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Market Bloodbath, "Happy Birthday Mr. President" Edition
The Dow is down more than 500. The S&P is down 60. The VIX surges 35% to 32 the highest since June 2010. Implied correlation surges to the highest since last summer. ES volume surges to the highest since the flash crash. Europe is opening in 12 hours. Margin debt is near record high levels, and mutual funds have record low cash. Liquidations galore. Did we miss anything?
Cross asset Correlation: more or less 1.000
DJIA
ES
VIX
ES Volume
Oh yes. Happy birthday Mr President
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Where the hell is he anyways?
this is bullish for ratings...
and gold is down 15 bucks which is less than 1%. Holding up well. Does not mean it will not play catch up with the rest of the market and dump short term but amazing action with the dollar much higher. Goes to show how broken the markets are. Still wanting real money.
Will admit my miners took a big dump today. When this is close to over will add again. Sold 0. That is it. Do not do stocks otherwise.
So what? The market is down 10% but stocks like Chipotle are only off a few bucks and is still trading at $313.00 with it's insane P/E. Linked-in is trading over $100 again. After hours Priceline is up over $47.
QE1 and 2 doubled and tripled the values of so many stocks that we need a total collapse losing $100s of dollars per share just to get back to reasonable valuations.
Netflix needs to drop to somewhere around $50 to make me a buyer. The great Ponzi has made people believe that corporations with extremely poor business models run by idiots are somehow worth billion dollar valuations.
This sell-off means nothing, absolutely nothing. Someone who bought just about any BS momentum stock in 2010 can still sell off their shares for double what they paid. Sorry my friends but that is not the definition of a market in crisis.
CMG is on the wrong side of its own right shoulder...notice the big ramp up from 270 where the smart money pumped
full disclosure...really, really short CMG
I'm surprised you didn't pull out the "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself" quote, adr. How much are you down? Don't worry, there will be a bounce (which, unfortunately, you will mistake for a renewal of the uptrend and into which you'll commit fresh money that you'll never see again). But really, don't worry.
You sound like the financial analyst that told me today that this is just "daily fluctuations and human emotions."
.
The market is below March 2009 lows, priced in gold. The "up" market was an illusion priced in debased USD.
Wondering why this is the President's fault? I recall he opened with Boehner with $4T cuts, including the entitlement programs on the table, asking to raise the debt celing to last until 2013 and close some basically minor tax loopholes.
I think it's more the Republicans who are responsible what we got. Republicans looked a gift horse in the mouth and bargained it down to what we got.
I don't think spending cuts are what you pull out of your hat in such a down economy. Yes, government needs to be downsized. First, do everything you can to get the economy humming (and don't give the money to the F#@king bankers! (Bush TARP) d'oh! Give it to someone who will spend it right then, like the masses). THEN cut AND save for the next rainy day. Everyone making money, pitching in, is a lot better than everyone sitting at home, no one pitching in and defaulting on everything.
For those that say 'government should be run like a business' - I think those were Dubya's famous words (not that he knew anything about running a business). For those who say it should be run like a household, let's play that game:
Breadwinner loses his job, wife still working. They cut back on a lot of things, but everyone says no! We should cut more jobs! So the wife also loses her job. Maybe they can get gigs flipping burgers to replace some of $120k of income. NOW where you at, genius? Same place the US is at - no income, lots of promised outgo.
And then with the FAA, hey - let's lay off another 50,000 mostly private industry jobs and go on vacation for a month. Ain't life grand?
Yes, Yes, I know - cut size of government. What nobody seems to be putting into their calculators are all of the private sector jobs that deal with the government. So, you cut one government job, you may well be putting 2 or 3 more into those breadlines (if we still had breadlines).
For those who say all this dead weight should start their own businesses - really? Most people are workers, not business owners, for a reason - they don't have the smarts it takes, or the wherewithall to start a business, no matter how small. Won't get the education, either, the way education is going in the US. If perchance they did all have the smarts to start their own business - where would companies get their workers from then?
FWIW, I think both parties now officially suck; have sucked for a long time, now just trying to see who can be the suckiest. It's a race to the bottom, neck and neck with each other!
When does round two of the US civil war start? Almost can't wait.
.
Why?
In 2006 when Obama and the democrats took over congress the debt ceiling was only $8.2 Trillion. Just 5 years later the national debt has now more than doubled to $16.7 Trillion.
