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Market Unsure How To Trade FOMC

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It's nothing if not choppy. Treasuries are selling off now (having initially oscillated) and the initial 'upgrade' of the economy juiced stocks but that has been faded. The DXY is surging higher as AUD, JPY, and EUR are losing the most ground against the USD. Commodities are feeling the lack-of-QE pain with Silver and Gold down quite hard. It seems equities remain the most confused - do we follow Treasuries (inflation/QE-off) and rally or do we follow USD/Commodity (QE-off) and drop? Based on pre-FOMC correlations, risk should be coming off and we note VIX gapped down under 15% and then back up to almost 16% now.

Commodities are taking the brunt of the Fed's less than dovish stance...

 

as are Treasuries, now 3-4bps higher post FOMC with the long-end underperforming (steepening).

 

Broadly speaking risk is off (as seen here by our CONTEXT proxy) but correlations are likely shifting to this new regime (though do we highlight the fact that the last day or two, risk sensitivity to the USD and Treasuries has become notably higher and less so for carry FX crosses specifically.

So - in summary (spot the odd one out) - Treasuries +4-5bps, Gold/Silver -1%, USD +0.4%, and ES unchanged!

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:44 | 2251215 Spartan
Spartan's picture

Brent in Euro's hit a new high today! Risk On...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:49 | 2251252 pkea
pkea's picture

Everything is fine in the psychopathic world...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:00 | 2251301 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Bernanke will never mention QE or any thing like it.  The FED has figured out how to monetize without talking about it.  No reason to ever change until the wheels fly off.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:11 | 2251349 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

JPM raises div; authorizes buyback.

USA!  USA!!  USA!!!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:26 | 2251430 trav7777
trav7777's picture

mild price action in gold...silver holding up, Pt positive and past gold now...

maybe some of the terror luster will bleed off of Au, but oil and Pt tell a tale of some sort of business activity rebound into the overhead oil supply curve.

The growing mothballing of nuclear power plants make NG a potential blockbuster spec trade...let's just hope they don't shut these things down totally because they will need to very abruptly restart them or else face outages in the near future

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:05 | 2251322 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

just an algo stuff and puke fest...all at once.  fucking computers don't know what the hell to do.  Good flash crash day if you ask me.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:10 | 2251333 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Looking quite the opposite (as usual)

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:43 | 2251216 Squishi
Squishi's picture

Sheep waiting for bernanke to tell them moahhahahahha

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:05 | 2251326 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Mr. Beard is the sheep.  The boss has no name. 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:44 | 2251221 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

'U.S.' and 'Treasuries'...

If that aint an oxymoron - i dont know what is.

'Jumbo Shrimp'... is another...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:47 | 2251238 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

......Smart politicians

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:00 | 2251306 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Biggie Smalls

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:56 | 2251558 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Federal Reserve

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:56 | 2251560 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Federal Reserve

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:03 | 2251315 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

...sanitary napkins

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:44 | 2251222 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Shit just buy eveything Buy Buy Buy!!!!! There is a Bernank guarantee.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:47 | 2251241 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Just buy the fucking dip!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:44 | 2251224 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm sure some far more insightful people than I will analyze the situation, but The Bernank isn't really in a box, IMO, but he has candidates running for re-election this year in a very bad box.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:46 | 2251234 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

"That's one healthy looking market you got there, Ferd!" says Frank Farkel to Ferd Berfel.

And, Sparkle Farkel. "Hi!"

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:12 | 2251345 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

<Soft yet sinister voice from a darkened recess of an undisclosed location>

And scene:

"Those are healthy looking market indexes you have going for you, Mr. President.

 

It'd be a shame if something awful happened to them before November."

