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Market Snapshot: Equities Up (Led by Financials) But Well Ahead Of Credit

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A funny thing happened right after the 'successful' EFSF vote in Germany, equity-credit-and-EUR sold off in sync, but this moment of sanity amid the chaos that is the European corporate capital structure did not last as soon after reaching swing lows, European equities surged dramatically ahead of credit markets only to pull back into the US open and stabilize. On a medium-term basis, stocks remain significantly expensive relative to credit expectations but with such a binary outcome (depression or safe-union) the smallest swing in the odds of one or the other tips risk assets rapidly in that direction (as opposed to discounting over a broader set of scenarios).

 

Strength in credit into the close is a little misleading - not wanting to pour too much cold water on what was a great day for long-only equity strategists - since the indices (following their roll in credit derivative land last week) have traded very significantly wide of fair-value (the price at which the index would trade if one created it from the underlying names in the portfolio) and today saw a huge compression in the difference between the index and its fair-value (the skew). Point being, while the indices appeared all bright and bubbly with 2.5bps compression in Main and 8.75bps compression in XOver, a significant amount of that is 'technical' in nature as professionals bought protection on underlying names (which notably underperformed the indices) while selling protection on the index.


Just to add some more complexity to your day, a lot is also being made of the strength in US financials (moreso bonds than stocks) with XLF holding in at +2.6% while Discretionaries and Materials have tested red today. A few things are worth noting: 1) its month- and quarter-end which suggests managers want to show some exposure to these names heading into Q4, 2) given their underperformance, rebalancing any 'balanced' long-only index-mimicking portfolio will require rotation into financials even if you think they stink, and 3) CDS and bonds are not in agreement on today's action (especially in the big financials).

Point 3 is perhaps the most interesting (and less well known). CDS and bonds necessarily have to maintain some semblance of relationship (via an arbitrage framework) even though very different technicals (supply/demand/flow) may impact one or the other. When the two markets disconnect enough - e.g. bonds become very cheap relative to CDS or vice versa - then hedge funds (and dealers) will step in and scoop up the difference in what is called a basis trade (buying bonds AND buying CDS protection to narrow the difference relatively risk free). Today we see heavy net buying of financial bonds (which we are sure is helping exaggerate financial stock performance as much as it is) but we note that dealer-to-dealer activity is high and, more importantly, CDS on the majors are leaking wider and wider since the open. This implies bonds are being bought and hedged via CDS and so while all looks rosy when we look at the TRACE flows and see huge net buying in financials' bonds, only when we combine that with CDS spread movements to we get a clearer picture that reality may not be quite as exciting. Math lesson over for today!

FX markets have oscillated all week with a general lower USD bias with today's movement dominated by early strength in the EUR followed by a slow and gentle bleed lower as the day wore on into the European close. EUR keeps bumping against the 1.675 area and pulling back while JPY ebbs lower (vs USD) and Cable (GBP) flows higher.

The small oscillations in the USD are nothing to the waves being seen intraday in precious metals and commodities as once again today we see copper, oil, and silver all move in 5-6% ranges and the more sedate gold in 2% ranges. For now copper has decoupled from oil and found a new friend in silver and gold as only oil is higher on the week (despite USD weakness).

TSYs are mixed today with 30Y yields modestly lower and short-dated yields higher though there is very much a butterfly style to the movement with 5Y notably underperforming the rest of the curve - an almost perfect mirror image of what corporate bonds are doing with the belly being more aggressively net bought than the tails.

All-in-all, optically markets look relieved and happy and as Pisani would say Risk-is-on, but under the covers, ES sits at VWAP (balanced) and we suspect technicals and window-dressing are strongly supportive for now (as opposed to risk appetite - we'll watch new issue concessions for that). Relative to a broad basket of risk assets, ES had sold off too far overnight and this morning pulled back to be more in line.

 

UPDATE: well that upset the apple-cart as darling of the carry currencies - NZD - gets downgraded - shifting FX carry and thus risk assets in general down with it.


 

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Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:45 | 1722349 Jason T
Jason T's picture

OT: it seems Martinarmstrong.org is suspended page.. 


Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:49 | 1722364 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Euro getting smoked.

All hail to the mighty, mighty, U.S. Dollar

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:52 | 1722379 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

USD also relatively weak, fuknut.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:57 | 1722412 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

in the euro-bong?

the dollar is awsome, RT!  where tf's my flag?

 

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:59 | 1722415 adr
adr's picture

MMMMMMMMMMMMM Burritos and the Yoga pants you need to fit your gut are doing really well today.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:50 | 1722370 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

PM's and commodities swing today in whats now considered 'fairly stable range' of 'only' 6% or so....LOL anyone remember the 'good old days' of 3 years ago when golds normal daily trading range was .5 cents?

Total insanity!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:52 | 1722383 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Yep, it's getting difficult to tell what the actual dip is -- 10 times a day.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:58 | 1722413 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well I dont know what everyone thinks of Lindsey Williams, but I look at all this and remember back to his last big interview at the beginning of the year saying when you see daily 3% moves in equities as the norm and PM dropping up to 50% and gyrating around in wild swings, youll know the time when it all collapses will be very near then, and it will happen on an upswing and 'good news'.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:05 | 1722433 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Damn right, just like an earthquake - "look, nice oscillation!"

 

On a sidenote: mooooore rumors Germany wlll go back Reichsmark - this weekend (yes, again :D ). Where can I feed that to the HFT-Algos? =)

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:52 | 1722378 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

binary, BiCheZ!!!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:57 | 1722409 adr
adr's picture

Once again the market makes no sense. The Nasdaq went cliff diving with the S&P but the S&P brought along a bungee. Somehow the DOW was pretty much spared and still up a little over 1%.

Momo stocks like Priceline, Lulu, and Chipotle are getting killed but Linked is somehow going up. Hedgies taking profits? Although the Nasdaq may just take a 4% upturn just like a few days ago. You really can't tell when a rumor will break out.

Of course saying the economy grew a little faster than we last thought, but the same as we first thought, but in different ways than we last thought and in completely different ways from what we first thought, is somehow good for a nice jump in oil. Because we all know that previous growth is very bullish for future growth.

Somehow banks offloading bad debt to governments that can't afford the debt so the same banks can may risky new bets destined to go bad is very bullish for everyone. Even though the governments still haven't figured out how to buy the bad debt from the banks and they might not be able to anyway, still just the thought of being able to get rid of your debt and issue new debt is good enough, right?

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:10 | 1722457 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

#awful

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:12 | 1722478 ivars
ivars's picture

Since there has been some requests, I have made a comparison charts between my longer term silver and gold prediction charts and actual prices for correspondingly periods of March 13th-September 29th for silver, and May 4th-September 29th for Gold with explanations here:

Silver prediction chart and reality comparison -new chart

And here:

Gold prediction chart and reality comparison-new chart

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:56 | 1722637 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Wooo, sound the alarms - CONTAGION. It took a sovereign downgrade of a Pacific country to get the EUR back under 1.36. :) Everyone pile into that NZD short, most retail traders are (were) long, massive stops ahead! Yarr

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:19 | 1722855 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

Time for CNBC clown to come up with another rumor of unicorns taking over Europe. Something needs to be done to pump the market, which is falling fast now.

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