Market Reaction: Priced In (So Far) Except For Gold

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite an initial knee-jerk higher on the 'ratification' confirmation, risk-asset markets seems less than enamored at the new European Conditional Union. European and US stocks popped but are falling back now - only marginally higher. EURUSD is back to pre-decision levels - though swung around in some crazy stop-seeking runs up and down. Bunds and TSYs are modestly higher in yield; Spainish and Italian bond yields are flat (so spreads are marginally lower). The biggest movers are Gold and Silver so far.


Pre-Karlsruhe: EUR 1.2870, Spain 10Y 5.677%, ES 1434, 10Y TSY 1.7100%, 10Y Bund 1.5700%, BE500 (Stocks) 187.13 (as the decision was made EURUSD cracked 60 pips lower and back up - perfectly normal algo stop-run)

Post-Decision : EUR 1.2875 (+5pips), Spain 10Y 5.70% (+3bps), ES 1436 (+2pts), 10Y TSY 1.732% (+2bps), 10Y Bund 1.614% (+4bps), BE500 (stocks) 187.7 (+.57)




and EURUSD...

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Yen Cross's picture

 The markets can't figure out what in the hell to do! Chickens running around with their heads chopped off!

giovanni_f's picture

The "markets" are selling the US$ (in case you didn't notice). US$s dead cat bounce appears to be over. EUR shorts - I am soooo sorry for you and your crowded, turned-sour, "EURO will vanish by 2010 no 2011 no 2012 no 2013 no ..." trade.

magpie's picture

Just short the Euro via Gold, Silver, AUD and CAD...problem solved.

Spitzer's picture

whatever it takes to get your euro hating rocks off...

closet dollar lover

magpie's picture

Tsk. Just being realistic.

Lovely Euro - if the dollar is becoming meaningless as a measure the Euro is becoming it too. Like i have said here before, might as well just peg it.

The shorting please in the order stated in post above.

Bobbyrib's picture

The EU only said they will print as much as it takes, we have not heard Bernanke's number yet. The Euro should be plummeting right now, but instead it is rising, because idiots who don't understand currency debasement think printing to maintain the currency is a good idea.

Uchtdorf's picture

Inflation is better than a crash. With inflation I might have to pay more for food, but at least I'm eating. With a crash, I might not eat...that's how those idiots are thinking!

Comay Mierda's picture

Here is how dire the US Dollar situation is

ECB about to print a fuckload of notes

yet EUR/USD higher

so the dollar is devaluing FASTER than the Euro

magpie's picture

Concluding that the Bernank not announcing QE 3 tomorrow will trash the Dollar even more...

magpie's picture

People use Japan as the standard counterxample, but it is an even less helpful comparison to the EU than to the USA. The EU has to deal with higher interest rates out of the gate, so has to print more.

adamas's picture

if they peg it the HFT boxes can't scalp humanity via pre-ordained (reuters controlled) back n forth volatility... THIEVING BASTARDS,  they should all fry in Dante's inferno

Bobbyrib's picture

I wouldn't buy AUD, or CAD to short the Euro. If those countries run into economic problems, what is to stop them from printing money?

magpie's picture

Nothing really. I put those behind the PMs, where else is the free EU cash going to flow ? US equities, maybe food. Oil seems to be capped in the moment.

Tirpitz's picture

Oil seems to get ready for a breakout to the upside. The chart looks quite bullish.

No wonder, considering the usurious race pushing the world towards another world war...

BigDuke6's picture

The AUD.

The current left wing government inherited a budget surplus and has pissed it all away.

The electorate know it and aren't happy.

Printing money would kill any party's re-election chances for 10 years due to the perceived shame.

Never say never but its unlikely.

With interest rates at about 3.5% there is room to move there.

Yen Cross's picture

 I don't trade the euro? I'm flat by the way. There is Italian and German bond auctions coming up in the next 30 minutes. Have a good day :-)

defencev's picture

Not so fast. My portfolio is going through the roof. But it is important to stay cool.

It is time to make real money. One should carefully to start loading on HK and SGD. I do not own Euro and do not plan to (talking about dead cat bouncing). It is safer to play through proxies like Swiss franc and Norwegian crona.

walidsassia's picture

the Key word is SO FAR , since these Guys just keep buying everything and anything and any news.


Pool Shark's picture



Actually, the biggest mover seems to be platinum: up over $30.00...



Anasteus's picture

Definitely, particularly, when considering continuing and perhaps progressing strikes in SA. This may soon happen to gold as well.

Tirpitz's picture

But gold ain't printed in South Africa...

GernB's picture

To the moon Alice.

Gief Gold Plox's picture

Even the gold move seems insignificant really. A few bucks. Now tomorrow,... that's gonna be a different story I think.

I am Jobe's picture

Buy more ICRAP and Waffle Irons? Sheeples are once again led to the slaughterhouse.


