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Bullish. This means new home buyers have more cash to invest in CMG.
Housing will continue to slide, until we stop bleeding jobs. Both go hand and hand
Bleeding jobs, just a symptom of the mortally wounded terminal economy.
For those who are still on the sidelines regarding further fiscal and monetary stimulus, I hope this chart demonstrates the CRISIS in aggregate demand that America is facing. I'm sorry to say it, but HARP is simply insufficient to stimulate adequate demand for real estate. Boosting real estate prices is NOT a simple endeavour and it will require maturity and perseverance from our Federal Reserve and government officials, which I regret to say has been lacking as of late. Our Fed officials need to severely ramp up MBS monetization and congress needs to consider expanding HARP to illegal aliens if necessary. Its time we lived up to the devastating implications of a decline in real estate prices and faced this problem head on so that our children do not have to pay the price for our indecisiveness.
How about we just let the market work. We need a reset
The Census series isn't worth much, it's a painfully small sample size, only covers single family homes, and doesn't take into account contract cancellations.
Plus, volume is so low that the median price is going to be impacted by unit mix (types and sizes of homes selling). A better way to look at it is price per square foot, which for all new homes has been stabilizing as we go into fall at about $160 per square foot. By way of comparison it got down to $128 per square foot in November 2009, the low.
A house should be max $50/SqFt - i.e. double what it costs to build it - unless you're an empire, a paper tiger, who produces and exports less than it import and consumes - in which case you need sector bubbles, like a dotcom-bubble, a military contractor and waepons manufacturers-bubble (orchestrated by war after war), and housing-bubble and stocks & bonds bubbles (yet to POP)....
forget EU bank troubles - focus on US Empire garbage paper troubles... they will explode in your face this winter - and yes, home prices/equity and thus US real asset holdings will continue to deteriorate because they're still significantly over prized relative to real income and real employment and real gdp, none of which will improve - because empires do not improve, i.e. correct their immoral exploitations - they fade and crash and die.
I agree entirely. Jobs have NOTHING to with housing, unless your job is...you guessed it: building houses! However the vast majority of the unemployment in the US is NOT in the construction industry.
What should be done is also what's political suicide: dismantle and liquidate Fannie and Freddie, end all housing subsidies, let the market crash by another whatever it will be, 30-50%. So a $700K house becomes a $300K house that people can afford. The declining property taxes will force states to liquidate their debt (or raise taxes, unfortunately).
Basically a reversal of the Austrian "false boom"/"business cycle" that lasted from 2001-2007.
Raising house prices by artificial means is an extremely expensive and inefficient Keynesian/Central Planning whatever idea.
I am not convinced by Austrian economics, but I do call "BS" whenever anyone links housing to jobs.
Many lawyers, etc. healthcare people are unemployed and they have nothing whatsoever to do with housing.
There will never be real demand for real estate until the price is allowed to fall in line with income. Real estate has been artifcially inflated for a few years now and HARP will only make it worse. Real estate NEEDS to crash
Perhaps if the PTB stopped harping everything would be fine?
this doesn't go anywhere near far enough. We need to expand to foreigners who don't even live here. Home ownership is a basic HUMAN right and expanding that to more diversity must be a firm priority for the US. We daily see pictures and video of africans squatting in huts and on the dirt; why not provide them with housing? It will put America back to work. Additionally, HARP must be expanded to include 2nd, 3rd, and 4th houses. Families these days, especially mexican ones, are very large and housing can be cramped, so additional units can be owned with the government backstopping the loans, which will have vast economic benefits. I mean, who doesn't own 3 or 4 cars now and those need to be garaged someplace, don't they? This solution kills a lot of birds with just one stone.
Home ownership is NOT a basic human right. Only responsible people should own homes. The subprime problem was created because we tried to get everyone to own a home. Very bad idea!
... and US Empire needs boddies (he with the most people eventually wins) - so open US borders and give no-income-necessary-home-loans to everybody - THEN, US EMpire can continue to create 100x leverage and sell it to the people who work in this world: China and Germany - oops, maybe they're not so eager to buy garbage paper anymore -
allright sell US garbage paper to Martians - who're expected to arrive on the scene any day now as US Empire collapses and needs massive distractions to occupy its citizens....
