Median US New Home Price Has Biggest 3 Month Drop Ever

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Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:22 | 1812271 HelluvaEngineer
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Bullish. This means new home buyers have more cash to invest in CMG.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:22 | 1812279 Shocker
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Housing will continue to slide, until we stop bleeding jobs. Both go hand and hand



Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:24 | 1812291 SheepDog-One
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Bleeding jobs, just a symptom of the mortally wounded terminal economy.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:37 | 1812369 MillionDollarBonus_
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For those who are still on the sidelines regarding further fiscal and monetary stimulus, I hope this chart demonstrates the CRISIS in aggregate demand that America is facing. I'm sorry to say it, but HARP is simply insufficient to stimulate adequate demand for real estate. Boosting real estate prices is NOT a simple endeavour and it will require maturity and perseverance from our Federal Reserve and government officials, which I regret to say has been lacking as of late. Our Fed officials need to severely ramp up MBS monetization and congress needs to consider expanding HARP to illegal aliens if necessary. Its time we lived up to the devastating implications of a decline in real estate prices and faced this problem head on so that our children do not have to pay the price for our indecisiveness.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:40 | 1812416 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

How about we just let the market work. We need a reset

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:54 | 1812501 redpill
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The Census series isn't worth much, it's a painfully small sample size, only covers single family homes, and doesn't take into account contract cancellations.

Plus, volume is so low that the median price is going to be impacted by unit mix (types and sizes of homes selling).  A better way to look at it is price per square foot, which for all new homes has been stabilizing as we go into fall at about $160 per square foot.  By way of comparison it got down to $128 per square foot in November 2009, the low.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:40 | 1813286 eureka
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A house should be max $50/SqFt - i.e. double what it costs to build it - unless you're an empire, a paper tiger, who produces and exports less than it import and consumes - in which case you need sector bubbles, like a dotcom-bubble, a military contractor and waepons manufacturers-bubble (orchestrated by war after war), and housing-bubble and stocks & bonds bubbles (yet to POP)....

forget EU bank troubles - focus on US Empire garbage paper troubles... they will explode in your face this winter - and yes, home prices/equity and thus US real asset holdings will continue to deteriorate because they're still significantly over prized relative to real income and real employment and real gdp, none of which will improve - because empires do not improve, i.e. correct their immoral exploitations - they fade and crash and die.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 17:18 | 1918667 halflink123
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I agree entirely.  Jobs have NOTHING to with housing, unless your job guessed it: building houses!  However the vast majority of the unemployment in the US is NOT in the construction industry.

What should be done is also what's political suicide: dismantle and liquidate Fannie and Freddie, end all housing subsidies, let the market crash by another whatever it will be, 30-50%.  So a $700K house becomes a $300K house that people can afford.  The declining property taxes will force states to liquidate their debt (or raise taxes, unfortunately).

Basically a reversal of the Austrian "false boom"/"business cycle" that lasted from 2001-2007.

Raising house prices by artificial means is an extremely expensive and inefficient Keynesian/Central Planning whatever idea.

I am not convinced by Austrian economics, but I do call "BS" whenever anyone links housing to jobs.

Many lawyers, etc. healthcare people are unemployed and they have nothing whatsoever to do with housing.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:42 | 1812426 afdestruction
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There will never be real demand for real estate until the price is allowed to fall in line with income. Real estate has been artifcially inflated for a few years now and HARP will only make it worse. Real estate NEEDS to crash

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:43 | 1812436 Schmuck Raker
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F**k Yeah!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:45 | 1812447 disabledvet
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Perhaps if the PTB stopped harping everything would be fine?

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:55 | 1812509 trav7777
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this doesn't go anywhere near far enough.  We need to expand to foreigners who don't even live here.  Home ownership is a basic HUMAN right and expanding that to more diversity must be a firm priority for the US.  We daily see pictures and video of africans squatting in huts and on the dirt; why not provide them with housing?  It will put America back to work.  Additionally, HARP must be expanded to include 2nd, 3rd, and 4th houses.  Families these days, especially mexican ones, are very large and housing can be cramped, so additional units can be owned with the government backstopping the loans, which will have vast economic benefits.  I mean, who doesn't own 3 or 4 cars now and those need to be garaged someplace, don't they?  This solution kills a lot of birds with just one stone.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 11:18 | 1812643 Snidley Whipsnae
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LOL... +1

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:48 | 1813310 ZeroHedgeFan
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Home ownership is NOT a basic human right. Only responsible people should own homes. The subprime problem was created because we tried to get everyone to own a home. Very bad idea!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:57 | 1813366 eureka
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... and US Empire needs boddies (he with the most people eventually wins) - so open US borders and give no-income-necessary-home-loans to everybody - THEN, US EMpire can continue to create 100x leverage and sell it to the people who work in this world: China and Germany - oops, maybe they're not so eager to buy garbage paper anymore -

allright sell US garbage paper to Martians - who're expected to arrive on the scene any day now as US Empire collapses and needs massive distractions to occupy its citizens....

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 11:06 | 1812580 quacker
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There is probably nothing else in the history of the human race that has been more subsidized, propped-up, encouraged, nervously monitored, tinkered with and plied with government involvement than housing.

And yet housing is at the very root of the debt-fueled global economic fiasco we’re in.

And if we ever want to know how it was possible that such a mess ever occurred in the first place, we need look no further than asshats like you continually calling for MORE government involvement, and more involvement from the private banking cartel, the Federal Reserve.

