As A Matter Of Evidence

Tyler Durden's picture

Via Mark Grant, author of Out of the Box,

"Circumstantial evidence is a very tricky thing. It may seem to point very straight to one thing, but if you shift your own point of view a little, you may find it pointing in an equally uncompromising manner to something entirely different."
                          -Sherlock Holmes
The article referenced the tremendous shrinkage in lending of the banks of Europe. It pointed specifically to the French banks and how they were setting up for all funding to be at the local level and to stop funding from the parent banks in France. The article concentrated on the notion that the French banks were setting up for some kind of break-up in the Eurozone. To me, though, there was ever more than met the eye at first thinking, meaning what happens after reading. It is relatively simple to read some headline or story and absorb it; much more complicated and useful to think through the meaning of what is presented. Here, past the obvious, was a rather large indicator for the Emerging Markets and their bonds as these entities are primarily funded by the European banks so that lending here, one may realistically surmise, is shrinking dramatically so that first the Emerging Markets will shrink as funding dries up and then their bonds will spike in yield and their equities fall as their main basis of support is pulled. I think now that whatever play anyone got in the Emerging Markets is now done and I would be pulling in my horns from these markets. As Europe bounces off various walls and as the American banks will have little to do with these areas; the play is over and I suggest a thoughtful retreat.
Amid all of the talk of Union and the greater good and the trumpeting of the three Musketeer’s “One for all and all for one;” we are about to get some concrete answers to help illuminate our path ahead. Greece has come nowhere close to their agreements in the Memorandum of Understanding with the European Union and the IMF and we are about to be able to view the whites of their eyes. Will Germany agree to more funding or not; this is the primary question and one that is about to be addressed. I do not believe there is a rational person on the planet that thinks that Greece can repay its debts; today, tomorrow or at any point in the future so is it to be another $50 billion as requested by the Greeks, debt forgiveness and a huge cutback in expectations or is it to finally be the end of the road and an end to the charade? The response will center on the ECB and their absorption of $238 billion in direct Greek sovereign debt coupled with their exposure to God only knows how much in securitizations moved from the European banks onto their balance sheet. Did you think that the decrease in the exposure of the European banks to Greece was sold into the marketplace? Ah no my friends, it was just repackaged and moved onto the balance sheet of the ECB and so hidden from us which was a clever ploy I suppose in the short term but one that is turning out to be quite painful as losses surely mount and as various credits stop payment. The calculators must be running night and day in Berlin as the Germans try to figure out just how much pain they are able to bear but debt paid by even more debt almost always proves to be a scheme that fails in the end. The plan is almost certainly foundering so that the only real question now is “when is the end” and the answer to that; we may soon be given.
“Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history.”
                           -Winston Churchill
The Great Game
The Europeans have played the Great Game badly; are playing it badly and there will be consequences for their failures. All of this nonsense with Greece, with Spain, could have been avoided by telling the truth about the numbers, by not goose stepping with plans meant to mislead instead of illuminating the truth, with trying to hide the self-evident and presenting scams as solutions or by addressing the size of firewalls instead of trying to cure the sickness of the nations that lie within them. The indefensible schemes that have been foisted upon us reflect errors in judgment that are not just wrong headed in conceptualization but just plain dumb. The trivialized minds in Brussels and Berlin have vastly underestimated the intelligence of the people that matter, the institutional investors that are required to fund their programs and pick your language, “Nein, Non, No” is the growing response that is echoed down the hallways of finance from one institution to the next, from one nation to the next.
“Out of the Box” is not the Financial Times or the Wall Street Journal but then it does not need to be for me to assess the reaction of those that matter which are the world’s large institutional investors. The savants in Brussels and Berlin think that it is the hedge funds or other speculators that are causing the yields to rise for Italy, Spain and the rest but they are 100% wrong. It is the real money institutions that are fleeing and moving fast. The debt at the ECB can be expanded and the local institutions can be pressured by their sovereigns but, in the end, there is not enough money in these institutions to fund the European experiment. I can report to you with certainty that many large institutional investors will no longer play, will not fund, as they have been consistently lied to and abused by the European Union and her various branches. The first European bank stress tests were a sham as manipulated by incorrect data and the second one was falsified by its methodology and the projected 120% debt to GDP ratio for Greece was little more than the antics of a fool while the baloney about the $125 billion for the Spanish banks that would not affect the country of Spain is a fairytale with the same substance as Snow White and her dwarfs. There is no Prince, there are no glass slippers and the bills have to be paid and the money to pay them will not be found in the pot of gold at the end of some rainbow. Day by day and month by month the bills accumulate and there is not enough capital left in Europe to pay them unless the Germans are willing to have the same standard of living as those in Greece and that will not be happening so that it can be foretold that the play will end badly. It is not economics that will determine the end of the European fantasy but politics. If it were just economics I could have given you the date of the end long ago but fiscal and monetary policies have long ago given way to machinations of the political system in Europe but the lies and deceit only have a lifespan that is so long and so the trend, regardless of the daily fluctuations, is set in place. Down goes the Euro, up goes the Dollar, up go Treasury prices, down go European bond prices, down goes the equity markets, the recession worsens, the contagion spreads until the counting houses are out of money and the printing presses only print paper and some German in some political party rises that says, “Enough!”
At the end of a battle during World War II a Soviet General was quoted; "We gained 22,000 square miles of territory which is just enough to bury our dead.”

