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Guest Post: The Market Reminds Me Of High School

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

If the market always finds the pain trade, making an entire industry feel like they are back in high school, would have to be the mother of all pain trades.

It seems like there is a "cool" group that knows what to focus on.  What is hot and trendy and important at any given moment.  Some kids are left wondering why they were part of the cool group last year, but suddenly are sitting by themselves at the cafeteria (hedge funds down 10% or more on the year, know that feeling well).  There are even a few new kids at the cool table - most noticeably, that weird kid who always talked about gold is suddenly popular.

You can certainly try and keep up with the cool kids.  But unless you are getting whispered to by politicians and central bankers,  all you are likely to do is spend money you don't have, on something you don't need and find out, that by the time you actually get "it", "it" won't be cool any more.  Chasing momentum and the trend in this market has probably resulted in far more whiplash than profits.

You can try and be small and simple and hope nobody notices you.  It might not be a glamorous life, but it got a lot of people through high school and is working reasonably well in this market.  It has the benefit of leaving you fresh to shine once the awkward phase is done.

You could join the computer club and suffer through the indignity, knowing deep down, that it will pay off in the long run.

The drama club isn't a bad choice, a bit off-beat, but eventually you will be able to own an entire wardrobe of black clothes and will just be going out on a Thursday night as all the bankers crawl home.

You could try out for the lacrosse team, which pretty much guarantees you a job on wall street, so that you can be in high school forever.

There is so much going on in this market, it is incredibly hard to figure out, and trying to keep up on the latest trend is probably causing as much, if not more damage, than sticking to your original investments.  The market takes less than 30 hours to move 5%  (Thursday at 10am, til Friday at 4pm), and (Tuesday at 10:30am til Wednesday at 4pm).

I am going to keep an eye on Greece and European banks, and until I see any real solution in the works, I will remain bearish.  It has been a decently consistent strategy since at least July.  In the meantime maybe I will join the chess club. 

 

 

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Thu, 09/08/2011 - 11:59 | 1646431 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

yes "that weird kid".

gold going all the way to the moon, bitchez

http://azizonomics.com/2011/09/08/how-to-crash-the-price-of-gold/ 

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:17 | 1646506 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Simply sums it up pretty good.

Thanks for the link.

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:02 | 1646448 jdelano
jdelano's picture

The weird kid that always talked about gold would have to Paulson--but now I'm lost, cause thought he was already pretty cool when he started the gold trade?

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:06 | 1646464 oogs66
oogs66's picture

but he lost 40% in one fund?  not so cool

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 13:50 | 1646915 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

No. Definitely NOT Kablamo.

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:04 | 1646457 entendance
entendance's picture

CHRISOCHOIDES SAYS GREECE WON'T MEET 2011 DEFICIT TARGET.

http://www.entendance.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=762&p=19207#p19207

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:05 | 1646462 Rastadamus
Rastadamus's picture

FBI IS RIGHT NOW AT SOLYNDRA SEARCHCING THE PREMESIS IN FREMONT CALIFORNIA. THIS IS PROBABLY ALREADY PRICED IN.....

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:08 | 1646473 Sutton
Sutton's picture

(T)urd (F)erguson Market Advisors

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 13:05 | 1646695 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

As a gold fan for decades, I NEVER was considered "cool" at any point in my life.  That's OK though.

I now have a family, a business, no debt and gold.

I LIKE it: TF Market Advisers...

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:10 | 1646480 caerus
caerus's picture

so are you off to college in the fall?

ah you know i'm still not sure...i'm working right now, for the city... i'm thinking of holding on to the job for a while...it's like, you know money in my pocket...

i hear that...

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:10 | 1646483 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

THE MARKET keeps reminding me of bad sharts.

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:11 | 1646484 bam_son
bam_son's picture

Im sure the majority of readers can understand the comparisons in this article as most have likely been on the margin most of their lives. 

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:26 | 1646553 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

The Bible and my therapist have helped me get through the emotional issues.

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:30 | 1646565 bam_son
bam_son's picture

after going to catholic school pre-school through college, atheism has helped me through but we each have to find our own path

 

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 13:07 | 1646703 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yeah, like me.  But at 55 now, I don't have to be cool.

