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Market Reaction: Priced In (So Far) Except For Gold

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite an initial knee-jerk higher on the 'ratification' confirmation, risk-asset markets seems less than enamored at the new European Conditional Union. European and US stocks popped but are falling back now - only marginally higher. EURUSD is back to pre-decision levels - though swung around in some crazy stop-seeking runs up and down. Bunds and TSYs are modestly higher in yield; Spainish and Italian bond yields are flat (so spreads are marginally lower). The biggest movers are Gold and Silver so far.

 

Pre-Karlsruhe: EUR 1.2870, Spain 10Y 5.677%, ES 1434, 10Y TSY 1.7100%, 10Y Bund 1.5700%, BE500 (Stocks) 187.13 (as the decision was made EURUSD cracked 60 pips lower and back up - perfectly normal algo stop-run)

Post-Decision : EUR 1.2875 (+5pips), Spain 10Y 5.70% (+3bps), ES 1436 (+2pts), 10Y TSY 1.732% (+2bps), 10Y Bund 1.614% (+4bps), BE500 (stocks) 187.7 (+.57)

 

Gold...

 

and EURUSD...

 

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Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:40 | 2784523 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 The markets can't figure out what in the hell to do! Chickens running around with their heads chopped off!

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:50 | 2784542 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

The "markets" are selling the US$ (in case you didn't notice). US$s dead cat bounce appears to be over. EUR shorts - I am soooo sorry for you and your crowded, turned-sour, "EURO will vanish by 2010 no 2011 no 2012 no 2013 no ..." trade.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:55 | 2784552 magpie
magpie's picture

Just short the Euro via Gold, Silver, AUD and CAD...problem solved.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:03 | 2784567 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

whatever it takes to get your euro hating rocks off...

closet dollar lover

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:10 | 2784571 magpie
magpie's picture

Tsk. Just being realistic.

Lovely Euro - if the dollar is becoming meaningless as a measure the Euro is becoming it too. Like i have said here before, might as well just peg it.

The shorting please in the order stated in post above.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:45 | 2784619 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

The EU only said they will print as much as it takes, we have not heard Bernanke's number yet. The Euro should be plummeting right now, but instead it is rising, because idiots who don't understand currency debasement think printing to maintain the currency is a good idea.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:54 | 2784633 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Inflation is better than a crash. With inflation I might have to pay more for food, but at least I'm eating. With a crash, I might not eat...that's how those idiots are thinking!

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:01 | 2784644 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

Here is how dire the US Dollar situation is

ECB about to print a fuckload of notes

yet EUR/USD higher

so the dollar is devaluing FASTER than the Euro

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:25 | 2784663 magpie
magpie's picture

Concluding that the Bernank not announcing QE 3 tomorrow will trash the Dollar even more...

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:54 | 2784634 magpie
magpie's picture

People use Japan as the standard counterxample, but it is an even less helpful comparison to the EU than to the USA. The EU has to deal with higher interest rates out of the gate, so has to print more.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:52 | 2784630 adamas
adamas's picture

if they peg it the HFT boxes can't scalp humanity via pre-ordained (reuters controlled) back n forth volatility... THIEVING BASTARDS,  they should all fry in Dante's inferno

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:46 | 2784621 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

I wouldn't buy AUD, or CAD to short the Euro. If those countries run into economic problems, what is to stop them from printing money?

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:51 | 2784629 magpie
magpie's picture

Nothing really. I put those behind the PMs, where else is the free EU cash going to flow ? US equities, maybe food. Oil seems to be capped in the moment.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:32 | 2784669 Tirpitz
Tirpitz's picture

Oil seems to get ready for a breakout to the upside. The chart looks quite bullish.

No wonder, considering the usurious race pushing the world towards another world war...

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:05 | 2784648 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

The AUD.

The current left wing government inherited a budget surplus and has pissed it all away.

The electorate know it and aren't happy.

Printing money would kill any party's re-election chances for 10 years due to the perceived shame.

Never say never but its unlikely.

With interest rates at about 3.5% there is room to move there.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:13 | 2784555 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I don't trade the euro? I'm flat by the way. There is Italian and German bond auctions coming up in the next 30 minutes. Have a good day :-)     http://www.forexpros.com/rates-bonds/government-bond-spreads

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:45 | 2784682 defencev
defencev's picture

Not so fast. My portfolio is going through the roof. But it is important to stay cool.

It is time to make real money. One should carefully to start loading on HK and SGD. I do not own Euro and do not plan to (talking about dead cat bouncing). It is safer to play through proxies like Swiss franc and Norwegian crona.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:41 | 2784525 walidsassia
walidsassia's picture

the Key word is SO FAR , since these Guys just keep buying everything and anything and any news.

 

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:41 | 2784526 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Actually, the biggest mover seems to be platinum: up over $30.00...

