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Market Closing Snapshot
On another day of abysmal volume, any and every 'good' news was roundly sold, with risk, the euro and PMs all closing just off the lows.
- S&P 500 down 1.2% to 1250
- Dow down 1.1% to 12154.06
- Nasdaq down 1.3% to 2590.79
- S&P Mid 400 down 1.8% to 871.49
- Russell 2000 down 2.1% to 735.68
- Front month crude down 1.8% to $99.54
- Front month gold down 2% to $1562.9
- EURUSD down 1% to $1.294
- 10-yr yld down 8 bps to 1.92%
Courtesy of Bloomberg
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Deflation and deleverage.
Low volume on a down day. Smells bearish for the dollar.
I think everyone at ZeroHedge should pay their respects to MathMan for being THE ONLY ONE right about silver this year. He called the collapse in the Spring, and he called for silver to fall back to the 20's by year end - this, against the consternation and constant berating by virtually everyone who regularly posts here. EVERY SINGLE SILVER BUG at ZeroHedge had predicted that silver would have been squeezed into the stratosphere by now, and EVERY SINGLE ONE OF YOU were buying "with both hands" in the 40's.
Mathman, wherever you are.... <tip of the hat> ....well played, Sir.
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
I'd hardly call an EXPECTED price drop based on deleveraging a collapse you fucking retard.
Yeah, I am not sure I agree with Max. I mean, who here said it goes stright up? I had a higher end of year target (much higher) but when it was in the $40s I said it would test support. I'll admit I didn't think to see under $30, but hey, I ain't complainin'.
exactly. i'm torn right now between adding more gold or silver to my stack. adding a few ounces of gold would be SO nice but then when i think about adding a few 100 oz engelhards to my collection, i get all hot and bothered.
Comex volume is drying up, FAST! No one wants to play in the criminal arena. Price discovery is out of whack, much like the manipulated price of BAC. It ain't real, dude!
The Comex and JPM will send the paper price of silver to zero, guaranteed. Watch, it will happen. They have no metal, so they have no other choice. Mathman and you are both idiots for not recognizing that the paper price will go much lower than $20.
The fact that you believe and watch the Comex price of PM's makes you a delusional person, completely suckered into believing the sad state MF Global put the futures market into. Fractional reserve lending of PM's was the norm, now the liars are trying to squirm out of the mess they're in. The ponzi is rigged and the dollar headed for failure. Debts can't be repaid, yet Osama wants a higher debt ceiling.
I'll take my physical silver, TYVM!
One of the main drivers behind the Fiat Ponzi has always been getting PM out of the hands of the people and into the Central Bank vaults of the fascist system. FDR started this and Bernanke is merely continuing it by answering Ron Paul's questions about gold with ludacris answers of "tradition".
I'll buy all the way down. I know where the support levels are, I know how to DCA, I know how to do this, and so should everyone that has read ZH, TFMR, and my blog. We all know when to buy and when to not.
My average price on silver is around $18 and my average price on gold is $1120. Platinum is a little higher than what I'd like it, but whatever. I'll buy all the way down. Give me them ounces.
The physical market and paper market are disconnecting, even as we speak. It started about 6 weeks ago and is accelerating. Soon, dealers won't honor the Comex price. I don't believe physical will EVER go below $20, but sure as heck Comex price of silver is headed below that.
Measuring a limited tangible asset via a fraudulent bank vehicle will become increasingly visible and will expose the banksters.
The physical market and paper market are disconnecting, even as we speak......
JESUS CHRIST! No it's NOT. HOW MANY TIMES DO WE HAVE TO HEAR THIS FUCKING BULLSHIT? That's just more of the same disinformation BULLSHIT that the dumb retail metal community is INFAMOUS for.
Bron Suchecki, Manager Analysis and Strategy at the Perth Mint and a relatively frequent contributer in the blogosphere, has repeatedly (as recently as last week) confirmed that buyers of size are buying AT SPOT. There is ABSOLUTELY NO DIVERGENCE in price between physical and paper. When the retail client buys physical at $X over spot at his his local coin store, it's only because he's getting jacked for profit by numerous people along the supply chain. The REAL buyers who distribute to the retail peasants across the planet are BUYING AT SPOT!
