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Market Deja Deja Deja... Oh Forget It!

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today was special - full-retard kind of special - as the S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) did a double-dip deja vu move extending the series to seven days in row of early buying and late selling as ES closed at new cycle lows and a plethora of other asset classes all dropped aggressively to multi-month records. Credit markets remain the indicator for weakness and while JPM's exaggerated the moves, bear in mind that IG credit is only correcting back to where its underlying names have been trading (forced rich - too high - by JPM's previous actions) and the late-day sell-off dragged stocks down near to convergence. Some early stability in IG9 provided a quiet rally in financials but as the afternoon began the selling restarted in the credit index (which pushed to new cycle wides - despite the skew collapsing - as momentum is in charge now). Commodities slid on USD strength and liquidation pressures as we note Gold held in well (better than its peers) until the last hour or so (which has the smell of margin/collateral calls). Equities recoupled with Treasuries today after 3 days of exuberance (again).

S&P 500 e-mini futures continues their downward progression...

Buying ES at the day-session open and exiting athe European close; then selling at 2pmET and exiting at the US day session close has been a very profitable trade the last week or so (8 winners of 10 trades with huge positive skew on P/L)..

Credit leads stocks lower...

financials ended the day -0.5% but we note JPM managed some small gains - which has the smell of an RV trade against XLF - as the rest of the TBTFs all dropped further with Margin Stanley now -6.5% YTD...

but financial stocks remain 'exuberant' relative to the consistently correct credit markets...

and commodities continued to slide...

Equities recouple with Treasuries...

the rest of the market was just plain ugly...

  • IG credit widest since first week of Jan - 4 months
  • HY credit at YTD wides - now unchanged YTD
  • HYG (the high yield bond ETF) only back to one-month lows
  • USA protection is at 4 month highs
  • S&P 500 cash is at 3 month lows - only 6.6% off highs
  • VIX is closing at 4 month highs
  • USD (DXY) is just shy of the year's highs which would take us back to September 2010 highs
  • EURUSD is at 4 month lows holding the 1.27 handle for now.
  • 30Y TSY at 4 month low yields with a 2.91% handle
  • 10Y TSY at 7 month low yields with a 1.75% handle today
  • WTI at 5 month lows holding above $92 handle for now but a break takes us to early November levels
  • Gold is unchanged YTD now - modestly above the 12/30 swing lows which would take us back to July 2011 levels
  • Silver is unchanged YTD now
  • Copper in unch YTD and at around mid Jan lows.
 

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Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:12 | 2428755 Cdad
Cdad's picture

If the dumb ass HFT guys would quit marking everything up ahead of the open, the market could properly bottom...at least short term.  But of course, they are dumb asses.

As such, the market will continue to be "sold to them."

What a joke of a market.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:20 | 2428786 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All the 'markets' have had for 2-3 years is Hopium and promises of more impending free money...now they want proper pricing since theyre losing? 'Sold to them' will continue. 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:26 | 2428817 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I have no argument with you there, Dog.  My point is that, if the market ever decides it wants long side participation [which it does not seem to want], it would boot the speed of light guys out, and people could actually come into the market on the long side in a reasonable way.

These computer guys have simply shattered the market.  The exodus shall continue until such time as Duncan Niederauer's computer room is unplugged...and also, of course, these TBTF f'n banks are simply done away with.

Roll on Greater American Depression, roll on.  Thanks for this wasteland B. Bernanke and J. Dimon.  Way to go, gentlemen!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:39 | 2428848 Manthong
Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:44 | 2428870 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Greece GDP drops 6.2% in Q1

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=1989

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:54 | 2428937 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Well surprise, surprise, surprise.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:43 | 2428872 redpill
redpill's picture

Please can we stop talking about all this pesky economic stuff.  Haven't you heard there are more important things to talk about, like how much our President loves gay people?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:18 | 2429014 toady
toady's picture

The "drone" thread earlier today was completely hijacked with that shit!