Fri, 09/09/2011 - 00:47 | 1649631 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

                             GETTING OLD

                      Baby Boomers '1960 VS 2011'

Then:   Long Hair
Now:    Longing for hair

Then:   The perfect high.
Now:    The perfect high yield mutual fund.

Then:   Keg.
Now:    EKG.

Then:   Acid Rock.
Now:    Acid Reflux.

Then:   Moving to California because it's cool.
Now:    Moving to California because it's warm.

Then:   Growing pot.
Now:    Growing pot belly.

Then:   Watching John Glenn's historic flight with your parents.
Now:    Watching John Glenn's historic flight with your children.

Then:   Trying to look like Marlon Brando or Elizabeth Taylor.
Now:    Trying NOT to look like Marlon Brando or Elizabeth Taylor.

Then:   Seeds and stems.
Now:    Roughage.

Then:   Popping pills, smoking joints.
Now:    Popping joints.

Then:   Our president's struggle with Fidel.
Now:    Our president's struggle with fidelity.

Then:   Paar (Jack?).
Now:    AARP.

Then:   Being caught with Hustler magazine.
Now:    Being caught with Hustler magazine.

Then:   Killer weed.
Now:    Weed killer.

Then:   Hoping for a BMW.
Now:    Hoping for a BM.

Then:   The Grateful Dead.
Now:    Dr. Kevorkian.

Then:   Getting out to a new, hip joint.
Now:    Getting a new hip joint.

Then:   Rolling Stones.
Now:    Kidney stones.

Then:   Being called into the principal's office.
Now:    Calling the principal's office.

Then:   Screw the system!
Now:    Upgrade the system.

Then:   Peace sign.
Now:    Mercedes logo.

Then:   Parents begging you to get your hair cut.
Now:    Children begging you to get their heads shaved.

Then:   Take acid.
Now:    Take antacid.

Then:   Passing the driver's test.
Now:    Passing the vision test.

Then:   "Whatever"
Now:    "Depends"

My how fun flies when you're having time! :>D

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:10 | 1646486 Rastadamus
Rastadamus's picture

The San Jose Mercury News is reporting that agents of the Federal Bureau of Investigation have raided the offices of Solyndra, the now bankrupt solar energy company that the Obama administration helped secure $500 million in federally-backed loans.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/now-the-fbi-is-raiding-obamas-favorite-solar-company-2011-9#ixzz1XNUKtH8W MARKET IS NOTHING LIKE HIGH SCHOOL FOR ME.... BABYLON IS BURNING, SMELL IT?
Fri, 09/09/2011 - 00:49 | 1649632 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Think Obamatron will pull a Nixon and appoint a special prosecutor for this?

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:15 | 1646499 hunglow
hunglow's picture

Cool!

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:17 | 1646509 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The US is all about groups, not individuality.

Naively, this article shows up as a nice token to it.

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:17 | 1646511 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Keiser Report: Market Schizophrenia (E181)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsgS9PsUf5U

Uploaded by on Sep 8, 2011

This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss the threatening downward spiral of all out war of bankers versus everyone else. In the second half of the show Max talks to Israeli economist, Shir Hever, about protests, apartheid and the warfare state.

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:22 | 1646523 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

1. Inside Obama's bank CEOs meeting - Eamon Javers - POLITICO.com

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/20871.html - CachedSimilar

Apr 3, 2009 – My administration is the only thing between you and the pitchforks...” ... who is standing between WE THE PEOPLE and your administration? ...

?

2. Obama to Bankers: I'm Standing 'Between You and the Pitchforks ...

blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2009/04/obama-to-banker.html - CachedSimilar

Apr 3, 2009 – "My administration is the only thing between you and the pitchforks," the ... Thanks, Mr. President for standing for the American people. Bamster ...

Wall Street Aristocracy Got $1.2 Trillion in Fed’s Secret Loans

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-21/wall-street-aristocracy-got-1-2-trillion-in-fed-s-secret-loans.html

PLUS!!!

SEC Covering Up Wall Street Crimes?

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/is-the-sec-covering-up-wall-street-crimes-20110817

Plus!!!

How about the $2.5 Trillion in Social Security Surplus Monies LOANED OUT??

http://moneywatch.bnet.com/retirement-planning/video/good-news-on-social-security/478373/

 

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:18 | 1646514 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

because that kid knew a few things,

like PMs are the hedge against TURMOIL.

and judging by the foodfight in cafeteria....

