Massive Beat? Not So Fast - Morgan Stanley Warns 42,000 "Jobs" Bogus Due To Seasonal Quirk

Tyler Durden's picture

Enamored with the 200,000 number? Don't be - the reason why the market has basically yawned at this BLS data is that as Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw reports, 42,000 of the 200,000 is basically a seasonal quirk, which will be given back next month, meaning the true adjusted number is 158,000, essentially right on top of the expectation. From David Greenlaw: "some of the strength in this report should be discounted because of an seasonal quirk in the courier category of payrolls (Fed-ex, UPS, etc).  Jobs in this sector jumped 42,000 in December, repeating a pattern seen in 2009 and 2010 (see attached figure).  We should see a payback in next month's report."

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vegas's picture

Gee, nobody could have ever seen this coming.

francis_sawyer's picture

So basically 158,000 is"the new" 200,000...

What impresses me is that we were able to "create or save" 158,000 jobs (needed for the CUSTOMER SERVICE RETURN DESK)...

O'Bummer should declare MLKing day the "new" Christmas (so by Super Tuesday he'll be able to put a 7 handle on UE)...

Eireann go Brach's picture

I can just picture Obama in the Oval office dancing with glee to some JayZ tune, high fiving his butler and dog walker, with a 40 in his hand, shouting "shit I am good, I be killing that employment number yo" while the rest of his staff look on thinking " just how the fuck did this guy get here"!

francis_sawyer's picture

I've actually heard rumors that O'Bama BREWS HIS OWN beer in the White House basement [not kidding]...

So whatever... At least he has ONE redeeming quality...

FMR Bankster's picture

Look for the president to announce a massive summer jobs program that keeps people on the payroll from May thru sometime in mid Sept (whenever the cutoff is to keep the layoffs off the last unemployment release before the election)All stops will be pulled out to produce excellent(bogus) numbers. If the Republicans don't go along he will blast them for being heartless and standing in the way of progress.

YBNguy's picture

He already did with his costly 'youth' summer jobs program as reported on the Drudge the other day.

Add to your comment the controversial OBL leak to sony to make their latest propganda flick. Which just so happens to be released October 2012, just in time to pump up Obama's election chances 'I killed Osama so vote for me!!!'... 

TruthInSunshine's picture

When the labor participation rate for 18 to 55 year olds (or 65 year olds, for that matter) is under 50%, our economy will be the most robust in history, and a new high level (under)water mark of economic empire for the record books (i.e. as long as discouraged people drop out of the labor force at an incrementally higher rate than minimum wage, and to a large degree, seasonal workers get hired - or census worker season allows for expanded hiring - we'll be-a-rockin'.)

Joe Wiesenthal & Andrew Ross-Sorkin will be sexting each other at that proud moment with giddy titillation.

I can hardly wait.


Libertarian777's picture

the irony is in the long run the government liars shoot themselves in the foot.

when reporting the real unemployment number (22%) then a swing of 2 or 3% isn't that significant.

Now they've fudged and continue to fudge the number downward. Someday the unemployment statistic will be showing 5% when in reality it is 25%, and even a 0.1% move in that 5% number will swing the market.

firstdivision's picture

10Y has fallen since the release.....o_O

Village Smithy's picture

Someone was not happy about that, and they magically "fixed" it. Wish I could do that with my underwaters.

firstdivision's picture

I'm  thinking someone is selling thier long equities and rolling into safety.

Surly Bear's picture

'...household survey data for January 2012 will not be directly comparable with that for December 2011 or earlier periods.'


smlbizman's picture

 with the recent attention starting to look at this why  bls so easily rolls into ..B ul L S hit... 

NOTW777's picture

someone better fix the euro quick

 I thot it would take weeks to reach 1.2577 support from fall 2010 but at this rate.......


CPL's picture

Forget europe and move on, it's not worth the air time or oxygen.  My apologies if you are stuck in a trade but you've had 4 years to unwind it.

NOTW777's picture


i'm short the euro; long the dollar

Boston's picture

If the jobs report is better than expected, then Bernanke will have less political cover to print (ie. bring out QE3), so dollar up, Treasuries up, equities down, and gold down.

Perversely, nothing matters anymore.....other than what the markets THINK Bernanke will do......?

dwdollar's picture

No. He will have more political leverage to print since he can claim it worked previously.

Boston's picture

Bob Pisani just agreed with me. Must be true!

