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Mega Millions Lottery Pattern Generator "Hot Tip"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the Mega Millions jackpot hitting $500 million, there are those hoping they can still get lucky with 1 in 176 million odds, following a rumor that Greece has used IMF (that coming from US Taxpayers) bailout cash to buy out the entirely ticket inventory and slowly but surely pretend it is growing its economy, even as the money ends up in some private villa in the Aegean. So for those lucky ones who have gotten tickets but have yet to pick numbers, and since in this bizarro world past performance is absolutely a guarantee of future repeat occurrence (but please neither try nor quote us on this at home kids), here is the full breakdown of the white ball distribution in all Mega Millions lotteries since June 2005. If past is prologue, a selection of numbers 48, 36, 53, 12 and 51, and Megaball 36 should do the trick, as these are the ones that have been selected for most in the past 6 years. And no, we have not conducted any serious statistical p-value or other analysis on this data. We just know that the Chairman wants as many people to have as much fiat in their pockets as possible: after all what better way to increase the velocity of money than everyone suddenly being a lottery millionaire, and any possible way to front run the Fed should be fully embraced. Because Mega Millions is the one place where nobody expects the Chairman to manipulate the final outcome. At least not yet.

White ball frequency distribution:

Mega Ball distribution:

h/t Matt

 

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Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:47 | 2301191 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Shame you don't have the balls to do the statistics.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:49 | 2301209 redpill
redpill's picture

Lick my megaballs!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:56 | 2301235 brewing
brewing's picture

so you're sain there's a chance...

http://youtu.be/KX5jNnDMfxA

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:04 | 2301267 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

$540 million peoples

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:06 | 2301276 maxmad
maxmad's picture

540 million soon to be worthless dollars...

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:12 | 2301285 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

313,000 AGE's, give or take a few.

Scrooge McDuck fer real, bitchez.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:25 | 2301327 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I would totally swim in it.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:52 | 2301603 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

28 is due.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 20:46 | 2302412 rcintc
rcintc's picture

Overdue

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:28 | 2301343 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Killed with CASH!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4FPYcH3HC0

Or alternatively, Peter Griffin learns cartoon physics isn't always real:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMyk7MXsseg

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:35 | 2301551 johnQpublic
Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:11 | 2301290 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Is Rhode Island part this lottery???
Woopsy.....

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-27/providence-bankruptcy-seen-a...

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:13 | 2301296 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

Aw, that'll still be enough to buy a loaf of bread a few years from now!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:18 | 2301310 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

It would be in assets so fast my head would spin....

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:23 | 2301322 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

As much as everyone wants to ridicule those who play the lottery, in less than 35 hours, some douche bag is going to hit the big time in a big fucking way.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:26 | 2301330 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

My pants will be loaded with shit should the ZH predicted numbers be that ticket.  He would be a Zero Douche Bag Hedge.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:29 | 2301348 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, and it gets split by 50 ZHers.

That would be PRICELESS.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:38 | 2301379 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

and when asked at the press conference what each plan on doing with the money, they all give the same response....stacking physical, buying guns and ammo, farms, etc.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 22:59 | 2302641 John Wilmot
John Wilmot's picture

...and 500 million FRNs go into circulation stamped "End the Fed"

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 03:00 | 2302830 dubbleoj
dubbleoj's picture

cant wait, its gonna be so easy to pay off my loans when i transfer my foreign funds in

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:12 | 2301480 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

I just bought a ticket at one of those WAWA machines.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:43 | 2301805 Vagabond
Vagabond's picture

The lottery is a net drain on the public.  Ignore the circus act.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:06 | 2301269 maxmad
maxmad's picture

So the real question is can the winner get paid in whatever currency they want?  Yuan?  Brazilian real?  rupee?  trident gum? 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 20:32 | 2302367 RussellChester8
RussellChester8's picture

my friend's sister makes $74/hr on the computer. She has been out of a job for seven months but last month her check was $17871 just working on the computer for a few hours. Read more on this site .... http://bit.ly/wYpMrv

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:53 | 2301222 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ The Alarmist

A quick-and-dirty glance from this AMATEUR in statistics does not show me any unusual distributions on either chart.

