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Is Today's Market Pricing A Forthcoming Reactionary-QE By The Fed?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Our earlier discussion of the relationship between ECB and Fed balance sheets as the driver of risk correlations this year seems particularly timely as we are seeing quite notable divergences among US asset classes and FX flows today. EUR is now up relative to the USD on the day (DXY is down and tracking stocks higher), Treasury yields are falling fast and the curve flattening (2s10s30s dropping rapidly) and Silver is rallying hard off its lows (Gold perhaps being held back for now by collateral/cash/redemption calls for now). Oil is back green for the week also. Is the market starting to comprehend that the non-QE of the ECB's LTRO and SMP is in fact QE and implies the currency wars just went to 11 - forcing the Fed's hand?

Dollar (inverted) vs S&P 500 vs 10Y Yields.

Commodities are starting to surge again. Even Gold is now on the move too.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:46 | 2019855 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Komprehenshun, bitchez!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:51 | 2020103 Popo
Popo's picture

b.b..but I thought there wasn't going to be any more QE.   Poor Mr. Denninger's head is going to explode.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:07 | 2020156 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Who? The same Mr. Denninger who bleated incessantly that Chairman Ben wouldn't take interest rates on a Japanese-style ZIRP ride back in 2007-2008? I challenged him on each and every cut, saying Ben would, while Mr. Denninger said he would not.

The same Mr. Denninger who posts more tickers on his forum per day than other people post replies or threads to his forum?

The same Mr. Denninger who bans anybody who disagrees with him?

Yeah, that's the one. I know it.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:21 | 2020196 optimator
optimator's picture

The same.  The guy that said gold wasn't going anywhere.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:45 | 2020278 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

I don't know if the market is frontrunning a QE announcement, but I do know that QE is going on under the cover of darkness.  Two or more European banks were fueled up in the last 60 days, as ZH reported.  Benocide can't announce it though, because doing so would show the USD what it really is - a POS.

I continue to buy PM's, not so much based on a potential QE announcement, but because the global bankers are FORCED to print, are printing, and will print, but are not formerly announcing it, at the same time holding PM's down.  I also believe the Crimex is coming to a head with its crooked and fraudulent schemes, so PM's are my choice right now.

And I don't need to do anything, just sit back and watch.  The banksters need to be active everyday, sweating, hoping, manipulating.  Not PM holders... we have the real deal.

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:45 | 2020285 eureka
eureka's picture

Soros sees gold prices on verge of bear market (bloomberg, today) - Russel: under $1500 gold tanks.

Point: if US survives - and EU and China tanks - it will not be due to the inherent moral, philosophical and productive capacity of the US citizenry, but to its absolute submissiveness to its elite - and to its henchmen, the ruthless and purely self-absorbed bankster and security scum, who run the US - the world's second largest economy - after EU.

Gold is tanking, Bitchez - and who do you thank for that?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 17:18 | 2020380 economics1996
economics1996's picture

There is already more dope in the pipeline.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:07 | 2020159 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Yet another day I feel like spontaneously combusting right the fuck off the planet!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:58 | 2020328 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

Don't combust, rest your head on Bernanke lap.

On other topic, Ron Paul needs to stop responding to newsletter question. When asked about newsletter, instead he should talk of what he's done for civil rights, talk of MLK vote, ignore assholes who try to put him on defensive.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 18:26 | 2020516 Tanz der Lemminge
Tanz der Lemminge's picture

Don't poke fun at the Karl or he might ban ZH posts from his forum.

.

.

.

Oh - wait -- half the posts on his forum are re-posts of original ZH stuff

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:47 | 2019863 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Market is pricing in decoupling.

In other delusions Santorum will become POTUS, and i will become Mrs. George Clooney.

Happy New Year indeed.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:49 | 2019870 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Can I be the new Peter North?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:53 | 2019889 ACP
ACP's picture

Only if you use QE to SPOO.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:57 | 2019908 pauhana
pauhana's picture

Apparently, stranger things have happened!

"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_8TGTKdrlY"

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:19 | 2019983 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Oh, can I be Peter Faulk?

"Ah, I'm really sorry to be such a bother to you Mr Romney but please...one more question.  Why are you such a duesch Bag?"

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:20 | 2019989 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Whadyaa mean "phucktards" isn't a word?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:51 | 2020104 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

In 24 hours, Gold will have outperformed the S&P by at least 5% on the year, even after the coordinated bashings.

 

Print away Ben, I triple dog dare 'ya..

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:19 | 2020603 strannick
strannick's picture

And I triple time beg you

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:48 | 2019865 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

QE right now is just plain suicidal.  Hard to justify a QE, even a stealth one with prices where they are.  I would say the market has become too stupid for itself.  Front running a QE in advance like this does nothing but delay QE.  Also, the markets are up just becuase they do not want to end the year down. 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:51 | 2019884 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Agreed.  Bernanke launching QE3 with equities where they are makes him look like a villain that only cares about the wealthy financial oligarchs (which he is).  Bernanke would much rather appear to be a savior (Can he be Time's Man of the Year again?) by launching QE3 with markets plunging.

