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Market Snapshot: US Friday Afternoon Hope Dashed

Tyler Durden's picture




 

FX markets opened first and gapped down 100pips in EURUSD only to retrace back to fill the gap and then drop all the way back down again - all within the first hour. European credit markets (early CDS runs) are trading very marginally wide of their European closing levels from Friday and that is where US equity futures have pulled back to - 11/12am ET Friday levels - extinguishing the late-day hopium-inspired melt-up. We noted Friday that the late-day jump higher in stocks was not supported by any other asset class and sure enough, ES has retraced it all.

 

ES is down 17pts from Friday's close - testing the lows from Friday's early trading.

 

The EUR is starting to crack lower once again as we post - back below 1.3675 - under Thursday's lows as DXY pushes above Thursday's highs.

Chart: Bloomberg

CONTEXT - adjusted for the fact that TSYs have yet to open - indicates ES should be more like 1185 currently (about 10pts lower) - driven by the shifts in carry pairs (mostly AUDJPY and EURJPY), gold's relative strength (within a hair of $1830), and WTI's continued slide (back under Friday's lows around $87). Silver is holding up near Wednesday's highs while Copper is below last week's lows now (and notably back to August 9th lows for the DEC futures contract and down 8.5% from its September 1st highs!).

TSY futures are well bid with the Long bond up over a point, 10Y +16 ticks (around a 6bps compression in yields), and 5Y +5 ticks.

SovX is being quoted unchanged and SUBFIN 3-4bps wider (with SENFIN unch so far). The short-end of the XOver credit curve is underperforming +9bps at 670/677. Asia Pac sovereigns are around 3bps wider.

As we post, risk assets are starting to leg gently down.

 

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Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:24 | 1683372 H H Henry P P P...
H H Henry P P P Paulson's picture

More like Market Slingshot.  How about some Warren Buffett jokes?

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:55 | 1683458 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Ok.  What do Warren Buffett and Jimmy Buffett have in common?  They're both past their time and sing the same song over and over and over again.........................................

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:08 | 1683489 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

McDonalds released a new Obama menu.  You get the meal and the guy behinds you pays for it.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:19 | 1683509 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

McDonalds is naming a new McRib sandwich after Obama:

It's pure pork and double the tax...

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 23:17 | 1683610 IronShield
IronShield's picture

What do you get when you cross the Godfather with a Lawyer (or Politician)?

 

An offer you can't understand!  Yuck, Yuck, Yuck...

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:16 | 1683469 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Warren could end up part of the bears' buffet next week.

Bernanke wants to manipulate the markets with his....oh jeepers we're having a 2-day meeting this time around....Mr. Wall Street just knows the all-powerful Fed is going to hand out cookies and ice cream after meeting.

Ben....Tim....go stick it where the sun don't shine.  The market is God and you are false prophets.  Sit down, shut up and learn who's boss.

Arrogant ignoramuses.

Greenspan: "I have found a flaw."

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:28 | 1683528 macholatte
macholatte's picture

They need 2 days because it's the annual Fed - GS gin rummy tournament. The winner gets to change his name and receive a government pay check for life. Watch it live on ESPN.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:51 | 1683531 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

i bet you did, greenspan, its called YOU!

mr. zero stroke  himself

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:27 | 1683525 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Time for Becky to remind Warren what to do when the euro bond wide-on appears.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:26 | 1683377 NumNutt
NumNutt's picture

Market slapshot? Or the Greek effect......

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:28 | 1683392 way-out-west
way-out-west's picture

Market Buckshot!

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:36 | 1683418 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Or Greeced rails.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:29 | 1683394 chump666
chump666's picture

-1.7% fall on copper.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:35 | 1683414 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Copper thieves will work 1.7% harder. There are an endless supply of empty, Bank owned homes to strip.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:15 | 1683497 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Bullish for meth.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:27 | 1683526 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I saw this today: 

More people in US now die from drugs than auto accidents. First. 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:15 | 1683501 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Copper's worried it's going to get a fuck off letter. And noboy will buy any copper wire to send it.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:30 | 1683400 Barb Dwire
Barb Dwire's picture

You know the drill, fade the market into the open, then the bots pump pump pump it like John Holmes on a Viagra overdose. Markets will undoubtedly close higher now - facts don't matter, charts don't matter, the only thing that matters anymore is how many processors you are trading against in Mahwah.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:51 | 1683571 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

"pump pump pump it like John Holmes on a Viagra overdose."  You can OD on Viagra?????  Damn, maybe that's why my wife walks funny and I keep knocking over the lamps...............................