I would presume that the folks running the lottery would have some really good statisticians on the payroll to make sure that no one can game the system.  IMO.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:00 | 2301246 redpill
redpill's picture

Just to make sure I had the best chance possible, I bought TWO tickets with the 12 36 48 51 53 Mega36 sequence! I'z so f'n smarts!@

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:23 | 2301313 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Whether someone buys a ticket or not; the odds of winning are approxiamtely the same: .00000000001  vs  .00000000000 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:47 | 2301587 slyhill
slyhill's picture

or is that infinitely different, as in something vs. nothing?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:01 | 2301636 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Tell me, do you feel lucky? Caution, lottery pipedream spoiler alert is ON.

http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/medical.htm

NOAA puts the odds of an American human (310 million) being hit by lightening at 1 in a million, noting 280 victims struck in 2011. The MegaMillion® winning odds are 1 in 176 million, or 176X less likely to win than being struck by lightening ((in one (1) year if that really matters)).

An enlightening perspective? At least with the jackpot over $352 million ($176MM x 2), the mathematical expectation is fair and a two dollar bet is at least in line with the payoff odds. Not until the pot is at least $176 million is a one dollar bet "fair" to a player. At $528 million, a three dollar is "reasonable".

Are the real odds of winning the same whether you buy a ticket or not?

After establishing residency in Florida, if I win, I'll have a Bermuda Corporation  turn in the winning ticket after I buy the corporation through my Roth IRA. Or some stunt to that tax efficient effect.  

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:30 | 2301756 misnomer
misnomer's picture

I'm playing the numbers from the show "Lost", just to be a complete tool...4 8 15 16 23 42

I'm sure to win!  (along with 10,000 other idiots with no life)

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:59 | 2302253 Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

Ditto...

You will win....

...a crash-trip to a seemingly deserted Pacific island.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:15 | 2301303 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

So,even what if,,, Mega is rigged to draw more funds in? Isn't it possible they could use one of their HFT Algo codes and draw numbers that have not yet been issued to allow the pot to go winless (bidless)??? BTFW, how is it that when there's a winning number it's usually one person? Damn! If they were smart, they'd create many millionaire's so they could tax them at variable higher rates, ha ha ha ha!!! ROTFLMFAO!!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:21 | 2301317 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

DoChenRollingBearing

There was a guy a few years ago who bought about 250k worth of tickets.

You set up the ten or so most frequent numbers drawn for the year. Then you rotate them, so first ticket is 1-7, next is 2-8, so on.

The idea is to hit a lot of smaller winnings and get a return on your money.

I think he made like 100k.


Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:30 | 2301755 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hard for me to make an intelligent comment, as I am an amateur nor do I know much about how the lotteries work.

Well good for him (the guy who won the $100k).  I still think that it is going to get ever harder to game the system, just like, apparently, card counting no longer works well at Blackjack in the casinos...

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:57 | 2301848 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

@DoChenRollingBearing

The sponsors are proud of the lengths they go to to ensure their balls are fair. This lottery is run twice a week, so there have been enough drawings since June 2005 to suggest that a fairly uniform set of outcomes would result, given a "fair" set of balls.

I look at this distribution and, like Tyler, I see enough spikes to lead me to wonder if the ball sets are as fair as advertised, with the lone saving grace being that they use multiple ball sets to spread the unfairness around. This is to be expected since lotteries are run for the benefit of politicians and bureaucrats, and spreading unfairness is what they do best.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:25 | 2301326 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

wow $500M!!!  That'll get me 1 share of AAPL!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:27 | 2301334 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

That's nothing. I have a 100 TRILLION zimbabwe note in my pocket at all times.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:37 | 2301376 Agent P
Agent P's picture

I thought you were just happy to see me.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:03 | 2301461 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

i wonder if the winner took the whole sum and tried to buy physiccal if they could?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:06 | 2301467 Willzyx
Willzyx's picture

bust the COMEX

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:13 | 2301487 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

JPM will rehypotheticate it first.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:08 | 2301665 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

I think I need ...

 

Easy enough to rent a medium size rental box truck.

Visit mints around the US, empty coin and pawn shops along the way.

Just get the tow behind car hitch for rental car for a slightly covert approach to mints and shops.

Now that would be the ASE-Team.

"I pity da fool who keeps his cash" - Mr. T

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:37 | 2301791 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

FOFOA once wrote that getting physical gold up to about 50 tonnes or so is do-able, but at 70 - 100 tonnes much harder.  Remember Sprott could not get anyone to sell him 100 tonnes (last I heard anyway).

