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Market Snapshot: What A Day!
We have seen several days in recent weeks that beggar belief in terms of intraday range and velocity but today was very impressive indeed. After rallying over 2.6% from overnight lows, ES then dropped almost 3.2% before managing a 2.2% rally off intraday lows in the last hour to regain VWAP. A massive volume at the close (especially compared to the rest of the day) was also notable but once again we note the significant pickup in relative volume as we sold off versus the rally.
Credit followed a similar path but with significantly less intraday range though HY ended up modestly outperforming IG at the very end of the day. The pattern of index outperforming single-names remained all day as skews compressed (taking away from the overall positivity of the green close in credit) and we note some quite significant deterioration from open to close among many credits. Most notable was further exaggeration of the discussion we had at the European close with regard Financials bond net-buying versus CDS protection buying as we point out BAC widened 15bps from open-to-close, MS 12bps, C 12bps, GS 9bps, and JPM 3bps. This should be intriguing for those who see the 2.8% up day in XLF today.
We pointed out at the earlier close how equities were leading risk assets in general today when they pushed down and that was the case but remarkably, the broad risk-asset-based CONTEXT basket maintained sense of decorum while all about it abandoned ship and by the close ES had pulled all the way back up to 'fair-value'.
TSYs had a relatively quiet day after the auction seemed well received as the belly continued its trend from earlier of underperforming relative to the short- and long-ends (as the 30Y was the only maturity to manage a gain, with its yield dropping 2bps on the day).
The USD leaked higher for much fo the middle of the day until ES decided it was time to rip and DXY went from almost unch on the day to -0.3% - hardly a huge move. We do note that when ES started to really accelerate in the last hour that it was CAD and SEK that moved the most relative to the USD.
Precious metals and oil/commodities also rallied as ES ripped (and USD dipped) - all of them gaining around 1% in the last hour in a wondrous Birinyi's ruler straight-line fashion. We do note that gold is leaking lower after-hours - though only mildly.
All-in-all, a very 'special' day for many traders and we can only hope, for the sakes of people's margin accounts, that getting through the month-/ quarter-end will at least calm intraday craziness a little. However, we fear that the longer it takes to bite the bullet in Europe, the more volatile we get as Greece's deadlines loom and scenarios become fewer and more disparate.
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All i can say is, i tend to prefer risky shares, and it's a total bloodbath. Worse today than ever :(
kind of shows that retail & daytraders are out.. And only robots are moving markets. Algos are bidding/selling against each other. Skynet is in full control.
And next week will be more deleveraging from hedgefunds liquidating to meet redemptions, or close shop.
gold & silver bugs better hope busted hedgefunds don't sell off SLV & GLD all at once.
slingshot trade on ES 240 minute chart. I took it using TNA and road it out. This trade gets it's name when you have a leg down, X to A, then retraces between 50% - 6.18% (A to B), then drops to the 6.18% (B to C) and then buyers load up. At this point the slingshot has been streched back and released. Usually see an explosion up. Of course this trade works the other way around, which btw was in play to the down side on the 60 minute chart earlier in the day.
Of course on the leg down (X to A) you have to be below 20 on the RSI to make it a valid trade. Hope to take profit around 1210-1213.
Who the fuck knows, i many never see that target tomorrow lol!
all that slingshot strategy and execution, it's OK when you're young, --- but watch out, sounds like a set up pattern for future suffering from rapid cycling manic depression later in life.
Like jerking off too much, it can drive you insane.
Not kidding., Anyway, glad to hear you made money and good luck.
I think i jerked off too much already. I'm a crazy old bastard that can't shoot straight.
Never mind- here another old bastard, thick as a brick, enjoying yer insights ....
agreed, looks like it's setting up another waterfall decline to 1k spx.
wait, wait, serious question... what constitutes "too much"?
Enough to the point where i'm jerking off my dog. Wait.... uhmmm.. that's a joke
deleted
Who wants to bet that the reports on the radio when you get up tomorrow will say “overnight futures trading has the market opening sharply lower this morning”?”
chinese stocks got a fair treatment: BIDU, SINA: -10%.
They will soon drop down to the earth.
Buy some protection these days. People are getting insane.
Banks are acting the best.
GNW, MS, KEY, HIG, etc. all up 6% - 7%, well off their lows from last week.
Bears need to slam this group ASAP, otherwise, the bottom might be in.
