Market Snapshot: Gold & Silver Continue Slide As ES Drops 20pts From Highs

Tyler Durden's picture

While Friday's dramatic skid lower in the precious metals was later blamed somewhat on a leaked margin hike (as well as the simultaneous and anti-empirical sell-off in 30Y), it seems the liquidations that were rumored (whether hedgie or central banker) are in play once again as both gold and silver (the latter very significantly!) are finding little support. After some early weakness (EUR strength), the China news we noted earlier and general lack of any actionable rescue plan or large-scale money-printing has markets in a decidedly risk-off mode for the last few hours as ES shifts into the red and very early credit runs show 2-3bps widening in the front-end of the European indices.


Its not only the precious metals but copper and oil are also dropping and the latest headline from Bloomberg is not helping:



UPDATE: Silver is now -16%!

Gold/Silver Ratio has smashed higher as Silver plummets (to Sep2010 highs) - is it too simple to see similar jarring patterns leading up to crises?

As Gold drops below $1600 for the first time since July and Silver is down a further 12% from Friday's close, it seems the relative under-performance of Gold and Silver suggest this is still liquidation (and margin-exaggerated). The dollar dipped out of the gate but has recovered and is back at last week's highs now with the EUR testing 1.34. Notably, JPY is rallying once again and while GBP is unch from Friday, JPY is stronger (vs USD) by around 0.5% as JPY crosses (carry pairs) all send a very risk-off signal.

TSYs are rallying modestly off the late Friday peaks in yields with 30Y -3bps as the whole curve flattens very slightly for now. Stocks are much more active than TSYs or FX for now having managed to get up to 1144.5 in early Sunday trading only to drop back into the red retracing 50% of the upswing from early Friday - hovering around Friday's closing VWAP level for now.

Charts: Bloomberg

Early credit index runs show modest 2-3bps decompression in CDS and in cash, we see flattening/inversion and higher yields across the board with IRE and ESP worst performers so far (though not all are open). PTE is 22bps wider vs Bunds in 2Y and 11bps wider in 10Y. UPDATE: XOver +16bps and Main +4bps - Senior FINLs +6bps

And finally, for some perspective, now all risk drivers are open we see ES pulling down towards its CONTEXT expected value:

Chart: Capital Context

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RmcAZ's picture

What. The. Fuck.

jomama's picture

fundamentals. obviously.

Western's picture

Blythe Masters better have a private island stipulated in her retirement plan (or bonus plan, which she probably just earned tonight). She is the face of JPM's fraudulent/corrupt silver conquest and will get shot in the head if seen in a public forum.

Double tap.

eisley79's picture

in addition, dear reader, to the awesome youtube clip you didnt click and watch, and are missing out on.  Here's a reply of mine from down below for those ask what?


even with the latest rise, Gold's margin or leverage ratio is 20:1

For example, to buy one ounce of gold at 1750, would have cost 87.50.  So, when Gold fell over 100 dollars (or more than 5%).  Everyone who bought the top on margin lost all of their money, and some they didnt have....

We are in a massive deleveraging of margin buyers, and the more it falls, the more people's entry point gets wiped out.

These are the so called "weak hands"

In addition you have all the anti-gold noobs/tools who are shorting, or who did short and need to get out with a profit.

In addition dollar strength is working against it as well.  Not because people want dollars, but because they have to get them/use them.

trav7777's picture

lemme guess...another silverbugz bagholder?

somethingisrotten's picture

Wow, the Morgue trolls are out in force this morning.

MFL8240's picture

This is the new America, how do you like it?? The courrption is more that I can stand anymore.  This is not consolidation or a correction, this is outright fraud and manipulation because that is all this country can do to win at anything. Bet my life on it that the bald liar and tax cheat are behind this planned destruction of wealth.

natty light's picture

Where else but this country can you clear a trade before it exists?

shaxmatist's picture

The Silver and Gold Bubble has popped and the speculators are dumping their metals.

Over the rest of 2011 the prices will readjust back to fair value based on supply and demand,

$1047/oz for gold and $19.57/oz for silver by january 2012 are the targets

itchy166's picture

I hope you are right, a couple more monster boxes for boxing day!!

eisley79's picture

"the" targets lol, shouldnt you post the link to your blog that no one will read or click on, to go with that "mu"

Spirit Of Truth's picture

Get upset all you want, but the gold/silver trade became grossly lop-sided and sentiment was, well, ebullient.

Chris Carolan marked the top as a Spiral Calendar anniversary, and Elliott Wave International accurately predicted the collapse in precious metal prices.

It's not a conspiracy.  It's a matter of folk here failing to recognize that they got caught up in an extraordinary popular delusion and the madness of the crowd.

Bob Prechter is right IMHO, the primary force in the world economy and financial markets is DEFLATION.  We are more likely heading into hyperdeflation than hyperinflation.  Exactly how that manifests is where Prechter and I don't see eye to eye.


tmosley's picture

lol, Precter predicted 10,000 of the last two crashes, and anyone who invested a million dollars with that buffoon when he started offering his "service" has less than $400 to their name as of some 9 months ago.

trav7777's picture

so, in other words, his picks are about as good as yours?

tmosley's picture

Hmm, being right 95% of the time vs being wrong 99.5% of the time.  I can see how that would confuse you.  

somethingisrotten's picture

Wow, the Morgue trolls are out in force this morning.

ManufacturedOpinion's picture

Jeezus Christ - another dolt that uses words he can't even define (hyperdeflation, hyperinflation).

Shut up kid, and leave the big words for the grownups.

Spirit of idiocy.