My guess is that S&P gives us a nice New Years present sometime in January and downgrades all of Europe.  Equities plunge, dollar strengthens, and Bernanke with his new dove majority can launch QE3.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:06 | 2019938 john39
john39's picture

the choice is not bernanke's.   he is front man for a very large cabal.  he, like obama and the european leaders, will do what they are told, and when they are told...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:25 | 2020016 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I totally understand and agree.  I just say "Bernanke" because it's shorter than "the illuminati lucifarian financial oligarchy."  Bernanke's just a front man like you said.  I'm sure they have some dirt on him just like everyone else in power which is how they control them.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:28 | 2020026 john39
john39's picture

good point.  need some good shorthand for these clowns that doesn't inflate their importance...   i suspect that the bernanke puppet is an actual member of that cult...  the politicians, not so much...  just dumb and corrupted.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:47 | 2020086 ekm
ekm's picture

I see S&P at 900 before WSJ and Bloomberg beg him to do QE3? What do you guys think? 950? 1000?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:20 | 2020134 FinHits
FinHits's picture

Share prices and paper wealth values going down is not the end of the world.

I find absurd the current wide-spread obsession on somebody having to do a QE somewhere. A couple of years ago nobody even knew what a QE is. We should all just move along and find a new event fetish somewhere else.

 

Possibly one angle that ZeroHedge has not studied much yet is the "global economic war" impact of QEs.

On the one hand QEs debase the currency, leading to potentially a weaker fx-rate which is good from the "currency war" point of view to the country doing the QE. On the other hand, we have different fingers... just joking... the QE is a "global freebie" for the other countries, who get part of the improved purchasing power of the free helicopter money as demand boost for their products and financial instruments.

Methinks he who QEs last or not at all, wins this global game.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:29 | 2020223 ekm
ekm's picture

Oh I agree with the conclusion. But it doesn't help with 6 month horizon investing. As to QE, central banking is based on continuous QE as a functioning mechanism. The reason it's called QE now is just camouflage as if it is something that never happened before. If not continuous QE, no need for a central bank. The question is how much of QE at any given time.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 22:50 | 2020864 DosZap
DosZap's picture

ekm

Bout time some folks woke up around here.

QE has NEVER stopped,it's going full bore, by another name, or no name at all.

QE pissed of the  working class,so they now just do what they want, since we are no longer a Republic, and no longer are citizens with any rights,Why should they give a flying fook what WE think?

Answer: They don't, and their doing anything and everything they damn well please.

They learned  Partial honesty was not the best policy, so they back tracked to the old ways.

It's far easier to get forgiveness than permission.

But since we have gone FULL FASCISM, it just doesn't matter.

They need neither.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:35 | 2020048 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Really John, well what if theyre told 'WW3 starts tomorrow'? Do people really think 'the plan' now is just to keep printing and floating around these stupid markets FOREVER? Hardly.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:38 | 2020063 john39
john39's picture

see my comment just a few inches down the screen.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:37 | 2020060 ShoeShineBoy
ShoeShineBoy's picture

well, maybe it has already been in the prices? 

how about US pensioners realizing that on the back of 2.8% 30 yr US Treasuries, their pensions are massively UNDERFUNDED not only because of their underperforming plan-assets but also because of that delusional strong USD and all time low 30 yrs.. I guess sometime they use 10 yr IG corps but even they are in a bubble territory, if not inside of that..

 

so, to your point, uncle Ben better start being a savior for those said US pensioners

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:45 | 2020079 ekm
ekm's picture

SeverinSlade, I see S&P at 900 before WSJ and Bloomberg beg him to do QE3? What do you think?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:51 | 2020099 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

It may get that low.  They really defended the 1080 mark last time.  Anything below that is going to sound the alarms.  Whatever happens though it's going to happen fast.  We're not going to have a controlled fall down.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:57 | 2020123 ekm
ekm's picture

Thx a lot for the answer. Could you elaborate on "THEY". Plunge Protection Team? If yes, what do you think is their capital? It's always finite capital and they can't defend 1080 for a long time if no suckers get on board to comply? I'm eager to know your feedback. Thx.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:58 | 2019911 zonkie
zonkie's picture

Guys,  Tyler is talking about ECB LTRO not actual QE3 here. QE3 is happening in disguise which the markets are now waking up to. 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:04 | 2019930 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

And is the Fed going to rescue China when its economy collapse from the property bubble?

 

The Fed can't rescue the world from the end of the debt super bubble.    The Fed is replacing exogenesis risk with endogenious risk (more money printing via swap lines) . Risk isn't removed. It's reshuffled.  But someone is going to have to pay very soon (2012--trillions in  debt rollovers).