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buzzsaw99's picture

I can report to you with certainty that many large institutional investors will no longer play, will not fund, as they have been consistently lied to and abused by the European Union and her various branches...

With the exception of calpers and fidelity. They'll buy anything.

Badabing's picture

"Unless the Germans are willing to have the same standard of living as those in Greece"

why does Germany have to pay? make the bankers pay!!!  fucking banks

buzzsaw99's picture

Early retirement, more vacation, better weather, better food, all on credit. The Germans only wish they had the living standard of Greece.

GetZeeGold's picture



I'm a recent Icelandic I'm not paying jack.


duo's picture

it all goes down the the idea that the only use of young people is to work to provide free stuff the the old.

If people had saved and there was no inflation, the demographic implosion (low birth rates) shouldn't be feared.

Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

Perishable goods must be produced around the same time they are consumed.  Services must be produced and consumed at the same time.


If people saved...  they would have spent less while they were working, lower demand would have lowered prices in the older generation's working years, then they would have more money to spend in retirement, higher demand with lower supply means higher prices.  Lower prices followed by higher prices is inflation.

RiverRoad's picture

One day the sheeple of the world will wake up and say, "Why the hell should we service their fraudulent debt?!"

CuriousPasserby's picture

Make the bankers pay? Do you not realize that the banks are bankrupt and have no equity left? Do you not realize that if the bankers pay they will do it with your checking account, your parents' 401(k) and your grandparents' union pension money? Do you have any idea how the financial system works?

Badabing's picture

i realize it! make them pay by defaulting!!!!!!!!!!!


fucking banks

RiverRoad's picture

And if politics doesn't end the European fantasy, the BOND MARKETS will.

icetears's picture

I will try to follow your tips. Maybe this is the best way to do it.

free games online | enjoy dress up

GMadScientist's picture

Until midnight, you were one of those.

anarchitect's picture

"the bills have to be paid and the money to pay them will not be found in the pot of gold at the end of some rainbow."

That's precisely where the money might be found. The Eurozone has lots of gold, 10K tonnes if official figures can be trusted, and much of it lies at the end of a rainbow that spans the Atlantic, terminating at the NY Fed. Devaluing against gold is perhaps the only way that all profligate nations can get out of this mess.  Of course, the NY Fed might refuse to return the Europeans' gold.

LULZBank's picture

People left holding fiat wont be so happy. Perhaps the "gold to the moon" shuttle needs to be officially and publically ignited, so that the Elites can piss on the poor "You should have bought gold when we told you to" while paying off their liabilities with cheap gold.