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:19 | 1646516 knukles
knukles's picture

Pure empathy....
The "Guns and Butter" trade... barbell of Bonds and Gold.
Been told batshit crazy, conspiracist, whathefuckever for Years!.
Now folks are asking me "Who can we trust?"
Talk about creeping paranoia.
LOL
Welcome to the "New World Order"

When they now ask; "What should I do?" my only response is; "Do what you need to in order to sleep well at night."

AKA:  It's not quite too late, dude.......

I still haven't the heart to tell regular folk that the Event Horizon has been Breached, the Nash Equilibrium Broken...  That it's not "When TSHTF", but is "Already In Process"
Folks are looking for Serious Confirmation Bias Reinforcement

Paranioa....
Just 'cause you are don't mean it's not real.

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:27 | 1646554 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

a real smart girl said these words the other day and they have stuck with me..

who's your farmer? _________________________

who's your banker? _________________________

where's your money? _______________________

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Sti1xMOYj0

she warned of the housing problems.. she was the head of Department of Housing under Bush.

Fitts served as managing director and member of the board of directors of the Wall Street investment bank Dillon, Read & Co. Inc., as Assistant Secretary of Housing and Federal Housing[1] Commissioner at the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development in the first Bush Administration, and was the president of Hamilton Securities Group, Inc., an investment bank and financial software developer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Austin_Fitts

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 13:09 | 1646716 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ knukles,

+ $1840 and green

I don't even tell them anymore.  They heard me before, it's up to them.

Paranoia, bitchez!

Event Horizon Breached, bitchez!

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:23 | 1646532 Pinktip
Pinktip's picture

Sorry for OT, I need some advice.....meeting with Bank tomorrow in regards to purchasing house next door.  We knew the owner like a member of the family, she passed and was left to her son.  He is offering it to us for $200K and it is easily $300.  15 ajoining acres and we are raising cattle on side.

We owe $80K on our current mortgage.

Have $136K pre tax in CD, liquidate and ~$65K

Combined Salary $160K, no other debt, $15K cash, $10K PM.

Ideally, cash out CD, pay of existing, "own" current home, take $200K mort on 2nd and  and rent it.

Won't have a DP, but mortage is ~30% under value.

Or refi combo $280K  (don't want to, but option)

Please advise OH great ZH blog.  Thanks!

 

Here's a reply with ammendment to questions from previous thread

Thanks Smiddywesson!

The house is a good deal that has presented itself at an especially bad time in history.  It is a gamble.  I'm not a gambler and would put it all on PMs (which is exactly what I did).  However, you left out important information. 

What is the rental situation in your area?  How much can you rent it for and are similar rental properties remaining empty? It's a 1976 4 bedroom, $2500sqft raised ranch , new siding, roof, windows, boiler attached 2car garage, hardwood floors.  Assuming ~ >$1000/month

Is the job market in your area dependent upon one or two big companies, and if so, how are they doing? Albany/Saratoga Area  upstate NY.

Has your area already taken a huge hit in real estate, thereby making an argument why you won't get hit as bad by the next wave of recession/housing collapse?  I would say less change than 80% of country

Will the owner of the property consider a rent to own?  In that case, it takes a lot of risk off your shoulders.  He obviously won't worry you will trash the place.He lives 3rhs away ion Long Island, wans it off his plate.

Will he sell you the excess acreage and not the house?  It sounds like that is a big motivation for the purchase.  Acreage is main reason,  Could flip house.

How secure are your jobs and your health?  Those answers can change everything. Both mid 40's no issues, relatively secure jobs (engineer's)But nothing is 100%, that's why owning current house outright is priority

Thanks for your Help!

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:34 | 1646583 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

"Have $136K pre tax in CD, liquidate and ~$65K" why not get a loan against the CD instead of taking on the tax liabilities?

you are missing numbers for someone to be able to put together a plan of action..

 

You owe _______________? in total.

You owe _______________? on the house.

You owe _______________? on a 2nd? piece of property?

You have "X" amount of whatever that has value.. Gold, Cash on Hand, Equity in Property(s)

1. ____________________

2. ____________________

3. ____________________

4. ____________________

5. ____________________

 

start there and I will do my best to provide you with good information that is sourced and sited so that you can read and decide yourself.. as well maybe some other ideas that I dont agree with but I will once again source and site the info so you can be informed as opposed to in the dark to what the details are all about.