 

Whether it's the pleb (general pop) via hyperinflation, or the elites from a massive asset deflation.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:30 | 2020033 john39
john39's picture

they need to keep it going just long enough to unleash the wars and the crackdowns...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:38 | 2020061 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The way I look at it, they just need SOPA passed, theyve got NDAA Indefinite Detention bill passed already, and then its takedown time. People who are now conditioned to believe we just keep printing to support fake bankrupt markets with 0% interest funny money to 'keep things looking stable forever' will get the rudest awakening in human history real soon.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:40 | 2020068 john39
john39's picture

yeah, i totall agree... wealth was never the end game....  just a means to the end (total control by a small class.  this story is as old as time, but most are dead asleep.  eyes wide shut?  kubrick was trying to tell us something but most still are not listening.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:50 | 2020098 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, those 'elites' dont care about MONEY or STOCKS...theyre grabbing up every resource in the world. When you own all the oil, and food production, and the dirt itself, money means nothing at all, you own everything. Money is for peasants.

The owner of the resort doesnt need to worry about paying his bar tab, he owns the whole damn place.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:59 | 2020132 john39
john39's picture

yup, like a giant game of musical chairs.... when the music stops, the cabal has all the chairs while the peasants hold a pile of worthless paper.  anything they didn't get when before the music stop, they use control to just take away...  off to the fema camp if you complain.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:53 | 2020111 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Did Obama sign NDAA?

If he did that one skipped past me. I'll down vote myself.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:08 | 2020158 JimmyTheHand
JimmyTheHand's picture

Oops, that's from last year... sorry.  Not sure if he signed it yet or not.

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:09 | 2020167 JohnG
JohnG's picture

It is listed as "pending" on whitehouse website.

Since I forced myself to look, I'm going to go puke now.....

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:04 | 2020150 valley chick
valley chick's picture

ding...ding...ding!  We got a winner!!!  :-)   About control of the people.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:51 | 2020101 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

And is the Fed going to rescue China when its economy collapse from the property bubble?

 

http://www.thedailybell.com/3355/VIDEO-Evelyn-De-Rothschild-on-Chinas-Gr...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:19 | 2020190 john39
john39's picture

hard to understand why those crazy tin foil hat types think that the rothschilds are evil...  /sarc:

http://fellowshipofminds.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/baroness-philippine-mathilde-camille-de-rothschild-3.jpg

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 17:12 | 2020368 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

thankyou for the link :-))

to begin with, evelyn is a very complex person,... but, with a great many fine qualities that some agree to, and others disagree with - besides the point - that being apart of the rothschild family, he is very much different philosophically, and fantastically pragmatic with a heartfelt humanitarian side for the little guy ---  fact is, i find this rothschild to be quite upstanding regarding his sensitivity to the world's betterment, and for all mankind in general.

ps. when i hear all the negative things said about evelyn,... i wonder aloud just how could this be --- just my gut feeling i suppose, but, i've always been a contrarian to heresy and the horrible psychological damage it fosters/creates with lasting/ unwarranted stigmatization.

jmo 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:34 | 2019937 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

~$100 oil and Bernank starting QE-3 ($150 oil, $5 gas, and 9% unemployment to help re-elect da ganstar)?!?
Nah, ain't gonna happen.

They (NY Fed, JPM [aka Fed's proxy], and Goldman [aka Bernank's master]) would have to bear raid oil before Bernank can resume any money printing.

What you see today is PMs flagrantly marking up equities on record low volume fumes.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:48 | 2020090 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Just do QE3 and attack Iran and blame the rise of oil on Iran. The sheeple will believe it.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:58 | 2020128 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

You are correct -- da gansta attacking Iran kills two birds with one stone (attract Jewish voters and having a convenient scapegoat to blame for high oil prices).

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:21 | 2019993 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I dont understand why we are talking about QE.  The markets are great.  Stocks are up.  Bond yeilds are down. 3 Stooges releases in April and Jim Carrey has a new girlfriend...

He could have al least called me to tell me we were done.

Bastard.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:24 | 2020006 SGS
SGS's picture

Stocks are up??  Huh?  From when?  Feb 2009?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:32 | 2020040 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Stock indexes about 1999 levels. The avg american in a new Forever Lazy is not very hard to fool at all.

FOREVER LAZY COMMERCIAL - YouTube

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 22:14 | 2020140 Manthong
Manthong's picture

I noticed something.

http://i44.tinypic.com/1580etv.jpg

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:52 | 2020106 Thomas.2012
Thomas.2012's picture

Why complain ?

Since 1995

Nasdaq 100 up 400%

Dow C up 200%

:-) Dont worry - just kidding ....

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 17:25 | 2020394 Rynak
Rynak's picture

I wonder how those stats would look like, if one anchors them to the fed's balance sheet.

The only thing that is going up, is numbers.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:26 | 2020217 optimator
optimator's picture

And since when did the man behind the curtain, the Big Boss, have to justify anything.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:48 | 2019867 maxw3st
maxw3st's picture

Amazing it's taken this long to sink in.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:48 | 2019868 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Looks like negative divergence to me...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:49 | 2019869 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Manipulate a yearend rally in "risk on assets"  the fed would never do that.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:49 | 2019873 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Yup, Bernanke is definitely going to embark on QE3 with the DOW at 13,000 and S&P at 1350.