Even Eric Sprott - a god among ZH readers - admitted this year that he buys at (or near) spot, too. This was especially hypocritical because he had been trumpeting the "silver shortage" horn quite loudly while trying to bring his PSLV to the market in the weeks/months prior. In reality, it was just a clever marketing tool to differentiate his fund from SLV. And you idiots chomped on that bait, HARD.
With silver NEGATIVE for the year, you'd think that people would eventually want the truth! Some of you are so detached from reality, you'll buy into the propaganda all the way up, AND all the way back down. "Price doesn't matter to me anymore. I measure it in ounces now." LOL. Perhaps the fictional drama is just too addictive. DOOM! DOOM! DOOM!
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
I don't think you get it. The demand for buying physical is staying high, demand for paper is declining. Supply for physical is decreasing, supply for paper is increasing. There is your disconnect.
I'm buying as a way to vote, because the ballot box is meaningless.
If I lose money I'll be just as happy as if I break even or gain.
The US gov't is broke. Pensions are dry. Unfunded liabilities will never be honored. Osama wants more debt. Geithner tells the EU to monetize. London hits the metals hard at 2am Est regularly. Comex invites Pisani to view the gold, only thing is, the gold he shows doesn't show up in the inventory! Hmmm..... ya, Comex and JPM are the good guys. Osama has my back. LOL.
Get a life Max. You don't need to get so angry when someone tells the truth about how corrupt the metals market is. And by the way, the physical market has been disconnecting for about 6 weeks now.... no where did I say it did in Aug 2010 when Sprott ordered his physical as you reference, you idiot.
Excellent post, Max. Couldn't have said it better myself. Where are the Silver bugs now? I don't see daily articles on ZH anymore?!
I agree the PMbug permabulls get annoying, but every correction being labeled a "collapse" by the papebugs is equally so.
I expect all sorts of carnage in PMs as well as everything, (although they will decline the least), with perhaps a retracement to the 50% fib on PMs when the DXY rallies to 90+. Be prepared to BUY BUY BUY.
It will be your last good entry point.
smells like the stench of carnage starting to permeate the IBM chart for realz
http://fiatflaws.blogspot.com/2011/12/ibm-tracing-out-end-of-era.html
If the S&P fell from its year high of 1363 in May to 756 today, would the PM holders call that a collapse? I suspect many would.
This is what silver has done. One might call that a mere blip in silver's move from 1999, but one could also call this hypothetical commensurate S&P drop, relative to 1987, to be a mere blip, too. If an equity holder then said, "we'll I bought in 1987, so I'm still way ahead", would PM holders or non-equity holders bite their tongues or be tempted to point out the non-sweet lemon reality?
So since the price drop was EXPECTED, then obviously nobody bought any silver above $27, right? It wouldn't make sense to buy at $33 or $39 or $43 if it was EXPECTED to be at $27 in December, right? I'm willing to bet it wasn't quite as expected as you claim.
As I noted in my other comment, if the S&P dropped from its May 2011 high of 1363 to 756 today, would that be called a collapse? I have no doubt it would be called such by virtually everyone on this site, and that includes RobotTrader and the original Harry Wanger. Such a move would only mirror what silver has actually done.
A spade is a spade.
Meh. You know, I won't argue with that, but as someone who has sold all his shares in silver miners, gold miners, etc, and gone into only holding physical, I could not care less. I didn't short the downside, and there was money to be made there, but I am enjoying buying the dip anyway.
But I like to count ounces, not $. I want as many ounces of PM as I can get, I don't really care about their value. I do this because I think PM (gold/suilver/platinu m) is monie, by definition. I do this not for any other reason than for the definition. I like to invest in the real world, not that of the given market that policy makers (PhDs/Bankers) have created, and as PM meets all four definitions of monie, and fiat does not (because it doesn't store wealth), I hold that. It helps me sleep at night, to say the least.
I like to count ounces, not $.....