Let's do some math (round numbers):

-- $200,000,000 (lump sum, taxes paid, approx.) / $1700 = 117,600 oz

-- 117,600 / 24 toz (per kg) = 4900 kg = 4.9 metric tonnes

So, apparently he COULD buy the physical once he got the cash.  EVERYONE is invited to check my arithmetic...

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 18:10 | 2302021 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

32.15 Toz per kg

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:26 | 2301528 derryb
derryb's picture

thanks for charts. Since all numbers have theoretical equal chance, I'm going with the one's who have been drawn the LEAST.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:33 | 2301773 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Odds are still the same as hitting two holes in one on consecutive par 3 holes * times 19.

Go get 'em, Tiger !

 

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 00:29 | 2302738 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

More likely to die in a car wreck on the way to buy a ticket. I'll be skateboarding to the liquor store who posts all their winners.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 00:52 | 2302758 CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

Not true, just because you flipped heads 5 times in a row doesn't mean you have a better chance of rolling tails on your next flip.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 23:01 | 2302643 ACP
ACP's picture

I wonder when CA will demand a cash advance on state taxes so that if you don't have the 10% immediately available, you'll be assessed a 900% penalty and have to forfeit all your earnings and be sent to GITMO for domestic terrorism?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:47 | 2301192 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Lottery = voluntary tax = pinnacle of sheeple fleecing

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:48 | 2301204 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:01 | 2301253 bpj
bpj's picture

Jefferson; "a tax of the willing"

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:12 | 2301294 GenX Investor
GenX Investor's picture

Just think of all the school kidz that will benefit from all this lottery money.  Think of all the teachers they could hire.  Wait a minute - they are laying off teachers, and the public school system couldn't be worse in the past 40 years.  Where is the Gov Moonbeam telling people to buy lottery tickets so their kidz can get an ed-yoo-ma-katchn.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:23 | 2301320 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

In most states, the govt. simply reduced the amount of tax dollars going to education inversely to the amount of money coming in via the lotter/gambling sources.  The tax dollars then went to pay debts for other unsustainable programs, ballooning interest payments, etc.

Education did not benefit and in fact, as we see now, is being harmed by this method of funding.

Just one more example of dishonesty between our elected and the public.

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:05 | 2301466 Hi Ho Silver
Hi Ho Silver's picture
14 YEARS = $14 BILLION FOR TEXAS EDUCATION

http://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Supporting_Education/

 

I don't believe Texas education was receiving a billion a year prior to Lotto to inversely reduce.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:33 | 2301360 Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

They're getting shot in Florida.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:04 | 2301266 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

A tax on the naive

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:10 | 2301476 Hi Ho Silver
Hi Ho Silver's picture

Somebody has to win and it's a damn certainity I won't if I don't buy at least one.

Do I expect to win? No.

But I'll be able to buy a lot of farmland and physical if I do.  That chance is worth a few dollars.  An ounce of silver, probably not.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:41 | 2302194 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Hmmm.... A couple fiatscos for a chance (albeit as great as The Bernank backing the dollar) to buy a shitpile of shiny metal bars, and be interviewed by every "major" media outlet and tell 'em you bought phyzz 'cuz the whole shooting match is going to blow up.

Damn.  I'll get 2 tickets, double my chances to slightly better than becoming the first man to walk on Europa.

I just hope whoever collects is awake, and can get the big message out there.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:25 | 2301328 exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

/Shrug/

The (rapidly declining) marginal value of $1 vs. going from 0 chance of winning to a very small chance of winning

As long as it doesn't cut into my ability to line the local lake with PMs, I'm all for it.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:48 | 2301205 5880
5880's picture

its a cheap call

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:52 | 2301225 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

What's the underlying? 

The EV of a lottery ticket is its price times the % of the aggregate collected by the lottery commission actually paid out as "winnings".  So if the commission collects $500 million and pays out $250 million, the EV of a $1 ticket is $0.50.  It's not a call, it's a contribution.  And the sickos that run 'em link it to some moral high ground like "funding our kids education".

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:58 | 2301240 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Not much difference between that and the Wall Street swinging dicks spending it on blow and hookers and calling it research or entertainment for a client on their taxes.