It’s dispiriting and discouraging to think we may never get out of the mess that asshats like you have brought upon us. Though I suspect generating discouragement is why you've been sent here to begin with.


Wed, 10/26/2011 - 11:42 | 1812783 MrPike
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Take your aggregate demand Keynesian bullshit and shove it in your ass, back where it came from.    

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:35 | 1813256 MarcusLCrassus
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Yeah, its too bad there isn't some kind of jobs bill that the congress could pass. 


Oh wait...

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:25 | 1812297 devo
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It'll slide well beyond that point since so many people were burned last time around.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:40 | 1812408 johngaltfla
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It's worse than anyone is reporting (except me):

September New Home Sales: Ends the Worst New Home Selling Season in History
Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:49 | 1812473 trav7777
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our job market WAS housing for over a decade.  Everybody worked in something connected to that.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:33 | 1812359 Snidley Whipsnae
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Bullish and TRANSITORY ... as NAR will no doubt explain shortly.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:21 | 1812272 SGS
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Case shiller dead on.  CHANGE? YES WE CAN!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:30 | 1812341 Ancona
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In another twenty months houses will be free!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 11:01 | 1812543 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Zero down, no incoem, no assets and no-need-to-pay your mortgage ....this is where it gets you.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:21 | 1812273 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Exactly, no surprise it beat the 300k exp, lower the price = find more buyers, hence a supply shortage. According to the findings anyway

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:27 | 1812316 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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And the front page of proaganda cnbc report.....

New Home Sales Rose More than Expected

Praise the Lord!  Now won't you buy me a Benz!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:21 | 1812274 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Biggest ever, bitchez.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:23 | 1812276 LongBallsShortBrains
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Refi bitchez. Oops too far underwater. Jingle mail bitchez

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:37 | 1812390 Central Bankster
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its time for an avatar change.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:22 | 1812284 SheepDog-One
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Lemme guess....WILDLY bullish?

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:23 | 1812286 bob_dabolina
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Is this what happens as people drop off of Extended Unemployment?

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:25 | 1812288 ddtrader
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7-10 more years of price declines will bring the US housing market back to where it should be 2day..

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:27 | 1812308 SheepDog-One
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Yep, and still the economy will be dead, unless we get a new economy where the govt prints money and hands it to everyone to order fast food to employ more delivery drivers.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:28 | 1812327 HelluvaEngineer
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Might not take that long.  The key point is acceptance that the avg new home will be 2000 sq feet.  The vacant 4000 sq foot homes will likely be bulldozed after they become a hazard.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:38 | 1812392 Taterboy
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Would you like a McMansion with those fries?

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:48 | 1812468 Snidley Whipsnae
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New home size? My guess is 1,200 -1,500 sq ft, 2-3br, 1 or 1 1/2 bath ... About 1955 -1970 sizes, iows. On lots sizes of 1/4 acre or less, depending on location in US.

If you buy one make sure it has good sun exposure and soil for a back yard garden/fruit trees... and make damn sure they don't use pressed wood on the roof or siding, hold out for plywood.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:14 | 1812928 TruthHunter
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"The key point is acceptance that the avg new home will be 2000 sq feet."


Your thinking is still affected by bubble conditions.

 When people figure out they can raise a family very nicely in 1100 sq feet,

2000 sq ft will once again be a mansion.  When 21st century tax reality sets

in, not many will be able to afford them.(like in the 50's)


Perhaps someone will figure out how to make money ripping off those stupid

French hip roofs, add a second story to convert 4000 sq ft abortions into very

nice 4plexes.


This will only work where public transportation makes them accessible to jobs,

otherwise they will be bulldozed as you predict.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:25 | 1812298 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Affordable housing bullshit here we come!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:26 | 1812303 hedgeless_horseman
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Some worry about criminals, gang bangers, bikers, and zombies when TSHTF. I worry about 55 year old Re/Max agents that have fallen much further down the lifestyle scale. They are really going to be angry and desperate.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:35 | 1812370 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Indeed. The modern world has never witnessed hordes of white-collar barbarians in expired-lease Mercedes S300s, predating upon the last remnants of civil society. "Going Postal" may be replaced in the vernacular with "Falling Down Moment."

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 11:08 | 1812591 peekcrackers
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Don Brinam

"Falling Down Moment" well said

great movie!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 11:32 | 1812724 Don Birnam
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Now that's an avatar.


Wed, 10/26/2011 - 11:37 | 1812753 peekcrackers
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you should use it ! .. If not would you mind if i get next  dibs ?

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:28 | 1813006 Don Birnam
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Not at all -- William Foster is all yours...and never forget the old expression: the customer is always right.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:26 | 1812305 Obvious Paradox
Obvious Paradox's picture

Bullish for REO mgrs and agents that is.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:27 | 1812307 devo
devo's picture

Homes are still 33% overvalued when priced in gold. Buy at your peril.


Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:28 | 1812309 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Home ownership is a crummy investment for most Americans whom are hamstrung by uncertain job markets, as well as county, municipal, and state taxes that are increasing all the time. If you own a home and are not using it to produce income, you are better off leasing where you can stay mobile and liquid, says I.

Anyway - pass the peas suckers

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:30 | 1812335 devo
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I agree, 100%.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:36 | 1812386 Taterboy
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Many people stay mobile by living in their car.

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