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Meet The New Head Of The New York Fed's Plunge Protection Team

Tyler Durden's picture


Brian Sack, whom we have all grown to love and loathe, and whose mysterious Citadel trade tickets seemingly out of nowhere have prevented financial meltdowns on more than one occasion, may be leaving us next Friday, but that does not mean the Plunge Protection Team will remain headless. Meet Brian's replacement: Simon Potter, who before joining the NY Fed was... assistant professor of economics at UCLA, Johns Hopkins University, New York University and Princeton University and who " has written extensively on nonlinear dynamics over the business cycles. Recent topics have included forecasting the probability of recession, large panel forecasting models, modeling structural change and inflation expectations." So now we have a Keynesian economics professor with an expertise in "modeling inflation expectations" in charge of the S&P. Swell.

From the NY Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced today that Simon M. Potter, executive vice president and co-head of the Research and Statistics Group, has been named the new head of the Markets Group by New York Fed President William C. Dudley. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also selected Mr. Potter as Manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA). Mr. Potter will begin his new roles on June 30, 2012. He succeeds Brian P. Sack, who steps down on June 29, 2012.


Mr. Potter’s selection comes after a comprehensive search process that considered a large slate of potential internal and external candidates with a wide range of experiences and backgrounds.


“Simon is a trusted colleague with deep expertise in macroeconomics, financial stability and financial markets, and a reputation for candor and objectivity. His analytical strength and practical experience will prove invaluable as he steps into this new role,” said Mr. Dudley.


Mr. Potter currently serves as director of economic research at the New York Fed. He is also the FOMC representative for the Research and Statistics Group, where he leads analytical work related to forecasting and monetary policy and leads FOMC briefings and preparation. Mr. Potter has played a prominent role in the New York Fed’s financial stability efforts, including contributing to the design of the 2009 U.S. bank stress tests and as a member of the international Macroeconomic Assessment Group that supported the Basel Committee’s work to strengthen bank capital standards. Mr. Potter was also a key contributor to the 2011 Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report on Financial Stability, its first annual report.


Mr. Potter, 51, has been at the New York Fed for 14 years. Prior to joining the Bank, Mr. Potter was assistant professor of economics at the University of California, Los Angeles. He holds a bachelor’s degree and a master’s degree from Oxford University, United Kingdom, and a doctorate in economics from the University of Wisconsin.


James J. McAndrews, executive vice president, will assume sole leadership of the Research and Statistics Group, and has been appointed associate economist of the FOMC.

And Simon's bio:

Simon M. PotterSimon M. Potter is an executive vice president, director of economic research and co-head of the Research and Statistics Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He also serves as an associate economist for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Mr. Potter is responsible for constructing analytical tools for economic forecasting and monetary policy analysis, and leading FOMC briefings and preparation for the Bank president. Mr. Potter has played a prominent role in the New York Fed’s financial stability efforts, including contributing to the design of the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program and as a member of the Bank for International Settlements Macroeconomic Assessment Group that supported the Basel Committee’s work to strengthen bank capital standards. Mr. Potter also managed the team producing the first Financial Stability Oversight Council Annual Report on Financial Stability.

Before being named executive vice president in January 2010, Mr. Potter served as a senior vice president in the domestic research function. He joined the Bank in June 1998 as an economist and was named an officer of the New York Fed in January 2004. From April 2011 through July 2011, Mr. Potter worked at the Financial Stability Oversight Council.

Prior to joining the Bank, Mr. Potter was an assistant professor of economics at UCLA. He has also taught at Johns Hopkins University, New York University and Princeton University. His main research area is applied time series analysis using Bayesian methods. He has written extensively on nonlinear dynamics over the business cycles. Recent topics have included forecasting the probability of recession, large panel forecasting models, modeling structural change and inflation expectations.

Mr. Potter holds a bachelor’s degree and a master’s degree from Oxford University, United Kingdom, and a doctorate from the University of Wisconsin.


