Market Snapshot: Dow Jones Soars 400 Points On European Rescue Plan #42

Tyler Durden's picture

UPDATE: Moody's ITA downgrade took some shine off as EUR drops 60 pips and ES now 13pts off its highs. TSYs are 3-4bps lower in yields. Gold/Silver not moving much on it.

On the basis of old news, more promises, lack of any clarity, and Dexia's dump on the Belgian government, the equity markets staged a 4% rally in the last 45 minutes to end an incredible day. Our assumption is that this was simply the bounce that everyone expected as we seemed to have squeezed shorts into lunch and were limping back lower on AAPL disappointment. Quite clearly, there were a few uncomfortable equity shorts who were squeezed out rapidly and incessantly as the S&P massively outperformed credit as well as the broad basket of risk assets - even TSYs only managed to sell back to earlier day's high yields (as opposed to extending). Gold/Silver rallied (though well off week highs) as the USD dumped back near the week's lows and copper and oil rallied but again no where near as ebullient as stocks. Evidently, the equity move is exuberant at best but these squeezes seem able to maintain longer than anyone expects.

The clearest example of the exaggerated move in equities is probably against the broad-basket of risk assets known as CONTEXT which tracked very well all day but was simply unable to keep up with the covering in ES as we rallied. While it does not mean equities are absolutely expensive, it does imply there is a disconnect between risk appetites relatively speaking and would suggest equity weakness short-term (from our experience).

We had noted all day that credit was underperforming - and more noticeably that single-name credit was underperforming indices - suggesting forced long covering or horizon changes (from short to long) in macro to micro hedging. The indices in general did not initially follow ES but as the rally took hold they started to catch up (understandably so) but significantly underperformed ES as we closed.

AAPL was the story of the middle of the day as it failed to provide an iPhone 5 (all-singing-all-dancing awesomeness) and fell more than 5% at one point (testing its 200DMA) before ripping back higher to its VWAP and then a little more to close down around 0.6%. Once again - we have run out of adjectives to describe that kind of move in that market cap but whatever helped the market certainly saved a few hedge fund's years today!!

Sectorally, it is more what we would expect from a bounce day - the heavily shorted and prime-for-a-short-squeeze financials ripped almost 6.5% higher in that last 45 minutes. Amazingly, MS is now +3.25% from Friday's close, rallying 14.5% in the last 45 minutes with Goldman and Wells Fargo also making into the green on the week. In CDS land, MS opened 645/665 and closed 555/575 (still a little wider on close) in 5Y but 1Y remains 780/850 and was active today - moves in other financials were similar in style to MS (glide rally, jump wider early afternoon, then gap tighter into close) but lesser magnitude.

Enough of the superlatives...TSYs did not get quite as excited. 30Y did manage a 11bps rise in yields from today's low yields but was only just above the earlier high yields - significantly off the levels of yesterday still (as equities test them).

There was modest underperformance in the 5-7Y TSY bucket and that fits with the heaviest net-buying in corporate bond land today seen in the 3-7 and 7-12Y buckets respectively. For some perspective on the moves in the indices relative to single-names today IG was 0.5bps tighter while its fair-value widened 7.5bps (massively cheap to the index now) and HY managed a 1bps compression on the day (as opposed to 48bps decompression in intrinsics) but we do note that short-dated HY was wider all day. Just for further perspective the equity move today is equivlent to 37bps more compression in HY and 5.5bps compression in IG - another point of evidence that the rally was overdone (but that's optically clear we assume).

FX saw the USD dump as AUD ripped higher as did every other major (apart from JPY) as carry FX took off - it was initially delayed in its response but once we got going in ES it didn't take long to rip.

Precious metals and commodities all managed to rally back as the dollar lost ground with oil finding the day's highs but copper, gold, and silver all stayed well of the earlier day's highs. Silver clung to $30 at the close as oil peaked over $78.

All-in-all - an unbelievable last 45 minutes to what was making sense as a day so far with Bernanke's perspective early on. While we would prefer to fade this equity strength, we would suggest a half/third unit size as these squeezes can extend incredibly - though that seemed to be what we saw today - especially in the banks.

Late Update - by request our short-squeeze indicator shows two moments today that were good setups for notable potential squeezes - as the Goldman Short-Interest index hugely underperformed (which is good for shorts) and then greatly outperformed (squeezed) as the rallies came on...obviously not foolproof but nevertheless useful for some context.

