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Market Unhappy With Initial Claims Miss As 1.3 Million People Fall Off Extended Benefits In Past Year

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One month of positive economic surprises since the last FOMC may be all we get, now that a "majority" of FOMC members suddenly need a rapid deterioration in economic data to usher in the NEWER, MORE OPEN-ENDED QE. Initial claims was happy to comply: after posting several weeks in a row of "beats", claims has finally resumed "missing", as well as rising, posting an increase from last week's upward revised 368K print to 372K this week, worse than the expected improvement to 365K, and to a one month high. And with continuing claims missing too, the real story continues to be the steep fall off in those on extended benefits and EUC, which declined by a total of 48K in the past week, and down by about half a million in the last few months, and lower by 1.3 million in the past year. This is 1.3 million fewer consumers who can recycle Uncle Sam's dole back into the economy and iGadgets. The question is whether this minimal miss is enough to justify the FOMC doves' fears the much more QE is needed. Judging by the futures reaction to Bullard and claims, the answer is so far no, and in fact points to something very ominous: the closer the Fed (and ECB) come to actually doing something instead of talking about it, the more negative the market reaction seems to be. Woe to Bernanke or Draghi the second they finally have to do something instead of telling listeners to "believe them."

Claims:

The ongoing collapse in former workers collecting Emergency Unemployment Compensation:

And Market response:

 

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Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:55 | 2729838 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Bullard seems like the Fed member who has a clue. 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:02 | 2729852 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Uhhhh, I'm sure the FOMC minutes reflect the independent nature of the regional banks and all the fed presidents came to their conclusions separately.  I am totally sure that their comments are and will continue to be unscripted and not be influenced by shadow government and central planning.  In addition, since gov't statistics are pure and cannot be adulterated, the current worsening of the labor and economic statistics has nothing to do with political expediency or hidden agendas because this is, after all, an election year. 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:07 | 2729874 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Hang on folks.  Here comes that 13000 mark again...

Grab the bowl.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 13:19 | 2730888 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Wake me up when it is time to don the DOW 10,000 hats again.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:33 | 2729963 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Trust me, I'm from the government and I'm here to help.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:05 | 2730102 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

jekyll island

I know that had to be meant to be funny and it is...

 

"He points out that the Fed said unless incoming data point to “substantial and sustainable” strengthening in the recovery more accommodation is likely to be “warranted fairly soon.”

Fairly soon is an interesting construction given that we are approximately 10 weeks away from the presidential election and nearly a year ago Congressional Republican leaders took the unprecedented step of writing Fed Chairman Bernanke “expressing their reservations” regarding additional Fed intervention. They wrote “the board should resist further extraordinary intervention in the U.S. economy,”

http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/08/22/did-fed-telegraph-qe3-at-last-meeting?ref=hp

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:32 | 2729959 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

"Bullard seems like the Fed member who has a clue. "

 

If Bullard had a clue, he'd be trying to dismantle the FRB. But like most people, the job pays to well.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:49 | 2730025 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

The real story is the complete capture of the media. 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:01 | 2730084 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

+1 on Bullard funny thing the market hasn't cared about jobless claims for months but now that they want more QE...

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:55 | 2729839 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Gold has a giant boner today...the morgue better do something about that.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:05 | 2729865 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

margin hike margin hike

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:47 | 2730015 dow2000
dow2000's picture

Bull Trap, no new QE next week, and now every gold bug has shot their load trying to front run Jackson's Hole. Sub 1500 Gold is next.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:10 | 2730118 dow2000
dow2000's picture

Don't mean to be negative, I'm as big a bug as there is, just getting used to the Central Bank charade.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:23 | 2730166 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

"It's those greedy speculators again."

