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Market Implies Greek Devaluation To 1530 Drachma Versus Euro
On the day when Greek 1Y yields broke above 400% for the first time, a consideration of just what Greece would look like post-exit is perhaps fruitful. Looking at hypothetical forward rates (generated from covered interest rate parity between EURUSD FX and EMU sovereign interest rates), MSCI has an interesting analysis of what a decoupled Drachma (and for that matter Lira, Escudo, and Irish Pound) would look like. Given the Greeks entered the EMU in January 2001 at 340.75 Drachma to the Euro, the current market is pricing in a massive devaluation to around 1530 Drachma to the Euro. Perhaps as further evidence of the market's perspective that a devaluation is likely, from extremely high correlations just over a year ago, the implied new Greek Drachma vs Euro has dropped to almost negligible correlation against an implicit Deutschmark vs Euro. As the PSI discussions go from bad to worse (as we expected and discussed yesterday), it seems the market is increasingly expecting at best a coercive agreement (if not outright exit).
The implied forward exchange rates (inferred from interest rate parity differentials) across the various peripheral European nations (as of mid December). This is the devaluation against the Euro so a ~4.5:1 devaluation as is evidently priced into Greek curves implies the 340.75 Drachma to Euro rate will devalue to around 1530 Drachma to the Euro. The Portuguese are obviously better but face significant devaluations also.
And the decreasing correlation between an implied Drachma and Deutschmark suggest the market is increasingly expecting this exit or devaluation to happen. This is evident when one notes that even 1Y GGBs are now breaking to record yield levels - over 400% for the first time today:
Source: MSCI
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BULLISH! Take it and bid it!
More money means I can buy more stuff right?!?
Going back to the Drachma is the only realistic option the Greeks have left. Don't get me wrong, that will implode within of year or two of it's issue as well.
http://ericsprott.blogspot.com/
the longer they wait, the worse it will get. They should of bailed on the Euro last year. It doesnt pay to be a team player if your position on the team is piss boy.
No kidding, the only ones keeping them in are the handpicked technocrates that are running Greece. Much of the market believes that Greece will exit the Euro and default, because how in gods name can they afford more debt when they can't pay the debt they already have. Also this "voluntary" cut of the debt that they are wanting private institutions and individuals to do isn't possible, even with that sad attempt at changing Greek law saying they have to do it if a certain percentage agrees. Because for one, any attempt like that or change is considered a Credit event pure and simple. And if it's a credit event then they can run to the insurance companies and get 100% on their money back instead of taking any cut.
Two, who would take this deal anyway I have insurance in case of a credit event and I will take 100% over 50% or really 15% cash because the 35% in debt is as much guaranteed like the other debt. What isn't being said and being looked over all this time is the banks and insurance companies that insured this debt. If you the EU (I still say America should be forced to bailout this more since it's their banks and insurance companies on the line) and the ECB are more concerned about not having a credit event and having the insurance pay out, whats with the concern. UNLESS THE BANKS AND INSURANCE COMPANIES IN THE US DON'T HAVE THE MONEY TO PAY ON THE INSURANCE!!!!!!
And if they don't, then whatever bonds they are holding is worthless and who's to say that the insurance will payout in the future anyway if a credit event happens. Also there is the CDS that where made and paid for by institutions and private people that don't own any of the debt, just the CDS. So what about them, they have been paying their insurance fees (along with the bondholders) for years and for a change to happen and not call it a credit event isn't possible. It's essentially adhoc law that the EU would have to do and if they do that it threatens all the debt in the EU because who's to say that the insurance companies will payout or the EU will allow you to collect (which I still say they have no leg to stand on, they are just browbeating) 100% on the insurance in case of spain or other countries in default even to go back to Greece which will be in trouble again.
If I was the EU or running the ECB bank I would go to Washington and tell the Fed that they have to backstop this debt and if not the whole deal is done and the event will happen. And it won't be on the 26 billion dollars but the whole Greek debt which is at least 300 billion (I think it's more). Imagine the banks and insurance companies having to payout on 300 billion dollars at once.