Just remember, you can net your winnings with your lottery losses for tax purposes. Just keep those lottery ticket stubs for when you're audited.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:05 | 2301608 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Sorry CD - I don't play.  And the choice not to is THE difference between the voluntary tax system (lottery) and the imposed ponzi to which you refer.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:11 | 2301293 i love cholas
i love cholas's picture

@mayhem_korner, you seem like a real know it all prick. relax man have some fun its just the fucking lotto

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:20 | 2301594 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I just hope the folks here who whine about being in the 99% don't contribute to their plight by playing.  But thanks for the tip.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:12 | 2301295 10mm
10mm's picture

It's all about the kids,they love that banter.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:21 | 2301315 tmosley
tmosley's picture

That is an argument against the lottery system, but think about the EV of a ticket bought THIS time.

The after tax payout on the cash option is greater than $173 million, so the jackpot alone produces an EV higher than the cost of the ticket.

As such, this is the only situation in which I will spend a few dollars on a lottery ticket.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:44 | 2301399 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Poisson distribution...you fail to account for the fact that as jackpots increase, so do the number of ticket sales, which increases the probability of multiple winners.  This causes the EV to decline, often below the cost of entry.

That being said, I'd still take half this bitch in a heartbeat!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:36 | 2301555 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I alluded to that in other posts, yes.  This is why people don't attack the problem systematically whenever the after tax jackpot hits $200 million.

I wonder if they release the sales figures?  No idea how many tickets have been bought.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:58 | 2301626 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

That is an argument against the lottery system, but think about the EV of a ticket bought THIS time.

 

Provided there is no chance for multiple winners, a series of 'un-won' lotteries does improve the EV of the next ticket.  Fair point.  But I'm thinking more about the wealth effects if the lottery and all its mechanisms didn't exist at all.  No one can "win" unless a lot of others "lose."  If it was a straight up transfer, fine, buyer beware.  But it's not - there's enormous skimming going on and thus it is a net transfer from private citizens to the state.  All veiled in "you can't win if you don't play."  That's all I'm saying.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:27 | 2301335 Raynja
Raynja's picture

@mayhem, the EV has nothing to do with contributions. It is simply distribution times probability of a winning ticket. If you wanda get fancy you could include the odds of having to split the prize. You would then compare the EV to the price of a ticket.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:51 | 2301600 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

the EV has nothing to do with contributions

 

You apparently have no idea of how casinos make money.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:52 | 2301216 redpill
redpill's picture

True, unless the winner uses the proceeds in some sort of Guy Fawkes scheme, which would be brilliant irony.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:31 | 2301352 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

This would be a great press conference -

Media: "How do you plan on spending your new found wealth?"

Winner: "Technically this isn't wealth but debt to the private Federal Reserve Reserve Bank.  I will be turning these notes into real money - or gold and silver."  Extends middle finger tothe cameras, "SUCK MY FUCKING DICK BERNANKE.  I'M GOING HUNT BROTHERS ONYOUR PONZI!"

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:40 | 2301387 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

While wearing a zerohedge cap.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:47 | 2301194 Out9922
Out9922's picture

28 Mega Ball is due!!!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:12 | 2301484 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Add that to these white balls: 34, 37, 41, 47, 48, and you've got yourself a for sure winnah!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:48 | 2301197 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

shit, those are my numbers

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:50 | 2301212 redpill
redpill's picture

 

I always use my luggage combination, 1-2-3-4-5, and I never win shit.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:57 | 2301236 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Wait, don't you mean you "always" win shit?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:07 | 2301277 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Shit, that's my luggage combination!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:07 | 2301280 Misean
Misean's picture

Everytime I handle your luggage, I win shit....

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:48 | 2301200 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Poor 'ol 28.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:47 | 2301201 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

The only way to make half a billion these days is to steal it... and not all of us work on Wall Street.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:53 | 2301426 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

Nah, this is the age of entitlement. We all deserve it, so the government will provide. Plus, once wind gets out that one or two peolpe won, it will be declared "unfair" to the rest and the 99% will cry even louder. 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:48 | 2301202 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

You have better odds of being abducted by aliens and being probed.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:56 | 2301237 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

sounds Bullish

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:02 | 2301258 Agent P
Agent P's picture

From the eTrade commercial..."You know, your odds of winning that are the same as being mauled by a polar bear and a regular bear in the same day."