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:46 | 2251236 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

What market?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:54 | 2251275 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

The one about to crater right into Mitt's lap. We'll all be shouting Mor-money! Mor-money!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:47 | 2251239 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

And the blind bear strikes again... "Silver and Gold down quite hard" Are we talking about the metals traded on the Crimex? Down hard? $7 off the gold price is "down hard"? 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:27 | 2251435 trav7777
trav7777's picture

silver is not getting blowtorched today...gold down a whole 1% ZOMG

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 19:50 | 2256283 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

does this look like -7$ to you? http://comparegoldprices.com/

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:47 | 2251240 chump666
chump666's picture

panic buy on the Dow whilst USD bids.  EUR selling...momo market and last gasp.  very overbought.  should sell towards the close if the oil price stays high

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:56 | 2251281 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You'd sure think so, but then nothing makes a bit of sense. For all we know Bernank sits hitting the buy button for DOW 14,300 for his 'legacy' as the man who reinflated the great '08 bubble.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:00 | 2251305 chump666
chump666's picture

thats the worry.  cept he mentioned inflation.  he needs to get that oil price down which he kinda was trying to do, but instead gold sells and USD is bid with oil hahaha.  crazy.

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:59 | 2251298 espirit
espirit's picture

SkyNet is still self-aware.  Re-programming begins on boot.

Do not adjust your set.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:48 | 2251242 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

its the drug addict trying to figure out where the next liquidity fix is going to come from........

initial reaction? buy Apple!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

no sell Apple.......................

jesus...what to do?

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 19:57 | 2256294 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

how the hell are AAPL shares nearing 600 already? That's some crazy bubble territory. I don't even want to think about touching it. Not long, not short, no options, nothing. I don't trust it worth a damn.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:48 | 2251244 walküre
walküre's picture

There is no trend. Until retail is coming back to buying stocks, they've got nothing. Retail investors are still healing and licking their wounds. Now inflation is going to eat away their savings faster than they can earn it back.

Groundhog Day market for a few more months.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:56 | 2251282 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

I think everything is on hold until after elections.

Lots of events to keep us entertained until than.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:04 | 2251319 JuicyGrabs
JuicyGrabs's picture

It`s what Jim Rogers thinks. He`s saying Obama will feed us candy untill elections and then crash boom bang. Iran gangbanging, high oil prices and all the good stuff.

Of course if Obama manages to contain all the nastiness in Europe and put a leash on Israel. Not an easy task.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:58 | 2251291 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

What market?

Retail investors? You mean the people too stupid to see they are participating in their own enslavement, like most of the people on ZH?

If you are participating.... A. You dont have the right to bitch about anything. B. You're a hypocritical traitor, and deserve what you get when the time comes.

Down with DC and Wall St!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:09 | 2251341 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

HAHAHAHAAH awesome material!!!!!!

Of course realizing every human on the planet is a participant willingly or not.

Keep up the good work.

and ftr the retail investor has been out of the equity markets for the latest melt up.

Down with ignorance and sheer and total bliss.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:29 | 2251449 walküre
walküre's picture

They need the retail investor to come back. Plain and simple. All that HFT driven volume and banks loaded with equities is a setup to entice and sell to retail.

Gold and silver - smack down every time it catches up drift.

Yield on bonds is non-existent.

Investors are scratching their heads and not sure what to do with their cash.

ALL INVESTOR MEDIA PROPAGANDA IS BEGGING PEOPLE TO GO AND BUY EQUITIES. None of the investment squak boxes are offering any alternatives. You know, like investing into something that stores value and earns income at the same time.

INSTEAD, investment media propaganda is saying "HEY LOOK J6P!!! DOW GREEN!!!! S&P GREEN!!! GREECE IS FIXED!!! BUY, BUY, BUY!!!".

The 90's boiler room clowns are now the CNBC, BNN etc anchors.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:35 | 2251473 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

Betting against the Fed is participation. Betting on the Fed is participation. And the decision to "not participate" and let TPTB control the value of your cash/assets and control oil/food prices and whether or not you have a job in 2013, is PARTICIPATION.

A decision to do nothing is an act with consequences. 

All individual action is participation of some kind.  Unless you have wandered off into the woods with nothing but the shirt on your back, you are participating in the system.  If you have a job, a house, a car, go to the grocery store, you are participating in the same system.  

