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Mega Millions Lottery Pattern Generator "Hot Tip"
With the Mega Millions jackpot hitting $500 million, there are those hoping they can still get lucky with 1 in 176 million odds, following a rumor that Greece has used IMF (that coming from US Taxpayers) bailout cash to buy out the entirely ticket inventory and slowly but surely pretend it is growing its economy, even as the money ends up in some private villa in the Aegean. So for those lucky ones who have gotten tickets but have yet to pick numbers, and since in this bizarro world past performance is absolutely a guarantee of future repeat occurrence (but please neither try nor quote us on this at home kids), here is the full breakdown of the white ball distribution in all Mega Millions lotteries since June 2005. If past is prologue, a selection of numbers 48, 36, 53, 12 and 51, and Megaball 36 should do the trick, as these are the ones that have been selected for most in the past 6 years. And no, we have not conducted any serious statistical p-value or other analysis on this data. We just know that the Chairman wants as many people to have as much fiat in their pockets as possible: after all what better way to increase the velocity of money than everyone suddenly being a lottery millionaire, and any possible way to front run the Fed should be fully embraced. Because Mega Millions is the one place where nobody expects the Chairman to manipulate the final outcome. At least not yet.
White ball frequency distribution:
Mega Ball distribution:
h/t Matt
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I'm gonna play the # just as an hommage to ZH - wouldn't it be a chuckle if there were several hundred grand prize winners? (h/t Dave Chappelle)
i got 5 on it, messin with that endo weed
Just dropped a C-note on Mega tickets ......After winning, I'll be in the Adriatic next summer on my yacht Tyler, we'll have some fun in Greece!
I prefer to think of it as 'high risk investments'.
no one could buy all the numbers and still hope to have a profit, because some other lucky stiff will win on a single and that cuts your profit in half, and turns a winner into a loser.
but heres a true story more to the point. the Drexel boys, some smart kids from the University figured out how to win the P6 at the Breeders Cup horse race in November. The P6 is always a big payout, because these are the best horses and longshots are the rule. The thieves found out the satellites didn't post their P6 tickets until the 4th race into the series. One of them worked inside, he broke into the computer after the 4th race, and at that point they only needed the winner of the next two races. So they bought all those, somewhere in the area of a hundred combinations, and keyed out the previous four winners, the races which had already been won.
they were caught for being stupid and greedy. they bought the same winning ticket four times. and they didn't bother to spend a few dollars adding some dummy picks to the lock races just to make it look good. then no one else won, which earned them a bit of scrutiny, as there were mulitiple identical winning tickets. someone noticed this, key-key-key-key-box all-box all, and they were busted.
but for circumstance they would be living large right now.
but half a billion is hardly enough reason to get bernanke out of bed in the morning. and he can print his own.
with the idiots in charge of racing, they could have got away with it for a lifetime if they had any idea what they were doing and if they didnt bet the only pick-6 result of the year people would have been paying attention to !!!!!!!!!!
they also had some bad luck when the longest shot in the classic won and paid $200 , which left them exposed with no clothes
The lump sum payment is based on present value of an annuity with annual payments for 26 years. With interests rates at an all time low, this might be one of the best lump sums anyone might get.
Lump sum all the way, especially when you consider the alternative of some Wall Street boys "investing" the proceeds so you can be paid your annuity payments. Methingks a few payments from now, you'd get a note, "sorry, your money is all gone. . . have a nice day."
what is the lottery discount rate? is it some market rate? I'd think its artificially high so you might be better off taking the annuity and selling it to a financial institution.
The odds might be bad at 1 in 175,000,000 but you still have a better chance at getting rich via MegaMillions than by ethics and hard work in modern America. One of my deepest fears re the lottery is that I will indeed win it, on the day the US dollar becomes worth about as much as the lint in my navel.
Newsflash: Spanish government has sent agents to New England to buy 1.7 million tickets in an attempt to win Mega Millions and close their budget gap
State-sanctioned numbers racket.
Not that I am not going to win it all as the sole holder of the one winning ticket, because I am, but can you imagine the hysteria if it did roll over yet again, or twice? America's first billion dollar lottery jackpot. I would not want to get within a mile of the nearest lottery outlet after Sunday afternoon.
SHIT, THAT WILL BUY ME A LOT OF SILVER!!!!!