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:08 | 2301281 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Should this guy who was attacked by a lion and saved by a bear play then? http://www.paradisepost.com/news/ci_20269991/man-claims-attack-by-lion-saved-by-bear

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:48 | 2301412 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Could you imagine if this happend to Tiger Woods...oh my!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:48 | 2301203 Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

Being from Canada, I have to settle for 50 million dollar lottery winnings as the big time.

So those of you playing this, do you use the numbers that come up most often or play the opposite and use the numbers that don't and are therefore statistically more likely to come up?

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:55 | 2301233 machineh
machineh's picture

If the probability for each ball is a fair coin flip, it makes not the slightest difference whether one chooses the historically most frequent or least frequent numbers. 

For example, after flipping five heads in a row, it's still a 50/50 probability of heads/tails on the next coin flip. A fair coin doesn't get 'overbought' or 'oversold' after a run.

On the other hand, some math-savvy people have been multiple lottery winners. There may be non-random patterns in the numbers, but they are not likely to be as simple as a frequency distribution.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:14 | 2301299 lazarus
lazarus's picture

If enough heads in a row are flipped, say more than eight, it becomes more likely that the coin isn't fair after all. Then I'll bet heads.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:28 | 2301342 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

machineh

I'm not sure. I imagine simply due to wear some balls are heavier than others and rise better. I would also imagine the same holds true with the manufacturing process.

I would also think factors like barometric pressure and atmospheric moisture would effect the balls and machine.

Maybe that probability changes to 49/51 or 48/52.

Next decade or so will probably see information process ing machines with the power to include all the subtle variables and give much higher odds maybe 75-85 chance of winning.

I would imagine some smart fucker could make it work now but if he has he ain't talking.


Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:13 | 2301685 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Somebody already scammed the lottery by painting the inside of the ping pong balls with white paint which made them heavier than the untampered balls, which did get sucked up to be the winners. Since there was nothing done to the winning balls, they passed inspection and the scam wasn't immediately discovered.

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 17:35 | 2301946 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

A coin flip is a binomial experiment, essentially a sample with replacement, while choosing lottery balls is sampling without replacement in a multinomial experiment. Probabilities change as each ball is drawn, but a large number of independent experiments with varied sets of balls gives this all the randomness (1 in 175 million or so odds) that they need to fleece the public out of millions.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 08:32 | 2303076 jiggerjuice
jiggerjuice's picture

False: http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~susan/papers/headswithJ.pdf

Coin tosses are 51%-49%, biased towards the side that starts flipping facing up. Hold a coin heads up and flip it; heads will always be facing up nflips+1 times, and tails will always be facing up nflips-1 times. Therefore, not 50/50.

You're all welcome.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:50 | 2301213 Triggernometry
Triggernometry's picture

Ordered histograms are much more useful, I've been running numbers on megamillions, pick 6, pick 5, and pick 4 since 2009. When you see that ordered histograms of lottery drawings over a decade are not flat, you know something is up. When you compare the top 20 numbers drawn year after year and notice only 2-3 numbers in the top 20 have changed, you know something is really going on.

Crunch the numbers yourself, barely took me more than a half hour on excel, mainly converting and properly de-limiting data.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:25 | 2301321 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

Yeah, some of the frequencies come back a bit low / high. Of course nothing's impossible, but some things are...unlikely.

Or think about it this way: If the null hypothesis is true, and the drawing procedure is perfectly fair, then from the standpoint of likelihoods there is no loss associated with choosing numbers you (falsely) believe are more likely than others. The only downside is that, if others are doing the same, you're accepting a higher likelihood of a split if the numbers do actually come up.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:29 | 2301750 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Great point.  It would be really interesting to see the distribution of the numbers people choose.  I'd be interested in seeing whether seeing the distribution of outcomes would affect people's choices.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:54 | 2301228 user2011
user2011's picture

If people are brave enough to buy greek bonds, why not megamillions ?

 

I am all in for my Washington greenback.   It cost me more to drive than the ticket itself.   It is a no brainer.