 

Nancy P.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:58 | 2729842 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

My eyes are beginning to glaze over with all these figures and their revisions. I just have to look around and see people's faces or hear their stories to know where we are headed.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:58 | 2729845 surf0766
surf0766's picture

No doubt these who were added are the Gm workers who built my Camaro with the bad torque converter. Nice job. I could not have expected any better quality any place in the world. Enjoy your paid time off.  When is the recall coming? Oh and the wait for parts is weeks because GM doesn't store parts anymore or something like that. Extra nice.  GM roaring back.  #1

 

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:07 | 2729875 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

You bought a Government Motors car and now you're complaining about quality? That's like paying for a whore then complaining you didn't feel loved.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:11 | 2729887 surf0766
surf0766's picture

I wanted a new one to match the 69 pace we have

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 13:23 | 2730904 SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

GM has one of the most efficient V8 engines ever built. The LS engine was touched by the hand of God himself, it is compact, lightweight, efficient, easily modified and produces great power and torque. 

Who cares about who owns GM, the engine has only gotten better since the LS1, LS2, LS3, LS7, LSA, etc, so relax and this coming from a Ford guy.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:10 | 2729885 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

Gotta agree. You bought a GM car and find it amazing that their quality sucks? What were you thinking?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:59 | 2729847 reader2010
reader2010's picture

iPhone 5 is comnig soon.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:36 | 2730213 eurogold
eurogold's picture

That will suck too

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:02 | 2729854 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Translation: more debt slaves are unable to get further into debt, which is bad for the money changers. The MASS ARRESTS are coming... the traitors to the Constitution will be tried and convicted.... http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:25 | 2730183 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

When the Internet Sales tax hits (about 8% for most states) consumer spending may plummet even more. GDP will drop into the greater negative Abyss.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:02 | 2729855 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

The hidden stimulus of paying folks to watch TV all day is disappearing.  Lots of moving parts, including a big spike in consumer spending according to Gallup's Daily Poll:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/112723/Gallup-Daily-US-Consumer-Spending.aspx

The unemployment picture won't get any better when the price of oil takes off again, which it is going to do as soon as the Fed does another monetary split.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:07 | 2729872 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Stimulas? We use stimulas to pay for commercials on msnbc.  That is where the stimulas went.    And oil, dam,  not $4.00 here again. There is no one eating out now.

It is $3.73 this morning. Houses are not selling and are being taken off the market or sold for 30% under asking.

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:28 | 2729946 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

you don't have an oil well in your back yard?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:03 | 2729857 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

When no one has a job, initial jobless claims will be 0

This simple mathematical truism is ignored by the statistical deception artists.   Forget initial jobless claims.  Publish REAL TIME on a government dashboard

  • all active unemployement recipients
  • all "length of unemployement" stats for all recipients
  • all current employment statistics based on weekly tax receipts
  • weekly personal income tax receipts

We need to get out of the business of getting these dribling statistics and they should publish live, unedited, statistics on a website dashboard.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:50 | 2730030 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

You want to take all the fun out of it?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:03 | 2729859 youngman
youngman's picture

This is the new normal....the good statistics have moved to Food Stamps and disibility roles.....that is a much better guage on the economy....and the morality of the economy...

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:12 | 2729892 Sauk Leader
Sauk Leader's picture

Just looked at the Application for SNAP in illinois, it conveniently comes with a voter registration form on the last page.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:23 | 2729928 youngman
youngman's picture

Here is the funny thing...do you think they vote for the person who will get them a job......or vote for the person who will increase their SNAP payments...that is the future of our country

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:03 | 2729860 Sutton
Sutton's picture

Communist president.  Health care plan making it insane for companies to hire.  NIRP allowing TBTF's to take control of all crops,minerals and energy markets, producing ever increasing cost  burdens  for non-welfare grubbing  Americans.  For those with jobs it is work more for less.

Either the floor collapses or we blow through the roof.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:54 | 2730047 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Since when do "communists" obey the marching orders of Wall Street?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:05 | 2729863 midtowng
midtowng's picture

99 weeks is officially over. It's now 73 weeks, but only for another 5 months.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:07 | 2729868 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"1.3 Million People Fall Off Extended Benefits In Past Year"

In economic war, unfortunately there is always some collateral damage.

