Market Snapshot: US Friday Afternoon Hope Dashed

Tyler Durden's picture

FX markets opened first and gapped down 100pips in EURUSD only to retrace back to fill the gap and then drop all the way back down again - all within the first hour. European credit markets (early CDS runs) are trading very marginally wide of their European closing levels from Friday and that is where US equity futures have pulled back to - 11/12am ET Friday levels - extinguishing the late-day hopium-inspired melt-up. We noted Friday that the late-day jump higher in stocks was not supported by any other asset class and sure enough, ES has retraced it all.


ES is down 17pts from Friday's close - testing the lows from Friday's early trading.


The EUR is starting to crack lower once again as we post - back below 1.3675 - under Thursday's lows as DXY pushes above Thursday's highs.

Chart: Bloomberg

CONTEXT - adjusted for the fact that TSYs have yet to open - indicates ES should be more like 1185 currently (about 10pts lower) - driven by the shifts in carry pairs (mostly AUDJPY and EURJPY), gold's relative strength (within a hair of $1830), and WTI's continued slide (back under Friday's lows around $87). Silver is holding up near Wednesday's highs while Copper is below last week's lows now (and notably back to August 9th lows for the DEC futures contract and down 8.5% from its September 1st highs!).

TSY futures are well bid with the Long bond up over a point, 10Y +16 ticks (around a 6bps compression in yields), and 5Y +5 ticks.

SovX is being quoted unchanged and SUBFIN 3-4bps wider (with SENFIN unch so far). The short-end of the XOver credit curve is underperforming +9bps at 670/677. Asia Pac sovereigns are around 3bps wider.

As we post, risk assets are starting to leg gently down.

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H H Henry P P P Paulson's picture

More like Market Slingshot.  How about some Warren Buffett jokes?

ihedgemyhedges's picture

Ok.  What do Warren Buffett and Jimmy Buffett have in common?  They're both past their time and sing the same song over and over and over again.........................................

Jeff Lebowski's picture

McDonalds released a new Obama menu.  You get the meal and the guy behinds you pays for it.

Pool Shark's picture



McDonalds is naming a new McRib sandwich after Obama:

It's pure pork and double the tax...


IronShield's picture

What do you get when you cross the Godfather with a Lawyer (or Politician)?


An offer you can't understand!  Yuck, Yuck, Yuck...

Spirit Of Truth's picture

Warren could end up part of the bears' buffet next week.

Bernanke wants to manipulate the markets with his....oh jeepers we're having a 2-day meeting this time around....Mr. Wall Street just knows the all-powerful Fed is going to hand out cookies and ice cream after meeting.

Ben....Tim....go stick it where the sun don't shine.  The market is God and you are false prophets.  Sit down, shut up and learn who's boss.

Arrogant ignoramuses.

Greenspan: "I have found a flaw."

macholatte's picture

They need 2 days because it's the annual Fed - GS gin rummy tournament. The winner gets to change his name and receive a government pay check for life. Watch it live on ESPN.

X.inf.capt's picture

i bet you did, greenspan, its called YOU!

mr. zero stroke  himself

franzpick's picture

Time for Becky to remind Warren what to do when the euro bond wide-on appears.

NumNutt's picture

Market slapshot? Or the Greek effect......

chump666's picture

-1.7% fall on copper.

Long-John-Silver's picture

Copper thieves will work 1.7% harder. There are an endless supply of empty, Bank owned homes to strip.

Caviar Emptor's picture

I saw this today: 

More people in US now die from drugs than auto accidents. First. 

Hephasteus's picture

Copper's worried it's going to get a fuck off letter. And noboy will buy any copper wire to send it.

Barb Dwire's picture

You know the drill, fade the market into the open, then the bots pump pump pump it like John Holmes on a Viagra overdose. Markets will undoubtedly close higher now - facts don't matter, charts don't matter, the only thing that matters anymore is how many processors you are trading against in Mahwah.

ihedgemyhedges's picture

"pump pump pump it like John Holmes on a Viagra overdose."  You can OD on Viagra?????  Damn, maybe that's why my wife walks funny and I keep knocking over the lamps...............................

oogs66's picture

we have a stock culture and idiots who can't pass the sat's...think that is a coincidence?

