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Market Volume Hits Fresh Non-Holiday Decade Lows
Surrealer and Surrealer (sp.) is the only way to describe today's activity. With a technical halt in CME's oil complex trading which was quite obviously driven by some rogue algo between Oil futures and the USO oil ETF, perhaps it is no surprise that today's NYSE volume (16% below the year's average volume) is the lowest on Bloomberg data for a non-Holiday day in over a decade. ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) also had a dismal day with the day's total just beating February 6th previous multi-year low (non-holiday) volume and 30% below the 50-day average volume.
NYSE volume (NYSEVOL on BBG) made a new low for the year (which means decade also) as today saw volumes 16% below an already terribly low year average.
ES volumes were terrible too though average trade size is dropping at around 4.14 contracts per trade (well off its peak over 5 last week) perhaps suggesting the bigger players are positioned and now the smaller ones are chasing (who is trading European financial credit - which has sold off significantly and is at two week wides? big professional traders or small retail traders?). Also perhaps its a notable coincidence that we have seen these kind of 'incredible' ramps a few times in the last few years - each red block is the same size and period.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Surely somehow this is bullish.
Sure it is! Everyone knows that light volume in an uptrend is [cough] bullish!
If by bullish you mean everyone else should buy. Then yes, by all means.
It is certainly All Priced In.
BTW, the asteroid that will be hitting the earth in December is priced in as well.
Baked in
DOW 36 000! Btchz
It is. For people in shorts.
Light volume means a lot of money still stays on the sidelines and many people miss the rally! Hedge funds are waiting so desperately for a 5-10% retracement so they can put their money in. Some of them are talking and writing doom and gloom news to make it happen. But the market doesn't let them! If the market keeps grinding higher slowly, those people will start to panic. It'll be very funny to see when the market breaks key resistance level, the move and volume instead just start to accelerate
Something resembling stall speed. We know what happens after that if there's no corrective action.
... the Bernanke anti-gravity machine shoots us to the fucking moon.
I wonder if this is more a reflection of the decline in proprietary trading, than a general lack of interest??
The answer is yes.
It was me who bought something.
Me too.
Another stack of silver coins.
dark pools maybe?
Yea it was all 'dismal' today and all...yet all markets deep in the green of course...only a few more of these 1% up days on zero volume, and equity markets will bust thru all-time previous record bubble highs! 10-15 more trading days and counting till DOW 14,500!! Wahoo!!
Machines are doing just enough buying to stay green for obama.
Retail doesn't give two shits about equities that are about to crack and hi-grade corp/muni/treasury that is yield-lo/price-hi.
To say the market is slow is an UNDERSTATEMENT!
Think they can pull that off for another 10 months straight? I dont!
Nope. That's why a lot of my clients are currently sitting in ponzi paper, um........cash.
Interesting wave counts. According to some analysis, we're just about ready to roll over. Tomorrow might be interesting.
So what happens in a market making "all time highs" on no volume, with few shorts, with massive redemptions, high unemployment, increasing inflation, and entire countries defaulting - supported almost exclusively by an ocean of central bank money printing?
I guess what happens is, pop the cork on another few bottles of Dom? WTF...no ones picking up the tab anyway, get down and PARTAY!!
Oh, someone's "picking up the tab" alright.
See those two over in the corner table.
One is Benny, and the other is Timmah.
But when the waiter comes with the check, they will have gone to the Mens room, and out the window.
They'll be hitting the meth pipe in the bathroom and probably just stab the waiter
Oh that's easy, it keeps going up..FOREVER!
Gosh you're just not very good at this are you?
For the vast majority it doesn't mean a damn thing. For those who pay attention and have skin in the game it's absofuckinglutely rivetting! Seriously when was the last time trading volume fell to decade lows? Last Thursday or Friday wasn't it? I get the feeling the plummeting volume storyline for 2012 (at least until sometime in March -maybe) is going to sound like a broken record on this site. At some point that George Santayana quote is going to be mighty relevant.
bullish!!!.....i hope the markets open tomorrow morning down -20%.and stay there......and wipe out a bunch of knuckle heads....but nope, illegal to sell more than buying now, so up we go.
