Is Today's Market Pricing A Forthcoming Reactionary-QE By The Fed?
Our earlier discussion of the relationship between ECB and Fed balance sheets as the driver of risk correlations this year seems particularly timely as we are seeing quite notable divergences among US asset classes and FX flows today. EUR is now up relative to the USD on the day (DXY is down and tracking stocks higher), Treasury yields are falling fast and the curve flattening (2s10s30s dropping rapidly) and Silver is rallying hard off its lows (Gold perhaps being held back for now by collateral/cash/redemption calls for now). Oil is back green for the week also. Is the market starting to comprehend that the non-QE of the ECB's LTRO and SMP is in fact QE and implies the currency wars just went to 11 - forcing the Fed's hand?
Dollar (inverted) vs S&P 500 vs 10Y Yields.
Commodities are starting to surge again. Even Gold is now on the move too.
Charts: Bloomberg
(7 votes)
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Komprehenshun, bitchez!
b.b..but I thought there wasn't going to be any more QE. Poor Mr. Denninger's head is going to explode.
Who? The same Mr. Denninger who bleated incessantly that Chairman Ben wouldn't take interest rates on a Japanese-style ZIRP ride back in 2007-2008? I challenged him on each and every cut, saying Ben would, while Mr. Denninger said he would not.
The same Mr. Denninger who posts more tickers on his forum per day than other people post replies or threads to his forum?
The same Mr. Denninger who bans anybody who disagrees with him?
Yeah, that's the one. I know it.
The same. The guy that said gold wasn't going anywhere.
I don't know if the market is frontrunning a QE announcement, but I do know that QE is going on under the cover of darkness. Two or more European banks were fueled up in the last 60 days, as ZH reported. Benocide can't announce it though, because doing so would show the USD what it really is - a POS.
I continue to buy PM's, not so much based on a potential QE announcement, but because the global bankers are FORCED to print, are printing, and will print, but are not formerly announcing it, at the same time holding PM's down. I also believe the Crimex is coming to a head with its crooked and fraudulent schemes, so PM's are my choice right now.
And I don't need to do anything, just sit back and watch. The banksters need to be active everyday, sweating, hoping, manipulating. Not PM holders... we have the real deal.
Soros sees gold prices on verge of bear market (bloomberg, today) - Russel: under $1500 gold tanks.
Point: if US survives - and EU and China tanks - it will not be due to the inherent moral, philosophical and productive capacity of the US citizenry, but to its absolute submissiveness to its elite - and to its henchmen, the ruthless and purely self-absorbed bankster and security scum, who run the US - the world's second largest economy - after EU.
Gold is tanking, Bitchez - and who do you thank for that?
There is already more dope in the pipeline.
Yet another day I feel like spontaneously combusting right the fuck off the planet!
Don't combust, rest your head on Bernanke lap.
On other topic, Ron Paul needs to stop responding to newsletter question. When asked about newsletter, instead he should talk of what he's done for civil rights, talk of MLK vote, ignore assholes who try to put him on defensive.
Don't poke fun at the Karl or he might ban ZH posts from his forum.
.
.
.
Oh - wait -- half the posts on his forum are re-posts of original ZH stuff
Market is pricing in decoupling.
In other delusions Santorum will become POTUS, and i will become Mrs. George Clooney.
Happy New Year indeed.
Can I be the new Peter North?
Only if you use QE to SPOO.
Apparently, stranger things have happened!
"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_8TGTKdrlY"
Oh, can I be Peter Faulk?
"Ah, I'm really sorry to be such a bother to you Mr Romney but please...one more question. Why are you such a duesch Bag?"
Whadyaa mean "phucktards" isn't a word?
In 24 hours, Gold will have outperformed the S&P by at least 5% on the year, even after the coordinated bashings.
Print away Ben, I triple dog dare 'ya..
And I triple time beg you
QE right now is just plain suicidal. Hard to justify a QE, even a stealth one with prices where they are. I would say the market has become too stupid for itself. Front running a QE in advance like this does nothing but delay QE. Also, the markets are up just becuase they do not want to end the year down.
Agreed. Bernanke launching QE3 with equities where they are makes him look like a villain that only cares about the wealthy financial oligarchs (which he is). Bernanke would much rather appear to be a savior (Can he be Time's Man of the Year again?) by launching QE3 with markets plunging.
My guess is that S&P gives us a nice New Years present sometime in January and downgrades all of Europe. Equities plunge, dollar strengthens, and Bernanke with his new dove majority can launch QE3.
the choice is not bernanke's. he is front man for a very large cabal. he, like obama and the european leaders, will do what they are told, and when they are told...
