (really safe) from government at this point. My feeling currently is to move to bank in Brazil and cash in on multiple nice government investment incentives for bringing in hard cash at the moment, but interested to see options.

 

And no.. Thailand lady-boys isn't suiting this customer...

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:40 | 1525004 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

FDIC insures deposits up to 250k US per depositor per bank, this includes foreign citizens.  The Euro is still relatively strong against the dollar, and particularly if the rout progresses, the dollar will strengthen vs Euro as it did today.  So he will be buying the cross at close to the bottom and will most likely see some appreciation in Euro terms.  I do believe the Euro's days are numbered.  I do not believe that is the case with the dollar.  The world cannot dump the reserve currency at the drop of a hat.  So if he is really seeking safety (absolute) that would be my reccomendation.  Go to bankrate.com for a list of Banks.  Around 1% interest is good in the US right now, particularly for with the 'free' insurance. 

Or more simply buy treasuries but there is more fluctuation in price there. 

I went to 95% cash as disclosed here a week ago. 

I am not sure about brazillian banks, sorry.  I thought Brazil was trying to dissuade international investment as it drives up the value of the Real which is overvalued.  What are these incentives you mention?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:11 | 1525091 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

E2,000,000 is about $2.800,000. So... they're really not interested in 1% interest. They're looking for a solid [i.e. exists, unlike China] company to invest into, and probably move towards when dividends and so forth get higher.

Brazil is offering some nice incentives for foreign capital in its desire to move China > Brazil in terms of macro economic policy, esp. in terms of high capital investment (which E2 mil just gets into). You need a local partner to avoid the  penalties - i.e. you're sinking investment into stocks / capital investment under 51% control, and this isn't  buying into bonds [http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-24/brazilian-bonds-safer-than-defa...]. Bonds are ok, however, with smaller sums like this [E2mil] then direct investment / shareholding doesn't tip the penalties, I think.

He is a she, btw ;p

And yes, since last week, I have urged go cash as a short term protection - it has worked for them, but they're so small fry, that the entire show is freeking them out. Still: saving people from -500 point share cascade is no bad thing.

 

 

Disclosure - 2 bottles of wine, after 3 weeks not drinking, at this point of the night, all of the above might be dribble. I even smoked some ciggies, which was dumb, but hey - I saved X million tonight, due to ZH + other sites. Gotta congratulate yourself sometimes!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:50 | 1525185 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

I typically keep my cards pretty close, and I am no expert, but for "safety" here goes:

If she can tolerate SOME risk I would maybe diversify among best in show EM sovereigns, but go heavy US treasuries (where the smart money is headed at present IMO).  Deflation is real, and if QE ends as I expect the market is telling us it will (all the while begging for more) it is here

I know I will be junked all to hell by the gold bugs and the hyperinflation camp, but the reason I think even gold is nearing a top is deflation is here.  They have masked it for a couple of years with relentless FOMC manipulation and money printing, but the Keynesians themselves are waking up to the fact that the tail will not wag the dog.  Don't be surprised when you see longer durations of the short end go negative as the fight to simply maintain overwhelms the quest for returns.  I do not see stocks at present as "safety" as your friend claims to be seeking.  Alpha obviously exists in EM stocks, but on this side of the pond dollar appreciation will put a dent in returns and is not "safety".  My 2.

Scratch most of that if QE is announced. I think you know where to stick the money if that happens.

Deflation is here bitchez....

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:29 | 1525272 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

My people are risk adverse to US stuff - EU investors cannot stomach the recent theatre and nor should they. Simply put - the Russians, EUs and so on don't trust your plays here. She was looking at SWF's (esp Nordic) but it (rightly) worried at exposure. Given the ECB moves and hostile moves towards SWF I can't disagree - but I put E80,000 of my own into Singapore because no-one can touch that shit]. The plays toward Norway's SWF and so on... sigh. Kill them all...

I urged 100% flight to gold when it was sold by G. Brown [fuck yes, I understand why, but... URGGHH] and had a £1.37 mil investor on it at £397. They balked, and bought companies / land and only £457k in gold - arrrrrgh. That investment alone would be worth ... dsssfdggg!. Yes, they're happy, but... !!]

 

QEIII is happening, no doubt about it - however, it is politically motivated, and I'm facing people who cannot get the next TARP.

 

And yes - savvy investors have seen 2008 TARP, and want to know how they (like blond bimbo x2 wives of JP Morgue) can get a slice - my only issue is how illegal it is going to be to grab $250 million. Still... not seeing the housewives prosecuted, so.... game on.