That being said, many of those on ZH are participating in the markets by doing exactly what Bernank&Friends don't want them to do, by buying gold and making any effort to see through the manipulation of markets.  Are market participants enslaved by the system simply because they know how the system works and choose, with full knowledge, to participate?  I would not call that enslavement. Bernanke probably wishes that anyone without faith in the Fed would stop playing in the markets.  It would give his fat finger a rest.

You can participate in a system and still be working to change that system. (or break it)

I will agree with you though, that anyone playing in these rigged markets should expect to get screwed.  If they are gambling with money they can't afford to lose, its their choice.  

 

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:48 | 2251246 pkea
pkea's picture

I feel comfortable selling now and won't be surprised to be much lower in a week or two.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:50 | 2251255 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Good idea...no sense in chasing pennies in front of a steamroller here. I have a feeling the day the selling avalanches there will be no way out.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:03 | 2251313 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

I feel comfortable telling you to fuck yourself, because you shouldnt be in that farce of a casino anyway. I love how everyone here is a rebel.... but how is apple doing?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:55 | 2251539 pkea
pkea's picture
  • Sold most of aapl today. it' was a bit emotional, been friends with apple since 2003 on and off. man, 9 years...Whatever, aapl may go wherever it wants to go:) with chase behind it, it's all good.  I'm taking a vacation
Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:49 | 2251249 chump666
chump666's picture

gold gets slammed oil stays bid?  that is out of whack on USD buying.  market looks unstable.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:54 | 2251274 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Unstable? Market looks like a drunken toddler.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:59 | 2251296 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Someone please cue up, People Get Ready.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:02 | 2251311 chump666
chump666's picture

haha

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:42 | 2251504 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

not that you know what a drunken toddler looks like

....i hope?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:59 | 2251568 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I was one.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:51 | 2251254 JuicyGrabs
JuicyGrabs's picture

Seen this moves before on no QE disappoinment. Standard headline like "Market confused like a slapped crack whore on no QE bonanza from Fed"

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:51 | 2251261 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

....'yet still enough hope of future crack rocks to rise up equities a bit more anyway'...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:05 | 2251325 espirit
espirit's picture

I've got a derivative insurance for those bogus CDS ya'll bought.

For Sale now, get'em while they're cheap.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:50 | 2251257 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

march madness starts early, boo - yaaa 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:51 | 2251258 adr
adr's picture

Mr. Market keeps telling Mr. Main Street to buy stocks. Mr. Main Street keeps replying, "With what?"

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:53 | 2251270 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Desperately trying to get 'retail' to buy the pump off the FED's hands. Everyones broke though.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:55 | 2251278 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

i know. Jamie Dimon forget to leave the peasants enough to buy the shit stocks at the top of the peak.....

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:08 | 2251338 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Mr Main St is going for his machete, rope, and cocktails; in reply.

It is time to bring Main St justice to the Wall St and DC crooks, the pigs wont, and it is our right. Hang'em all.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:51 | 2251535 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

What Main St do you live on?   My Main St. is empty when Dancing with the Stars is on, and all I can see are campaign posters on lawns begging for more hope and change.

Green arrow for wanting to hang the bastards, though.  Even if just you and I show up for the hanging.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:11 | 2251348 All Rise
All Rise's picture

With borrowed money dude!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:53 | 2251551 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

Can I buy stocks with my EBT card?

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 16:00 | 2251581 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre probably working on that right now. EBT enabled ETrade accounts.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:54 | 2251266 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Either you're with The Bernank and Dow 36,000/NASDapple 10,000 (even if only one out of every 10 stocks ultimately gain on the way there), or you're against him.

Terristy people...

 

#JonCorzine&JosephKonyInnocenceProject

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:08 | 2251336 espirit
espirit's picture

Dat's the snAPPL. Teats up!