SheepDog-One's picture

Gee, so what do they do next month? Rock, hard place.

kindape's picture

...unless many of the 155,000 expectations also included the 42,000 (or some portion) seasonal quirk...


in any case, we could get down to 4% unemployment and if Euro goes its great depression x 10..(ie. employment #s not real important in scheme - good or bad)

AU5K's picture

Unexpected positive anomaly, comrades !  Please avert eyes.  There is much growth in the economy.

blindfaith's picture

Five people in the car pool.  They all make between 60 and 100K.  By the end of the year there will be four in that car pool.  The 'work' the fifth person did will be absorbed by the remaining four, and each of them are facing a 10% pay cut.

The company reports record earnings. 

The governmnet reports improved productivity.

Any questions?

JPM Hater001's picture

Perhaps not.  Federal Express could just continue to deliver Obama good news all year long.

SheepDog-One's picture

Maybe by next month theyll finally add in all the mass layoffs from Sears, K-Mart, etc.

Nah, not enamored by these numbers nor rolled out the red carpet for Obama or QE. Sellin it.

mtthw2's picture

but MSM loves it.  The news is all good--The world is saved.


JPM Hater001's picture

Stewart Varney called this "very good news" and did mention the 50K dropping out but called this "moving in the right direction."\

Um, what direction is that Stew?  Bizaro-land?

NOTW777's picture

listen to the talking heads - they only care about one job - obamas; this is all about the king

SheepDog-One's picture

Lowest approval rating of any president at this time...and this 1 phony report wont change that.

NOTW777's picture

its remarkable that they not only relate the employment #s almost solely to obama but also blatantly target "election day" - after that they don't care, unless, of course they lose their job

SheepDog-One's picture

And they will be losing their jobs as well, first thing to go in a hard tyranny is the media. No longer any use for them after its all in place. Just 1 govt blowhorn, Pravda style, is all thats needed.

RobotTrader's picture

Bottom line is this:


Anyone reading the 100 "hysteria" articles posted per month here and going short stocks has been killed.

There can't be a single bear left still alive with their trading accounts still intact.

Unless you were short junior gold stocks.

SheepDog-One's picture

Equities sit at levels lower than 2011 mid year....Robo whips it furiously, and laments his 'Gold has topped out here at $900, Im sellin all mine'.

John Law Lives's picture

The S&P 500 at 1,281.06 (yesterday's close) would be within two points of the closing price of 1,279.64 on January 29, 1999.

Considering how much public debt has been created since then, how many toxic assets the Fed added to its balance sheet since then, and how much the value of the US Dollar has fallen since January 29, 1999, I would say that is not too impressive.  Conveniently, Mr. Robo-Magoo excludes that information.



SheepDog-One's picture

Well Robo is so IMPRESSED though!

kindape's picture

that will probably not be true forever, but has a great deal of truth to it for sure.  (and to get to forever one needs an intact trading account,,,)

firstdivision's picture

It's called "timing"

*I'm not @credittrader, but a fan of his work*

GMadScientist's picture

Yep, long SDS at 19 and change and selling at 26 really wiped me out.

Oh's time to load up again!

WonderDawg's picture

Ah, Robo, we're still below last year's high in the US equities markets. Did you not notice that? Did you not notice that the larger trend is down? Some trader you are.

I'll say this: the highs for the year in the US equities markets will be made this month. If we haven't hit it already, we probably will within the next week. From there, the bears will be validated and compensated.


SheepDog-One's picture

Also, anyone who followed Robos 'announced trades' over the last 12 months was also killed. But nevermind all that, Robo just trades on an Etch'a'Sketch anyway. 

BlueStreet's picture

Past six months we've had the McDonalds hiring, the Verizon strike and now Fed-Ex, UPS.  Bogus seems pretty much to be a pattern.  



LawsofPhysics's picture

Don't beat a dead horse Tyler, this is a trading site, we all know how to buy the rumors and sell the news.

NOTW777's picture

a "dead horse?"  really?  you accept fraud and manipulation?  you think ZH should just ignore it?

tmosley's picture

Eh?  I don't think this is a "trading" site.  This is an economic news site.

vast-dom's picture

Millions unenmployed while official stats completely faked and fraudulent and we are arguing over a measly 42k jobs? Jesus talk about distracting the collective gaze away from true accounting!

SheepDog-One's picture

Examining the big mural with an electron microscope again.

Admitting defeat, the new american way.