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Market Unsure How To Trade FOMC
It's nothing if not choppy. Treasuries are selling off now (having initially oscillated) and the initial 'upgrade' of the economy juiced stocks but that has been faded. The DXY is surging higher as AUD, JPY, and EUR are losing the most ground against the USD. Commodities are feeling the lack-of-QE pain with Silver and Gold down quite hard. It seems equities remain the most confused - do we follow Treasuries (inflation/QE-off) and rally or do we follow USD/Commodity (QE-off) and drop? Based on pre-FOMC correlations, risk should be coming off and we note VIX gapped down under 15% and then back up to almost 16% now.
Commodities are taking the brunt of the Fed's less than dovish stance...
as are Treasuries, now 3-4bps higher post FOMC with the long-end underperforming (steepening).
Broadly speaking risk is off (as seen here by our CONTEXT proxy) but correlations are likely shifting to this new regime (though do we highlight the fact that the last day or two, risk sensitivity to the USD and Treasuries has become notably higher and less so for carry FX crosses specifically.
So - in summary (spot the odd one out) - Treasuries +4-5bps, Gold/Silver -1%, USD +0.4%, and ES unchanged!
Charts: Bloomberg
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Brent in Euro's hit a new high today! Risk On...
Everything is fine in the psychopathic world...
Bernanke will never mention QE or any thing like it. The FED has figured out how to monetize without talking about it. No reason to ever change until the wheels fly off.
JPM raises div; authorizes buyback.
USA! USA!! USA!!!
mild price action in gold...silver holding up, Pt positive and past gold now...
maybe some of the terror luster will bleed off of Au, but oil and Pt tell a tale of some sort of business activity rebound into the overhead oil supply curve.
The growing mothballing of nuclear power plants make NG a potential blockbuster spec trade...let's just hope they don't shut these things down totally because they will need to very abruptly restart them or else face outages in the near future
just an algo stuff and puke fest...all at once. fucking computers don't know what the hell to do. Good flash crash day if you ask me.
Looking quite the opposite (as usual)
Sheep waiting for bernanke to tell them moahhahahahha
Mr. Beard is the sheep. The boss has no name.
'U.S.' and 'Treasuries'...
If that aint an oxymoron - i dont know what is.
'Jumbo Shrimp'... is another...
......Smart politicians
Biggie Smalls
Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve
...sanitary napkins
Shit just buy eveything Buy Buy Buy!!!!! There is a Bernank guarantee.
Just buy the fucking dip!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU
I'm sure some far more insightful people than I will analyze the situation, but The Bernank isn't really in a box, IMO, but he has candidates running for re-election this year in a very bad box.
"That's one healthy looking market you got there, Ferd!" says Frank Farkel to Ferd Berfel.
And, Sparkle Farkel. "Hi!"
<Soft yet sinister voice from a darkened recess of an undisclosed location>
And scene:
What market?
The one about to crater right into Mitt's lap. We'll all be shouting Mor-money! Mor-money!
And the blind bear strikes again... "Silver and Gold down quite hard" Are we talking about the metals traded on the Crimex? Down hard? $7 off the gold price is "down hard"?
silver is not getting blowtorched today...gold down a whole 1% ZOMG
does this look like -7$ to you? http://comparegoldprices.com/
panic buy on the Dow whilst USD bids. EUR selling...momo market and last gasp. very overbought. should sell towards the close if the oil price stays high
You'd sure think so, but then nothing makes a bit of sense. For all we know Bernank sits hitting the buy button for DOW 14,300 for his 'legacy' as the man who reinflated the great '08 bubble.
thats the worry. cept he mentioned inflation. he needs to get that oil price down which he kinda was trying to do, but instead gold sells and USD is bid with oil hahaha. crazy.
SkyNet is still self-aware. Re-programming begins on boot.
Do not adjust your set.
its the drug addict trying to figure out where the next liquidity fix is going to come from........
initial reaction? buy Apple!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
no sell Apple.......................
jesus...what to do?
how the hell are AAPL shares nearing 600 already? That's some crazy bubble territory. I don't even want to think about touching it. Not long, not short, no options, nothing. I don't trust it worth a damn.