Come on, P/E ratio is a pitiful 22+, the market is a fricken bargain. Never mind that the median is 16.42. It only makes sense to factor that in if you forget that the economy is fixed now. Happy days are here again. We can all do the dance of joy and go full bore into equities.
PRIMARY DEALERS = PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM ARE RUNNING OUT OF MONEY.
The second LTRO tranche is on its way (Feb 29th) and Bernanke is going to buy MBS like it is going out of style from here on out. Interest rates are negative in real terms and they will be going lower (per policy) and the inflating currencies will make all asset classes higher. Yet this is merely Keynesian policy. The policy that Bernanke, Krugman, and all other PhDs all Universities teach. I know, it might sound crazy if you have not taken an econ class, but the policy being instituted by the ECB and the Fed is a science. It's fucking science.
Only if you equate one giant experiment to science.
I plan on averaging down my faz. Other than that I'll stack physical silver. Let them eat cake.
Apple IS the market now.
QE 7 headline to read "Apple to receive $7 trillion in stimulus money, saving 20,000 jobs"
The /ES at this 1350 level is either ripe for a big pullback or it's gonna break out to multi year highs.
Given how completely fucked the global economy is looking, it seems only natural that the /ES will rip to some preposterously stratospheric level. If only to rub it in the faces of the plebs.
Up is down, black is white, in is out.
"Ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you mad"
Aldous Huxley
Left is right, war is peace, good is evil.
FUK!
I gave up gambling in 2006, stock speculating in 2007 and took up drinking full time in 2010. I smoke too much, don't exercise enough, but feel pretty good most of the time.
I figure I might as well enjoy what little life is left before the troika or some other three-headed monster comes and kills me.
Good thing I started buying gold and silver in earnest in 2004.
Here's a kicker. eBay extended me 6 months no payments, no interest, so I went and bought all the silver coins I could. Got them at less than spot, too.
Win, win, #winning.
That Sheen character's got nothing on me... except money, looks, 8-balls and $500 hookers.
Ah, hell, anther Vodka and cranberry, bartender.
It is very scary when an ordinary joe can become a market making by placing orders.
Someone should arrange a flash-mob via twitter where everyone sells at the same time, crashes the market 10% then buys back - give the HFT's a run for their money
No volume up drafts scare me. And when it dumps, and it will, I assure you it will be on Sunday night when most of us can only stare into the headlights.
This market is not for me. I will let Robot make all those extra profits based on true fundamentals.
Bot Block Bull Market Ramp Jobs???
So is this one over? If the goal is for insiders to position themselves before the ramp, then run a pre-made trading program designed to run up stocks to a pre-determined exit point. Giving them all easily accountable gains, it may be over. In any manipulation, you wouldn't want it to get out of control. You would plan how the end plays out before you start.
Very strange how each ramp is almost the same size and duration. It would be fun to chart certain momo stocks over each period. If the percentage moves over each period come very close, it would pretty much prove outright manipulation.
Or maybe Apple reaching $500 a share is really all about Chinese buying iPads.
"Or maybe Apple reaching $500 a share is really all about Chinese buying iPads."
Indeed. The families of suicidal workers who threw themselves off a roof rather than make one more fucking iPad all receive a 10% coupon off any apple product.
If Apple knows anything - it's how to drive sales.
It's a promotion. They have excess resl-estae in China so you get a free house with each iPad.
On Balance Volume??? ..thinking Joe Grenville
...what is there that stops the FED from owning EVERY stock?
Well thats just what theyre doing, buying every bond and stock, with their own fake money. Now when I was telling people 3 YEARS ago this is JUST what they would do, I was laughed and scoffed at as a 'conspiracy nut', and of course that 'could never happen'.