Did you look at a ten day chart on your famous CMA, ZION, AXP, COF and RF. Hmmmm
Not with my money and no mark to market.
Robo, I still think you are the new Alan Abelson. Guess the Trade on Fire crowd thinks differently.
You said it last week about XLF, nice call. Don't overlook PNC- no mortgage probs, no Euro crap, biggest 2nd tier.
No Mortgage Problems?! They bought National City which was funding all sorts of crap...Neg Am, 10% stated income construction loans and 100% stated income HELOCS..but I am sure its all marked correctly on the books...I would not worry about it too much.
Can we see VIX > 45 tomorrow?
They're sayin this is all due to the Jew holiday. And quarter ending whatever, just bots going full retard.
its not the holiday. any jew who is serious about trading found a way. This Jew did.
Hehehe, mazeltov - no clue who junked you ....
Jews that didn't get to trade?
Just in Hedge fund Blow up
With the massive downdraft in momentum stocks today there has been speculation of a hedge fund blow-up. Those rumors now appear to be centered on John Thaler's JAT Capital. While we cannot verity if these rumors are true, the fund owns many of today's worst performers.
Some of his biggest positions includes:
Sina Corp (Nasdaq: SINA) down 10%
Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN) down 6%
Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) down 10%
Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) down 10%
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (Nasdaq: GMCR) down 9%
NetFlix (Nasdaq: NFLX) down 12%
Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP) down 5%.
You can see the entire portfolio here.
News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation
There'll be much more of this
the momos were taken out back and shot...when the old leaders die it's the beginning of the end
Jat Capital Management/L/P
OH MY FREAKING LORD. Dude, whoever put together that ridiculous MOMO portfolio needs to get hired by UBS STAT -- they have an open position, i heard.
These guys must be bummed Groupon hasn't gone public yet.
litt le disappointed that they didn;t have the good sense to round this out with some salesforce.com (CRM) and LinkedIn (LNKD).
Nice to see that they caught some RIG though. They paid a dividend, you know.
Well, he must have been done selling @ 12.30 (pacitic time) because all those stocks ripped higher starting a half hour before the close.
Saw that too, have been shorting one of these POS's mentioned so had wondered what was pushing it further green today.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Hedge+Funds/Hedge+Fund+Blow-Up+Rumors+Focus...
Also interesting, from Aug 10:
http://www.businessinsider.com/john-thalers-jat-capital-and-chase-colema...
And:
http://www.businessinsider.com/jat-capital-receives-subpoena-2011-2
Those all look like "safe" names.
This guy must read IBD each day and loads up. If he had any leverage (all hedgies do) then he is toast.
"I love the smell of naplam in the morning....it smells like...victory."
Winning!
If you haven't registered at mffais.com, which allows you to look at the recent activity of firms like JAT, then you're missing a great opportunity to see just what went wrong.
For example, holding 2 million shares of SINA, they added 700k while selling all of their position in Schlumberger.
Love Capital Context.
ok, just chart the deescendig channell we are in. three days lower lows and lower highs. very bearish. but until the channel breaks just trade it as a computer, I refer to the s and p
so your top tomm should be about 1665, I'd expect a drop and then late afternoon rebound so we close in the green, but hey you never know, go long when breaking the pior days high. I find I make my best trades doing this if I have in fact programmed the computer before it happens.
I also like to set the stop for the day before. meaning my stop loss tomm would be about 1150
when you hig the stop (if it was todays low, it will usually drop below and close above. make it very hard to get a good trade. It's the freaking algo's, and they could do this for months.
in contrast the ddaily macd is going up from the downside, (so we are a bit oversold on the daily side. I expect another run at 1200, or a bit above before another real short
the good ol' days of the 3pm (sometimes 3:30) ramp job
made some horrible trades to start today, beautiful trades in the middle, ass raped at the close.
up 200 dollars (with over 3 million going through the cages).
I only wish I had caught the fancy to spank to some first class ukrainian porn in that last hour rather than blow my freaking load all over my (what had been substantial) trading gains for the day.
You are hilarious.
Schmuck! LOL.
+ 1000
Describing the way the things r.
Me no clue - GLOBEX rape ?
SPY chart looks terrible. I just closed a few long positions after hour. I will match the emerging markets for direction.
When will CNBC hire Miss Teen South Carolina to answer to the Gold is not backed by anything gal ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQdhMSEqhfg
The "...Gold is not backed by anything gal" is from a Canadian TV news station (CTV Calgary)
But, but, Freddie Mac announced historic low mortgage rates? How can that NOT stimulate homeownership?
