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Market Unhappy With Initial Claims Miss As 1.3 Million People Fall Off Extended Benefits In Past Year
One month of positive economic surprises since the last FOMC may be all we get, now that a "majority" of FOMC members suddenly need a rapid deterioration in economic data to usher in the NEWER, MORE OPEN-ENDED QE. Initial claims was happy to comply: after posting several weeks in a row of "beats", claims has finally resumed "missing", as well as rising, posting an increase from last week's upward revised 368K print to 372K this week, worse than the expected improvement to 365K, and to a one month high. And with continuing claims missing too, the real story continues to be the steep fall off in those on extended benefits and EUC, which declined by a total of 48K in the past week, and down by about half a million in the last few months, and lower by 1.3 million in the past year. This is 1.3 million fewer consumers who can recycle Uncle Sam's dole back into the economy and iGadgets. The question is whether this minimal miss is enough to justify the FOMC doves' fears the much more QE is needed. Judging by the futures reaction to Bullard and claims, the answer is so far no, and in fact points to something very ominous: the closer the Fed (and ECB) come to actually doing something instead of talking about it, the more negative the market reaction seems to be. Woe to Bernanke or Draghi the second they finally have to do something instead of telling listeners to "believe them."
Claims:
The ongoing collapse in former workers collecting Emergency Unemployment Compensation:
And Market response:
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Bullard seems like the Fed member who has a clue.
Uhhhh, I'm sure the FOMC minutes reflect the independent nature of the regional banks and all the fed presidents came to their conclusions separately. I am totally sure that their comments are and will continue to be unscripted and not be influenced by shadow government and central planning. In addition, since gov't statistics are pure and cannot be adulterated, the current worsening of the labor and economic statistics has nothing to do with political expediency or hidden agendas because this is, after all, an election year.
Hang on folks. Here comes that 13000 mark again...
Grab the bowl.
Wake me up when it is time to don the DOW 10,000 hats again.
Trust me, I'm from the government and I'm here to help.
jekyll island
I know that had to be meant to be funny and it is...
"He points out that the Fed said unless incoming data point to “substantial and sustainable” strengthening in the recovery more accommodation is likely to be “warranted fairly soon.”
Fairly soon is an interesting construction given that we are approximately 10 weeks away from the presidential election and nearly a year ago Congressional Republican leaders took the unprecedented step of writing Fed Chairman Bernanke “expressing their reservations” regarding additional Fed intervention. They wrote “the board should resist further extraordinary intervention in the U.S. economy,”
http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/08/22/did-fed-telegraph-qe3-at-last-meeting?ref=hp
"Bullard seems like the Fed member who has a clue. "
If Bullard had a clue, he'd be trying to dismantle the FRB. But like most people, the job pays to well.
The real story is the complete capture of the media.
+1 on Bullard funny thing the market hasn't cared about jobless claims for months but now that they want more QE...
Gold has a giant boner today...the morgue better do something about that.
margin hike margin hike
Bull Trap, no new QE next week, and now every gold bug has shot their load trying to front run Jackson's Hole. Sub 1500 Gold is next.
Don't mean to be negative, I'm as big a bug as there is, just getting used to the Central Bank charade.
"It's those greedy speculators again."
Nancy P.
My eyes are beginning to glaze over with all these figures and their revisions. I just have to look around and see people's faces or hear their stories to know where we are headed.
No doubt these who were added are the Gm workers who built my Camaro with the bad torque converter. Nice job. I could not have expected any better quality any place in the world. Enjoy your paid time off. When is the recall coming? Oh and the wait for parts is weeks because GM doesn't store parts anymore or something like that. Extra nice. GM roaring back. #1
You bought a Government Motors car and now you're complaining about quality? That's like paying for a whore then complaining you didn't feel loved.
I wanted a new one to match the 69 pace we have
GM has one of the most efficient V8 engines ever built. The LS engine was touched by the hand of God himself, it is compact, lightweight, efficient, easily modified and produces great power and torque.
Who cares about who owns GM, the engine has only gotten better since the LS1, LS2, LS3, LS7, LSA, etc, so relax and this coming from a Ford guy.