There, fixed it.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:01 | 2251267 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Today saw a wild market, but anyone who hasn't watched intra-day and will only see the end result, will think, green's a go!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:53 | 2251268 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Some HFT/ALGO programming kid just got fired!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:54 | 2251271 barliman
barliman's picture

 

Baaaa, da da da dum, Baaaa, da da da dum, Baaaa, da da da da daaaa, daaaa ...

"Help us Obi Ben Bernanke. You are our only hope."

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:05 | 2251323 sbenard
sbenard's picture

"Help us Obi Ben Bernanke. You are our only hope."

LOL ...and I just call him Bubbles!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 16:14 | 2251660 barliman
barliman's picture

 

Suddenly, a dark presence comes striding into the market ...

The HFT machines suddenly whir down to silence in the presence of

Darth Dimon!

He looks over the NYSE ominously and says,

"I find your lack of faith disturbing."

 He then raises his hand further and further into the air as the HFT machines scream into warp drive and their overheated, colocated processors begin to suck the oxygen from the trading floor ...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:55 | 2251279 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

AUD is quickly approaching LOD.  That bodes well for commodities.....

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:55 | 2251280 Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

Looking at this market I always thought that there could be a "Super Rally" in the dollar.

1) Bonds sell off

2) High interest rates pressure stocks and commodities lower - mo money to $

3) Risk currencies CAN, AUZ, etc sell off due to Asian contraction - mo money to $

4) Debt defaults reduce dollar liquidity

5) Dollar preserves capitol

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:58 | 2251288 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Problem with that is you need to depend on about a 1% daily rise for the 'dollar' to preserve any value.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:58 | 2251287 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Buy rumor, sell the news day?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:59 | 2251293 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

When equities are confused they do the following.

They shut the fuck up, pound a miller high life, and head higher!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:59 | 2251295 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Bernanke treats us all like his own personal guinea pig! We're just one big science experiment to him!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:00 | 2251299 JuicyGrabs
JuicyGrabs's picture

"Market holding steady so that CNBC crew can sell the news for small profit before end of day crash"

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:00 | 2251300 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

30 year is in technical breakdown territory if the Fed doesn't intervene.  It has a very nice daily distribution pattern followed by a big break.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:04 | 2251318 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

I'm sure they'll twist their way over to that end soon, meanwhile Sack needs to step in here, 3pm is now.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:05 | 2251327 All Rise
All Rise's picture

This FED statement has Dow 14,000 written all over it. What is taking so long?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:08 | 2251335 SDRII
SDRII's picture

JPM ups dividend and 15B repurchase. Market is like a badly orchestrated sitcom

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:12 | 2251354 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 This shit is comic releaf. Now the markets are trying to force bond money into equities. They tried the retail investor, and now they want the bond investor. They got nothing and liked it!

 If the stress tests look so good, then the banks will start lending on their shadow inventory? Ya right!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:22 | 2251394 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Only 10 points away from 1400 on the S&P.

Just...sayin'.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:25 | 2251422 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I'm jumping in the freezer. Wake me up in May!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:23 | 2251406 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Why even question Helicopter Ben.....foreign CBs are buying US equities....Ben is going for the full court press...on sanity.

Welcome to the NWO...bitchez...just buy, buy, buy like Ben and his pack of smirking hyenas are telling you to....they know what is best for you and humanity for that matter.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:26 | 2251427 crawl
crawl's picture

Fricken unbelievable.
bear trap
Market has lit the Crack pipe too.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:32 | 2251463 Monoki
Monoki's picture

Tyler:

The market knows exactly how to trae the FOMC; you don't have a clue how to assess without your big bear goggles on.

 

ZH, Tyler et al who hide anonymously:

With all due respect  and with thanks for some very informative posts, but if anyone acted on your the 3-yr bearish rants, not only have they missed out on a massive rally, but perhaps have gotten clipped on the short side.

Zero Hedge definitely has a bearish bias which all should take note.  Yes, ZH has some great posts, but it appears that Tyler and ZH literally prays for the worst, dying to be proven correct with a massive correction rather than trying to balance the risks to the rewards.