 

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:40 | 1525302 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Our conversation has morphed from seeking safety to seeking returns.  From your friend to the Russians.  I am not certain as you seem to be QE3 is a certainty.  I do not rule it out, but even TPTB know it produces nothing of value except time.  They have provided enough cushion to allow US business to stockpile cash to the ceiling.  Training wheels have to come off now, and that is what the action in the markets says to me.  Deflation? or QE which inflates everything we need to get past this depression?  I think we are seeing the market react to the reality.  No more QE.  Accomodative policy, IE twist sure, but no more outright purchases IMO.  Sorry but I am out of my comfort zone at this point.  Good Luck.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:56 | 1525495 technovelist
technovelist's picture

If physical isn't possible, I'd recommend CEF or the same company's gold trust (GTU). They actually get audited on a regular basis and state very specifically in their annual report that they don't encumber their metals in any way.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:40 | 1524948 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

this website is seriously fucked up today !

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:38 | 1524949 MrPoopypants
MrPoopypants's picture

Not to gloat, but...

My volatility play (TVIX) made 40% today.  Just wow.  Should have bought more than I did.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:36 | 1524952 Mad Cow
Mad Cow's picture

@Sacrilege a suggestion, Disable as many bells and whistles (modules) on the site as possible for the time being to avoid server meltdowns. We don't want to miss the show! Thanks!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:51 | 1524961 saulysw
saulysw's picture

Is this the start of a market waterfall event?

Time to dust off those "DOW 10,000!" caps? ... again?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:53 | 1524966 chump666
chump666's picture

Asian markets are going to be decimated next two hrs, TSY yield collpase point to US recession overkill.  watching/trading FX next two hrs

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:54 | 1524969 chump666
chump666's picture

Asian markets are going to be decimated next two hrs, TSY yield collpase point to US recession overkill.  watching/trading FX next two hrs

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:58 | 1524974 lawton
lawton's picture

Well it shows we will have plenty of buyers for America's trash debt if things are allowed to collapse to their fair value...

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:02 | 1524988 mt paul
mt paul's picture

DOW -512.68

badger whacking 101

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:25 | 1525027 Boston
Boston's picture

Tyler, AH just made the Nightly News with Brian Williams (lead story):

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/ns/nightly_news/#44026512

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:46 | 1525038 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Congratulations Again TD!  Your hard work is being recognized even in MSM now!

I smell a ZeroHedge IPO in the next year or so. 

So, uhhh Tyler, when the Road Show starts, will you give us a ground floor opportunity to get in?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:53 | 1525048 Boston
Boston's picture

Edit:  AH should be ZH (obviously)

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:05 | 1525362 buzzsaw99
Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:42 | 1525451 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Thats bitchin bitchez.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:41 | 1525031 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Totally unrelated, but I think this site is getting jammed, Tyler.  Problems all day.  I guess the elites want to keep the knowing prols from gloating.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:50 | 1525040 caerus
caerus's picture

brian williams called today "dark thursday" ...meh...

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:51 | 1525042 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

I'm new here. This site found me in March(ish) and I could not be more entertained or fascinated. I've been to the coin shop a few times, The lead shop a few times. (I'm a lowly machinist)

Question: How do you convince your wife that her 401K will not be worth the Chinese monitor it's viewed on? Take the "future hit" and let's get physical? All of that hot-air-conditioning did not take out the snarls. 

Anyone?

p.s. I make (mostly) socio-political music in as many genres as the economists make shit up. from scratch.

http://www.soundcloud.com/humboldtlagoon

Thanks, ZH and contributors for keeping it real.

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:36 | 1525290 kwality
kwality's picture

nice tunes.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:41 | 1525403 Rynak
Rynak's picture

In an ideal world, the answer to your question would be straight-forwards: The gov decides your pension, but YOU control the physical goods you own.... the gov may be able to say "oh well, i just decide that i owe you less", but neither govs nor central banks can just say "i decide about what you're holding in your cold dead hands".

Sadly, it's not that simple. Sure, it may be that easy in the longterm, but in the midterm, you're facing the idiocy, that is paper prices (ETFs) influencing physical prices (what you're holding in your hands).... plus, there's the scare that the gov may just forbid that that you trade what you own, on official public market.

What i'm trying to get to is this: In the end, only what you control (and may even via illegal means trade with others) matters..... but in the midterm, the gov, banks and regulators can scare you a lot.

