Market Unsure How To Trade FOMC

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It's nothing if not choppy. Treasuries are selling off now (having initially oscillated) and the initial 'upgrade' of the economy juiced stocks but that has been faded. The DXY is surging higher as AUD, JPY, and EUR are losing the most ground against the USD. Commodities are feeling the lack-of-QE pain with Silver and Gold down quite hard. It seems equities remain the most confused - do we follow Treasuries (inflation/QE-off) and rally or do we follow USD/Commodity (QE-off) and drop? Based on pre-FOMC correlations, risk should be coming off and we note VIX gapped down under 15% and then back up to almost 16% now.

Commodities are taking the brunt of the Fed's less than dovish stance...

 

as are Treasuries, now 3-4bps higher post FOMC with the long-end underperforming (steepening).

 

Broadly speaking risk is off (as seen here by our CONTEXT proxy) but correlations are likely shifting to this new regime (though do we highlight the fact that the last day or two, risk sensitivity to the USD and Treasuries has become notably higher and less so for carry FX crosses specifically.

So - in summary (spot the odd one out) - Treasuries +4-5bps, Gold/Silver -1%, USD +0.4%, and ES unchanged!

Charts: Bloomberg

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Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:44 | 2251215 Spartan
Spartan's picture

Brent in Euro's hit a new high today! Risk On...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:49 | 2251252 pkea
pkea's picture

Everything is fine in the psychopathic world...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:00 | 2251301 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Bernanke will never mention QE or any thing like it.  The FED has figured out how to monetize without talking about it.  No reason to ever change until the wheels fly off.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:11 | 2251349 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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JPM raises div; authorizes buyback.

USA!  USA!!  USA!!!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:26 | 2251430 trav7777
trav7777's picture

mild price action in gold...silver holding up, Pt positive and past gold now...

maybe some of the terror luster will bleed off of Au, but oil and Pt tell a tale of some sort of business activity rebound into the overhead oil supply curve.

The growing mothballing of nuclear power plants make NG a potential blockbuster spec trade...let's just hope they don't shut these things down totally because they will need to very abruptly restart them or else face outages in the near future

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:05 | 2251322 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

just an algo stuff and puke fest...all at once.  fucking computers don't know what the hell to do.  Good flash crash day if you ask me.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:10 | 2251333 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Looking quite the opposite (as usual)

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:43 | 2251216 Squishi
Squishi's picture

Sheep waiting for bernanke to tell them moahhahahahha

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:05 | 2251326 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Mr. Beard is the sheep.  The boss has no name. 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:44 | 2251221 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

'U.S.' and 'Treasuries'...

If that aint an oxymoron - i dont know what is.

'Jumbo Shrimp'... is another...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:47 | 2251238 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

......Smart politicians

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:00 | 2251306 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Biggie Smalls

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:56 | 2251558 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Federal Reserve

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:56 | 2251560 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Federal Reserve

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:03 | 2251315 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

...sanitary napkins

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:44 | 2251222 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Shit just buy eveything Buy Buy Buy!!!!! There is a Bernank guarantee.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:47 | 2251241 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Just buy the fucking dip!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:44 | 2251224 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm sure some far more insightful people than I will analyze the situation, but The Bernank isn't really in a box, IMO, but he has candidates running for re-election this year in a very bad box.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:46 | 2251234 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

"That's one healthy looking market you got there, Ferd!" says Frank Farkel to Ferd Berfel.

And, Sparkle Farkel. "Hi!"

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:12 | 2251345 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

<Soft yet sinister voice from a darkened recess of an undisclosed location>

And scene:

"Those are healthy looking market indexes you have going for you, Mr. President.

 

It'd be a shame if something awful happened to them before November."

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:46 | 2251236 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

What market?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:54 | 2251275 GeneMarchbanks
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The one about to crater right into Mitt's lap. We'll all be shouting Mor-money! Mor-money!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:47 | 2251239 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

And the blind bear strikes again... "Silver and Gold down quite hard" Are we talking about the metals traded on the Crimex? Down hard? $7 off the gold price is "down hard"? 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:27 | 2251435 trav7777
trav7777's picture

silver is not getting blowtorched today...gold down a whole 1% ZOMG

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 19:50 | 2256283 MeelionDollerBogus
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does this look like -7$ to you? http://comparegoldprices.com/

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:47 | 2251240 chump666
chump666's picture

panic buy on the Dow whilst USD bids.  EUR selling...momo market and last gasp.  very overbought.  should sell towards the close if the oil price stays high

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:56 | 2251281 SheepDog-One
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You'd sure think so, but then nothing makes a bit of sense. For all we know Bernank sits hitting the buy button for DOW 14,300 for his 'legacy' as the man who reinflated the great '08 bubble.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:00 | 2251305 chump666
chump666's picture

thats the worry.  cept he mentioned inflation.  he needs to get that oil price down which he kinda was trying to do, but instead gold sells and USD is bid with oil hahaha.  crazy.

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:59 | 2251298 espirit
espirit's picture

SkyNet is still self-aware.  Re-programming begins on boot.