 

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:06 | 2301275 Agent P
Agent P's picture

After tax cash value of a $500 million jackpot is somewhere around $250 million...that's a much better haircut than what you get with greek bonds.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:18 | 2301309 lazarus
lazarus's picture

Hell, call it "carried interest" and get it taxed at 15%.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:54 | 2301229 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Screw this. Just put it all on 'Red', then sit back and get ready to count all that fiat. :)

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:55 | 2301230 fourchan
fourchan's picture

rape me! do it and do it again!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:58 | 2301239 What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

The PD banks get to play a similar lottery set up by the Chairman.  Their odds of winning are slightly better.  Also, they get to win much larger jackpots.  Of course, they don't even have to use their own money to play.

Hmm, maybe that's the secret to improving our economy?  Let people print dollar bills that can only be used to buy lottery tickets.  Cut down the number of balls to 5 and tell people to pick 5.  Each winner gets $1MM cash and must publicly state they plan on using the money to loan to new businesses but secretly just pay themself out a fat bonus instead.

Think of the tax revenue!  I don't see how this could possibly go wrong.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:02 | 2301256 aVian
aVian's picture

well do it live ... FUCK IT

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khbel2p7ou0

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:02 | 2301263 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Chairsatan will win.

If I won, I would get the fuck out of North America and build me a nice bunker in South America or something.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:06 | 2301272 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Bye-bye Dollar: BRICS doesn't trust the buck

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=REqrkeonbWc

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:07 | 2301279 tallen
tallen's picture

Lottery=Tax on poor stupid people.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:11 | 2301291 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

As is inflation. 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:27 | 2301332 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Seems that everything out there is designed to take advantage of poor stupid people.....state sponsored gambing...inflation..taxed...debt..iPhones...

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:46 | 2301404 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Hence all of the states legalizing gambling.  As Max Keiser puts it, "The Casino Gulag model will be the model of the US going forward."

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:21 | 2301314 10mm
10mm's picture

Along with the same poor people who buy and hold for retirement in Wall St.Now thats a fuckin lottery/casino.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:13 | 2301287 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

The Lottery, with its weekly pay-out of enormous prizes, was the one public event to which the proles paid serious attention.

It was probable that there were some millions of proles for whom the Lottery was the principal if not the only reason for remaining alive.

It was their delight, their folly, their intellectual stimulant.

Where the Lottery was concerned, even people who could barely read and write seemed capable of intricate calculations and staggering feats of memory.

There was a whole tribe of men who made a living simply by selling systems, forecasts, and lucky amulets.

George Orwell, 1984

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:32 | 2301355 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

 

"Winston had nothing to do with the running of the Lottery, which was managed by the Ministry of Plenty, but he was aware (indeed everyone in the party was aware) that the prizes were largely imaginary. Only small sums were actually paid out, the winners of the big prizes being non-existent persons."

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:25 | 2301732 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Number predictions for winning lotteries or the local three digit "street book" are printed in DreamBooks (per the publishing business). They are available where ever punchcards and tickets for the Irish Sweepstakes are sold. 

I haven't heard much about the Irish Sweepstakes lately. I know it took a knock from excess counterfeit tickets being sold, no doubt inspiring our own Chancellor Bernanke!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:14 | 2301300 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

<----spend $5 on the chance to win $540 million

<----leave $5 in bank only for it to exponentially decrease in buying power as central banks print

 

$389 million cash option - $155 taxes = 234 million = 141,818 ounces of gold = 7,312,500 ounces of silver

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:32 | 2301357 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I'd take 250 tons of silver.

Assuming there was that much somewhere.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:40 | 2301388 i_fly_me
i_fly_me's picture

A gold cube a little more than 2 feet on a side weighing 4 3/4 tons.  You are gonna need a truck and some friends to get it home.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:16 | 2301306 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

pick the underdoggies, BiCheZ! 

they're overdue!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:17 | 2301307 uno
uno's picture

there should be a lottery for the sugar daddy sites

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:19 | 2301311 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Today's US market stock charts actually look like something other than machines are trading. I noticed a few years back a big change in the daily graphs such that the ramps usually occurred during off hours and then were very smooth charts throughout the day. That trend has increased over time. Today looks like the machines are either having more difficulty than usual or they have just stepped off-line. Of course they are likely to ramp up the S&P above 1400 before the close.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:22 | 2301319 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'll use the lucky numbers in my Chinese fortune cookie. When I win it will all go into gold and silver. Maybe some guns and butter too.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:22 | 2301511 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Here, you can use mine. It's only an hour old. 3, 26, 34, 35, 41, 45.