Yeah. On the one hand I wish they would just get on with it. On the other, there will be the shitstorm in the markets - maybe the biggest banking/insurance crisis in history, and the Greeks will be VERY lucky if they get 1530 Drachmas/Euro. Ratio is likely to be in the tens of thousands to one if history repeats itself.
I used to holiday regularly in Greece, Portugal and Spain. Everything was ridiculously cheap compared to home (the UK). Even going to France was cheaper than staying at home.
And then came the Euro.
Goodbye forever to cheap holidays.
BUT WAIT!! There is a brighter cheaper future ahead. Roll on the end of the Euro hyperinflation monster!
I remember those days. I used to pop over to Calais every December to do the Christmas shopping until about 8yrs ago. My mum used to force us to go on coach tours of Greece when I was a little nipper and we weren't well off in those days.
Sure, the Greeks will eventually have a better future, and we'll have fun paying 1970s prices for holidays there, but they will have a very tough few years after reverting back to their Drachma, imo.
1944: Ratio of old Drachma to new Drachma 50,000,000,000 to 1
1954: Revaluation of Drachma 1000 to 1
I lived in Greece as a kid - 1963 to 1965. I also visited it many times as a student and later on. I remember the drachma being 80 to the pound sterling. I once ended up in Mykanos sharing an apartment with 4 Greek ladies from Athens. Had a great time but could not understand why there were so many gays - it was illegal in those days.
Most of the Greeks want to stay in the euro because they do not want to take the devaluation. Pensioners want to get paid in Euros. The Greek politicians and their pals stole most of the money dumped on greece by the corrupt EU. Just the same politicians and unionized govt workers throughout the west with the bankers looting the taxpayers.
And what you want to put in? Another piece of Amrerican useless money?
I have first dibs on one of the smaller islands when they go up for aution. In fact, who wants to form a cartel with me and corner the Greek Isles market? :>)
Count me in.
Kos? Crete?
Mykonos baby, and I am not even gay.
Are you sure? ;)
yeah, I'm sure, first went there in the early 70s. those were the days my friends....
You'll have to talk to Poseidon first...Oh I'm sorry CogDis...I didn't see your Avatar...SIR!!!
Do you have real money or just USD?
Can I have first dibs on Folegandros?
I'm a drachmillionaire!
5X devaluation is ruinous. I have a sinking feeling that when the Greeks wake up and realize that they are not getting back the 350Drachma/Euro they paid on entering the monetary union, they are going to go completely ape shit. They'll want to know who walked away with 80% of their nations treasury.
And I'm not sure it was any Greeks who got it.
On the contrary, 5x devaluation may be the charm. I remember Indian rupee devalued 5 times in 1990. And look at India today. Default/Devaluation may cause lot of pain but Greece will become more competitive and their economy will start to mend.
India rode a huge wave of value exports from the US, as they picked up lucrative outsourcing contracts. I know because I was in the middle of it. The amount of money in motion was staggering.
That particular bonanza is about played out now. Nor will there be another, not from the US; "outsourcing" is about to become a campaign issue, and not in a good way either.
Don't know if the Greek economy will look attractive enough at 5X compression, given their systemic problems. Do they have a viable manufacturing base? Large population of English speakers? Copious natural resources? No? Okay then good luck digging out of that particular hole.
Beaches, gyros, wine! Too bad the women are so swarthy, though.
True about the women. It is one of the few place I know of where the men look better than the women. :)
Man - you can go from one end of Europe to another. Eastern, Western, North and most of the South - you can find pretty women all over. Then there is Greece.
Apeshit is closer than you think...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2085163/Children-dumped-streets-...
Children 'dumped in streets by Greek parents who can't afford to look after them any more'By Lee Moran Last updated at 7:05 PM on 11th January 2012
Mothers dumping children with notes of apology attached.
When they can get over their shame, it will come unglued for real.