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Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:35 | 2547856 RacerX
RacerX's picture

This is like a cinderblock life preserver, no?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:36 | 2547859 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

He'll need Dumbledorf or Bumblefuck to fix these problems!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:43 | 2547875 Popo
Popo's picture

This guy wasn't even a full professor.  Perhaps it's getting hard to find fully-accredited soulless-traitors who are willing to throw their countrymen under the bus for the good of the cartel.


Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:44 | 2547914 mcguire
mcguire's picture

its worse... this golum has been hanging out in the Fed dungeouns since 1998...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:51 | 2547935 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



From the Pound & Pence last night...


Tyler Durden: And you must be Potter. Look, darling, Simon Potter. The deadliest bidder since Wild Brian Sack, they say. What do you think, darling? Should I hate him?
Marla: You don't even know him.
Tyler Durden Yes, but there's just something about him. Something around the eyes, I don't know, reminds me of... me. No. I'm sure of it, I hate him.

hedgeless_horseman: [to Potter] He's drunk.

Tyler Durden: In vino veritas.
["In wine is truth" meaning: "When I'm drinking, I speak my mind"]

Simon Potter: Age quod agis.
["Do what you do" meaning: "Do what you do best"]

Tyler Durden: Credat Judaeus apella, non ego.
["The Jew Apella may believe it, not I" meaning: "I don't believe drinking is what I do best."]

Simon Potter: [fondels his iPAD's <GO> key] Eventus stultorum magister.
["Events are the teachers of fools" meaning: "Fools have to learn by experience"]

Tyler Durden: [gives a Cheshire cat smile] In pace requiescat.
["Rest in peace" meaning: "It's your funeral!"]

Sheila Bair: Come on boys. We don't want any trouble in here. Not in any language.

Tyler Durden: Evidently Mr. Potter is an educated man. Now I really hate him.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:53 | 2547966 VulpisVulpis
VulpisVulpis's picture

Wow, Tombstone. Big ups to you, sir.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:14 | 2548062 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Simon Potter's great-grandfather is one Henry F. Potter.  Learn more about him here:

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:56 | 2548204 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Are you sure he's not the guy that took over for Col. Blake on the TV series MASH?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 18:52 | 2549048 RECISION
RECISION's picture

There has got to be a joke about Harry Potter and magical levitation in there somewhere...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:54 | 2547968 Zaydac
Zaydac's picture

First time I've seen Marla's name for years. Perhaps I read the wrong threads.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:12 | 2548054 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

looks like a younger jerry sandusky

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:19 | 2548096 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

golden showers

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:23 | 2548107 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

no, it is b/c anyone who looked at your account and your posting would immediately see you are mrPhoneyBaloney

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:54 | 2548174 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



Real big ears.  Should at least B useful 4 something in banking, stk market, etc.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:34 | 2548378 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

it would not s'prise slewie if the guy i was addressing has a political agenda-reason for flattering the site and the poster in such an obsequious manner  (hint:  mittens supporter);  but that is only my uneducated early guess...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:37 | 2548389 TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

The better for Lloyd to grab him with.

Now if his head was a touch flatter, there would be a place to balance a Krug Clos Du Mesnil, whilst being serviced.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:31 | 2548344 exartizo
exartizo's picture

Dulcis. Ego revera sicut Latine!

Nicely put together. The subtle nuances of the piece are very interesting. Much more than meets the eye.


Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:49 | 2547944 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

It was never about accredation... Dudley says it all...

“Simon is a trusted colleague..."

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:09 | 2548040 prains
prains's picture

incredibly large foreheads are very trustworthy features

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:21 | 2548103 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Perfect Fed lackey......

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:57 | 2548200 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



Man, he looks older than 51.   Must be the stresses of crony revolving door academia.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:02 | 2548225 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

"Recent topics have included forecasting the probability of recession, large panel forecasting models, modeling structural change and inflation expectations."

Let's see here, forecasting the probability of recession, large panel models, and modeling inflation expectations... so how's that been working out for you?

Yeah, nobody has ever figured those questions out either (and as we all know from our research, aggregate demand really only has a 0.4 correlation coefficient when compared with the magniutude of stimulus- Ha, Ha, Ha), but the muppets will never figure that out... HIRED !