My fortune: "You have an ability to sense and know higher truth."

To that I can only respond, Tu ne cede malis!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:33 | 2301547 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Ludwig?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:27 | 2301337 headless blogger
headless blogger's picture

They should get a national lottery going with tickets costing $30,000,000 each. We would only need 2 million millionaires billionaires to cough it up, to make 60 trillion dollars.  The "state" keeps half to be used to pay off national debt with the remainder used to shut down the military industrial complex and central bankers.

I think these people are so greedy they'd go for it.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:28 | 2301339 dhengineer
dhengineer's picture

And let's not forget the short story called "The Lottery" by Shirley Jackson, written in 1948.  The outcome of that lottery was a little more, um, brutal than a mere cash giveaway.  But it shows that such mindless games bring out the worst in all of us eventually. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lottery

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:29 | 2301344 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Never say never. I won $3 mil in the state lotto. Nothing like pure dumb luck. Best kind there is.

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:38 | 2301377 headless blogger
headless blogger's picture

Did you win with a computer generated ticket or with numbers you chose yourself?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:21 | 2301504 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Computer generated $1 "quick pick" bought on impluse. Nothing but dumb luck. Idiot me went and traded most of it for a bunch of barabous lumps of shiney metal too.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 21:30 | 2302484 VelvetHog
VelvetHog's picture

You are my new hero!  Right on, man!  Sweet!  You just made my day.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:48 | 2301413 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I won free tickets at Chuck E Cheese once. I got to trade them in for some high quality Chinese crap.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:00 | 2301453 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Yo Stackers, where've you been buddy?  Long time, no see.  Whatchu doing this weekend?  Maybe we can hang out.  I got some Knick tickets if you want to go.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:29 | 2301345 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Odds are 1 in 175 million.

So that means if I buy 175 million tickets I'm guaranteed to win $234 million after taxes.  Sounds like a good deal to me.

:o)

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:34 | 2301363 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Unless you have to split it.

That is the risk factor that prevents people from doing just that.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:26 | 2301527 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

And with my luck, it would be a record 50 winners each taking home $700K after taxes...not nearly enough for me to turn around and save Ron Paul's bid for nomination

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:05 | 2301647 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

They won't let you buy up every combination all at once so you would have to fill out 35 million cards (5 games per card) with every combination and stand in front of a machine for about 8 years to get all of your numbers processed.  You can split the cards between a few people and cut down the waiting time.

 

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:31 | 2301354 Richard Whitney
Richard Whitney's picture

The lottery is a voluntary transfer payment from the stupid to the government and elderly.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:33 | 2301546 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Only if one sincerely believes they will/can win, I buy tickets when the pot is large enough but not because I think I can actually win it, the few bucks I lay out are the price I pay for the right to fantasize about wealth, nay, not even wealth but just the first hint of financial security in 54 years of life with none.  A healthy fantasy life is a proven requirement for good mental hygiene, and besides, I still want that castle on Lough Derg with a sexy chauffer who can drive on the left (without a shirt).  For this reason the lottery has tangible utility worth a few bucks to me. 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:34 | 2301364 cameldojo
cameldojo's picture

You were a gangster if you sold a lottery ticket when they called it "the numbers"

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:36 | 2301368 The Paucity of Hope
The Paucity of Hope's picture

The odds of making money on the lottery are about the same as making money on a savings account.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:42 | 2301392 Campagnolo
Campagnolo's picture

Turd Ferguson is telling everybody on his blog that the lottery is manipulated for the big banks also!!...so, everything is manipulated now?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:42 | 2301395 UTICA CLUB XX PURE
UTICA CLUB XX PURE's picture

If I won, I'd /\/\/\/\/\/\---------------------------------

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:50 | 2301595 smiler03
smiler03's picture

You'd build lots of teepees?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:48 | 2301819 Clay Hill
Clay Hill's picture

No silly, that's make a tent in his pants six times a day.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:45 | 2301401 earnulf
earnulf's picture

The cash payout option is like 360 Million dollars, which translates into about 10 Million plus ounces of real money.   That could definately throw the silver manipulation out the window if someone was smart enough to buy physical and demand immediate delivery.     Ah, the things that cloud linings are made of, and it would be funny too!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:49 | 2301415 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

They keep what - 25% of the take?  And they make it a felony for anybody to compete with them.

Sweet. 

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