Is Today's Market Pricing A Forthcoming Reactionary-QE By The Fed?
Our earlier discussion of the relationship between ECB and Fed balance sheets as the driver of risk correlations this year seems particularly timely as we are seeing quite notable divergences among US asset classes and FX flows today. EUR is now up relative to the USD on the day (DXY is down and tracking stocks higher), Treasury yields are falling fast and the curve flattening (2s10s30s dropping rapidly) and Silver is rallying hard off its lows (Gold perhaps being held back for now by collateral/cash/redemption calls for now). Oil is back green for the week also. Is the market starting to comprehend that the non-QE of the ECB's LTRO and SMP is in fact QE and implies the currency wars just went to 11 - forcing the Fed's hand?
Dollar (inverted) vs S&P 500 vs 10Y Yields.
Commodities are starting to surge again. Even Gold is now on the move too.