Gotta agree. You bought a GM car and find it amazing that their quality sucks? What were you thinking?
iPhone 5 is comnig soon.
That will suck too
Translation: more debt slaves are unable to get further into debt, which is bad for the money changers. The MASS ARRESTS are coming... the traitors to the Constitution will be tried and convicted.... http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/
When the Internet Sales tax hits (about 8% for most states) consumer spending may plummet even more. GDP will drop into the greater negative Abyss.
The hidden stimulus of paying folks to watch TV all day is disappearing. Lots of moving parts, including a big spike in consumer spending according to Gallup's Daily Poll: http://www.gallup.com/poll/112723/Gallup-Daily-US-Consumer-Spending.aspx
The unemployment picture won't get any better when the price of oil takes off again, which it is going to do as soon as the Fed does another monetary split.
Stimulas? We use stimulas to pay for commercials on msnbc. That is where the stimulas went. And oil, dam, not $4.00 here again. There is no one eating out now.
It is $3.73 this morning. Houses are not selling and are being taken off the market or sold for 30% under asking.
you don't have an oil well in your back yard?
When no one has a job, initial jobless claims will be 0
This simple mathematical truism is ignored by the statistical deception artists. Forget initial jobless claims. Publish REAL TIME on a government dashboard
We need to get out of the business of getting these dribling statistics and they should publish live, unedited, statistics on a website dashboard.
You want to take all the fun out of it?
This is the new normal....the good statistics have moved to Food Stamps and disibility roles.....that is a much better guage on the economy....and the morality of the economy...
Just looked at the Application for SNAP in illinois, it conveniently comes with a voter registration form on the last page.
Here is the funny thing...do you think they vote for the person who will get them a job......or vote for the person who will increase their SNAP payments...that is the future of our country
Communist president. Health care plan making it insane for companies to hire. NIRP allowing TBTF's to take control of all crops,minerals and energy markets, producing ever increasing cost burdens for non-welfare grubbing Americans. For those with jobs it is work more for less.
Either the floor collapses or we blow through the roof.
Since when do "communists" obey the marching orders of Wall Street?
99 weeks is officially over. It's now 73 weeks, but only for another 5 months.
"1.3 Million People Fall Off Extended Benefits In Past Year"
In economic war, unfortunately there is always some collateral damage.
<Pssst.....We'll have to destory the nation to save it.>
but but Fox was touting that 32 week claims under 400k.. yippeee!! green shutes!1
"but but Fox was touting that 32 week claims under 400k.. yippeee!! green shutes!1"
How dare you say that. Fox has always been the right wing news media and Obama won't stand for it. They can't put out any story like that.
Thanks for the post. Funny.
Remember bad claims used to be 300k. That was bumped up to 325k about 2 years ago. We'll start hearing 400k soon (again).
Monthly jobs necessary to keep up with population was 150k - now we're hearing 125k mentioned over and over - I even heard cnbs mention 75k as being OK!! Spanish bond yields above 6% is real bad - no, make that 7%. But it could be 8% depending on where things end up in a month.
All these numbers are freakin riduculous which is why most Americans just don't give a crap.
The Fed is the ultimate number and market chaser.
can't believe anything comming from the BLSBS inc. report, they all majored in philosophy, I mean bullshit! I mean muppeteering!
'Economic data' doesnt seem to be as nimbly steerable as a sport bike.
The seven blasts of the trumpets of Jericho marking the September October 2012 period will cause the “Dollar Wall’s” last sections and the walls which have protected the world as we know it since 1945 to collapse. The shock of the autumn 2008 will seem like a small summer storm compared to what will affect planet in several months.
LEAP/E2020, GEAB N°66, June 2012
http://bit.ly/KxTafI
Another qoute from your link "Euroland has finally come out from its political torpor and short-termism since François Hollande’s election (1) as France’s president and the Greeks have just confirmed their willingness to resolve their problems within Euroland (2) thus contradicting all the Anglo-Saxon media and Euro sceptics’ “forecasts”. From now on, Euroland (in fact the EU minus the United Kingdom) will therefore be able to move forward and create a true project of political integration, economic efficiency and democratization over the 2012-"
So everything is hunky-dorri in Euprope I take it?
