Market Snapshot as Europe Implodes

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite some better-than-expected macro data overnight (admittedly marginal), investors continue to retreat from any European exposure as sovereign stress leads to financial stress and drags non-financials into an austerity-driven slowdown. The snaps wider in credit markets are very reminiscent of crises past when being hedged at any cost was more important than any short-term trade opportunity.

It appears we are entering an endgame of sorts and with the vitriol from Merkel (isn't considering possibility of Euro Breakup), Draghi (don't 'expect' bond purchases forever), Schaeuble (Tobin Tax is warranted, aid is conditional, and Euro 'joint liability' won't fix crisis) growing louder and more strained and where decisions are being forced on a broad swathe of desperate politicians and bankers by a market-driven maelstrom.

Both equity and credit markets are bearing the brunt but credit seems the most aggressively beaten down (beta adjusted):

Main +12 to 177bps

XOver +44 to 738bps (handily wider than a closed HY now for over a week)

SovX +13 to 322bps

SENFIN +20 to 266bps

SUBFIN +33 to 476bps

Main Ex-FINLs +10 to 155bps

Germany +5 to 83.5bps

France +14 to 184bps

PIIGS (average) +18 to 1002bps

 

GDP-weighted European sovereign risk is breaking to new wides at 260bps (as Greek 10Y spreads among others make new Euro-era wides):

 

As we have noted in the past, short-sale bans don't work - French and Spanish banks on the list are now notably negative:

 

European equity indices are a sea of red:

And ES is hurting overnight (retracing more than 50% of the recent swing low-to-high):

Chart gallery courtesy of Bloomberg

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papaswamp's picture

Rumors flying about downgrade for Italy coming.

Notice Greece is barely in the news as now it is written off. Italy or Spain (which tries to go unnoticed) next for major economic collapse.

Dingleberry's picture

If Italy or Spain goes, there's no stopping the train to hell.  Even Ben can't print that much money. 

eisley79's picture

they can print any amount of money they want, the issue is when does printing money no longer "work", and at what point does the house of cards collapse and all the printed money trigger hyper inflation

Tom_333's picture

Halleluja brother. Made serious money today.

trampstamp's picture

Buy Mortimor buy

PaperBear's picture

The meltdown continues, pass the popcorn please.

Long-John-Silver's picture

Brace for impact Bitchez!

fx's picture

ZH has become a weird place where gazillions of obscure people seem to have gathered for the sole reason to enjoy their  own (and others') gloom-and-doom-posts Which, while sometimes amusing and eloquent for most part lack knowledge, facts and are more and more pure pieces of heavily biased crap. Worthwile financial news and insights are by now far and few between, the quality of this page is descending in lock-step with the S&P, BofA's stock price and the credibility of the poltitical and economic elites. A few more weeks and I am done with this website - unfortunately.

Kobe Beef's picture

Thanks for coming out. Why read the comments section, then?

traderjoe's picture

In over a year here, I can't remember any insigtful posts with your name attached. In fact, I don't find your name memorable at all.

Therefore, the exit is that way ====>

p.s. What's there to discuss anymore? The path is clear and the die is cast.

edotabin's picture

When my fiance asks me what I am doing, I answer that I am reading "destruction porn"  It is true there is a growing amount of this topic out there to fill the void between the crap of the MSM, the way the world really works and what we have been told.

The only thing is that this "destruction porn" happens to be spot on.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

It's hard to tell, for me, ever since I started rocking a new pair of frames everything has goldish or silverish tinge. I'll just assume we're swimming in a sea of red...

rajat_bhatia's picture

So I'm pretty certain my gold wont be much help in the coming apocalypse

Nate H's picture

Im pretty certain you are right, unless you have lots of friends who have militia skills.

