Market Snapshot: What A Day!

Tyler Durden's picture

We have seen several days in recent weeks that beggar belief in terms of intraday range and velocity but today was very impressive indeed. After rallying over 2.6% from overnight lows, ES then dropped almost 3.2% before managing a 2.2% rally off intraday lows in the last hour to regain VWAP. A massive volume at the close (especially compared to the rest of the day) was also notable but once again we note the significant pickup in relative volume as we sold off versus the rally.

 

Credit followed a similar path but with significantly less intraday range though HY ended up modestly outperforming IG at the very end of the day. The pattern of index outperforming single-names remained all day as skews compressed (taking away from the overall positivity of the green close in credit) and we note some quite significant deterioration from open to close among many credits. Most notable was further exaggeration of the discussion we had at the European close with regard Financials bond net-buying versus CDS protection buying as we point out BAC widened 15bps from open-to-close, MS 12bps, C 12bps, GS 9bps, and JPM 3bps. This should be intriguing for those who see the 2.8% up day in XLF today.

We pointed out at the earlier close how equities were leading risk assets in general today when they pushed down and that was the case but remarkably, the broad risk-asset-based CONTEXT basket maintained sense of decorum while all about it abandoned ship and by the close ES had pulled all the way back up to 'fair-value'.

TSYs had a relatively quiet day after the auction seemed well received as the belly continued its trend from earlier of underperforming relative to the short- and long-ends (as the 30Y was the only maturity to manage a gain, with its yield dropping 2bps on the day).

The USD leaked higher for much fo the middle of the day until ES decided it was time to rip and DXY went from almost unch on the day to -0.3% - hardly a huge move. We do note that when ES started to really accelerate in the last hour that it was CAD and SEK that moved the most relative to the USD.

Precious metals and oil/commodities also rallied as ES ripped (and USD dipped) - all of them gaining around 1% in the last hour in a wondrous Birinyi's ruler straight-line fashion. We do note that gold is leaking lower after-hours - though only mildly.

All-in-all, a very 'special' day for many traders and we can only hope, for the sakes of people's margin accounts, that getting through the month-/ quarter-end will at least calm intraday craziness a little. However, we fear that the longer it takes to bite the bullet in Europe, the more volatile we get as Greece's deadlines loom and scenarios become fewer and more disparate.

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AladdinSaneGirl's picture

All i can say is, i tend to prefer risky shares, and it's a total bloodbath. Worse today than ever :(

DormRoom's picture

kind of shows that retail & daytraders are out.. And only robots are moving markets.  Algos are bidding/selling against each other.  Skynet is in full control.

And next week will be more deleveraging from hedgefunds  liquidating to meet redemptions, or close shop.

 gold & silver bugs better hope busted hedgefunds don't sell off SLV & GLD all at once.

trampstamp's picture

slingshot trade on ES  240 minute chart. I took it using TNA and road it out. This trade gets it's name when you have a leg down, X to A, then retraces between 50% - 6.18% (A to B), then drops to the 6.18% (B to C) and then buyers load up. At this point the slingshot has been streched back and released. Usually see an explosion up. Of course this trade works the other way around, which btw was in play to the down side on the 60 minute chart earlier in the day. 

 Of course on the leg down (X to A) you have to be below 20 on the RSI to make it a valid trade. Hope to take profit around 1210-1213.

Who the fuck knows, i many never see that target tomorrow lol!

Soul Train's picture

all that slingshot strategy and execution, it's OK when you're young, ---  but watch out, sounds like a set up pattern for future suffering from rapid cycling manic depression later in life.

Like jerking off too much, it can drive you insane.

Not kidding., Anyway, glad to hear you made money and good luck.

trampstamp's picture

I think i jerked off too much already. I'm a crazy old bastard that can't shoot straight.

NoClueSneaker's picture

Never mind- here another old bastard, thick as a brick, enjoying yer insights ....

Mike2756's picture

agreed, looks like it's setting up another waterfall decline to 1k spx.

augie's picture

wait, wait, serious question... what constitutes "too much"?

trampstamp's picture

Enough to the point where i'm jerking off my dog. Wait.... uhmmm.. that's a joke

Manthong's picture

Who wants to bet that the reports on the radio when you get up tomorrow will say “overnight futures trading has the market opening sharply lower this morning”?”

YesWeKahn's picture

chinese stocks got a fair treatment: BIDU, SINA: -10%.

They will soon drop down to the earth.

Buy some protection these days. People are getting insane.

RobotTrader's picture

Banks are acting the best.

GNW, MS, KEY, HIG, etc. all up 6% - 7%, well off their lows from last week.

Bears need to slam this group ASAP, otherwise, the bottom might be in.

rocker's picture

Did you look at a ten day chart on your famous CMA, ZION, AXP, COF and RF.   Hmmmm

Not with my money and no mark to market.

newstreet's picture

Robo, I still think you are the new Alan Abelson.  Guess the Trade on Fire crowd thinks differently.

SwingForce's picture

You said it last week about XLF, nice call. Don't overlook PNC- no mortgage probs, no Euro crap, biggest 2nd tier.