Exactly. That's what makes you guys so hilarious. You count ounces on the way down, and $$$$'s on the way up. This way, you can pretend that your losses or "mark to market" don't matter. You're in the ether....deep.
LOL
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
Well give yourself a big old pat on the back there Redneck Johnny for Prosperity Man, Bravo!
The end result is that when the price drops, I buy, when it goes up, I don't. I haven't purchased silver above $36. When it goes above that, of course I am happy. But when it falls, I really don't care, I buy more.
And by not counting $....I don't think the $ has any value. I think of the dollar as an abstract concept to value energy, and I think it is a fallacious one.
If you don't own any physical then you are one colossally dumb motherfucker.
That's unduly harsh. It depends on the situation.
A guy that has many high-quality tools and knows how to use them has a pretty good stash of wealth. Plus he can make a living with them. Add in a well-appointed home shop (detached structure, wood heat) with 30+ years' accumulation of hardware & spare parts and he's all set for a barter economy if it comes to that.
Somebody's gotta be around to fix stuff after everything goes to Hell.
Comment was actually directed at MF, but point taken.
I actually think that there's a high probability there won't be an extended period of chaos, as that would ultimately further disempower TPTB.
Hedging that probability is prudent though.
yup, max
up, down, and we say wtf we feel like, too, same as you
the positions should be in t.oz and they can be marked to virtually anything~~no paper involved~~including frn's anytime, yup
up, down, and sidewayz
but, for some/many, the stuff is bought, paid for, and stashed
whether losses/or mark2M don't matter is up to the individual, ok, max?
not sure why you ass-u-me people have losses, but that is their business; if they own the PMs and don't need cash, pretending a paper loss matters is a bit like going bat-shit over depreciation on your car, or your insurance premium, or something
L0L!!! indeed!
I have silver on my weekly charts coming down to 24.30 to 22.00. This is my demand zone where I will look to purchase. If this demand zone holds it may go back to 30/31 area to my supply zone. if it blows through my demand zone at 24.30 then I see no reason why it doesn't get to the 19.50 area which is another demand zone. It will likely come back up from here but to where I dont know yet because I need to see how price reacts to the 24.30 area. Just my 2 cents so take it how you want. With this crazy market we are all guessing. 24.30 area might be the time for war with Iran or they may run it down to 19.50 for there war. I hate fundemental analyisis but must consider it in this era.
Good luck to everyone in 2012 and dont take my advice. Do your own analysis.
Facile Fischer. Shit goes up and shit goes down and in this market anything goes and all prognostications are just that. There is no cause to join and there is no one thing to rally behind or believe in, save for some good ol' dirty insider info. Because either/or thinking is fucking moronic, just like the 3rd rate entertainment you reference in your handle.
And remember, the man that calls silver in the upper $40s will too be right, eventually.
And actually he called it under $20 by summer on 3/6/11:
"And it will also break $20 by this summer."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-surges-hits-new-all-time-high-1437#comment-1024792
Here's another good one from 3/25/11:
"Or you could buy silver at $37/oz and hope it goes to $40 and then cry when it hits $20 bucks this summer.
Your choice."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bears-are-back-presenting-part-5-silver-thesis#comment-1101194
Oh and one more from 4/27/11:
"This is not going to end well for the longs. Be warned.
We'll be at 31 in a couple weeks, and below 20 by the summer."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/silver-10-one-day-drop-followed-764-one-day-retracement#comment-1214783
Since it isn't under $20 yet...keep trying!
He might yet be proved right on the price, but I don't expect for long.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-closing-snapshot#comment-20173
always respect someone who does their research and publishes the facts. that clarifies the discussion considerably.
I really doubt "every single silver bug" on ZH predicted silver would be "squeezed into the stratosphere" this year.
I and many others know (a) silver price is being held down by TPTB, (b) Euro disintegration this year would make USD stronger in comparison, (c) stronger USD would be a "safe haven" most investors would flee to rather than PMs.
I've always believed PMs would stay suppressed until USD shows signs of outright collapse, which would be postponed if Euro collapses first.