Holiday retail sales seen up 3.3 percent: ShopperTrak

GaryNeville's picture

This european soap opera is just getting boring now..

Are there any humans left in the market? It's like Terminator Judgement day - the machines have decided they no longer need us......!

Zero Govt's picture

why should the markets be impressed, they know we'll be here, political brats with their begging bowls, in short order again 

the Judges have bought time with money but resolved nothing 

Tirpitz's picture

What else would you have expected from some aging youngsters with barely any real word experience, let alone some spine to do the right thing come hell or high water?

I am Jobe's picture

LOL. Nice, I think I am gonna throw up my breakfast. Time for some whiskey

giovanni_f's picture

Perfect. Downright scaring with his obscene luciferian grin. Fancy dress helps hide his goat legs

Wakanda's picture

LLoyd looks faaaabulous in Kardinals of Karlsuhe red - and that impish grin!

Those robes are a perfecto match to the bloody river that his crew leaves where they operate.

What a cute brute!

What a scoundrel!

Don't we loooooove our monsters!

; >

schatzi's picture

He looks kinda familiar. Now where have I seen this shitbag before?

Colonel Klink's picture

Kill it!  Kill it with fire!!!

TIMBEEER's picture

HELP! .. Silver bullets, wooden sticks, anyone? Anyone? Holy water, Garlic .. you just can't kill thise things!

Zero Govt's picture

he'll actually kill himself if you don't bail him out

BigInJapan's picture

I have a question, WB7.

Why is it that you don't seem to rake Chinese leaders over the coals in the same way you do Western leaders?

You do live in China, right? You've got a front row seat.

Gandalf6900's picture

I don't need a high court to legalize the wrongdoings of fascist pigs, I need the people to open their fucking eyes...HUMANS WAKE THE FUCK UP, YOU ARE PATHETIC AND DESERVE THIS ASSRAPING!!!!

Dead Canary's picture

I give up. Humanity is lost. Somebody turn out the lights when they leave.

GernB's picture

This is one of the last stops that can be pulled. After Germany has had it's credit rating destroyed and it's people turned into debt slaves and Spain, Itally, Greece and now Germany can no longer afford their sovergn debts, then what will they do?

obessoligarch's picture

here is the answer this is what they should do.What about selling cheap to china?


evolutionx's picture

interest rates GER climbinng:

GernB's picture

What is the purpose of a constitutional court again... oh that's right, to make sure the can can be kicked a few more feet by throwing the lives of the German people into the machinery.

jmcadg's picture

Fantatic, the EU is saved, party time ... but with conditions .... PARTEEEEEEE ... German involvement  just €190billion  (needle scratch across the record) .... what €190 billion .... what about the €1.5 trilion they've already backstopped .... silence on the dancefloor ......................................................... ooops! ...... PAAAAARRRRRRTTTTTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE muppets.

Bobbyrib's picture

Is there actually a part of the German law that says you can only back 190B more Euros, or did the court make up that number?

ivars's picture

Fullfilment of the first part of this prediction has started:

Lets see what level the prices reach, snap back before FOMC ( which will be also PM positive)

new game's picture

G and S at key resist = 1750/34

what else matters?

who the fuck cares what they do in the end?

fuck em and position acordingly.

short, long or pm

I'll take PM and back to zzzzzzz

wake me up at 50+ on the phy silv...

new game's picture

190 B slide into world pot of fiat

bend over the spank benank

slide in 500b to mb securities

or combo of long dated 10's and 30's - mb

hey, he will own the market sooooon

only buyer soon enuf.

pm will price this madness accordingly.

china to up the ante and build cities and roads to empty cities

sure enuf.  peg to stay as all is fine in fiat wunderland.

BUT the pm spirts for a barameter of the madness as the minions go on to the appl store.

got that dial tuned to nfl, amerika's got talent freak show or your next idol...

the top spins until it doesnt.

stagflation at its best - the sheeple fucked again and they think(not) all is fine

OldPhart's picture

I'm a nobody.  I don't do markets, I only have a 401k.  I'm a thousandairre.

To me, what I'm expecting is a slingshot.  We're going to see a dip in the dollar as the fed loads it's slingshot sack full of QE.  Investors in Europe are going to be uncomfortable with the limit of the German exposure, at some point, and start flooding back into the US market.

Initially, the dollar droops lower than my 50+ pecker, then it gets a nice dose of buyagra and hikes the dollar upwards as the world frets over the German limit.  During that period gold and silver fall in price relative to the dollar and it is 'load the truck' time.

Somewhere in the midst of this, China and Russia refuse to accept dollars for any sort of transaction and agitate to go to a duo reserve currency.

We that bought start digging holes for our stash, and foxholes for everyone else we care about. 

I'm pretty sure we're fucked in this deal.