"Freddie Mac announces 4% mortgage rates, doesn’t announce that spreads between 30 yr mtg and 10 yr Treasuries rising to recession levels. Look at the VIX!"
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
Announce it, but they are not the ones who ORIGINATE the loans, the Cartel does, and as I heard, they do not want to part with their income stream of higher rate mortgages. And no refi's either. What makes matters worse is , people got suckered in once before by low interest rate mortgages- gotta make the points 1) FIXED RATE 2) NO TEASERS 3) PAYMENT FIXED for life of loan. Otherwise, nobody interested. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UI2FolId6CA
rational and balanced price discovery.
horseshit.
Nothing to see here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic&noredirect=1
ha!
why didn't they prop up my IAU at the close? don't ETFs count?
And your friendly Friendly's for those of you on the East Coast, going to file for bankruptcy. There goes the ice cream.
And, I have stopped trading long ago. No way I can beat this market with day trading. This kind of volatility is not for me. Gonna sit and watch the pros get slaughtered.
Dang: Friendlys gone? Why, when I was a very young piglet, after earning $3 of a Sunday afternoon, I'd go into the local Friendly's and order "Mint Chocolate Chip" so the young lassie would have to reach waaaaaay back into the corner of the freezer and I could have, well, additional entertainment value for my $1.75.
- Ned
And there, ladies & gentlemen, is the Origination of Double Dip.
That huge volume bar is still on the rally candles, not at the last closing print for the day on ES
They will have to do some serious convincing tomorrow. Everyone inside knows the routine for quarter end. The question is, can they be patient until 4pm tomorrow or will they fold early? Come Monday, their chances to sell to the next greater fool are alot less.
Just scanning through the German coverage on Merkel's important victory and the vote that guarantees Euro to live another day, literally.
Greece is not welcoming the Troika visit. Greece doesn't want the Euro anymore and a Greek default is still very much in the cards if the payment doesn't get authorized.
The vote in Germany today was a pre-emptive measure. To expand the TARP facility IN CASE that credit markets seize up completely over the next weeks.
You know if they're going to that extent to have that vote and risk all political capital IN ADVANCE, then THEY KNOW it's going to get ugly.
This wasn't a BAILOUT vote to fix something after the fact. This was a TARP vote to make sure society can function in the very likely event of a Greek default.
That makes sense.
Like we say at the pool in Boca, "We don't care how you did it in New Yawk".
Likewise we don't give a fuck about Europe either. Oh, and 28 of 30 Dow stocks pay more than the 10 yr Tnote.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UI2FolId6CA
i'm going to vegas, its about as predictable and there are hot chicks
The hot chicks carry AIDS, but stocks carry Bernanke.
Don't you mean the Bernank carries stocks?
completely rational price action.. yeah.
Gold had to leak lower after hours. It was right at the downward trend line. Had it not leaked lower it would have crossed over (which does not happen in after hours - it will take a bit more volume). Watch early Asian trading. A move over 1620 will trigger some stops.
Can someone please tell me what ES stands for?
ES is the CME group's symbol for the e-mini s&p 500 futures contract
And does the price correspond to the Big Contract? Month by month? Seriously, I don't see it does and I don't know why (maybe just due to delayed quotes). It should be noted that the E's trade electronically (no pit) and 24/5 . Thanks.
the big K is crap...watch the mini...
S&P 500 futures ...
Me dumb, but here :-)
"MAY THE SWINGFORCE BE WITH YOU"
3rd Quarter ends tomw, plenty of options to expire too. Hedge Funds need to live, so what will they do?
And there is still a sell off of emerging economies FX + still widening of their credit markets + the 10yr Italian spread is blowing out to the Bund = that is very bearish.
Markets are still confused and volatile, all eyes should be on Asia open. That is the cue, Europe is mess, but the commodity selling continues and equity weakness = Asia is slowing down. That the case. US markets will get hit hard, at the moment they seem to be ignoring the slowdown in Asia.
Oh also, Germany has just sealed it's EU fate. The 'leveraged' EFSF passed without it being called one, means the German people were totally conned...they are going to be taxed to hell mixed with their main customer (China) probably crashing.
Yeah, pure f*cking genius scheme...what a joke.
ha! NZ just got a credit downgrade (on wires) Aust gets one next. Bang! China is done and dusted.