Better start accumulating your shorts.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:22 | 2020001 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Vix is at 22.  That signals a nice quiet entry point.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:49 | 2019874 ACP
ACP's picture

QE bitchez!

Gold bitchez!

Silver bitchez!

Hell...

Apocalypse bitchez!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:49 | 2019875 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Gold says, My head hurts

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:50 | 2019877 knight99
knight99's picture

oil over 75-80 you will NOT see QE no matter what happens.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:28 | 2020029 ekm
ekm's picture

Absolutely correct.

Chief of Fed Rev is a political position. Fed is not independent  at all. Kudos to knight99. Any money printed will go straight to oil. Look at it now, That little QE that is always going on, is focusing on crude oil.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:51 | 2019881 DMA
DMA's picture

I was trading today pretty active. 

The dollar went down just before news about jobs was realesed. 10 minutes before just came back from the lows 

After than Gold begin to stabilise and Silver to rally. 

So I had the same feeling about QE. Maybe not yet in the cards but the FED or the media pundits can talk down the dollar for now. 

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:53 | 2019887 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"as we are seeing quite notable divergences among US asset classes and FX flows today."

Now THAT's a Cognitive Dissonance if ever I saw one. :)

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:55 | 2019888 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture
  1. Whos right? Bond markets?, Equities?....

TLT still up

TNX at 1.88/1.89...

well, up 2 u...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:54 | 2019893 DMA
DMA's picture

I just bought my first Silver bar this week. 

Last week I bought my first gold bar.  near 1700 :( 

:)

physical :)

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:25 | 2020008 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Congrats.

Now to counter your depression take a $1 bill and tear it into shreds.  Then ask yourself.  What is that piece of ripped paper worth?  Nothing really.

Now take your gold and rip it to...oh thats right.  You cant destroy real money.

Ignore the Fiat price and BTFD.  If it was good at 1700 its a deal at 1600.  Im hoping for 1400.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:53 | 2020108 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

It's much more satisfying to use it as toilet paper after you have a bout of explosive diahrrea. 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:24 | 2020211 jomama
jomama's picture

you can stop eating the thanksgiving leftovers already.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:35 | 2020241 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Before you use it to wipe you might want to flash a black light over it.  About as sanitary as my keyboard.  I wouldnt recommend you use a black light on the keyboard when I'm around though...too embarassing.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:57 | 2020654 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

I locked in 6 monster box Silver Eagles @ under $15,000 yesterday.

These prices are a gift. I used my credit line. When prices go back up 

early next year, and they will, I will sell my paper silver (slv) and pay off

my credit line. The time has come to turn paper into physical before the

paper turns to dust. If it goes down more tomorrow, I will double down.

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:42 | 2020072 ekm
ekm's picture

Ok but DO NOT buy more. It's going lower. Wait for later to buy it cheaper.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:56 | 2020118 valley chick
valley chick's picture

huh? wait till LATER?  good luck with that one...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 18:13 | 2020493 toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

Never wait. Always add. Ignore paper price.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:01 | 2020139 deKevelioc
deKevelioc's picture

That's a nice habit you're forming.  Congratulations.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:56 | 2019894 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Nothing they have done has kept the euro up. Bottom line. They have thrown about everything they can throw at it and they will throw more QE at it. Does not matter. Nothing will stop this train wreck. Add it all up and the S&P has done notta YTD and the Euro has dipped below year lows. Pathetic. Nothing is going to stop the bleeding.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:55 | 2019898 hnaparst
hnaparst's picture

I think you are reading too much into it.

The dollar is down because it is a safe asset.  The news in the US is viewed as "no recession", so risk-on.

Gold has fallen recently as a natural reaction to deflation fears.  Again, with the positive US news, this is not an issue, so metals trade up.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:17 | 2019976 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'No recession'...oh sure as long as the far larger 800 lb gorilla depression in the room can continue to be ignored, and the firehose of free 0% money to the banks keeps flowing.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:32 | 2020041 hnaparst
hnaparst's picture

I am just trying to interpret what Mr. Market was saying today.  I'm not saying that there won't be a recession in the U.S.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:42 | 2020071 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well we're already at depression for 2 years at least, just papered over with $30 trillion or so fake money... this depression when it crashes in wont be an 'old timey' depression like before, with a pencil cup and 'brother, can you spare a few million bucks for a bowl of soup' kind of depression at all.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:55 | 2019899 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Fellas, fellas, fellas, no no no! It's the "data" stupid!

From BBG-propaganda station:

Stocks Rally on Economic Data

U.S. stocks rose, restoring the yearly gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as data signaled the U.S. economy is weathering Europe’s debt crisis. The euro erased an earlier loss and European shares advanced.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.7 percent to 1,258.76 at 1:21 p.m. in New York, leaving it up 0.1 percent for the year. The euro was little changed at $1.2940, after losing as much as 0.6 percent, and trimmed a 0.8 percent slide against the yen to 0.3 percent. Italy’s 10-year bond yield was up less than three basis points at 7.03 percent after climbing 13 basis points earlier. Ten-year U.S. Treasury rates lost two basis points to 1.90 percent.