TradingJoe's picture


It seems to me we are close to lose our minds over what the banchero trash will or will not do we are as pathetic as they are, we simply KNOW JACK about WHAT the FEDsters will say or do or NOT!

It's a 50/50 chance and we are not in then position to KNOW, only the insiders, the PDs, KNOW!
It's a casino and our hand is against the house! We'll see!

UGrev's picture

I completely agree. The Algo's are only truly effective because they respond to us. If they started to act solely upon the "math" of another algo, it would be a blood bath; it would indeed rip it apart. 

jdelano's picture

I know that if Ben prints with inflation up ticking as it is, he will be directly defying the fed mandate and a lynch mob (led by some lummox like perry) will storm his house...

ZeroPower's picture

Well ya SovX is unchanged considering theres what like one poor guy out there giving out runs?

Lets wait just a few more hours now for the real fun. Xover back in 800s eow no doubt.

janus's picture

yes, ZP, janus is anxiously awaiting your thoughts.

wake the fuck up, you lazy canadian!

feed me your wisdom!

tell the girls janus sez howdy.

sheeple2012's picture

My call for tomorrow: 3am futures stick save, flattish open, up 10-15 handles by the close...



lapedochild's picture

Your call, my fear.... It's how it's been going lately.. I would like to see a retrace not only to Friday's meltup opening levels but to pre last weeks levels.

Long-John-Silver's picture

Calling this market (until it crashes) is a Crap shoot. I would stand a better chance at a Black Jack table.

lano1106's picture

yeah it is going to be like until it doesn't. It has been like that for the last 2 weeks. That is probably enough to condition the suckers. Now it could crash.

Besides, a small melt down to help european politicians to come back to reason and become more compliant to TPTB directives could be conveniant this week.


jdelano's picture

Yup--but won't be selling my puts.

ISEEIT's picture

You Fuckers are so technically sexy, Bet you have some 'girls' thinking with ya?

Do You Speak Greek's picture

"The council has estimated demand [for gold] from China may double in 10 years. The forecast may be “too conservative,” Cheng said."

lolmao500's picture

Bernanke should just go for it and say he'll buy whatever the markets needs in terms of treasury, no limits.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It's like a poker tournament, and Bernanke gets to rebuy everytime he goes out.  And then there is China who won't play his hand-  "Clock!"

RobotTrader's picture

More panic buying in T-Bonds again.  Appetite for fiat notes is simply voracious.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Who buys the paper of the buyer of the paper?

Caviar Emptor's picture

Now at a theater near you: 

NYT: Fed Runs Risk of Doing Less Than Expected 

tkinfo's picture

The pop on Friday was from the shorts reacting to the rebalancing for the Triple Witching. Not so much hopium as fear. The shorts need to get some cajones like we hedge fund managers that use the rallies to set new shorts against, not cover or cower in fear. :)

chump666's picture

5days of panic meltup rallies, now you'll get 2days of panic meltdowns...till the FED.  But, all they will do is flood the EZ with USD's and twist etc.

Copper getting hammered looks like a China warning shot again.

Everything is looking f*cked.  Greece will default very soon.

Al Huxley's picture

Only ones really hurt by a Greek default are the German and French banks (and all the banks that have any financial ties to those German French banks - ie all of them).. Therefore, the EU will do EVERYTHING possible to prevent a default. I would buy 1yr Greek bonds if there was a relatively easy way to do it.

LeonardoFibonacci's picture

"The more I see of the moneyed class, the more I understand the guillotine." - George Bernard Shaw

msmith's picture
Could be a big down week.  ES  CL
Georgesblog's picture

It's obvious that this mess is going to come down to a Photo Finish. It will just like the famous photo of the Yalta Conference. Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin, deciding how to divide up the world, after they get rid of Hitler. WEe'll get to see who gets to sit in who's seat.

adr's picture

Yes but after Yalta Roosevelt died and Truman, who was kept in the dark, said you're going to give who what??? Screw that!!!

We ended up with the Cold War but that was better than flying a communist flag over the USA. Well at least it prevented it for a little while.

Georgesblog's picture

Good point, adr. There is no honor among theives. They still do the Bait-And-Switch the good old fashioned way. I think of the scene in the bar in "Goodfellas". The central banks don't pay off to mooks.