<Pssst.....We'll have to destory the nation to save it.>

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:06 | 2729869 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

but but Fox was touting that 32 week claims under 400k.. yippeee!! green shutes!1

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:36 | 2729975 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

"but but Fox was touting that 32 week claims under 400k.. yippeee!! green shutes!1"

 

How dare you say that. Fox has always been the right wing news media and Obama won't stand for it. They can't put out any story like that.

Thanks for the post. Funny.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:50 | 2730473 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Remember bad claims used to be 300k. That was bumped up to 325k about 2 years ago. We'll start hearing 400k soon (again).

Monthly jobs necessary to keep up with population was 150k - now we're hearing 125k mentioned over and over - I even heard cnbs mention 75k as being OK!! Spanish bond yields above 6% is real bad - no, make that 7%. But it could be 8% depending on where things end up in a month.

All these numbers are freakin riduculous which is why most Americans just don't give a crap.

The Fed is the ultimate number and market chaser.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:07 | 2729873 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

can't believe anything comming from the BLSBS inc. report, they all majored in philosophy, I mean bullshit! I mean muppeteering!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:11 | 2729889 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Economic data' doesnt seem to be as nimbly steerable as a sport bike.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:12 | 2729890 EuroInhabitant
EuroInhabitant's picture

The seven blasts of the trumpets of Jericho marking the September October 2012 period will cause the “Dollar Wall’s” last sections and the walls which have protected the world as we know it since 1945 to collapse. The shock of the autumn 2008 will seem like a small summer storm compared to what will affect planet in several months.

LEAP/E2020, GEAB N°66, June 2012

http://bit.ly/KxTafI

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:26 | 2729941 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Another qoute from your link "Euroland has finally come out from its political torpor and short-termism since François Hollande’s election (1) as France’s president and the Greeks have just confirmed their willingness to resolve their problems within Euroland (2) thus contradicting all the Anglo-Saxon media and Euro sceptics’ “forecasts”. From now on, Euroland (in fact the EU minus the United Kingdom) will therefore be able to move forward and create a true project of political integration, economic efficiency and democratization over the 2012-"

 

So everything is hunky-dorri in Euprope I take it?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:30 | 2729952 EuroInhabitant
EuroInhabitant's picture

The euro has not collapsed and if September will be "black" as some pridct, why has a massive dump not taken place by now?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:41 | 2729992 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Debts still have to serviced in whatever denomination you are enslaved to.

Additionally, as we have seen with the Spain and other markets, where are banks going to put their money? They have been flooded with liquidity (of  which they don't want to actually loan out), but they need to put that money to use. Getting a few percent off of high grade bonds (which generally aren't European anymore) won't cut it. They take the higher risk and throw it into equities or derivatives.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:01 | 2730080 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Nein you frogs will not enslave the Germans with war reparations again the Euro is kaput.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:13 | 2729894 Pig Brotha
Pig Brotha's picture

Hear me, believe me, fear me.

BB

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:13 | 2729895 Waydown
Waydown's picture

Over at Marketwatch, apparently the flash PMI has been silenced away. I wonder why....

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:15 | 2729903 in-Credible Banker
in-Credible Banker's picture

So can any of you learned friends explain how it is possible that:

- everytime I am in the mall it is PACKED with shoppers toting bags bursting at the seams;

- any restaurant I go to is full....always a wait;

- every flight I am on for business is packed.  Airport concourses jammin',

- just drove up I-95 last Sunday, from Va. Beach to NY.  3 lanes of traffic bumper to bumper.  It things are so bad, where is EVERYONE going??

- Va. Beach hotels SOLD OUT.  Most at 3 bills a night.

I'm all for the "this is unsustainable" argument but I am not seeing it with my own eyes.  Any credible explanations???

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:17 | 2729909 EuroInhabitant
EuroInhabitant's picture

You only go to places where there is no crisis.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:18 | 2729914 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

-Only mall left in open in town.