Charts: Bloomberg

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Ruffcut's picture

Glad, I'm out for at least a few days. Sold at peak vix on options. I've seen this shit before.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me again, I AIN'T GONNA BE FOOLED AGAIN, BITCHES.

tekhneek's picture

I thought you were going to go bushly on me for a second, but you pulled it out with a nice bitches at the end there.

Congrats on your VIX exit.

LetThemEatRand's picture

Bush said "bitches" after every sentence he spoke.  But he said it silently to himself.  

pazmaker's picture

This is getting beyond any comprehension... total madness.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

nah. tyler called this weeks ago~~~the volatility and called:  "buy cheap straddles"!  which i, as an  old [but no longer] options guy figure = buy calls when the market is sold down, buy puts when rallies start getting pooped

pretty aresome, really;  fade the bullies;  these are nice swings for this,  and spreading & hedging is permitted 

Godisanhftbot's picture

 You know what.

 This choreographed nonsense fails to impress me at this point.


 It's a giant  Wheel Of Fortune being spun by an old hag in a sequined dress.

Joeman34's picture

Hillary Clinton [now try to get that image out of your head]

Axenolith's picture

Holy crap, does she have an appointment to conquor a make believe kingdom after that get together?!?!

slewie the pi-rat's picture

i'll just take tina turner on the Big Wheel

& purple sequinz, BiCheZ!

Dre4dwolf's picture

and when the rescue plan fails as its designed to, the market will fall 800 points.


Nothing to see here, same old same old.... haven't we been down this road about 6 or 7 times already?



mynhair's picture

Too violent by half was that 'rally'.  Hope the hedgies took advantage.

D.O.D.'s picture

one more bounce, suck in the last of the bulls who haven't lost enough money... come to papa... Meat's back on the menu BOIZ!

mynhair's picture

One more bounce works for me; still have some dead money to unload (GOV).

vast-dom's picture


ptoemmes's picture

And the CNBC WEBsite market recap headline is...Stocks Rebound Sharply on EU Bank Aid Plan


Plan, did they say PLAN!   There's no stinking plan (or badges - best I could find)....

NotApplicable's picture

There's a plan, all right. Dueling press releases.

Belarus's picture

BTW, I just have to ask this rhetorical question since no one else has: WHY DOESN'T GOLD EVER GET THE PARABOLIC MARKET ALGO-DRIVEN RAMP?

If this market rally was real, Gold would have soared. Let's see, Europe is going to recap their banks with money they don't have by taking on board toxic assets on balance sheets that are toxic themselves on the heels of European taxpayers that are in a depression.....

You get the point. It all makes sense. Right?

theotheri's picture

Gold will not soar.   It is a barbaric relic that has no value beyond jewlery. Get used to its downward drop back to its industrial value.

walküre's picture

Silver bounced quickly. Gold is lagging but could potentially go back to $1700 ish end of the week. How come it hit $1679 overnight last night?

disabledvet's picture

Right up there with "how can gold be worth more than platinum" I imagine.

BadKiTTy's picture

F'ing ha!
Those who understand need no explanation
For those who don't....... No explanation can be given

We are all saved I tell you .......SAVED! /sarc

All I can to is laugh


mynhair's picture

Hope coughing up that hairball didn't hurt, sounded painful.

BadKiTTy's picture

Kool!! Thanks for making me laugh! :)

walküre's picture

What was the buying volume in the last 30 minutes?

Selling pressure remained higher. Markets were oversold, bounce was due.

World is not ending today, DEXIA is not Lehman. DEXIA didn't go tits up. Lehman could have been saved in 2008 (which many experts suggested at the time) and markets would not have tanked the way they did in 2008 and 2009.

Next few days will tell what is going on. MS up 12% because MS is not gonna go bust on the Greek derivative trade?

So many possibilities, so little time to discuss it all. Just remember who is controlling the "market" and that the "market" is absolutely no reflection of the real economy.

NotApplicable's picture

Now, why would something be saved, when it was murdered for a reason? As for the next few days giving a tell, well, they will be every bit as fictional as the last few, so other than the next storyline emerging (with a few double/triple/quadruple head fakes), I wouldn't put much faith in them.