Ever see the final convulsions of a dying patient?
If debt levels in nearly every developed country are out of control and unsustainable then why is it not a good idea to own US companies with solid balance sheets as opposed to countries with bad balance sheets (by being in cash or bonds)? and gold of course
Under the mattress ain't necessarily safe either especially when the printing oresses are running
Great point, those companies won't be subject to austerity measures, or any other measures. And if they don't like the policies of the USA? Well, they just KEEP their cash hoards offshore. Watch out, banks will be buying those stocks with the money The FED gives them. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UI2FolId6CA
what a day!
what's next? risk off?
tyler's volatility play via cheap straddles seems like ongoing fun as enquiring minds want to know: was archduke ferdinand popped during a Fourth Turning?
and as the month and quarter are drawn & quartered, people who faded slewie's PM call of a month ago are now set for early retirement!
kum ba yah, BiCheZ! kum ba yah!
whats next? Total EZ chaos, once the Germans realize that they just allowed themselves to underwrite a Greek 100yr bond (google it was on wires).
The Greeks are going to try and pull a swift one on the bond markets. This BS stops once Germany goes into a politcal meltdown.
Social/economic hell-storm brewing.
you can't make this sh*t up...
This leaks to the Germans/Dutch taxpayers...turmoil.
NEW YORK, September 29 (IFR) - Greece may be looking into kicking the can into the next century. One of the options the sovereign is looking at is offering a 100-year bond in return for outstanding short-term debt, said a banker at one of the institutions advising Greece who said he saw the plans being studied.
Endgame.
Kredtianstalt moment.
hey, if you're gonna kick the can, kick it!!!
i think if you can tell the germans there is no inflation. you can lease their wives and daughters @ 0.5% for three years...
angela delivers! here's the plan:
When the banks finish selling their intermediate Ts to the banks (and run out of cheap proceeds to put into the stock markets), the bets are all off.
The market should see a slight uptick til the end of the year, especially whren retail and internet forecasts come out for the holidays. Video game stocks usually uptick 2-4 mths before Xmas, for example.
The real fun begins in January-March 2012, when the Greece default, BAC stock drop, AND retail reality (they wont meet those forecasts b/c of shattered consumer spending) all happen in a lulzy collapse that we have all known has been coming for quite sometime now.
In communist amerikwa, you don't trade the stock market, stock market trades against you (open interest 24/7).
Wow, I thought all the HFT bots were Jewish.
ATD is short some very interesting stocks....
I started the day on the other side of the street from trampstamp, with a larger load of TZA than I was happy with. Things improved through the morning, and when RUT started breaking down around 1330, I began unloading dear ole Tizzy until I could sleep tonight - which turned out to be real close to the high for the day - it appears I can't screw up Every Single Damn Day after all...
So I've got one eyball on the TZA 3 minute chart (I'm a long-term trader, don't cha know) and the major averages, and the other eye on the other monitor, where I'm frivoling away my time reading the threads on ZH <sarc god dammit> - where the lads are predicating a last half hour of HFT rear-ending.
Lo - it came to pass - in spades. At 1521, the first TZA volume spiked red, and the Dow crossed from red to green. "Startin' a little early, ain't you, boys?" sez I to the monitor with all the snark and sarc I could muster. {I have GOT to stop talking to the damn trading screen.} Each 3 minute segment after saw another red spike, mostly higher than the last, with one 2 penny green exception. The last 3 minutes the volume went over six hundred fucking thousand - and red, of course. The Dow and S&P had finished their 2 1/2 percent run in less than an hour, and I was left to contemplate:
What the hell is it like to be able to plug in your HFT machines and command "Jack the Dow 100 points positive in the next half hour, bitchez!"; then have a glass of champagne with your trophy wife on the balcony as the peons 'occupy Wall Street' on the street below? They must feel like little gods, 'Masters of their Universe'; secure and snug in their realm. Good luck with that...
I started in the market with my own real money in 1964, when there was still such a thing as 'fundamentals' that mattered, and you could read Engel's How to Buy Stocks, take it to heart, and get rich slowly. Sigh...Now it is mostly inorganic high speed casino, and I'm a minnow swimming with sharks - very, very fast sharks.
But at least I'll be able to sleep tonight, Asia is showing a decent amount of red, and tomorrow is another day. An end-of-month, end-of-quarter day. I think I wanna be all bailed on my short side by 1515 - bet the ramp tomorrow will make today's craziness look moderate.