Let me take you over to our Maiden Lane Faculty Lounge, so you can meet the guys.


Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:20 | 2548097 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

fuck all bankers and their bitch owned politicians...
Silver is on sale biatches!!!!!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 18:58 | 2549057 DosZap
DosZap's picture

This guy wasn't even a full professor

Neither is Obiewan

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:04 | 2548013 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

 so much for "Inflation targeting is illegal according to theFederal Reserve’s mandate.  Stable prices means no increase, not an intentional 3% rise. " Etc etc etc

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:12 | 2548294 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

It should not be called inflation targetting.   It should be called counterfeiting restraint.  All counterfeiters know that too much blows their cover.   Just enough and the serfs don't know the difference they just wake up wondering why gasoline costs so much and blame it on some cave dwelling terrorist.   In the meantime back in Hawaii, Larry Ellison (a key beneficiary of cheap counterfeited credit) buys Lanai.  Sorry native Hawaiians, you weren't part of the counterfeiting first spender scheme.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:41 | 2547867 Jay Gould Esq.
Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:38 | 2547883 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

All this dude needs to know is how to hit the "BUY" button next to the porn screen.  Forget the academic qualifications.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:56 | 2547984 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

C'mon Simon, make us close GREEN today.  I dare you!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:37 | 2548397 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Christ, another academic, oh well, we are screwed.....

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:36 | 2547861 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"deep expertise in macroeconomics"

Too bad he has no experience in anything reality related.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:41 | 2547878 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

anyone with "deep expertise in macroeconomics" would shut the fed down

instead, the keynesian academic brainwashing has caused tools like this guy to forget basic math and that there is NEVER enough FRNs in existence to pay off all debt plus interest in the economy, therefore putting a death sentence on the value of the fiat currency from the start

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:42 | 2547896 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, it certainly is an out of bounds "aggregate" in desperate need of attention.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:42 | 2547899 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

"deep understanding of macroeconomics" is a contradiction of terms.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 20:24 | 2549310 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

These economists/academics remind me of the space shuttle engineers. All fucking certain of their little calculations, creating this ungodly huge machine, until a little O-Ring goes and tells the truth.

ZH is like the geeky little engineer back in the corner trying to point out that the seal is gonna fail and then...Ka-Boom. Sometimes it sucks being right.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:21 | 2548101 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

wait a sec, let me slip on my 'thingamajigs"...just a moment....

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:36 | 2547862 TheDarkKnight
TheDarkKnight's picture

'Mr. Potter' better have some magic up his sleeve or something

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:38 | 2547882 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

950 DVD porn collections!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:14 | 2548065 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

its worse......his collection is chart porn

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:17 | 2548079 magpie
magpie's picture

...which makes it right to use TA on porn pron, doesn't it ?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:36 | 2547866 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

great another academic..with no skin in the game..hopefully mittens will get in and appoint some buisness people..

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:15 | 2548304 ITrustMyGut
ITrustMyGut's picture

that was /sarc... right?


*mumbles and lights the bo.... fuse*

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:37 | 2547871 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

THrow him of the freedom tower and see how he plunges!
If he's okay, he can have the job.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:42 | 2547894 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Hmm, interesting concept the "freedom tower"...

If you survive the fall you are free to go.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:48 | 2547941 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Or get a all the bailout money you need if your a TBTF!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:41 | 2547873 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Looks like a nice enough guy. Give him a chance boys and girls. I'm sure he means well.


Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:54 | 2548476 rambo1028
rambo1028's picture

Meet the new boss....took the words right outta my mouth CD!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:39 | 2547884 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

He has the face of a plunger

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:43 | 2547902 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I was thinking more along the lines of "Mad Men." Looks like a holdover from the era.

I bet he sounds like Joe Friday.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:55 | 2547982 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

I just hope he doesn't decide to model swimsuits. My eyes would never recover.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:42 | 2547886 docj
docj's picture

Well, the newbie better get to cracking pronto if he's going to get the 1335 floor fixed on the S&P before the close!

Heh heh heh.