I think the media is looking for anomalies in these Greek stories... All said and done, US has some shitty conditions too in the major urban centers with people living way under the poverty line. I find it hard to fathom a loving mother leaving her kid on the street. Did GRE already become a 3rd world country?
At least they don't shoot their kids:
Texas mom denied food stamps shoots kids and kills self
Starting to get crazy out there.
Truly dreadful things happening in Greece. From 19th December http://tiny.cc/9gkqq
Four. Hundred. Percent.
Say that to yourself slowly a couple times.
Yeah. Creepy.
And our market masters continue to suggest that central bank intervention shall fix all. Apparently, the market is as meaningless as it is dysfunctional.
Brilliant!
im fairly new here so bare with me while i ask what is probably obvious to the rest of you... 400%? what does that mean?
At the simplest I suppose it means that the Greek government promises to pay you $4 to borrow $1 from you, for a year.
The expectation on the street is that they won't pay you back anything, not the $4 nor the original $1, and bond buyers can go pound sand. So the yield is actually meaningless as it is unlikely anyone is taking the bait.
If it means anything, it means that the Greek bond market is toast. And as goes bonds, so goes the government. Is the best guess.
thanks. that's what i thought, but it's so ridiculous, i figured i had to be wrong.
crudely...
{1 + yield(Greece)} x (expected recovery rate) = 1 + yield(Germany) ~= 1
So approximately... (expected recovery rate) = 1 / {1 + yield(Greece)} = 1/5
Implies 80% loss of principal (Greece defaults but stays in Euro, or Greece honours debts in "new Drachma" at 5:1 devaluation)
how do CDS figure into this?
expected recovery rate is weighting across all bond holders. Those with CDS, if the CDS actually pay out, lose nothing. So implied recovery rate for the uninsured is actually lower.
ZH has been going on and on about EURO - blah blah this, blah blah that. Where is EURO now, since 10 years - up nearly 50% against the dollar.
all these EURO trashing for past 2 years looks like pure bullshit.
The ^ above ^ verbiage is a prime factual reason for the U.S. to return to Ron Paul's sound money principals imho.
Ron Paul 2012
We don't need Ron Paul's Hard Gold money. We don't need no F**king Govt to decide price of anything including Gold.
We just need to wait for paper Gold to crash while physical Gold becomes unavailable. Until then just accumalate and wait for freegold.
For the red arrow crew, the euro is still up against the dollar over its lifetime.
If we're talking USD crosses, take a look at CAD, AUD, CHF, JPY. All up a lot more than EURUSD.
And i know ive missed some shitty less liquid curr too... but most are up against the dollar.
The correct question you should be asking is what the next 10 years will look like for the EUR.
yeah exactly where Benny and the Fed want it to be. Banksters WANT and NEED to Dollar to be low. Low currency wins in a world where everyone thinks exports is the only gdp game in town.
There are many Irish from the Republic of Ireland taking their Euro's across the border into Northern Ireland and converting to British Pounds! Even through the din and mind fucking nonsensical noise of the X Factor and Dancing with the Imbeciles, the sheep are catching on!
I'm glad to hear that. People there deserve better than the bank loving crony gubbmint and the new overlords from IMF/EU/ECB. What's a better way to "lift the middle finger" than to get out of the fake currency for good. If the gubbmint doesn't have the balls to do it then people just have to do it by themselves.
I agree Dick; the Irish really got screwed when the EU made us bailout the banks. Taxpayers got all the pain and no gain.
Well, well, I applaud the Irish for exchanging the EUR. But change it to GBP???
Although the dollar is fucked, too, but I would still just go the bank and change into something else (may be AUD, CAD...).
Of course, for any sensible person, you would just exchange into PM, but I think the sheeple are not there yet.
Just remember: he who defects and devalues first devalues best.
Ab-so-lutely
Politicians and banksters will be swinging from light poles, but do I pity the poor Greek people who were led astray and bought into Socialism...