Getting Old Sucks's picture

Totally agree with your last sentence.  The FED needs at least 8K tons to make up for what they stole since the 1950's.

bugfixx's picture

There is no way that any of that gold is unencumbered. There are probably multiple competing claims on all of it. The central banksters have monetized everything dozens of times over.

LULZBank's picture

Money printed today, borrowed from future, spend on over-inflated assets, in never ending cycles... What could go wrong?

youngman's picture

They need to start bouncing some checks.....then they will figure it out....expenses are more than revenues....what to do..what to do...simple eh?

LULZBank's picture

Not possible when you write checks to yourself and then cash them with another form of checks (promissory notes).

RobotTrader's picture

ES surging again, now over 1350.


"Like It Never Even Happened"

Tirpitz's picture

"in the end, there is not enough money in these institutions to fund the European experiment"

Oh, there is - and it is already spent. Write the debts off, slaugther careless lenders, start over.

"unless the Germans are willing to have the same standard of living as those in Greece"

For many Germans the standard of living is already lower than that of many Greeks. Having to support some of Europe's largest ongoing bank bailouts don't come cheap...

RobotTrader's picture

All the hedge funds are shorting gold and silver again at these levels, testing to see if we get another failure.

Will it work again?

Tirpitz's picture

The charts suggest the metals are ready to take off. Seasonals kicking in? Long silver.

BudFox2012's picture

Doubt it.  Gold seems to have very strong support just under $1600, and silver in the $26.50 ballpark.  Nothing they have done recently has been able to break through these levels, so unless there is a major event, I don't forsee either dropping much at all.  If another QE is lauchned, just the opposite will happen.

SheepDog-One's picture

We gots a PLAN, bitchez! Just keep buyin stocks and we'll tell ya later! ;D

Stuck on Zero's picture

An alien invasion is needed quickly.


TWSceptic's picture

Or find a way to resurrect Hitler. Keynesian economics FTW!

adr's picture

It is like your lawyer presenting mountains of evidence, including video of someone else commiting the crime, proving your innocence.

But the Judge and jury look at the prosecutor, in this case any central banker, and he says you're guilty while presenting no evidence.

You look at the jury and they look back at you with the expression of, oh yeah you're guilty. That prosecutor is never wrong.

Inthemix96's picture

Come on folks, lets work this out in a time honoured, and easily justified manner please.

Shoot the mother fuckers, and skin their corpses, and feed the shit to the dogs.

Tried and tested, never fails to improve the overal situational situation.

LULZBank's picture

But why be cruel to dogs?

Inthemix96's picture

My bad mate,

OK, I've has a thought, burn them, pile the fuckers up, coat them in an even coating of gasoline, and light away.

(information), no dogs were harmed during this process.

Joe A's picture

Thanks goodness the only fairy tales in the US are coming from Disney and not from the FED. Oh wait.

falak pema's picture

tell me ONE first world region that has played the game "well". Then we'll talk!

icanhasbailout's picture

The bills have to be paid? Perhaps we should examine this assertion more closely. Bills for what, paid to whom? Odious debt ought to be defaulted, those who contracted it punished, those who lent it beggared.

Sweet Chicken's picture



Burn these bitchez and tell them to shove their debt up their asses!

sdmjake's picture

You and your silly common sense...i love it.

ejgej's picture

Still hoping Europe is hiding more debt than others? Hope an pray, pray and hope.

Pray Ecb will not monetize as the Fed has already done in the last 4 years, and hope Cds crash will arrive just after an Euro dismail.However Ecb still has more powder than Fed, the debt is much less, and legally Ecb has much more Gold than the Fed, even if kept in Fed's vaults.

Pray and hope everybody Europe will fail before Cds crack, otherwise....

RiverRoad's picture

"Possession" is 9/10ths of the law:  what do you think our military is for?

ejgej's picture

i'm afraid you're quite right, until a military is a deterrent for compromise. But if there's no space for a compromise, that would mean soon or later war....