There is no trend. Until retail is coming back to buying stocks, they've got nothing. Retail investors are still healing and licking their wounds. Now inflation is going to eat away their savings faster than they can earn it back.
Groundhog Day market for a few more months.
I think everything is on hold until after elections.
Lots of events to keep us entertained until than.
It`s what Jim Rogers thinks. He`s saying Obama will feed us candy untill elections and then crash boom bang. Iran gangbanging, high oil prices and all the good stuff.
Of course if Obama manages to contain all the nastiness in Europe and put a leash on Israel. Not an easy task.
What market?
Retail investors? You mean the people too stupid to see they are participating in their own enslavement, like most of the people on ZH?
If you are participating.... A. You dont have the right to bitch about anything. B. You're a hypocritical traitor, and deserve what you get when the time comes.
Down with DC and Wall St!
HAHAHAHAAH awesome material!!!!!!
Of course realizing every human on the planet is a participant willingly or not.
Keep up the good work.
and ftr the retail investor has been out of the equity markets for the latest melt up.
Down with ignorance and sheer and total bliss.
They need the retail investor to come back. Plain and simple. All that HFT driven volume and banks loaded with equities is a setup to entice and sell to retail.
Gold and silver - smack down every time it catches up drift.
Yield on bonds is non-existent.
Investors are scratching their heads and not sure what to do with their cash.
ALL INVESTOR MEDIA PROPAGANDA IS BEGGING PEOPLE TO GO AND BUY EQUITIES. None of the investment squak boxes are offering any alternatives. You know, like investing into something that stores value and earns income at the same time.
INSTEAD, investment media propaganda is saying "HEY LOOK J6P!!! DOW GREEN!!!! S&P GREEN!!! GREECE IS FIXED!!! BUY, BUY, BUY!!!".
The 90's boiler room clowns are now the CNBC, BNN etc anchors.
Betting against the Fed is participation. Betting on the Fed is participation. And the decision to "not participate" and let TPTB control the value of your cash/assets and control oil/food prices and whether or not you have a job in 2013, is PARTICIPATION.
A decision to do nothing is an act with consequences.
All individual action is participation of some kind. Unless you have wandered off into the woods with nothing but the shirt on your back, you are participating in the system. If you have a job, a house, a car, go to the grocery store, you are participating in the same system.
That being said, many of those on ZH are participating in the markets by doing exactly what Bernank&Friends don't want them to do, by buying gold and making any effort to see through the manipulation of markets. Are market participants enslaved by the system simply because they know how the system works and choose, with full knowledge, to participate? I would not call that enslavement. Bernanke probably wishes that anyone without faith in the Fed would stop playing in the markets. It would give his fat finger a rest.
You can participate in a system and still be working to change that system. (or break it)
I will agree with you though, that anyone playing in these rigged markets should expect to get screwed. If they are gambling with money they can't afford to lose, its their choice.
I feel comfortable selling now and won't be surprised to be much lower in a week or two.
Good idea...no sense in chasing pennies in front of a steamroller here. I have a feeling the day the selling avalanches there will be no way out.
I feel comfortable telling you to fuck yourself, because you shouldnt be in that farce of a casino anyway. I love how everyone here is a rebel.... but how is apple doing?
gold gets slammed oil stays bid? that is out of whack on USD buying. market looks unstable.
Unstable? Market looks like a drunken toddler.
Someone please cue up, People Get Ready.
haha
not that you know what a drunken toddler looks like
....i hope?
I was one.
Seen this moves before on no QE disappoinment. Standard headline like "Market confused like a slapped crack whore on no QE bonanza from Fed"
....'yet still enough hope of future crack rocks to rise up equities a bit more anyway'...
I've got a derivative insurance for those bogus CDS ya'll bought.
