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Is The Market Losing Faith In AAPL's Leadership (Again)?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It happened in September 2011, again in April 2012, and now its starting again. Despite the launch tomorrow of Apple's iPhone 5 (rumored to include the happy-ending-hand-extension), AAPL has notably underperformed in the last few days. Whether this is to do with the 20%-plus weighting in the NASDAQ-100 or whether, as we show below, the market's wise-men see AAPL's P/E ratio approaching that of the exuberant market and capping their attention, we do not know. What we do know is that each time, AAPL has notably underperformed the broad market for the next month (whether an up-market or down-market).

each time AAPL's P/E approaches the S&P 500's P/E, it seems to cap AAPL's hope-multiple...

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:24 | 2782557 Mysteerious Roo...
Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:30 | 2782579 Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

WTF is a happy-ending-hand-extension?

The hand equivalent of a fleshlight?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:57 | 2782629 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

This can't be.

It won't continue.

 

AAPL will continue to soar higher, forever and ever, defying Newton.

After all, its iPhone franchise alone is worth more than the entire market cap of Microsoft, so it obviously has many multiples of forward P/E growth left.

 

Apple makes fine products and is a well run company (the only thing that's a real threat is Foxconn putting up a "Apple No Longer Made Here" sign- according to the AAPL perma4everbulls), but those who can't see obvious and irrational premiums when they appear deserve what they ultimately reap.

Now PCLN, CMG, CRM or LULU, on the other hand...

 

There's absolutely nothing irrational whatsoever about the current valuation of the Bernank'd (i.e. broken) markets, whether equities, bonds, or credit in general. Carry on.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:33 | 2782587 falak pema
falak pema's picture

you  guys should all go to Gitmo for badmouthing the successor to Exxon, GM and Microsoft in the US corpocracy meme.

Jeez, "My country rite or rong" means something! And long life to the US Silicon titted, oh pardon, valleyed, Entrepreneur! 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:46 | 2782658 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

S&P rebalancing as well could explain some of the lack of fanaticism

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:25 | 2782558 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's different this time.....

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:52 | 2782676 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

We're born into this world unique in every way, and then spend all our lives attempting to be just like everyone else.

Bullish for Apple.

<Disclosure: I own a crApple.........but iCanStopAtAnyTime......really.......honest.....>

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:29 | 2782812 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

AA meeting:

My name is Wakanda and I own a crApple product.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:37 | 2782846 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Apple Anonymous (AA)

Too funny

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 16:08 | 2782965 Thought criminal
Thought criminal's picture

Of course it is - the market will drop faster than a stone this time.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:27 | 2782569 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

According to everything I've read Aapl will sell gajillions of iDrones... 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 16:37 | 2783082 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the iClone, sorry iDrone, is the Android yes/no?

the dumped with no price tag desperate Google effort

 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:35 | 2782600 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Since traders know the behaviour of AAPL during product refreshes, they are fronntrunnung the usual -1-to-2% sell-off in AAPL during iPhone refreshes to increase liquidity for the quick sell-the-news-buy-the-dip chart tomorrow.    

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 16:35 | 2783064 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

-

 

"Michael, soon Apple will be bigger than U.S. Steel."

 

-- Loosely paraphrasing Hyman Roth's (a character literally representing Meyer Lansky) statement to Michael Corleone in The Godfather.

 

Sears Roebuck

Hewlett Packard

General Motors

Xerox

U.S. Steel

Kodak

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:37 | 2782607 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"There's no such thing as a triple top"..............said the Wall Street spider to the retail investor fly.

hold........Hold...........HOLD.............HOLD................

<Double double your double down bro. It's all good.>

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:45 | 2782644 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

"No muppet army has ever defeated Wall Street's heavy cavalry. You are outmatched !"

"Hold...hold...HOLD...!"

http://adventuresincapitalism.com/webservices/Braveheart%20Spears.jpg

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:07 | 2782711 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

to the rescue!  this bitch!  Lead the muppets Joan of App!!

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-should-fear-28-year-old-alexa...

 

since it is an iPhone app, I am guessing it defaults to a constant bid suggestion for AAPL?