SilverDOG's picture

DEXIA is a  MSM distraction. Away from BoA being Lehman. 

Synthetic Derivatives Bitchez!

disabledvet's picture

QE Europe. That would be for the entire Continent--except for those "little countries" of course. Hehehehehe. "Little Countries" they come any other way?

buzzsaw99's picture

the move seemed mechanized, coordinated, yes, almost not human at all.

Atlantis Consigliore's picture

HFT hft hft hft, HFT,  ppt ppt ppt ppt, 


crack that whip...  LIMIT UP LIMIT DOWN round and round

sob sob sob sob,  mkts open and fair and orderly,  


rule 442, 332, 112,  plunge protect 45 min soar, 


ha ha ha hahh,  shish boom bah.


investors sell 70 B  hide out,    no fairth in the PONXI

CvlDobd's picture

What about this STL bank of america thing? That has my interest. How valid is the youtube video and random articles?

heatbarrier's picture

Hate to be a pinhead, Tyler, but I think it's plan #41.  

NotApplicable's picture

Oh, you people and your zero-based indexes!

dcb's picture

like the post, but zh can be a bit schizophrenic. complain about the algo momo chasers not trading on data, then say the jump is from the euro rescue rumor. nonsense. it's because if you do the charts on a weekly we were due for a rally.

also please use the hourly macd indicator as to where the short squeeze is going to happen or end. rather good with the wilders rsi

Mr.Sono's picture

looks like everything will be ok. tiss tiss

I just got more silver bitches, let them roll in those paper stocks and money. let them have more and more paper. We all know there is plenty of trees.

Mohan's picture


I consider myself a seasoned investor who always questioned the official lines (read spin). For more than 15 years, I participated on many blogs/bulletin boards. I learned a lot from them. But it is nothing like what I learned from ZH. I've been reading ZH for 2 years. I cannot express in words how much your site has helped me in trading better or gaining wisdom. I believe that Zh is a site that the establishment wishes that goes away.

I have one thing to say to you: Thank you for your selfless service!


pacdm's picture

Should the SEC look into this shit or is it just the new normal bullshit market , if this is the new normal then i hope the mother fu.....

do not get any bailout when the sky falls down


walküre's picture

The SEC is their firewall to protect the ponzi and the fraud. SEC will only interfere when they have a vested interest in pursuing something.

Grinder74's picture

Or when the midget looks really good in that leather outfit.

the grateful unemployed's picture

this smells like a typical liquidity injection. everything goes up, including crude oil, (the all in one market is back). no point in parsing sectors, it was "all in" this PM, and in last half hour, which is when orders for tomorrows double and triple leveraged index ETFs have to be placed. now you and I know that having information like that ahead of time in no way implies that someone would share it, or steal it and therefore frontrun tomorrows moves, today??

and to make it all smell a bit worse, the FOMC cheat (chief) spoke earlier, and may have decided to light up the APPLAUSE sign. his gangster boss is in danger of losing the racket, and so there is great pressure to produce a bottom in this market, and get the whores and pimps working, so they can "tax" their efforts.

sigh, a cop costs a lot more now than it did in Al Capones day, about 4.6 million to be exact. all this inspires confidence, doesn't it. by the way there's a great new article over at Agora Finanicial on the cost of the SECRET government, a brief sketch of how it has grown, and a few stock picks for those who want to get rich on the new security state, for subscribers of course. I would provide a link, but the Feds watch those things.

Lord Welligton's picture

Trichet raises the worst of all prospects and ZH has not one headline?

Motley Fool's picture

9th August? I suspect this has been covered a bit earlier than today.

NotApplicable's picture

Next up, Waterloo highlights. ;-)

andybev01's picture

I've been hearing a lot about the tulip market.

what's up with that?

Big Ben's picture

180B euros is a lot of money for just one bank. GDP of France+Belgium is less than 20% of US GDP. So scaling this up by 5 times 1.32 $/euro, means this would be equivalent to a $1.2T bailout if done by the US. For just one bank. And France has its own problem banks.

This looks like a desperate move by France to try to forestall a run on its own banks. And even if France is willing and able to bail out its own banks, who is going to bail out southern Europe?

Germany is the key. The pressure on Germany to "step up and do the wrong thing" will increase greatly. Will they cave?