The euro has not collapsed and if September will be "black" as some pridct, why has a massive dump not taken place by now?
Debts still have to serviced in whatever denomination you are enslaved to.
Additionally, as we have seen with the Spain and other markets, where are banks going to put their money? They have been flooded with liquidity (of which they don't want to actually loan out), but they need to put that money to use. Getting a few percent off of high grade bonds (which generally aren't European anymore) won't cut it. They take the higher risk and throw it into equities or derivatives.
Nein you frogs will not enslave the Germans with war reparations again the Euro is kaput.
Hear me, believe me, fear me.
BB
Over at Marketwatch, apparently the flash PMI has been silenced away. I wonder why....
So can any of you learned friends explain how it is possible that:
- everytime I am in the mall it is PACKED with shoppers toting bags bursting at the seams;
- any restaurant I go to is full....always a wait;
- every flight I am on for business is packed. Airport concourses jammin',
- just drove up I-95 last Sunday, from Va. Beach to NY. 3 lanes of traffic bumper to bumper. It things are so bad, where is EVERYONE going??
- Va. Beach hotels SOLD OUT. Most at 3 bills a night.
I'm all for the "this is unsustainable" argument but I am not seeing it with my own eyes. Any credible explanations???
You only go to places where there is no crisis.
-Only mall left in open in town.
-Only McDonalds left open in town
-Only 1 airline now servicing that route.
-Everyone ran out of gas on the freeway.
-All Beach Hotels condemned. Only 1 left open.
Alternately, you could just be a troll.
Why would I troll? When I was in Va. Beach there were scores of hotels all along the beach. Did not see a single one boarded up wiith a "foreclosure auction next week" sign on it. And - far as I know - all alternative routes out of town were not closed. Nor were cars running out of gas.
All I am asking is....if it is actuially so bad, why does it look so good?
??
I know people who use their last $5 to go on vacation. Many people are still okay but some are just keeping up appearances.
How about you do a survey of all those people you see at the beach? ask them what their networth is and how they paid for their vacation?
When the government candy stops flowing will DC and Eastern hub be so affluent?
Most Americans still life by the mantra of spend more then you earn use one credit card to pay off the other card.
Try taking a trip to other parts of the country...Have you been to detriot lately?
Where I live in rural NC...not too far from a very small city I see lots of restaurants that have closed. Sears has left town Circuit city gone(as everywhere) Hotel has been a ramada inn then a days inn then a holiday inn and now closed....so can we truely get a solid picture just by looking at our own little world?
The facade will end soon....about as quick as the bills football season ends every year.
I'm not a banker I work in the HR field.....when I list a job opening for a warehouse worker I get over a 100 responses for 1 position that is not a very desirable position...why is that? why are people so desperate to finda job that doesn't pay well and is heavy and dirty?
Aside from a few dozen square miles of inner-city ghetto, Washington, DC's economy is doing pretty well.
Just like Versailles after WWI.
Why are you surprised? Some people still have money to go out to eat and go to the beach. In fact, beach traffic might be so strong because people are downsizing their vacations. You know, "let's go to Va. beach this year we just can't afford a cruise." It's a step above a staycation imo.
Honestly, if you're judging economic conditions by such specific and largely meaningless anecdotal evidence then I am just as correct in saying that doom is right around the corner. Houses near me that have been on the market for 2+ years. When I drive to work I am alone whereas 3 years ago I was cursing a few dozen idiots who didn't understand that it's 55MPH on country backroads. I used to turn down work left and right just because there wasn't enough sunlight in the day to do it all. Now? Well, let's just say those days are over.
The depression is here — it’s just invisible
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-depression-is-here-its-just-invisible-2012-08-01?link=home_carousel
I wouldn't call it invisible, it just isn't waving a big red flag under our noses. Yet.
It is called "wearing blinders." You see, when you put blinders on a horse, it can only see what is directly in front of it, like you. If you take off those blinders and look at the rest of the country, you will be able to see all of the puzzle pieces instead of just the one you have been focusing on. In that manner, you have a chance at actually seeing the real picture instead of just projecting what you think the picture might be based upon one piece.