If we had just taken Bush's worst deficit x 5 years we'd "only" need a $10.4 Trillion debt ceiling today.
If government spending really created prosperity and jobs, where are they? The biggest spending in world history these last 5 years should have produced 10% GDP growth rates and 3% unemployment. It's all a big lie and theft by debasement of everyone on the planet holding USD.
Obama's insistence on continuing more of the same spending while it does no good is really mindboggling if you think about it. It's a banker Ponzi scheme and Obama is Bernie Madoff working for the bankers trying to avoid the unavoidable collapse.
Is there anywhere else on the planet that is doing what Obama is doing? No. Everyone is massively cutting back on their spending except Obama and the dems.
i wouldn't be so hard on them. after all they are just following orders.
The biggest spending in the last 5 yrs went to the bankers, who said all was doom if they were allowed to fail. And to pay for two wars - well, actually, two spending sprees the Bush admin undertook for the defense industry, as well as Bush's brilliant Medicare Part D (oh, we don't need to negotiate drug prices, those guys will be fair with our senior citizens). We have yet to see or price in the so-called Obamacare.
QE1 was essentially an asset swap. Sold to the admin as a cure-all. Keeping in mind that the friends of choice of big bankers are Republicans, but anyone wanting to give them lots and lots of money may become temporary friends, until the one way money train runs out.
For TARP, the bankers said, 'oh please sir, if you'd but save us, we promise we will help Main Street.' Forgetting that bankers always lie and would sell their mothers, the deal was inked. They promptly took the money and ran or, more to the point, closed the vaults and said Screw You, Main St. Main St. being unable to access cash to expand, had to shrink - duck and cover.
QE1 comes along. Why Obama decided to keep the losers from the Bush admin is a mystery, still. Bernanke, Geithner and others. I guess he doesn't know how to fire dumbasses and hire smart people. QE1 was to ease economic markets by purchasing crappy assets like CDS's and help the credit markets. Which it didn't do, because Wall St said thanks, bye!
QE2 was also an asset swap, sold as a way to provide liquidity to the markets but also as an 'economic stimulator'. Which it didn't do because it also went to Wall St. Well, it helped corporations trading on the exchanges - they could buy back their stock and sit on over a $1T cash, while not expanding the economy in the US - the 'jobless recovery'. Stock holders were happy seeing their $$$ numbers increase, not realizing those dollars were taking a dive.
Again - Wall St said, 'oh, we'll help, Mr. Democrat President, who we would normally hate, but since you have your hand in on helping us, we'll take it anyhow. And then stab you in the back, as well as the country, because bankers have no allegiance to countries. "Let me issue and control a nation's money, and I care not who makes the laws." Mayer Rothschild, bankers god.
We could have continued Republicans in the White House, would not have made a difference. Could have controlled both Houses of Congress as well as the White House - we'd still be where we are at now. Wall St. owns it, and they don't care what color you are or what party you adhere to.
You can't point fingers at one man, or one party anymore - they all are at fault, and conspire together to satisfy one god - bankers - and the country be damned.
QE3 should send every US citizen over 18 a check for, oh, I dunno - $25,000. Putting it in the hands of the bankers is nuts - we already know what they will do with it. (yes, I know it will be increasingly worthless dollars, but they will at least circulate and create jobs - not everyone is smart enough to trade it in for gold and silver).
Didn't Obama come on TV like 1-2 days ago and claim 'no chance whatsoever for a double dip'??? Actally in part that's true since we're in a disguised depression. At from a labor's economist point of view. Strip all the unemployment, food stamps etc watch what happens. Imagine all the starving people when they know damn well where all the money went.
BTW If Obama was such a great stock picker not only would he had called 'go long' like he did when he said 'now looks like a good time to buy stocks' he would've also issued a 'go short' alert. lmao.
The sky is falling !! The sky is falling!! That's all you guys do around here is...hey....wait a minute...shit!! The sky is falling!!
(ah, hang in there lads, stiff upper lip and all that, things will work out..somehow...)
a lot of us here have been either net short the market or waiting for the right signal to go short.
Things are working out just fine for many of us. In fact...the last ten days have been down right glorious:-)
Looking at the SPX monthly chart...something interesting pops out at me.
SPX is on the verge of breaking below the 20MA on the monthly chart. It's currently sitting right on it. This would be only the third time that has happened in the past 20 years.