I posted on that thread, then went back a couple hours later to see responses and read 6 or 7 homo-erotic responses in a row!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:42 | 2429104 Elwood P Suggins
Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:46 | 2429129 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Keep this in mind - Most of the weapons sold by Walmart have been sold to poor people.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:36 | 2429317 sof_hannibal
sof_hannibal's picture

Benny B: green shoots everywhere... don't u see them..?
.. a functionally retarted sheltered, academic puppet for too big not to fail... whose mentor, Alan, had to remove his PhD dissertation from the public, because it had to with housing bubbles...

Front row seats to the collapse and reset of society....you cant help yourself, except by picturing the analogy of Rome (Greece) burning-- buring to rubble, while Dimon and his owners and puppets party to the end... nothing left to do, but head to the colosseum, and watch some more bachelorette...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:38 | 2428849 fourchan
fourchan's picture

bingo

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:58 | 2428953 ACP
ACP's picture

Looksl kinda like a slinky. Maybe an algo to duplicate the movement of a slinky would make bank in this BS market.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:23 | 2429041 asteroids
asteroids's picture

All the bullshit happens before the market opens Why bother making a bet?  Perhaps ZH can enlighten us on all the crap that happens during the 60mins after the market closes.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:15 | 2428761 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Silver is about 25% off its high while the market is about 6%, volatility seems crazy.  What happens when the market really disconnects...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:14 | 2428766 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

VXX has been performing nicely these past few days.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:23 | 2428807 unununium
unununium's picture

I got VXX'ed, how about you?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:37 | 2428840 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

I'm VXX'ed too brah

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:36 | 2428846 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

It was payday in Greece.  Greeks withdrew 710 million euros on Monday.  That's gotta feel a bit liberating.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:43 | 2429109 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

Wow their retail sales should really go up this month.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:26 | 2428810 SMG
SMG's picture

Everytime someone mentions VXX on here the darn thing goes down.   Just saying.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:40 | 2428855 Cdad
Cdad's picture

@junkyard

 

I think silver has already disconnected/dislocated...and further, that is one place I started buying today...gently.  Using wide scales here...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:45 | 2428874 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Yea I'm watching and waiting for it to settle a bit before getting in, with my luck it'll just correct back up 20% overnight one day and that will be that

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2428952 Cdad
Cdad's picture

That's just it...silver never really settles.  It is constantly wild. 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:52 | 2429373 Strider52
Strider52's picture

I was sure it wouldn't get below 28. Heck, anything below 30 is a buy.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:52 | 2428910 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Silver still expensive compared to gold if you look back 3 years. Gold will continue going down as we play the deflation trade. Silver will go down 1.5x Gold. When stocks are washed out and gold < spx and QE is official gold and silver will rip. 1,340 was H&S support. Next stop 1,275. Then unload half your shorts/VXX.

Ps ZH just got a shout out on CNBC re MS

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:50 | 2428915 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

fuck no. silver is going down to around 15/16.

gold, 1350

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:54 | 2428928 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Gold will cross SPX at 1,250ish. Silver goes down 2x as much. Then you want to buy PMs or if you are froggy German industrials (which will be down another 30% plus EUR at 1.2)

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:20 | 2429023 Boston
Boston's picture

Sounds about right. But just in case:

I've got GTC orders for physical Ag starting at 25 and down every 2.

Gold at 1500 and down every 50.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:13 | 2428763 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

Clearance sale on PM's beaches.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:42 | 2428866 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Jamie?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:19 | 2428768 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

So what special something to stop the European freefall do you think Hollande and Merkel will come up with in their grand meeting tonight?  

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:15 | 2428769 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

"Complacency is a state of mind that exists only in retrospective: it has to be shattered before being ascertained. "

- Vladimir Nabokov

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:16 | 2428772 Timmay
Timmay's picture

Is anyone else feeling really shitty out there?  I would love to have some guys come on here and post some good news on a productive business venture, or even some anecdotal stories about positive things that might be going on somewhere else.

