Market Unhappy With Initial Claims Miss As 1.3 Million People Fall Off Extended Benefits In Past Year

Tyler Durden's picture

One month of positive economic surprises since the last FOMC may be all we get, now that a "majority" of FOMC members suddenly need a rapid deterioration in economic data to usher in the NEWER, MORE OPEN-ENDED QE. Initial claims was happy to comply: after posting several weeks in a row of "beats", claims has finally resumed "missing", as well as rising, posting an increase from last week's upward revised 368K print to 372K this week, worse than the expected improvement to 365K, and to a one month high. And with continuing claims missing too, the real story continues to be the steep fall off in those on extended benefits and EUC, which declined by a total of 48K in the past week, and down by about half a million in the last few months, and lower by 1.3 million in the past year. This is 1.3 million fewer consumers who can recycle Uncle Sam's dole back into the economy and iGadgets. The question is whether this minimal miss is enough to justify the FOMC doves' fears the much more QE is needed. Judging by the futures reaction to Bullard and claims, the answer is so far no, and in fact points to something very ominous: the closer the Fed (and ECB) come to actually doing something instead of talking about it, the more negative the market reaction seems to be. Woe to Bernanke or Draghi the second they finally have to do something instead of telling listeners to "believe them."


The ongoing collapse in former workers collecting Emergency Unemployment Compensation:

And Market response:

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Clueless Economist's picture

Bullard seems like the Fed member who has a clue. 

jekyll island's picture

Uhhhh, I'm sure the FOMC minutes reflect the independent nature of the regional banks and all the fed presidents came to their conclusions separately.  I am totally sure that their comments are and will continue to be unscripted and not be influenced by shadow government and central planning.  In addition, since gov't statistics are pure and cannot be adulterated, the current worsening of the labor and economic statistics has nothing to do with political expediency or hidden agendas because this is, after all, an election year. 

JPM Hater001's picture

Hang on folks.  Here comes that 13000 mark again...

Grab the bowl.

cbxer55's picture

Wake me up when it is time to don the DOW 10,000 hats again.

Hype Alert's picture

Trust me, I'm from the government and I'm here to help.

LMAOLORI's picture



jekyll island

I know that had to be meant to be funny and it is...


"He points out that the Fed said unless incoming data point to “substantial and sustainable” strengthening in the recovery more accommodation is likely to be “warranted fairly soon.”

Fairly soon is an interesting construction given that we are approximately 10 weeks away from the presidential election and nearly a year ago Congressional Republican leaders took the unprecedented step of writing Fed Chairman Bernanke “expressing their reservations” regarding additional Fed intervention. They wrote “the board should resist further extraordinary intervention in the U.S. economy,”

sessinpo's picture

"Bullard seems like the Fed member who has a clue. "


If Bullard had a clue, he'd be trying to dismantle the FRB. But like most people, the job pays to well.

Fish Gone Bad's picture

The real story is the complete capture of the media. 

LMAOLORI's picture



+1 on Bullard funny thing the market hasn't cared about jobless claims for months but now that they want more QE...


Dr. Engali's picture

Gold has a giant boner today...the morgue better do something about that.

dow2000's picture

Bull Trap, no new QE next week, and now every gold bug has shot their load trying to front run Jackson's Hole. Sub 1500 Gold is next.

dow2000's picture

Don't mean to be negative, I'm as big a bug as there is, just getting used to the Central Bank charade.

Son of Loki's picture

"It's those greedy speculators again."


Nancy P.

Peter Pan's picture

My eyes are beginning to glaze over with all these figures and their revisions. I just have to look around and see people's faces or hear their stories to know where we are headed.

surf0766's picture

No doubt these who were added are the Gm workers who built my Camaro with the bad torque converter. Nice job. I could not have expected any better quality any place in the world. Enjoy your paid time off.  When is the recall coming? Oh and the wait for parts is weeks because GM doesn't store parts anymore or something like that. Extra nice.  GM roaring back.  #1



CrimsonAvenger's picture

You bought a Government Motors car and now you're complaining about quality? That's like paying for a whore then complaining you didn't feel loved.

surf0766's picture

I wanted a new one to match the 69 pace we have

SemperFord's picture

GM has one of the most efficient V8 engines ever built. The LS engine was touched by the hand of God himself, it is compact, lightweight, efficient, easily modified and produces great power and torque. 

Who cares about who owns GM, the engine has only gotten better since the LS1, LS2, LS3, LS7, LSA, etc, so relax and this coming from a Ford guy.

jtmo3's picture

Gotta agree. You bought a GM car and find it amazing that their quality sucks? What were you thinking?

reader2010's picture

iPhone 5 is comnig soon.

toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Translation: more debt slaves are unable to get further into debt, which is bad for the money changers. The MASS ARRESTS are coming... the traitors to the Constitution will be tried and convicted....

Son of Loki's picture

When the Internet Sales tax hits (about 8% for most states) consumer spending may plummet even more. GDP will drop into the greater negative Abyss.

AynRandFan's picture

The hidden stimulus of paying folks to watch TV all day is disappearing.  Lots of moving parts, including a big spike in consumer spending according to Gallup's Daily Poll:

The unemployment picture won't get any better when the price of oil takes off again, which it is going to do as soon as the Fed does another monetary split.

surf0766's picture

Stimulas? We use stimulas to pay for commercials on msnbc.  That is where the stimulas went.    And oil, dam,  not $4.00 here again. There is no one eating out now.