Say what you will about the bulls (I am not a long-term bull).  Say what you will about central bankers manipulating the markets and the algos exacerbating the situation on central bankers' coattails (I disdain both).  Say what you will about 'manipulated' and 'messaged' gov't statistics.  The fact of the matter is this:  US equities are up huge since 2009 despite the doomsday sayers' warnings.  In fact, if one were to take ZH with a grain of salt and went the very opposite direction of his ever-changing tones, you might have been rewarded:  the more bearish ZH is, it appears the greater the chance an above market return.  ZH and the S&P might have the most precise inverse correlation I’ve seen.    

Tyler -- I'll call you by the name that which you hide behind -- thank you for your posts, but it's awfully apparent that you have a bias and remain anonymous for whatever (dark) reason.

Én vagyok Monoki. Én is magyar vagyok. ??????,? ????? ??? ??????. ? ???? ????.  Vicces ZH nem ismeri az orosz.

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:36 | 2251482 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Good thing you put that "I am not a long-term bull" caveat in your diatribe, SockPuppetv2.07, lest your whole argument would have fell by the credibility wayside.

/s

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 16:04 | 2251587 walküre
walküre's picture

Your logic is based on the premise that investors would have taken all their money out of equities in 2007 or 2008 and had cash in their trading accounts.

Few investors I know did. Most got clobbered AND on top of that lost wealth, or worse lost income.

Equity prices have recovered, in some cases they've performed better than prior to the crash.

Good for you if had the fortune to be in cash in 2008 and good luck if you were picking the winners since then.

How much of the money that found its way into equities came from the housing bubble between '02 and '07?

The crash vaporized that money AND created negative equity in housing which is still on the bank's balance sheets!

Despite that the equity market is going up. The money is not coming from ca. 35% of home-owners who have the misfortune of being underwater on their mortgage. So where is the money coming from? Look no further than the increased national debt by several trillions and the bloated FED balance sheet.

The money was not earned in the economy and reinvested into equities.

It's bogus. All of it!

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 16:30 | 2251754 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

Just to be open minded for a moment and listen to Monoki....

if someone had the cash (by getting out in 2008) and sat on it doing nothing, its purchasing power is now eroded and has not kept up even slightly with inflation

if however, that person put the cash into equities and rode the election year cycle, although they can buy a little less of everythign with those gains, its still more than they could have bought with the cash.  

Of course that all depends on having gotten out, in, then back out of equities at the perfect time, in a blatantly rigged market.  So Monoki is ignoring the fact that most would have lost their asses due to the timing, regardless of the stock market gains.  Furthermore, more WILL probably lose, if they don't get out in time again, should the real state of affairs be seen even partially for what it is.  Monoki may be one of them.

Its easy to say that what someone predicted did or did not happen in retrospect.  However, can you stay in these markets and get out at the perfect time, Monoki?  I think what ZH has been pointing out is that the equities UP has been based on faith in unicorns, and that the DOW might hit 52K in nominal terms (see post from a month or so ago), but its still riding on the backs of unicorns and the gains you get won't buy you anything real.  He is also pointing out that our ponzi system depends on getting the credit bubble going again, but if people can't buy any more than they could in 2008, it doesn't expand the bubble.

Tyler is showing you what IS and letting you decide whether or not to play the equities game.  If you are a perfect market timer, then more power to you.  But if not, you have been warned.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 18:56 | 2252174 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I would offer up a SWAG that at least 85%, and as many as 95%, don't make it out in time to avoid a loss.

Rinse, wash, lather, repeat.

Such is the nature of the greatest & most rigged casino ever devised.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 16:13 | 2251650 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Yo Mo - You sound like a NWO supporter. It's all good as long as equities go up...Fed printing, shadowy foreign FX swaps, buying of MBS, essentially tthe complete bifurcation of the Fed's balance sheet....will present no socio-economic issues at all.

Additionally, you exhibit the NWO left wing facsist tendencies by clamoring for openness from the author (Tyler) = the messenger, however you do not ask for the same openess from the Fed or TBTF banks, or the ECB, who are spending taxpayer monies.

