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Market Is More Fragile Now Than Pre-Lehman
The significant rise in global systemic risk that occurred in 2008 remained until mid 2010 when it began to subside a little as Jackson Hole and QE2 seemed to allay fears somewhat. However, in the last year or so, BofA's market fragility index has soared higher alarmingly signaling higher systemic risks than in the peak pre-Lehman era. This confirms the massively elevated signal for global systemic risk that credit markets are also sending.
Systemic Risk inferred from equity market variance decomposition...
and Global Systemic Risk from the credit market...
But it appears we have become Pavlovian in our learned response to any systemic risk as the chart below shows. The Fed has acted each time 5Y5Y forward inflation expectations drop below 2%. We were well on our way to this just a week or two ago (red arrow) only to have our own reflexive expectations of a Fed-Save drive inflation expectations back up (green arrow) and thus removing the possibility of QE in the short-term.
It would appear that while systemic risks are at peak levels, the Fed needs the 'public' to believe it is not always there to save the day in order that when it does save the day, its effect is more than transitory.
Finally, for those curious just how it is possible that even with trillions in implicit backstops the market is now less stable than with AIG, Lehman, Merrill and all the soon to be failed banks, the answer is simple: back then the market was in the hands of the, well, market. Now it is solely controlled by a few politicians and a even fewer academics. In other words, whatever can go wrong, will.
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But the TV told me this morning we are in a "recovery"?
They meant in a recovery room, with condition still critical.
The Fed has painted itself into a corner, and now it's almost out of options ... and the marginal return for the remaining options is becoming increasingly infinitesimal. It's been a fun ride, but the endgame is approaching.
Only question is, is the Fed going to print before or after the crash. I'm betting on after.
The only recovery I've seen in the last 4 years is after a night of heavy drinking.
Don't forget your towel.
Anyone wanna get high?
Everybody else is smoking so much hopium I'm already contact high.
There is no question. The Fed will print. The only question is when and how much during this round of easing.
"Dear God. Will someone stop me from writing bad checks?"
Both.
YES WE CAN!
Now this is leadership!
http://annoyanidiot.blogspot.com/
Win.
The.
Future.
forward >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
off the cliff
Yes budget cuts required CNBS and Sesame Street to merge and the overlap is still being worked out.
Steve Liesman to be replaced by Big Bird.
And BattyMomo by Snuffie.
I think they meant to say "But the TV told me this morning we are in a "re-cover-up"?
It may mean now is a good time for individual investors to get back into the market.
In other news:
Gen Mullen shortened his whirlwind European tour to meet with a rag tag gag bag of Mossad and Military floozies and usually suspected Tel Avivian Zogladytes and told them that there will be no more USS Liberty False Flags, or similar lethal ponzis, like the communications foot prints the chosen ones laid on Egypt and Syria pre-cursing the glorious 6 days kill fest of self defense pretense, or attacks on US assets made to look like Iran did it.
Thanks to WRH, 3 time jet plane crasher son of a defense industrialist and crooner of songs that got him an early out from the Hanoi Hilton and then married to second wife, who has no time for Liberty's whiners, and also beer heiress and rumored associated with the car bombing a reporter who know too much about an AZ beverage commission ruling regarding vendor contracts at a horse race venue and the pregnant jowls from slugging down a wad of Keation 5's boss hog, Charles Keaton, dragon lotion, not forgetting he was also sailing the Gulf of Tompkins the day that little false flag was let loose, was also single handedly responsible for the fire explosions and 168 deaths on the USS Forestalls.
Kept secret since April 20 2012 is the arsenic DOA-d coroner who did the forensics on the Jan 2012 death of another Palfresque kill of conservative activist Brieitbart who told a C{AC audience he had videos that would prove our pimp wanna prez was involved in a a murder (we all know the prez's mummy worked for tim geithener's daddy)
BTW, NASA has written a patent for cold fusion
Flame, Stuxnet were MSI software injections admittedly implemented by the US and her best friend in the Middle east (really, her only friend). The morning, Sen. Boxerfien, whose hubby's claim to fame is the sell of Israeli bonds to the Indiana State Public Service Employees retirement plan, when asked by a reporter, if she considered "Flame" and "Stuxnet" cyber attacks (or IMW: cyber murder death genocide kill-fare), told the reporter she wouldn't answer than question because she did like the way it was asked. Well now the military is worried, not only about the use of M$ back door keys to inject things like flame, but also rightly concerned that data extractors are being etched (not programmable chips, like PALs) into their chips. Lest we forget, M$ owns a 10% stake in the Bath Ship Yard and a couple of years back M$ techs pulled all the SUN CICS systems and replaced them with Intel based M$ OS systems and the navy brass blew there collective lids and had M$ pull their shit off. We all should be aware the MS core operating system and security kernels are manufactured in the lands where dominion heresy is the spiritual bling of choice, and, BTW, same goes for Intel stuff. half the firmware sales for MS Intel systems are manufactured in the honey pot lands inherited directly from g*d!
