Guest Post: The Market Reminds Me Of High School
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
If the market always finds the pain trade, making an entire industry feel like they are back in high school, would have to be the mother of all pain trades.
It seems like there is a "cool" group that knows what to focus on. What is hot and trendy and important at any given moment. Some kids are left wondering why they were part of the cool group last year, but suddenly are sitting by themselves at the cafeteria (hedge funds down 10% or more on the year, know that feeling well). There are even a few new kids at the cool table - most noticeably, that weird kid who always talked about gold is suddenly popular.
You can certainly try and keep up with the cool kids. But unless you are getting whispered to by politicians and central bankers, all you are likely to do is spend money you don't have, on something you don't need and find out, that by the time you actually get "it", "it" won't be cool any more. Chasing momentum and the trend in this market has probably resulted in far more whiplash than profits.
You can try and be small and simple and hope nobody notices you. It might not be a glamorous life, but it got a lot of people through high school and is working reasonably well in this market. It has the benefit of leaving you fresh to shine once the awkward phase is done.
You could join the computer club and suffer through the indignity, knowing deep down, that it will pay off in the long run.
The drama club isn't a bad choice, a bit off-beat, but eventually you will be able to own an entire wardrobe of black clothes and will just be going out on a Thursday night as all the bankers crawl home.
You could try out for the lacrosse team, which pretty much guarantees you a job on wall street, so that you can be in high school forever.
There is so much going on in this market, it is incredibly hard to figure out, and trying to keep up on the latest trend is probably causing as much, if not more damage, than sticking to your original investments. The market takes less than 30 hours to move 5% (Thursday at 10am, til Friday at 4pm), and (Tuesday at 10:30am til Wednesday at 4pm).
I am going to keep an eye on Greece and European banks, and until I see any real solution in the works, I will remain bearish. It has been a decently consistent strategy since at least July. In the meantime maybe I will join the chess club.
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