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Market Response To Schrodinger Spain

Tyler Durden's picture





 

We are saved. No, we are doomed. The reaction to the much-heralded agreement to bailout Spain's banks is not good. Spanish bond yields are at their post-Euro highs at 7.21%, Spanish bond spreads (and 5Y CDS) are trading at 600bps as Valencia calls for its bailout, Montoro denies, then admits that indeed they are part of the fiasco. Spain's front-end is very weak with 3Y back over 6% with the entire curve at its flattest in 6 months. Italy is also cracking wider with the short-end getting crushed (2Y +42bps at 3.9%) - exactly where all that LTRO collateral is being held (more ECB margin calls?). While Italy's has reverted back to a zero basis to CDS, Spain has continued to see its bonds underperform CDS dramatically - which in the case of Greece and Portugal was the litmus test for a market switchijng from muddle-through to pending PSI as trust in CDS triggers reduces. Meanwhile, Germany's 2Y rate hits a record low below -6bps. Spain's IBEX is down almost 4% (but Italy's MIB worse) as EURUSD cracks below 1.22 once again. European financial credit (senior and sub) are getting cruyshed and it appears that broadly speaking equitieas are starting to catch up to the reality in credit markets - though have a long way to go. S&P 500 e-mini futures are down ove 9 pts from the close (and over 15pts from yesterday's highs). Europe's VIX is snapping 10% higher after capitulating al la US VIX but remains dramatically rich to crediot still.

Full Statement by the Eurogroup

Ministers unanimously agreed today to grant financial assistance for the recapitalisation of financial institutions in response to the Spanish authorities' request on 25 June 2012. Ministers concur with the assessment of the Commission, in liaison with the ECB, the EBA and the IMF, that providing a loan to Spain for the purpose of the recapitalisation of financial institutions is warranted to safeguard financial stability in the euro area as a whole. The Eurogroup agreed that the Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (F.R.O.B.), acting as agent of the Spanish government, will receive the funds and channel them to the financial institutions concerned. The Spanish government will retain the full responsibility of the financial assistance.

 

The financial assistance will be accompanied by policy conditionality focussing on the financial sector. This conditionality consists of bank-specific measures, including indepth bank restructuring plans in line with EU State aid rules and sector-wide structural reforms that embrace segregation of bank's problematic assets, and the governance, regulation and supervision of the banking sector. This conditionality will be enshrined in a Memorandum of Understanding that will be signed in the coming days.

 

The Eurogroup is confident that Spain will honour its commitments under the Excessive Deficit Procedure and with regard to structural reforms, with a view to correcting any macroeconomic imbalances as identified within the framework of the European semester. Progress in these areas will be closely and regularly reviewed in parallel with the financial sector conditionality.

 

The financial assistance will be provided by the EFSF until the ESM becomes available, then it will be transferred to the ESM, without gaining seniority status. It will cover financing needs of up to EUR 100 billion. As required by EFSF/ESM procedures, the specific amount will be determined based on a thorough bottom-up assessment of capital needs for individual banks, which has been launched and is expected to be finalised in September.

 

The loans to be used for bank recapitalisation will have an average maturity of up to 12.5 years, with any individual disbursement having a maximum maturity of up to 15 years. The EFSF will set aside EUR 30 billion at the start of the financial assistance, which can be used in case of urgent unexpected financing needs.

 

The Eurogroup is convinced that the reforms attached to this financial agreement will contribute to ensuring a return of all parts of the Spanish banking sector to soundness and stability.

European sovereign spreads...

which leaves Spain at Euro-era record high yields...

and European financials credit is having its hope crushed out of it - while stocks (blue) remain ever hopeful...

 

and Europe's VIX is 10% higher today but remains notably more sanguine than credit for now...

Chart: Bloomberg

 


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Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:35 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

bullish

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:39 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

But their exports are booming

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:41 | Link to Comment Martin W
Martin W's picture

Is this the end?

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

Unfortunately, no.

They will have a new finmin summit, and they will eat a bunch of shrimp, caviare and whatnot. There will be a press conference where everyone and their mother will reassure us that bold, decisive, unprecedented, *awe-inspiring*, historical steps have (this time around) been made, the markets will rally coz their's a news-scanning algo to be fooled every 5 nanoseconds and The Can will be kicked down the road. This crap will go on for years, I'm afraid.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

BAd news in terms of terms of loan. Terms were supposed to be 30 year maturities with 2.5% coupon and 10 year grace period. What happened? :0)

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

They just saved the "banks"...but now they lost a State...lol

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

If Spain is so in danger of imminent economic collapse why are their bond rates only 7%?  Why not 90%?

 

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment bluestone
bluestone's picture

Wait 5 minutes.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment genr8n
genr8n's picture

not yet ...not yet ... wait until after 1 August

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment Undecided
Undecided's picture

HVU.to closed at 1.82, bids pre-market over $8 looks like its going to be an interesting day!

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

zirp has made 7% sound like usury.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

US BANKS: EXPOSURE TO PIIGS IN WHOLE TRANCHES

 

BAC = 50.000 MN$

C = 70.000 Mn $

MS = 30.000 Mn $

JPM = 34.000 Mn $

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

But one must assume more via swaps, CDS and other derivatives. If those still count, that is.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment mark7
mark7's picture

Italy was baked in blistering 12-4 percent interest rate in the early 90's and with same 120 percent debt to GDP ratio. So seven percent for Italy and Spain is high but not necessarily too high.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment sockratte
sockratte's picture

it is. consider inflation then and now and additionally the currency union...

i wonder why italys hy stick at 6.1%, should also got to 7% imho.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment elwu
elwu's picture

"which can be used in case of urgent unexpected financing needs"

Isn't the whole thing about expected financing needs?

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment timbo_em
timbo_em's picture

I gotta have more cowbell...I mean we need another summit to once more produce some headlines that fix things for a day or two.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Pain is not Greece.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment bluestone
bluestone's picture

So Spain bites the dust.  No one can bring himself to utter the words at the moment, but Spanish yields and spreads are announcing it from the housetops.  Soon all will have to concede.  The devil will then leave Spain and go immediately to Italy, France and Germany, and in short order do to them what he did to Spain.  Germany, join Finland and get out of the tornado's path while you still can.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 09:22 | Link to Comment allbetsoff
allbetsoff's picture

If we (Spain) leave the euro there will be a huge devaluation with the peseta if we stay in the euro there will be a massive ctrl p and devalutaion of the euro.  Don´t think there is any other option,    Both scenarios will be good for exports and job growth.  Also either way, the banks are toast..  In the end, justice may just prevail..

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