It is $3.73 this morning. Houses are not selling and are being taken off the market or sold for 30% under asking.


buzzsaw99's picture

you don't have an oil well in your back yard?

Antifaschistische's picture

When no one has a job, initial jobless claims will be 0

This simple mathematical truism is ignored by the statistical deception artists.   Forget initial jobless claims.  Publish REAL TIME on a government dashboard

  • all active unemployement recipients
  • all "length of unemployement" stats for all recipients
  • all current employment statistics based on weekly tax receipts
  • weekly personal income tax receipts

We need to get out of the business of getting these dribling statistics and they should publish live, unedited, statistics on a website dashboard.

Vince Clortho's picture

You want to take all the fun out of it?

youngman's picture

This is the new normal....the good statistics have moved to Food Stamps and disibility roles.....that is a much better guage on the economy....and the morality of the economy...

Sauk Leader's picture

Just looked at the Application for SNAP in illinois, it conveniently comes with a voter registration form on the last page.

youngman's picture

Here is the funny you think they vote for the person who will get them a job......or vote for the person who will increase their SNAP payments...that is the future of our country

Sutton's picture

Communist president.  Health care plan making it insane for companies to hire.  NIRP allowing TBTF's to take control of all crops,minerals and energy markets, producing ever increasing cost  burdens  for non-welfare grubbing  Americans.  For those with jobs it is work more for less.

Either the floor collapses or we blow through the roof.

midtowng's picture

Since when do "communists" obey the marching orders of Wall Street?

midtowng's picture

99 weeks is officially over. It's now 73 weeks, but only for another 5 months.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"1.3 Million People Fall Off Extended Benefits In Past Year"

In economic war, unfortunately there is always some collateral damage.

<Pssst.....We'll have to destory the nation to save it.>

Meesohaawnee's picture

but but Fox was touting that 32 week claims under 400k.. yippeee!! green shutes!1

sessinpo's picture

"but but Fox was touting that 32 week claims under 400k.. yippeee!! green shutes!1"


How dare you say that. Fox has always been the right wing news media and Obama won't stand for it. They can't put out any story like that.

Thanks for the post. Funny.

poor fella's picture

Remember bad claims used to be 300k. That was bumped up to 325k about 2 years ago. We'll start hearing 400k soon (again).

Monthly jobs necessary to keep up with population was 150k - now we're hearing 125k mentioned over and over - I even heard cnbs mention 75k as being OK!! Spanish bond yields above 6% is real bad - no, make that 7%. But it could be 8% depending on where things end up in a month.

All these numbers are freakin riduculous which is why most Americans just don't give a crap.

The Fed is the ultimate number and market chaser.

caimen garou's picture

can't believe anything comming from the BLSBS inc. report, they all majored in philosophy, I mean bullshit! I mean muppeteering!

SheepDog-One's picture

'Economic data' doesnt seem to be as nimbly steerable as a sport bike.

EuroInhabitant's picture

The seven blasts of the trumpets of Jericho marking the September October 2012 period will cause the “Dollar Wall’s” last sections and the walls which have protected the world as we know it since 1945 to collapse. The shock of the autumn 2008 will seem like a small summer storm compared to what will affect planet in several months.

LEAP/E2020, GEAB N°66, June 2012

pazmaker's picture

Another qoute from your link "Euroland has finally come out from its political torpor and short-termism since François Hollande’s election (1) as France’s president and the Greeks have just confirmed their willingness to resolve their problems within Euroland (2) thus contradicting all the Anglo-Saxon media and Euro sceptics’ “forecasts”. From now on, Euroland (in fact the EU minus the United Kingdom) will therefore be able to move forward and create a true project of political integration, economic efficiency and democratization over the 2012-"


So everything is hunky-dorri in Euprope I take it?

EuroInhabitant's picture

The euro has not collapsed and if September will be "black" as some pridct, why has a massive dump not taken place by now?

sessinpo's picture

Debts still have to serviced in whatever denomination you are enslaved to.

Additionally, as we have seen with the Spain and other markets, where are banks going to put their money? They have been flooded with liquidity (of  which they don't want to actually loan out), but they need to put that money to use. Getting a few percent off of high grade bonds (which generally aren't European anymore) won't cut it. They take the higher risk and throw it into equities or derivatives.

Winston of Oceania's picture

Nein you frogs will not enslave the Germans with war reparations again the Euro is kaput.

Pig Brotha's picture

Hear me, believe me, fear me.


Waydown's picture

Over at Marketwatch, apparently the flash PMI has been silenced away. I wonder why....

in-Credible Banker's picture

So can any of you learned friends explain how it is possible that:

- everytime I am in the mall it is PACKED with shoppers toting bags bursting at the seams;

- any restaurant I go to is full....always a wait;

- every flight I am on for business is packed.  Airport concourses jammin',

- just drove up I-95 last Sunday, from Va. Beach to NY.  3 lanes of traffic bumper to bumper.  It things are so bad, where is EVERYONE going??

- Va. Beach hotels SOLD OUT.  Most at 3 bills a night.

I'm all for the "this is unsustainable" argument but I am not seeing it with my own eyes.  Any credible explanations???


EuroInhabitant's picture

You only go to places where there is no crisis.