Feels like a morgue in here.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:22 | 2428800 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

My fruit trees and vegetable garden are doing well so far this Spring.  Delicious, affordable, and healthy food for the family and some for neighbors too.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:27 | 2428822 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Best investment advice I've seen all day.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:41 | 2428857 fourchan
fourchan's picture

long fruit

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:20 | 2429034 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

Some guy in the Obesity discussion yesterday said fruit gives you fatty liver. I'm sticking to scotch!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:17 | 2429209 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Hmmm, I heard that bourbon was better for you.  It's recommended as part of any balanced diet.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:50 | 2428908 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Likewise.  Best of all, the price for pecans and other nuts is going through the roof.  Going to be a good season.  At almost $100 per pound on some asian black markets I may need to start traveling more.  Funny how when a government destroy a market, the people always build another.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:37 | 2428841 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

FYI, I live on an ordinary suburban lot which can fit lots of fruit trees around the perimeter if you get dwarf (grows to only 8 ft or so) or semi-dwarf size stock.  Even an appartment porch can fit a couple mini-dwarf or columnar apple trees (4-6ft.) in pots as well as a small container garden for greens/herbs. 

Really satisfying to see the ancient magic of food growing.  Kinda balances out all the craziness.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2428954 smb12321
smb12321's picture

We all have it good when posters can spend hours yelling and debating on-line.  Perfect time here (except for foreboding about the future).  Retired several years early, play with the little one all day, swim, work in the garden, fresh veggies and berries.  Greece is a lifetime away and wonderfrul memories of that land are forever engrained.  Same for Italy and Spain which is why the current condition is so pitiful.  The Med nations should never have been expected to compete with the Northern nations and should return to the slow, touristy life they had pre-Euro.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:01 | 2428960 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Patient :  “Doctor, I feel absolutely like shit.”

Doc:  “What a coincidence – you also look like shit.”

Patient:  “Can anything be done?”

Doc:  “Only if you aren’t, in fact, shit.”

Patient:   “You’re a professional – this isn’t time to crack jokes.”

Doc:  “It’s a healthy reaction to the complete dearth of world leadership – in business, politics and government.”

Patient:  “Can it be fixed?”

Doc:  “Not quickly nor easily.  In the meantime, keep your personal values intact, enact change wherever possible, treasure your friends and take time to enjoy what’s uniquely human, things even aliens whizzing by in their spaceships envy --  the music of Bach, Haydn and Mozart, French films of the 50s & 60s, Nabokov, Tabac shaving soap, the English Premier League, Amazon,com, ZeroHedge, etc.

Patient:  “I was really hoping for some drugs.”

Doc:  "Yeah, I know."

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:03 | 2428981 TN Jed
TN Jed's picture

Walton County, Florida on the Gulf coast is having record number of visitors so far this season.  I've been waiting on a vacation downturn for years and it only gets bigger each year, including the BP year.  This whole area is built on tourism and is like living in bizarro land.  People have been flipping homes again this past year with good profit.  Recovery is in full swing here.  I'm the crazy guy who sold his business over the winter. 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:03 | 2429179 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Sad isn't it. The suckers thought it was the bottom now they will be underwater again. Another 30% loss is in the works for them. GM can't even sell cars unless it's with Ally bank sub-prime loans. Sad really, people just never learn.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:42 | 2429114 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Second rule of Zero Hedge, you do not talk about positivity!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:17 | 2428776 Bill D. Cat
Bill D. Cat's picture

JPM 's getting beaten so badly they should hire Sarah Mclachlan to sing background vocals for their next round of PR commercials .

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:24 | 2428794 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just let Bernank murmur something about more easing and all those PM's are right back at their highs fast.

Edit: I read PM not JPM

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:50 | 2428889 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Lets be honest he has been moving the market with fumes from his mouth, Qe or no Qe we are gonna keep on stacking at these pathetic dirt cheap fiat prices and the disconnect in silver is gonna crack in gold!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:16 | 2428777 jomama
jomama's picture

this is the only reason i watch bloomberg.

you can thank me later.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:20 | 2428789 monkeys.pick.bottoms
monkeys.pick.bottoms's picture

Thank you

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:44 | 2428808 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

@0:22   Perhaps she's not a natural blond?  And what is that partly shiny black something strapped to her right thigh???