Only 1 airline now servicing that route...
ain't that the effen-A truth. :vomits:
Any credible explanations???
1) you're in VA...the bubble of the nation.
2) You're a banker, so see what you want to see.
Worse yet a Bills fan...
1) You live in a real shitty place
2) You have the worst timing in the world
3) Your reseach is very poor
I suggest it is a combination of all three. I just did a room rate for Virginia Beach at hotels.com for this weekend (check in Friay, checkout Monday) for one room, two adults.
Lowest rate Econo Lodge $57
Ramada $59
Days In $63
Red Roof $77
La Quinta $104
Quality Suites $109
Holiday Inn $127
Hilton $129
Hampton $139
Country Inn $142
Crowne Plaza $146
I could go on but obviously anyone paying $300+ a night is getting hosed.
So glad for you, in-Credible Banker. /sarc
Our local shopping mall has many spaces available for rent. Six months ago when I went to purchase some work shoes, one section was a virtual ghost town. Before the crisis, it was very difficult to find a parking space. Six months ago, I found a space right towards the front. I don't go to this mall but once or twice a year, so I don't know if this sitation has changed for the better or the worse.
during the depression anyone with a dollar was partying, dinner theaters were packed and rot gut liquor was selling non stop,during the 80's recession movie theaters were packed, bars and dance halls made a killing! so here we are, people are hooked on I crack,movie theaters are packed,and liquor sales are hitting the roof,. do you see a pattern here?
everyday the blowhorn just never ceases to amaze me. More and more obvious they are just a paid PR arm of the fed and big corp. What a disaster they are. Really. How do make money running a hundred majic jak commercials an hour?? maybe "someone" else is paying your bills? hmm.
The Bureau of Lies and Scams will keep tweaking the numbers until they look better. The baby-boomers are dropping off with many ill-prepared. So many 20 to 40 somethings are stuck with huge school loans and are under-employed.
There needs to be a massive debt write-down/forgiveness.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/W825RC1 says it all as far as gov't unemployment benefits.
And jobless claims are BACK TO DEC 2011 Levels!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/08/23/fizzies-recovery-jobless-claims-rise-to-december-2011-levels/
Maybe it's about time for the do nothing house of representatives and the smooth talking do nothing resident of the white house to get off their soap boxes and collective lame asses and actually do something to mobilize the countrys workforce. There are plenty of meaningful and sustainable and sustaining projects that need doing right this red hot minute.
You want the government to start a work program or something?
What are you, nuts?
If you are asking me, yes I do. Instead of printing money and giving it to the bankers and CEO's why not pay workers to do things that need to be done. They are getting paid for doing nothing now. Does that make sense?
I realize that sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something, but all our representatives are doing worse than doing nothing, they are perpetrating the same planned obsolescence highly eco abusive fractional reserve debt loading crap that has gotten us into this pickle we're in now. Sure, I guess I'm nuts, but does that make you sane?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_Conservation_Corps
Enacting such a program won't happen while they are still trying to maintain the illusion of recovery.
The "money printing" that's going on is just being used to defend balance sheets and fund current government deficits. They're not actually creating new FRNs that you or I could go buy bread with.
The first question to consider is, "what work should the unemployed be doing?" In theory they could dig holes and fill them in, but that's really no better than just giving them money.
Whatever it is they start doing is going to harm any extant organization which performs the same tasks as a for-profit enterprise. For example, say you wanted the unemployed filling potholes. Anyone currently working on filling potholes would be added to the ranks of the unemployed.
How does that help?
"Maybe it's about time for the do nothing house of representatives and the smooth talking do nothing resident of the white house to get off their soap boxes and collective lame asses and actually do something"
Isn't that an interesting thought. Actually not. I think that is the prevailing thought. How about the fear is "what those imbeciles will do"?
Obviously what the 'Inbeciles' are doing now is not working and like it or not they do have all the power.
This initial claims number is a non-event. YOY, not seasonally adjusted, down 30-35K for the last few weeks. TSHTF when YOY claims (NSA) are HIGHER.
Well why go back to work before falling off benefits anyhow. Pay me not to work and I ain't workin. That's for sure.