Long-John-Silver's picture

They don't call them Soldiers of Fortune when they're working for anything but Gold.

papaswamp's picture

Try farmers markets...can usually get chickens and goats for gold/silver.

freethinker4now's picture

Why is that? You can use it to hit thieves over the head as the try to steal your last crust

FEDbuster's picture

Time to rebalanced your precious metals portfolio, less gold and silver, more brass and lead.  Stock up on food, it's still cheap and easy to obtain.

coded language's picture

Have no fear. The bad guys are not going to win. We haven't even begun to fight back yet. Just by buying gold and silver you are freeing yourself of the system. Stay away from the corpoate players in the fix as much as you can. Buy organic, grow a garden, build your communtiy of friends and learn some new skills. Don't turn yourself over to the negativity. Stay strong. Stay positive and be a leader for those just waking up. They have snuck up on us and have a head start. People are waking up more than ever now. There will be some fierce and ugly battles, but in the in end the good and the truth will prevail. They will not succeed.

Kobe Beef's picture

Amen. Dont forget to practice your new skills, all. Talk is cheap & won't save your bacon!

Cheers,

Beef

Arthur Two Sheds Jackson's picture

Maybe you could sell that morphine you said you'd kill your family with.

snowball777's picture

You're right,....gold is no substitute for a functioning brain, troll.

mickey boy's picture

this year's high in spread today between 3M euribor and 3m OIS pointing to further escalation in eu banking sector. (funding need anyone?)

freethinker4now's picture

BRING IT ON.  Got an earful from a buddy for constantly going on about the coming Collapse. "People are talking about you, why don't you shut up about it" Look I said, it's coming and I'm only trying to warn you. He still didn't want to hear. So now I'm done with helping people. BRING ON THE PAIN x

Nate H's picture

As a social observer I am curious as to the real driver of your comment (and there are tens of thousands that feel like you, or more).

Are you rooting for collapse primarily because

1)It brings successful people down and therefore raises your relative standing since you were an underachiever in the capitalist regime?

2)Because you want to be 'right', even at cost of no longer living with cell phones, internet, and imported food?

3)Because you think the world will be a better place somehow post collapse, (provided we dont kill all the animals for bush meat and clear cut forests for heat?)

4)Other

 

As I have often said on this site, be careful what ye wish for - there are some gigantor non-linear effects that will occur if the Euro disintegrates - you might not 'enjoy the pain' as much as you might think...schadenfreude is a bitch.

LoneStarHog's picture

Hey, chief, how the hell do you cure an illness without taking your MEDICINE?  All this CRAP about people WISHING for a collapse is BULLSHIT.  People want to CURE our problems and make the Country strong for future generations.  Many of us understand the PAIN that is necessary.  We are prepared to endure PAIN, but far less than other unprepared/sleeping Americans.  We are merely attempting to warn people of what they hear in the media and to prepare to SAVE themselves and their families from EXCESSIVE pain. Capiche?

ArkansasAngie's picture

The threat of pain to come from the downfall of the corrupt status quo is offset by the pain that is already being heaped on those not culpable for the current fiasco.

What we need is new winners and losers based upon historic precedence ... bankruptcy and moral hazard.  Those who took credit and reaped rewards get to now face all the blame and ... of course ... losses.

narapoiddyslexia's picture

Nate H @ 9:03

What about the fellow's actual words? He's trying to warn people about what's coming so they can protect themselves.

So as a social observer, I'm curious about the actual drivers of your comment.

1. psywar troll for the DOD

2. deep denier who cannot fathom what might well be approaching

3. other

Nate H's picture

3. Other

 

Mainly as someone who has studied social systems and recognized the overshoot symptoms of our own, and was rooting for its quick demise and rebirth, but after delving deeper discovered this was naive -  this complex system won't work well (or at all) in reverse and there is a real, non-zero chance of entire grids and supply chains going down - (i.e. forever) if a major currency fails (Japan we might get away with, but not Euro).  And, to a lesser extent, seen explosion of opinions in blogosphere, mostly by people that have part of the story correct, and get dopamine surges by ranting as Rome burns, but ultimately the rants are empty ego-satisfiers and help nothing in building a sustainable, meaningful future.

as to 1) and 2), I think despite what many think, big (organized) government may soon become our greatest hope. As to 2), no - I am very aware of what some of the trajectories in next few years could be - (though it would be impossible for anyone to know them all, or which one is most likely).