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:52 | 1646652 Pinktip
Pinktip's picture

"Have $136K pre tax in CD, liquidate and ~$65K" why not get a loan against the CD instead of taking on the tax liabilities?

you are missing numbers for someone to be able to put together a plan of action..

 

You owe __________83K_____? in total.

You owe _________83K______? on the house.

You owe _________None______? on a 2nd? piece of property?

You have "X" amount of whatever that has value.. Gold, Cash on Hand, Equity in Property(s)

1. _____136K CD_______________

2. ______15K Cash______________

3. _____10K PM_______________

4. ____________________

5. ____________________

 

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 13:28 | 1646776 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the most important factors may be your age, your health, and how you are insured for life and health, and the make-up of your family in these respects

why do you "own" a pre-tax CD?  are the reasons valid, and if so, why sell out now?

if you borrow the "money" on your CD, you will pay it back post-tax.  ouch.

this is pretty complex, and this is what CPA's are for.  i always do my own taxes, but i also know several CPA's and use them for planning/designing ventures and to do tax planningnot "certified financial planners",  certified public accountants.

i would advise you the talk to your own banker about who would be the best CPA in town for you and then get two other opinions, maybe from your doctor, and from another cattle producer.  you will need to make an appointment for the one you choose and pay him/her the hourly fee for advice on how to set this up.  maybe even talk to two CPA's, to see  what the second says after you are a bit more up-to-speed from the first, then go back to the first if you have any "questions" from the second

don't be in a hurry to make a mistake; if you keep the new property as a separate business, you might have the best tax advantages

get the escrow open with a deposit and tell your banker you need some expert advice to find the best path, here, for yourself and your peeps

also, you can use a title company which your bank works with, and maybe keep realtors outa the deal

after your banker helps you set this up shop his deal and confront him if he isn't giving you the best deal by more than a few thou$.  see how badly he wants you in his/her bank

good luck!

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 14:31 | 1647101 Pinktip
Pinktip's picture

Thanks Slewie!

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 15:22 | 1647268 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

ur most welcome, Pinktipped zeroHead! 

one more thingy, which i'm sure you already know, do NOT talk abt this deal!  until it is closed.  loose lips sink ships, and even with an accepted Purchase Agreement and an earnest-money deposit, daddy warbucks can and will take you out if he can get to the young (?) man who is selling

banker, CPA, title company (see the poss downside there?), they all need to be told , every time you transact w/ them, to keep their mouths shut.  if you have any RE experience or even if the seller doesn't own the piece outright, you may not need a title company to start, just a standard Purchase Offer and Acceptance form and a cancelled check, and you have legal contract.  but you will still want to search the title for any encumbrances/easements/liens/boundary disputes which the seller may not know of if he just inherited it as "surviving joint tenant";  so be careful, there may be a reason he is selling low

for example, in CA if a person is on state medicaid and dies, the 'estate' owes the money(all of it) to CA  [if you're poor you can get medical tratment, but when you die, the old mobile home belongs to the state].  so make sure all the bills have been paid;  if they haven't been, there may be a judgment coming down the pipe against the property, which the seller will hafta pay at closing.  anything that can go wrong will go wrong.  shit, man! you're a rancher!  you wrote that line, i'll betcha!  L0L!!!

again, best of luck and prosperity to you & yours!

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:26 | 1646548 Stuppy
Stuppy's picture

You might not be cool, but at least people will be nice to you if you are serving them their food.

I personally like the three golds. Gold, Poorman's Gold, and the Golden Arches

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 12:27 | 1646555 hunglow
hunglow's picture

I don't mean to be an ass, but I ass-ume everybody here is cool.

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 13:00 | 1646675 TheLooza
TheLooza's picture

I'll be the guy that walks around with a boner all day long.

 

Wait, I'm that guy already.

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 13:01 | 1646680 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

An empty bottle of tequila may have brought clarity to all this but the benefits are transitory.

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 13:51 | 1646921 ItsDanger
ItsDanger's picture

Small hedge fund shops that I deal with are having great returns.  I think these big funds move too slow and have gotten complacent in their strategies. 

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 14:08 | 1647003 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

I loved high school...

best 7 years of my life.

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