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 20:54 | 2429754 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

I'm 99% certain that black shiny thing must have been ... http://shop.erostek.com/products/ET302R-Dual-Channel-Wireless-Remote-Power-Unit.html 

which raises the question, who is holding the remote control? I'm hoping for Erin Burnett.

Of course, I suppose it could also have just been part of her wireless mic, but that doesn't seem as fun somehow.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:18 | 2428778 Jacque Itch
Jacque Itch's picture

I have been bombarding Drudge all day with links to Greek bank runs.  Check it out (they even gave it a pretty red color):

www.drudgereport.com

I'm gonna tear this mother out!!!!!!!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:25 | 2428809 youngman
youngman's picture

So when is CNBC going to have guests that will tell you how to survive a collapse of your government....??????? lol..kind of

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:17 | 2428781 nomoneytouse
nomoneytouse's picture

My God investors can be stupid 

 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:21 | 2428801 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Wait until they realize sometime later tonight that Europe is going to open again in the morning.  Gets them every time...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:19 | 2428782 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Tyler: The bank runs have just started... $900 MILLION WITHDRAWN IN A SINGLE DAY!! should be bullish for the ponzi markets to rally on more fake money being printed!!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303505504577406310678151998.html

KABOOOOOOM!!!

HAPPY PONZI!!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:25 | 2428812 youngman
youngman's picture

They are just getting the money ready to pay their taxes......lol

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:41 | 2428858 tallen
tallen's picture

In other news, capitalism is to be renamed debtalism.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:41 | 2428865 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

Wow...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:52 | 2428920 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Do we need money?  Why can't they just keystroke $100,000 into everyone's accounts?  Just don't mark the other side of the ledger.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:17 | 2428783 Shleprock
Shleprock's picture

The 40% decline should clean things up nicely :)

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:19 | 2428785 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

When they have calls they never sell stocks, they always sell commodities uh?

Silver is always going down, worst investment I ever made.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:33 | 2428834 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Cheer up ol' chap.

The game's not over yet.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:48 | 2428892 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

This is just musical chairs, and the music is playing faster now.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:52 | 2428919 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Check the 5 or 10 year, what chart are you looking at?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:13 | 2429012 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

You should probably sell your silver.  I know of several quality dealers in the malls that provide 'Cash for Gold' they might take it off your hands.  And it seems the commercial traders are for some crazy reason loading up on the long side.  Sounds like the perfect time to sell.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:07 | 2429190 LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

Yeah, who wants money for after the inevitable fiat bankpaper explosion anyway

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:00 | 2429167 toady
toady's picture

Buy high, sell low

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:18 | 2428790 whatsthepoint
whatsthepoint's picture

Full-retard???  Can we say that again? 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:20 | 2428791 whatsthepoint
whatsthepoint's picture

Full-retard???  Can we say that again? 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:24 | 2428804 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You just did.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:41 | 2429331 toady
toady's picture

Twice

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 19:34 | 2428821 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

I thought I said you said she said he said Full-Retard, Spider

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:19 | 2428792 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Today was extra special NICE. Nothing better then being able to buy TZA or SMDD DOWN 1%-2% and sell them UP 1%-2%. That's what lets me oay the bills with day trading while.holding core positions that may take multiple years to play out.

Interday vol is the poor hedgy with no OPM salary

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:22 | 2428805 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

>>"holding core positions that may take multiple years to play out."<<

ROTFLMAO!!!

Let me put it bluntly... the world as you know it has less than two years before total implosion. That's the most conservative estimate on the roundtable discussion. The most extreme is saying June of this year. If you're thinking status quo all over again, then LMAO@Y!!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:00 | 2428967 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Uhmmm.. So buy LEAP puts on SPX @ 900. They are crazy cheap right now and even in the Great Deprrssion these contracts paid out.