-Only McDonalds left open in town

-Only 1 airline now servicing that route.

-Everyone ran out of gas on the freeway.

-All Beach Hotels condemned.  Only 1 left open.

Alternately, you could just be a troll.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:29 | 2729950 in-Credible Banker
in-Credible Banker's picture

Why would I troll?  When I was in Va. Beach there were scores of hotels all along the beach.  Did not see a single one boarded up wiith a "foreclosure auction next week" sign on it.  And - far as I know - all alternative routes out of town were not closed.  Nor were cars running out of gas.

 

All I am asking is....if it is actuially so bad, why does it look so good?  

 

??

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:34 | 2729967 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I know people who use their last $5 to go on vacation. Many people are still okay but some are just keeping up appearances.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:48 | 2730006 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

How about you do a survey of all those people you see at the beach?   ask them what their networth is and how they paid for their vacation?

When the government candy stops flowing will DC and Eastern hub be so affluent?

Most Americans still life by the mantra of spend more then you earn use one credit card to pay off the other card.

 

Try taking a trip to other parts of the country...Have you been to detriot lately?

Where I live in rural NC...not too far from a very small city I see lots of restaurants that have closed.  Sears has left town Circuit city gone(as everywhere) Hotel has been a ramada inn then a days inn then a holiday inn and now closed....so can we truely get a solid picture just by looking at our own little world?

 

The facade will end soon....about as quick as the bills football season ends every year.

 

I'm not a banker I work in the HR field.....when I list a job opening for a warehouse worker I get over a 100 responses for 1 position that is not a very desirable position...why is that?  why are people so desperate to finda job that doesn't pay well and is heavy and dirty?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:11 | 2730127 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Aside from a few dozen square miles of inner-city ghetto, Washington, DC's economy is doing pretty well.

Just like Versailles after WWI.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:11 | 2730129 Chump
Chump's picture

Why are you surprised?  Some people still have money to go out to eat and go to the beach.  In fact, beach traffic might be so strong because people are downsizing their vacations.  You know, "let's go to Va. beach this year we just can't afford a cruise."  It's a step above a staycation imo.

Honestly, if you're judging economic conditions by such specific and largely meaningless anecdotal evidence then I am just as correct in saying that doom is right around the corner.  Houses near me that have been on the market for 2+ years.  When I drive to work I am alone whereas 3 years ago I was cursing a few dozen idiots who didn't understand that it's 55MPH on country backroads.  I used to turn down work left and right just because there wasn't enough sunlight in the day to do it all.  Now?  Well, let's just say those days are over.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:13 | 2730139 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

  • in-Credible Banker
  • It looked good for a certain segment of society during the great depresssion and remember we have all the handouts now or you would see breadlines that made the last depression look tame

The depression is here — it’s just invisible

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-depression-is-here-its-just-invisible-2012-08-01?link=home_carousel

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:26 | 2730407 Overfed
Overfed's picture

I wouldn't call it invisible, it just isn't waving a big red flag under our noses. Yet.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:44 | 2730233 El
El's picture

It is called "wearing blinders." You see, when you put blinders on a horse, it can only see what is directly in front of it, like you. If you take off those blinders and look at the rest of the country, you will be able to see all of the puzzle pieces instead of just the one you have been focusing on. In that manner, you have a chance at actually seeing the real picture instead of just projecting what you think the picture might be based upon one piece.

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:32 | 2729955 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Only 1 airline now servicing that route...

ain't that the effen-A truth. :vomits:

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:33 | 2729961 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Any credible explanations???

1) you're in VA...the bubble of the nation.

2) You're a banker, so see what you want to see.

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:57 | 2730067 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Worse yet a Bills fan...

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:50 | 2730029 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

1) You live in a real shitty place

2) You have the worst timing in the world

3) Your reseach is very poor

 

I suggest it is a combination of all three. I just did a room rate for Virginia Beach at hotels.com for this weekend (check in Friay, checkout Monday) for one room, two adults.