Perhaps, the biggest argument would be this: If the cash you're saving at your bank account devalued 20% in at most 10 years, then what will it be worth in 30 years? And even considering gov/bank/regulator interference, can you really be worse off in the longterm with physical? And what there the potential of you being better off?

Bottom line: Stop being concerned about IF you lose longterm - rather, judge chances HOW MUCH you may lose longterm.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:43 | 1525454 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Cash it out and use it to prep.  You didn't mention how much it is, but I would suspect you would be better off putting it into supplies, food, etc.

Prepare for the day when your money buys nothing in other words.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:56 | 1525050 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Thank goodness for Mr. McGinley and his Dynamic - he is a genius.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:17 | 1525053 caerus
caerus's picture

these keynesians are some stubborn bastards...i like the "well what would have happened without the stimulus?" angle...

 

 

logical fallacies - burden of proof

Burden of Proof

Burden of Proof

proponent of stimulus - "you cannot prove that the economy would have been worse had QEx not been implemented, therefore QEx was a good thing!"

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:03 | 1525063 Tunga
Tunga's picture

"I sure could use a little mustard on my french fried POTATOS mmm hmmm."

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:10 | 1525099 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

How quickly people forget their peas...

 

 

And BLACK EYED PEAS at that.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:46 | 1525462 nmewn
nmewn's picture

He did a "hard pivot" from jobs jobs jobs to a campaign fundraiser today.

The country's in the very best of hands ;-)

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:04 | 1525071 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

$USD still the KING after all, check USDCAD and
even AUDUSD. The only smart guy here, that I can remembers one that
said he sold all metals and now in cash.. Guess what
Silver tanked today same as stocks.. Anyways, I think
Massive coordinated QE could take place, EZ definitely
need QE, as their banks are very tight on liquidity
Watching USDCHF and EURUSD.
Money has no way to go. Everything dropped today..
This Market already factoring in Negative Jobs number
tomorrow, already in the cards... Heck, USDCAD at
0.98 already, Green light for QE.. Dollar is already
to high, from optimism to recession in 5 days, from
dollar collapse to "dollar too strong" in 1 day,
learning everyday :)

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 23:25 | 1525553 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Yup mister troll-trackrecord sockpuppet - "dollar is king".

For those who want to check the "history" of this member:

http://www.zerohedge.com/users/moneywise/track

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:05 | 1525073 boeing747
boeing747's picture

I will back to market when Dow hits 10K and Oil stable below 70. Meanwhile Ben is ordering large quan of papars and inks so when Obam and Congress knocking his basement door he can start printing right away.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:09 | 1525086 razorthin
razorthin's picture

approaching the final phase before the hyperinflationary spiral.  a wonderful oxymoron befitting a bunch of elitist morons.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:03 | 1525075 mendolover
mendolover's picture

The man in lieu of the US president could hardly ask for a better birthday present going by his agenda.  Good luck and God bless everyone!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:07 | 1525085 Slap That Taco
Slap That Taco's picture

This may be a dumbass question, but can Bernanke do a QE3 after all the budget fuss?  I guess one hand doesn't necessarily have to wash the other.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:29 | 1525135 MacGruber
MacGruber's picture

He sure can, the Fed is independent by design. The only affect that the Treasury can have on the Fed is the return on the bonds it holds, but that is relatively minor.

The real question is what the Fed has left for QE. With yields at record lows on treasuries QE lacks the main sought after effect of driving down interest rates - the other being to print money into economy (which is really just giving ZIRP money to TBTF banks as play money to up bonuses).

The one disaster on the horizon is that QE3 comes in the form of outright stock purchases. You wanna see a fixed market go nutty, just have a big purchaser (The Bernanke) randomly select $10B a week in securities.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:10 | 1525088 boeing747
boeing747's picture

Someone is attacking ZH website? ZH down many times lately. I think QE3 will come on early Sept or early Oct. Enjoy 'Great Short' till next time.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:13 | 1525100 Bear
Bear's picture

People we're trying to see what was really happening, maybe they got tired (or scared) at CNBC

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:43 | 1525146 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

No, you're seeing what happens when major MSM sites direct link to ZH.

Remember: ZH is TINY BEANS up to now; major MSM sites such as the Telegraph are sending millions of hits here.Tyler has already said #1 server got fried. I did try n warn him about upcoming traffic, but meh!

 

 

Addendum: ZH has (allegedly) friendly Anonymous viewers, and Lulzsec (allegedly) like it as well. Attacks will be government sponsored only. You tell the truth, the good guys will look out for you, Allegedly. Ahem. Julian Assange thinks ZH is cool as well.