But even though Im pretty bearish I think SPX < 1,000 is < 50% probable.

But my longterm positions are bearish too. Im just enhancing the big gains with day trading income. Cant be all in tripke levered shorts all the time.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:22 | 2428802 rebelscum1967
rebelscum1967's picture

I'm ca$hy and ready to stack. This is the BTFD but not yet...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:55 | 2428924 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

I'm ca$hy and ready to stack. This is the BTFD but not yet...

*********

I've been buying/averaging into gold miners the past few days-at the close and hey-they're getting cheaper every day-

I see capitulation in gold and the miners--the last Hulbert's gold sentiment indicator was at 2006 lows-

Gold is testing 1540/41 resistance and so far so good-so i'm betting there's a turnaround coming fairly soon and a nasty short squeeze could ensue-

Of course-i could be dead wrong-

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:19 | 2429215 chubbar
chubbar's picture

The miners have been blowtorched for sure. The HUI is 27% below it's 200dma, lower than the low in 08. There are miners trading for less than what they have in the bank for christs sake! Rick Rule is saying he hasn't seen this kind of spread between valuations in his 35 yrs as a trader/investor. There are miners with multi million gold ounce deposits in proven reserves + cash in the bank and the reserves are being valued at zero or a couple of bucks per ounce. This is the craziest fucking shit I've ever heard about. Any folks that are sitting on cash and get in at these levels will see ten baggers plus on their investments. I saw it happen in 08 and this time it's going to be much bigger when it snaps back. This is assuming of course that the bernank capitulates and hits the print button as he is watching the world being sucked into the deflationary vortex. I personally don't see how this stock collapse in the miners is possible at the levels the dow/s&p are trading at, just crazy.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:54 | 2429380 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

This is assuming of course that the bernank capitulates and hits the print button as he is watching the world being sucked into the deflationary vortex.

**************

Gold should react well if the Fed/EU etc. decide to print-but that's isn't the only thing gold is looking at-

Gold is and has been mostly reacting to debt or rather the risk of defaulting on debt-

Money is in short supply when measured to debt and gold is first and foremost-money-

Here's something to think about considering the current deflationary forces gathering steam-

**************

“In the crash of 1929, gold mining shares suffered with the
industrial shares but to a lesser degree. The explosive run came in
1933 when the shares of Homestake Mining went up tenfold. The
shares of Alaska Juneau Mines went from $1.00 to $25.00. Dome
Mines fell from $5.00 to $3.00 in late 1929. In 1931 it went as high
as $7.00 and finally reached the ultimate high of $347/8 in 1938.”

http://www.fame.org/pdf/Gold%20Wars%200-9710380-0-7%20%20-%2001.21.02.pdf

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 19:33 | 2429520 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Nobody is a bigger gold bull here than me, I've been all in since late 02. That being said, if these miners are acting like they are seeing defaults,etc then they are the only stocks seeing it. Fundamentals for gold are off the chart but gold doesn't get a bid. I'm watching the dow/S&P holding OK but the miners sell off, why? Why are the miners sold in order to raise cash but not the non-miners? It is very odd. I would understand a major downdraft if it was happening across the board but that isn't the case. So your quote above is exactly opposite of what is actually being witnessed. The shares are trading below what they were when gold was at $800. Gold is money and these mining companies are printing it, seems much safer than AAPL, etc but not according to the markets. I don't see any rationale for a move to this extreme, but that is just me. I'm buying selectively but I have to admit I'm completely baffled by the action.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:36 | 2429785 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Why are the miners sold in order to raise cash but not the non-miners? It is very odd. I would understand a major downdraft if it was happening across the board but that isn't the case. So your quote above is exactly opposite of what is actually being witnessed. The shares are trading below what they were when gold was at $800

*************

Gold and the gold miners are related-but can trade inverse to each other for quite some time-or one can lose/gain while the other does the opposite-

When for eg: people/funds need money-they sell the winners and hold the losers-it's the wrong thing to do-but they do it-