U.S. equities extended gains (SPX) as an index of pending U.S. home sales rose more than economists forecast, while other reports showed stronger-than-projected growth in American business activity and a drop in jobless claims over the past month to a three-year low. European stocks fell earlier, while the euro touched a decade low against the yen and a 15-month low versus the dollar, after Italy raised less than its maximum target at a debt auction.

“There has been a much better tone in the U.S.,” Richard Sichel, who oversees $1.6 billion as chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., said in a telephone interview. “We’re optimistic that corporate earnings can continue to be strong and that will be a driver of the market.

 

Oh man they're trying hard to spin it. Kitchen sink ain't got nuthin' on what BBG is throwing out...

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-29/asia-stocks-fall-for-third-day-...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:13 | 2019961 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

And yet there's that pesky red blinking light on the dashboard called a sub 2% US10Y. 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:27 | 2019990 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'US economy weathering Europe debt crisis'...well sure, as long as US own far larger debt crisis can continue to be ignored as the foaming at the mouth 800 lb gorilla in the corner.

Obama demanding tomorrow another $1.2 trillion debt...not even in the news...the news is GOOD! Now get back on those oars and ROW harder! Fuking peasants!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:57 | 2020121 valley chick
valley chick's picture

time to cue the rating agencies.....

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:28 | 2020220 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

"Strong corporate earnings"...LOL!  Let's ask Sears, Oracle, RIMM, and TI about those earnings.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:30 | 2020227 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

Bloomberg talks gold: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-29/gold-bubble-seen-by-soros-ends-...

This is becoming hilarious! They are trying to bring gold down on year end to be in line with gains by the S&P and the DOW! You can`t let gold be a better investment. Anyways this is irrelevant, pr the 100 to 1 they are trading in the papper markets.

Per Harvey Organ: "Thus the total number of gold ounces standing in this delivery month is as follows:

2,206,800 oz (served) + 6,000 (oz to be served upon) = 2,212,800 oz or 68.82 tonnes of gold.
If we add the "non delivery" month of Nov gold at 1.77 tonnes from options exercised we have a total of 70.59 tonnes of gold. Thus the percentage standing is 70.59/78.59 or 89.62% and yet no physical gold enters."

So the COMEX is in defacto default on physical! Also, Harvey pointed out that HSBC and JPM have huge short positions in the metals markets which they need to mark on year end. So bear raid after bear raid on thin volume. BTFD, you won`t be sorry. Gold is MONEY, was money, and it will be money, because it`s installed hardware, it`s in our DNA. We see gold as a store of value, and have so for thousands of years. That will not change. There have been 4000 FIAT REGIMES in the last 4000 years! None survive to this day! What makes you think this time is different? Ask yourself why do central banks hold huge amounts of gold if it`s a barbarous relic? Why do all the rich people own this stuff? generation after generation. Or, as another puts it, it is easy to walk in the footsteps of giants. Buy gold and forget about it! Visit your physical in 5 years.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:59 | 2019913 westerman
westerman's picture

This is very bullish for paper, ink and wheelbarrows.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:59 | 2019914 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Wouldn't explain the ass kicking on gold.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:29 | 2020030 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Conventional wisdom is that the strong dollar is bringing down gold coupled with a flight from the paper precious metals in the aftermath of MF Global.  It is bleeding down as the analysis of the actions are taking time to filter through the system.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 14:59 | 2019915 BORT
BORT's picture

Oil Product consumption down very hard.  Now 7.8% below last year at 4 week moving average.  The economy is actually crashing, despite what some people say

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:16 | 2019970 e-recep
e-recep's picture

Your Average Joe is collapsing, the filthy rich is getting richer.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 22:21 | 2020811 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

That's not entirely true.  I'm right at median (or was a couple of years ago, now I'm a bit above) and my household is gaining net worth every month.

I'm thinking it's fair to assume that median income = average Joe- but life is all about the choices you make, and we don't choose to buy snuggies from WalMart on credit.  Instead, my family stacks silver and food without margin, and it's working out just fine.  Not only that, but my behavior is in line with all the brass at my company, and they take some notice, so I am on my way up in the organization for building wealth in the crisis rather than just bitching about it.

Don't know about you, but I'd rather succeed than sit around bemoaning my fate.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:54 | 2020290 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

Welcome to peak oil! It`s down because there isn`t enough left, because EoREI is no longer off the charts (see dead Russians trying to drill for oil in arctic waters). This is will get worse every day, and will probably be widely admitted in 2-3 years. There is NOT ENOUGH OIL LEFT! We have BUILD A ENERGY INTENSIVE SOCIETY. We need more and more oil in order to run our cities, which were built thinking we live on a INFINITE planet! So, normally, consumption goes down because there is less energy surplus to be had. The -7.8% went to China, other emerging economies. Ask yourself what is the value of a barrel of oil to you, and what is the value to a chinese family taking it`s first car trip? Oil is much more valuable to emerging economies, they will pay as much as is needed. Also oil is a FINITE resources, so the exporting countries needs a store of value for sold oil. I have a vague feeling that the House of Saud is not filling Riyadh basements with dollars and euros. True, they buy a lot of weapons, but 20-30% always goes into gold, which, nowadays, probably gets delivered (see Venezuela).