Nonetheless, silver is way undervalued at $27, and many people know it. It should be more like $127 right now.
Nor do I believe silver will rocket up in 2012, since I don't believe USD will collapse in 2012 ...short of WWIII breaking out ...which it might well do. China dumping $2 trillion of Treasuries will be the "shot heard round the world".
methMan
awesome call or two, indeed
but many were not buying with both hands since the teens and 20's, or even before
the silver charts are well known here
by most
you have these strange taunts for "everybody"
i told methMan: if you want to own PMs, you must buy them or possibly trade for them
duh
if you see no reason to own them, you can trade them, or not, but if you are gonna troll here, at least respect reality once in a while: many want to own PMs
I wonder why people like Max are so anti-PMs?
Would these same people be anti-anything-else, or just anti-PMs?
I can't think of any sound reason anyone would be anti-PMs
...unless maybe they're afraid of PMs revealing their beloved fiat currencies as the ponzi schemes they are ...which has happened to some degree since '08
...perhaps why these people are upset and gloat over any drop in PMs.
It's not that they are anti-PM's, it's that they are anti-ZH. The background droning is aimed at ZH's credibility. Who is the number one gold-hating blogger out there who also likes to mock ZH?
Anti-PM
Anti-ZH
Pro-Status Quo
Pro-Fascism
Free speech applies even to them, and also to my ability to state that they are all colossally stupid motherfuckers.
Indeed.
Some are not anti-PM, but rather just try to maintain perspective. Yes, all fiat will die someday (probably replaced by new fiat), but all one needs to do is match his own time above ground to the predominant means of exchange of that time. Nelson Bunker Hunt failed to make that match, and his $48.50 silver fell to $3. He's dead. Early equals wrong.
There are approximately 177 fiats in existence today, and they are welcomed by about 6.999 out of the planet's 7 billion workers and consumers. That represents a lot of inertia. Many of these folks (the 99% oft claimed as owning no PMs) are not as enamored of PMs as many on ZH. History for them is their own life, not 5000 years, and they are under no obligation to have the same fancies as the dead former PM aficionados. Since PMs cannot go up on their own, and since inertia is preventing these non-aficionados from exchanging their paper for metal, trying to match one's life expectancy with the means of exchange remains an open question. People also must factor in the possibility that those who were the primary drivers of PMs' decade long rise (HF managers and HNW individuals) may sell. Who is going to buy that size? Max is probably just reacting to the stridency and false certainty that manifests itself so often in the comments section on this site. The whole monetary thing remains a work in progress.
Great thoughts, although silver could rise due to scarcity in the face of industrial demand - it doesn't have to be recognized as a medium of exchange for that to happen. In that sense, it can go up "on its own", or at least in the absence of speculative hoarding.
On what hemisphere?
DIE-lation-age: poof and shatter the rehypothecation.
/Risk off, bitchez.
everything is down except the Dicks at FED.
ANy1 using nadex? need some help with those options.
They and the politicians are down on their knees for the corporate CEOs.
lololol :)
How about that Euro? And hey how about throwing in a little BAC? Buy, buy, buy right.
Couple more days like today and BAC is going to be swimming with the fishes again.
BAC will be nationalized, like many others in Europe for example. COmmerzbank.
Jimbo!
How's a two-year low, a 44.6% YTD loss and the seond WORST performer on the Dow treating you?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40888971/The_Dow_s_Top_3_Stocks_for_2011
Booya!
Never fear!
After the "much-better-than-expected" initial UC claims tomorrow, we will be right back on our way up toward 1300.
Don't forget - we also have the Chicago PMI release AND the Pending Home Sales Index to spur more HFT bot buying tomorrow.
Irrational exuberance is a mere few hours away!
Pointless,
Don't you think that the Italian sale of 8.5 B ($10 billion US) in Italian 10 years will trump the weekly UC figure?
Ohhh! I forgot - China economy is blowing up. Europe is blowing up. Brazil economy is blowing up. But somehow the U.S. will somehow muddle through and "decouple".