Speaking of Indiana, stories are ablaze with meter busting radiation readings and explosions and blackout zones and military units and military planes. it is prophetically apocalyptic to some. either flame bit its creators, or, and more likely, military drill prepping our NDDA empowered military brass and the GI's we buy for them on the fine art of mass civil attitude adjustment. when they tell ya not to worry, you should begin to worry. their primetime pleas to not worry seem more frequent and of increasingly fatter decibles. the house is on fire and we are told to stay indoor, hmmmmmm .... at least its warm? prepare thy selves. recommended downloads "when there is no doctor" "when there is no dentist". download - have `em printed and bound.
Gee - why ahould anybody be concerned about the divinely shielded from false anti-crimites accusations regarding the manufacturing going on in MilkAndHoneyVille. Forget checkpoint. Forget Flame, RootKit, Stuxnet, Zeroday Adobe Java Script. Forget `em all. Forget all those update patches that M$ releases after some uppity geeks pisses them off when M$'s admitted intentional exploits are exposed. Just cause of flame and all the other stuff, it was a fluke, they didn't change for the bus, the tire was flat, everybody hated them because they were better than everybody else.
(note 1: to wannabe hackers - if you want to be a computer criminal and have not yet endured the luxury of working Redmond's back rooms and need some really cool back door keys do this (ya need at least a DSL - run it direct from adapter to modem and the modem to the wall outlet - set the router aside. Format an XP Pro HD. Has to be at least one SP installed cause pre SP XP is too secure so make sure to have an SP1 or later pack installed. Leave IIS on the disk, but not set on cause if your lucky you'll be able to harvest some keys that will allw it to be turned on without permission. You can turn off, or not turn off, updates and error reporting and the remote assistant sh*t. It's password agnostic. Make sure your event log is started, Disable the on board MS firewall, Dial into your ISP and go watch TV or spoon the old lady. Sleep. If your really lucky your ISP will have turned off your account because your box is emailing a zillion hard on pill emails - and you'll see fake blue screens or obvious scam virus scanners on your screen. Before you dispose of the drive, print out the contents of your entire event log. - in the logs you'll see logins by User's with seemingly randomized 9 digit "keys" with a description of the processes the funky user started or ran or installed).
(note 2: to users - it's not enough to just turn off automatic updates, error reporting and remote assistance. you got to go into the group policy editor and "blank out" the remote assistant and access ports. Use a router. unless you need IIS for a project, remove it from the disk. the on board firewall is all you need. turn off adobe flash java script - or do as adobe advises on its web site - use a 3rd party "light" PDF reader. a good "hosts" file should have at least 1200 entries by now. why are a lot of big brick and mortars still using xp?)
Noticed the Media timings for the prez and the ben seem to correspond to the ftse close - about time they figured that out.
Somethin's gonna go "pop" really really soon.
Time to get together a secret meeting at Jeckyll island.
. . . and call in an airstrike.
Admirable, but too easy...
I'd vote for hemming it in as some kind of Papillion style prison camp... Make 'em eat centipedes for a couple of years... The only way out is a coconut shell raft in shark infested waters... Pretty much the same treatment that they're inflicting on the ROW at the moment...
Unfortunately you can walk off of Jekyll Island.
We can fix that.
Deleted
They will do QE3, Because it is an election year, and Israel is going to nail Iran. Notice how that story has not been talked about in the last couple of days. The lull before the storm...
My feeling is the whole drama with Iran was to give China access to cheap oil or else China was thinking about dumping USD denominated assets.
Actual war with Iran would be WW3, the whole region being already tense and volatile. It just wont be Iran.
I wouldn't agree on your Iran - China statement, but you're right about the magnitude of such a conflict.
The fuse that is the Middle East is lit, now it's only a matter of time:
(http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/6385
http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/6392)
edit: I didn't junk you...
Munich '72 ~ London '12 (don't think that somebody upstairs hasn't thought of it)...
Can Davos host next?
Timmy G's pushing Euro tarp.
LOL!!! They're stupid enough to do it!!
I hate always feelig like we are on the edge....then poof..nothing happens. Get it over with already.
I see you quiver with antici............................................................pation.
But maybe the rain isn't really to blame,
So I'll remove the cause - Heh... Heh... Heh...
But not the SYMPTOM!