For Sale now, get'em while they're cheap.
march madness starts early, boo - yaaa
Mr. Market keeps telling Mr. Main Street to buy stocks. Mr. Main Street keeps replying, "With what?"
Desperately trying to get 'retail' to buy the pump off the FED's hands. Everyones broke though.
i know. Jamie Dimon forget to leave the peasants enough to buy the shit stocks at the top of the peak.....
Mr Main St is going for his machete, rope, and cocktails; in reply.
It is time to bring Main St justice to the Wall St and DC crooks, the pigs wont, and it is our right. Hang'em all.
What Main St do you live on? My Main St. is empty when Dancing with the Stars is on, and all I can see are campaign posters on lawns begging for more hope and change.
Green arrow for wanting to hang the bastards, though. Even if just you and I show up for the hanging.
With borrowed money dude!
Can I buy stocks with my EBT card?
Theyre probably working on that right now. EBT enabled ETrade accounts.
Either you're with The Bernank and Dow 36,000/NASDapple 10,000 (even if only one out of every 10 stocks ultimately gain on the way there), or you're against him.
Terristy people...
#JonCorzine&JosephKonyInnocenceProject
Dat's the snAPPL. Teats up!
There, fixed it.
Today saw a wild market, but anyone who hasn't watched intra-day and will only see the end result, will think, green's a go!
Some HFT/ALGO programming kid just got fired!
Baaaa, da da da dum, Baaaa, da da da dum, Baaaa, da da da da daaaa, daaaa ...
"Help us Obi Ben Bernanke. You are our only hope."
"Help us Obi Ben Bernanke. You are our only hope."
LOL ...and I just call him Bubbles!
Suddenly, a dark presence comes striding into the market ...
The HFT machines suddenly whir down to silence in the presence of
Darth Dimon!
He looks over the NYSE ominously and says,
"I find your lack of faith disturbing."
He then raises his hand further and further into the air as the HFT machines scream into warp drive and their overheated, colocated processors begin to suck the oxygen from the trading floor ...
AUD is quickly approaching LOD. That bodes well for commodities.....
Looking at this market I always thought that there could be a "Super Rally" in the dollar.
1) Bonds sell off
2) High interest rates pressure stocks and commodities lower - mo money to $
3) Risk currencies CAN, AUZ, etc sell off due to Asian contraction - mo money to $
4) Debt defaults reduce dollar liquidity
5) Dollar preserves capitol
Problem with that is you need to depend on about a 1% daily rise for the 'dollar' to preserve any value.
Buy rumor, sell the news day?
When equities are confused they do the following.
They shut the fuck up, pound a miller high life, and head higher!
Bernanke treats us all like his own personal guinea pig! We're just one big science experiment to him!
"Market holding steady so that CNBC crew can sell the news for small profit before end of day crash"
30 year is in technical breakdown territory if the Fed doesn't intervene. It has a very nice daily distribution pattern followed by a big break.
I'm sure they'll twist their way over to that end soon, meanwhile Sack needs to step in here, 3pm is now.
This FED statement has Dow 14,000 written all over it. What is taking so long?
JPM ups dividend and 15B repurchase. Market is like a badly orchestrated sitcom
This shit is comic releaf. Now the markets are trying to force bond money into equities. They tried the retail investor, and now they want the bond investor. They got nothing and liked it!
If the stress tests look so good, then the banks will start lending on their shadow inventory? Ya right!
Only 10 points away from 1400 on the S&P.
Just...sayin'.
I'm jumping in the freezer. Wake me up in May!
Why even question Helicopter Ben.....foreign CBs are buying US equities....Ben is going for the full court press...on sanity.
Welcome to the NWO...bitchez...just buy, buy, buy like Ben and his pack of smirking hyenas are telling you to....they know what is best for you and humanity for that matter.
Fricken unbelievable.
bear trap
Market has lit the Crack pipe too.
Tyler:
The market knows exactly how to trae the FOMC; you don't have a clue how to assess without your big bear goggles on.