The relatively stable Western Civilizations were not developed on CB printing fiat currency. Death and mayhem have followed when countries have been as monocular (no pun intended) to print fiat currency.

Perhaps "Tyler" hides behind his name....but you Sir hide behind your true aspirations...NWO bitchez...

P.S. - Nice hat.

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 20:27 | 2256345 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I got 25% returns last year avoiding all the real-risk assets identified by ZH and myself without ZH help. Risk-reduction's the name of the game & counter-party risk is a big part of that.

By all means, trade some options for paper profits. I do. But be careful. Trading into the "rally" is a sucker's game. The instant it's clear people believe in a rally there IS no rally. It's vaporized. Schroedinger's Charts.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:34 | 2251471 GovtMediaLiars
GovtMediaLiars's picture

"Based on pre-FOMC correlations, risk should be coming off and we note VIX gapped down under 15% and then back up to almost 16% now."

Quite the ride. A morning gap down of over 10% followed promptly by a ramp straight up of over 14%
VIX has been acting hinky for weeks now. Some of that "hinkyness" can be explained fairly easily by routine factors but much of it can not.

I also think it quite unlikely that the VIX would move sideways from here for any extended period.

Cheers!
Curtis 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:36 | 2251483 DavidC
DavidC's picture

OK Benny, if things are THAT good how raising interest rates or taking QE3 off the table or taking some of the fluff out of the market or...?

Sorry, you WON'T?

DavidC

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:49 | 2251530 ivars
ivars's picture

Today is exactly one year since my long term silver spot price prediction chart was created and published on March 13th, 2011, here:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

Disregard most of the text, please, except advice for silver buying in the end:

[quote]So, keep silver, but You can buy or repurchase it cheaper during 2011-early 2012 than now. [/quote]

I will take the opportunity given by this anniversary to analyze the charts accuracy during and over one year.

One year ago, on Friday, March 11, 2011, Silver closing spot price was 35,9USD/Oz. In my chart on March 13,2011 I predicted that Silver closing spot price on March 13th, 2012 will be 32,5 USD/oz. Today it is 33,2 as I write. So the accuracy of this END-to-END prediction over one year period is about 2 %.

Here You can see the shorter term part of the same chart ( red color) with comparison to actual silver spot prices over the year period. I would like to suggest what would have been stacker actions he/she would have followed the chart:

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7204/6777724090_40679067e1_o.png

1) He/she  would never had bought silver above 32,5 USD but waited until it falls below it-except if he wanted to make short term profit on the peaks and troughs in April and August-September by going long before the peak and short at or after the peak.

2) He/she would have bought like hell in October 2011 when closing price was in the range 30-32

3) He/she would have been happily surprised by drop in December -January 2012 and buying with all his money when price went even below 30 USD

4) He/she would have never fallen into traps of April , August-September, October -November and February 2012 excitement and would not have bought above 32,5 -sold may be to make profit and bough back later.

Of course, no one is able to believe in any chart so much, especially from an unknown source, but some reliance on it after it had proved quite accurate ( don't by above 32,5) would have helped after September crash.

But now the scary part comes to test the chart- the fast raise and drop in silver which according to original chart should start already on April 1st 2012, and reach peak by October 2012, OR, according to the same chart that was little bit tuned (green)  in October 17th, 2011- slower and later ( from mid June 2012, with a real sharp rise starting mid September, double top November-December 2012).

http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6234/6280601222_40413db4b9_o.jpg

From both charts, I would say start to believe its going to hit 60-70 in 2012  once its over 45-50  But there will be a crash again, so buying above 45-50 without intent to sell at the peak is not advisable.

Can't wait to see what will happen. I do not trade, but have bought some physical gold to test own charting. If I am as lucky as usual in financial matters, I will loose money. Hope that helps.

All my prediction charts are in one place here:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2814/ivars-charts

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 21:24 | 2252614 cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

risk off is saved by jpm's share repurchase.

 

http://www.cnhedge.com/

http://www.jinrongbaike.com/

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