Spirit Of Truth's picture

I've never understood the logic of ad hominem attacks, but I think it stems from an emotional incapacity to deal with the truth.

eisley79's picture

ad hominem, is attack the man.....

one guy pointed out the person you quoted has a terrible track record.

the other guy pointed out you used words ad hominem


neither of which these were.  now, they did wrap up the comments in some nice flowers for you


but i have never understood the peopel who post on zero hedge, and complain about other users's zero hedge.



Also, you should be careful about making grand sweeping statements you cant back up on here.  People will quote your owns words when they have been proven wrong, and you might have to make a new account.

Spirit Of Truth's picture

The most emotional arguments come out of folk who are heavily invested at tops.  Unfortunately, there are many PM bugs here at ZH who are clinging to their tulip bulbs outraged that anything could undermine the value of their precious flowers.  But reality is what it is and spurious arguments and reasoning as well as spurning those who were spelling out the truth all along will not win one anything other than even worse realized losses.

High Plains Drifter's picture

bob prechter?     you have to be kidding?    where is gekko?

fonestar's picture

Your obviously an idiot who has no idea about metals, "fair value" or just value at all.  Gold and Silver have INTRINSIC VALUE that cannot be calculated in USD (or other DEAD currencies for that matter).  Don't believe me?  What does silver trade for today in USSR roubles?  How about Reichsmark issued during the Weimar Republic?

Now take a numerator and divide by ZERO and what do you get?  Run and get your calculator.... hopefully you will figure it out!

Hoody Who's picture

Fonestar, That was beautiful and I believe so correct!!!

A Nanny Moose's picture

I think my calcualor is broken. It keeps telling me that it cannot divide by zero. WTF?! I tried shaking it, and beating it on the desk, but that didn't help.

Perhaps Excel is smarter. If not Excel, maybe my magic 8-Ball knows.

/sarcam -off

theotheri's picture

I called $1000/oz when it hit $1900. You and I ate in agreement.

RmcAZ's picture

Gold now down $106... 6%

RmcAZ's picture

-$120... Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck

jbremner's picture

Looking back at this liquidation on Gold, you'll see this was clearly a buying opportunity.  Buy low, but physcology makes you feel like running back to cash.  DXY's goin 88cents, commodities are gonna get burried, Europe debt crisis will get fixed with more debt and QE will jack the market again and away we go again, Gold at $2500 next summer and you'll all wish you had the guts to pile in when things were scarry.



bob_dabolina's picture

Weeeeeee hheeeeeeeeee

Almost NO BID

MFL8240's picture

Amazing isnt it, a freefall in a time of global turbulance.  The courrption is just fuckin mind blowing. 5000 years it was a safe haven but now its USD and confetti from an insolvent goverment.  Hope China dumps our trearuries and inflicts unimaginable pain to the system.  

JLee2027's picture

Paper market collapse, not a physical collapse.

bob_dabolina's picture

Oh people are still buying their physical for $1923 per ounce?

tmosley's picture

Some are, though I can't imagine why, when it is available elsewhere for less.

bob_dabolina's picture

Anyone buying gold on ebay should rightfully suicide themselves

Get real

tmosley's picture

Funny how you continually insult people with the same opinon as yoruself.  You are a real self-loather, aren't you?

somethingisrotten's picture

Wow, the Morgue trolls are out in force this morning.

trav7777's picture

at this point, you have to consider paying your taxes and walking out.

mayhem_korner's picture

Finally tipped your hand, eh?  Why would I be stupid enough to run for cover when Au is 2x what I bought it for and, moreover, why I bought it (to have and to hold, 'til death do us part)?

You act like a weak hand.

bankruptcylawyer's picture

dooooood . theres a difference when you have gold in your house safe and when a bank has gold in its vault. the bank's gold is a tier 1 asset from which it can borrow 95% it's value from the fed. 

there is no difference between the paper and gold markets except until soome sort of catastrophic loss of control over gold markets by tptb. 

adn when that happens, you'll be happy you have your gold, but you won't be happy. spend your gold by donating it to the ron paul campaign and help bring about change for the better, instead of hoarding it and hoping for some sort of collapse.. 

gorillaonyourback's picture

it will,   europe will by today, change the charter for eu to make a eurobond.   gold will rise accordingly but eventually will fall in early 2012.  because they will buy bonds the (ECB) banks will park their money back at the ecb or american banks increasing the reserves but not their capital, because there are no willing lenders to us peons.  hell i would love to have that 50-60k credit line cuz i would not pay it back i would party that shit a way and have some fun and they know that lololololol

Now gold will only go up if and when the big players look at that digital number or peice of paper and say to themselves " I have to invest in something that keeps its value"  real estate ?no,whose gonna want to buy house at over inflated prices even now. stocks? no, companies bottom line will be squeezed because there is no money in circulation(capital) just look at goldman expecting first losing quarter in 2years. hookers?  yeah good value there

only safe haven is commodities only things being bought and sold with paper currency that has some intrinsic value is commodities (neccesaties, food, oil ,toilet paper, etc) when the big boys realize this its game over  revolution


Ghordius's picture

EuroBond? You do realize that only major players outside the EuroZone are asking for a EuroBond? The EuroBond would mean some kind of EuroTax, and this is really not that easy to ask from the peoples of the EU. Very unlikely.

gorillaonyourback's picture

they have no choice,,,,,, bank runs goin on right now is heating up real fast

gorillaonyourback's picture

how low can it go with out pulling the eurobond trigger loloololol

theotheri's picture

5000 years ago they didn't have computers.


Barbaric relic. Remember that.

Kobe Beef's picture

5,000 years ago they were smarter than trusting their hard-earned money to computers.

Where's your money when the power goes out, genius? Think about that.

ManufacturedOpinion's picture

I will bid.

All the way down and halfway up the other side.