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Massive Beat? Not So Fast - Morgan Stanley Warns 42,000 "Jobs" Bogus Due To Seasonal Quirk
Enamored with the 200,000 number? Don't be - the reason why the market has basically yawned at this BLS data is that as Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw reports, 42,000 of the 200,000 is basically a seasonal quirk, which will be given back next month, meaning the true adjusted number is 158,000, essentially right on top of the expectation. From David Greenlaw: "some of the strength in this report should be discounted because of an seasonal quirk in the courier category of payrolls (Fed-ex, UPS, etc). Jobs in this sector jumped 42,000 in December, repeating a pattern seen in 2009 and 2010 (see attached figure). We should see a payback in next month's report."
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Gee, nobody could have ever seen this coming.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
So basically 158,000 is"the new" 200,000...
What impresses me is that we were able to "create or save" 158,000 jobs (needed for the CUSTOMER SERVICE RETURN DESK)...
O'Bummer should declare MLKing day the "new" Christmas (so by Super Tuesday he'll be able to put a 7 handle on UE)...
I can just picture Obama in the Oval office dancing with glee to some JayZ tune, high fiving his butler and dog walker, with a 40 in his hand, shouting "shit I am good, I be killing that employment number yo" while the rest of his staff look on thinking " just how the fuck did this guy get here"!
I've actually heard rumors that O'Bama BREWS HIS OWN beer in the White House basement [not kidding]...
So whatever... At least he has ONE redeeming quality...
Look for the president to announce a massive summer jobs program that keeps people on the payroll from May thru sometime in mid Sept (whenever the cutoff is to keep the layoffs off the last unemployment release before the election)All stops will be pulled out to produce excellent(bogus) numbers. If the Republicans don't go along he will blast them for being heartless and standing in the way of progress.
He already did with his costly 'youth' summer jobs program as reported on the Drudge the other day.
Add to your comment the controversial OBL leak to sony to make their latest propganda flick. Which just so happens to be released October 2012, just in time to pump up Obama's election chances 'I killed Osama so vote for me!!!'...
When the labor participation rate for 18 to 55 year olds (or 65 year olds, for that matter) is under 50%, our economy will be the most robust in history, and a new high level (under)water mark of economic empire for the record books (i.e. as long as discouraged people drop out of the labor force at an incrementally higher rate than minimum wage, and to a large degree, seasonal workers get hired - or census worker season allows for expanded hiring - we'll be-a-rockin'.)
Joe Wiesenthal & Andrew Ross-Sorkin will be sexting each other at that proud moment with giddy titillation.
I can hardly wait.
Close
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FQugEM12Tc
the irony is in the long run the government liars shoot themselves in the foot.
when reporting the real unemployment number (22%) then a swing of 2 or 3% isn't that significant.
Now they've fudged and continue to fudge the number downward. Someday the unemployment statistic will be showing 5% when in reality it is 25%, and even a 0.1% move in that 5% number will swing the market.
10Y has fallen since the release.....o_O
Someone was not happy about that, and they magically "fixed" it. Wish I could do that with my underwaters.
I'm thinking someone is selling thier long equities and rolling into safety.
with the recent attention starting to look at codes...is this why bls so easily rolls into ..B ul L S hit...
someone better fix the euro quick
I thot it would take weeks to reach 1.2577 support from fall 2010 but at this rate.......
Forget europe and move on, it's not worth the air time or oxygen. My apologies if you are stuck in a trade but you've had 4 years to unwind it.
??????????????
i'm short the euro; long the dollar
If the jobs report is better than expected, then Bernanke will have less political cover to print (ie. bring out QE3), so dollar up, Treasuries up, equities down, and gold down.
Perversely, nothing matters anymore.....other than what the markets THINK Bernanke will do......?
No. He will have more political leverage to print since he can claim it worked previously.
Bob Pisani just agreed with me. Must be true!
Gee, so what do they do next month? Rock, hard place.
Paper. clearly.
...unless many of the 155,000 expectations also included the 42,000 (or some portion) seasonal quirk...
in any case, we could get down to 4% unemployment and if Euro goes its great depression x 10..(ie. employment #s not real important in scheme - good or bad)
Unexpected positive anomaly, comrades ! Please avert eyes. There is much growth in the economy.
Five people in the car pool. They all make between 60 and 100K. By the end of the year there will be four in that car pool. The 'work' the fifth person did will be absorbed by the remaining four, and each of them are facing a 10% pay cut.
