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Market Chatter Of Greek Default Over The Weekend

Tyler Durden's picture





 

This email is making the rounds and catching most traders' attention:

From colleague: trader friend just hit me with the following: There is “Chatter” in the market of a Greek Default this Weekend - and their CDS is over 400 wider…  Soc Gen is off 7% on exposure - German CDS more expensive than UK;s - despite the ballooning in the CDS prices for Lloyds and RBS.

In other news, Reuters is reporting that Stark is about to retire; with announcement to come after the German market close according to sources. His potential departure is due to a conflict over ECB bond buying according to sources.

Total chaos.

Update: ES reaction

 


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Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:03 | Link to Comment SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Bullish.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:26 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

bullish for stocks, etfs and corporate debt.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:33 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

Nassim Taleb came out with this gem today:

"The triplet. Three bankruptcies that would save the world from fragility: 1) Goldman Sachs, 2) Harvard University, 3) the New York Times."

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:35 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

4) Warren Buffett 5) George Soros 6) Karl Denninger

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:03 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

OOOO! OOOO! I wanna play

7) JP Morgan

8) BNP Paribas

9) John Paulson

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Red Herring
Red Herring's picture

More like government, banking and MIC

 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:40 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

And finally number ten:  RobotTrader !!!!!

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:48 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

lol.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:35 | Link to Comment nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

IMHO you cannot club crooks with Karl.

 

 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

how bout baby seals?

YOU ARE BANNED!!!!

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:26 | Link to Comment King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

All priced in.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:28 | Link to Comment bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

you know what's not priced in, hertz is not going to buy dollar thrifty. that's not priced in.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:12 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

They are going to default some time, the market has already priced it in, so it might as well be this weekend.

And the beginning of the end of the Euro (as we know it) starts.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:41 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Nothing has priced in these eventualities.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Ye Ye
Ye Ye's picture

Ok, maybe it's a dumb question but ... if all the PIIGS default, won't that save the Euro?  No need to print, no funny buying of bonds, just a big f-u to the bond buyers.

So this seems Euro bullish to me.  They are finally facing reality.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Debugas
Debugas's picture

it is more likely Euro becomes stronger (as in real euro of Germany) when Greece and other PIIGS leave the euro-zone

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:14 | Link to Comment SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Everyone should invest in equities.  Haven't you heard?  They're cheap!  There's no downside risk either.  If the economy improves, STOCKS GO UP!  If the economy collapses, Bernanke will shoot it up with a huge dose of funny money and STOCKS GO UP! 

What?  Buy gold?  Buy silver? Conspiracy theorist! 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:21 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, buy semi auto firearms and lots of ammo.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:27 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

IMO, everyone's first purchase should probably be a pump shotgun or (any) .22.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:30 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Lots of semi auto shotguns and .22's out there.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:53 | Link to Comment UpAndComing
UpAndComing's picture

there a way to buy "lots" without flagging hard on the radar?

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Depends on where you live. Check your local laws and begin stacking accordingly.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment LasVegasDave
LasVegasDave's picture

backpage.com  lots of AKs for sale there for under $600.  no bill of sale, background check, registration or tax for private sales.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Reptil
Reptil's picture

indeed!

I have a used Norinco MAK 90 in pretty good condition. I acquired it through a trade, but I don't really use it much. I'm more into pistol shooting. I could use the cash, so I'd rather just sell this to a fellow AZ shooter.
Item comes with:
Sling
Two 30-round magazines
200 rounds of military surplus ammo (7.62 x 39)

Selling for $700 cash.
I'm not interested in trades, unless for gold and/or silver.

lol

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:29 | Link to Comment DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

PM's = Gold, Silver, Lead

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:52 | Link to Comment Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Lead is a soft metal.  I prefer steel.  It penetrates body armor, vehicles, and walls.  Why have an assault rifle and not have steel core ammunition?  ;-)

Sat, 09/10/2011 - 12:56 | Link to Comment WakeUpPeeeeeople
WakeUpPeeeeeople's picture

A 165 soft point coming out of a 30-06 or 308,  there is no body armor I am aware of that can stop it. Same with engine blocks and walls.

Now if your talking AK or AR, need to leave those for the women and children and get yourself a real weapon.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:03 | Link to Comment maxmad
maxmad's picture

Opa, bitchez!

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:03 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

this makes sense...the g-7 can announce plans to support the market in the aftermath of the default

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:10 | Link to Comment eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

Maybe this is why PMs are being pummelled now. Just like the Swiss government, G7 wants to keep PMs in check when Greece defaults. However, I don't believe Greece will default so quickly...

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:27 | Link to Comment IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

Agreed. Rumors are to panic the herd...

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:48 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Rumor has it the herd is panicked.

V

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:04 | Link to Comment Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Medusa Wrath Bitchez

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:22 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

RELEASE the KRAKEN!!

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Here you go...includes some good dramatic music:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3hq82HOKhs&feature=related

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:22 | Link to Comment edotabin
edotabin's picture

"Kill the wabbit"?

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:05 | Link to Comment kilters
kilters's picture

Can all this chaos not wait until the Rugby world cup is over?