I totally understand and agree. I just say "Bernanke" because it's shorter than "the illuminati lucifarian financial oligarchy." Bernanke's just a front man like you said. I'm sure they have some dirt on him just like everyone else in power which is how they control them.
good point. need some good shorthand for these clowns that doesn't inflate their importance... i suspect that the bernanke puppet is an actual member of that cult... the politicians, not so much... just dumb and corrupted.
I see S&P at 900 before WSJ and Bloomberg beg him to do QE3? What do you guys think? 950? 1000?
Share prices and paper wealth values going down is not the end of the world.
I find absurd the current wide-spread obsession on somebody having to do a QE somewhere. A couple of years ago nobody even knew what a QE is. We should all just move along and find a new event fetish somewhere else.
Possibly one angle that ZeroHedge has not studied much yet is the "global economic war" impact of QEs.
On the one hand QEs debase the currency, leading to potentially a weaker fx-rate which is good from the "currency war" point of view to the country doing the QE. On the other hand, we have different fingers... just joking... the QE is a "global freebie" for the other countries, who get part of the improved purchasing power of the free helicopter money as demand boost for their products and financial instruments.
Methinks he who QEs last or not at all, wins this global game.
Oh I agree with the conclusion. But it doesn't help with 6 month horizon investing. As to QE, central banking is based on continuous QE as a functioning mechanism. The reason it's called QE now is just camouflage as if it is something that never happened before. If not continuous QE, no need for a central bank. The question is how much of QE at any given time.
ekm
Bout time some folks woke up around here.
QE has NEVER stopped,it's going full bore, by another name, or no name at all.
QE pissed of the working class,so they now just do what they want, since we are no longer a Republic, and no longer are citizens with any rights,Why should they give a flying fook what WE think?
Answer: They don't, and their doing anything and everything they damn well please.
They learned Partial honesty was not the best policy, so they back tracked to the old ways.
It's far easier to get forgiveness than permission.
But since we have gone FULL FASCISM, it just doesn't matter.
They need neither.
Really John, well what if theyre told 'WW3 starts tomorrow'? Do people really think 'the plan' now is just to keep printing and floating around these stupid markets FOREVER? Hardly.
see my comment just a few inches down the screen.
well, maybe it has already been in the prices?
how about US pensioners realizing that on the back of 2.8% 30 yr US Treasuries, their pensions are massively UNDERFUNDED not only because of their underperforming plan-assets but also because of that delusional strong USD and all time low 30 yrs.. I guess sometime they use 10 yr IG corps but even they are in a bubble territory, if not inside of that..
so, to your point, uncle Ben better start being a savior for those said US pensioners
SeverinSlade, I see S&P at 900 before WSJ and Bloomberg beg him to do QE3? What do you think?
It may get that low. They really defended the 1080 mark last time. Anything below that is going to sound the alarms. Whatever happens though it's going to happen fast. We're not going to have a controlled fall down.
Thx a lot for the answer. Could you elaborate on "THEY". Plunge Protection Team? If yes, what do you think is their capital? It's always finite capital and they can't defend 1080 for a long time if no suckers get on board to comply? I'm eager to know your feedback. Thx.
Guys, Tyler is talking about ECB LTRO not actual QE3 here. QE3 is happening in disguise which the markets are now waking up to.
And is the Fed going to rescue China when its economy collapse from the property bubble?
The Fed can't rescue the world from the end of the debt super bubble. The Fed is replacing exogenesis risk with endogenious risk (more money printing via swap lines) . Risk isn't removed. It's reshuffled. But someone is going to have to pay very soon (2012--trillions in debt rollovers).
Whether it's the pleb (general pop) via hyperinflation, or the elites from a massive asset deflation.
they need to keep it going just long enough to unleash the wars and the crackdowns...
The way I look at it, they just need SOPA passed, theyve got NDAA Indefinite Detention bill passed already, and then its takedown time. People who are now conditioned to believe we just keep printing to support fake bankrupt markets with 0% interest funny money to 'keep things looking stable forever' will get the rudest awakening in human history real soon.
yeah, i totall agree... wealth was never the end game.... just a means to the end (total control by a small class. this story is as old as time, but most are dead asleep. eyes wide shut? kubrick was trying to tell us something but most still are not listening.
Right, those 'elites' dont care about MONEY or STOCKS...theyre grabbing up every resource in the world. When you own all the oil, and food production, and the dirt itself, money means nothing at all, you own everything. Money is for peasants.
The owner of the resort doesnt need to worry about paying his bar tab, he owns the whole damn place.
yup, like a giant game of musical chairs.... when the music stops, the cabal has all the chairs while the peasants hold a pile of worthless paper. anything they didn't get when before the music stop, they use control to just take away... off to the fema camp if you complain.
Did Obama sign NDAA?
If he did that one skipped past me. I'll down vote myself.
Oops, that's from last year... sorry. Not sure if he signed it yet or not.
It is listed as "pending" on whitehouse website.