Is that a "head and shoulders" pattern I see in that data?
Why not just rig it for another few weeks to get the jackpot over 1bil?? That would be awesome - the Billion Dollar lottery - 4 times a year we create a new billionaire.
Oh wait ..
The pot does not have to be that big. According to Obamanomics all we have to give away is $250,000.00
:)
Mega Millions motto: What the Fuck - Bet a Buck.
With a 500 million dollar win.....I would unload it all into gold......all into the futures market....and stand for the delivery. With a big middle finger, I would smile and say "manipulate this JPM"!
and the MF Global Ghost of larcey-past would get it all from you before you cleared CME's doorposts.
Assuming the number balls are not rigged somehow, those frequency diagrams are meaningless because over time, the frequencies should all converge. It's just that the megamillions or whatever has only been around since 2005, so that's what you end up with as far as frequencies. But since previous lotteries have no effect on current ones, there's no place to go there.
If someone could discern that the amount of paint to make the numbers on a particular ball made it heavier or lighter than other balls, then you might be able to find some advantage. Or, again, if you could discern that somehow the game is rigged, but I doubt that is the case, so sorry, you're out of luck in gaining some edge here.
Do what I do and don't pay any attention to it. And certainly don't play it!
The statistical logic in the post is entirely wrong though, especially if one assumes that the involved time period is long of enough for law of large numbers to hold. In that case, each ball should be drawn more or less same times, so the correct balls to focus on are not the ones that have been drawn many times, they are the ones that have been drawn least times, as they have a higher probability of being drawn this time.
Using this logic, the correct choice would be to have at least three or four out of 1, 5, 14, 16, 17,27, 28, 32, 43, 47, and some other random ones.
Thats only true if the physical ball selection is really equal and random. Small defects/unequal wear could create biases. anyone know the about the actually materials and physical selection process? does each ball weigh exactly the same to very small tolerances?
Today it is around 500 million. Sooner it will be 500 Trillion when Gold hit 20,000
If I win, and take the annuity option, can I open my own bank and derivitize my winnings into a tranch of bonds to sell? Or, can I rehypothecate the $540 million times 100 if I open a bank in London??
What's the present value of the annuity or the discount rate applied to the lump sum? wouldn't you be better off taking the annuity and selling it to an institution that is buying treasuries? I'd think you'd get a fairly low discount rate and higher lump sum than taking the lottery lump sum. anyone done the analysis?
Problem is that if these number pay off ... have to share the jackpot with a bunch of stinkin' zero-hedgers.
Everyone, who buy lottery ticket is a winner because they sell you dreams.
The contrarian view would be to choose those numbers that have hit the least.
If the selection is indeed random, over time all should be equal, meaning those least occuring should be the most likely to occur.
A true statistician (anal retentive) would say all are equally likely, but that doesn't appear to be the case thus far.
Maybe I should just flip a coin?
Where else do you get the chance to be a rich dude for 2 or 3 bucks?
A minute chance, but a chance.
It's entertainment. I buy a few dollars worth when the prize is really big.
I'd still like to see elections for national office turned into lotteries. Proceeds go to pay down the debt.
yeah, didnt a couple celebrities want to be paid in euros a few yrs ago?
a couple hundred million would ease the pain! with the total harp, tarp, sharp, hamp, tramp stimulus programs that we've suffered it would have been better for the fed to just cut a $500k check to each citizen.
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OK, I will buy 1 tkt with the highest frequency distribution, 1 with the lowest, and two with a random mix!
But a safer bet is, When will the Fed realize that it has screwed up? And who will fire Ben?
So, let'e see... if 540 of the people who read this article take T's advice and play these same numbers and this set of numbers wins... That will be 540 new millionaires in the world overnight... Minus the taxes, of course... But still a boost to the economy... So I say... PLAY AWAY!!!
PowerBall wised up and doubled the ticket price to $2. I doubt their ticket sales dropped in half so they are money ahead. I'm sure the megamillions will follow suit and make a ticket to your dreams a double to $2 bucks as well. Ah,,,no inflation here!
Screw guessing. I already know the winning combination. I just looked it up on my crystall ball!
Those charts are useful iff something hinky is going on.
If I had $176,000,000.00 laying around, I'd buy 176,000,000 tickets, one with each unique number/powerball combination and would be guaranteed to double my money (as long as I held the only winning ticket!).