It is no confusion that Britain sold all it`s gold during 1999. They had to put out the paper fire that "another" was talking about. The UK is home for all the TBTF banks. Luckily since the LBMA increased leveraged paper gold 100 to 1 vs. physical. As FOFOA puts it, big money is ALWAYS the first to panic! Big money owns the bus company folks, and the sheep are waiting in the station for the next bus! Big money KNOWS there will be no next bus. All your rehypotecated gold/silver belongs to us. For information on you claim call 0800XXXXXXXX, the trustee will answer you in 1000 days. Enjoy!

Paper currency has no REAL value, it obly has a perceived value, the one in your head and mine, it`s all fictional. People will believe fiction for awhile, a very long while in some cases. But fiction always collapses. The Berlin Wall fell in 1 night. When people stopped believing the fiction they were presented there was no more fear, the system shattered.

If I go to any bank branch, they have a huge poster with "you account is guaranteed", thats a fiction! Once the first bank pops, people see the fiction, and you have a bank run. The same with paper gold and/or silver. The MF Global fiasco proved that there is no physical backing for all the paper out there. People are not stupid, everybody is moving slowly into physical assets, be it gold, oil, wheat, or what ever turns you on.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:03 | 2019917 doduhdew
doduhdew's picture

Sometimes ZH looks like a bear trap.  The market never reacts to what majority of ZH participants think it would.  Investors need to do their own DD before trading solely on the information gathered here.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:04 | 2019929 redpill
redpill's picture

1. There are no more investors.  There are machines, and a handful of speculators catching knives.

2. No one should ever get their information from one source, and I don't think anyone involved with ZH would disagree.

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:04 | 2019932 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

At least it doesn't smell like one.  Phew!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:05 | 2019934 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If anyone trades on any information that isn't from their own due diligence....well, they are a 'greater' fool.

Why would you think anyone is trading on Zero Hedge 'information' alone?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:26 | 2020215 Chump
Chump's picture

Probably because he screwed himself by trading on ZH information alone.  Projection and all that.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 18:41 | 2020225 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Something to ponder, for those that have hoped…

Initiation of the Pyramid. Manly P Hall.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddHfU2wKvmc (01:23:20)

~//~

I repent. (common-sense raison d'etre, In progress, bitchez)
…even still (slight backtrack), precious metals seem like a better / barter idea than what we have now
…a non materialist, in a materialistic world, who’s kiddin’ who?
…if,   we’ll get there when we get there.
…until,   can’t take it with yah, ye gluttons
 (or maybe some of you cretins have figured away around that? )

~//~

Leonard Cohen - The Future [Official Music Video]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D97OxHZzBeQ (4:54)

leonard cohen the future live letterman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ik9Wcd6FN7M (4:47)

~//~

The Black Eyed Peas - Let's Get It Started
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqV7DB8Iwg (3:50)

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:13 | 2019960 hnaparst
hnaparst's picture

You got a lot of negative votes.  Obviously the readers here disagree with you.  The best results are obtained by not thinking independently.  :)

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:28 | 2020027 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

That's psychobabble speak for "your point is only valid only because it's different."

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:12 | 2020136 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

ahh? & Cognitive Dissonance is a goof term / psychobabble,

we already have a word for it in the sane world... guilt.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:35 | 2020242 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Or, dont base 'your results' from some silly up or down vote mechanism like a teenage girl would be worried about.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:17 | 2019967 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I have to report - it doesn't seem to make any difference.

Market's aren't behaving logically anyway, you may as well buy anything and see how it works out.

I've done OK today for no special reason at all. I just thought PMs were way too cheap, I bought (as I said I would in an earlier post here, @8.59am), waited for a few hours, then sold.  If it didn't work out, I would have sold after a short while (just now). I figure that's it for today as far as shares moving up is concerned. We'll see.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:21 | 2019995 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Investors'? LOL!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:01 | 2019921 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Hard 8s and 6s.

Folks, the Fed needs some polticial capital to support another LSAP.  Only You can sell-off this market to force their hand.  There's an easy way to go about doing this: margin calls.  It's perfect, the weak hands selling into your hands and you get to buy up whole chunks of the market on the Friday before the Sunday announcement.  Make your year by Jan 15 and buy that 4th house!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:02 | 2019924 youngman
youngman's picture

Its not a rally when everyone is out of town....beware of this week...they played the PM´s hard...but I do not see this as a trend...the talking heads have bben all over it like it is the death of Kim Yon Jung...or whatever his name is....why Italy sold bonds this week is wierd..but I think they saw all that cash the ECB gave the banks..and they wanted as much as they could get...one more day to play....then the window dressers go home..and its a new year to kick ass....and I think it will be PM´s again....

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:36 | 2020053 GoldenGal
GoldenGal's picture

pms up or down next week?