Though I recognize the risks, my gut pattern recognition (based on reading history) is that things will be better than most fear/imagine.  But still a nasty bottleneck around the corner. Though energy is the driver, I am not worried about resource shortages, etc in near future - I am quite worried about human behavior...

 

nope-1004's picture

Nate:

I too share the same thoughts and often say to myself "Bring it on already.  Let's get this depression rolling."

But it is not as you suggest, to be "right" or to shove it in anothers' face.

I have worked hard my whole life and really have gotten no where.  I cannot retire with anything substantial and will not have a windfall at 60 to keep me afloat another 25 years.  I kept values about money and greed in check and did not go crazy borrowing like many others.  I made some small investments, some worked, some didn't.  The point is:  I am frustrated by being taken advantage of by the greed that encompasses this country and what Wall Street stands for.  The corruption is pervasive.  So, if someone doesn't want to acknowledge what is coming, I say "bring it on".  Nobody gave a shit about me when they were borrowing to finance their lifestyles, so I don't give a shit about them when this ponzi crumbles and leaves many, if not most, of those pigs in shock.

BRING IT ON.

 

LoneStarHog's picture

Duplicate...MFDS system!

Global Hunter's picture

4) other: the longer it goes on the worse it will be.  It IS coming so lets get it out the way, sitting around waiting sucks.

freethinker4now's picture

1) To your first point. Not successful people who becam welthy through hard work. Hence why I am personally trying to tell my firends to prepare. The ones who I don't believe deserve it, I don't tell.

2) "no longer living with cell phones, internet, and imported food". I personally don't see an apocolypse coming. I do see a major change in how we as a society run our economies and our world i ngeneral.

3) Everything comes in cycles and thats where we are now. Coming to an end in this current cycle. The world will continue, the sun will come up in the morning. Life will go on but in a different form. We are living through one of the greatest times in human history, embrace it.

4) Other, yes that too. NA naa I was right. You should have listened. Best of luck to you in the years ahead.

Nate H's picture

if we could somehow purge our system of (huge) inequality, environmental degradation, and various social ills and get back to a meaningful cultural carrot other than GDP, and do so smoothly then I too would be rooting along with you. I have studied this for enough though that the financial/currency mechanism is too intertwined in our daily lives and a true break there might just break everything due to loss of exchange ability in a world where import substitution policies are suppressed.  OECD nations are NOT prepared for a major currency to fail. Immediate response would be martial, and they aren't prepared for supply/medicine/supply chains etc. (e.g. little to no antibiotics are produced in USA, 35% of our nitrogen imports come from one carribean island, etc.) 

 

I think the system is messed up and we should be constructing a better paradigm, but not be so smug that the end of this one naturally gets us to a better one - i.e. the chronology is backwards

Cathartes Aura's picture

The U.S. went from being the world’s largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizer in the 1980s to becoming the largest importer in the 1990s. Domestic production of nitrogen fertilizer declined during the 1990s as the price of domestic natural gas (the primary source of nitrogen) increased because of demand for natural gas in the U.S. expanding faster than production. Imports of nitrogen—mainly from Trinidad and Tobago, Canada, and Russia, all with lower natural gas prices—quickly filled the gap.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/amberwaves/february04/findings/usincreasinglyimp...

rather near. . . Venezuela, hmm.

tip e. canoe's picture

thanks CA...another sobering statistic from the article:

"Today the U.S. imports over half of the nitrogen and 80 percent of the potash fertilizer used on its farms."

Kobe Beef's picture

WARNING: Is Nate H a Marxist?

Who is We? Are you honestly supposing that big government is the answer? That it can somehow magic away inequality and social ills? That it can establish meaningful culture? I hope you are not proposing a We, as in the government.

Because that sounds like a Totalitarian State there, buddy. Everything under the State. I want no part of social engineering, and would rather socialist scientists stop taking my earnings to then meddle in my & my neighbors affairs. The system is so unstable precisely because of Central Planners' manipulation on top of manipulation, eating away at the links of hidden complexity which makes our way of life possible. Read Leonard Read's "I, Pencil." please.