I've also been in since the beginning and it was not money printing that blew gold out of its 20 year bear--it was credit expansion-here's a chart of printing activity-note from 2000-2008 printing was decreasing-yet gold quadrupled in price-

http://bit.ly/Mi6q8k

Since 2008 base money supply has increased by 60% which has no doubt been another driver-

We cant look at a few months of movement in a 11 year bull market and say one way or the other the exact cause of the trend-it could turn tomorrow-but over a long period we can basically discern what's driving it-

 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:52 | 2428925 Bizaro World
Bizaro World's picture

How will you know when it is time to BTFD and add to 'the stack"?  1530 gold? Was a little surprised to see how fast it dropped through a supposed support at 1550.

check my avatar

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:56 | 2428813 dcb
dcb's picture

I consider myself a rather good trader, but the past couple of days makes no sense to me when I'm looking at charts and making my own, I'd doing ok, bit wtf. when we go up and am keeping very short stops. attempting to make a channel, etc, really having trouble.

I try to chart weekly and daily, selling into new weekly highs along the trand line, and buying closer to weekly lows (regardless of funds, inverse or long). I am starting to be convinced they will not let you buy into an inverse fund going up and make money

you can buy the inverse fund moving into neg territory, and then stop it at the low of the day before?

I know when outside of the daily bollenger bannds to expect a move inward. But the days I hate the most are like thse where you have a sig ramp higher, then lots of selling. sort of why hft should be illegal, or at least taxed n a manner so there is some kind of penalty for it.

I make expectons for market tops and weekly tops. along the trend.

days like today really bother me, there is clearly a lot of funny business happening easily noticed to any regular trader, but of course we can expect the sec to do nothing about quote stuff and front running. it's ramps up to stops, then drops, sucker the regular guy in to buy and dump. really nasty stuff, and when it's allowed to happen there is no wonder trading volumes keep dropping. the exchanges are putting themselves out of long term business by not putting a stop to this abuse.

Note, I will accept the trading loss if it makes some kind of sense I can figure out, but stuff like this. NO!!!

the crude complex  was the worst, uco, sco today!!! there is lots of abuse here, usually I can figure it out and go with the flow, but not today!!!

 

happy to share charts if anyone's interested.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:04 | 2428979 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

Lol i have bought into the market twice now expecting compromise out of greece.

Only down a percent and a half so far. Merely a flesh wound.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:20 | 2429220 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Join the club. FX Trader here...and a consistent 5% per month casher. But the last two days I have been flat - not wanting to join the fracas. Was off for two weeks.....and can't seem to get a good signal as to entering this long USD club-fest.

I use simple charts. MACD and 60 SMA's, along with consensus support/resistance from various sources. Daily charts for long term trends. Concentrate on 5 pairs only.

I have a feeling the Fed is going to spring QE 3,4,5, and 6 on us at any time, in which the dollar will tank yet again, in this Ponzi money bullshit scheme.

What this country needs is a real good, thorough douching of the many corporate/military industrial maggots, along with a Tyler Durden-style burning down of all major banks.

A good water-cooled Thompson machine gunning of Congress as well, along with firebombing all the major "news" media offices - from FUX to CNN.

A total re-rack. Scorched earth.

...but that's me after watching this shite of two days past now.....

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 19:18 | 2429481 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Funny, holding EDZ, for a few WEEKS now, and I dont see anything unexpected....  Its very very simple pump it on no volume HFT quote stuffing, juice a few shorts,  and then sell into the pop, rinse and repeat.....  Thats exactly what these houses are doing....  This market hasnt even been close to a washout day, its not a market by the way, its a Casino, and with the help of Zero Hedge you can generally count the cards........ 8-10 down a day can continue for a long while to get to 1000 S&P

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:27 | 2428818 SIOP
SIOP's picture

The 2:45 Plunge Protection Team didnt show up this afternoon  :(

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:41 | 2428856 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They are there , walking it down and giving Ben the cover to print. If they weren't walking it down this thing would spiral out of control.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:30 | 2428826 monopoly
monopoly's picture

They had a late lunch.