Only thing that looks like it is "in play" right now is "Investor LSD"
Mugatu, what makes you think Chairman Ben and Super Mario aren't spending an all-nighter cranking out enough zeroes on their Commodore 64 in order to fulfill that 8.5 B Euro offering?
And I'll state it again - I am not involved in any market. No person in their right mind would be.
I'm not into gambling of any sor, and I especially hate casinos.
cf; "investor LSD"; is that a new ETF? What does it do?
If you're not buying Gold/Silver bullion with both hands you're an idiot! Also, I would be holding said bullion with one hand while holding a 357 Magnum in the other. Just saying.
And a few well placed claymore mines, you know... Just in case.
Just what the hell is going on with PM stocks...
I don't know but I am buying silver tomorrow. I love it under $30. It's like Christmas everyday of the week!
:)
Just wait, you will be able to get it at 18-20 in a few months
Mr. Hendrix,
The charts are looking terrible. I think Deep is right.
The charts? The charts show a run from $5 and you are scared that silver is going to fall? Bernanke just loaned a cool trillion to Europe, Europe is going to print, China is printing, Japan is printing, and you think silver is going lower than the mid $20s? PM is in the middle of a bull market. Tell me what killed this market? Did anything fundamental change this market? No.
And the technicals show long term support in the low $20s. I know JPM's modus operundi, I know that the dollar needs oil to stay in a range, I know that silver trades with oil, but the Fiat Ponzi is an illusion, it is not real, so technicals don't really matter in the long run.
Why do bubbles pop: The tech bubble collapsed because people were investing in start ups that had no business plans. The housing market collapsed because supply outpaced demand. PM is a real asset with no counter party risk. Demand has outpaced supply for ten years now in gold, 3 years for platinum, and silver demand will outpace supply soon. PM is monie, and Central Banks all over the world are pretending, pretending to create trillions of dollars, and you think the fundamentals have changed? Ha
Have at it hoss. It's your bed. For your sake I hope you are right. I put on a small short yesterday.
Technically, the charts are bad, that is fact. Fundamentally, three things are bad for silver: a) industrial production dropped for the first time in 7 months in November (not good for silver, whatever for gold), b) the dollar is on a tear and there is nothing that says to me that Europe (and the Euro) will get any boost anytime soon, and c) what winners will asset mangers sell to meet redemtions? Behaviorly, the punters are usually wrong and buy high, sell low. All the talk on here of hope of a bounce makes me think the denial stage is in full effect.
What are the bulls counting on? More money printing? If that is your base case, gold makes more sense as it has no industrial usage and a less technically bearish chart.
Whereas silver seemed like a bet against CB intelligence before, it now seems like a bet FOR the status quo (i.e., CB's will solve everything with money printing now). In my opinion, write-downs are inevitable sooner or later and we are getting later and later in the game. Write-downs equal losses and badly needed deflation (house prices, ABS, HY, ES are all too high). A bet on silver seems like a bet that banks will be able to mark-to-unicorn forever. We will not get money printing until the market tanks (as Ty has pointed out seemingly forever). What is it that is in short supply everywhere? Dollars. Too much debt and too few assets. Dollar up, silver down.
Best of luck to all.
Your logic seems sound, but..
PMs bottomed about 6 mths before equities did in 08/09.
Assuming futures still sets prices, relative positioning of the players would suggest the big boys are positioning long.
In the short term, who knows, maybe Greece goes tits up, maybe not.
But unless the structure of the market completely inverts, we are much closer to the bottom than the top, possibly a very significant bottom too.
The dollar is on a tear! It is such a great asset! I wish I had all my money in dollars! Who cares about silver, even though it, and not the dollar, meets all the requirements of money.
The dollar, the euro, the yen, they are all depreciating in real terms. Look at the long term chart of silver, look at gold, look at oil. You want me to change my trade because Bernanke is loaning dollars to Europe? Does that look bullish? Read between the lines: all fiat is set to fail. Give it a year, or maybe less.