The company reports record earnings.
The governmnet reports improved productivity.
Any questions?
Perhaps not. Federal Express could just continue to deliver Obama good news all year long.
Maybe by next month theyll finally add in all the mass layoffs from Sears, K-Mart, etc.
Nah, not enamored by these numbers nor rolled out the red carpet for Obama or QE. Sellin it.
6000 job cuts announced this week at Boeing and Pepsico alone.
Winning!
Let me add this to Cdads jobs disappearing act list.
http://www.aa.com/i18n/aboutUs/corporateResponsibility/employees/our-workforce.jsp
http://www.numberof.net/number-of-kodak-employees/
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/story/2011-12-29/sears-releases-sears-kmart-closings-list/52272742/1
never ending spiral-----stay 360 and your hand on your wallet.
but MSM loves it. The news is all good--The world is saved.
Stewart Varney called this "very good news" and did mention the 50K dropping out but called this "moving in the right direction."\
Um, what direction is that Stew? Bizaro-land?
listen to the talking heads - they only care about one job - obamas; this is all about the king
Lowest approval rating of any president at this time...and this 1 phony report wont change that.
its remarkable that they not only relate the employment #s almost solely to obama but also blatantly target "election day" - after that they don't care, unless, of course they lose their job
And they will be losing their jobs as well, first thing to go in a hard tyranny is the media. No longer any use for them after its all in place. Just 1 govt blowhorn, Pravda style, is all thats needed.
Bottom line is this:
Anyone reading the 100 "hysteria" articles posted per month here and going short stocks has been killed.
There can't be a single bear left still alive with their trading accounts still intact.
Unless you were short junior gold stocks.
Equities sit at levels lower than 2011 mid year....Robo whips it furiously, and laments his 'Gold has topped out here at $900, Im sellin all mine'.
The S&P 500 at 1,281.06 (yesterday's close) would be within two points of the closing price of 1,279.64 on January 29, 1999.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=29&c=1999&d=00&e=29&f=199...
Considering how much public debt has been created since then, how many toxic assets the Fed added to its balance sheet since then, and how much the value of the US Dollar has fallen since January 29, 1999, I would say that is not too impressive. Conveniently, Mr. Robo-Magoo excludes that information.
Well Robo is so IMPRESSED though!
that will probably not be true forever, but has a great deal of truth to it for sure. (and to get to forever one needs an intact trading account,,,)
It's called "timing"
http://t.co/TdN61eY4
*I'm not @credittrader, but a fan of his work*
Yep, long SDS at 19 and change and selling at 26 really wiped me out.
Oh look...it's time to load up again!
Ah, Robo, we're still below last year's high in the US equities markets. Did you not notice that? Did you not notice that the larger trend is down? Some trader you are.
I'll say this: the highs for the year in the US equities markets will be made this month. If we haven't hit it already, we probably will within the next week. From there, the bears will be validated and compensated.
Bitch.
Also, anyone who followed Robos 'announced trades' over the last 12 months was also killed. But nevermind all that, Robo just trades on an Etch'a'Sketch anyway.
Past six months we've had the McDonalds hiring, the Verizon strike and now Fed-Ex, UPS. Bogus seems pretty much to be a pattern.
Don't beat a dead horse Tyler, this is a trading site, we all know how to buy the rumors and sell the news.
a "dead horse?" really? you accept fraud and manipulation? you think ZH should just ignore it?
Eh? I don't think this is a "trading" site. This is an economic news site.
Millions unenmployed while official stats completely faked and fraudulent and we are arguing over a measly 42k jobs? Jesus talk about distracting the collective gaze away from true accounting!
Examining the big mural with an electron microscope again.
Admitting defeat, the new american way.
Jesus will save us...I heard it in Iowa this week.
How can couriers and messenger jobs not be subject to seasonal adjustments? Is this really true?
update: Ok, I saw the full report and...apparently so (although he doesn't really give details). He's also pretty upbeat about the employment situation generally, just not "carried away"
Hmmm, CNBS not mentioning this...in fact, they're uber pumping the beat still....how odd.
On a promising note, Cramer is losing his voice. let us collectively pray for a massive vocal cord detonation.
I watched CNBS for just a few minutes this morning, which is all I could take of the Slope and the Dope.