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:32 | 1683406 oogs66
oogs66's picture

we have a stock culture and idiots who can't pass the sat's...think that is a coincidence?

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:42 | 1683421 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

WELL WHY NOT STAY OUT ALL TOGETHER THEN AND LET THE MACHINES RIPP EACH OTHER OFF?!?
THIS MADNESS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NO MATTER THE FEDSTER TALK/DECISION I FOR ONE STAY HEDGED SHORT WITH OPTIONS REST IS CASH AND PMs!

It seems to me we are close to lose our minds over what the banchero trash will or will not do we are as pathetic as they are, we simply KNOW JACK about WHAT the FEDsters will say or do or NOT!

It's a 50/50 chance and we are not in then position to KNOW, only the insiders, the PDs, KNOW!
It's a casino and our hand is against the house! We'll see!

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:00 | 1683471 UGrev
UGrev's picture

I completely agree. The Algo's are only truly effective because they respond to us. If they started to act solely upon the "math" of another algo, it would be a blood bath; it would indeed rip it apart. 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 23:49 | 1683645 jdelano
jdelano's picture

I know that if Ben prints with inflation up ticking as it is, he will be directly defying the fed mandate and a lynch mob (led by some lummox like perry) will storm his house...

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:44 | 1683430 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Well ya SovX is unchanged considering theres what like one poor guy out there giving out runs?

Lets wait just a few more hours now for the real fun. Xover back in 800s eow no doubt.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:04 | 1683851 janus
janus's picture

yes, ZP, janus is anxiously awaiting your thoughts.

wake the fuck up, you lazy canadian!

feed me your wisdom!

tell the girls janus sez howdy.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:54 | 1683456 sheeple2012
sheeple2012's picture

My call for tomorrow: 3am futures stick save, flattish open, up 10-15 handles by the close...

A.J.C.

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:02 | 1683473 lapedochild
lapedochild's picture

Your call, my fear.... It's how it's been going lately.. I would like to see a retrace not only to Friday's meltup opening levels but to pre last weeks levels.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:03 | 1683476 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Calling this market (until it crashes) is a Crap shoot. I would stand a better chance at a Black Jack table.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:16 | 1683504 lano1106
lano1106's picture

yeah it is going to be like until it doesn't. It has been like that for the last 2 weeks. That is probably enough to condition the suckers. Now it could crash.

Besides, a small melt down to help european politicians to come back to reason and become more compliant to TPTB directives could be conveniant this week.

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 23:50 | 1683648 jdelano
jdelano's picture

Yup--but won't be selling my puts.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:00 | 1683470 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

For those who shorted t-bonds, we salute you:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H33vSYapNNs&feature=related

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:05 | 1683482 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

You Fuckers are so technically sexy, Bet you have some 'girls' thinking with ya?

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:05 | 1683483 Do You Speak Greek
Do You Speak Greek's picture

"The council has estimated demand [for gold] from China may double in 10 years. The forecast may be “too conservative,” Cheng said."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-19/china-s-gold-investment-to-top-...

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:09 | 1683491 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Bernanke should just go for it and say he'll buy whatever the markets needs in terms of treasury, no limits.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:21 | 1683511 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It's like a poker tournament, and Bernanke gets to rebuy everytime he goes out.  And then there is China who won't play his hand-  "Clock!"

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:23 | 1683516 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

More panic buying in T-Bonds again.  Appetite for fiat notes is simply voracious.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:40 | 1683557 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Who buys the paper of the buyer of the paper?

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:24 | 1683517 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Now at a theater near you: 

NYT: Fed Runs Risk of Doing Less Than Expected 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:42 | 1683559 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Cue Krugman hit piece....

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:32 | 1683539 tkinfo
tkinfo's picture

The pop on Friday was from the shorts reacting to the rebalancing for the Triple Witching. Not so much hopium as fear. The shorts need to get some cajones like we hedge fund managers that use the rallies to set new shorts against, not cover or cower in fear. :)

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:33 | 1683540 chump666
chump666's picture

5days of panic meltup rallies, now you'll get 2days of panic meltdowns...till the FED.  But, all they will do is flood the EZ with USD's and twist etc.