Well, here we are!
Newz flash: You are a conspiracy nut, Sheep-dog, and a damned good one. Alex Jones sends his love.
True, but now we're laughing at you for other reasons.
Just kiddin ya, SD ;-)
Why would they do that when they can hand out free money and let other people take the risk buying equities with free money.
Please stop making inquiries -
signed - Mr Trading Computer
Yes it is very wierd....no volume melt ups...and the talking heads sing its praises....Apple $500....Dow close to 13,000.......tell one tell all....wierd....
But to me the exchanges have to be losing money...and the smart money has to see this also and is out of the market..something is stinking in the exchanges...
Almost like theyre just very desperate to make things 'look good' until 1 day not far at all from now?
On your chart the market is up on Q1 and then gets crushed in the following quarter.
http://theimperatore.blogspot.com
How does this matter? Zerohedge has been preaching the same doom and gloom for years. Geez we get it already, the market is manipulated. If you don't like the rules don't play. Sometimes the articles are noteworthy and informative, but it begets the question about what are you gonna do about it? I didnt even want to post this, but everyday I see the tyler durden dick suckers here following their false phrophet into whatever shallow grave he has dug. Guess what? The machine will continue to take your liberties away, will continue to make more and more rules till everyone is at some point doing something illegal, and will continue to squeeze you out slowly. BUT YOU CANT DON SHIT ABOUT IT...so stop whining and pass the lube
Of course the real funny part is 2 or 3 years ago when ZH was saying the markets are manipulated, and getting moreso, everyone just scoffed and laughed at that as being ridiculous. Now that its undeniable markets are manipulated frauds, everyone just says 'well thats old news, but what are you going to do about it'?
Well, what are YOU going to do about it?
Thank you so much for your concern and your friendly words.
Now fuck off, asshole.
How does this matter?
The vast majority of motor vehicle fatalities are the result of people not wearing seat belts. People don't wear them because the underestimate the risk, they don't believe they will be in a serious crash, or they believe they will see it coming and avoid it. After all - they have been driving every day for years and nothing has ever happened before.
Complacency and hubris almost always have a high cost. TPTB count on people putting their head in the sand and just going along for the ride...until the music stops. Banks, hedge funds, CNBC and politicians all desperately need the "dumb money" to believe and come back. It hasn't. It won't.
The market will run on fumes until it can't any longer.
I think you are right. The MSM keeps pounding the desks that once the retail guy gets in the market will really take off. Does not seem like they are taking the bait this time.
Yup. Look at redemptions over the past few years. The only way traders make money is to skim off the top of retail investors and weekly mutual fund inflows. TPTB are spooked because there is no one to steal from except each other.
Real, Unfortunately you are somewhat right. I don't think anyone had any idea that the market would become this blatantly manipulated. I don't come here for advice on stocks. I haven't invested in equities since before the crash, but I don't think that is what this site is about. What they have proved is that they seem too better understand the corruption that is going on than most financial sites. They also have demonstrated a high degree of knowledge of the inner workings of all markets and what the implications could be as a result of the scams unfolding from central banks around the globe. This is really a good source of knowledge once you learn to get past some of the posts from his guests and a hand full of the sites followers.
I think everyone agrees that what is going on around the world in our financial markets is not sustainable. Just sit back and contemplate the trillions of dollars that have been and are scheduled to be printed just between the US and Europe! The world is currently acting like a helium balloon that is being inflated and everyone knows what could happen to that balloon if it gets over filled. Some people are going to get seriously clobbered when this market all of the sudden decides not to go up. Tic toc tic toc, but in the meantime, all the power to you! Invest on you dumb ass!
I will continue you to "invest on", you must have not gotten the memo about my name...you trade this market, thats it...if you pull out a few points everyday and go home at the end of the day in cash it doesnt matter how manipulated the market is...because I'm not in long enough to care. Sure the ballon will pop...but do you know when that is? So we let all the oppurtunities pass us by just because 1 day in the distant future the market might crash. I've been hearing this market is broken rhetoric from 2009....and yet here we are 5k off the low. Well you'll be right at some point, even a broken clock is. I think tyler needs his balls washed again....maybe one of you lackees can get the brush.