Very interesting thing about the metals markets; before they rally, they make sicky making wipe-outs. This, I have observed for thirty years. We're growing short interest like mushrooms. And then what happens? hmm? the name of the business is futures. Also, Silver was available in 2002 for a day price of exactly the same as it was in 2001; one year; no net price increase. Complete revulsion. What happened next? hmm? Me, personally, I'm a buyer; and I mean this morning. I could be terribly wrong, it wouldn't be the first time.
Arb a ponzi paper contract or the stuff you hold? Lolwut? Where in high heaven do you suppose you'll find the latter at such a price?
Vampire bankers fall ill to only real silver, cupcake.
I was originally looking to get long physical silver at sub $25ish but after thinking on it a bit I'm going to hold fire until I see gold down in the zone of long term support 1250ish this spring. Where ever silver is at that point I'm going to load up.. I'm thinking silver will bottom first so I'll have to anticipate by a week or so when I think gold might kiss that channel line.
I disagree. I'll just say that so there's another side to that opinion. but I really don't think so.
be careful with silver and gold in short term...
we could face a Counterparty risk in GLD (ETF) that can destroy Gold price in nanoseconds...i mean 10-15% drop...
Why...cos Central Banks will be forced to sell gold ----SPECIALLY ITALY (Biggest European Gold Holder )
Similar that what BCP has done last year...
Silver will fall to $25 to $20. End of January.
That works. I'll be backing up the truck.
Very repeatable, very verifiable fact about the silver market; it makes it's low for the year either in the dead of winter; like right now; or in the high summer. I think the NYMEX did themselves proud this morning; but they're not supermen.
Really scaring that 1.92% 10yrs bonds...
Hope people doesnt hold too much equities next weeks...
Japanese Pension Funds Selling Italian bonds...
Lets c how many brave guys load 10yrs Italian bonds...
Nah, gotta wait until the annual spring Eurozone sovereign fire sale to load up on the Italian debt.
Thank goodness I sold Pm stocks. If this is a fake breakdown it is the best I have ever seen. If it is a breakdown...well....it is going to be the biggest inverse H-&-Shoulders fake ever! This should teach everyone (including me) stocks are fucking dangerous, especially during a depression.
DUST
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DUST
The great collateral squeeze.
Just picked up some shiny. Gotta go with this one.
Can the dollar index stay above 80 amidst all this chaos? Will inflation continue to seep into commodities underneath the currency wars? We shall see...note that oil at $108 even with a "semi-strong" dollar is a very strong price, especially at this time of year.
Could be a very *hot* summer for commodities.
One other thing, PM stocks and silver got the ass raping first in 2008. That has got to make you think.
This ass raping really hurts. Why hasn't the premium on phyzz been blowing out like it did in '08?
because 95% of the 3% who are aware of whats coming are already fully long...
Nearly 40% of homeowners in default have not made a payment in 2 years...Maybe they are contributing to their 401k instead.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/delaying-foreclosure-borrowers-keep-homes-102300544.html
Furthermore, expanding on my thoughts above, I won't be impressed with any "sell-off" until I see a few days or more in a row of 3-5% down moves in equities.
Just as we saw in 2008.
Which was also an election year, BTW.
Which also saw the S&P peak on 12/26/07. Which then proceded to plunge nearly 500 points from the beginning of the year up to the Presidential Election, ensuring the Democrat Barack Obama's victory.
Big Ben will try but fail in his attempt to save the market 2012. Everything will come full circle this time around.
I guess Dick Bove finally decided to sell his shares of BAC.
Last time I did the math on silver, if history repeats exactly the $21 to $8.5 move in 2008 would mean the $50 high in 2011 would drop us to $20 in 2012 and up to $100 by the end of 2014 or so.
Come on, you aren't serious; history doesn't repeat in that kind of simplistic way.
To anyone that says you can't get physical for spot: Check Bullionvault, they're trading within $1 of spot. 27KG availiable atm. You can take delivery too. (in the form of whole good delivery silver bars (1,000 troy oz))
Whether you like it or not, there was massive speculation in silver and it's all coming crashing down. Go on youtube, everyone's bought silver!!! Sure the US is going to hyperinflationary hell over the long term, but everyone was buying silver like it was tomorrow. I think we're reaching a bottom now, everyones terrified about silver. So many people are personally heavily invested in gold/silver now, Blackrock gold was the most popular fund on JPM Portfolio Challenge in the UK. It's about time there was a major raid and profit taking.