If the government were to scale back, America would bounce back. But the rent-seeking Academic, Corporate & Government Planners are busy building the kind of State which would fictitiously "cure" the inequality, environment, and society, while actually draining the wealth of the productive. One may observe the world, but using force to "ensure" some particular outcome across broad society will do more harm than good. The US Treasury is empty. Big (organized) government spent it all.

I want to be free. If it takes collapsing the present Authoritarian State to win Liberty, so be it. I know that the parasites enmeshed throughout the government will not go easily. Other peoples' money is an acquired taste.

Forgive me if i have mischaracterized your argument, but be aware I oppose Marxist "Big (organized) Government" in all its forms. Many here also do. Perhaps that is why some wish for the collapse. Or perhaps not. I have no business guessing what others think, nor forcing them to think my way.

Yours in freedom,

Beef

 

 

jerry_theking_lawler's picture

4)Other: He may actually care for his fellow "man" and wants them to be prepared for the coming doom!

 

Well, at least that is the category that I fall within......

And BTW, for your social observer categories 1)I am quite successful and highly educated 2)I do not want to be right because I understand the impact it will have on the most important people in my life (my family) 3)I think the world is quite lovely like it is b/c most everyone alive today has a fairly high standard of living and actually "have it good"...

Ethics Gradient's picture

The collapse can achieve anything and everything - although it rather depends who you talk to.

It will bring about the end/new begining for socialism. It will ruin/reinvigorate the arts. It will rid the world of plutocrats (either that or make them stronger). It will bring starvation or plenty of high quality local food etc, etc.

In all likelihood, it would do all of the above. It would rather depend on where you live. The theme that runs through all Collapsophiles is a belief in greater self determination.

This entire website is devoted to assist in bringing about an enormous crash. It's banned in some companies because of the effect they feel it could have on their staff. But surely that's like a turkey voting for Christmas....but then I imagine TDs phys holdings would be enough to buy a small country post crash.

Leraconteur's picture

"As a social observer I am curious as to the real driver of your comment (and there are tens of thousands that feel like you, or more).

Are you rooting for collapse primarily because..."

Observer notices large boulder peal off from rock face and begin to plummet to campsite below.

Observer yells to campers:

"Look Out! A large rock is going to hit you! Run!"

Nate H then replies:

"As a social observer I am curious as to the real driver of your comment. Why are you rooting for that rock to hit that campsite?..."

Nate H. doesn't realize they are not rooting, they are observing and everyone else is blind.

LoneStarHog's picture

When the collapse comes, they will line-up to SOCIALIZE your preparations.  Be sure that you are more than willing to share your supply of LEAD.

snowball777's picture

Another one who thinks the entire world will behave as he would.

Waffen's picture

I will gladly exchange some of my preps for:

*Goats

*Silver

*Gold

*Motorcycles

*Gas

etc

(I may even exchange one of my Duck eggs for an Ipad, I've always wanted one).

Awakened Sheeple's picture

Nothing you can really do to open some people's minds up. I've warned family and friends but you can't prepare for them. Hopefully things don't get as bad as most people predict. :/

FEDbuster's picture

I was talking with a prepper friend last night about it.  Neither of us want a collapse (it would really suck big time), but if it comes food and water are our main concerns (if you need medical help you would be screwed).  The longer TPTB can kick the can, the more time we have to prepare.  I like shopping at the grocery store, raising (or trying to raise) your own food is tough, hard work.  I would never "cheer on" the collapse of the system, because there will be a great deal of death and destruction as a result.  I do understand your frustration with trying to "wake" people up to the real concerns out there, but most people won't (or can't) contemplate the future you are trying to describe to them.  Take the time to watch this video from analyticalsurvival (very good source of information on prepping) regarding "warning" people.  I think it will help:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yW8iChA0Z5Q

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof."

John Kenneth Galbraith