My guess is that you are sooooo bitter because you are loosing your ass in this market. Here is a little tip, It's designed that way!
Spooky........
They're all drinking FED Light...great taste, less volume.
LOL
Volume doesn't seem to matter. This market is eerie. It just seems to move up in this weird ultra slow motion fashion. It's almost like there isn't really anyone trading, but rather someone sitting at a computer just slowly piling on the buy orders. I have never seen anything like this in my 22 years of investing and this is the 3rd year of this!
Unpresidented LOW NYSE Volume,
Is this analogous to the water receding way way out just before the BIG wave comes in and wrecks everything for miles?
While charting silver this weekend I had the same thought, "When is the next big wave coming?"
One time when I was in Hawaii I went surfing with some family friends. I had never been before. I tried to catch every wave I saw. After a few hours I notied my friends father had caught one wave, and he spent all his time sitting far out. After we had lunch I asked him about it. "There weren't many waves today." He said.
"But you never even tried to catch the small ones. How did you know they wouldn't turn into big waves?" I asked.
"When you learn to surf, you know how to spot a wave before it's a wave." He said knowingly.
Rick Santelli said a few weeks ago it's like a poker game where everyone keeps pushing money around the table but everyone knows they can't cash out.
Except its more like Rounders, where all the "veteran" players at the table are working together to bust the newbies who sit down unsuspectingly.
What I don't get is that there have been several times lately where a selloff starts to look serious. On this low volume you would think a giant plunge will happen. Instead a half hour later the losses are gone.
Flash Crash on the cards. Got a three way for the panic (nice spread): Europe (of course) China (invertible) and the USA (something is brewing).
The more the volume gets sucked out and the market keeps a bizarre momo trading range via HFTs, the guts will fall out soon.
The market has had a strange feel to it since the year started. Very light volume. Very little news, with the rioting in Greece this past weekend being the biggest headline so far. Tech bubble reinflating. Credit bubble reinflating. I mean everyone's bullish, but it just doesn't have a very good feel ... at least to me.
and me. It's topped. I would 100% by a long and see if the momos take this to 13000 on the DOW. But, profit taking is in, all we need is a panic and volatlity will swing back. So it's mini index shorts (futures) on now.
ZH points out a crucial warning sign, money is leaving the market. Any specs left lose their never...boom. It's going down.
The next (possible) Greek PM just said he wants to change the bailout package prior to Greek elections!!! Greece back on the market rader in 48hrs.
"I ask you all: who needs volume when you have terabyte processors, a direct connection, algorithms, and these eyes!?!?"
http://www.federaljack.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/TERMINATOR.jpg
Oxygen ...(gasp) ...oxygen.... (gulp) ....oxygen
...where the hell is Blowjob Ben and QE13 ?
At some point, maybe, real soon, the hopeful, recovery folks, will understand the significance of low volume.
How many times has MY MAIN MAN posted it in the last month or two?
...so very spooky ...here at the highs ...in the black ...hooooole.
It's exactly because of low volume that the market will continue up, you stupid!
Do you really think the market can be so straightforward?
those that manage private money, can only invest with inside info most likely from the FED and Gov.
to invest w/o the ben put is suicide. a major change in US elections of senate and house with say R Paul is the one event to bring this market back to reality. we get romney or the mulatto puppet and it's back to melt ups fo- ever.
tyler your history has not been with the melt up, but your advice should be a warning to all who risk money in this market. the Fed is sure they are TBTF. but the old saying applies to us all: the best laid plans of mice and men..
daytrading and out at close is as a good tool as we have,today, but big bets are sooo balllsy with flash crash always lurking. One slip up one major server down and who knows?