That said, was I the only person who thought, looking at that picture, that Bill Maher's better-looking, less smarmy and God-hoping less full-of-himself younger brother had been put in charge of the PPT?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:39 | 2547888 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture


Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:41 | 2547890 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Mayeb he's borrowing this from Cramer. He only needs the Triple Buy button:

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:01 | 2548231 moonstears
moonstears's picture

Thanks ptoemmes, I was stuck there an hour "pushing buttons"! It's a trap!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:43 | 2547906 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Tyler, I think there was a omission in that article/post.  I didn't see what position he previously had at Goldman Sachs.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:45 | 2547917 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Nah, he's pure, never had a real job in his life.

Him and Benron are going to have lots of academic war-stories to share.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:43 | 2547907 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Great. Just what we need. Another "academic" from Princeton. He'll join in the fine tradition of Woodrow Wilson and Ben Bernanke - that fine tradition, of course, is the ongoing subjection of the many to a few bankers and otherwise wealthy dicks.

Actually, I'd love to be in his position. He can run around all day and begin the announcement of his decisions with the opening phrase "Simon says".

"Simon says, prepare plunger for protection of equity markets!"

"Simon says, must not let S&P close in red!"

See what fun it would be?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:43 | 2547908 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Just another egghead helping the maggots rip us off.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:43 | 2547911 TheClub55
TheClub55's picture

"Modeling inflation expectations"... what a joke, I am betting the models are off by several standards deviations more often than not and he'll never know the reason why.  Another person from academia that knows little of how the real world works.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:46 | 2547933 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Yes!  But has he ever had to meet a payroll?!  No?  I didn't think so!  Dumb Shit!



Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:45 | 2547918 Kastorsky
Kastorsky's picture

what happend to "citi group economic surprise index"? 

is it so ugly they had to remove it from bloomberg?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:45 | 2547923 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture


Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:49 | 2547938 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Yes, it's time for marital law indeed.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:45 | 2547919 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Looks like a Brit to me.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:45 | 2547920 stock trout
stock trout's picture

Welcome to Potter's Field.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:00 | 2548003 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture


Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:45 | 2547924 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

Down 190...Whataya waiting for Potter, BUY IT UP MAN!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:47 | 2547928 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

What the fuck....this dude has NO desk experience and is an academic.

Seems like some sort of quant wannabe. This is going to end well.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:28 | 2548121 kralizec
kralizec's picture

An academic from Madison...


Thu, 06/21/2012 - 16:31 | 2548657 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Complete set-up for the fail.  Market's going down.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:46 | 2547931 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture



Liquidity Effects of the
Events of September 11, 2001

James J. McAndrews and Simon M. Potter


The episode(sept. 11, 2001) highlighted the usefulness
of the discount window and of intraday
lending by the central bank as tools for
managing marketwide demands for liquidity.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:47 | 2547932 negative rates
negative rates's picture

PRINCTON? Drop the oars and man the buckets, were goin down fast here people!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:48 | 2547936 Terrorist
Terrorist's picture

Looks like he needs a good "pantsing".

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:49 | 2547940 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Ah, an academic-  THAT will fix the problem.......

51???  Dude,  you look 73-  lighten up, Francis- come out of the basement now and then......

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:50 | 2547948 nomorebuyins
nomorebuyins's picture

They have a new scapegoat, sell sell sell!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:50 | 2547952 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture


Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:51 | 2547953 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Like putting a blind chimpanzee in the pilot's seat of a 747.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:14 | 2548064 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

Not really, because, I give the chimp a 1-2% chance of success, you know blind squirrel theory.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:51 | 2547955 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

I'm sure the market will soon be in the pink after his appointment.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:52 | 2547956 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Silver breaking price lows (closing basis) How many folks jumped into the pool long, with those multi level margin reductions and at what point does the CFTC spring the trap ? Anyone any thoughts ?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:55 | 2547977 Kastorsky
Kastorsky's picture

very few.

comex is dying.

brain owners are in phys.

and those who did comex deserve to be comexed. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:12 | 2548055 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Speaking of phys.  has anyone had any bad experiences in the past few years doing an instance credit card purchase of phys at Apmex or any other firms on one of those huge price swing days ? Have they ever tried to renig on the price at which the purchase was made (intra-day) on a day when prices spiked much higher by close?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:00 | 2547958 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Gooble-gobble, gooble-gobble! We accept him! One of us! One of us!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:53 | 2547959 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Wait, I thought Jim Varney was dead.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:52 | 2547961 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Meet the new (Dick)head of the NY Fed's PPT.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:53 | 2547967 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

I wonder if he has a model for the Second American Revolution?