Cdad still enjoying his BlowHorn [CNBC] free life. Although he did listen to Bloomberg call this a "Blow Out!" number. Lols. Lots of lolololing.
gutting the military budget is JOBs positive!! (good idea but how can that help the economy and jobs) stay tuned for max spin, the light at the end of the tunnel is jobs jobs jobs..now take the blue pill .
i'm gonna get a job as a sock puppet! if RobotTrader can do it, so can i!
couriers and messengers ... sounds like a great career path.
And, it's a great way to stay in shape.
US Treasuries are not buying the report.
if you ain't got no job you don't get counted. it's not the number it's WHO counts the number..dear comrade leader..participation is at 30% with 100% employed is the goal. snap cards thru the roof.
...and equity outflows certain to continue.
All these mysteriously disappearing workforce participants drawing money out of their 401ks to survive.
And let's further disect the 158K left and understand QUALITY and TENURE of those jobs...restaurants and retail are NOT the same as engineering and manufacturing
Bidermans's trim tabs has the actual figure at 38,000 jobs gained in December using government tax data.
http://trimtabs.com/blog/2012/01/05/u-s-economy-adds-only-38000-jobs-in-...
This fraudulent accounting in the government is reaching a level comparable to Madoff. Just how does the BLS transform 38,000 into 200,000? Look in all the peculiar adjustments like Birth-Death, seasonal, and what the heck.
> how does the BLS transform 38,000 into 200,000?
I could tell you, but first you need a PhD in economics from Harvard.
With today's action by the ECB, is QE3 going to come in the form of the ECB printing forcing the hand of the Fed to print?
Get over the QE3 thing already. It's being done as we speak, it just hasn't been announced as such. But it's not working. You can't force liquidity into a market that is debt-saturated. It's over.
You can still force liquidity into the system. I'm not saying it is going to work, but if it comes down to currency wars, then Nash Eq comes into play.
Additionally QE3 is not being done. The Fed has been selling coupons back into the system (reverse QE Stealth).
Futures already sellin it hard? Treasuries calling BS? Gee that didnt last long, lifespan for BS now only minutes...gonna be a TOUGH year for da bulls.
If it's a seasonal "quirk" that has happened the last few years, then why is it not built in to the expectation, rather than a surprise?
A rhetorical question.
'Seasonal quirk' implying it was a 'surprise'. Yea right. Whats surprising to me is what will they do next month when all these mass layoff have to be counted, and all these seasonal temps go bye-bye?
Whats this??? A whistle blower David Greenlaw?....We need to implement NDAA Section 1031 Gitmo in your future, and a little diesel treatment from NY, NY to Florida export wharf...90 miles of choppy seas to FEMA training camp...enjoy. Anyone else want to fuck with our fucked numbers?
it's not a lie if you believe it..motto of CNBC. GE. fed, gov, now all thank the FED and Ben for saving our economy we all can bask in the rosey glow of cnbc cheer.
...and now let's get back to Snooki's adventures on Jersey Shore.
gee.....when will all those unemployed returning vets get counted, or are they still considered on the govt payroll?
The unemployed are now being counted as employed since they are on the government payroll.
Wait for BLS to change those on extended unemployment training programs as being employed or as students. Great way to fix the data.
Not surprised. There are still 13.1 million unemployed.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/06/unemployment-rate-fal...
The trick is for the revisions to be less than the increase in "those no longer participating in the labor market." Wonder if the administration will subsidize the latter to get down to 8% by the time the primaries are over.
It does seem like every administration likes to add its sauce to the unemployment figures. With Bush it was the Birth-Death model. With Obama it was the creation of courier jobs in December, or whatever seasonal adjustment needed to bulk up the year-end.
I am looking for the Obama administration to maneuver the Republicans into cancelling the 99 week unemployment program and rolling back to 52 weeks. That way the unemployment rate can be halved because those past 52 weeks can be considered not looking for work.
We get back to 5% unemployment by elections. Winning.
Only this site can spin things negatively. Unemployment rates also fell broadly & over 75% of industries (the diffusion index) were hiring. The numbers are seasonally adjusted so that "quirk" was accounted for.
Nice Try!!!
So if you take out seasonal adjustments you find out over 525k people have actually lost jobs over each of the last three weeks even though the "real" reported number was less than 380k. You do realize that seasonal adjustments have nothing to do with reality right?
