Market Deja Deja Deja... Oh Forget It!

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today was special - full-retard kind of special - as the S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) did a double-dip deja vu move extending the series to seven days in row of early buying and late selling as ES closed at new cycle lows and a plethora of other asset classes all dropped aggressively to multi-month records. Credit markets remain the indicator for weakness and while JPM's exaggerated the moves, bear in mind that IG credit is only correcting back to where its underlying names have been trading (forced rich - too high - by JPM's previous actions) and the late-day sell-off dragged stocks down near to convergence. Some early stability in IG9 provided a quiet rally in financials but as the afternoon began the selling restarted in the credit index (which pushed to new cycle wides - despite the skew collapsing - as momentum is in charge now). Commodities slid on USD strength and liquidation pressures as we note Gold held in well (better than its peers) until the last hour or so (which has the smell of margin/collateral calls). Equities recoupled with Treasuries today after 3 days of exuberance (again).

S&P 500 e-mini futures continues their downward progression...

Buying ES at the day-session open and exiting athe European close; then selling at 2pmET and exiting at the US day session close has been a very profitable trade the last week or so (8 winners of 10 trades with huge positive skew on P/L)..

Credit leads stocks lower...

financials ended the day -0.5% but we note JPM managed some small gains - which has the smell of an RV trade against XLF - as the rest of the TBTFs all dropped further with Margin Stanley now -6.5% YTD...

but financial stocks remain 'exuberant' relative to the consistently correct credit markets...

and commodities continued to slide...

Equities recouple with Treasuries...

the rest of the market was just plain ugly...

  • IG credit widest since first week of Jan - 4 months
  • HY credit at YTD wides - now unchanged YTD
  • HYG (the high yield bond ETF) only back to one-month lows
  • USA protection is at 4 month highs
  • S&P 500 cash is at 3 month lows - only 6.6% off highs
  • VIX is closing at 4 month highs
  • USD (DXY) is just shy of the year's highs which would take us back to September 2010 highs
  • EURUSD is at 4 month lows holding the 1.27 handle for now.
  • 30Y TSY at 4 month low yields with a 2.91% handle
  • 10Y TSY at 7 month low yields with a 1.75% handle today
  • WTI at 5 month lows holding above $92 handle for now but a break takes us to early November levels
  • Gold is unchanged YTD now - modestly above the 12/30 swing lows which would take us back to July 2011 levels
  • Silver is unchanged YTD now
  • Copper in unch YTD and at around mid Jan lows.
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Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:12 | 2428755 Cdad
Cdad's picture

If the dumb ass HFT guys would quit marking everything up ahead of the open, the market could properly bottom...at least short term.  But of course, they are dumb asses.

As such, the market will continue to be "sold to them."

What a joke of a market.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:20 | 2428786 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All the 'markets' have had for 2-3 years is Hopium and promises of more impending free money...now they want proper pricing since theyre losing? 'Sold to them' will continue. 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:26 | 2428817 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I have no argument with you there, Dog.  My point is that, if the market ever decides it wants long side participation [which it does not seem to want], it would boot the speed of light guys out, and people could actually come into the market on the long side in a reasonable way.

These computer guys have simply shattered the market.  The exodus shall continue until such time as Duncan Niederauer's computer room is unplugged...and also, of course, these TBTF f'n banks are simply done away with.

Roll on Greater American Depression, roll on.  Thanks for this wasteland B. Bernanke and J. Dimon.  Way to go, gentlemen!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:39 | 2428848 Manthong
Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:44 | 2428870 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Greece GDP drops 6.2% in Q1

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=1989

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:54 | 2428937 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Well surprise, surprise, surprise.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:43 | 2428872 redpill
redpill's picture

Please can we stop talking about all this pesky economic stuff.  Haven't you heard there are more important things to talk about, like how much our President loves gay people?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:18 | 2429014 toady
toady's picture

The "drone" thread earlier today was completely hijacked with that shit!