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:13 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

perfect timing.  america will be pre-occupied with 9/11 anniversary and start of NFL season. 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:19 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

America MIGHT be pre-occupied with a NEW 9-11! You hear all the news chatter about 'credible terror threats'....'3 guys in a non-descript van'...and all that?

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Herman Strandsc...
Herman Strandschnecke's picture

The scaremongering is mainly aimed at our children I think.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:27 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Why? Because american grown ups are all too retarded to get it?

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:32 | Link to Comment Herman Strandsc...
Herman Strandschnecke's picture

Children are smart and if not checked early can ask awkward, intelliegnt questions later.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 13:43 | Link to Comment ciscokid
ciscokid's picture

LMAO+++++++++++++++++

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:41 | Link to Comment ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

here here ...

came very close to going to New Zealand for a week of games ...... obviously we face high volatility ... so many cross-currents ... dangerous to walk away day-by-day.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:06 | Link to Comment eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

Over the weekend? G7 has decided to let Greece down? I feel difficult to believe this rumour

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:27 | Link to Comment Minoan
Minoan's picture

You are right.It's impossible a default this weekend,because Greek PM is visiting Thessaloniki for ???.These rumours are for traders...

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:29 | Link to Comment Minoan
Minoan's picture

Great.ZH does not support greek alphabet.Fear of the greek bears.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:06 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the bernank will buy them in like 15 minutes.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Plus One always!

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:06 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I love the smell of Chaos in the morning....

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I'M HANKERING FOR A Whimpy burger? (:

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:07 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Rumor has about 75% "voluntary" participation in the greek restructuring, 90% is required.

Is it time for the fat lady to sing?

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Imagine if it's time for Thin Lizzy to sing!!!

V

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

When CNBS says it then it is not just a rumor for the Bitchezzzz here at ZH and you know something is up...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44439054  Greece's Euro Membership Is Hanging By A Thread...

Greece's Race to Catch Up on Reforms Seems Doomed

And what is this slightly off topic BS I wake to?  Obama Unveils $447 Billion Jobs Plan to Congress  What happened to 300 billion just yesterday?  Toss an extra 147 bil at the problem and see if it goes away?  Inflation?

Just in time Barry, you can start by giving a chunk to BofA so they can rehire the 40,000 they just announced they are laying off.  BofA discussing about 40,000 job cuts: report

And of course there is the euro itself doing it's best impression of Madame Butterfly in her closing scene.  $1.3721 and falling. 

Kick the can no more, if they do manage a couple more kicks they will get a lot less distance and it will be with the pain of all those broken toes.  Monday should be interesting for traders. 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:08 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

This should anchor expectations nicely.  Of course the line on the anchor is 6 ft long in a 4 mile deep river and will pull the dinghy under with it.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:09 | Link to Comment HedgeFun
HedgeFun's picture

OPA!  lets break some plates and dance.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:10 | Link to Comment rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

Plunge Protection Team at work.........Bitchez!

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:12 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Uh, the reverse PPT seems to be at work at the moment.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:21 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

Plunge  Propagation Team.

 

You may not sell your bonds and run into equities. 

 

 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:23 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh snap!

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:38 | Link to Comment DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

Sorry Sheep but that comment is clearly metrosexual!

-1

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:44 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What, you dont use product?

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:46 | Link to Comment DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

lol

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:52 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

Ah ! 

Plunging. Pick yer own connotation.

 

Speaking of plunging; don't count on it to be effective when the water system fails.

Gravity sewer systems require a lot of water to keep things moving.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:12 | Link to Comment maxmad
maxmad's picture

PPT on holiday on a Greek Island this weekend, Bitchez!

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:10 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

and yet those banking goons are still sitting on golds chest, not letting him rise to the occasion

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

yah - but Gold's a stud and if they don't get off they're one right up the ass.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Judge Holden
Judge Holden's picture

Google image: Der Spiegel + Euro + Greece and click on the picture.  Funny stuff.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:11 | Link to Comment unky
unky's picture

What else did people expect with 2 year greek bonds arround 80% yield ?

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:17 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Frankly I expect more pink unicorns jumping over glitter rainbows.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Surly Bear
Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:40 | Link to Comment DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

I dated a Greek chic for a while, she was insane in the rack....ah fond memories...until I broke up with her, she stalked me for months....

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:15 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Now that would make Monday morning interesting. And yes, let them hike gold margins as much as they want. Will buy more on the dump. But, all that does is remove some speculators which none of us want anyway. This is not a 6 month investment for most of us. This is for the long term. And those on the idiot channel who advise we are not very smart to get "married" to gold do not even begin to grasp what they are talking about. If at some point we elect a "Thomas Jefferson" and have an entire change in Congress, elect Men and Women, instead of puppets and do what is right for our children and country. Then we will talk about moving on from gold.

Just wake me up then and I am with you. Until then I just make the call every month or so.

And is this not perfect as to what is happening in this country. Second largest bank and largest Fast food. This is the damn path we are on.