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:56 | 2020117 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I'm inclined to agree with you.  PMs take a beating in light volume (easier to naked short) meanwhile equities levitate/surge on negative data (um...UI initial claims climbed during the holidays...).  I mean, specifically with silver, if the US economy is truly growing, wouldn't silver respond positively as well since Americans will be more able to buy iPads?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:03 | 2019925 laspeyres
laspeyres's picture

No, it is pricing out yesterday's retard-trade. ECB balance sheet expansion will have no impact on the Euro, as it is only filling the banks' funding gap.  It was only halfwits (like old Art) who thought that:

  • a) the "news" of the balance sheet expansion was news yesterday when the data were released. It was not - everybody knew when the LTRO auction result was announced before Xmas that the balance sheet numbers would reflect this;
  • b) this meant that the euro would go down just like the $ did under QE2.

The ECB's action will have little impact on the currency. It reduces tail risk in the eurozone, by reducing the chance of imminent bank collapse. It is not a magic wand.  Today, we are pricing out the idiotic moves of yesterday, promoted by halfwits who don't understand economics. Thanks for the entry point.

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:03 | 2019928 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Overthinking todays action, no volume and the Algobots are on supercruise at 1259.9 S&P nothing to see here.

Financials trending down for the day lower highs, look for a selloff into the close....

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:10 | 2019945 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

All I see is oil and NYMEX wholesale gasoline *not* taking the bait on a shock dollar pop.  Very strong oil price here, seems to be basing for what could be a tough spring in which we see weak demand squared off against inflation/depreciation expectations.  Add geopolitics to that and/or any hint of solid economic recovery and oil heads for $120 and chaos.  Heck even a good Euro rumor will have it straining at the leash....

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:10 | 2019946 davhay
davhay's picture

POTUS Santorum! I like it!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:15 | 2019969 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

"Santorum" sounds like a room in the house where you go to have a particulary nasty bowel movement.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:21 | 2019994 redpill
redpill's picture

It's amazing that the western world is on the brink of socioeconomic implosion and 16% of Iowa caucus-goers still think it's important what a candidate thinks about gay marriage.

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:25 | 2020018 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I agree - whatever people, and Iowans in particular, do in the privacy of their own Santorums is none of our business, RP!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:45 | 2020055 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Red Team:  Ok to kill animals for fur, but not unborn baby human.

Blue Team:  Ok to kill unborn baby human, but not animals for fur.

Got it?  Now, go argue with each other.

Divided and conquered.

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:46 | 2020081 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well maybe I want a baby fur coat...so who do I get to argue with?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:49 | 2020094 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

A team of psychiatrists?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:52 | 2020105 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nah, my brother is a psychiatrist, he's an asshole.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:17 | 2020174 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

a startling parallel. you can't get far with an aborted seal, but that apparently far developed "embryo" is money in the bank for the multi billion dollar abortion industry. junk away.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:15 | 2020178 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

double

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:15 | 2020161 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

@ red pill that might be because the American public is in a state of irretrievable dissociation dissolution and degeneration. http://www.zombietime.com/zomblog/

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:15 | 2019968 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Oil at 120 would spell bad news for the economy quick. As for the QE, Ben is at the ready. If S&P drops France by two or US by another one and everything starts to spin out of control he will print. Doesn't matter though as that will solve nothing at this point.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:23 | 2020004 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly, theres no 'QE or no QE', we're already QE in secret print knobs pegged to 11.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:18 | 2019979 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

haha you guys just never give up!

commiserations to the REAL mob of sheeple - ZH and its followers.

after another year of nauseating and relentless whining about Fed-induced runaway inflation, endless gold rallies QEx, and a collapsing $, what we actuallly have is very tame inflation, gold at a 6 month low, still no sign of further QE and very unlikely to involve Treasuries if it does eventuate, and EURUSD near on a 12 month low.

better luck next year.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:23 | 2020003 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

...... yeah, its all good. Pass the fairy dust.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:44 | 2020077 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

The Bullshitmobile will run out of gas eventually.  Interest rates can't get much lower.  And our debt/GDP is over 100%.  What happens when its over 150%?  200%?  It works until it doesn't.  By then, you won't be able to saunter down to your local grocery store and buy a bag of groceries.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:50 | 2020097 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Do you also sit around in September and laugh at those saying that winter is coming, while pointing out the green grass, warm temperatures, leaves on the trees,...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:57 | 2020274 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

a long and artificially delayed, ever deepening and most frigid Kondriateff winter as well. http://kushmonster.blogspot.com/2010/02/prophets-profits-and-loss.html

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:58 | 2020127 ilovefreedom
ilovefreedom's picture

Obviously we are experiencing a new golden age of growth and prosperity:

Massive unemployment - how nice people don't have to go into the office!

Massive empire - don't you feel safer with hundreds of military bases around the world?!

Massive government intervention - new records for spending and bailouts

 

We should feel blessed to live in such a time, compared to say, the dark ages.