 

 

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:27 | 2784599 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

Definitely, particularly, when considering continuing and perhaps progressing strikes in SA. This may soon happen to gold as well.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:34 | 2784672 Tirpitz
Tirpitz's picture

But gold ain't printed in South Africa...

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:41 | 2784527 GernB
GernB's picture

To the moon Alice.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:45 | 2784530 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

Even the gold move seems insignificant really. A few bucks. Now tomorrow,... that's gonna be a different story I think.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:44 | 2784532 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Buy more ICRAP and Waffle Irons? Sheeples are once again led to the slaughterhouse.

 

Holiday retail sales seen up 3.3 percent: ShopperTrak

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/holiday-retail-sales-seen-3-040258634.html

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:49 | 2784538 GaryNeville
GaryNeville's picture

This european soap opera is just getting boring now..

Are there any humans left in the market? It's like Terminator Judgement day - the machines have decided they no longer need us......!

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:49 | 2784541 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

why should the markets be impressed, they know we'll be here, political brats with their begging bowls, in short order again 

the Judges have bought time with money but resolved nothing 

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:36 | 2784677 Tirpitz
Tirpitz's picture

What else would you have expected from some aging youngsters with barely any real word experience, let alone some spine to do the right thing come hell or high water?

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:52 | 2784545 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

BUNDESSQUIDFASSUNGSGERIGHT

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:55 | 2784549 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

LOL. Nice, I think I am gonna throw up my breakfast. Time for some whiskey

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:04 | 2784569 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

Perfect. Downright scaring with his obscene luciferian grin. Fancy dress helps hide his goat legs

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:08 | 2784573 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Iron Chef Mini-Me.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:08 | 2784574 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

LLoyd looks faaaabulous in Kardinals of Karlsuhe red - and that impish grin!

Those robes are a perfecto match to the bloody river that his crew leaves where they operate.

What a cute brute!

What a scoundrel!

Don't we loooooove our monsters!

; >

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:21 | 2784592 schatzi
schatzi's picture

He looks kinda familiar. Now where have I seen this shitbag before?

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:43 | 2784615 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Kill it!  Kill it with fire!!!

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:40 | 2784680 TIMBEEER
TIMBEEER's picture

HELP! .. Silver bullets, wooden sticks, anyone? Anyone? Holy water, Garlic .. you just can't kill thise things!

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:46 | 2784688 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

he'll actually kill himself if you don't bail him out

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:41 | 2784681 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

I have a question, WB7.

Why is it that you don't seem to rake Chinese leaders over the coals in the same way you do Western leaders?

You do live in China, right? You've got a front row seat.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:56 | 2784554 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

I don't need a high court to legalize the wrongdoings of fascist pigs, I need the people to open their fucking eyes...HUMANS WAKE THE FUCK UP, YOU ARE PATHETIC AND DESERVE THIS ASSRAPING!!!!

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:02 | 2784562 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

I give up. Humanity is lost. Somebody turn out the lights when they leave.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:07 | 2784572 GernB
GernB's picture

This is one of the last stops that can be pulled. After Germany has had it's credit rating destroyed and it's people turned into debt slaves and Spain, Itally, Greece and now Germany can no longer afford their sovergn debts, then what will they do?

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:45 | 2784618 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Easy, RIOT!

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:39 | 2784660 obessoligarch
obessoligarch's picture

here is the answer this is what they should do.What about selling cheap to china?

 

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:01 | 2784563 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

interest rates GER climbinng:

 

www.cds-info.com

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:04 | 2784568 GernB
GernB's picture

What is the purpose of a constitutional court again... oh that's right, to make sure the can can be kicked a few more feet by throwing the lives of the German people into the machinery.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:05 | 2784570 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Fantatic, the EU is saved, party time ... but with conditions .... PARTEEEEEEE ... German involvement  just €190billion  (needle scratch across the record) .... what €190 billion .... what about the €1.5 trilion they've already backstopped .... silence on the dancefloor ......................................................... ooops! ...... PAAAAARRRRRRTTTTTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE muppets.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:49 | 2784626 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Is there actually a part of the German law that says you can only back 190B more Euros, or did the court make up that number?

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:09 | 2784578 ivars
ivars's picture

Fullfilment of the first part of this prediction has started:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=2440#p39469

Lets see what level the prices reach, snap back before FOMC ( which will be also PM positive)

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:29 | 2784600 new game
new game's picture

G and S at key resist = 1750/34

what else matters?

who the fuck cares what they do in the end?

fuck em and position acordingly.

short, long or pm

I'll take PM and back to zzzzzzz

wake me up at 50+ on the phy silv...