DropOutEconomist's picture

No Mortgage Problems?! They bought National City which was funding all sorts of crap...Neg Am, 10% stated income construction loans and 100% stated income HELOCS..but I am sure its all marked correctly on the books...I would not worry about it too much. 

Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Can we see VIX > 45 tomorrow?

Id fight Gandhi's picture

They're sayin this is all due to the Jew holiday. And quarter ending whatever, just bots going full retard.

TheLooza's picture

its not the holiday.  any jew who is serious about trading found  a way.  This Jew did.

NoClueSneaker's picture

Hehehe, mazeltov - no clue who junked you ....

Conax's picture

Jews that didn't get to trade?

stocksugg's picture

Just in Hedge fund Blow up

With the massive downdraft in momentum stocks today there has been speculation of a hedge fund blow-up. Those rumors now appear to be centered on John Thaler's JAT Capital. While we cannot verity if these rumors are true, the fund owns many of today's worst performers.

Some of his biggest positions includes:

Sina Corp (Nasdaq: SINA) down 10%
Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN) down 6%
Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) down 10%
Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) down 10%
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (Nasdaq: GMCR) down 9%
NetFlix (Nasdaq: NFLX) down 12%
Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP) down 5%.

You can see the entire portfolio here.

News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation

junkyardjack's picture

There'll be much more of this

caerus's picture

the momos were taken out back and shot...when the old leaders die it's the beginning of the end

TheLooza's picture

OH MY FREAKING LORD.  Dude, whoever put together that ridiculous MOMO portfolio needs to get hired by UBS STAT -- they have an open position, i heard.

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

These guys must be bummed Groupon hasn't gone public yet.

TheLooza's picture

litt le disappointed that they didn;t have the good sense to round this out with some  salesforce.com (CRM) and LinkedIn (LNKD).

 

Nice to see that they caught some RIG though. They paid a dividend, you know.

bogey4's picture

Well, he must have been done selling @ 12.30 (pacitic time) because all those stocks ripped higher starting a half hour before the close.

Freddie's picture

Those all look like "safe" names. 

This guy must read IBD each day and loads up.  If he had any leverage (all hedgies do) then he is toast. 

"I love the smell of naplam in the morning....it smells like...victory."

Winning!

ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

If you haven't registered at mffais.com, which allows you to look at the recent activity of firms like JAT, then you're missing a great opportunity to see just what went wrong. 

For example, holding 2 million shares of SINA, they added 700k while selling all of their position in Schlumberger. 

nyse's picture

Love Capital Context.

dcb's picture

ok, just chart the deescendig channell we are in. three days  lower lows and lower highs. very bearish. but until the channel breaks just trade it as a computer, I refer to the s and p

dcb's picture

so your top tomm should be about 1665, I'd expect a drop and then late afternoon rebound so we close in the green, but hey you never know, go long when breaking the pior days high. I find I make my best trades doing this if I have in fact programmed the computer before it happens.

dcb's picture

I also like to set the stop for the day before. meaning my stop loss tomm would be about 1150

when you hig the stop (if it was todays low, it will usually drop below and close above. make it very hard to get a good trade. It's the freaking algo's, and they could do this for months.

in contrast the ddaily macd is going up from the downside, (so we are a bit oversold on the daily side. I expect another run at 1200, or a bit above before another real short

anynonmous's picture

the good ol' days of the 3pm (sometimes 3:30) ramp job

TheLooza's picture

made some horrible trades to start today, beautiful trades in the middle, ass raped at the close.

 

up 200 dollars (with over 3 million going through the cages). 

 

I only wish I had caught the fancy to spank to some first class ukrainian porn in that last hour rather than blow my freaking load all over my (what had been substantial) trading gains for the day.

NoClueSneaker's picture

+ 1000

Describing the way the things r.

Me no clue - GLOBEX rape ?

YesWeKahn's picture

SPY chart looks terrible. I just closed a few long positions after hour. I will match the emerging markets for direction.

Josh Randall's picture

When will CNBC hire Miss Teen South Carolina to answer to the Gold is not backed by anything gal ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQdhMSEqhfg

Never_Put_Down's picture

The "...Gold is not backed by anything gal" is from a Canadian TV news station (CTV Calgary)

 

Snakeeyes's picture

But, but, Freddie Mac announced historic low mortgage rates? How can that NOT stimulate homeownership?

"Freddie Mac announces 4% mortgage rates, doesn’t announce that spreads between 30 yr mtg and 10 yr Treasuries rising to recession levels. Look at the VIX!"

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

SwingForce's picture

Announce it, but they are not the ones who ORIGINATE the loans, the Cartel does, and as I heard, they do not want to part with their income stream of higher rate mortgages. And no refi's either. What makes matters worse is , people got suckered in once before by low interest rate mortgages- gotta make the points 1) FIXED RATE 2) NO TEASERS 3) PAYMENT FIXED for life of loan. Otherwise, nobody interested. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UI2FolId6CA

LongSoupLine's picture

rational and balanced price discovery.

horseshit.