Do not adjust your set.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:48 | 2251242 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

its the drug addict trying to figure out where the next liquidity fix is going to come from........

initial reaction? buy Apple!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

no sell Apple.......................

jesus...what to do?

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 19:57 | 2256294 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

how the hell are AAPL shares nearing 600 already? That's some crazy bubble territory. I don't even want to think about touching it. Not long, not short, no options, nothing. I don't trust it worth a damn.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:48 | 2251244 walküre
walküre's picture

There is no trend. Until retail is coming back to buying stocks, they've got nothing. Retail investors are still healing and licking their wounds. Now inflation is going to eat away their savings faster than they can earn it back.

Groundhog Day market for a few more months.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:56 | 2251282 BLOTTO
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I think everything is on hold until after elections.

Lots of events to keep us entertained until than.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:04 | 2251319 JuicyGrabs
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It`s what Jim Rogers thinks. He`s saying Obama will feed us candy untill elections and then crash boom bang. Iran gangbanging, high oil prices and all the good stuff.

Of course if Obama manages to contain all the nastiness in Europe and put a leash on Israel. Not an easy task.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:58 | 2251291 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

What market?

Retail investors? You mean the people too stupid to see they are participating in their own enslavement, like most of the people on ZH?

If you are participating.... A. You dont have the right to bitch about anything. B. You're a hypocritical traitor, and deserve what you get when the time comes.

Down with DC and Wall St!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:09 | 2251341 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

HAHAHAHAAH awesome material!!!!!!

Of course realizing every human on the planet is a participant willingly or not.

Keep up the good work.

and ftr the retail investor has been out of the equity markets for the latest melt up.

Down with ignorance and sheer and total bliss.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:29 | 2251449 walküre
walküre's picture

They need the retail investor to come back. Plain and simple. All that HFT driven volume and banks loaded with equities is a setup to entice and sell to retail.

Gold and silver - smack down every time it catches up drift.

Yield on bonds is non-existent.

Investors are scratching their heads and not sure what to do with their cash.

ALL INVESTOR MEDIA PROPAGANDA IS BEGGING PEOPLE TO GO AND BUY EQUITIES. None of the investment squak boxes are offering any alternatives. You know, like investing into something that stores value and earns income at the same time.

INSTEAD, investment media propaganda is saying "HEY LOOK J6P!!! DOW GREEN!!!! S&P GREEN!!! GREECE IS FIXED!!! BUY, BUY, BUY!!!".

The 90's boiler room clowns are now the CNBC, BNN etc anchors.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:35 | 2251473 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

Betting against the Fed is participation. Betting on the Fed is participation. And the decision to "not participate" and let TPTB control the value of your cash/assets and control oil/food prices and whether or not you have a job in 2013, is PARTICIPATION.

A decision to do nothing is an act with consequences. 

All individual action is participation of some kind.  Unless you have wandered off into the woods with nothing but the shirt on your back, you are participating in the system.  If you have a job, a house, a car, go to the grocery store, you are participating in the same system.  

That being said, many of those on ZH are participating in the markets by doing exactly what Bernank&Friends don't want them to do, by buying gold and making any effort to see through the manipulation of markets.  Are market participants enslaved by the system simply because they know how the system works and choose, with full knowledge, to participate?  I would not call that enslavement. Bernanke probably wishes that anyone without faith in the Fed would stop playing in the markets.  It would give his fat finger a rest.

You can participate in a system and still be working to change that system. (or break it)

I will agree with you though, that anyone playing in these rigged markets should expect to get screwed.  If they are gambling with money they can't afford to lose, its their choice.  

 

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:48 | 2251246 pkea
pkea's picture

I feel comfortable selling now and won't be surprised to be much lower in a week or two.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:50 | 2251255 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Good idea...no sense in chasing pennies in front of a steamroller here. I have a feeling the day the selling avalanches there will be no way out.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:03 | 2251313 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

I feel comfortable telling you to fuck yourself, because you shouldnt be in that farce of a casino anyway. I love how everyone here is a rebel.... but how is apple doing?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:55 | 2251539 pkea
pkea's picture
  • Sold most of aapl today. it' was a bit emotional, been friends with apple since 2003 on and off. man, 9 years...Whatever, aapl may go wherever it wants to go:) with chase behind it, it's all good.  I'm taking a vacation
Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:49 | 2251249 chump666
chump666's picture

gold gets slammed oil stays bid?  that is out of whack on USD buying.  market looks unstable.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:54 | 2251274 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Unstable? Market looks like a drunken toddler.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:59 | 2251296 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Someone please cue up, People Get Ready.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:02 | 2251311 chump666
chump666's picture

haha

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:42 | 2251504 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

not that you know what a drunken toddler looks like

....i hope?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:59 | 2251568 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I was one.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:51 | 2251254 JuicyGrabs
JuicyGrabs's picture

Seen this moves before on no QE disappoinment. Standard headline like "Market confused like a slapped crack whore on no QE bonanza from Fed"

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:51 | 2251261 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

....'yet still enough hope of future crack rocks to rise up equities a bit more anyway'...

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