Poor Greek people who need to retire at 50 beacuse they are in "hazardous occupations" like hairdressing? Bah!
give it up, really..socialism. is that all you got. Why dont you just create a tag that says" I dont understand a fucking thing with regard to world finance" and be done with it already.
Well they will be living off of fish for an awful long time...
As I opeened my can of sardines in mustard sauce (new years diet) the other day, I thought about how nice it would be to drift wood grill some fresh ones on a beach.
The chart seems to imply the new Spanish Peseta will be nearly as strong as the new Mark, in any case stronger than the current Euro??? Can someone please explain if I've got it wrong.
... ??? ?????
Good riddance!
this means greece will be a very cheap travel destination in a few years
yep, go over with a few bucks, comeback with a few islands and a few acient artifacts.
Wouldnt be surprised if the whole fucking country was on ebay. Worlds largest yard sale. Make me an offer..
The Greeks should stop pissing around and switch back to the Drachma pronto. Thats the best thing they could do for themselves. No other way to get outise money back in. Of course the string pullers in the background do not want that to happen. Get back in line, atten-hut!
Greece is way past the point of leaving Euro now.
I can't see the italian lira in the first chart ...
ooops ! I've seen now. It's overlapped with the irish ...
... which fact provides little comfort to either the Italians or the Irish.
Bank runs and cheap Greek vacations are forecast. I figure about 20 cents on the American Drachma may be what the USD is headed for too.
The shadow gold price according to Brodsky at QBAMCO is $9500+ per the Bretton Woods standard calculation using money supply -- so either gold is undervalued and selling at .20 cents on the USD, or the USD is overvalued by about 450%. The American Drachma is dead, long live the Drachma...
This is BS.
1. Greece will decide if we exit euro and not the Germans or POPEY
2. Transition period 2-3 Y, that is, MARKET WAR on Italy/Portugal/Austria///and..... POLAND !
3. The scenario i am well aware off is, 1 Euro-534 GRD, but again, there no parliament to vote either for the exiot or for the new exchange rate !!!... NO WAY
4. Wait for Spain until the end of January
PP
Poland?
Last i checked, economy is one of the best ones in Europe..no joke. Free floating currency (albeit the PLN moves with the EUR), monetary and fiscal policy of their choosing, good demographics to support the next half century, decent inflation with a 4.50% rate at the CB, and lots of business from the CIS countries lookig to enter the core EU via the East.
Theres a reason why my coffee in Warsaw last week cost 14PLN...
WE LL SEE..
YOU CAN HOLD ME ON THAT ONE...! MAYBE THE "LAST", BUT WILL FALL HARD.
PP
14 Zloty!!
A fool and his money are soon parted.
but, but, but, all is well in grechen land, they said so there is a deal on the table.
WHy are you being so bearish the sun still shines on Delphi. I know it was there and it cost me nothing.
Ps : Just like in Hungaaaary, all is well, Orban promises democracy for all Hungarians who are christians and have ToKay in their blood, like true Magyars. If you have Tokaaaay, your are Okkk.
Which if true only proves that they never actually left behind the tribal Middle Ages. This is not a bad thing actually since we are all headed there now. At least the Hungarians still recognize their roots and should have no trouble adapting.
Start adding zeros. Greeks will need to buy dollars or euros in order to buy fuel. None of the crude producers will accept drachmas as their worth vanishes.
Greek auto sales are plummeting. Ditto all the other peripheral nations' sales. Greeks will lack the hard currency and credit to buy cars.
Fuel will be a black market product. Hyperinflation will be the result as Greeks swap drachmas at ever greater discounts for the harder to find dollars and euros. After cycles of 'new' drachmas, the Greeks will start using the dollar. Fuel will cost Greeks $50/gallon or more. Greece will de-industrialize. Greek villages, towns, islands and land will become valuable to Greeks who will return to ancestral properties and take up abandoned occupations (already underway).