Copper getting hammered looks like a China warning shot again.

Everything is looking f*cked.  Greece will default very soon.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 23:15 | 1683606 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Only ones really hurt by a Greek default are the German and French banks (and all the banks that have any financial ties to those German French banks - ie all of them).. Therefore, the EU will do EVERYTHING possible to prevent a default. I would buy 1yr Greek bonds if there was a relatively easy way to do it.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:35 | 1683546 LeonardoFibonacci
LeonardoFibonacci's picture

"The more I see of the moneyed class, the more I understand the guillotine." - George Bernard Shaw

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:43 | 1683563 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

monied

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 23:12 | 1683601 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Nice. Always enjoyed Shaw.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:43 | 1683562 msmith
msmith's picture
Could be a big down week.  ES http://bit.ly/nlr4c9  CL  http://bit.ly/of1zer
Sun, 09/18/2011 - 23:07 | 1683595 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

It's obvious that this mess is going to come down to a Photo Finish. It will just like the famous photo of the Yalta Conference. Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin, deciding how to divide up the world, after they get rid of Hitler. WEe'll get to see who gets to sit in who's seat.

 

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/photo-finish/

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 23:32 | 1683625 adr
adr's picture

Yes but after Yalta Roosevelt died and Truman, who was kept in the dark, said you're going to give who what??? Screw that!!!

We ended up with the Cold War but that was better than flying a communist flag over the USA. Well at least it prevented it for a little while.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 23:39 | 1683632 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

Good point, adr. There is no honor among theives. They still do the Bait-And-Switch the good old fashioned way. I think of the scene in the bar in "Goodfellas". The central banks don't pay off to mooks.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 23:29 | 1683621 adr
adr's picture

So how do we back a few quadrillion or so in derivatives with gold again?

That has been my biggest problem with this whole situation. They have to continue the game because there isn't enough of anything of real value to even come close to paying back what is owed.  TPTB  have just decided it would be better to have trillion dollar cups of coffee vs deleting the net worth of a few billionares that never even needed or could spend the money in the first place.

The mistake was to give paper value and allow for the accumulation of it without actually needing to perform any duty of worth in order to get it.

Money for nothing and everything on Earth for free!!!!!

The only answer is putting everyone on equal footing and letting those with valuable skills rise from the ashes. The rest can starve.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 00:08 | 1683665 Hansel
Hansel's picture

there isn't enough of anything of real value to even come close to paying back what is owed

Did something change?  I thought we just owed money.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 00:26 | 1683684 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

that is precisely correct. inflate the silly "dollar" down 80% then pay the chumps back. where's the problem?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 00:25 | 1683682 chump666
chump666's picture

300+ (Dow) wipeout pre Fed, S&P going -2% neg...

asia is red.  Oil states just said they like the USD peg till inflation hits, meaning the Fed will do everything sans "QE3".  Stocks will be brutally sold off again. USD will be bid. Greece gets it's marching orders.

Tight.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 00:30 | 1683688 chump666
chump666's picture

Heng Seng going -3 August equity meltdown redux.  Finally knock these ranges lower.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 01:34 | 1683729 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Now Summers is giving advice to the Eurozone authorities...lol

Apparently the current Sec of the Treasury's financial advice is being ignored.

http://in.news.yahoo.com/summers-urges-pressure-europe-bold-economic-act...

 

 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:00 | 1683849 janus
janus's picture

looks like it was a good thing i didn't hastily close out those dow and s&p shorts, bitchez!

this early bird is gonna git his mutha fuckin worm!

yes, bernake, it's time to start shittin the drawers!

janus is waiting and watching.

time is on OUR side.

lil mood music from mic jagger:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YZBNfYvIMs&feature=related

for those confused: the guy in the death chamber, thinking time is on his side, is bernake; janus is mic jagger -- an he KNOWS it.  lil help with metaphor for those so challenged.

under my thumb,

the stones

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:42 | 1683872 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

the fate of the recovery rests on the shoulders of one man now:

http://www.theonion.com/articles/us-economic-recovery-resting-on-man-cur...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!