BLOTTO's picture

' There is no Prince, there are no glass slippers and the bills have to be paid and the money to pay them will not be found in the pot of gold at the end of some rainbow.'


- I am going to have to respectfully disagree.

The Prince IS alive and well - soon to be a King. Return of the King, Rise of the Dark Night, etc...and every other movie the past few years is full blast occult. (Twlight, HArry Potter, Hunger Games, Various Animations, etc.)

2012 London Games Olympic Opening Ceremony with over 1 BILLION people watching (1/7 of worlds population) 'they' will show us the lovely country side of Glastonbury...with real live farm animals...sheep, horses, total:

119 animals. Not 110 or 120...but 119 animals.

Why do they want to show over ONE BILLION PEOPLE the country side of - Glastonbury?

Glastonbury has been described as a New Age community which attracts people with New Age and Neopagan beliefs, and is notable for myths and legends often related to Glastonbury Tor, concerning Joseph of Arimathea, the Holy Grail and King Arthur

In 1191, monks at the abbey claimed to have found the graves of Arthur and Guinevere to the south of the Lady Chapel of the Abbey Church, which was visited by a number of contemporary historians including Giraldus Cambrensis     (wiki:glastonbury)


Also during opening ceremony, a poem well be read from Shakepeare's 'the Tempest' and another poem called, 'Jerusalem.'

The official Olympic song will be 'Survival' by Muse.

Get ready for a huge symbolic OCCULT SHIT SHOW from our Luciferian Masters tomorrow...


Reality is their illusion...

Their FICTION - IS the reality.

fpajak's picture

Bonjour, ici Paris, France:
- Europe is a 50 years old work in progess and it will continue.
- Breaking apart Europe is THE american dream since the begining of Europe because € is a new currency reserve that fully compete with the $ ; and € is now as strong as the $ (in a 12 years lifetime only),
- USA has been for a long time the most powerfull country in the world. With Europe, its game over. And with China, game over again for USA. USA will have to fully share its power with the other 2 in the next 10 years.
- USA is trying everyday to destroy Europe (divide to reign) : with UK (spying and blocking europe construction), Greece (debt bubble made by GS), 100% US/UK newspappers bearish on Europe (including ZH) and trying to stimulate the division between europeans...
- This is very unlikely to work, american should stop dreaming of it and focus on their own problems, destroying Europe to reign on ruins is a loosy strategy that will not save America ..
- Yes Greece (and or Spain) will leave the Eurozone: no big deal, we are 27. And very soon Russia, this is our Joker, and China next.
- In the next 10 years China and Europe will do business worldwide (including oil) without any $ involved, only € and yuan.
- € and yuan have a brighter futur than $. Then next currency reserve will be a mix of € and yuan. € can only go up, and $ can only go down.
- Look at a map of the worl: USA is isolated on an island, like UK. Wherease Europe-Russia-China-India are on a unique continent.
- Europe can grow East with unlimited natural and human ressources.
- In 50 years USA will be the periphery of the world, because you can walk from Beijing to Paris though Moscow and Berlin.

=> Be very very bullish on €






Inthemix96's picture

Hello mate,

You can walk from Beijing to Paris through Moscow and Berlin?  Really?  Prove it.

And you better be back by tea time, or you wont get your dinner you stupid cunt.

TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

It only takes 20 million steps to walk around the World.

These 6 did it, "in one way or another".  Of course you are so right- they werenT back in time for tea; however, they did meet a lot of stupid cunts on their journeys.

ejgej's picture

Just a matter of time, guy. Last year it was Hu Jintao, the China boss, that proposed on official meetings in Europe to connect Beijing to London via Russia with high speed train, that would cut the cost and times for chinese goods penetration in Europe.

Chinese have the vision and the means to do it. Maybe you won't have to walk from Beijing to Paris, you'll get a train. About going straight from Paris to Beijing, call Jim Rogers, he already made it twice bt car in his journey