And I guess JCP is not selling enough jeans. Gulp!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:30 | 2428828 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

From the very switched-on Andy Hoffman today:

Let's start with a quote from the venerable Richard Russell, one of the earliest influences in my "TEN YEARS OF HEAVEN AND HELL."  He may be reluctant to give up on his archaic "Dow Theory" - rendered obsolete years ago by government manipulation - but is perhaps the finest macroeconomic forecast of our time, per below:

 

Stay OUT of all stocks and be very patient.  Holding any stocks over time will be a loser -- so it's simple -- don't hold them; stay in cash and gold coins until I think of something better.

 

Contrary to "Modern Portfolio Theory" - which erroneously tells you stocks are the best long-term asset class - and "Efficient Market Theory" - which suggests markets are "correctly" priced - stocks are NEITHER good long-term investments NOR freely-traded.  Even with maniacal 24/5 PPT support, the "DOW JONES PROPAGANDA AVERAGE" is barely higher over the past 12 years, down when adjusting for survivor bias, given that four former components - GM, AIG, Citibank, and Eastman Kodak - were deleted due to bankruptcy or reorganization, and down significantly in REAL terms. Contd.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:47 | 2428888 Spider
Spider's picture

Its all part of the gameplan folks ... knock the PMs down before a massive global liquidity pump.  Greek citizens are withdrawing money from the banking system and the ECB is going to have to do something or the greek banking system implodes...

I'd love to sell my PMs and buy back lower BUT i'm afraid that the announcement of a massive ECB intervention will come and gold will be up $100 and silver 15% overnight. (remember 2008 when gold jumped $100 in a day during its massive downtrend?)

Just too dangerous for me to sell PMs right now and i'd be playing into the dump and then pump Central bankers

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:33 | 2428830 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Funny how no one is mentioning QE3 anymore.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:01 | 2428962 Bizaro World
Bizaro World's picture

QE3.  There I said it....and it is definitely coming, though it will have some BS crafty name like "GROW" or "TREND" or "PUMP" as some people are now actually aware that QE is "badness Danny" for their purchasing power and has diminishing returns.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 19:21 | 2429491 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

how about pro-growth balance sheet expansion?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2428963 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

JPMorgan and MF Global trading losses are what you get when you quantitative ease anything !

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:33 | 2428835 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Couldn't have been planned better.  Double bitch-slap commodities while you keep the ES relatively pumped.  No better pre-election QE scenario than that.  Keep the sheeple feeling wealthy and happier at the pump.

We may need to wait until until December to get the crash we need.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:48 | 2428890 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

CNBC News, reporting on the JPM shareholder's meeting just held, reports:

"A vote to strip Dimon of the chairman's title won only 40 percent."

 

Only? That is a pretty huge percentage of shareholder votes, as "Board Recommends a Vote Against" goes...

Only? Does anyone here take CNBC seriously? What a bunch of kiss-ass shit in lieu of reporting.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 19:20 | 2429496 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Many votes were cast before the announcement per bloomberg

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:47 | 2428891 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Structural sinking in slow motion with FED QE liquidity pumps trying to keep pace with the brackish sea water coming into the lower hold of the ship U.S.S.A. Ponzi.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:56 | 2428939 dbTX
dbTX's picture

This market is hopelessly rigged, Corzine is still running arond bundeling money for Obama and Jamie ain't going nowhere

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2428950 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

This 7-day pattern is akin to the an animal coming out of their hole when the sun rises, collecting food and water and then going back into their hole for protection from predators before the sun sets.

Bottom line, the reality of risk is probably sinking in, but the careless addicts wanna play with Ben's free money...so long as the sun is up today.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:09 | 2428999 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

Ok tomorrow

Tomorrow has to be an up day
Germany and france will talk compromise with greece. Everyone will kiss and hold hands.

Austerity will be out. Growth will be in.