Lowest rate Econo Lodge $57

Ramada $59

Days In $63

Red Roof $77

La Quinta $104

Quality Suites $109

Holiday Inn $127

Hilton $129

Hampton $139

Country Inn $142

Crowne Plaza $146

 

I could go on but obviously anyone paying $300+ a night is getting hosed.

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:17 | 2730104 MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

So glad for you, in-Credible Banker.  /sarc

 

Our local shopping mall has many spaces available for rent.  Six months ago when I went to purchase some work shoes, one section was a virtual ghost town.  Before the crisis, it was very difficult to find a parking space.  Six months ago, I found a space right towards the front.  I don't go to this mall but once or twice a year, so I don't know if this sitation has changed for the better or the worse. 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:13 | 2730363 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

during the depression anyone with a dollar was partying, dinner theaters were packed and rot gut liquor was selling non stop,during the 80's recession movie theaters were packed, bars and dance halls made a killing! so here we are, people are hooked on I crack,movie theaters are packed,and liquor sales are hitting the roof,. do you see a pattern here?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:19 | 2729917 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

everyday the blowhorn just never ceases to amaze me. More and more obvious they are just a paid PR arm of the fed and big corp. What a disaster they are. Really. How do make money running a hundred majic jak commercials an hour?? maybe "someone" else is paying your bills? hmm.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:24 | 2729934 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Bureau of Lies and Scams will keep tweaking the numbers until they look better. The baby-boomers are dropping off with many ill-prepared. So many 20 to 40 somethings are stuck with huge school loans and are under-employed. 

There needs to be a massive debt write-down/forgiveness.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:32 | 2729958 Jason T
Jason T's picture

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/W825RC1 says it all as far as gov't unemployment benefits.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:41 | 2729995 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Maybe it's about time for the do nothing house of representatives and the smooth talking do nothing resident of the white house to get off their soap boxes and collective lame asses and actually do something to mobilize the countrys workforce. There are plenty of meaningful and sustainable and sustaining projects that need doing right this red hot minute.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:12 | 2730133 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

You want the government to start a work program or something?

What are you, nuts?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:37 | 2730218 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

If you are asking me, yes I do. Instead of printing money and giving it to the bankers and CEO's why not pay workers to do things that need to be done. They are getting paid for doing nothing now. Does that make sense?

I realize that sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something, but all our representatives are doing worse than doing nothing, they are perpetrating the same planned obsolescence highly eco abusive fractional reserve debt loading crap that has gotten us into this pickle we're in now. Sure, I guess I'm nuts, but does that make you sane?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:37 | 2730440 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_Conservation_Corps

Enacting such a program won't happen while they are still trying to maintain the illusion of recovery.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:20 | 2730629 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The "money printing" that's going on is just being used to defend balance sheets and fund current government deficits.  They're not actually creating new FRNs that you or I could go buy bread with.

The first question to consider is, "what work should the unemployed be doing?"  In theory they could dig holes and fill them in, but that's really no better than just giving them money.

Whatever it is they start doing is going to harm any extant organization which performs the same tasks as a for-profit enterprise.  For example, say you wanted the unemployed filling potholes.  Anyone currently working on filling potholes would be added to the ranks of the unemployed.

How does that help?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:15 | 2730148 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

"Maybe it's about time for the do nothing house of representatives and the smooth talking do nothing resident of the white house to get off their soap boxes and collective lame asses and actually do something"

 

Isn't that an interesting thought. Actually not. I think that is the prevailing thought. How about the fear is "what those imbeciles will do"?

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:39 | 2730222 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Obviously what the 'Inbeciles' are doing now is not working and like it or not they do have all the power.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:01 | 2730081 Hohum
Hohum's picture

This initial claims number is a non-event.  YOY, not seasonally adjusted, down 30-35K for the last few weeks.  TSHTF when YOY claims (NSA) are HIGHER.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:05 | 2730100 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Well why go back to work before falling off benefits anyhow. Pay me not to work and I ain't workin. That's for sure.

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