 

p.s. If you're not aware enough - recently, a major hacking zone was "outed" that spanned 15 years, and multiple sites. Guess what? It was a government (ahem.. I like chinese food) and had cracked more than a thousand sites that Anonymous and Lulzsec have pointed to. At this point, you need to grow the fuck up, and side with the lulz and realise - if they can hack it, OTHER MOTHERFUCKERS HAVE ALREADY. Thus, you need to piss all over the "HARD CORE" FBI arrests, and tell them - Grow up, get a clue, and fucking arrest the right people. The right people being... Chinese. /twats.

 

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/operation_shady_rat_may_be_the_bigg...

 

Yes... FBI.. arrest teenagers... ignore military industrial spying... because the media is your friend. Fuck. That. Shit.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:13 | 1525236 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Birds of a feather my friend, Birds of a feather

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:53 | 1525326 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Having spent a summer with an underground Moscow group of hackers, no. And no, there was no phising or CC scams etc etc. Pure code joy. No money, but I did get to see the NASA launcher codes.

If you'd like me to explain why the FBI and so on are so fucking retarded to be untrue (OH HAI! WE IS LIKE ARRESTING THE TOP 1000 DDOS THAT PAYPAL GAVE US) when I can accurately link to over 50k active paypal fraudsters and phishers, then...Or wait.. I could link to the #25 reasons why PAYPAL is actively involved with fraud.

Oh. Wait. Political reason = anyone who used LOIC on them

Economic reason = we're fucking retarded and cannot chase the $50 million / year scams that use our site.

 

And....

 

 

Fuck them, and their rules. Next time, expect a HFT algo to rape any and all bids on Ebay.

 

For. Teh. Win.

;.;

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:11 | 1525096 Bear
Bear's picture

I don't see Leo's blog today?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:46 | 1525179 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

Leo is crying over his fucking solar stocks and his newfound advice to buy Argentina wineries.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 23:35 | 1525578 jomama
jomama's picture

fapping to Krugman spreads would be my guess.  no pun intended.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:13 | 1525101 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Barry's re-election campaign:

I leave Washington for just one day and the markets go to pieces.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:13 | 1525102 Dakota Thunder
Dakota Thunder's picture

If Obama comes out tomorrow and says he will repeal Obamacare, the market will go up 1500 points.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:19 | 1525114 Pontificating B...
Pontificating Buffoon's picture

get yer guns while you still can, bitchez!!!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:18 | 1525115 Pinktip
Pinktip's picture

So all majors down, USD up 74 to75.5.........coincidence? 

Their all priced in dollars and the dollar moved first.

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:28 | 1525129 Pinktip
Pinktip's picture

http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

 

This chart says it all..........everything down except dollar. 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:15 | 1525243 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

And what this tells us is.....

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:21 | 1525122 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

It's a good likeness, but the ears aren't THAT big!!

 

Guess he'll call up hank paulsen and ask him what to do now...

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:28 | 1525127 4realmoney
4realmoney's picture

Between this and the new "print money ceiling" QE3 (and 4 and 5 and infinity) is guaranteed. The next few days could be a great time to stock up on Krugerrands.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:31 | 1525138 Head_Shots_Work
Head_Shots_Work's picture

I have an article from the June 24, 2011 USA Today (written by crackheads for dopeheads) "Market's slump not too troubling". Glad I didn't listen to these bastards (but then - I never did - just needed something to wipe with at the time). So, is it time to get back in? hahahhahhahahaaahhhahhahh!!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:32 | 1525139 Head_Shots_Work
Head_Shots_Work's picture

I have an article from the June 24, 2011 USA Today (written by crackheads for dopeheads) "Market's slump not too troubling". Glad I didn't listen to these bastards (but then - I never did - just needed something to wipe with at the time). So, is it time to get back in? hahahhahhahahaaahhhahhahh!!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:29 | 1525140 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Hehe.

For better or worse i went back in today, but only half my spec funds. I bet i can pick up a few pennies in front of this bulldozer. If not then you all get to laugh at me for trying to catch a falling knife.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:35 | 1525152 Head_Shots_Work
Head_Shots_Work's picture

Yours must be as big as basketballs. But I wish you luck- at least you aren't like the sheeple who are just going to wake up tomorrow and wonder WTF? when they see it in the paper. Course - then they'll change the page to find out who won american idiot.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:00 | 1525201 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

I went all in during the past two weeks in PM junior and senior miners.  What a roller coaster ride. Today my PM stocks got creamed , and all I could think was ' YEAH  a buying opportunity of a lifetime ' , silver for $6 oz and gold for $400 oz.  Good luck everyone, yours, Maverick

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:19 | 1525253 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Respect is worth something.  IE calling out long or short x before the market speaks.  Robo always forgets to tell us his positions until after the close.