This lifestyle change will be imitated across Europe as it goes slowly (quickly) broke. The question is whether the Europeans can support the entire population of Europe by old-school methods? Can France and others decommission her nuclear time bombs in its insolvency and ruin before these destroy the country for tens of thousands of years?
We are certain to find out.
Wait a sec...the Deutschmark would devalue against the Euro?
Somebody's high.
Moved this comment.
@Schmuck
I think the chart implies the Mark will increase in value vis a vis the Euro, Makes sense. What doesn't make sense it would appear to be in company with the Peseta. I live in Spain and the ecomomy is, how shall we say? in bad shape. I should have thought the Peseta would be devalued along the lines of the Lira.
WaPo has a story on the devastating effects of the crisis on the Greek people. Horrific reading. Well on its way to becoming a third-world toilet:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-greece-fears-that-austerity-is-killing-the-economy/2012/01/09/gIQA9hAFpP_print.html
Greece has been forced to cut spending and raise taxes in the middle of a severe downturn, slashing pensions as well as state salaries, jobs and services. As public confidence has evaporated, consumer spending — the biggest driver of the economy — has plunged, generating cascading losses at private firms. The result is a dizzying economic plummet and social crisis that is bringing the cradle of Western civilization to its knees.
“Conditions have deteriorated so dramatically that doctors in this country now believe that the Greek crisis is no longer just a financial crisis but a humanitarian crisis,” said Dimitris Varnavas, the president of the Federation of Greek Hospital Doctors’ Unions.
The swelling numbers of “new poor” using Athens shelters and soup kitchens — up as much as 25 percent since the crisis began in earnest in 2010, according to nonprofit groups and city officials — speak to the effects of the economic medicine being imposed on Greece and other troubled economies in Europe. In a country where homelessness was largely limited for generations by a culture of close family ties, officials say the roughly 1,000 beds available in Athens shelters are now fully occupied, with weeks-long waiting lists for newcomers.
Most of them are economic refugees like Leon Hannen, 64, a fluent English speaker and a maker of sacred icons for the Greek Orthodox faithful. When Greece’s economy went from bad to worse in 2011, squeezing wallets, religious shops rapidly stopped purchasing his wares. He said he went from a monthly income of roughly $2,600 as recently as 2009 to about $260 a month by last summer.
“Before I knew it, rent was six months overdue and I was asked to leave,” he said. “I had nowhere to go. I slept under the stars, on park benches, at first. I chose the ones by street lamps to be careful. Frankly, I feel as if I’ve had an easy life up until now. But none of us do anymore.”
The current cuts, critics say, are exacerbating a growing social crisis here, particularly in public health. A rising tide of unemployed Greeks have lost their private health-care coverage, leaving them turning to public hospitals left dangerously understaffed by hiring freezes. Suppliers are cutting off shipments of syringes, catheters, gauze and other medical materials because of the government cash crunch.
http://www2.isda.org/regions/europe/
What is the process for determining a Credit Event?
All firms entering into CDS transactions using the standard ISDA documentation (described above) have agreed to be bound by the decisions reached through the process for determining a Credit Event set out in the CDS Definitions. This process is fair, transparent and well tested, and was developed working closely with global regulators. Credit Events are determined by one of five regional ISDA Credit Derivatives Determinations Committees (DCs). An event with respect to Greece would be dealt with by the EMEA DC. The composition of the DCs is explained below.
The process begins when a market participant puts a question to the DC for the relevant region. Any market participant (who need not be an ISDA member) with one or more CDS transactions can raise a question. A question is raised by submitting it, along with publicly-available information evidencing the event, using an online form on the ISDA website.
After a question is submitted, it must be accepted by one of the members of the appropriate DC. This step is included in order to filter out frivolous questions. Once a question is accepted, the DC will meet within a defined timeframe to consider it. The DC will weigh the publicly-available evidence and vote on whether a Credit Event has occurred within the terms of the CDS Definitions. It should be noted that the DC simply applies the Definitions to the public facts; it is not empowered to decide whether, as a matter of policy, a Credit Event should or should not occur in particular circumstances.
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