There is probably nothing else in the history of the human race that has been more subsidized, propped-up, encouraged, nervously monitored, tinkered with and plied with government involvement than housing.
And yet housing is at the very root of the debt-fueled global economic fiasco we’re in.
And if we ever want to know how it was possible that such a mess ever occurred in the first place, we need look no further than asshats like you continually calling for MORE government involvement, and more involvement from the private banking cartel, the Federal Reserve.
It’s dispiriting and discouraging to think we may never get out of the mess that asshats like you have brought upon us. Though I suspect generating discouragement is why you've been sent here to begin with.
Take your aggregate demand Keynesian bullshit and shove it in your ass, back where it came from.
Yeah, its too bad there isn't some kind of jobs bill that the congress could pass.
It'll slide well beyond that point since so many people were burned last time around.
It's worse than anyone is reporting (except me):
our job market WAS housing for over a decade. Everybody worked in something connected to that.
Bullish and TRANSITORY ... as NAR will no doubt explain shortly.
Case shiller dead on. CHANGE? YES WE CAN!
In another twenty months houses will be free!
Zero down, no incoem, no assets and no-need-to-pay your mortgage ....this is where it gets you.
Exactly, no surprise it beat the 300k exp, lower the price = find more buyers, hence a supply shortage. According to the findings anyway
And the front page of proaganda cnbc report.....
New Home Sales Rose More than Expected
New Home Sales Rose More than Expected
Praise the Lord! Now won't you buy me a Benz!
Biggest ever, bitchez.
Refi bitchez. Oops too far underwater. Jingle mail bitchez
its time for an avatar change.
Lemme guess....WILDLY bullish?
Is this what happens as people drop off of Extended Unemployment?
7-10 more years of price declines will bring the US housing market back to where it should be 2day..
Yep, and still the economy will be dead, unless we get a new economy where the govt prints money and hands it to everyone to order fast food to employ more delivery drivers.
Might not take that long. The key point is acceptance that the avg new home will be 2000 sq feet. The vacant 4000 sq foot homes will likely be bulldozed after they become a hazard.
Would you like a McMansion with those fries?
New home size? My guess is 1,200 -1,500 sq ft, 2-3br, 1 or 1 1/2 bath ... About 1955 -1970 sizes, iows. On lots sizes of 1/4 acre or less, depending on location in US.
If you buy one make sure it has good sun exposure and soil for a back yard garden/fruit trees... and make damn sure they don't use pressed wood on the roof or siding, hold out for plywood.
"The key point is acceptance that the avg new home will be 2000 sq feet."
Your thinking is still affected by bubble conditions.
When people figure out they can raise a family very nicely in 1100 sq feet,
2000 sq ft will once again be a mansion. When 21st century tax reality sets
in, not many will be able to afford them.(like in the 50's)
Perhaps someone will figure out how to make money ripping off those stupid
French hip roofs, add a second story to convert 4000 sq ft abortions into very
This will only work where public transportation makes them accessible to jobs,
otherwise they will be bulldozed as you predict.
Affordable housing bullshit here we come!
Some worry about criminals, gang bangers, bikers, and zombies when TSHTF. I worry about 55 year old Re/Max agents that have fallen much further down the lifestyle scale. They are really going to be angry and desperate.
Indeed. The modern world has never witnessed hordes of white-collar barbarians in expired-lease Mercedes S300s, predating upon the last remnants of civil society. "Going Postal" may be replaced in the vernacular with "Falling Down Moment."
"Falling Down Moment" well said
Now that's an avatar.
you should use it ! .. If not would you mind if i get next dibs ?
Not at all -- William Foster is all yours...and never forget the old expression: the customer is always right.
Bullish for REO mgrs and agents that is.
Homes are still 33% overvalued when priced in gold. Buy at your peril.
Home ownership is a crummy investment for most Americans whom are hamstrung by uncertain job markets, as well as county, municipal, and state taxes that are increasing all the time. If you own a home and are not using it to produce income, you are better off leasing where you can stay mobile and liquid, says I.
Anyway - pass the peas suckers
I agree, 100%.
Many people stay mobile by living in their car.
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