Since I forced myself to look, I'm going to go puke now.....
ding...ding...ding! We got a winner!!! :-) About control of the people.
http://www.thedailybell.com/3355/VIDEO-Evelyn-De-Rothschild-on-Chinas-Gr...
hard to understand why those crazy tin foil hat types think that the rothschilds are evil... /sarc:
http://fellowshipofminds.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/baroness-philippine-mathilde-camille-de-rothschild-3.jpg
thankyou for the link :-))
to begin with, evelyn is a very complex person,... but, with a great many fine qualities that some agree to, and others disagree with - besides the point - that being apart of the rothschild family, he is very much different philosophically, and fantastically pragmatic with a heartfelt humanitarian side for the little guy --- fact is, i find this rothschild to be quite upstanding regarding his sensitivity to the world's betterment, and for all mankind in general.
ps. when i hear all the negative things said about evelyn,... i wonder aloud just how could this be --- just my gut feeling i suppose, but, i've always been a contrarian to heresy and the horrible psychological damage it fosters/creates with lasting/ unwarranted stigmatization.
jmo
~$100 oil and Bernank starting QE-3 ($150 oil, $5 gas, and 9% unemployment to help re-elect da ganstar)?!?
Nah, ain't gonna happen.
They (NY Fed, JPM [aka Fed's proxy], and Goldman [aka Bernank's master]) would have to bear raid oil before Bernank can resume any money printing.
What you see today is PMs flagrantly marking up equities on record low volume fumes.
Just do QE3 and attack Iran and blame the rise of oil on Iran. The sheeple will believe it.
You are correct -- da gansta attacking Iran kills two birds with one stone (attract Jewish voters and having a convenient scapegoat to blame for high oil prices).
I dont understand why we are talking about QE. The markets are great. Stocks are up. Bond yeilds are down. 3 Stooges releases in April and Jim Carrey has a new girlfriend...
He could have al least called me to tell me we were done.
Bastard.
Stocks are up?? Huh? From when? Feb 2009?
Stock indexes about 1999 levels. The avg american in a new Forever Lazy is not very hard to fool at all.
FOREVER LAZY COMMERCIAL - YouTube
I noticed something.
http://i44.tinypic.com/1580etv.jpg
Why complain ?
Since 1995
Nasdaq 100 up 400%
Dow C up 200%
:-) Dont worry - just kidding ....
I wonder how those stats would look like, if one anchors them to the fed's balance sheet.
The only thing that is going up, is numbers.
And since when did the man behind the curtain, the Big Boss, have to justify anything.
Amazing it's taken this long to sink in.
Looks like negative divergence to me...
Manipulate a yearend rally in "risk on assets" the fed would never do that.
Yup, Bernanke is definitely going to embark on QE3 with the DOW at 13,000 and S&P at 1350.
Better start accumulating your shorts.
Vix is at 22. That signals a nice quiet entry point.
QE bitchez!
Gold bitchez!
Silver bitchez!
Hell...
Apocalypse bitchez!
Gold says, My head hurts
oil over 75-80 you will NOT see QE no matter what happens.
Absolutely correct.
Chief of Fed Rev is a political position. Fed is not independent at all. Kudos to knight99. Any money printed will go straight to oil. Look at it now, That little QE that is always going on, is focusing on crude oil.
I was trading today pretty active.
The dollar went down just before news about jobs was realesed. 10 minutes before just came back from the lows
After than Gold begin to stabilise and Silver to rally.
So I had the same feeling about QE. Maybe not yet in the cards but the FED or the media pundits can talk down the dollar for now.
"as we are seeing quite notable divergences among US asset classes and FX flows today."
Now THAT's a Cognitive Dissonance if ever I saw one. :)
TLT still up
TNX at 1.88/1.89...
well, up 2 u...
I just bought my first Silver bar this week.
Last week I bought my first gold bar. near 1700 :(
:)
physical :)
Congrats.
Now to counter your depression take a $1 bill and tear it into shreds. Then ask yourself. What is that piece of ripped paper worth? Nothing really.
Now take your gold and rip it to...oh thats right. You cant destroy real money.
Ignore the Fiat price and BTFD. If it was good at 1700 its a deal at 1600. Im hoping for 1400.
It's much more satisfying to use it as toilet paper after you have a bout of explosive diahrrea.
you can stop eating the thanksgiving leftovers already.
Before you use it to wipe you might want to flash a black light over it. About as sanitary as my keyboard. I wouldnt recommend you use a black light on the keyboard when I'm around though...too embarassing.
I locked in 6 monster box Silver Eagles @ under $15,000 yesterday.
These prices are a gift. I used my credit line. When prices go back up
early next year, and they will, I will sell my paper silver (slv) and pay off
my credit line. The time has come to turn paper into physical before the
paper turns to dust. If it goes down more tomorrow, I will double down.