Good for you. Bullionvault.com is an excellent company. I've mentioned it several times. for all the paranoids out there it damn certainly is real silver; read about it on their website; it's a very simple straightforward business model.
I did get sucked into the hype at around $30 on the run up and bought a lot around that figure and didn't take profits. Pretty big mistake that I don't usually make, I guess greed took over.
Silver is an industrial metal and industrial uses heavily outweigh that of investments. With the solar industry getting hit hard by reductions in subsidies (big use of silver) and the global economy on the point of recession (Electronics, how many people do you know buying new appliances, TVs etc. It's hard out there with oil @$100 and most consumers already leveraged to the eyeballs) it's no surprise it's taken a massive hit.
Though I am still positive, look at the ECB's balance sheet and actions by the Fed. They're going to print the way to growth and the money supply shows this. The fact that peak silver has been reached in the US and mines are producing only a fraction of what they did historically keeps me positive.
Good luck out there, it's a rough world. The cartel is just a scapegoat for silver falling, it's falling due to its fundamentals.
There's two ways out of the problems the fiat currency people have now; inflation and inflation. and they're going to take one of them. Keep your pecker up; sooner or later the market always remembers there's such a thing as reality.
Yeah I agree, deflation crashes the system and inevitably they will print their way out. There's too many vested interests to let the market fail right now, once politicans start filling up their portfolios with 3xShort ETFs then I'll get worried.
I think the Iran-War trade is the way to go at the moment, we're a matter of time away from a war with Iran. War games going on in Iran, the helicopter incident today. I can imagine it now, US helicopter shot down and 20 US troops died. Obama says that action has to be taken, full out war begins. Dollar resumes its slide towards zero and keynesiasm happy times resume.
(Iran War Trade 1) Top performers ethanol as there will be a oil crisis, E.g. PEIX, BIOF, 2) Defence companies e.g. Raytheon (RTN) Lockheed Martin, 3) Oil companies, Exxon etc.
I am totally against war, but the sad thing is, it will happen. The US isn't going to stop empire building any time soon.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/151128#.TvtfitTLy5J
Iran says it chased away a Western helicopter that approached its navy war games area and did not leave until three warnings were issued.
It's weeks away folks. Get ready
wrong.
not inflation or inflation
hyperinflation, totalitarianism (no markets), war or collapse are the options. actually inflation isnt even an option (we either have deflation or HUGE inflation - minor 5-7% inflation no longer in the cards IMO)
You live in the Big Smoke? "Take Courage", "Get Youngers Today"; great beer.
Hey Fisher , how about i tell you that when all is said an done the criminals who raided silver on May 1st and then colluded to have 5 margin hikes in a row will either be in jail or dead, does that fit your view of things ? Or that the massive market manipulators will get their heads handed to them one way or the other ? Point to me how fundamentals have changed and no longer call for higher prices. All i see is unbelievable manipulation. Moreover as said above , this cannot be a deleveraging type 2008 when equities are flat. Nope...
Fundamentals are simply what most people use to justify their own position. There is no set equation for prices, because "fundamentals" are what the position holder claims them to be. Those chosen "fundamentals" are not what necessarily drives price.
One thing that can be said is that for prices to rise, buyers have to want to own more than sellers. The oft claimed "99% of people who own no PMs" are under no obligation to exchange whatever fiat they have for assets you champion. That is the real "fundamental" in the market: people either don't have the discretionary fiat to buy PMs, or those who have it choose not to buy. On top of that, those who bought in size a long time ago (HF managers and HNW individuals), and who were largely responsible for the rise that put it on the screens of those now stacking, might well decide the trade is finished and begin selling (as many are doing now). Until that selling, as well as the general inertia of the 99% is dealt with, prices could well continue to fall. It has nothing to do with manipulation.