The two previous times were November 2000 and January 2008. And we all know what came after both of those dates.
Worth keeping an eye on perhaps.
By the way...the DOW monthly...same thing.
and a 5% wipeout on the nasdaq? you forgot that. Tech sector got a sinking feeling after that bubble bizzaro Apple price. major selling due on that. i mean i got a xoom tablet, great machine. but companies went too hard with the apple IPAD tablet copies.
well, there is today's Fed balance sheet
the asset side was motionless. not even category shifting. no MBS rollovers, a tiny, immaterial purchase of treasuries. ice nine ish
while the liability side introduced a new wrinkle.
I predicted that the Treasury's checking account would get a pop courtesy of a reduction of the bank's reserves. I was wrong. Both sunk. Treasury checking down by over half to $32 bn. That's a really tiny sum all things considered. But bank reserves down as well.
And the Fed worked out covering the Treasury checks and even sending a miniscule bit to the banks from said banks' 'reserves at the Fed,' by taking on another $42 bn in 'other liabilities.'
I don't know the full definition of the Fed's 'other liabilities,' but I'll wager the definition includes, at the very end, the phrase 'and other liabilities.'
It is an odd coincidence that the inertness on the asset side of the Fed's balance sheet and the'opaqueness' eruption on the liability side would coincide with all this volatility in the broader market/world.
methinks you're definitely on the yellow brick road by taking a daily gander at the Fed balance sheet. thanks for sharing. odd coinkidink indeed.
The Sky is Falling in Asia:
Nikkei -3.54%
Hang Seng -4.52%
Shanghai -2.08%
S&P ASX -4.52%
Sensex -1.38%
waiting for shanghai to hit 3.00% negative, so it can knock out the ASX200 stops 1140 handle.
Happy Birthday to you,
You were Kenyan, who knew.
Happy Birthday to you,
The market is now a pooch-screw!
(Marilyn's version)
Thanks, Mr. President,
For all the things that you've done,
The battles you've run from.
The way you deal with China,
Makes us think you've a vagina.
We thank you from out hearts,
Because this economy smells like Barney's farts!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4hfdaC7eL4&feature=player_embedded
we don't need a president. we need an auctioneer.
What's all this talk about huge millitary stuff at the train stations? Are they going to distribute rifles to 'we the people' since we'll be the only motherfuckers left here to defend the damn place?
No, "we the people" should already have our own rifles. They should just be dropping off some extra ammo.
lol , that's what you get if you beggar thy Neighbour....
BERNANK - but wait,there's more.... QE !,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,000000000000000000000000000000
the New Normal, better than expected, No stupid ? Wall Street is Not the economy ?
well Timmy who would have thought that we maxed out our Credit Card ?
High Frequency Trade your way out of this Arseholes !
this definately made me a very happy man for today... ;)
payday bitchez !!!
Yesterday Debbie Wasserman-Schultz said "We've really begun to turn the economy around." She was blinking a real lot while she talked. I wonder if she had something in her eye?
That stupid Progressive Liberal Cunt is too stupid to stand in daylight. I despise the fact we share the same state. She's so in tune with O's bowel movements you can tell when the White House shitter flushes because her eyes turn brown...can't wait to meet her.
Bearish daily and weekly equity charts strengthen further.
S&P500 head and shoulders target is 1,176 and further downside
expected.
As mentioned for some time - S&P500 monthly has been tracking
sideways this year. This extensive distribution signified a
bearish big picture and that a significant downtrend would follow.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Is Asia selling the dollar? Looks like it.
At what ;point do US banks fix all non-conforming mortgages 30 yr at 5% overnight? Watch us rally ...."Wake Up Honey!!!!"
Obummer will see what a real Obsidian Friday looks like shortly!
DOW to 10,800 or less -- and if not, it is exclusively due to some freshly hatched Nth degree $cam. Why? Fundamentals are dire across the board and the jobs #'s will torpedo this mother!
DOW 10,800 - 10,500
NASDAQ 20.50 - 19.50
Biyatchez I stand by my #'s and am stating them here -- if I'm wrong I'll eat crow humble peas tomorrow. If I'm right bow before me as I acid bath you into ectoplasmic vagina goo.
Delicious!
This is awesome: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4hfdaC7eL4
(Etrade commercial spoof.)
Haffy Berfday Owebama! - sowry, my moufh is full of peas
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