Nah... probably not on his agenda.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:58 | 2547993 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

still to wear a red coat but instead of banging a drum, banging a keyboard

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:54 | 2547971 ActionFive
ActionFive's picture

Mr. Potter holds a bachelor’s degree and a master’s degree from Oxford University, United Kingdom, and a doctorate from the University of Wisconsin.


OK, but what are his credentials in the illuminati?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:58 | 2547991 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture


Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:16 | 2548011 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Bottom(s) up?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:30 | 2548124 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

He knows a guy who knows a guy who doesn't cares about anybody else.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:55 | 2547978 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Another PhD of Voodoo Magic.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:59 | 2548002 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

I think you mean Voodoo Economics. Voodoo Magic actually works.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:10 | 2548045 Satan
Satan's picture

Hey, chicken blood and Voodoo dolls have gotten me through some tough times.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:56 | 2547983 RobD
RobD's picture

Potter? Wasn't the evil banker in It's a Wonderful Life named Potter? You can't make this shit up lol.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:59 | 2547986 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture of perspective economics.....Jim Sinclair.


No worries. They'll do it until they can't. Be right.....Sit tight.



Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:57 | 2547988 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

we need simon peter and we get simon potter?

great!  fabulous!

tyler:  what is B.S...ackattack gonna dooo?  is it true that he may be ex-patting to lizzy-land to help markCarney off-load canadian resources to the corpo-fascisit elites ever more cheaply?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:56 | 2547989 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

51 ??????......Looks like Tim Geithners grandfather

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:59 | 2547998 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

Crap! Now I have to change the 10 of Spades image in my card deck... being produced for distribution to the masses when TSHTF/TEOTWAWKI gets here so the proles will know what to do with their spare lengths of rope.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:02 | 2548017 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Yeah, but he looks creepier than Brian.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:05 | 2548027 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Oh dear. Another one with an unshakeable faith in "cycles". Same old can kicking singing a song and saying a prayer that massive growth is just around the corner. Keynsian? Maybe the old fashioned Keynes - He doesn't sound like a fan of Krugman, but anyone who has been at the NY Fed for 14 years must be dumb, deaf and blind to the real world. "Forecasting the probability of recession" is a funny topic, considering we're in one and the guy hasn't noticed.

Weird coincidence that a friend of mine (Knowing my interest in Bayes) showed me Thomas Bayes' grave the other day. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:07 | 2548028 reader2010
reader2010's picture

All social sciences are NOT sciences because they are merely opinions. The entire Third Estate are taught to take the shit for granted.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:06 | 2548029 michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

Since Simon will likely read this article and comments, here are some economic considerations for him to think about :

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:06 | 2548030 michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture


Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:07 | 2548031 michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture


Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:10 | 2548044 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Chicago and Yes at the end.

What's not to like. This old hippie can now die happy. :)

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 18:26 | 2548995 michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

Thank you.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:11 | 2548047 g3h
g3h's picture

Anyone with slight academic background knows "assistant professor" is someone who did not make tenure.