Anyone who likes PMs should welcome the opportunity to buy more cheaply, plus stop keeping score in an instrument most claim is worthless.
1400 handle in gold before New Years Eve? Wouldn't surprise me as technical picture on gold is about as dismal as I have seen it in a while. Weekly chart looks like we could go into the 1200 handle by end of Jan or maybe Feb. From that low, back the truck up.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
The metals markets have pointy bottoms; they throw spikes down and then rally. What's the weekly chart going to look like next month? that's the question.
On a long enough timeline.....metals have long flat bottoms and pointy tops.
Metals selling end yr? That's your bear signal. With most of the market on holiday, the China meltdown has begun. So equities should slide into lower ranges. USD bid etc
The ECB print job isn't working and to keep a insolvent central bank solvent (ECB) the FED has to print via swaps. But...the USD is still bid.
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lots of comments here about the short term price of silver. yes, for holders of silver it is disappointing to see silver drop from $49 in April to $27 now but who was really looking to sell it at $49? Anyone looking to sell it for $49 or even $40 and try and buy back at a lower price are playing a trading game and not looking at the real fundamentals. If u try and trade in and out of this gold and silver bull market u will eventually get caught out. I bought silver because of its amazing fundamentals and the huge global financial problems of which NONE have been solved and in fact are getting worse by the day as the USD/EUR/JPY etc increasingly become confetti. At any moment a large bank within Europe could collapse and if that happened would u prefer having physical gold/silver or a paper asset? If inflation gets out of control u must have physical pms, if there is a giant deflation then lots of banks will disappear therefore u will also need pms. People should be looking to accumulate the physical pms on weakness (which is now) and ONLY be looking to sell when we have reached the mania phase i.e when every Tom, Dick and Harry realises that they must own some gold or silver or else get completely wiped out. It will be a number of years and many corrections before this occurs...everything else is really just noise.....
Have to admit I'm tempted by silver and platinum, and I'm one of the biggest PM haters on here.. But paired vs GLD? I'm still looking for SPX/GOLD parity. Looks like it's more likely to be at $1,000 then $1,500 though. I think we can all agree the GLD vs SLV/PPLT ratios are out of whack from a fundamental basis. IE how much exists vs industrial demand, cost to mine etc.... Oil feeling way too high too (relative to copper etc...)
Back to the headline... Gotta love a big down day on low volume. Tomorrow feels like it will be epic. Either I'll loose all the gains I made today on SMDD, TZA and FAZ (minus what I sold which was about 1/3rd of my position) or we'll see +15%+ day on all 3.
Place your bets. One more good day and I finish the year up 60%. I'm up 55% since sept. GLD down 14%, SLV down 40% and PPLT down 30%.
Obviously they need to lower the PM prices before another round of money creation. Otherwise the PMs would get too much publicity.
I see this as a good buying opportunity. Thanks, JPM.
I'm honestly not seeing any bearish argument for PMs. If I did, trust me, I'd sell mine---I'm not a hoarder or pm bug. It's just that I know banks cannot deleverage without going bust. Once you know that, you know the Treasury/Fed (a) will announce QE3/etc (b) are currentlty doing this behind the scenes or (c) both. What you know is not happening: proper deleveraging.
People fell for the deleveraging headfake ~10 days ago. I don't buy it for a second. People moving to the dollar as a safe haven = hilarious oxymoron.
Looking for a "risk on" reversal. An inter-market analysis of the AUDUSD, SPX, and TNX all point to higher levels in the near term and in the weeks ahead. http://bit.ly/vc6b4X
If you're concerned about the fiat price of PMs you shouldn't be buying them. It all comes down to Gresham's law. Bad money drives good money out circulation. This happens only because of government manipulation. People that buy PMs understand they're trading overvalued fiat currency for undervalued PMs. At some point creditors are going to demand an accurate measuring stick. Nobody wants to get paid back in rapidly depreciating currency. The market chose gold and silver as money a long time ago and I can only assume they will choose gold and silver again. Just because everyone is in on the fiat Ponzi scheme today doesn't mean they will be tomorrow. Keep stacking.