Same here. I wish this bloated zombie of a global system would finally fall apart, so we would know where we stand and we can start anew. Also, there are some open accounts with various bankers and politicians that urgently need settling.
Great...this time we're trying the balancing at 16 trillion since the fail at 12 trillion only managed to break some bones. Now, let's try this ALL IN.
Markets fine, jsut have the PPT push up the market on low volume days and well be to Dow 20000 in no time.
Just a check: How much is the DOW up this year?
Answer: between 2% and 3%
No, Joe said it is "The Summer of Recovery"... oh wait, that was last year... never mind...
and before that Joe said Corzine is the economic go-to-guy for Team Obama...WINNING !
http://www.therightscoop.com/flashback-2009-biden-touts-jon-corzine-as-economic-go-to-guy-for-team-obama/
CTRL-P is the only solution...mark my words...gold and silver up fivefold is preferable to civil/social disobedience and bloodshed...
History is not on your side.
History is written by the victors.
Precisely, and it always involves social unrest and bloodshed.
So, ipso facto, history is always written by those willing to engage in bloodshed who happen to be doomed to repeat what they've not understood.
I'm inclined to agree but don't forget those 450 million rounds of hollow point 40 cal recently ordered by DHS: http://www.theblaze.com/stories/why-is-homeland-security-buying-450-mill...
Wasn't that for "target practice"?
If BofA says it, it must be true.
Markets are fine. There's only one direction that they can go and that's up...
Drop by Drop
Drip by Drip...
-'They' carry out their illuminati agenda...we are being held captive by the old and now the new scientific-technological elite.
It gets worse every single day.
Today was worse then yesterday...but tomorrow will be worse than today.
It really is very sad that our society has been totally hijacked...and worse, the masses are in denial and dont care...
They will when they wake up. Blue pills have a long lasting effect!
Which ones - xanax or viagra? /s
They will first wake up after TSHTF, when the medicines supply is cut and there's no more fluoride in the tap water.
Or...you're a nutter who would rather whine than disintermediate.
If you can't spot the sucker after sitting down during the first hour at the table.....
............then you probably work at the Federal Reserve.
where is this "market" they speak of. Title should read "Market is more fake than pre-Lehman."
But ObaMao said its all good, we just need to 'pass moar ideas' and stop spending so much while handing out the free moneez.
Thingamajigs! Job creation!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qjl54v1irbs
Expect it when you least expect it. Or don't expect it when you expect it. Or something like that.
"Expect it when you least expect it. Or don't expect it when you expect it. Or something like that."
You just described my sex life...
You too? Kids are the ultimate cockblock...
Pedobear...
Lol!
Edit: "Having kids is the ultimate cockblock..."
Better?
I am going to junk all your comments from now on.
Co-dependent enabler!
It's funny to watch Cramer each morning try to spin EVERYTHING positive. The desperation is sad yet oddly entertaining.
I know he is like watching the Monkey with the cymbals, and it is a good laugh. Keep in mind every time you watch CNBC you help their RATINGS. So, turn them off... I quit watching that dog and pony show well over a year ago "and I quit receiving their email crap too". Until these Networks start telling the truth, don't give them the time of day.
Better their Ratings the more they make on Ad's.... Crush them, send them a message to stop the LIE's
Market will have to wait till Monday to fall apart, it's a summer Friday and the banksters are already in the Hampton's laughing it up while the rest of America wonders if they will still have a job on Monday.
Actually, during SALT, a French investor said he thought risk would be off and that markets would be essentially "standing pat" b/c of the EURO 2012. That's why European leaders aren't doing anything; they are too busy getting drunk in Poland and Ukraine watching soccer.
August is the month to watch. Not only is it an historically down month, so much shit comes to head: QE3, EURO 2012 ending, Italy/Spain issues, Congress and the fiscal cliff, and of course, the decline of the US consumer.
Really? But I just got back from Price Chopper yesterday and the Market seemed the same as every other time I shopped there...
Cramer said this morning that "Ms. Merkel has to com to her senses". That is right, continue to bail out failed countries, put your people in more debt, and when it all blows up it takes Germany with it. Yup, she needs to come to her senses all right.
Why is Cramer not in the room next to Madoff?
Wait until the narrative turns to:
The GERMANS have to make up their mind..
Don't mess with Germans that are feeling they're backed into a corner. They tend to overreact. You don't want Barbarians to come to Rome.
Supercalifragilisticexpialidotious ! "The Nobel Peace Prize ain't what it used to be...before they invented TNT !"....Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Kofi And Hillary Are Planning Post Arab Spring Middle Yeast Infection
I wish ZH had the abillity to make user generated polls.
Id love to get the SANE users oppinion on how many +/- 3%/5% moves we will get this month. Im guessing 4-5/1-2.