Surely there is a little more can to be kicked?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:16 | 2429010 navy62802
navy62802's picture

I don't know about that. News of the bank run in Greece is getting out (i.e. the front page of Drudge reads "Bank Runs Hit Greece" in bold, red letters). And once that kind of information gets out, the jig is up. Hell, that kind of story doesn't have to even be true in order to actually induce a run on deposits.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:50 | 2429140 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

Well Drudge reports lots of things and on occasion he actually gets something right.  Is this one of them?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:55 | 2429157 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Seems like it. But it's not necessarily the accuracy of the report that's concerning. It's the fact that the information is now being broadcast in the mainstream. ZH has been reporting on capital flight out of Greek banks for a while now. But once the media latches onto the fact and blasts the headline "Bank Runs Hit Greece," it's game over.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 20:31 | 2429679 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Joe, You may be right about towmorrow -...'has to be an up day." 

Everything you said was logical and rational and fits with this last year and a half of can kicking Greece.

And you forgot to mention the last 8 out of 10 days have been down. 

But you know the old saw about rationality and markets and your solvency.

I don't know what the fuck the markets are gonna do tomorrow, which is gonna save me a bunch of coin, because I may not go in -

got out early today and nicely ahead, so I'm a gonna sit and watch a bit. The futures right now (2030 New Yahk time) are stuck more or less on the close, so it looks like nobody knows WTF is on. The major indexes are all more or less falling off the left shoulder toward the left elbow, for the chartists out there, the omen seekers are stuck on lightning striking Hollande's plane on his first try for handholding with Ms Merkel, and I ain't sure she is willing to embrace growth full on - there will be a bunch of temporizing and an attemtpt for a nice photo op afterwards, but I suspect progress toward growth and away from austerity will be measured with a microscope.

For sure, if Greece paid the 450 mill euro bonds today, and they apparently did, there is more can to be kicked.  

So I'll call a weak and tremulous opening to the up side without much conviction or volume, followed by a see-saw around some line above the open, and a graceful swan dive to less than a percent below the open at the close.

But I probably won't put any money on it...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:02 | 2429171 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Bloomcrap or CNBS had a small segment on a Nanex chart showing 1 minute of HFT.  ZH has been putting up those charts for a while now.  I think the MSM is finally realizing that Retail traders aren't going to buy the BS no matter how hard they try and hopefully realizing that everyone is putting them on for comic relief and not meaningful insight into what is going on.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:12 | 2429194 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

And the weekly look at the SP500 appears bearish.

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-weekly-11-2012/

 

Bounce?  Possible.  Not probable.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 19:40 | 2429546 Venerability
Venerability's picture

From Seeking Alpha:

Dear DOGs,   You have pushed the limit BEYOND the limit. Nobody cares to play your Game anymore.   You are turning the coming Federal investigations into Jamie Dimon and JPM into something you distinctly do NOT want, in which everything is on the table:   *** Did MF Global go under because of its relationship with JPM?   *** How closely are JPM's swaps connected with Gold price suppression?   *** How much are the swaps in aid of managing the largest Silver Short position in human history?   *** How has JPM been helping out its Hedgie Buddies with such a distorted Short Euro position, it can only be supported by organized efforts to skew all world currency markets, including Gold and Silver, even if it puts the entire planet at extreme risk?   *** Why did the three Bubblevisions, especially CNBC, have to embrace JPM as their new Hero Bank, after Goldman began to implode?   *** How have NewsCorp and its Dow Jones units cooperated with the Bubblevisions in skewing Market Sentiment, or sometimes led them in this effort?   *** Why have world markets seen such an exceptionally large falloff in participation by retail investors, small funds, and small institutions of all kinds, as Sentiment Bullying, aided by Algorithmic Bullying, means anyone without the very deepest pockets is no longer welcome?   *** And do we really want to tolerate any longer a Computer Game Market, "ruled" by just a few nasty, dirty, silly, malicious little men, who think the Crash of 2008 was not only "necessary," but just terrific! and who are champing at the bit to cause another one?
Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:36 | 2429879 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

It's time for that dead cat to bounce.  My bet is for tomorrow, at least 1.2% on the SPX, a little more on the NDX.

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