ZH, Tyler et al who hide anonymously:
With all due respect and with thanks for some very informative posts, but if anyone acted on your the 3-yr bearish rants, not only have they missed out on a massive rally, but perhaps have gotten clipped on the short side.
Zero Hedge definitely has a bearish bias which all should take note. Yes, ZH has some great posts, but it appears that Tyler and ZH literally prays for the worst, dying to be proven correct with a massive correction rather than trying to balance the risks to the rewards.
Say what you will about the bulls (I am not a long-term bull). Say what you will about central bankers manipulating the markets and the algos exacerbating the situation on central bankers' coattails (I disdain both). Say what you will about 'manipulated' and 'messaged' gov't statistics. The fact of the matter is this: US equities are up huge since 2009 despite the doomsday sayers' warnings. In fact, if one were to take ZH with a grain of salt and went the very opposite direction of his ever-changing tones, you might have been rewarded: the more bearish ZH is, it appears the greater the chance an above market return. ZH and the S&P might have the most precise inverse correlation I’ve seen.
Tyler -- I'll call you by the name that which you hide behind -- thank you for your posts, but it's awfully apparent that you have a bias and remain anonymous for whatever (dark) reason.
Én vagyok Monoki. Én is magyar vagyok. ??????,? ????? ??? ??????. ? ???? ????. Vicces ZH nem ismeri az orosz.
Good thing you put that "I am not a long-term bull" caveat in your diatribe, SockPuppetv2.07, lest your whole argument would have fell by the credibility wayside.
/s
Your logic is based on the premise that investors would have taken all their money out of equities in 2007 or 2008 and had cash in their trading accounts.
Few investors I know did. Most got clobbered AND on top of that lost wealth, or worse lost income.
Equity prices have recovered, in some cases they've performed better than prior to the crash.
Good for you if had the fortune to be in cash in 2008 and good luck if you were picking the winners since then.
How much of the money that found its way into equities came from the housing bubble between '02 and '07?
The crash vaporized that money AND created negative equity in housing which is still on the bank's balance sheets!
Despite that the equity market is going up. The money is not coming from ca. 35% of home-owners who have the misfortune of being underwater on their mortgage. So where is the money coming from? Look no further than the increased national debt by several trillions and the bloated FED balance sheet.
The money was not earned in the economy and reinvested into equities.
It's bogus. All of it!
Just to be open minded for a moment and listen to Monoki....
if someone had the cash (by getting out in 2008) and sat on it doing nothing, its purchasing power is now eroded and has not kept up even slightly with inflation
if however, that person put the cash into equities and rode the election year cycle, although they can buy a little less of everythign with those gains, its still more than they could have bought with the cash.
Of course that all depends on having gotten out, in, then back out of equities at the perfect time, in a blatantly rigged market. So Monoki is ignoring the fact that most would have lost their asses due to the timing, regardless of the stock market gains. Furthermore, more WILL probably lose, if they don't get out in time again, should the real state of affairs be seen even partially for what it is. Monoki may be one of them.
Its easy to say that what someone predicted did or did not happen in retrospect. However, can you stay in these markets and get out at the perfect time, Monoki? I think what ZH has been pointing out is that the equities UP has been based on faith in unicorns, and that the DOW might hit 52K in nominal terms (see post from a month or so ago), but its still riding on the backs of unicorns and the gains you get won't buy you anything real. He is also pointing out that our ponzi system depends on getting the credit bubble going again, but if people can't buy any more than they could in 2008, it doesn't expand the bubble.
Tyler is showing you what IS and letting you decide whether or not to play the equities game. If you are a perfect market timer, then more power to you. But if not, you have been warned.
I would offer up a SWAG that at least 85%, and as many as 95%, don't make it out in time to avoid a loss.
Rinse, wash, lather, repeat.
Such is the nature of the greatest & most rigged casino ever devised.
Yo Mo - You sound like a NWO supporter. It's all good as long as equities go up...Fed printing, shadowy foreign FX swaps, buying of MBS, essentially tthe complete bifurcation of the Fed's balance sheet....will present no socio-economic issues at all.