I am calling black friday, but have very little riding right now.  Not a time to be a hero gents.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:35 | 1525155 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

What would have been interesting is to see how much the markets would have tanked if the vix index would have been at 70 like in 2008.

 

Also, is there any way to buy some kind of VIX ETF?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:20 | 1525256 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Absolutely there is

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:21 | 1525258 Diablo
Diablo's picture

long vix: VXX

short vix: XIV

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:24 | 1525263 kwality
kwality's picture

there is, but i don't recommend it.  bad contango.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:40 | 1525157 Reptil
Reptil's picture

REVERSE BANK RUN BITCHEZZ!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-04/bny-mellon-sets-13-basis-point-charge-on-clients-excess-cash-deposits.html

 

I think we're at a tipping point. clearly uncharted waters. I imagine a pitchdark forest, and a lot of very hungry bears.

Insanity all around. Schooltrips to Fukushima, artists painting burning banks, and get picked up by the popo for terrorism.

That's it. I'm moving to Mars.

:-)

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:39 | 1525160 Gibu The Great
Gibu The Great's picture

Maybe the Fed will buy all of the unemployed.  I predict +infinity on the NFP tomorrow.

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:58 | 1525196 Shooting Shark
Shooting Shark's picture

Off-topic: Gibu, do our wives know each other from the old country?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:47 | 1525172 hunglow
hunglow's picture

If it's brown, it's down...

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:49 | 1525183 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

I want the good old days of the U.S. debt ceiling debates back. You know, last week. Things were so much better way back then.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:47 | 1525184 underpants
underpants's picture

Just curious-  anyone here know if chuck palahniuk ever mention or read this site?

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:37 | 1525192 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Frankenstein's creator, Percy Bysshe Shelley celebrates a Birthday today also was born August 4th, 1792.

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/percy-bysshe-shelley-poet-is-...

 

http://www.nationaltheatrelondon.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Frankens...

What a coincidence!

 

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 23:53 | 1525622 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

Mary Shelley (née Mary Wollstonecraft Godwin; 30 August 1797 – 1 February 1851) was a British novelist, short story writer, dramatist, essayist, biographer, and travel writer, best known for her Gothic novel Frankenstein: or, The Modern Prometheus (1818). She also edited and promoted the works of her husband, the Romantic poet and philosopher Percy Bysshe Shelley. Her father was the political philosopher William Godwin, and her mother was the philosopher and feminist Mary Wollstonecraft.

. . .ahhh, but as we all know, November Spawned a Monster. . .

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 01:18 | 1525778 HL Shancken
HL Shancken's picture

Sweetness, I was only joking when I said by rights you should be bludgeoned in your bed...

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:58 | 1525195 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Youch. How many months of QE just got wiped out? See what happens when the printing presses stop. Bernankster just taught us a lesson.  /snark

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:56 | 1525197 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

This would be an excellent time for a false flag terror attack.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 23:54 | 1525627 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

10th anniversary not far off, and FEMA's picked 11.9.11 for their nationwide "drill"

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:04 | 1525218 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Pensions?  Negative real rates in bonds or negative returns on the year in stocks?  How 'bout both? 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:08 | 1525222 dot_bust
dot_bust's picture
  1. Congress raises the debt ceiling.
  2. Bernanke withdraws liquidity from the market, making it plummet over 500 points.
  3. Bernanke announces QE III.

Any questions?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:07 | 1525227 Goldtoothchimp09
Goldtoothchimp09's picture

isn't this about the time they trot out Buffet to say "Buy stocks, I did" ... then he stumbles over to his quotron machine to check quotes and he pisses his old man diaper and starts crying out for his mommy?!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:35 | 1525259 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

Well they did next best thing. They trotted out Dave (payoff every debt you have ) Ramsey on Cnn to mug the folk.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:12 | 1525241 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Cheney's heart would be warming over all this, if he had a heart...

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:13 | 1525245 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

If they are going to do QE3, they better get moving because this sucker is turning into a depressionary death spiral.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:24 | 1525261 pan
pan's picture

QE3 bitchez!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:26 | 1525267 Juan Wild
Juan Wild's picture

Cognitive Dissonance bitchez!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!