MarketWatch:

Bank of America cuts may hit 40,000 (WSJ.com)
U.S. leads McDonald's sales growth for August

 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:44 | Link to Comment Zedge Hero
Zedge Hero's picture

Here is my weekly newscast-This week is about Italy and it's protest and the effects to the European debt crisis. Enjoy, and down with the banking cartel!

http://www.youtube.com/user/zedgehero

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:15 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Looks like I picked a bad day to quit drinkin Ouzo!

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:22 | Link to Comment WoodMizer
WoodMizer's picture

Ouzo and Grappa are in a race to the bottom.

Can't wait for beer and wine to join the race.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:16 | Link to Comment Farmer Brown
Farmer Brown's picture

Has Cramer come out and informed the world that Greece is 100% safe?  Cuz that would seal it for me.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:18 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont think Cramer does countries, just insolvent banks and worthless stocks.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:22 | Link to Comment PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Hercules partied to hard with the Entitlement Drunks. Hangover commences in 5, 4, 3, 2, .....

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:31 | Link to Comment Argonaught
Argonaught's picture

I guess that would work, too, as eventually the Romans will suffer the same fate, but I think you really mean Heracles?

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:22 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Who is the program director that allows this sham of a person on at 6AM on the West Coast? I either turn on Bloomberg or mute. Who gets paid to put this idiot on TV so often. Makes me sick.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I cant figure out why it is some of these flat-out retards are on TV talking to me, I probably DONT want to know the greasy reason!

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:32 | Link to Comment DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

Because it's not over until ALL the wealth is transferred!

 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:22 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

don't look here quick look over there..a nation in the west defaults is not in the EE game plan..expect daddy warbucks er Obuma to cough up some FRN.s we are all greeks now

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:23 | Link to Comment long_and_short
long_and_short's picture

This SHOULD be bullsih for equities, becasue it all but guarantees QE3 and maybe even moves the date up for impelementation.  Not to mention size would be nuclear.

This is the bank failure everyone's been talking about except we skipped to the sovereigns.  Good way to prime the banks again.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:24 | Link to Comment eduard khil
eduard khil's picture

but but i thought they fixed greece when those two small banks merged.

 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Well at least 9/11 terror has become more civilized.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Bloomberg:

Stocks Tumble Worldwide After Obama Speech

Any questions?

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:46 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well futures didnt tumble until a few minutes ago. Sure Obama is an ass hat and his stupid central planning speech is worthless, but I think something else made stocks tumble.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment PeterB
PeterB's picture

Who's your daddy...USD

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:26 | Link to Comment Agent P
Agent P's picture

Fucking Greek Tragedy

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:27 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Soverign Nations have been added to the definition of TBTF

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:28 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Like i said in the earlier post today: Put Your helmets on, it's on like Donkey Kong!

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:30 | Link to Comment DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

Why was the Greek boy sad after coming to the USA?

Because he left his brother's behind!

 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:31 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Short olive oil and tzatziki?

Long Grecian-Formula?

How to trade. How. To. Trade.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:54 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Easy. D.O.N.T!

V

Tipping Point is Here

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:31 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Lagarde and the rest of the central planning maroons are blatantly saying there should be global coordination of banking and government interventions for "recovery".  Well, timing of a Greek default now would be perfect to give Bernanke more lattitude for OT2 and QE, buying Euro bonds, giving more liquidity to European banks. 

Never let a crises go to waste.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:34 | Link to Comment boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Of course all that would channeled through her office yes?  Along with all the sovereignty traded in for that "help." 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Belarus
Belarus's picture

Thank goodness. I was getting nervous there for a moment when futures surged after Obama's speech. 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:45 | Link to Comment pappyhlace
pappyhlace's picture

i am jack's looming default...

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 09:47 | Link to Comment infinity8
infinity8's picture

bring it! i'll start with some saganaki, thank you.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Amazing feat of EU CB-ing they could extend this for 16 months. Mz Merkel looks worn out.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:21 | Link to Comment Caught Stealing
Caught Stealing's picture

Hey, gurus...what credibility is there in this "huge intervention" that Catrini is talking about for this weekend?

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1149546801001/buy-stocks-that-benefit-fro...

 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Greek 1 Year hits 97.418%

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:33 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Greek will probably default officially this weekend.

Bullish for EURUSD when the cancer therapy is finally starting.

Don't forget the paper manipulation. The propaganda either way is just hype.

Gold in 2011 reminds of oil in 2008. Who would ever believe that $147 per barrel was legit? Peak oil hype and paper traders pushing the price up. It was a racket! Now gold pushing higher.. by who? Keep in mind that meaningful buyers are going directly to the source and pay much less for their gold than retail does.

 

 

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 10:42 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Hmmm, 9/11 terror alert/act, greek defaut, and worldwide easing all happening in the same weekend?

It's more likely than you think.

If a "terror" attack happens this weekend, it will mostly likely be to divert attention away from these.  They need mass confusion to get away with this caper.

I put the likelihood of all three of these evens happening on the same weekend (without it being a setup) at about 1 in 250 million (one major terror attack every ten years, one round of QE each year, and one state default each year (being generous), and two days in the weekend.

Sat, 09/10/2011 - 02:27 | Link to Comment pappyhlace
pappyhlace's picture

i got a fever...and the only prescription is more greek default

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