Additionally, you exhibit the NWO left wing facsist tendencies by clamoring for openness from the author (Tyler) = the messenger, however you do not ask for the same openess from the Fed or TBTF banks, or the ECB, who are spending taxpayer monies.
The relatively stable Western Civilizations were not developed on CB printing fiat currency. Death and mayhem have followed when countries have been as monocular (no pun intended) to print fiat currency.
Perhaps "Tyler" hides behind his name....but you Sir hide behind your true aspirations...NWO bitchez...
P.S. - Nice hat.
I got 25% returns last year avoiding all the real-risk assets identified by ZH and myself without ZH help. Risk-reduction's the name of the game & counter-party risk is a big part of that.
By all means, trade some options for paper profits. I do. But be careful. Trading into the "rally" is a sucker's game. The instant it's clear people believe in a rally there IS no rally. It's vaporized. Schroedinger's Charts.
"Based on pre-FOMC correlations, risk should be coming off and we note VIX gapped down under 15% and then back up to almost 16% now."
Quite the ride. A morning gap down of over 10% followed promptly by a ramp straight up of over 14%
VIX has been acting hinky for weeks now. Some of that "hinkyness" can be explained fairly easily by routine factors but much of it can not.
I also think it quite unlikely that the VIX would move sideways from here for any extended period.
Cheers!
Curtis
OK Benny, if things are THAT good how raising interest rates or taking QE3 off the table or taking some of the fluff out of the market or...?
Sorry, you WON'T?
DavidC
Today is exactly one year since my long term silver spot price prediction chart was created and published on March 13th, 2011, here:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...
Disregard most of the text, please, except advice for silver buying in the end:
[quote]So, keep silver, but You can buy or repurchase it cheaper during 2011-early 2012 than now. [/quote]
I will take the opportunity given by this anniversary to analyze the charts accuracy during and over one year.
One year ago, on Friday, March 11, 2011, Silver closing spot price was 35,9USD/Oz. In my chart on March 13,2011 I predicted that Silver closing spot price on March 13th, 2012 will be 32,5 USD/oz. Today it is 33,2 as I write. So the accuracy of this END-to-END prediction over one year period is about 2 %.
Here You can see the shorter term part of the same chart ( red color) with comparison to actual silver spot prices over the year period. I would like to suggest what would have been stacker actions he/she would have followed the chart:
http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7204/6777724090_40679067e1_o.png
1) He/she would never had bought silver above 32,5 USD but waited until it falls below it-except if he wanted to make short term profit on the peaks and troughs in April and August-September by going long before the peak and short at or after the peak.
2) He/she would have bought like hell in October 2011 when closing price was in the range 30-32
3) He/she would have been happily surprised by drop in December -January 2012 and buying with all his money when price went even below 30 USD
4) He/she would have never fallen into traps of April , August-September, October -November and February 2012 excitement and would not have bought above 32,5 -sold may be to make profit and bough back later.
Of course, no one is able to believe in any chart so much, especially from an unknown source, but some reliance on it after it had proved quite accurate ( don't by above 32,5) would have helped after September crash.
But now the scary part comes to test the chart- the fast raise and drop in silver which according to original chart should start already on April 1st 2012, and reach peak by October 2012, OR, according to the same chart that was little bit tuned (green) in October 17th, 2011- slower and later ( from mid June 2012, with a real sharp rise starting mid September, double top November-December 2012).
http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6234/6280601222_40413db4b9_o.jpg
From both charts, I would say start to believe its going to hit 60-70 in 2012 once its over 45-50 But there will be a crash again, so buying above 45-50 without intent to sell at the peak is not advisable.
Can't wait to see what will happen. I do not trade, but have bought some physical gold to test own charting. If I am as lucky as usual in financial matters, I will loose money. Hope that helps.
All my prediction charts are in one place here:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2814/ivars-charts
risk off is saved by jpm's share repurchase.
http://www.cnhedge.com/
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
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