QE3 is going to be like feeding a slot machine - fun is measured in minutes and seconds.
Lets at least have some fun before the entire shithouse goes up in flames!
Have I got this right? The market has started up this morning because Spain is gonna ask for a bailout?
This is so far beyond WTF as to boggle the mind, and my so-called mind is getting harder to boggle all the time as this slo-mo Euro train wreck continues.
I suspect it is gonna be a long summer, trading wise...
Fragile is right - how do you spell (S)PAIN - and right now the bernanke seems more intent to slide the blame off his teflon shoulders, renegotiate the terms of his hire to exclude any promises of efficacy for the helicoptering, plus push the buck back to congress for not having done some magic to extract big taxation from all the other (mainstreet) Americans when they eventually get jobs. After yesterdays seeded question time comparison of the US and Greece, I doubt bernanke will be going anywhere near Europe for som decades, lest he find himself on the menu. One sure thing - he definitely said he has no more ideas - fresh out - I heard him
There will likely be a 1987 type crash later this year. Market curbs will go into effect. Even worse then pre 9/11 collapse. This is still months away.
Can't everyone unload their risk by selling CDS to everyone else? Does anyone remember when sub-prime credit was called high risk credit?
Look at M2 Money velocity chart. $HIT!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/geithner-pleads-with-europe-to-pass-eurotarp-obama-wants-harp-2-0-passed/
Bear is fine
But my "guy" at Investors Group told me "opportunity abounds" and he smiled while saying so - asshole.
Well, I for one will be pretty surprised if having politicians and bankers make stern pronouncements as to how serious they are about fixing this problem, coupled with doctored and misreported statistics, along with some outright lies, and blatant manipulation of the precious metals and bond markets, doesn't EVENTUALLY fix all these problems.
Actually, I'm trying the same strategy with my roof (which has been leaking since 2008, due to the fact that I blew the money that had been set aside for maintenance on hookers and booze). Every time it rains and water leaks into the living room, I make some stern pronouncements about the actions that are being taken to fix the roof, and tell the family that it has in fact improved notably since the original crisis of 2008, and is expected to be fully restored within the foreseeable future. The great thing about this is that I never have to actually get up on the roof and do any work, or pay anybody else to do it either. Just waiting now for the magic to happen...
Can someone provide a good explanaition of 5y5y.
I understand a 5y spot forward rate but am a little thrown off by 5y5y.
5Y5Y means it is the markets expectations of what 5Y inflation expectations will be in 5Y from now.
While I'm aware that this is primarily a secular site, as a Bible-believing Christian (a minority among Christians these days), I'm inclined to believe the following:
For the mystery of iniquity doth already work: only he who now letteth will let, until he be taken out of the way. And then shall that Wicked be revealed, whom the Lord shall consume with the spirit of his mouth, and shall destroy with the brightness of his coming.
We've all been talking about the "collapse" for years now, and yet it hasn't come to pass. Why not?
It won't be until the rapture of the church--him that letteth-- that the Earth will witness the true collapse of society as we know it. The Luciferian PTB will finally be fully able to exercise their evil upon the world. This will, of course, allow for the appearance of that "Wicked" (the antichrist), a global currency system, and, naturally, the final global government. And friends, trust me when I tell you that no amount of gold, silver or ammunition will spare you from the wrath of the Lord in those days.
I don't believe that the Luciferian PTB have any unholy otherworldly power, I think the have power in this world and they believe certain things (things should happen on certain meaningful dates etc) and they make it happen on those dates. Where is that fellow poster NewWorldOrder or something, he's good.
But maybe that's just because what you're saying is just way too scary :O
Bullshit. There is a simple answer, all economies are local, period. Always have been, always will be. FYI- let me know when all the "good christians" start treating others the way they want to be treated. I like you Christ, your christians, not so much.
So the market is collapsing up and gold is protecting you not. We'll see how long that can last.
Still don't know the difference between paper and physical, some have to learn the hard way I guess.
I had some spare time last night so I decided to have a little fun. I grabbed the entire list of your posts from 9/8/11 through yesterday about 7pm eastern. Then I charted your post history against gold.
Here is the chart. London PM Fix price on left axis, posts per day on the right axis.
http://i48.tinypic.com/33atqxg.jpg
How was that January holiday?
What you did is pretty awesome. Thanks. I love it. I feel special. Thanks a lot.
No problem, you're welcome.
You're more special than you'll ever know. You make all the other kids on the short bus soooo jealous.
I'll take "Things denominated in a dying currency" for $500, Chuck!
"back then the market was in the hands of the, well, market." It was? Really? Ok, maybe a market of crooks and imbeciles presided over by inept regulators.