I heard there was this new video game out on the market, the American Dream, do you know where I can buy it? I am hearing it's been out of stock for the last decade.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:28 | 2020130 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

QE?  well, many CB's will hafta print or the new debt won't "sell"

sterilization?  in this sewer?  mebbe...only yer bankster knows, for sure...

personally, i just think this is people taking some dough off the table b4 the weekend and the NewYear, but perhaps tyler's conjection is on the mark.  it is by no means impossible:  if the chairsatan et al can't keep the dollar down by supporting the euro, lo, these many moons, he has an invention...

what has amazed me this year, even given my jaded and foggy years, is that the inflation was (seemingly) transitory (remember that historic 1st press conference) and the dastardly bastard actually reined in the freaking commodity markets and got a little 'deflation'.  you noticed, too i see!

to me this is "the big wtf?" going into 2012;  can the banksters sustain this dance or were they just lucky, here, as the shitty economy and the fuked-up combo of "re-fi & deleveraging" destroyed "wealth and capital" about as fast and effectively as the printings generated "money"?

has the benzelbub discovered that the "0ff" button is more effective than the "0n" button on that invention at this point?  i thought so, last june/july, but tyler's point is certainly well-made, here, especially given the damned US budget (did we get one, yet?)

will letting the dollar rise here serve a satanic purpose?  well, for starters, it will make dollar-holders a bit happier and slow the "new world currency" rhetoric and moves.  it will also allow prez0 to run on "a strong dollar" as i predicted last august...

as long as the price of wheat falls as fast as the dollar rises won't the world still have plent0'bread for the ongoing 3-ring show "Under the Big Top"?  or will unexpected consequences sweep in like a clusterflock of black swans? 

how is the world's confidence in the IOUs & paper ponzies gonna do next year?  only the next 366 (leap year, BiCheZ!) daze of lies and bullshit will tell the tale...

my advice?  keep stackin!  keep buying supplies and preparing for a "spectrum" of futures! and keep practicing independence of thought and BEing...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:27 | 2020219 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

@alexandertroll. i hope you have lots of money in the bank because in addition to experiencing the ongoing and escalating inflationary trend of the last 70 odd years which you've apparently ignored, you're about to experience a 40% devaluation of your FRN confetti. your short term is about to run out. "you can avoid reality but you can't avoid the consequences of avoiding reality." ha ha. the last laughs on you.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:18 | 2019980 Zola
Zola's picture

I would like to know ewactly who was selling PMs this week and investigate whether this was another blatant manipulation to shake people out of their positions. There is a difference between trading and trying to move the market your way to paint the tape. Only massive players can do that but this is the lawlessness that reigns in the market where these people are allowed to do something totally illegal (market manipulation, running of stops etc)

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:22 | 2019997 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

The walls of my silver fort have never looked more solid.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:08 | 2020164 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

A silver fort. Bitchen!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:37 | 2020249 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

methinks that the large commercials are taking are "taking the gold and the euros in the hand and leaving the spec funds with the dollars and T-bills in the bush."ha ha. props to Stewart Thompson, a most prescient and perceptive investor.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:18 | 2019981 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Deflationary Death Spiral in Progress for the worst Depression in history from what I can see. Just take a look at the Quadrillions of leveraged derivatives, unemployment, foreclosures, defaults, bankruptcies, plunging markets and so on.

And as for "Balanced" derivatives, that's BS since to have a "balance" you need at least two players and if many players/gamblers go belly up (think MF Global) then you don't have no "balance" anymore.

Good luck!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:25 | 2020011 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

But....the 'news' is GOOD! Party on? Anyone? Hello?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 18:15 | 2020494 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Derivatives and dollars vs. acres and ounces.

Common stores of value when the Constitution was written are making a comeback.   

Derivatives are commonly called "insurance", but they have zero capitalization requirement, equal to their intrinsic value. 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:21 | 2019996 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I think they got all the mileage they could out of MF Global.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:50 | 2020035 uno
uno's picture

Looking at the charts silver seems destined for a break of 25, the 62% retrace is around 24.50 from the 08 lows to 11 highs; the cartel can do anything they want with the paper price.  I do think the cartel is exiting the shorts from yesterday's gotgoldreport article and getting long.  There must be a lot of stops to run around the weekly trend line breaks arould 25 to get very long very fast.  Another day in free market utopia.

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:30 | 2020037 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Wish I had a silver fort.

Anyhow, besides the downgrades that are coming, all the debt to be rolled over, and the potential for QE I think Q4 earnings are going to be one spicey meatball with all that has gone down this quarter.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:45 | 2020056 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

The Italy 10 yr says No..as does the Greek 10 Yr and Pm's.  It looks as if 2011 was one Big Rounding Top pattern in schtocks.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:44 | 2020076 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

1 thing that annoys me about ZH is the ever present 'Is this cause for QE?' pumping crap..what, based on half a days trading in year end empty markets? Always begging for a QE. Or thats the impression I get anyway.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:48 | 2020091 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

I agree.  It will happen eventually.  Same with Jefferies.  For a few weeks, you woulda thought Jeffries was leaving 35,000 feet for a crash site at 10,000 feet per minute.  Stocks at almost $14 a share.  Is it going to crash or not?

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