Ok but DO NOT buy more. It's going lower. Wait for later to buy it cheaper.
huh? wait till LATER? good luck with that one...
Never wait. Always add. Ignore paper price.
That's a nice habit you're forming. Congratulations.
Nothing they have done has kept the euro up. Bottom line. They have thrown about everything they can throw at it and they will throw more QE at it. Does not matter. Nothing will stop this train wreck. Add it all up and the S&P has done notta YTD and the Euro has dipped below year lows. Pathetic. Nothing is going to stop the bleeding.
I think you are reading too much into it.
The dollar is down because it is a safe asset. The news in the US is viewed as "no recession", so risk-on.
Gold has fallen recently as a natural reaction to deflation fears. Again, with the positive US news, this is not an issue, so metals trade up.
'No recession'...oh sure as long as the far larger 800 lb gorilla depression in the room can continue to be ignored, and the firehose of free 0% money to the banks keeps flowing.
I am just trying to interpret what Mr. Market was saying today. I'm not saying that there won't be a recession in the U.S.
Well we're already at depression for 2 years at least, just papered over with $30 trillion or so fake money... this depression when it crashes in wont be an 'old timey' depression like before, with a pencil cup and 'brother, can you spare a few million bucks for a bowl of soup' kind of depression at all.
Fellas, fellas, fellas, no no no! It's the "data" stupid!
From BBG-propaganda station:
Stocks Rally on Economic DataU.S. stocks rose, restoring the yearly gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as data signaled the U.S. economy is weathering Europe’s debt crisis. The euro erased an earlier loss and European shares advanced.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.7 percent to 1,258.76 at 1:21 p.m. in New York, leaving it up 0.1 percent for the year. The euro was little changed at $1.2940, after losing as much as 0.6 percent, and trimmed a 0.8 percent slide against the yen to 0.3 percent. Italy’s 10-year bond yield was up less than three basis points at 7.03 percent after climbing 13 basis points earlier. Ten-year U.S. Treasury rates lost two basis points to 1.90 percent.
U.S. equities extended gains (SPX) as an index of pending U.S. home sales rose more than economists forecast, while other reports showed stronger-than-projected growth in American business activity and a drop in jobless claims over the past month to a three-year low. European stocks fell earlier, while the euro touched a decade low against the yen and a 15-month low versus the dollar, after Italy raised less than its maximum target at a debt auction.
“There has been a much better tone in the U.S.,” Richard Sichel, who oversees $1.6 billion as chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., said in a telephone interview. “We’re optimistic that corporate earnings can continue to be strong and that will be a driver of the market.”
Oh man they're trying hard to spin it. Kitchen sink ain't got nuthin' on what BBG is throwing out...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-29/asia-stocks-fall-for-third-day-...
And yet there's that pesky red blinking light on the dashboard called a sub 2% US10Y.
'US economy weathering Europe debt crisis'...well sure, as long as US own far larger debt crisis can continue to be ignored as the foaming at the mouth 800 lb gorilla in the corner.
Obama demanding tomorrow another $1.2 trillion debt...not even in the news...the news is GOOD! Now get back on those oars and ROW harder! Fuking peasants!
time to cue the rating agencies.....
"Strong corporate earnings"...LOL! Let's ask Sears, Oracle, RIMM, and TI about those earnings.
Bloomberg talks gold: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-29/gold-bubble-seen-by-soros-ends-...
This is becoming hilarious! They are trying to bring gold down on year end to be in line with gains by the S&P and the DOW! You can`t let gold be a better investment. Anyways this is irrelevant, pr the 100 to 1 they are trading in the papper markets.
Per Harvey Organ: "Thus the total number of gold ounces standing in this delivery month is as follows:
2,206,800 oz (served) + 6,000 (oz to be served upon) = 2,212,800 oz or 68.82 tonnes of gold.
If we add the "non delivery" month of Nov gold at 1.77 tonnes from options exercised we have a total of 70.59 tonnes of gold. Thus the percentage standing is 70.59/78.59 or 89.62% and yet no physical gold enters."
So the COMEX is in defacto default on physical! Also, Harvey pointed out that HSBC and JPM have huge short positions in the metals markets which they need to mark on year end. So bear raid after bear raid on thin volume. BTFD, you won`t be sorry. Gold is MONEY, was money, and it will be money, because it`s installed hardware, it`s in our DNA. We see gold as a store of value, and have so for thousands of years. That will not change. There have been 4000 FIAT REGIMES in the last 4000 years! None survive to this day! What makes you think this time is different? Ask yourself why do central banks hold huge amounts of gold if it`s a barbarous relic? Why do all the rich people own this stuff? generation after generation. Or, as another puts it, it is easy to walk in the footsteps of giants. Buy gold and forget about it! Visit your physical in 5 years.