That is it.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:13 | 2548053 riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

I am a slow learner but just figured out why the market is so important. Without the market inflation would be raging. The market facilitates capital investment in the belief of growth. Companies subsidize product costs by using capital raised from the market. This lowers end consumer prices as companies try to first grow revenue with promise of scale of economies and better margins down the road. If the growth isnt there margins become real and prices rise. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:49 | 2548149 Convolved Man
Convolved Man's picture

You neglected metaphysical tools:


  • Incantations
  • Seances
  • Ouija boards
  • Reading entrails
  • Magic 8 ball
  • Great cycles
  • Astrology
  • Sacrificial offerings
  • Fuzzy woolly bears


Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:37 | 2548396 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

When the going gets tough, we resort to superstitions.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:40 | 2548407 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Whoa. That uses a lot of maths with strange symbols huh?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 18:22 | 2548990 michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

You left out the Hubbert Curve Transform and
Peak Resource Small Signal Analysis Scientific Methodologies.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 18:23 | 2548991 michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture


Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:13 | 2548059 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Any relation to " Herman Munster"?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:56 | 2548201 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey Y/C!

was thinking of you yesterday!  L0L!!!  you ok? 

i may actually be learning something: 

  1. tyler sez on tues that wed is credit index options expiry
  2. slewie writes that there in no underlying on index options (the index cannot be put or called;  it is a casino wheel, not a security)
  3. then i see what happened to the dollar yesterday (~12:15) Markets - Chart for U.S $ INDEX (NYBOT:DX)(this is when you came into my mind:  holishitoli!  i hope Y/C can get an ambulance...)
  4. then i have the thought:  CREDIT!  like tyler sez...? 
  5. so i'm seeing banksters doing double dojos in FX on credit option day and tyler's summary is basically:  wtf?
  6. and today we see what no QE means to markets;  CREDIT markets!  risk0ff and perhaps more of a goldilocksCrisisTM for prez0 to <nudge> angela <about doing the right thing here>  ?  L0L!!!
  7. and great news for financing slewie and youieSA... stay tooned!
Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:14 | 2548063 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

I'm going long the night before he takes over because you just know they are going to show how runs the place on his first day. I'm thinking 30 ES points are in the bag! Easy money!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:15 | 2548067 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

contributing to the design of the 2009 U.S. bank stress tests

I like this guy already!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:17 | 2548073 New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

Ahhh,... OXFORD!   Brain washed, rinsed, hung out to dry and rinsed again.   He'll make a fine stooge, but I'm not sure about his drinking habits.   However,he reminds me of one of the intermarried bunch from Diddywah, a few miles down the river from where I grew up.   Of course we shit in that river, and they drank it.  I wonder just where he hails from?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:17 | 2548081 HD
HD's picture

Tyler - perhaps you should send Mr. Potter a Zero Hedge T-Shirt.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:19 | 2548095 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Where's that fucktard Robo to suck this guy's cock?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:23 | 2548108 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

He better get to work....this thing is headed south fast. Ben may get his chance to print sooner than he thought.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:55 | 2548197 Benjamin Glutton
Benjamin Glutton's picture

seems I read somewhere that CPI sample period is July through August. would this not be a counterproductive time to initiate a pop in inflation?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:29 | 2548122 Convolved Man
Convolved Man's picture

Geezz, he's 10 years older than Brian Sacks.

Probably need to replace the kinetic interface on the POMO market maninpulating perceptatron with a joystick.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:40 | 2548154 Conman
Conman's picture

Brain ball-sacks still holding the reigns, well get to see his work around 3 id say. 3:30 if he really wants to make it known hes around.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:41 | 2548156 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

"Mr Potter also has expierience at lying,cheating and grand scale theft,so he will fit in nicely".

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:43 | 2548164 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Harry Potter would have been a better choice.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:47 | 2548177 JR
JR's picture

Plunge protection for the stock market limits the wealth creation by some investors and channels that potential into the accounts of others, i.e., stopping some from making money and manipulating profits for others.  It temporarily covers up many of the mistakes and economic crimes of the FED, such as ZIRP.

Central banking control, says Michael S. Rozeff (retired economics professor), “is a dagger in the heart of a capitalistic or free market economy.” In a blog post today, Rozeff identifies powerful reasons why ZIRP is especially bad for the US economy.

"For ZIRP to go on for six years is unbelievable in a country that supposedly stands for free markets,” he said, referring to the FED announcement that “it would hold the short-term overnight rate to near ZERO percent for another 1.5 years.

“ZIRP is making evident that the FED has a huge credibility gap.”