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:42 | 2784613 new game
new game's picture

190 B slide into world pot of fiat

bend over the spank benank

slide in 500b to mb securities

or combo of long dated 10's and 30's - mb

hey, he will own the market sooooon

only buyer soon enuf.

pm will price this madness accordingly.

china to up the ante and build cities and roads to empty cities

sure enuf.  peg to stay as all is fine in fiat wunderland.

BUT the pm spirts for a barameter of the madness as the minions go on to the appl store.

got that dial tuned to nfl, amerika's got talent freak show or your next idol...

the top spins until it doesnt.

stagflation at its best - the sheeple fucked again and they think(not) all is fine

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:48 | 2784622 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

I'm a nobody.  I don't do markets, I only have a 401k.  I'm a thousandairre.

To me, what I'm expecting is a slingshot.  We're going to see a dip in the dollar as the fed loads it's slingshot sack full of QE.  Investors in Europe are going to be uncomfortable with the limit of the German exposure, at some point, and start flooding back into the US market.

Initially, the dollar droops lower than my 50+ pecker, then it gets a nice dose of buyagra and hikes the dollar upwards as the world frets over the German limit.  During that period gold and silver fall in price relative to the dollar and it is 'load the truck' time.

Somewhere in the midst of this, China and Russia refuse to accept dollars for any sort of transaction and agitate to go to a duo reserve currency.

We that bought start digging holes for our stash, and foxholes for everyone else we care about. 

I'm pretty sure we're fucked in this deal.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:57 | 2784642 new game
new game's picture

get that 401 money out!!!!!

just got 403b money out.

takes some effort but can be done.

10 percent penalty and taxed on amt, but already covered with pm purch -I fucking have in my phy possesion!

not some pie in the sky corzinable brokerage (key word broker)!!!!!!!!

think chile my friend.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 12:40 | 2786304 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

What people don't realize about brokers is that the word "broker" is actually the middle one of a simple progression:   broke, broker, brokest.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 02:11 | 2793628 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Have tried repeatedly.  As it is now, the only way to get it is to quit my job.  I can't do that at this point.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 05:56 | 2784640 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Judges bought and paid for in every continent. Nice plan , and to think USSA is the fucking shining light , to whatever.

Obesity

Drugs

Whining

Inbreeding

Iphones

Icraps

Nike crap

Nordstrom, Kohls Crap

More fucking inbred crap and on and on

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:14 | 2784653 hedgeisforpussies
hedgeisforpussies's picture

so much hostility. nothing wrong happened. eur will go to 140. sp to 1520. just trade it. then it will go down. so trade it again. its not the end of the world. went thru roman empire, middle ages, napoleonic wars, ww1, ww2 and lots of other disasters. keep calm and carry on. 

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:46 | 2784686 Tirpitz
Tirpitz's picture

Nothing wrong happened?? ALL what's happening is going the wrong way, and deliberately so.

Time to wake up, or maybe rather not.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:23 | 2784659 nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

And pry tell, what happens when the chinese, russians, indians, etc. who all have been buying up gold as fast as they can, come out one day with a partially gold backed currency?  Both the dollar and euro will be dead in the water.  It will be the golden shot heard round the world.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 07:31 | 2784689 Tirpitz
Tirpitz's picture

"Both the dollar and euro will be dead in the water."

Backed by senile supreme courts and bankrupt bankers:

In Debt We Trust!

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:25 | 2784661 Monedas
Monedas's picture

"Hoarders have more fun !"   Wisdom is like a kaleidoscope .... with every twist .... the simple wisdom is revealed in sparkling colour !      Monedas     1929       Comedy Jihad I Approve This Message Tour

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:33 | 2784670 SoundMoney45
SoundMoney45's picture

The court could either preserve the status quo, or cut government budgets by defaulting on bonds or reducing other budget items.  The "Powers That Be" had but one option.  

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:48 | 2784691 Tirpitz
Tirpitz's picture

... which put an apparently safe own retirement on top of the agenda.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:38 | 2784674 TIMBEEER
TIMBEEER's picture

This is REALLY GREAT for the GREAT UNITED STATES OF EUROPE (cough cough)!

Why? Oh, this gives me more time to get out of FIAT, I have secured a great number of excellent deals for my company in 2013!

I just hope these "sound Europeans" (vomiting voices) can even prolong this crap until 2014..

 

Btw, is there any way I can vote these clowns like Barroso, Monti, Gollum van Rumpoy? Ah, forgot, these were unelected fascists - but I would vote them anyway. Just keep the train on track a little further ...

 

 

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 07:00 | 2784716 Law97
Law97's picture

A number of notable equity bears have capitulated this week.  Does this mean the top is finally in, or does this mean that I am the only short left who hasn't gotten the memo?  I must admit, it looks like there is no way to stop this (nominal) train.  Too bad my shorts aren't measured in real terms!

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 08:14 | 2784969 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The Obama algos are pushing for a top after November 6.  

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