 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:36 | 2782608 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I can't decide who are the bigger cultists- crAAPL product purchasers or Mormons

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:51 | 2782675 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

until now I actually thought most ZH posters were educated (with the exception of AAPL drones)

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:40 | 2782626 koaj
koaj's picture

im hoping the goophone wins its lawsuit against Apple...evil bastards

 

S3 > iAnything

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:42 | 2782638 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Apple is trying to sue Isaac Newton for stealing their idea for a logo.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:00 | 2782700 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Newtown should countersue, Apple has defied gravity for how long now?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:21 | 2782782 hannah
hannah's picture

f = g*(m1+m2)/r2

m1 = fool

m2 = fool's money

r = distance to apple store

 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:26 | 2782805 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Are a fool (m1) and his/her money (m2) measured in the same units?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:42 | 2782857 hannah
hannah's picture

yes...the mass of an ounce of gold...!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 17:03 | 2783161 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Therefor they are easily separated!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 17:22 | 2783220 hannah
hannah's picture

"A foole & his money,
be soone at debate:
which after with sorow,
repents him to late."

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:03 | 2782718 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

No No Temporalist, they are trying to sue the writers of the Old Testament.

Very biblical, AAPL is king in the Big Apple...

ori

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:01 | 2782707 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

With all the slave labor fiasco's at Foxconn, how appropos is it that this company would be the bright shining beacon of the USA? 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:09 | 2782739 css1971
css1971's picture

Up up and awaaaaaaayyyy!!

There's no reason in the world this chart can't continue to go vertical with an increasing gradient.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:13 | 2782757 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

yup - all the way to yellow..  the future is as bright as the sun!!!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:24 | 2782797 redd_green
redd_green's picture

AAPLs leadership died.  What are left are the cvronies.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:31 | 2782820 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Steve's last bit of Reality Distortion Field will be released tomorrow.  It's mostly downhill from here.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:38 | 2782848 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

nonsense AAPL is clearly undervalued, where is that orange jumpsuit avatar guy to explain to us dimwits again..."iamamanireallyam" or something like that

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:48 | 2782873 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

They're just rotating into safer tech stocks like AMZN with p/e's in the 300's.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 15:57 | 2782915 Haager
Haager's picture

AAPL - now, how many iPhone5 will be sold due to a new QE round? AAPL Should go through the roof, in absolute distortion of reality...

 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 16:08 | 2782970 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Last I checked, apples rot too once they're too mature.

iHad to say it.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 16:20 | 2783020 RobinHood73
RobinHood73's picture

COURTESY OF WIKIPEDIA

Bread and Circuses" (or bread and games) (from Latin: panem et circenses) is a metaphor for a superficial means of appeasement. In the case of politics, the phrase is used to describe the creation of public approval, not through exemplary or excellent public service or public policy, but through diversion, distraction, and/or the mere satisfaction of the immediate, shallow requirements of a populace.[1] as an offered "palliative.

Apple is the synthetic "palliative" offered by our glorious Federal Reserve and Banking system that makes everything ok. We are all going to be alright cause APPLE IPHONE 5 is gonna sell like over a billion MADE-IN-CHINA phones!!!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 16:47 | 2783115 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

yes of course, and Goofballs stuff is made in America of course

Oh no they're not, and it gets worse as Goofball even give away free Android to their Asian makers 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 16:44 | 2783107 chrispycrunch
chrispycrunch's picture

Apple's gonna call the next phone iPhone 4SII (inspired by Samsung)?.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 17:44 | 2783267 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

I refuse to buy more "stuff."

 

Plus, my 4 year old does not need her own iPad !  She can use one of the four iPads her 9 year old brother carried on his belt.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 17:54 | 2783302 juwes
juwes's picture

Crocs had a fad and went really high and crashed.

Netflix got popular, went high, and crashed.

So did Microsoft, CMGI, PCLN, AMZN, BBY, ERTS, MACR, YHOO, INTC, ORCL

Krispy Kreme dough fucking nuts went really high and crashed.

So did Starbucks.

Is there any question in anyone's mind what will happen to AAPL?  Aren't we all just waiting for the crash to verify gravity.... Again?

What the fuck are we doing?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:16 | 2783474 frenzic
frenzic's picture

I am going to say it's a little ploy to get that shareprice up faster and higher percentage wise during launch than otherwise would have been the case ceteris paribus. (It also takes a little edge off the downside risk if the launch is less well received than stellar). That way it seems "the market" really has faith in the new product by looking at the charts and all "analysts" are going to crow that so your average Joe will think that it's another hit and he HAS to be part of it. I am not putting any fiat on it though, the party can't last much longer. The vertical will hold until it doesn't. A new joo will rise. He is being groomed as we speak.

edit I fucked up that Latin phrase by not using the correct inflection. I suck. Also added by looking at the charts.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 23:32 | 2784144 chump666
chump666's picture

Great chart ZH, that and the Nasdaq and S&P look heavy as hell.

 

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