Why does a zero interest rate policy hurt the economy? Here are some of Rozeff’s reasons:

 “In the first place, ZIRP is a bank bailout policy. It supplies banks liberally with reserves. This keeps alive zombie banks and other financial institutions that should fail. It allows banks to continue policies that should be abandoned. This is a drag on wealth creation.

 “Second, ZIRP causes the government sector to enlarge. The federal government is more likely than the private sector to take advantage of low short-term rates in order to borrow and finance itself, as the private sector typically uses longer-term sources. Under ZIRP, Japan's government built out uneconomic roads and transport systems. This spending didn't stimulate economic growth, since scarce capital went to uneconomic projects. The U.S. fights uneconomic wars and wastes its capital that way, for example. It continues to subsidize the housing sector. All such activity is a drag on wealth creation.

 “In all cases of government borrowing and spending, there is another offset which is that business firms and taxpayers both adjust their investment and spending downwards because they know that the future burden of taxes will rise in order to pay off debt. Higher taxes discourage wealth creation.

 ZIRP reduces nominal interest rates while monetary inflation keeps on going or rises. This produces negative real rates of return. Savers are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Their real income from saving goes down. When they look at stocks and bonds, they find that the prospective returns are low, because their prices have been bid up due to interest rates having been kept low.  This discourages saving and thus investment in risky enterprises. It encourages both consumption and investment in goods whose storage keeps up with inflation and preserves wealth. These do not produce economic growth. The latter depends on WEALTH CREATION, which means the discovery of and investment in profitable forms of activity.

 ZIRP means that a centrally-planned and centrally-administered interest rate has replaced or substantially influenced or displaced the free market. The market for loanable funds is distorted. In the short to medium term, people expect the low interest rates to persist, but in the long term they figure that the policy will eventually end and interest rates rebound to normal levels. This has got to affect what they invest in and how they finance those investments. Many investors will be expecting stocks and bonds eventually to decline. Others will be selling them over time against that eventuality. But yet others will be buying because interest rates are so low. The resulting confusion means that asset prices provide very noisy and uncertain signals of long-term value. This is going to distort the investment decisions made by company managers. Overall, it will discourage private sector investment and wealth creation. This is another reason why ZIRP tends to enlarge government borrowing and spending relative to private sector borrowing and investment. ‘

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:07 | 2548252 q99x2
q99x2's picture

After the FED buys up all the corporations they will spark hyper-inflation and render the dollar worthless. If they can that is a likely course of action to take over the world.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:10 | 2548282 wackyquacker
wackyquacker's picture

"but George, they'll vote with Potter otherwise!"

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:27 | 2548340 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

... has written extensively on nonlinear dynamics over the business cycles ...

So at least he's noticed that business cycle dynamics are nonlinear ... that's encouraging. By the time he also notices that they're neither logarithmic, parabolic, hyperbolic, asymptotic or based on the physics of Black Holes he should be just about ready for a de luxe retirement package.

Potts, old boy, I can tell you with crystalline certainty that you'll never find the Magic Equation you seek because ...

It's not only nonlinear ...

It doesn't fucking exist!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:46 | 2548439 ali-ali-al-qomfri
ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

'Plunge Protection team'.... so sorry, can't help but visualize a butt plug. sorry.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:50 | 2548458 localpacific
localpacific's picture

lol great post ZH but who doesnt love the PPT it can help predict some profitable plays ...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:59 | 2548496 exartizo
exartizo's picture

Basically it's all about smoothing volatility in the Dow and S&P.

All of their models are designed to prevent speculators from gaining the upper hand in the markets.

Speculators are seen as a destabilizing force in markets, as well as the "gatekeepers" to potential "chaos" and anarchy in the financial markets.

Isn't that right Mr. Potter?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 16:17 | 2548601 sansnobel
sansnobel's picture

Another government shill suckling at the power teat.  Worthless piece of shit!!!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 17:06 | 2548796 BankRiot
BankRiot's picture

Mindless academics are the easiest to throw under the bus.

Assume crash positions.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 19:16 | 2549117 chump666
chump666's picture

The NY Fed is rogue.  Audit the madmen and find that they have been directly funding the ECB ad infitum

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