I posted on that thread, then went back a couple hours later to see responses and read 6 or 7 homo-erotic responses in a row!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:42 | 2429104 Elwood P Suggins
Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:46 | 2429129 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Keep this in mind - Most of the weapons sold by Walmart have been sold to poor people.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:36 | 2429317 sof_hannibal
sof_hannibal's picture

Benny B: green shoots everywhere... don't u see them..?
.. a functionally retarted sheltered, academic puppet for too big not to fail... whose mentor, Alan, had to remove his PhD dissertation from the public, because it had to with housing bubbles...

Front row seats to the collapse and reset of society....you cant help yourself, except by picturing the analogy of Rome (Greece) burning-- buring to rubble, while Dimon and his owners and puppets party to the end... nothing left to do, but head to the colosseum, and watch some more bachelorette...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:38 | 2428849 fourchan
fourchan's picture

bingo

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:58 | 2428953 ACP
ACP's picture

Looksl kinda like a slinky. Maybe an algo to duplicate the movement of a slinky would make bank in this BS market.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:23 | 2429041 asteroids
asteroids's picture

All the bullshit happens before the market opens Why bother making a bet?  Perhaps ZH can enlighten us on all the crap that happens during the 60mins after the market closes.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:15 | 2428761 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Silver is about 25% off its high while the market is about 6%, volatility seems crazy.  What happens when the market really disconnects...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:14 | 2428766 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

VXX has been performing nicely these past few days.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:23 | 2428807 unununium
unununium's picture

I got VXX'ed, how about you?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:37 | 2428840 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

I'm VXX'ed too brah

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:36 | 2428846 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

It was payday in Greece.  Greeks withdrew 710 million euros on Monday.  That's gotta feel a bit liberating.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:43 | 2429109 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

Wow their retail sales should really go up this month.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:26 | 2428810 SMG
SMG's picture

Everytime someone mentions VXX on here the darn thing goes down.   Just saying.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:40 | 2428855 Cdad
Cdad's picture

@junkyard

 

I think silver has already disconnected/dislocated...and further, that is one place I started buying today...gently.  Using wide scales here...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:45 | 2428874 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Yea I'm watching and waiting for it to settle a bit before getting in, with my luck it'll just correct back up 20% overnight one day and that will be that

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2428952 Cdad
Cdad's picture

That's just it...silver never really settles.  It is constantly wild. 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:52 | 2429373 Strider52
Strider52's picture

I was sure it wouldn't get below 28. Heck, anything below 30 is a buy.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:52 | 2428910 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Silver still expensive compared to gold if you look back 3 years. Gold will continue going down as we play the deflation trade. Silver will go down 1.5x Gold. When stocks are washed out and gold < spx and QE is official gold and silver will rip. 1,340 was H&S support. Next stop 1,275. Then unload half your shorts/VXX.

Ps ZH just got a shout out on CNBC re MS

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:50 | 2428915 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

fuck no. silver is going down to around 15/16.

gold, 1350

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:54 | 2428928 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Gold will cross SPX at 1,250ish. Silver goes down 2x as much. Then you want to buy PMs or if you are froggy German industrials (which will be down another 30% plus EUR at 1.2)

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:20 | 2429023 Boston
Boston's picture

Sounds about right. But just in case:

I've got GTC orders for physical Ag starting at 25 and down every 2.

Gold at 1500 and down every 50.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:13 | 2428763 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

Clearance sale on PM's beaches.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:42 | 2428866 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Jamie?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:19 | 2428768 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

So what special something to stop the European freefall do you think Hollande and Merkel will come up with in their grand meeting tonight?  

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:15 | 2428769 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

"Complacency is a state of mind that exists only in retrospective: it has to be shattered before being ascertained. "

- Vladimir Nabokov

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:16 | 2428772 Timmay
Timmay's picture

Is anyone else feeling really shitty out there?  I would love to have some guys come on here and post some good news on a productive business venture, or even some anecdotal stories about positive things that might be going on somewhere else.