JMT, you should get citizen of the year award for that observation..a stunning example of public education, I applaud you, not
Well at my wife's store in the mall they hired 8 seasonal employees in November. They did have 6 full time employees and two part timers. The seasonal employees are all gone other than one who got a transfer to a part timer to replace one of the two full timers who left last week after hours were cut. So now there are 4 full time employees and three part timers. Average hours other than the store manager, who works 50 hours on salary, have been cut from 36 to 30. Part timers get a maximum of 25 hours. So for the sake of employment, 9 people lost thier jobs but won't be counted as unemployed because 7 were temporary and arent eligible for unemployment and two quit so they aren't eligible either. The net result is +1 job for the seasonal person who got a new part time job. Nine people lost a job, but using BLS math there was actually a net increase in jobs created. Yep sounds right an that is the turmoil at a minimum wage retailer. Imagine the situation higher up the wage chain.
Regarding retail "Temporary Hires"
1) Due to overwhelming & unprecedented demand this season, most of these hires (at least the competent ones) will be kept on and made full time
2) Regarding #1, most retailers did report blowout sales (except sears), those who didn't likely either had poor product offerings or abysmal customer service.
3) Most professional industries are hiring. At least in the Boston area, the problem is finding qualified people and keeping college graduates in the area after graduation.
Check Kitcos silver chart out.....
WTF...????
CHECK THE CHANGE ON THE 1 YEAR AND 6 MONTH LEASE RATES.
They were positive yesterday,and the 1 year was almost 1 %
Coincidence...?
Just keep those H1B visas coming for Ukranian hookers and we'll have 7% unemployment in no time.
Gold and silver just got PPT"d
Fuck you's Timmy and Ben
Note to Bureau of Labor Statistics, ALWAYS use seasonal adjustments to make the jobs higher but never use seasonal adjustments to make the number LOWER on threat of being fired and or sued.
Good people also consistently forget what a "job" is today.
In 1969, a man could go to work and support his family on one income while mom took care of the kids and house. You could practically have something called a "career."
Now it takes 2 full time people just to keep one paycheck ahead of homelessness. If you are over the age of 40, you are shit out of luck in any industry. If you are over 50, you will never work again.
These "jobs" being "created" and reported by BLS are bullshit $8-10/hr pick up jobs with zero benefits and little long term benefit to the macro economy. They are just the lurching pick up work to make the quarterly numbers of some corporation ready to offshore the rest of the company.
America cannot have an economy based on coffee baristas, gift wrappers, check-out girls, TSA molesters and babysitters. Yet there is your future.
When the number of people on Food Stamps starts declining, I'll believe things are getting better. Too bad an illegal family gets more state support than a disenfranchised Citizen.
Long Banana Republic.
Welcome to Obama's Tropico.
In 1969 we didn't have smartphones (that required data plans) and cable TV either and people ate out maybe a few times a year rather than a few times a week..
Cable, Internet + Smartphone (Comcast & Sprint) costs me only = $341 a month combined and that is with no premium or sports channels & no on demand or any other premium service. Sprint added a $10 a month surcharge to every bill and no one complained.
In 1969, the typical 20 something did things but spend (other peoples) money & credit on designer clothing and didn't even have credit cards with $20,000 limits nor 72 month car loans at the age of 22.
And regarding the $8- $10 an hour jobs?? any proof of this?? As I said, at least here in the Boston area and from what I hear in NYC there are many many more openings in higher paying industries than qualified applicants. The migration out of the northeast in the 1990s & early 2000's has led to a labor & skills shortage in cities like Boston & NYC
You say "Cable, Internet + Smartphone (Comcast & Sprint) costs me only = $341 a month ". You clearly have far more cash than brains and have a bizarre way of judging quality of life.
Here in the UK I have Satellite TV, Internet & standard mobile phone for the £/$ equivalent of $75 a month. I think you're being ripped off but given your towering intellect that will be no surprise to anybody except yourself.
Are you trying to say that if people forego smartphones and cable TV and only eat at home, a family could have the same good life on one income as others had in 1969?
You must be one of the biggest morons around here.
Gingerbread house building isn't a year-round profession - damnit!
If you've ever been a poor student, you know that the holidays means UPS and others hire on a whole lot of "part time helpers" for the trucks. They do all the running around, while the drivers basically get to sit back and relax. The job is seasonal, lasts a few weeks tops and is full of long days with no breaks for minimum wage. Injured on the job? Your own problem.
Yep, great jobs eh?