Feels like a morgue in here.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:22 | 2428800 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

My fruit trees and vegetable garden are doing well so far this Spring.  Delicious, affordable, and healthy food for the family and some for neighbors too.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:27 | 2428822 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Best investment advice I've seen all day.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:41 | 2428857 fourchan
fourchan's picture

long fruit

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:20 | 2429034 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

Some guy in the Obesity discussion yesterday said fruit gives you fatty liver. I'm sticking to scotch!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:17 | 2429209 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Hmmm, I heard that bourbon was better for you.  It's recommended as part of any balanced diet.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:50 | 2428908 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Likewise.  Best of all, the price for pecans and other nuts is going through the roof.  Going to be a good season.  At almost $100 per pound on some asian black markets I may need to start traveling more.  Funny how when a government destroy a market, the people always build another.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:37 | 2428841 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

FYI, I live on an ordinary suburban lot which can fit lots of fruit trees around the perimeter if you get dwarf (grows to only 8 ft or so) or semi-dwarf size stock.  Even an appartment porch can fit a couple mini-dwarf or columnar apple trees (4-6ft.) in pots as well as a small container garden for greens/herbs. 

Really satisfying to see the ancient magic of food growing.  Kinda balances out all the craziness.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2428954 smb12321
smb12321's picture

We all have it good when posters can spend hours yelling and debating on-line.  Perfect time here (except for foreboding about the future).  Retired several years early, play with the little one all day, swim, work in the garden, fresh veggies and berries.  Greece is a lifetime away and wonderfrul memories of that land are forever engrained.  Same for Italy and Spain which is why the current condition is so pitiful.  The Med nations should never have been expected to compete with the Northern nations and should return to the slow, touristy life they had pre-Euro.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:01 | 2428960 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Patient :  “Doctor, I feel absolutely like shit.”

Doc:  “What a coincidence – you also look like shit.”

Patient:  “Can anything be done?”

Doc:  “Only if you aren’t, in fact, shit.”

Patient:   “You’re a professional – this isn’t time to crack jokes.”

Doc:  “It’s a healthy reaction to the complete dearth of world leadership – in business, politics and government.”

Patient:  “Can it be fixed?”

Doc:  “Not quickly nor easily.  In the meantime, keep your personal values intact, enact change wherever possible, treasure your friends and take time to enjoy what’s uniquely human, things even aliens whizzing by in their spaceships envy --  the music of Bach, Haydn and Mozart, French films of the 50s & 60s, Nabokov, Tabac shaving soap, the English Premier League, Amazon,com, ZeroHedge, etc.

Patient:  “I was really hoping for some drugs.”

Doc:  "Yeah, I know."

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:03 | 2428981 TN Jed
TN Jed's picture

Walton County, Florida on the Gulf coast is having record number of visitors so far this season.  I've been waiting on a vacation downturn for years and it only gets bigger each year, including the BP year.  This whole area is built on tourism and is like living in bizarro land.  People have been flipping homes again this past year with good profit.  Recovery is in full swing here.  I'm the crazy guy who sold his business over the winter. 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 18:03 | 2429179 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Sad isn't it. The suckers thought it was the bottom now they will be underwater again. Another 30% loss is in the works for them. GM can't even sell cars unless it's with Ally bank sub-prime loans. Sad really, people just never learn.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 17:42 | 2429114 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Second rule of Zero Hedge, you do not talk about positivity!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:17 | 2428776 Bill D. Cat
Bill D. Cat's picture

JPM 's getting beaten so badly they should hire Sarah Mclachlan to sing background vocals for their next round of PR commercials .

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:24 | 2428794 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just let Bernank murmur something about more easing and all those PM's are right back at their highs fast.

Edit: I read PM not JPM

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:50 | 2428889 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Lets be honest he has been moving the market with fumes from his mouth, Qe or no Qe we are gonna keep on stacking at these pathetic dirt cheap fiat prices and the disconnect in silver is gonna crack in gold!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 16:16 | 2428777 jomama
jomama's picture

this is the only reason i watch bloomberg.

you can thank me later.

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